The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.
Why Has Poverty Declined in the US?
English Summary
CATO’s analysis challenges the conventional narrative, arguing that poverty decline in the US predates and was largely driven by market income growth, particularly among African Americans, rather than government programs. The study utilized a revised poverty measure accounting for taxes and benefits, revealing significant reductions in poverty starting in the 1960s before Johnson’s ‘War on Poverty.’ This growth was fueled by rising wages and employment opportunities, not increased reliance on welfare. Consequently, the report suggests focusing on policies that foster economic growth and opportunity, rather than solely relying on expansive social safety nets.
中文摘要
CATO 研究所的分析挑戰了傳統觀點，認為美國貧困率的下降在很大程度上源於市場收入增長，尤其是在非裔美國人中，而非政府計劃。該研究使用了修正後的貧困衡量標準，考慮到稅收和福利，並顯示了在約翰遜的『貧困戰爭』之前，即從 1960 年代開始出現顯著的貧困率下降。這種增長是由於工資和就業機會的提高所驅動的，而非對福利的過度依賴。因此，報告建議著重於推動經濟增長和創造機會的政策，而不是單純依賴龐大的社會保障網絡。
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