As the Iran war reshapes the Middle East, Turkey is poised to expand its regional influence, driven by concerns over Iran’s attempts to redefine regional security dynamics, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Evidence suggests Turkey fears a prolonged conflict and regional instability, leading to increased security partnerships and defense industry cooperation with Gulf states – a move partially motivated by a desire to diversify away from US security guarantees. Furthermore, the conflict is fueling opportunities for Turkey to expand its role in regional connectivity projects, such as trade corridor redesigns and transport networks, exemplified by initiatives like the Iraq Development Road and the Middle Corridor. This expansion is also underscored by the formation of new regional alignments, like the Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Egypt quartet, aimed at shaping post-war geopolitics.
2026-W23
This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.
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2.The US plan for Venezuela won’t work without the rule of law. Here’s how to make progress (Chatham House)
This Chatham House report argues that any successful US strategy for Venezuela hinges on establishing the rule of law, a goal currently unattainable without immediate, coordinated action. The analysis, based on expert consultations, emphasizes the necessity of a multi-stakeholder negotiation process involving the US, the interim government, and international partners to drive incremental reforms. Key to this approach is establishing clear benchmarks and timelines for judicial, commercial, and human rights reforms, directly linked to economic and political development. Failure to prioritize rule of law will render the current US plan ineffective.
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3.Global trade imbalances have changed since the 2008 financial crisis. Now they reflect new risks (Chatham House)
This Chatham House analysis argues that global trade imbalances have fundamentally shifted since the 2008 financial crisis, moving beyond debt-fueled consumer excess to reflect new geopolitical and competitive risks. Evidence shows a narrowing US deficit alongside a rising Chinese surplus, driven by shifts in energy production and China’s ascendancy in global manufacturing. The primary risks now center on intensifying competition from Chinese firms, particularly impacting European industries like automotive and machinery, alongside the broader geopolitical implications of China’s economic dominance. Policy strategies must adapt to address these evolving imbalances, considering exchange rate adjustments and fostering industrial resilience.
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4.
Chatham House analysis suggests Peru’s historically volatile political landscape poses a significant threat to its ongoing economic boom. Despite averaging 5.5% growth between 2002 and 2022, the country’s frequent presidential transitions, often triggered by impeachment and political infighting, create instability. The upcoming election between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez highlights this risk, with Fujimori’s repeated near-wins and the potential for continued political maneuvering by defeated candidates like López-Aliaga a key concern. Recent constitutional reforms, including the creation of a bicameral legislature, aim to reduce party fragmentation, but the deeply entrenched political traditions and ongoing corruption allegations suggest continued instability. This situation demands careful monitoring of the election’s outcome and its potential impact on Peru’s economic trajectory.
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5.
The 2026 NPT Review Conference failed to reach consensus, marking the third consecutive unsuccessful outcome and signaling a significant deterioration in global efforts towards nuclear disarmament. Key evidence points to a fractured international environment, exacerbated by disputes over Iran, Ukraine, and North Korea, with the ‘P5’ states actively resisting commitments to disarmament. The expiration of New START without a replacement, coupled with accelerating nuclear build-ups by China and other nations, further weakened the NPT regime and the ‘grand bargain’ of non-proliferation in exchange for disarmament. Ultimately, the conference highlighted a shift towards bilateral leverage among major powers, diminishing the effectiveness of consensus-based multilateral processes.
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This briefing addresses the growing environmental concerns surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI), arguing that the technology's rapid expansion poses significant, potentially unmanaged climate risks. The discussion will analyze the current environmental footprint of AI, questioning whether the industry is adequately integrating sustainable practices into product design and development. Critically, the analysis emphasizes the urgent need for robust governance, exploring what effective national and international regulatory frameworks are required to manage AI's environmental impact and ensure responsible global deployment.
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The proliferation of advanced AI cyber models, restricted primarily to US and Chinese partners, is creating a critical global cyber defense gap for middle powers. While alignment with a superpower offers immediate security benefits, the analysis argues this path is insufficient and does not guarantee access during a crisis. Instead, middle powers must prioritize 'coordination,' leveraging a rare window of international awareness to strengthen multi-stakeholder networks. This involves enhancing institutional cooperation, information sharing, and cross-border rapid response capabilities to build collective cyber resilience and avoid geopolitical dependence.
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The report argues that the global economic order faces significant disruption from both the unpredictable policies of the US (the 'Trump shock') and China's resistance to international economic norms. To safeguard principles of openness and mutual benefit, the authors advocate for establishing a permanent 'third pole' alliance of market-oriented economies. This new bloc would be designed to preserve core economic rules by excluding both the US and China. Key members should include the EU and the CPTPP nations, supplemented by other major economies like Brazil and South Korea to create a large, effective, and rules-based economic space.
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The rapid scaling of AI infrastructure, particularly data centers, is emerging as a critical, often overlooked, driver of global water stress. This strain is evident both locally, where data centers compete with communities for scarce water resources, and globally, where the supply chain for essential components like semiconductors is highly water-intensive and vulnerable to climate and geopolitical shocks. To mitigate these risks, governments must fundamentally rethink water governance, moving beyond localized solutions. Policy must mandate greater investment in public water services, promote circularity in data center operations, and prioritize equitable access to domestic water use over unchecked digital economic expansion.
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10.Ebola in DR Congo: A ‘catastrophic collision of disease and conflict’. Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
The Ebola crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is fundamentally a consequence of a 'catastrophic collision' between disease and instability. The primary finding is that outbreaks are being exacerbated by a combination of armed rebellion, fragile governance, and a severe collapse in public trust. This instability, coupled with dangerous disinformation, significantly hinders effective public health responses. Policy implications suggest that global health strategies must move beyond purely medical interventions, requiring integrated efforts that address underlying political conflict, strengthen state capacity, and rebuild community trust to contain the threat.
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Chatham House’s analysis suggests the Middle East is fracturing into distinct rival blocs, primarily driven by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict and its subsequent ripple effects. Evidence points to a hardening of alliances – particularly between Iran and countries like Syria and Lebanon – alongside a growing divergence in priorities and security interests among regional states. This fragmentation threatens the existing regional order and necessitates a reassessment of Western engagement, potentially requiring a more targeted diplomatic strategy focused on managing bloc dynamics rather than pursuing broad regional stability. Policymakers should anticipate increased competition and instability across the region.
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Chatham House’s analysis argues that bolstering global rules surrounding gold trade, particularly through enhanced tracking and transparency, is crucial to curbing illicit flows linked to criminal economies. The report highlights how weak regulatory oversight and data gaps facilitate the exploitation of gold by transnational criminal networks, often originating in producer countries. Strengthening international cooperation and implementing standardized reporting requirements are identified as key policy options to mitigate these risks and safeguard global financial markets. Ultimately, improved governance of the gold supply chain is presented as a vital tool for combating financial crime and supporting legitimate trade.
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This Chatham House event, analyzing the evolving landscape of human rights advocacy, finds that traditional governmental and institutional leadership is waning, with a surge in influence from grassroots movements, legal practitioners, and emerging state actors, particularly those from the Global South. The discussion highlights a shift towards more localized and rights-based approaches, challenging established frameworks and demanding greater accountability. Ultimately, the report suggests that governments and multilateral organizations must adapt to this new dynamic to maintain relevance and effectiveness in promoting human rights. This shift represents a fundamental re-evaluation of how human rights are defined and defended.
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14.
Chatham House’s analysis reveals that while the UK increasingly frames LGBTIQ+ rights as a core foreign policy value, its influence is hampered by competing priorities and a shifting global landscape. The report highlights how aid cuts and domestic political challenges have constrained action, alongside a growing international resistance to LGBTQ+ rights advocacy. Consequently, the UK’s commitment is increasingly tested by its own domestic shortcomings and the rise of normative backlash. This necessitates a strategic re-evaluation of the UK’s approach to leverage soft power effectively.
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15.U.S. Forces Interdict Ship Connected to Iran in Indian Ocean, Iranian Oil Exports See Decrease (USNI)
U.S. forces’ continued interdiction of ships connected to Iran in the Indian Ocean, specifically the boarding of the MT Davina, is a key component of a broader blockade aimed at reducing Iranian oil exports. Evidence indicates a dramatic decrease – over 90% – in Iranian oil exports for May 2026, falling to 2.01 million barrels, alongside a significant drop in export value to $219 million. This disruption is causing concern among Iran and China, who are facing storage issues and potential funding constraints due to reduced oil revenue. Increased dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a slowdown in overall traffic, reflect the impact of the blockade. The situation highlights heightened tensions and a deteriorating regional operating environment, as evidenced by recent attacks on vessels like the MSC Sariska V.
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The Western Pacific remains a highly active and strategically contested theater, characterized by a high tempo of multinational military exercises and deployments. Key evidence includes the simultaneous presence of major naval powers—such as the US, Japan, and China—conducting patrols and drills in critical areas like the Philippine Sea. The sustained focus on interoperability, exemplified by multiple nations preparing for RIMPAC 2026 and conducting bilateral drills, underscores a deepening commitment among regional allies to collective defense. Strategically, this indicates that the region's security architecture is solidifying around freedom of navigation and allied cooperation, intensifying strategic competition with China.
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Canada plans a major $1.8 billion procurement of HIMARS systems to significantly enhance the Canadian Army's long-range strike and anti-shipping capabilities. The system will be paired with advanced munitions, potentially extending range beyond 1,000 kilometers, making it Canada's first dedicated anti-ship missile system. This strategic upgrade is driven by heightened security concerns, particularly Russian ambitions in the Arctic. The enhanced capability allows Canada to bolster its defense of national shores while also enabling more serious expeditionary contributions to NATO's eastern flank and the Indo-Pacific region.
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18.
House authorizers have mandated a study assessing the potential impact of the proposed nuclear-powered battleship program (BBG(X)) on the U.S. shipbuilding industrial base. The concern is that the battleship's accelerated acquisition timeline and reliance on limited suppliers for nuclear reactors could severely jeopardize the delivery schedules of existing, critical assets, such as the Ford-class aircraft carriers. Policy-wise, the Navy must now provide a detailed plan explaining how it will manage the program to avoid disrupting the current supply chain and maintaining the integrity of the nuclear industrial base. This signals congressional skepticism regarding the feasibility and timing of large, unvetted surface combatant programs.
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19.
U.S. forces have initiated strikes against suspected drug vessels in the Eastern Pacific, claiming to combat illicit narcotics trafficking. However, analysis of public health data suggests that the link between these maritime strikes and the reduction of the opioid crisis is tenuous. CDC data shows that fatal overdose deaths, primarily driven by fentanyl, were already trending downward before the strikes began, and the GAO notes that fentanyl largely enters the U.S. via land borders. Policymakers should therefore consider that combating the drug trade requires a multi-faceted strategy, prioritizing enhanced border security and intelligence sharing over solely relying on naval interdiction efforts.
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The U.S. Navy relieved the leadership of its primary ship maintenance facility in Japan (SRF-JRMC) due to a 'loss of confidence in their ability to command.' This personnel action, reportedly related to conduct, signals internal operational instability within a critical component of U.S. forward deployment capabilities. As this facility is essential for maintaining the U.S. 7th Fleet's warships, the incident raises concerns regarding the reliability and command stability of key alliance infrastructure. Policymakers should monitor these leadership changes to ensure uninterrupted naval readiness and the continued operational integrity of the U.S.-Japan security partnership.
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21.
Task Force Ashland’s four-month deployment to the Indo-Pacific, culminating in exercises like Cobra Gold and Balikatan, demonstrated the continued viability of a scalable, combat-ready force for maritime operations and allied interoperability. The deployment involved complex multilateral exercises in the South China Sea and reinforced relationships with key partners like Canada, Australia, and the Philippines. Notably, this was the second consecutive year a West Coast-based amphibious ship had deployed with embarked Marines, highlighting a strategic emphasis on distributed maritime operations and forward presence. The extensive training undertaken by the 13th MEU, including Realistic Urban Training, further solidified its readiness for future deployments and contingencies.
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A new Navy pilot program aims to improve sailor quality of life by expanding food options beyond traditional galleys. The program, utilizing a ‘swipe’ system and meal entitlements, allows sailors to spend their food dollars at MWR-branded restaurants and, eventually, commercial establishments like McDonald’s. This initiative addresses concerns about limited galley options, particularly for sailors returning from deployments, and seeks to emulate the variety found on college campuses. The Navy is also implementing grab-and-go healthy meal options and nutritional education programs to reduce musculoskeletal injuries and improve overall sailor well-being.
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23.Philippines Progresses Japanese Destroyer Transfer Talks, Receives American Cutter at Shangri-La (USNI)
The Philippines is actively bolstering its maritime capabilities through a series of vessel transfers from the United States and Japan, driven by tensions with China in the South China Sea. Recent agreements include the transfer of a decommissioned U.S. cutter to the Philippine Coast Guard and ongoing discussions for the transfer of Japanese Abukuma-class destroyers, slated for completion by 2027. This strategy, alongside planned acquisitions of modern frigates and offshore patrol vessels, aims to strengthen Manila’s ability to patrol its expansive exclusive economic zone. The transfers also include the potential provision of Beechcraft aircraft and anti-ship missiles, reflecting a broader effort to modernize the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard.
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24.
The USNI report, based on Congressional research, concludes that North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have significantly advanced, posing an escalating threat to the U.S. Homeland and key allies. This advancement is fueled by increased Russian technological support in exchange for North Korea’s assistance in the Ukraine conflict, as highlighted by intelligence assessments. Despite ongoing sanctions and diplomatic efforts, North Korea remains committed to maintaining its nuclear arsenal, viewing it as essential for regime security. Consequently, policy responses should focus on reinforcing deterrence, closely monitoring Russian influence, and maintaining a firm commitment to denuclearization alongside strategic adjustments to U.S. and allied force posture.
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25.
This USNI report details France’s fourth seizure of a sanctioned Russian tanker since September 2025, targeting the MT Tagor 400 nautical miles west of Brittany. The operation, conducted with UK support and utilizing Article 110 of the UNCLOS, aimed to verify the vessel’s flagged nationality and enforce sanctions against ships circumventing international regulations. This action highlights France’s commitment to combating sanctions evasion and underscores a growing trend of allied maritime interdiction efforts. The Russian government condemned the seizure as illegal and a form of piracy, further escalating tensions. The continued enforcement of sanctions through these operations signals a strategic shift in Western approaches to countering Russia’s maritime activities.
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USNI’s report details Turkey’s ambitious military modernization and expansion, exemplified by the multi-national Efes 2026 exercise. The exercise showcased Turkey’s growing expeditionary capabilities, including a 5,000-mile naval voyage to Germany, alongside significant investments in domestically produced defense technology like drones, attack helicopters (T-129 ATAK), and command-and-control systems incorporating AI. Notably, the exercise involved partners from the Middle East and Africa, highlighting Ankara’s strategic outreach. This demonstrates Turkey’s increasing military assertiveness, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea, driven by territorial disputes and a desire to project power beyond NATO.
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The CATO analysis reveals that the Trump administration’s WTO filing attempting to justify Section 122 tariffs is built on a legally unsound and historically inaccurate interpretation of international trade law. The filing argues that the US’s current account deficit constitutes a ‘large and serious’ balance-of-payments deficit, directly contradicting the established definition of a BoP crisis under the GATT, which centers on monetary reserves. Evidence presented—or rather, the lack thereof—demonstrates that US monetary reserves are not declining, and the administration’s approach ignores the congressional intent behind the Trade Act of 1974, which explicitly linked Section 122 to the GATT’s framework. This filing exposes the administration’s bad faith and opens the door to potentially unlimited protectionist tariffs, undermining the rules-based international trading system.
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The CATO analysis highlights a lobbying effort by the US Footwear Manufacturers Association (USFMA) to pass the Better Outfitting Our Troops (BOOTS) Act, which would restrict service members’ ability to purchase foreign-made combat boots. Evidence suggests this push stems from poor quality control issues with domestically produced boots and a desire to maintain protectionist measures, despite existing Berry Amendment restrictions. Military personnel themselves express preference for foreign boots due to superior fit, performance, and addressing specific operational needs, particularly in challenging environments. Ultimately, the attempt to limit foreign boot options undermines strategic flexibility and innovation within the military supply chain.
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This CATO analysis highlights the escalating threat of federal interference in upcoming elections, focusing on attempts to manipulate voter rolls and disrupt mail voting processes. Evidence includes the Justice Department’s demands for state voter registration lists, the Trump administration’s executive order targeting voting machines, and instances of questionable search warrants impacting ballot security. The article underscores the vulnerability of state election systems and the need for proactive ‘target-hardening’ measures. Ultimately, the analysis emphasizes the importance of legal challenges and judicial oversight to prevent federal overreach and safeguard election integrity.
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A judge ruled that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unlawfully froze legal immigration benefits for citizens of 39 countries by violating the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) and the Administrative Procedure Act. The court found that USCIS lacked statutory authority to halt adjudications and engaged in discriminatory practices, citing a lack of rational connection to national security concerns and inconsistent application of policies. This decision highlights significant mismanagement and potential fraud within DHS, with over $1 billion in fees collected without processing applications. The ongoing freeze on legal immigration, combined with State Department restrictions, continues to severely impact legal immigration flows, creating substantial challenges for the economy and workforce.
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Representative Vargas’s analysis reveals a concerning trend within the Republican party: a lack of vocal opposition to expansive surveillance practices initiated by the Trump administration. Specifically, Vargas highlighted the ICE acting director’s justification for warrantless home entries, alongside the lowered financial surveillance thresholds and expanded surveillance areas, demonstrating a disconnect between Republican rhetoric about constitutional protections and their actions. This silence stems potentially from political influence and the heated nature of immigration policy debates. The implications suggest a vulnerability to future administrations utilizing similar surveillance tools, necessitating proactive policy measures like blocking executive orders and restricting geographic targeting orders to safeguard civil liberties.
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CATO’s analysis of Ro Khanna’s proposed $25 minimum wage bill finds the proposal overly reliant on outdated comparisons and flawed reasoning. The bill, primarily pegged to two-thirds of national median hourly earnings, would likely result in a minimum wage closer to $16.34 in 2025 and $20.22 in 2031, significantly lower than Khanna’s $25 target. Evidence suggests that tying wages to productivity is misleading, as minimum wages primarily affect low-productivity sectors, and aggressive increases risk disemployment through layoffs or reduced hiring. The analysis highlights that the real value of the federal minimum wage has historically been much lower than Khanna’s claims, and that productivity gains don't automatically justify such a substantial wage increase.
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The CATO Institute’s analysis of the defunct Anti-Weaponization Fund reveals a deeply flawed and potentially illegal initiative designed to shield former President Trump and his family from IRS audits. The fund, characterized as wasteful and lacking safeguards, was spearheaded by an acting attorney general with a unilaterally added provision granting audit immunity – a move widely viewed as resembling a self-pardon and potentially unconstitutional. Legal challenges and congressional opposition, culminating in a failed Senate vote, highlight the fund’s instability and the significant legal and ethical concerns surrounding its creation. Ultimately, the fund’s existence exposes vulnerabilities in executive power and raises serious questions about compliance with legal and fiduciary duties.
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CATO’s analysis challenges the conventional narrative, arguing that poverty decline in the US predates and was largely driven by market income growth, particularly among African Americans, rather than government programs. The study utilized a revised poverty measure accounting for taxes and benefits, revealing significant reductions in poverty starting in the 1960s before Johnson’s ‘War on Poverty.’ This growth was fueled by rising wages and employment opportunities, not increased reliance on welfare. Consequently, the report suggests focusing on policies that foster economic growth and opportunity, rather than solely relying on expansive social safety nets.
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The CATO analysis argues against the SEC’s proposed shift to semiannual financial reporting, contending that the justification of reducing short-termism is unsupported by evidence. Research, including a 2018 review and analysis of corporate investment and share repurchases, demonstrates that quarterly reporting has not demonstrably caused short-termism. Furthermore, the UK’s experience following its own mandated quarterly reporting revealed no impact on valuations, while highlighting the significant costs associated with the requirement. The core argument centers on restoring self-determination to companies and investors regarding reporting frequency, a principle supported by historical trends and cost savings.
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CATO’s analysis criticizes the Trump administration’s approach to addressing health insurance affordability, specifically its focus on a temporary regulation change for ‘short-term limited duration insurance’ (STLDI) plans. The administration’s 2018 rule, which clarified the legality of longer-term STLDI contracts and resulted in stabilized Obamacare premiums and increased enrollment, was a successful response to prior Obama-era restrictions. However, the administration’s current strategy of relying solely on a short-lived regulatory fix represents a missed opportunity, lacking the permanence needed to incentivize insurer investment and address underlying affordability issues. The author advocates for a legislative solution to permanently codify the Trump rule, arguing that a regulatory-only approach is ultimately unsustainable and politically ineffective.
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This CATO Institute analysis argues against raising the federal minimum wage, asserting that the premise of a ‘problem’ is flawed. The effective minimum wage faced by most American workers is significantly higher than the current $7.25 federal rate, averaging $12.13 due to rising state and local minimums and productivity growth. A higher federal floor would disproportionately harm low-productivity sectors and rural areas where wage floors are already relatively high, potentially leading to widespread job losses. The analysis highlights that the size of the ‘bite’ – the ratio of the minimum wage to median wages – is a more critical factor in determining employment impacts, and that larger increases would be particularly disruptive. Ultimately, the report concludes that existing state and local minimum wage policies effectively address wage concerns, rendering a federal hike unnecessary and potentially detrimental.
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CATO’s analysis of the Trump Administration’s executive order on AI and cybersecurity reveals a strategy focused on bolstering national resilience against emerging cyber threats posed by advanced AI models like Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s GPT 5.5. The order mandates a 30-day pre-deployment testing process, overseen by the NSA, to identify and assess these models, alongside establishing an ‘AI cybersecurity clearinghouse’ to coordinate vulnerability scanning. Key actions include strengthening the Department of Defense’s information systems and directing CISA to issue binding operational directives for civilian cybersecurity. While intended to foster AI dominance and improve cyber readiness, the order’s opacity and potential for government overreach raise concerns about stifling innovation and transparency. Ultimately, the initiative represents a reactive, defense-oriented approach to managing AI risks.
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CATO’s analysis challenges the notion of a national housing affordability crisis, arguing that readily available metrics like house price-to-income ratios provide a misleading picture due to evolving housing quality and location preferences. The think tank emphasizes that affordability is best assessed by examining the relationship between down payments and household net worth, and ongoing mortgage payments relative to income, rather than solely focusing on the total price of a home. Data reveal that mortgage burdens, while elevated since 2020, remain within historical norms, and the required down payment is surprisingly manageable, particularly when compared to the 1970s and 1980s. Therefore, the report suggests a shift in focus away from broad affordability claims and towards localized issues of land-use regulations.
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40.The Fourth Amendment Forecloses a Foreign Intelligence Exception: A Brief Case Against the FISA Section 702 Program (CATO)
CATO’s analysis argues that the FISA Section 702 program fundamentally violates the Fourth Amendment by treating bulk data collection of Americans as equivalent to a general warrant, a practice the Founding Fathers explicitly sought to abolish. The organization contends that the FISC’s ‘foreign intelligence exception,’ built upon judicial interpretation, is a constructed loophole rather than a genuine constitutional provision. Evidence cited includes the Founders’ use of encryption to protect their communications and the absence of a national security exception in the original Fourth Amendment text. Furthermore, the program’s architecture – collecting communications ‘to, from, or about’ foreign selectors – inherently sweeps in American data, creating a system of unwarranted surveillance. This ultimately necessitates a warrant requirement to protect individual privacy rights.
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41.
The Cato Institute argues that the Department of Labor’s proposed rule to inflate H-1B wages is unlawful and unnecessary, aiming to restrict the supply of skilled foreign workers rather than address genuine wage concerns. Evidence presented demonstrates that the proposed rule would disqualify over 80% of H-1B job offers, particularly for high-skilled workers like software developers, and would force many to leave the U.S. The DOL’s methodology relies on arbitrary percentile targets rather than market-based wage determination, ignoring the fact that H-1B workers are already paid above the average for their roles. This policy shift risks hindering business investment, job growth, and innovation within the tech sector.
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42.
This CATO Institute analysis argues against the continued expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, asserting that the current size is primarily a result of past leadership failures to normalize operations after financial crises. The core argument rejects common justifications, including the claim that costless reserves promote efficiency, citing significant taxpayer losses through forgone Treasury remittances. Furthermore, the article dismisses concerns about market volatility, attributing the 2019 repo episode to regulatory factors rather than a fundamental imbalance in reserves. Finally, the analysis suggests a phased reduction through a congressional mandate ending Interest on Reserves (IOR) as a manageable strategy, emphasizing that the challenge lies in implementation, not the principle of balance sheet contraction.
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43.
CATO’s analysis argues that the Federal Reserve’s large balance sheet, regardless of claims to the contrary, carries significant and ongoing costs. The core argument is that proponents, like Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Governor Chris Waller, justify maintaining the current system by citing complexities arising from post-GFC regulations and fiscal flows, effectively blaming external factors for the Fed’s own policy choices. Specifically, the argument that the Fed’s marginal cost of supplying reserves is small is misleading, ignoring the broader economic consequences of artificially maintaining low interest rates and the impact of IOR on bank behavior. Reducing the balance sheet and ending IOR payments are therefore critical policy reforms to restore a clear separation between monetary and fiscal policy and mitigate these financial burdens.
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44.
This CATO analysis argues that Donald Trump’s aggressive pursuit of government ownership stakes in private companies, particularly through his executive order and subsequent investments, has paved the way for Senator Bernie Sanders’s proposal for an American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund. The plan, mirroring Trump’s approach, involves a tax on AI companies resulting in federal ownership and board representation to exert political control. Critics highlight the inherent conflict of interest given the government’s existing regulatory role over these companies and draw parallels to problematic models like Norway’s wealth fund, which relies on government-controlled resource revenues. Ultimately, the article suggests this trend represents a dangerous expansion of state power and could be exploited by either party, as evidenced by the bipartisan support for similar initiatives during the CHIPS Act debate.
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45.
CATO argues against delaying the cost-sharing requirements within the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) as part of the Farm Bill negotiations. The organization highlights that nearly $10.2 billion in improper payments were made in FY 2025, largely due to states lacking incentives to prevent fraud. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) introduced matching fund requirements for states with high error rates, projected to save taxpayers over $40 billion between 2028 and 2034. Backpedaling on these provisions would not only delay significant savings but also undermine Congress’s credibility and commitment to combating welfare fraud. To strengthen SNAP integrity, Congress should prioritize reforms like enhancing EBT cybersecurity and bolstering the Treasury’s Do Not Pay system.
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46.
CATO’s analysis reveals that President Trump reached a settlement with the federal government, establishing the $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to compensate individuals allegedly targeted by ‘lawfare.’ This agreement stemmed from a dismissal of lawsuits against the IRS and involved the IRS forgoing certain audits related to Trump’s tax returns. The fund’s creation mirrors the Keepseagle v. Vilsack Judgment Fund, but raises significant legal questions regarding its constitutionality, potential expansion of presidential pardon power, and compliance with administrative procedures. Legal challenges to the fund’s operation, particularly regarding standing and potential constitutional violations, are ongoing, with initial lawsuits facing significant hurdles.
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47.
Colombian voters decisively rejected leftist candidate Iván Cepeda and President Gustavo Petro’s policies, electing right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in the first round. De la Espriella’s platform centers on aggressively combating crime through a model mirroring El Salvador’s CECOT prisons, alongside increased public spending and deregulation. This outcome represents a significant setback for the Latin American left, following defeats in Chile and Bolivia, and signals a potential shift away from Venezuela-aligned policies. The victory is expected to increase pressure for democratization in Venezuela and solidify a conservative trend across the region, impacting the strategies of leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula da Silva.
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48.
The Trump administration, despite a court order, is appealing a ruling requiring the return of $85 billion in tariff revenue illegally collected from American importers. This decision stems from CBP’s initial resistance to processing refunds through a newly developed system (CAPE), citing inadequate capacity, and a subsequent order from Judge Eaton demanding accountability. The government’s appeal seeks to limit refunds to those importers who have filed lawsuits, effectively excluding a significant portion of affected businesses, particularly smaller ones. This action highlights a continued disregard for legal judgments and raises concerns about the government’s commitment to rectifying past actions.
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49.
CATO’s analysis of Blackstone’s Commentaries highlights the enduring influence of natural liberty concepts on the American Founding Fathers. Drawing heavily on Blackstone’s emphasis on inherent rights – life, liberty, and property – particularly as articulated in Book 1, Chapter 1, the text demonstrates how these ideas, rooted in thinkers like Locke and the Magna Carta, provided a philosophical justification for resistance against perceived tyranny. This focus on individual autonomy and protection against government overreach directly informed the Declaration of Independence and the Virginia Declaration of Rights. Ultimately, Blackstone’s arguments, despite his own political leanings, served as a crucial foundation for the American commitment to limited government and the safeguarding of fundamental freedoms.
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50.
CATO argues that the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) system represents an unconstitutional expansion of government surveillance, lacking clear congressional authorization and violating investor privacy rights. The Eleventh Circuit’s prior ruling against the SEC’s funding order highlights the system’s significant cost ($150 million annually) and potential for warrantless data collection, raising concerns about Fifth and Fourth Amendment protections. CATO contends that the CAT’s scope – tracking billions of trades daily – constitutes a ‘major question’ requiring explicit legislative approval. Therefore, the courts should invalidate the recent SEC order funding the CAT until proper congressional authorization is secured.
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51.
CATO’s analysis argues that the current system of single-member districts exacerbates gerrymandering and hinders proportional representation in congressional elections. The proposal advocates for multimember districts (MMDs), where multiple representatives are elected per district, allowing for a more accurate reflection of voter registration patterns. Using Florida as an example, the report demonstrates how MMDs can achieve greater proportionality, particularly with a smaller number of seats per district. Implementing MMDs would reduce partisan advantage, encourage coalition building, and ultimately improve the responsiveness of congressional representation.
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52.
Congress recently passed the Stopping Indoctrination and Protecting Kids Act, prohibiting educators from concealing information about a child’s name and pronouns from parents without consent. This legislation, mirroring existing state laws like the Given Name Act, aims to strengthen parental rights and ensure transparency regarding a child’s identity and health decisions. The proposal stems from concerns about schools potentially suppressing parental involvement in a child’s well-being, particularly regarding gender identity, and counters claims linking gender-affirming care with increased suicide rates. Research cited by Heritage indicates a correlation between certain policies and mental health challenges, while highlighting broader public support for biological sex distinctions. The initiative seeks to safeguard the parent-child relationship and protect children's privacy.
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53.
The CFR report, "The Pharma Choke Point," argues that the U.S. has developed a dangerously structural dependence on China for essential medicines, extending beyond generic drugs to biologics and biotechnology R&D, driven by decades of Chinese state investment. This dependence is characterized by China’s dominance in key starting materials (KSMs) and increasingly, in biopharmaceutical manufacturing and DNA synthesis. The report identifies three archetypes of this dependence, highlighting the risks of deliberate supply withholding as a tool of coercion. To mitigate this, the analysis recommends establishing strategic reserves, building allied partnerships, and implementing long-term interventions to bolster domestic and allied production of critical pharmaceutical inputs and incentivize innovation. Ultimately, the report calls for a comprehensive strategy to reduce U.S. vulnerability to Chinese pharmaceutical dominance.
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54.
A CFR analysis suggests a "turning point" in the Ukraine conflict, driven by mounting costs for Russia and a growing realistic possibility of a ceasefire. Key evidence includes the passage of U.S. aid legislation and Zelenskyy’s call for direct negotiations, alongside a largely frozen front line and a significant decline in Russia’s offensive capabilities. Russia’s diminishing returns on manpower, coupled with Ukraine’s drone superiority and expanded long-range strike capabilities, are shifting the balance of power. Critically, Western support for Ukraine, particularly regarding ballistic missile defense systems, is constrained by production limitations and reliance on European purchases, raising concerns about Ukraine’s future defensive capacity and potentially increasing civilian casualties.
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55.
The CFR article highlights the significant geopolitical tensions surrounding the 2026 FIFA World Cup, primarily driven by U.S. immigration policies and the ongoing Iran war. The Trump administration’s travel bans impacting countries with qualified World Cup teams – including Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal – have created barriers to attendance and heightened scrutiny for international visitors. Furthermore, soaring travel costs and potential increased security screenings pose additional challenges for fans. This situation is expected to impact the tournament’s smooth operation and may lead to a shift in fan behavior, with many opting to attend matches in Canada or Mexico instead of the United States. The article underscores the potential for these tensions to overshadow the sporting event itself.
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56.
This CFR analysis reveals significant opacity surrounding the U.S. control of Venezuelan oil revenue following the 2026 intervention, estimating nearly $8 billion in oil sales through January-April, primarily to the United States, India, and Spain. Despite claims of benefiting both nations, the administration has lacked transparency regarding sales volumes, revenue collection, and fund disbursement, with significant sums – including $3 billion – held in accounts in Qatar and U.S. Treasury accounts without public accounting. The situation highlights concerns about potential corruption and a lack of accountability within the Maduro regime, necessitating a clear democratic roadmap and verifiable safeguards to ensure funds are used for Venezuela’s benefit and not to bolster the existing corrupt elite. Policy implications include demanding greater transparency from the administration and linking any further sanctions relief to demonstrable progress toward democratic reforms, including releasing political prisoners and holding free elections.
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57.
The CFR article warns that the current global rearmament boom, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending, poses significant risks to global fiscal stability. Evidence shows that military spending has surged to 2.5% of GDP, fueled by increases in Europe and Asia, alongside the U.S. budget proposal. This trend, coupled with existing high levels of government debt, threatens to exacerbate fiscal deficits and potentially trigger negative reactions in financial markets. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing defense needs with the economic realities of rising debt and potentially unsustainable spending levels, as evidenced by IMF data showing two-thirds of recent defense boosts were deficit-financed.
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58.
The Pope’s 2026 encyclical, *Magnifica Humanitas*, argues for a moral framework for artificial intelligence, framing AI development as a critical safeguard against potential harms to human dignity and societal well-being. Drawing on established international law and principles of social justice, the document calls for a shift towards economies and technologies oriented to the ‘common good,’ echoing corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives like the UN Global Compact and ESG standards. Specifically, the encyclical highlights concerns about algorithmic bias, surveillance, and the potential for AI to exacerbate existing inequalities, advocating for public oversight and ethical considerations within AI development. Ultimately, the Pope’s mandate seeks to re-center technological advancement around human rights and a just social order, offering a powerful counterweight to unchecked technological progress.
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59.
This CFR analysis assesses President Trump’s executive order on AI oversight as a cautious first step toward federal regulation of artificial intelligence, driven by concerns over cybersecurity risks posed by rapidly advancing models like Anthropic’s Claude. The order’s key provision involves requesting voluntary access to ‘covered frontier models’ for a 30-day cybersecurity review before release, aiming to preemptively identify vulnerabilities. However, experts caution that the initiative faces significant challenges, including difficulties in consistent patching, a constrained federal cybersecurity workforce, and the potential for adversaries to quickly replicate these capabilities. Ultimately, the order’s long-term impact on mitigating cyber threats remains uncertain, particularly against sophisticated actors like China.
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60.
China’s platform economy is rapidly deploying AI through the widespread adoption of open-source agent harnesses like OpenClaw, fueled by intense competition, regulatory pressure, and a tech-savvy public. The ‘OpenClaw craze’ saw explosive growth in China, with users rapidly installing and utilizing AI agents for diverse tasks, creating a significant deployment gap compared to the U.S. This acceleration is driven by China’s ‘AI+’ initiative and supportive local government policies. The U.S. needs to address public trust in AI and reassert itself in global standards to compete effectively, particularly given the fragmented nature of its tech ecosystem.
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61.
The CFR article argues that the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by Iranian actions, represents a pivotal moment accelerating the global energy transition. Evidence points to a significant boost in renewable energy investment and a shift towards electrification, fueled by the disruption of traditional fossil fuel markets and predictions from figures like the IEA’s Fatih Birol and the UNFCCC’s Simon Stiell. However, the article cautions that this transition faces persistent challenges such as grid constraints and supply chain dependencies. Drawing parallels to the 1973 oil crisis, the piece highlights the potential for significant policy responses – including increased fuel efficiency standards, expanded nuclear power, and substantial R&D investment – to drive a more rapid shift away from oil, emphasizing that change requires deliberate action rather than simply occurring.
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62.
After three months of Operation Epic Fury, public opposition to the Iran war has increased significantly, with 58% of Americans now opposing it compared to 35.7% in its early stages. This shift is largely driven by partisan divisions, with Republicans maintaining strong support while Democrats and Independents increasingly oppose the conflict. Furthermore, the war is negatively impacting President Trump’s approval ratings, particularly on economic issues, as evidenced by declining support for his handling of the economy and rising concerns about gas prices. Recognizing this growing disquiet, some Republican lawmakers are signaling support for congressional authorization for continued hostilities, though the likelihood of successful legislation remains low due to potential vetoes and symbolic nature of the votes.
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63.
The CFR report, "The Broken Economic Order," argues that the U.S. will inherit a fundamentally altered global economic system following the disruptions caused by the Trump administration’s policies. Key evidence points to enduring trends like increased strategic dependencies (particularly on China for critical materials), the weaponization of economic coercion by major powers, and the rise of state intervention in economies. This shift, accelerated by globalization and recent crises, has eroded trust in institutions like the IMF and WTO, and fundamentally altered the relationship between economic and national security. Consequently, the next U.S. administration must adopt a realistic, state-driven strategy acknowledging a permanently changed global landscape.
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64.
The CFR article argues that we are entering an ‘age of economic warfare,’ characterized by a dramatic increase in sanctions and economic restrictions globally, driven by a mismatch between the current global economy and the geopolitical realities of heightened competition. Evidence points to a tripling of trade restrictions between 2019 and 2024, reflecting a scramble for economic security among major powers. This fragmentation is fueled by vulnerabilities in global supply chains and financial systems built during the 1990s. Policy implications suggest a need to consider one of three potential futures: preserving some level of global integration through agreed-upon rules, forming competing economic blocs, or pursuing a transactional approach – each with significant risks and opportunities for the United States and its allies.
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65.
This CFR analysis argues that economic power is shifting away from traditional rule-making and institutional influence towards a concept of "weaponized interdependence." The rise of China, particularly its ability to build shielded industries like electric vehicles, has challenged the U.S.’s dominance. Evidence suggests that the U.S. has increasingly relied on tactics like tariffs and market access control, exemplified by Trump’s second term, to exert leverage, though these efforts have often been met with resistance. Notably, China’s strategic use of supply chain dominance – particularly in critical minerals – and its ability to withstand financial sanctions demonstrate the limitations of finance as a primary tool for strategic leverage. Ultimately, the report highlights a shift in global economic dynamics where states utilize their economic positions to directly influence others, rather than through established international norms.
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66.
The article details a "Protectionist Turn" in U.S. trade policy, initiated by both Donald Trump and continuing under his successor, characterized by the imposition of tariffs on a wide range of imports, particularly from China. Driven by economic anxieties and a desire to shield domestic industries, this approach involved leveraging authorities like the IEEPA and bilateral trade deals, despite limited success in reducing the overall trade deficit. This shift has fundamentally altered U.S. trade policy, diminishing the role of the WTO and fostering a more bilateral, discretionary system. Furthermore, the trend is likely to spread globally, mirroring similar actions by other major trading nations.
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67.
The CFR article argues that a strong U.S. foreign policy hinges on a robust domestic economy and a healthy labor market. Evidence suggests a shrinking labor force, driven by declining fertility rates and a net outflow of immigrants, is negatively impacting economic growth and consumer spending. While AI presents potential productivity gains, it’s unlikely to fully replace the need for workers, particularly in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. Policymakers must prioritize investments in education and workforce development, including scaling successful training programs and promoting financial literacy, to bolster the U.S. workforce and ensure fiscal sustainability for both domestic and foreign policy objectives. The article highlights rising financial insecurity among American households as a critical impediment to long-term economic strength.
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68.
The CFR report, dated June 8, 2026, argues that the escalating effects of climate change are fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics and pose significant, underestimated threats to numerous sectors. Evidence suggests that scientific projections of coastal sea-level rise have been significantly conservative, potentially placing over 100 million more people at risk, while the rate of sea-level rise has doubled. This presents critical implications for U.S. national security, with over 1,700 military installations vulnerable to rising seas and extreme weather, alongside increased competition for resources in the Arctic. Furthermore, climate change is accelerating migration, exacerbating water scarcity through altered river flows, and disrupting economic models that fail to account for cascading impacts like extreme heat and feedback loops. Ultimately, the report highlights the urgent need for proactive adaptation measures and a shift in strategic thinking.
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69.China’s $735 B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G 7 Debates Global Imbalances (CFR)
This CFR analysis highlights the record-breaking $735 billion trade surplus China maintained in 2025, driven by its role as a global manufacturer and the U.S.'s consumer demand. The authors argue that despite years of pressure, Beijing has successfully masked its holdings through strategic financial maneuvers. The significant surplus, exceeding even Germany's historical peak, is viewed as a key driver of global imbalances. This situation is being actively debated by the G7, particularly under the focus of French President Macron, and represents a substantial risk to the global economy. The analysis underscores the need for continued scrutiny of these imbalances and their potential impact on trade and investment flows.
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70.
This CFR analysis argues that the Red Sea is a complex space characterized by both conflict and cooperation, driven by shifting power dynamics and strategic interests. The region’s governance has historically focused on treating the Horn of Africa as a buffer zone, neglecting its agency and exacerbating instability through clientelist relationships. Current tensions stem from overlapping conflicts, competition among regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a divergence in priorities between major powers and littoral states. The report advocates for a new ‘Red Sea Compact’ emphasizing transparency and mutual recognition to restore stability, alongside a broader understanding of instability beyond traditional maritime security concerns, including unresolved regional conflicts and economic vulnerabilities.
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71.
The CFR report, "The Stockpile Gap," argues that America’s significantly reduced strategic material stockpiles – particularly the National Defense Stockpile (NDS) – pose a critical vulnerability to coercion and conflict, highlighted by China’s export controls. The report recommends expanding and modernizing the NDS, establishing a strategic resilience reserve, and fostering greater private sector collaboration through initiatives like Project Vault to secure critical minerals and materials. Historically, stockpiling has been a vital element of U.S. national security, and current levels are insufficient to meet potential wartime or emergency needs, as evidenced by the Congressional Research Service’s findings. This necessitates a renewed commitment to building resilient supply chains and bolstering strategic reserves to mitigate future risks.
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72.
This CFR analysis highlights the critical vulnerability of global agriculture to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, primarily due to the conflict’s impact on fertilizer shipments. The core finding is that the closure of this vital waterway has created a simultaneous supply and demand shock for fertilizer, driving prices up dramatically (75-108% above pre-conflict levels) and threatening significant income losses for cereal producers (up to 5% in 2026). Farmers face difficult choices – reducing fertilizer use with resulting yield declines, shifting to lower-input crops like soybeans, or facing financial collapse. The analysis suggests a slower, poorer, and hungrier world is emerging as a result of this crisis, with implications for global food prices and economic growth. Immediate coordinated action is crucial to mitigate the damage.
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73.
This CFR analysis argues against forecasting China’s external surplus to decline, citing a persistent trend toward a 10% of GDP surplus driven by China’s high savings rate (over 40%). Evidence includes the IMF’s consistent underestimation of the surplus, exacerbated by China’s property bubble burst and a depreciating exchange rate. The article highlights a systemic bias within the IMF towards deemphasizing imbalances, and points to the outlier nature of China’s savings rate compared to economies with similar rates. Consequently, policy should shift away from advocating for a reduction in China’s surplus and instead acknowledge China’s evolving comparative advantage, particularly in industrial policy.
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74.
CFR analysis reveals a concerning surge in transnational repression, with authoritarian governments increasingly targeting critics and dissidents abroad. Evidence shows 1,375 documented incidents since 2014, spearheaded primarily by China (319 cases) and exacerbated by coordinated efforts across nations. Democracies are struggling to respond effectively, hampered by geopolitical divisions and the manipulation of international legal mechanisms like Interpol’s Red Notice system. This trend, coupled with the rise in states actively silencing dissidents and the embedding of repression within international law, poses a significant threat to human rights and democratic values, demanding a strategic shift towards stronger international cooperation and legal safeguards.
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75.
The 2026 CFR conference highlighted a growing need to diversify perspectives within U.S. foreign policy, arguing that a lack of representation from marginalized communities and emerging nations hinders effective global strategy. Evidence presented included case studies of policy missteps stemming from cultural blind spots and a demonstrable gap in understanding diverse geopolitical realities. Consequently, policy recommendations emphasized expanding educational opportunities in international affairs for underrepresented groups and incorporating diverse voices into strategic planning. This shift is crucial for bolstering U.S. influence and achieving sustainable international cooperation.
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76.
The CFR report, based on expert analysis, argues that the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is fundamentally reshaping the global economy, primarily through significant disruptions to oil and gas supply chains in the Middle East. Elevated tensions have led to increased volatility in commodity markets, accelerating the shift away from the petrodollar and creating opportunities for alternative energy sources. Furthermore, the conflict is exacerbating existing inflationary pressures and prompting a reassessment of global trade routes and investment strategies. Policymakers should prioritize diversifying energy sources, bolstering strategic reserves, and closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape for its economic ramifications.
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77.
The CFR’s Science Fair Series event, focusing on nuclear fusion, highlighted the process as harnessing the energy of the sun by fusing light elements like deuterium and tritium, releasing immense energy via Einstein’s E=mc² equation. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s advancements, particularly recent breakthroughs, represent a significant step towards achieving controlled fusion. While decades of research have laid the groundwork, the extreme conditions – density, temperature, and confinement – required remain a major technological hurdle. This research holds significant implications for future energy security and competitiveness, particularly as a cleaner and more abundant energy source.
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78.
CFR’s analysis indicates that U.S. economic uncertainty stems from the interconnectedness of global commodity markets, particularly oil, despite the nation’s energy independence. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated this vulnerability, causing ripple effects through international oil prices and subsequently impacting domestic prices across various sectors. Evidence cited includes historical instances like the 1973 oil crisis and the continued reliance on imported oil, especially in regions like New England. This situation highlights the need for strategic resilience against global supply shocks and underscores the influence of geopolitical events on domestic economic stability.
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79.Young Professionals Briefing Series: Leadership, Technology, and National Security in a Disrupted World (CFR)
This CFR briefing argues that leadership in national security is increasingly reliant on understanding and integrating rapidly evolving technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and space-based assets. The panel highlighted the growing influence of tech companies in geopolitical strategy and emphasized the need for proactive adaptation to emerging threats and opportunities. Specifically, the discussion underscored the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration – combining military expertise with technological innovation and policy analysis – to effectively address complex security challenges. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize investments in AI research, space domain awareness, and cross-sector partnerships to maintain a competitive advantage.
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80.
The announcement of the Marshall Plan stemmed from a critical juncture following World War II, where Western Europe faced widespread devastation and the risk of communist expansion fueled by economic collapse and Soviet influence. Evidence highlighted the dire situation – decimated infrastructure, food shortages, and rising communist support – demonstrating a clear threat to U.S. interests and global stability. Recognizing this urgency, Secretary of State Marshall proposed a sweeping aid program, initially offered to all European nations, including the Soviet Union, to stimulate economic recovery and counter Soviet influence. Ultimately, the plan’s success hinged on securing Congressional approval, a challenge Marshall skillfully navigated by emphasizing the mutual benefits of European reconstruction and avoiding any perception of division within the continent.
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81.
This CFR analysis argues that China’s central bank (PBOC) is engaging in a significant, though obscured, intervention in the foreign exchange market. While the PBOC claims rising foreign assets of state banks are simply the result of increased domestic foreign currency deposits, the evidence suggests otherwise. Specifically, the surge in state bank foreign currency deposits, coupled with the behavior of the foreign exchange settlement data, mirrors intervention activity – rising when the yuan faces downward pressure and falling when it appreciates. Historical examples of similar patterns, including interventions in 2005-2008 and 2012-2023 linked to interest rate differentials and economic events, bolster this suspicion. Consequently, the PBOC’s actions regarding foreign exchange purchases and settlement need further scrutiny to fully understand the extent of its influence on the yuan’s value.
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82.
The article argues against the narrative of the ‘end of foreign aid,’ contending that reduced funding will hinder development progress. Evidence presented highlights the catastrophic impact of aid cuts on global health, with projections indicating a 200,000 increase in child deaths in 2025 due to reduced health assistance. Despite significant progress in poverty reduction and improved health outcomes over the past two decades – including halving extreme poverty and dramatically decreasing deaths from diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria – global aid funding remains substantially lower. The authors advocate for a shift towards empowering developing nations through targeted investments in local capacity building, aiming to eventually make aid unnecessary. This approach should focus on sustainable growth and human potential within recipient countries.
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83.
This Foreign Affairs article argues that migration, particularly of skilled workers, actively benefits authoritarian regimes by reducing domestic dissent and bolstering state capacity. The analysis, based on two decades of data from 149 countries, reveals that emigration of educated individuals weakens host countries’ economies and reduces their ability to challenge the ruling power. This ‘brain drain’ allows authoritarian governments to maintain control by minimizing internal opposition and attracting foreign investment. Consequently, policymakers should recognize migration as a tool utilized by authoritarian states and consider strategies to mitigate its impact, potentially through targeted development aid and support for civil society in sending nations.
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84.
The Foreign Affairs article, dated June 1, 2026, argues that Ukraine has successfully shifted the momentum in the war against Russia, marking a significant turning point. This shift is driven by Ukraine’s ability to mitigate the impact of manpower shortages through strategic reforms, including establishing larger corps and improving training standards, alongside advancements in combined arms tactics utilizing drones and artillery. Key evidence points to a decline in Russian combat effectiveness and an increase in Ukrainian tactical proficiency, evidenced by gains in Kupyansk and Huliaipole. Ultimately, Ukraine’s improved operational capabilities have reduced pressure on its forces and enabled a more favorable casualty exchange ratio, paving the way for potential cease-fire negotiations.
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85.
Foreign Affairs’ article, dated June 2, 2026, posits that Iran has adopted a strategy of embracing a ‘forever war’ against the United States, prioritizing conflict over diplomacy. This shift is driven by a belief that sustained engagement, particularly through actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz and exploiting divisions among U.S. allies, enhances Iran’s international influence and positions it as a key player in a multipolar world. Evidence suggests this strategy is fueled by a hardline regime solidified by the recent devastation of Iranian infrastructure and the resulting shift in internal power dynamics. Consequently, the United States and its allies are increasingly forced to accommodate Iran’s demands, recognizing its leverage and seeking a resolution to the ongoing crisis.
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86.
This Foreign Affairs article argues that Israel’s approach to the conflict with Hezbollah is a self-defeating ‘trap,’ driven by a combination of domestic political pressures and a shift towards a perpetually aggressive security doctrine. Evidence shows Israel’s rapid shifts in strategy – from diplomacy to military escalation – have failed to achieve lasting results, exemplified by the ongoing fighting, displacement of civilians, and expansion of the buffer zone. Despite attempts at high-level negotiations, Israel’s focus on territorial gains and perceived threats has undermined genuine efforts at disarming Hezbollah and restoring Lebanese sovereignty. Ultimately, the article suggests that a more patient, statecraft-based approach, focused on enabling the Lebanese state to achieve these goals, is crucial to breaking this cycle of escalation and achieving a sustainable resolution.
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87.
This Foreign Affairs article, dated June 2026, argues that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has inadvertently strengthened the Islamic Republic, leading to a fundamental shift in its strategy. Initially intended to cripple Iran, the conflict instead fostered innovation and adaptation within the country, resulting in a more confident and strategically astute leadership. Key to this transformation is a new generation of Iranian officials – primarily from the IRGC – who, hardened by decades of war and lacking the insecurity of the revolution’s founders, prioritize pragmatic statecraft and national defense over ideological grandstanding. This shift represents a move away from revolutionary rhetoric and towards a more calculated approach to regional influence and geopolitical strategy.
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88.
The Foreign Affairs article argues that Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a ‘inertia’ driven by deeply embedded domestic incentives, making a swift end to the conflict highly unlikely and potentially dangerous for President Putin. Over four years, Russia’s economy and society have reorganized around war, fostering a self-sustaining institutional and economic order dependent on military spending and a thriving shadow economy. Despite wartime economic gains, inequality remains high, and the benefits of increased military spending are unevenly distributed, primarily accruing to a small segment of the population. Any attempt to end the war without addressing these entrenched dynamics risks triggering economic dislocation, social upheaval, and a political reckoning the regime is ill-equipped to handle, effectively trapping Russia in a ‘war trap’.
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89.
The Foreign Affairs article, "The Transatlantic Crucible," argues that Donald Trump’s policies have severely damaged the transatlantic alliance, characterized by corrosive rhetoric, erratic behavior, and a disregard for established norms. Evidence cited includes threats to NATO, withdrawal of aid, and politicization of intelligence, leading to a "rupture" in the rules-based international order. However, this crisis is forcing European nations to invest in independent military and intelligence capabilities, potentially strengthening the alliance in the long run. Policy implications necessitate a renewed commitment to Article 5, consultation with allies, and a shift away from perceived territorial ambitions to rebuild trust and address shared threats like China and Russia.
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90.
The Foreign Affairs article argues that the U.S. military is entering an era of protracted, marathon-like conflicts, rather than quick, decisive victories. Recent events, particularly the ongoing war with Iran, demonstrate that modern warfare is characterized by extended engagements, resource depletion, and a shift in power dynamics favoring adversaries with access to cheaper, mass-produced weaponry like drones. The U.S. military’s reliance on fixed assets and failure to adequately invest in defenses has resulted in significant losses. To adapt, the U.S. must prioritize building stockpiles of munitions, leveraging advanced technologies, hardening bases, and fostering closer alliances – a shift from rapid, targeted operations to sustained, resilient engagement.
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91.
A recent Foreign Affairs podcast highlights that U.S. allies are belatedly recognizing the fundamental shift in the U.S.-alliance dynamic under President Trump’s second term. The core argument is that allies initially failed to develop alternative strategies, evidenced by events like threats to abandon NATO, limited support for Japan against China, and a lack of consultation regarding the Iran conflict. Since then, however, European allies, particularly after Mark Carney’s Davos speech and the Greenland incident, have begun to acknowledge the diminished reliance on U.S. support and are starting to formulate more independent approaches. This shift reflects a growing understanding that the traditional U.S.-led order is no longer guaranteed, necessitating a re-evaluation of strategic partnerships.
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92.
This Foreign Affairs article argues that China’s misperception of its own challenges – particularly framing them as technical or externally imposed rather than systemic – is a critical factor hindering its ability to adapt and address deep-seated issues. Evidence suggests this stems from a strategic downplaying of political and institutional weaknesses, including the concentration of power and ideological rigidity. Recognizing this misperception is crucial for policymakers, particularly in the US and Europe, as it informs strategies for managing long-term competition and calibrating deterrence. Recent policy shifts, such as acknowledging the real estate downturn and addressing demographic challenges, demonstrate a growing awareness of these vulnerabilities, though reforms remain cautious.
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93.
This Foreign Affairs article argues that the United States’ ability to wage war across vast distances hinges on permissive wartime access granted by host nations, a factor often overlooked in strategic discussions. The U.S. military has historically relied on countries like Uzbekistan, Kuwait, and Jordan to provide bases, transit routes, and logistical support, enabling operations in regions like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. This access significantly reduces the costs and challenges associated with projecting military power, allowing for rapid deployment and sustained combat operations. However, the article warns that this reliance on permissive access increases the risk of the U.S. defaulting to military action, potentially leading to unwise interventions. Ultimately, restricting wartime access could limit U.S. global reach but also serve as a deterrent against unnecessary conflict.
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94.
The UAE is pursuing an increasingly independent strategy in the region, demonstrated by its unilateral strike on Iranian-controlled facilities and subsequent withdrawal from OPEC, signaling a desire to be recognized as a leading global power. This approach is driven by a belief that closer ties with Israel, a divergence from regional norms, and alignment with the United States will bolster security and influence. Evidence of this strategy includes its support for the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan and its expanding economic footprint in Africa through companies like DP World, despite criticism and intervention from neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia. Ultimately, the UAE’s gamble on autonomy risks isolating itself from traditional Gulf partners while relying heavily on key alliances.
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95.
The new AI Cyber Executive Order adopts a 'light-touch' regulatory approach, confirming the administration's preference for fostering AI innovation and maintaining a competitive edge against China over implementing strict controls. This is evidenced by the EO's voluntary provisions and the apparent influence of major tech developers, who are driving the pace of advanced cyber capabilities. Strategically, this reluctance to regulate risks undermining U.S. AI dominance by ignoring widespread public skepticism and the general desire for federal oversight, suggesting a need for policy that better balances industry freedom with public trust.
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96.
The analysis argues that implementing a ban on U.S. gasoline exports, while politically appealing, would be counterproductive and detrimental to U.S. energy security. Export controls would create a domestic supply overhang, forcing Gulf Coast refiners to slash unprofitable operations and shift production toward more profitable fuels, ultimately causing gasoline prices to rebound. Furthermore, restricting exports would strain critical international alliances that depend on U.S. supplies as a strategic energy buffer. Because current federal law lacks the authority to mandate refiner throughput rates against economic incentives, any government intervention would fail to overcome these market dynamics.
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97.
Algeria is positioning itself as a major regional power by undergoing significant economic modernization and diversifying away from its historical reliance on hydrocarbons. Its strategic value is underscored by its role as a critical gas supplier to the EU and its growing shift toward deeper trade and investment ties with the United States. To capitalize on this potential, international partners must support structural reforms, particularly in non-oil sectors like green hydrogen, tourism, and IT, while addressing persistent challenges such as high youth unemployment and bureaucratic hurdles. This engagement is crucial for transforming Algeria into a stable, diversified economic engine at the crossroads of Africa and Europe.
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98.
The analysis concludes that Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea is primarily symbolic, designed for Beijing to project regional leadership within the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea (CRINK) grouping and signal declining U.S. influence. Key evidence suggests that North Korea's deepening economic and military ties with Russia, coupled with the restoration of China-DPRK trade, provide Kim Jong-un with sufficient leverage to resist U.S. pressure. Consequently, the immediate prospects for denuclearization talks remain low, as Kim's strategic focus is on solidifying his nuclear status and achieving international normalization through non-Western partners.
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99.
CSIS analysis argues that the election of Matthew Wale as Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands presents a strategic opportunity for the United States to re-engage after years of strained relations, particularly following the 2022 security agreement with China. The report highlights Wale’s pro-Western stance and the potential for a reset, emphasizing the need for sustained U.S. attention and engagement. Evidence suggests a shift in Solomon Islands foreign policy towards China, driven by concerns about regional influence, and underscores the importance of countering China’s growing presence in the Pacific. Consequently, U.S. policy should prioritize renewed diplomatic engagement, development assistance, and strategic partnerships within the Solomon Islands to mitigate China’s influence.
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100.
CSIS analysis argues that South Korea’s current strategic ambiguity with China, characterized by balancing US relations while maintaining ties with Beijing, is increasingly detrimental. The report highlights a shift from vertical economic complementarity to intense competition, fueled by China’s industrial advancements and coercive economic practices, exemplified by the THAAD response and ongoing reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals. Furthermore, China’s support for North Korea has evolved from a cautious approach to actively hindering denuclearization efforts. This shift necessitates a move to strategic clarity for Seoul, recognizing China’s competitive interests and potential destabilizing influence, particularly concerning North Korea.
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101.
Trendlines argues that the current era is defined by a fundamental shift in warfare, driven by advancements in production capabilities, evolving target definitions, and the expansion of conflict domains into cyberspace and space. The newsletter highlights that nations capable of sustaining large-scale production and logistical support will maintain a strategic advantage, while traditional notions of targets are increasingly blurred. This necessitates a re-evaluation of defense strategies and investment priorities, particularly in areas like resilient supply chains and multi-domain operations. Ultimately, the report calls for a proactive approach to policy planning that accounts for these emerging trends.
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102.No Time to Ease In: Immediate Priorities for Frank Garcia, the State Department’s New Africa Lead (CSIS)
CSIS analysis highlights that Frank Garcia, the new State Department’s Africa lead, faces a critical challenge: bridging the gap between ambitious U.S. strategic goals for Africa and the institution’s capacity to deliver. The report emphasizes a growing mismatch driven by a commercially-focused approach alongside a significant reduction in U.S. diplomatic presence across the continent, exacerbated by competition from China, India, and Turkey. To succeed, Garcia must prioritize immediate steps including clarifying the chain of command, issuing a strategic guidance note, rebuilding diplomatic capacity, and signaling seriousness on trade initiatives. Ultimately, his success hinges on operationalizing commercial diplomacy and restoring U.S. credibility.
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103.
The CSIS Commission on U.S. Cyber Force Generation argues that the current U.S. cyber defense posture is unsustainable due to significant talent shortages, fragmented command structures, and insufficient investment in specialized training. The commission recommends establishing a dedicated, centralized U.S. Cyber Force with a tiered structure focused on recruitment, advanced training, and streamlined operational integration. This force would require substantial funding and a shift in national security strategy to prioritize cyber deterrence and response. Ultimately, the report calls for a fundamental restructuring of U.S. cyber capabilities to maintain a competitive advantage in the evolving threat landscape.
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104.
The Brookings report argues that AI companion bots pose a significant public health risk due to inadequate safeguards, addictive design, and potential disruption of children’s social development. Evidence suggests a growing body of research demonstrating harm from excessive screen time and social media, justifying a shift from solely focusing on bans to implementing a robust recall system. This framework, modeled after those used for drugs and medical devices, emphasizes pre-market approval and mandatory recalls to incentivize safety and address the current market failures. Ultimately, the report advocates for treating ‘bans’ as recalls to proactively mitigate harm and establish a safety floor for these rapidly deployed technologies.
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105.
This Brookings study, published in June 2026, investigates the economic fallout of the 2025 administration’s aggressive interior immigration enforcement campaign, dubbed "shock and awe." The research demonstrates that the intensified ICE operations, characterized by high-profile raids and arrests, resulted in a significant loss of jobs – 668,000 across 86 cities – impacting both immigrant and American-born workers. Utilizing a comparative analysis of cities with and without heightened ICE activity, the study found that the enforcement surge triggered a decline in employment, particularly in immigrant-intensive sectors, and exacerbated broader economic disruption through reduced consumer spending and business operations. The findings highlight the unintended consequences of a purely enforcement-based approach to immigration policy and underscore the importance of pairing enforcement with pathways for legal migration to mitigate negative economic impacts.
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106.
Two U.S. Representatives, Mark Takano and Kevin Kiley, advocate for comprehensive reform of American K-12 education, emphasizing the need to address changing student demographics, the integration of AI, and workforce preparation challenges. The conversation highlights the significant demands of teaching, comparing it to managing complex situations like air traffic control, and acknowledging the intense workload including lesson planning and individualized student support. Both lawmakers, drawing on their experience as former teachers, argue for a renewed focus on addressing widespread underachievement within the American education system and the importance of recognizing the unique demands of the profession.
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107.With new funding, NSF’s Regional Innovation Engines are attempting to expand emerging clusters (Brookings)
The National Science Foundation’s Regional Innovation Engines are receiving expanded funding – $45 million over three years – to bolster existing clusters and expand their reach across the U.S., driven by concerns about declining U.S. leadership in key technologies and recent disruptions highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events. The program, part of the CHIPS and Science Act, aims to foster place-based innovation by accelerating technology commercialization and creating self-sustaining regional economies. Evidence suggests a growing consensus that geographic concentration of innovation poses risks to knowledge spillovers and national competitiveness, necessitating a broader distribution of innovation hubs. This expansion aligns with broader White House initiatives to scale regional innovation ecosystems and bolster domestic technology innovation.
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108.
The Brookings report argues for a new framework – ‘cognitive stunting’ – to describe the potential harm of generative AI on children’s cognitive development. The core finding is that over-reliance on AI tools for tasks like schoolwork reduces opportunities for crucial, effortful thinking, mirroring the concept of physical stunting caused by malnutrition. Evidence cited includes interviews and study participants’ descriptions of a positive feedback loop where AI use leads to dependence and diminished cognitive skills. Policymakers should consider this ‘cognitive stunting’ risk alongside existing concerns about AI’s impact, particularly regarding children’s learning and development, and explore strategies to promote mindful AI use that encourages genuine cognitive engagement.
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109.
The Brookings study, "Mind the Gap," reveals that the U.S. is outpacing Europe in AI adoption primarily due to a combination of factors: a younger, more tech-focused workforce and proactive support for AI experimentation within U.S. firms. Researchers surveyed U.S. and European firms to understand the differing adoption rates, finding that these two elements – workforce composition and organizational support – accounted for nearly all of the observed gap. While this adoption has yielded a small productivity advantage, it hasn't yet impacted employment levels. This divergence highlights the importance of both human capital and managerial strategies in driving technological innovation.
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110.
This Brookings report argues that AI's impact on economic mobility is complex, presenting both opportunities to boost productivity and potential risks of exacerbating existing inequalities. The analysis draws parallels with previous technological shifts, highlighting how automation and digitalization have historically created both wealth and displacement. The report emphasizes the need for proactive policies to ensure AI benefits are broadly distributed, particularly focusing on retraining programs and adapting social safety nets. Ultimately, the authors suggest a strategic approach is crucial to harness AI's potential while mitigating negative economic consequences.
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111.
This Brookings Institution report argues that project-based carbon credits offer a valuable mechanism for directing investment toward climate mitigation, but current markets are hampered by fragmentation and a lack of robust regulation. The analysis highlights the need for improved standards, shared infrastructure, and clear governance across both compliance and voluntary carbon markets. Specifically, the research recommends the EPA or Department of Energy as potential regulatory agencies to enhance market efficiency. The report’s findings underscore the urgency of reforming these markets to maximize their effectiveness in achieving climate goals.
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112.
Brookings research reveals a significant affordability gap disproportionately impacting Black and Latino voters heading into the 2026 midterms. The analysis highlights stagnant wages, rising costs of living across various sectors (healthcare, housing, utilities), and the administration’s disconnect from the economic realities faced by many Americans, particularly lower-income communities. Driven by factors like DOGE layoffs, a hostile political climate impacting DEI initiatives, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, these challenges have fueled concerns about inflation and economic hardship. Ultimately, the report argues that a credible policy response addressing wage stagnation, inflation, and expanded assistance programs is crucial to securing voter support, particularly among minority communities.
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113.
Ken Paxton’s decisive landslide victory over incumbent John Cornyn signals a fundamental shift within the Texas Republican Party, marking the end of the Bush-era conservative tradition. This outcome was driven by strong turnout among Paxton’s base, particularly in rural areas, while Cornyn’s support waned significantly, especially in urban centers. The victory reflects a broader trend of Trump-endorsed candidates gaining ground within the GOP, and presents a more formidable opponent for the Democratic Senate nominee, James Talarico. This shift elevates Texas to a key battleground for Senate control, potentially forcing significant national Republican resources to be diverted to the state.
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114.
At a retrospective on Jay Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair, Janet Yellen argued that Powell’s leadership was exceptionally successful, particularly in navigating the 2021-2022 inflation episode. Key to this success was a consistent approach of ‘looking through’ supply-driven inflation, recognizing that aggressive monetary policy responses would have resulted in unacceptable unemployment costs. Yellen emphasized the importance of maintaining anchored inflation expectations and cautioned against prematurely abandoning this strategy, even when demand factors were involved. Furthermore, she highlighted Powell’s proactive approach to financial stability, exemplified by his swift interventions during the 2020 liquidity crisis and the SVB collapse, stressing the need for a supervisory culture focused on preemptive risk management.
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115.
Brookings’ analysis of America’s school boards reveals a decade marked by significant disruption and polarization, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and increasingly contentious debates surrounding issues like race and gender in education. Research indicates declining student achievement, rising absenteeism, and the rapid integration of AI technologies into classrooms without adequate preparation. The Brookings reports highlight the strain on school boards and the need for updated governance models to address these challenges. Consequently, policy strategies should focus on supporting school board members, fostering constructive dialogue, and strategically integrating emerging technologies to improve student outcomes.
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116.
This Brookings analysis highlights a significant shift in U.S. trade policy towards Asia, driven by the integration of economic security concerns. The Trump administration's trade agreements with nations like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan now include provisions for onshoring critical industries and aligning security-related policies. Specifically, new frameworks with Malaysia and Cambodia incorporate economic security chapters focused on coordinated tariffs and investment screening. This strategy signals a broader effort to reshape U.S. economic relationships in the region, potentially creating both opportunities for deepened ties and implementation challenges.
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117.Verified Machine Learning Infrastructure: Formal Methods for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence Deployment (RAND)
The RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the rapid advancement of frontier AI capabilities by late 2026 necessitates immediate action to secure the underlying machine learning infrastructure. Utilizing formal methods – mathematical techniques for software verification – offers a potential solution to bolster the security of AI systems before these capabilities become fully operational. The report identifies key vulnerabilities within AI inference and training stacks and highlights the urgency driven by converging cyber threats. Recommendations are offered for a collaborative roadmap involving AI labs, formal methods experts, hardware vendors, and government agencies to establish verified machine learning infrastructure.
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118.Gender Norms Survey Measurement in Very Young Adolescents in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of Survey Efforts and Synthesis of Best Practices (RAND)
The RAND report, published in 2026, synthesizes existing efforts to measure gender norms in very young adolescents (VYAs) – aged 10-14 – within low- and middle-income countries. It highlights significant gaps in understanding VYA experiences and the need for improved measurement strategies to assess the impact of entrenched norms and evaluate intervention effectiveness. The analysis identifies key survey initiatives like GEAS and GAGE, while acknowledging limitations in global measures. Recommendations emphasize tailoring survey instruments to specific age contexts, integrating qualitative data, and measuring norms across families and communities to enhance validity and reliability.
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119.Updating California’s Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and Toxic Stress Risk Assessment and Response Algorithm (RAND)
This RAND report details the update of California’s ACEs and Toxic Stress Risk Assessment Algorithm, driven by a need to incorporate the latest scientific understanding and clinical experience. The update, informed by a committee of ten experts and usability testing with 97 California clinicians, refines the algorithm to prioritize trauma-informed care, emphasize protective factors, and account for a broader range of adverse experiences beyond the original ten ACE categories. Clinician accuracy in assessing risk and selecting appropriate clinical responses averaged 88-89% during testing, highlighting the algorithm’s potential for practical application. The updated algorithm aims to improve early identification and response to toxic stress physiology, ultimately contributing to better health outcomes for children and adults.