The White House (via OMB) strongly protests Congressional efforts within the FY 2027 NDAA to prohibit the purchase of warships from foreign shipyards. The Administration argues that these restrictions undermine national security by limiting flexibility and hindering its strategy of leveraging allied yards, such as in the 'Finland model,' to drive investment into U.S. shipbuilding capacity. This signals a significant policy shift toward integrating international partners into advanced naval construction, suggesting the Pentagon is prepared to bypass traditional domestic build requirements for future combat vessels.
Shock, awe, and economic fallout
English Summary
This Brookings study, published in June 2026, investigates the economic fallout of the 2025 administration’s aggressive interior immigration enforcement campaign, dubbed "shock and awe." The research demonstrates that the intensified ICE operations, characterized by high-profile raids and arrests, resulted in a significant loss of jobs – 668,000 across 86 cities – impacting both immigrant and American-born workers. Utilizing a comparative analysis of cities with and without heightened ICE activity, the study found that the enforcement surge triggered a decline in employment, particularly in immigrant-intensive sectors, and exacerbated broader economic disruption through reduced consumer spending and business operations. The findings highlight the unintended consequences of a purely enforcement-based approach to immigration policy and underscore the importance of pairing enforcement with pathways for legal migration to mitigate negative economic impacts.
中文摘要
本 Brookings 研究所於 2026 年 6 月發佈的研究報告探討了 2025 年政府推行的強硬內地移民執法行動——「震懾瓦解」戰略所造成的經濟後果。研究顯示，ICE 作戰行動的加劇，藉由高調的突襲逮捕，導致失業人數大幅增加，在 86 個城市中計 668,000 人，對移民和美國本土工人均造成影響。透過比較具有和沒有加強 ICE 活動的城市，該研究發現，執法力度增加導致就業下降，尤其是在高度依賴移民的產業中，並透過降低消費者支出和企業運營，加劇了更廣泛的經濟動盪。研究結果凸顯了以純粹執法為基礎的移民政策所帶來的意想不到的後果，並強調了將執法與合法移民的通道結合的重要性，以減輕負面的經濟影響。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
-
3.
The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
-
4.
The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.
-
5.
Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.