The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.
Indo-Pacific
This topic hub groups ThinkTankWeekly entries tagged Indo-Pacific and links readers back to the original publishers.
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The analysis concludes that China will hold the upper hand at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, leveraging its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains. This geopolitical leverage, combined with global instability (such as the Iran conflict), allows Beijing to dictate terms and buy time to consolidate its technological and industrial self-sufficiency. Strategically, the U.S. must avoid granting China a managed equilibrium by maintaining 'maximum pressure' on key sectors like AI and tech, rather than seeking broad agreements that could undermine American leadership.
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The analysis cautions that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit must not result in short-term strategic concessions for the US, which risks undermining long-term stability. China is rapidly consolidating global power, leveraging US policy shifts and increasing its assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific and in technology. Strategically, the US must prioritize addressing the immediate crisis in Iran, where China holds significant leverage, and must also focus on joint cooperation on AI. Ultimately, the US must resist political impulses and pursue a robust strategy to counter China's growing challenge to global dominance.
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4.Rare earths are on Trump’s agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home (Chatham House)
While China maintains critical dominance over the global rare earth processing supply chain, the US possesses a substantial, untapped domestic resource: electronic waste (e-waste). Estimates suggest that annual US e-waste contains enough rare earth magnets to meet a significant portion of projected domestic demand, far exceeding current domestic mining capacity. However, this potential is hampered by a lack of uniform federal recycling laws and specialized collection infrastructure, leading to valuable materials leaking out of the economy. To achieve mineral security, the US must shift its strategy from solely developing new mines to establishing a robust circular economy model. This requires federal policy intervention, investment in advanced separation technologies, and incentivizing product design for easy disassembly.
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The CFR analysis posits that the Trump-Xi summit is a critical juncture with the potential to fundamentally reshape global trade and technology competition. Key discussions center on nuanced economic strategies, such as China's financial maneuvering (e.g., dollar hoarding) and the necessity for allied manufacturing to counter China's technological dominance in areas like AI and robotics. Policymakers must therefore prepare for significant shifts in the bilateral relationship, emphasizing the need to strengthen allied supply chains and technological resilience to mitigate geopolitical risks.
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The U.S.-China trade relationship remains defined by intense competition, characterized by persistent tariffs and tech export controls, despite temporary truces. While the conflict is driven by concerns over trade imbalances and China's adherence to global rules, the two economies remain deeply interdependent, making complete decoupling highly unlikely. Policy efforts are shifting away from achieving a definitive 'win' and toward managing this complex interdependence. Strategically, the U.S. must navigate the tension between protecting critical domestic industries and maintaining necessary global supply chains, suggesting a need for formalized mechanisms to manage future trade agreements.
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China is consolidating its domestic energy control by restricting fuel exports to prioritize national needs, while simultaneously capitalizing on global energy instability to solidify its position as a dominant clean energy supplier. Key evidence includes record-high solar exports, driven by global supply chain shifts, and the implementation of detailed, binding national climate governance measures. These actions signal a dual strategy: enhancing energy self-sufficiency and using its manufacturing dominance to influence global energy transitions. Policymakers must anticipate that China will continue to tightly manage its energy market and leverage its climate leadership to deepen geopolitical influence.
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The US faces an inherent policy tension regarding Chinese clean energy investment: balancing the necessity of Chinese technology to accelerate domestic energy deployment against critical national security risks, such as supply chain over-dependence and data vulnerability. While China provides essential low-cost inputs for reindustrialization, current policies are often a chaotic patchwork of tariffs and screening rules that lack technological specificity. Policymakers must clarify their long-term national objectives—whether pursuing full domestic self-sufficiency or managed partnership—and adopt nuanced, technology-specific strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach to mitigate risks effectively.
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The article argues that China views the Iran conflict as a critical case study demonstrating that military victory is unnecessary for strategic success. Iran's ability to impose costs by choking the Strait of Hormuz and spiking energy markets proved that economic disruption can be a more potent form of warfare than conventional combat. Beijing plans to apply this 'coercion over conquest' model to the Indo-Pacific, suggesting that layered campaigns of maritime quarantine, cyber disruption, and financial pressure are optimal. This strategy aims not for immediate conquest, but for cumulative pressure designed to constrain U.S. decision-making and exhaust its resources across multiple theaters.
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The article argues that the upcoming Beijing summit will be characterized by an asymmetry: President Trump's short-term political need for visible deals versus Xi Jinping's long-term strategic goal of maintaining stability and resisting compromise. Consequently, the summit is unlikely to resolve deep structural issues like China's overcapacity or the trade imbalance, instead producing only carefully choreographed, limited agreements and a temporary stabilization of the atmosphere. Policymakers should view the apparent symmetry of the meeting as a warning, indicating that underlying geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions remain unresolved, despite the superficial appearance of progress.
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The Trump-Xi summit achieved a delicate détente, establishing a baseline of 'decent peace' that prioritizes stability and commercial cooperation over major geopolitical breakthroughs. Key evidence includes agreements on energy, trade (e.g., Boeing aircraft, Nvidia chips), and regional issues like the Strait of Hormuz, while China repeatedly emphasized Taiwan as the most critical issue for future stability. Strategically, the relationship is now defined by managed competition, with the pending $14 billion arms package to Taiwan serving as the most consequential test of this new, fragile truce. The outcome of this arms deal, and whether it is used as a bargaining chip, will determine the limits of the current détente.
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12.The Impact of Tariffs on the AI Data Center Buildout: Balancing Supply Chain Security and AI Infrastructure Leadership (CSIS)
The article argues that the U.S.'s use of broad tariffs, particularly Section 232 on semiconductors, fundamentally threatens the $2.7 trillion AI data center buildout by 2030. While tariffs on foundational metals increase costs, the most significant risk comes from semiconductor levies, which target the largest and least-substitutable portion of the capital expenditure. Implementing a broad semiconductor tariff could inflate the total buildout cost by over 50%, severely undermining U.S. AI infrastructure leadership. Policymakers must resolve the tension between supply chain security and economic ambition by exempting critical semiconductor inputs to maintain the pace and affordability of domestic AI development.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that global health reform cannot await a new world order, requiring immediate action from middle powers. Given the structural pressures on multilateral bodies like the WHO, the authors propose a dual strategy: middle powers must employ 'variable geometry' by building flexible, issue-specific coalitions (e.g., for pandemic preparedness) rather than waiting for slow, comprehensive global settlements. Crucially, reform must be driven by the Global South, necessitating that Western powers move beyond mere dialogue to genuine power-sharing negotiations. Failure to cede structural power and grant permanent representation to the Global South will undermine the legitimacy and effectiveness of any reformed global health architecture.
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Despite convening amid a severe energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, ASEAN failed once again to produce any binding, coordinated regional energy strategy. The failure is attributed to the bloc's inherent consensus-based structure, which allows individual member states to veto collective action due to competing national interests (e.g., prioritizing national reserves or aligning with bilateral powers). This paralysis not only stalled critical energy planning but also prevented progress on other major issues, such as the South China Sea Code of Conduct and the Myanmar crisis. The inability to act decisively undermines ASEAN's credibility and suggests that the organization remains structurally incapable of managing genuine, large-scale regional emergencies.
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The CFR argues that any US-China dialogue on AI safety must be narrowly scoped and coupled with a 'maximum pressure' campaign. Because China views AI cooperation primarily as a means to close its technological gap, the US cannot rely on Beijing's good faith and must maintain a significant technological lead. The recommended strategy is to tighten export controls to widen the US-China AI capability gap, thereby eliminating China's leverage and forcing Beijing to prioritize global AI safety. This approach preserves US leadership while creating the necessary structural conditions for long-term, enforceable safety agreements.
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Despite rising global tensions and skepticism regarding formal arms control, the paper argues that avoiding a new nuclear arms race remains achievable. It analyzes the stability of four key nuclear relationships—including the US-Russia, US-China, and the N5 group—to assess the current risk landscape. The research provides concrete recommendations for states to manage these complex dynamics and prevent costly escalation. Ultimately, the findings emphasize that proactive diplomatic engagement is crucial to maintaining strategic stability, especially in the context of the NPT Review Conference.
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India's foreign policy is defined by 'multialignment,' a self-interested strategy of maintaining strong, non-ideological ties with multiple global powers rather than adhering to any single bloc. This strategy is evidenced by India's simultaneous deepening of partnerships with the US (e.g., defense cooperation) while maintaining independent, critical relationships with Russia and France. Consequently, India is a major proponent of a multipolar global order, advocating for greater representation in international institutions. For external powers, the implication is that attempts to force alignment will fail; instead, a nuanced approach that works with India to maximize mutual gains is necessary for effective policy engagement.
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The Brookings analysis argues that the US and China can cooperate on mitigating shared AI risks—specifically those posed by nonstate actors—without compromising their intense technological competition. This cooperation should focus on practical measures, including establishing nonbinding safety guidelines, sharing limited threat intelligence, and creating an emergency communication hotline. Strategically, the US must leverage this dialogue to assert its leadership in global AI governance, preventing China from defining the standards. Failure to coordinate risks could lead to an AI arms race, while the US must also guard against China attempting to establish a 'floor' on American technology controls.
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India is strategically deepening its security cooperation with the United States and Indo-Pacific partners while rigorously maintaining its principle of strategic autonomy. Rather than joining formal, treaty-based alliances, India utilizes flexible, transactional partnerships to build material capacity and legitimacy, even while signaling concern about regional challenges like China's growing influence. This selective engagement allows New Delhi to maximize its geopolitical flexibility and avoid explicit confrontation, but it simultaneously strains relationships with partners who press for clearer alignment. Policymakers must recognize that India's foreign policy is defined by this careful balancing act, requiring sustained, nuanced diplomacy to manage its diversified ties (e.g., between the West and Russia).
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20.Hormuz crisis could lead to constructive dialogue between ASEAN and China in the South China Sea (Chatham House)
The energy crisis stemming from the Middle East is creating a strategic opening for ASEAN nations, particularly the Philippines, to re-engage with China on joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. This economic necessity provides a critical incentive for Beijing to cooperate on regional stability, allowing the Philippines to leverage its ASEAN chairmanship and growing US alliance to push for a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC). Policymakers should view this window of dialogue as a unique opportunity to advance international law (UNCLOS) and transform temporary energy cooperation into permanent maritime security agreements, thereby mitigating great power competition risks.
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The recent summit between Trump and Xi Jinping established a period of 'uneasy stability' rather than yielding specific, detailed commitments. Key discussions covered stabilizing trade (agriculture, aerospace), establishing protocols for AI governance, and managing tensions surrounding Taiwan. This tacit truce allows China to consolidate its technological autonomy and strengthen its economic security controls. For the United States and its allies, the implication is a narrow window to build industrial resilience and mitigate geopolitical risks in the face of continued strategic competition.
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India is uniquely positioned to anchor a democratic alternative to China’s authoritarian tech model, leveraging its democratic institutions and massive market to shape global technology norms. The analysis highlights that India’s tech governance remains rooted in the rule of law and pluralistic deliberation, contrasting sharply with state-led authoritarian models. However, the article stresses that India cannot lead alone; effective progress requires coordinated efforts from like-minded democratic powers, particularly the United States, to fill the growing normative vacuum. Strategically, democratic nations must urgently coordinate to establish shared frameworks for AI and data governance, or risk ceding future economic and regulatory influence to China.
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The article argues that the Trump administration's strained relationship with US allies has significantly diminished American negotiating leverage against China. This weakening is evidenced by allied nations (including Canada, the UK, and South Korea) forging independent, lucrative economic and strategic partnerships with Beijing. Consequently, China is capitalizing on the fractured US alliance structure, gaining greater economic connectivity and fewer multilateral constraints. To counter this, the US and its partners must urgently rebuild allied cohesion and develop a unified, collective bargaining strategy on critical issues like semiconductors and minerals, independent of Washington's unilateral actions.
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The CFR briefing concludes that the Trump-Xi summit established a fragile, symbolic détente rather than achieving substantive structural reform. This temporary stability is largely predicated on the mutual acknowledgment of critical vulnerabilities, particularly China's control over rare earth minerals and global supply chains, which previously forced a trade truce. While the talks reduced immediate escalation risk, the underlying structural threats—including technology dependence, market access issues, and geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan—remain unaddressed. Policymakers must therefore focus on mitigating these persistent vulnerabilities rather than relying on the diplomatic breakthroughs suggested by the summit.
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25.2026 International Affairs Fellowship Keynote With Ambassador Richard Verma: Geopolitical Challenges and the Path Forward (CFR)
Ambassador Verma argues that the U.S. foreign policy landscape is defined by intense great-power competition, regional conflicts (like the war in Ukraine), and persistent threats of terrorism. He posits that navigating these complex challenges requires a holistic, multi-sectoral approach that bridges traditional government expertise with private-sector economic insight. His own career, spanning military service, diplomacy, and the private sector, serves as evidence for the necessity of this breadth of experience. The key policy implication is the need for adaptive, resilient strategies that maintain global engagement while effectively managing geopolitical risks and economic security.
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The state visit signaled a desire for 'strategic stability' and economic cooperation, evidenced by China's agreement to purchase major U.S. goods. However, the summit highlighted deep geopolitical divergences, particularly regarding Taiwan and the Middle East (Iran). Beijing appears to be using economic engagement to buy time and forestall tariffs, while the U.S. is leveraging the relationship to manage the Iran conflict. Policymakers must anticipate continued strategic competition, as both nations will use upcoming multilateral forums, such as the G20, to manage their conflicting priorities and maintain influence.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit will focus on managing the US-China rivalry through transactional, short-term agreements rather than resolving deep structural competition. Both leaders are primarily constrained by domestic political pressures—Trump's election cycle and Xi's economic stability—leading them to prioritize immediate economic levers like trade purchases and technology access. While the US agenda is narrow and improvisational, China is leveraging its economic statecraft, particularly rare earth controls, to maintain an asymmetric stalemate. For policy makers, the report advises looking past immediate headlines, emphasizing that sustained data and execution on commitments, such as trade fulfillment, are more critical than the summit's stated outcomes.
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The article argues that Taiwan faces a critical and complex energy security challenge, intensified by global conflicts and its deep reliance on imported fossil fuels. This vulnerability is compounded by the exponential energy demands of its semiconductor industry, which underpins its strategic global value, and the geopolitical threat of resource cutoff from China. To mitigate risks, Taiwan is rapidly diversifying energy sources away from the Middle East and increasing storage capacity. Policy must therefore urgently balance massive industrial energy growth, climate transition goals, and geopolitical instability to ensure sustained national resilience.
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The paper argues that Nordic-Baltic states are increasing engagement with the Indo-Pacific, driven by shared security concerns heightened by the war in Ukraine. The most significant area of convergence is the shared threat of subsea cable disruptions, which both regions view as a critical hybrid security challenge. While the Nordic-Baltic states are inclined toward a NATO-like defense architecture, the paper notes a structural disconnect with the diverse, often national-level, responses in the Indo-Pacific. Consequently, future collaboration is projected to be domain-specific—focusing on technical issues like critical infrastructure protection—rather than encompassing broad regional military or diplomatic alignment.
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The conflict involving Iran poses a critical energy security threat due to its potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global choke point for oil and LNG. The primary finding is that even temporary closures or blockades cause massive price volatility, with recovery being a slow, multi-year process due to complex logistics and damaged infrastructure. Economically, this translates to immediate and sustained cost-of-living increases for consumers, impacting household budgets and the price of goods like food. Policymakers must prioritize energy diversification and build resilience against geopolitical shocks to mitigate the severe economic fallout.
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The Brookings article argues that Donald Trump's ambiguous comments regarding Taiwan—specifically suggesting that U.S. security support is negotiable leverage with China—dangerously undermine decades of established U.S. deterrence policy. By implying that Taiwan must 'cool down' and questioning the necessity of military intervention, Trump signals to Beijing that America's commitment is conditional. This shift from resolute deterrence to dealmaking will not reduce, but rather intensify, Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Therefore, the U.S. must maintain a consistent, unwavering focus on upholding stability in the Taiwan Strait and resist using Taiwan's security status as a bargaining chip with Beijing.
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32.Malcolm Turnbull: AUKUS is ‘a huge wealth transfer from the Australian government to the US and the UK’ (Chatham House)
Malcolm Turnbull argues that the AUKUS security pact constitutes a 'huge wealth transfer' and a poor strategic decision for Australia. He criticizes the deal by citing logistical flaws, specifically noting that US naval yards cannot produce the required submarines at sufficient scale or speed. Furthermore, he points to the UK's shipbuilding industry being in 'complete disarray.' Strategically, Turnbull suggests that Australia would have been better positioned by maintaining its relationship with France to develop common defense platforms for Europe, rather than committing to the current trilateral arrangement.
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The article argues that Russia's recent public displays, such as the diminished Victory Day parade, reveal deep structural cracks in its power and stability. Key evidence includes the military hardware's absence, slowing economic growth, and internal security tensions exacerbated by infighting and digital crackdowns. For policy, the analysis suggests that while Russia remains a threat, its declining geopolitical influence, coupled with the strengthening and consolidating hard-power capabilities of Europe and NATO, indicates a long-term erosion of Moscow's global standing.
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The article argues that the U.S.-India partnership should shift its focus from judging each country's domestic democratic performance to jointly championing democratic norms within the global international order. While strategic convergence (especially concerning China) remains the primary driver, the U.S. must recognize that India's engagement is rooted in self-interest and multialignment, not ideology. Policy should therefore guide the U.S. to work with India's efforts to democratize global governance structures, particularly in technology and security architecture. This approach allows the U.S. to leverage India's unique position to build a democratic alternative to authoritarian models without creating bilateral friction.
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The article argues that China has matured into a full peer competitor to the United States in cyberspace, demonstrating capabilities across sophistication, scale, stealth, and strategy. Evidence points to China's deep penetration of U.S. critical infrastructure and its ability to mobilize a whole-of-society approach, including controlling the private sector's vulnerability supply chain. For policy, the US must abandon the concept of 'cyber deterrence' and instead adopt a reinvigorated, multi-domain strategy that strengthens its own cyber defenses, revitalizes its institutions, and develops clear, cross-domain responses to Chinese malicious activity.
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The summit did not result in major breakthroughs but rather a return to managed stability in U.S.-China relations. Key outcomes include the establishment of a 'Board of Trade' and a 'Board of Investment,' which experts view as structural continuations of previous dialogues rather than radical new commitments. The discussions focused on managing existing trade flows and extending ceasefires, allowing China to maintain its economic status quo without making significant concessions. Strategically, this suggests that the U.S. must adjust its policy away from demanding fundamental systemic changes and instead focus on managing these stable, yet limited, bilateral agreements.
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U.S. allies are increasing diplomatic and economic ties with China, driven by growing frustration and concerns over the perceived unreliability of the United States as a security and trade partner. Key evidence includes high-level visits from European and Indo-Pacific leaders, resulting in agreements focused on diversifying trade, green energy cooperation, and AI technology. Experts caution that while these moves signal a desire to 'de-risk' and reduce reliance on the U.S., the strategy is largely symbolic and lacks coordinated substance. The primary implication is that allies are adopting an 'a la carte' hedging approach, which grants China increased time and space to build geopolitical leverage with the West.
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The U.S.-China rivalry is defined by a state of 'mutually assured disruption,' where technological competition (semiconductor controls vs. rare earth embargoes) creates an unstable equilibrium. While the U.S. maintains a lead in AI frontier model development, China holds an advantage in deployment speed and cost, suggesting rough parity. Policy efforts should focus on immediate, proactive dialogue regarding AI safety and non-proliferation, drawing parallels to Cold War treaties. Crucially, any safety negotiations must be conducted while simultaneously tightening technological loopholes to maintain strategic leverage and prevent being outmaneuvered.
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The current naval operational environment highlights significant resource strains and complex geopolitical challenges. While major assets like the USS Gerald R. Ford continue to deploy, the service faces personnel constraints, evidenced by potential hiring freezes due to Middle East conflict costs. Furthermore, regional flashpoints, such as Iran's attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz, underscore persistent maritime security risks. Policy must therefore balance sustained forward presence in the Western Pacific with careful resource management to maintain readiness and mitigate the impact of global conflict costs.
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This analysis summarizes Orville Schell's observations of the Trump-Xi summit, arguing that the interactions between the two leaders are critical indicators of the future stability of U.S.-China relations. Schell's key reasoning focuses not only on what was discussed but also on the sensitive issues that were deliberately avoided or downplayed during the meeting. The overall finding suggests that the summit may represent a potential inflection point, signaling a possible shift in the strategic relationship between the two global powers. Policymakers must monitor these subtle dynamics to anticipate whether the relationship is moving toward de-escalation or renewed strategic tension.
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The article argues that the concept of great power spheres of influence has evolved beyond traditional military boundaries, now manifesting in functional domains like critical technology and digital infrastructure. This shift allows powerful states, such as China, to consolidate an 'open sphere' by leveraging economic and technological influence, particularly if the United States makes unilateral concessions or is strategically distracted. The author warns that the U.S.'s willingness to make policy concessions regarding Taiwan and its diminishing reliability as a security guarantor could hasten China's consolidation of influence in the Indo-Pacific. Strategically, this necessitates that Washington update its understanding of modern spheres to prevent a major geopolitical division that could escalate into conflict.
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Following a period of appeasement to the US under a volatile administration, European nations have undergone a strategic pivot toward self-reliance and collective action. This shift was catalyzed by perceived US overreach, prompting Europe to coordinate joint military exercises, activate anti-coercion tools, and establish a collective defense financing program. Economically, the EU is rapidly constructing a parallel trading system through major bilateral deals (e.g., India, Australia), reducing dependence on traditional transatlantic markets. These developments signal that Europe is building a more resilient, sovereign security and economic core, materially altering its geopolitical trajectory toward strategic autonomy.
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Despite the public appearance of stabilization, the summit failed to resolve fundamental structural disputes between the U.S. and China, suggesting the competition remains deeply entrenched. Key issues, particularly Taiwan, trade imbalances, and geopolitical rivalry, were merely 'kicked down the road' through diplomatic rhetoric of 'strategic stability.' The analysis suggests that China is unlikely to make major concessions, viewing them as signs of weakness, meaning the relationship will continue to be managed through guarded competition rather than genuine cooperation. Policymakers must therefore anticipate persistent friction points and maintain vigilance regarding unresolved flashpoints to navigate the ongoing great power rivalry.
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The Western Pacific and Indo-Pacific remain highly active theaters, characterized by sustained multinational military deployments and high-tempo exercises. Key evidence includes major naval assets—such as the USS George Washington and JMSDF ships—conducting training, alongside the participation of allied forces (UK, Netherlands, ROK) in regional security patrols. The simultaneous monitoring of geopolitical flashpoints, including Russian convoys and North Korean sanctions violations, underscores persistent regional tensions. Strategically, this sustained high tempo implies that major powers and allies are maintaining a robust commitment to freedom of navigation and collective security cooperation in the face of escalating great power competition.
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45.Iran’s Plan to Charge for Strait of Hormuz Transits Could Spread to Other Regions, Experts Warn (USNI)
Maritime experts warn that Iran's push to charge fees or impose controls on Strait of Hormuz transits sets a dangerous global precedent for maritime choke points. This 'tollbooth model' threatens the fundamental principle of freedom of navigation, raising concerns that other nations could replicate similar restrictions in key global waterways. The resulting instability poses a systemic risk to global trade and energy supplies, forcing international actors to prepare for potential long-term disruptions and the need to secure alternative supply routes.
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The article argues that the current U.S. trade policy, characterized by tariffs and demands for concessions, is not genuine reciprocity but rather coercive unilateralism. This approach pressures allies to make unbalanced economic concessions, aiming to rebalance trade and realign global commerce with U.S. geopolitical goals. However, this strategy is unsustainable, as it erodes the trust and institutional framework of the international trading system. Consequently, trading partners are responding by deepening regional and multilateral economic ties, signaling a long-term shift toward alternative trade blocs independent of U.S. leadership.
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Beijing argues that the unraveling of the U.S.-led global order is ushering in an 'age of anarchy,' forcing China to abandon its anti-imperialist doctrine of non-interference. To safeguard its vast global commercial empire and critical supply chains, China is rapidly militarizing its foreign policy by building a comprehensive, forward-deployed security architecture. This strategy involves expanding intelligence collection, deepening security cooperation with foreign states, and deploying private security assets to protect infrastructure and trade routes far beyond its immediate periphery. This shift signals a move from diplomatic influence to overt, state-backed security enforcement to ensure the continuity of Chinese power.
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This RAND report develops a scenario-planning framework to analyze the complex future mental health landscape of the UK Armed Forces community through 2045. The analysis identifies key stressors, including the evolving character of conflict, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader societal trends like increased mental health awareness and technological disruption. The core finding is that the sector must move beyond reactive care, requiring proactive, collaborative strategic planning across military, NHS, and third-sector organizations. Ultimately, the report stresses the need for adaptable and resilient support systems to meet the unique and growing mental health needs of personnel and veterans.
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Norway unilaterally canceled a significant contract with Malaysia for Naval Strike Missiles (NSMs) and launchers, citing new national arms export restrictions. The cancellation, which was protested by Malaysian officials, is reportedly linked to US restrictions on key components, such as gyroscopes, preventing the missile's export to non-NATO nations. Malaysia views this action as a breach of solemn agreements, warning that such unilateral decisions undermine the reliability of European defense partnerships. This incident raises concerns about the stability of defense supply chains and the increasing geopolitical friction among major powers in the Indo-Pacific region.
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The Navy is mitigating the 'Walker Dip'—the decline of military medical skills during peacetime—by establishing deep civilian-military partnerships. These programs embed Navy medical personnel into civilian Level I trauma centers, providing invaluable, high-stress exposure that far surpasses traditional simulation training. This real-world practice ensures that corpsmen, who are often the first responders in combat, maintain peak proficiency in treating acute trauma. Strategically, these partnerships are crucial for maintaining combat readiness, guaranteeing that military medical staff can function effectively and calmly under the extreme pressures of actual deployment.
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The U.K. has pledged a significant force package, including a destroyer, Typhoon jets, and autonomous mine-hunting/drone systems, to lead a multinational mission in the Strait of Hormuz. This commitment is designed to secure freedom of navigation and protect commercial shipping following a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The deployment of advanced, high-tech assets and associated funding underscores a sustained Western military effort to stabilize global maritime trade routes. Strategically, this signals a deep, coordinated commitment by NATO allies to maintaining the security of critical chokepoints, thereby deterring regional instability and protecting global energy supply lines.
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The RAND assessment concludes that the Department of Defense's Business Enterprise Architecture (DBEA) is struggling to modernize and fulfill its statutory mandate for business process reengineering. Key findings indicate that institutional inertia, overly broad legal specifications, and an incentive structure focused solely on funding information systems are undermining the framework's potential. To achieve true utility, the DoD must pivot its focus from merely funding systems to defining practical, bounded use cases—such as those related to financial audits—to prove the architecture's value. This shift is critical for driving necessary business process improvements and ensuring the DBEA matures into an effective operational tool.
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53.
The article argues that China has significantly increased its leverage over the United States, constraining Washington's ability to set its own national security agenda. This shift is evidenced by the U.S. ceding authority over its own national security measures, such as export controls, in exchange for easing trade tensions following the 2025 trade war. Furthermore, China is successfully linking areas of cooperation and difference, forcing the U.S. to prioritize diplomatic optics over substantive policy goals. The implication is that Washington's decision-making is now constrained by Beijing, potentially emboldening China to test American resolve on vital interests like Taiwan and advanced technology.
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The article argues that the U.S.-China relationship is defined by a long-term, multifaceted strategic competition, which China views through a historical lens of achieving self-sufficiency and resisting foreign leverage. Beijing's approach is characterized by deep strategic planning, leading it to resist fundamental structural economic changes despite seeking temporary, mutually advantageous agreements. For policy, the analysis warns that the greatest risk lies not in disagreement, but in the misunderstanding or ambiguous interpretation of agreements following high-level summits. Therefore, managing the relationship requires both powers to clearly articulate their core, long-term objectives to prevent temporary stabilization from obscuring deep strategic divergence.
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The article argues that traditional, brute-force anti-cartel strategies are ineffective and often backfire, empowering criminal groups rather than eliminating them. Instead, the U.S. should adopt a policy of "conditional repression," which involves setting clear red lines and applying severe pressure only when cartels cross them (e.g., through fentanyl trafficking or violence). This targeted approach aims to coerce cartels into reducing their most pernicious harms—such as extortion and environmental damage—while minimizing collateral damage. The U.S. should lead this shift, encouraging Latin American partners to adopt similar conditional strategies to stabilize the region.
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While US instability creates a theoretical geostrategic vacuum for China, the article argues that Beijing's ability to capitalize on this opportunity is limited. Global powers are increasingly adopting a 'hedging' strategy, seeking to reduce vulnerability to both US and Chinese influence, suggesting the competition is not zero-sum. China faces specific hurdles, including deep skepticism in Europe (due to Russia ties and trade issues) and poor returns on its soft power investments. Consequently, the global balance of power is shifting, but the primary implication is that both the US and China risk losing global influence as nations prioritize strategic balancing over alignment.
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The Marine Corps is revamping its reconnaissance training by replacing the existing Basic Reconnaissance Course with specialized Ground and Amphibious Reconnaissance courses. This overhaul aims to prepare Marines for modern, multi-domain warfare by integrating advanced technologies, such as drones and aquatic sensors, into the curriculum. Key changes include mandating foundational infantry training for all candidates to close skill gaps and streamlining the pipeline for greater efficiency. Strategically, these reforms signal a commitment to developing highly adaptable, technologically proficient, and operationally robust reconnaissance forces capable of supporting complex, joint operations.
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The Chief of Naval Operations estimates that the U.S. submarine industrial base is on track to achieve a production rate of two Virginia-class attack submarines annually by 2032. This acceleration is predicated on significant investments in the workforce, distributed construction, and partnerships between major shipbuilders. Achieving this high build rate is strategically critical, as it supports the U.S. commitment to the AUKUS security pact by ensuring sufficient submarines can be sold to Australia in the 2030s. Furthermore, the Navy is actively studying foreign shipbuilding designs to rapidly improve domestic construction efficiency and capacity.
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59.
The article argues that the potential intersection of a Trump administration's unpredictable, transactional foreign policy and Xi Jinping's centralized power structure represents a critical geopolitical inflection point. Key reasoning suggests that this dynamic moves the US-China rivalry beyond traditional economic competition into a volatile, high-stakes confrontation across multiple domains. Policymakers must therefore adopt highly flexible strategies, preparing for rapid shifts in alliances and trade that necessitate hedging against both aggressive decoupling and sudden periods of cooperation.
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60.
The analysis addresses the high stakes of US-China competition, particularly in the context of potential high-level meetings between leaders like Trump and Xi Jinping. It argues that the current political uncertainty within the US complicates traditional bipartisan foreign policy approaches, requiring policymakers to navigate a complex landscape. Key flashpoints discussed include trade, technology, Taiwan, and Ukraine, underscoring the breadth of the strategic rivalry. Consequently, the brief implies that US strategy must adapt to manage this intense competition while mitigating the risks posed by domestic political volatility.
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61.
The recent Israeli strikes on Beirut, marking the first since a ceasefire announcement, significantly undermines efforts to establish a stable peace in Lebanon and highlights the fragility of the nascent truce. The attacks, targeting a Hezbollah commander, demonstrate that ongoing conflict remains a major obstacle to a regional peace deal, particularly as Iran explores U.S. proposals. Furthermore, escalating tensions in the region, evidenced by continued U.S. military assessments of damage to facilities and shifting U.S. strategic priorities (including reduced reliance on regional partners), underscore the need for a diplomatic resolution. This situation demands a renewed focus on de-escalation and a return to direct negotiations between key parties to prevent further instability.
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62.
Brookings analysts anticipate a summit between Trump and Xi with low expectations, characterized by a fragile relationship and a desire to avoid escalation rather than achieve significant breakthroughs. While both leaders seek to maintain a trade truce and avoid conflict, risks remain, particularly concerning tariff restorations and potential shifts in U.S. policy on Taiwan. The meeting's significance lies in its role as a crucial communication channel to prevent miscalculation, and there's a potential for discussions on AI safety and cooperation, though deeper issues like talent competition and fentanyl remain unresolved.
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63.
Foreign Affairs’ analysis, dated May 8, 2026, posits that Iran has weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, creating a sustained economic threat comparable to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Evidence suggests Iran’s sustained attacks utilizing mines, missiles, and drones have effectively blocked the waterway despite U.S. and Israeli military efforts. This situation is characterized by a durable leverage point for Tehran, stemming from its investment in asymmetric warfare capabilities and a global economy increasingly reliant on Gulf oil. Policy implications necessitate a shift from relying solely on military force and diplomatic pressure to building energy resilience, diversifying supply chains, and bolstering shipping routes to mitigate future disruptions and diminish Iran’s strategic advantage.
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64.
The analysis argues that geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz is creating a major energy shock, projecting a difficult combination of lower global growth and higher inflation. This energy shortfall presents a significant quandary for central banks, forcing them to navigate policy while struggling to meet inflation targets. Although the US is somewhat insulated from certain price shocks, rising oil prices will disproportionately impact low and moderate-income households, severely eroding consumer confidence. Policymakers must therefore remain highly cautious, as the uncertainty surrounding the shock's duration and magnitude complicates monetary policy decisions.
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65.
This Heritage Foundation analysis argues that Donald Trump’s intervention was crucial in preventing the UK’s planned handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a move perceived as a strategic concession to Communist China. The article contends that Prime Minister Starmer’s pursuit of the deal, fueled by a ‘Deep State’ and lacking a clear strategic rationale, posed a significant threat to U.S. and British security. Trump’s opposition, bolstered by support from figures like John Kennedy and Claire Bullivant, successfully halted the legislation, preventing China from gaining undue influence in the Indo-Pacific. The piece highlights Trump’s decisive action as a vital defense against a potentially disastrous foreign policy misstep.
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66.
CSIS analysis indicates that Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi has enacted a landmark shift in defense export policy, effectively removing restrictions on arms sales to a defined list of partner nations. This change, driven by participation in key programs like the Global Combat Aircraft Program and support for the Royal Australian Navy, aims to foster a more ‘normal’ defense industrial profile for Japan. While industry’s success hinges on continued government support and expanded collaboration, the policy represents a significant step towards greater engagement in the global defense market. The initial export focus will be on 17 countries, primarily within Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, excluding Ukraine at this time.
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67.
The conflict in Iran presents a mixed strategic picture for Beijing, offering diplomatic opportunities by allowing China to position itself as a neutral mediator and distracting the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific. However, these gains are offset by significant economic instability, energy market volatility, and the exposure of China's limited operational reach in the region. Strategically, Beijing's primary concern remains maintaining stability with the U.S. to ensure its continued rise, leading it to prioritize de-escalation over deep regional involvement. Ultimately, China must navigate the tension between asserting regional influence and mitigating the severe economic risks posed by disrupted global supply chains.
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68.
The analysis examines the K-shaped economy, which describes a widening divergence between the wealthy and the less well-off. However, the report challenges the prevailing narrative of decline, noting that real, inflation-adjusted wages for the lowest earners have shown significant cumulative gains, contradicting the 'K' story. The perceived divergence is often attributed to the wealthy's ability to draw on savings during economic shocks, which affects consumption patterns more than underlying wage growth. Policymakers must therefore distinguish between wage trends and consumption patterns, recognizing that economic shocks exacerbate visible inequality even if core wage data remains stable.
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69.
The anticipated Trump-Xi summit is expected to center on extending the existing trade truce, with the U.S. seeking large-scale Chinese purchases of goods and China aiming to preserve access to U.S. technology. Beyond trade, Beijing will subtly press for rhetorical concessions on Taiwan and the adoption of a 'mutual respect' framework, signaling an implicit acceptance of China's core interests. The outcome is highly significant, as it will define the U.S.-China relationship trajectory, determining whether the relationship settles into stable, managed cooperation or escalates into deeper strategic tension across global issues like AI and the Middle East.
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70.
According to a CSIS press briefing, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, delayed by six weeks, aims to address five U.S. priorities ("the five Bs") and three Chinese priorities ("the three Ts") including Taiwan, tariffs, and technology. China enters the meeting in a stronger position due to recent U.S. actions and a perceived improvement in its relative power, and is likely to pressure the U.S. regarding Taiwan, potentially seeking changes to U.S. policy on arms sales and transit for Taiwanese leaders. The briefing suggests China is well-prepared and confident, while the U.S. lacks a unified approach and is not adequately investing in its long-term economic foundations.
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71.
Prediction markets are experiencing explosive, multi-billion dollar growth, raising concerns about whether they function as sophisticated forecasting tools or unregulated gambling platforms. The rapid expansion is driven by regulatory shifts and heavily fueled by sports betting, allowing individuals to wager on a vast range of events from elections to geopolitics. Policy implications center on the blurring line between financial utility and gambling, particularly the regulatory loophole allowing participation by those under 21. Policymakers must address the lack of oversight, the increasing involvement of minors, and the systemic risks associated with this rapidly gamifying financial sector.
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72.
The global economy faces unprecedented fragility, driven by the intersection of opaque private credit growth and severe geopolitical shocks. The primary stressor is the ongoing Iran conflict, which threatens critical shipping lanes, causing commodity shortages and forcing nations into inflationary, protectionist policies. This confluence of high global debt, supply shocks, and central bank dilemmas suggests a period of unpredictable market behavior and potential financial market dysfunction. Policymakers must monitor deteriorating financial market functioning and the risk of systemic stress across major economies.
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73.
This CFR analysis argues that the recent conflict with Iran offers three key lessons for nuclear security negotiations. First, military strikes alone are insufficient to dismantle a sophisticated nuclear program, as demonstrated by the limited impact of air attacks and the ongoing challenges faced by the IAEA. Second, reliance on force can incentivize concealment of nuclear activities, hindering transparency and inspection efforts. Finally, the conflict highlighted the inherent disparities within the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), particularly regarding access to nuclear technology for nations that did not initially test weapons. Consequently, negotiators should aim for ‘better-than-nothing’ deals, focusing on reaffirming the NPT’s core bargain and establishing a framework for continued dialogue and inspection, even if complete disarmament remains elusive.
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74.As border enforcement expands, ‘colonia’ communities are left without basic infrastructure (Brookings)
Despite massive federal spending on border enforcement and surveillance, unincorporated 'colonia' communities along the U.S.-Mexico border are being left without basic infrastructure, including safe water, roads, and drainage. The report argues that this neglect is not accidental but is a direct consequence of fragmented governance and policy frameworks that prioritize security spending over civil infrastructure investment. Colonias, which are deeply embedded in rapidly growing economic regions, suffer from persistent poverty and limited services due to jurisdictional gaps and misaligned federal funding. Policy must therefore shift to integrate comprehensive civil infrastructure investment into border development strategies to address deep-seated socioeconomic inequality and support the region's growing population.
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75.
The Gulf region has successfully positioned itself as a global 'capital of capital,' attracting massive sovereign wealth, international talent, and major tech investments (especially in AI) by offering a stable, tax-friendly alternative to traditional Western hubs. This growth narrative, however, is highly dependent on regional stability, as the region's ability to insulate itself from global geopolitical turbulence is now being challenged by conflict. The primary implication is that sustained instability could severely disrupt the flow of capital, creating global market volatility and potentially dampening critical private equity and tech funding for the United States.
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76.
The global press freedom index has reached its worst level in 25 years, driven by a sharp increase in the criminalization of journalism across most nations. Key threats include state authorities leveraging national security and defense secrets, alongside powerful corporate and political entities utilizing abusive lawsuits to suppress coverage. On the ground, authoritarian regimes are employing sophisticated tactics, such as internet blackouts and exploiting global chaos, to dismantle independent reporting. Policymakers must recognize that the erosion of free press is a systemic risk, requiring targeted diplomatic and technical support for journalists and civil society to maintain democratic accountability.
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77.
This Foreign Affairs article argues that the recent flurry of diplomatic visits by Western leaders to China is largely driven by a strategic hedging response to former President Trump’s increasingly adversarial relationship with the United States and its allies. Faced with what they perceive as a predatory U.S. foreign policy, countries like Canada, France, and others are seeking to maintain channels of communication with China to avoid being fully aligned with Washington. However, this approach risks legitimizing China’s authoritarianism and reinforcing Beijing’s narrative of a rising global power. The article calls for greater coordination among Western allies, setting clear redlines, and a more assertive approach from the U.S. to deter coercive behavior and safeguard shared interests, particularly regarding technological advantage and supply chain diversification.
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78.
Following the disruptions caused by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, Southeast Asian nations are increasingly recognizing the strategic and economic value of the Strait of Malacca, a critical global maritime chokepoint. The crisis demonstrated how a single point of control can exert significant leverage over the world economy, particularly impacting energy supplies. Evidence of this shift includes Indonesian Finance Minister’s proposal to implement tolls on ships transiting the Strait, alongside discussions among Indonesian and Malaysian political elites. Furthermore, Thailand is actively pursuing a ‘land bridge’ project to circumvent the strait. This highlights a growing concern about supply chain vulnerabilities and the potential for regional states to assert greater control over this vital waterway. The potential monetization of the Strait of Malacca represents a significant shift in regional strategic thinking.
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79.
This week's state-level policy updates highlight a focus on renewable energy, AI adoption, and labor reforms across India. Key developments include Maharashtra's AI policy and MAGESTIC scheme to boost renewable energy, Andhra Pradesh's policy for data centers, and Karnataka's grievance redressal mechanism for gig workers. Several states are also aligning with national codes on wages and industrial relations, while others are implementing policies to improve water resource management and modernize prison systems. These actions suggest a concerted effort to modernize infrastructure, promote technological advancement, and address social and economic challenges at the state level.
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80.
The CSIS report argues that the U.S. and South Korea must significantly strengthen their cyber cooperation to effectively deter and respond to escalating threats from North Korea, China, and Russia. It proposes a new, integrated framework emphasizing shared situational awareness, improved attribution, and proactive cyber defense, including a Cyberattack Severity Classification Framework (CSCF) to standardize decision-making. The report stresses aligning cyber policy with broader diplomatic, financial, and law enforcement tools to enhance overall resilience. This necessitates a shift beyond reactive measures towards a more comprehensive and coordinated approach.
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81.
A CSIS report argues that despite increased speculation and geopolitical pressures, Japan and South Korea are unlikely to develop nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. The analysis highlights deeply ingrained domestic political and bureaucratic constraints, as well as a continued reliance on the U.S. security umbrella, as primary deterrents. While concerns about U.S. commitment and regional instability may fuel debate, the costs and risks associated with nuclear proliferation remain significant obstacles. This suggests policymakers should focus on strengthening alliance commitments and addressing regional security concerns through non-nuclear means.
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82.China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran (Chatham House)
The war in Iran is unlikely to establish China as a direct replacement for the US as the Gulf's security provider, but it is accelerating the region's strategic shift away from absolute reliance on American guarantees. This dynamic allows China to gain influence by positioning itself as a diplomatic and technological partner, rather than a military guarantor. Gulf states are diversifying their defense procurement and seeking alternative regional stability models. Consequently, China is well-positioned to promote its own normative framework for regional cooperation, making its principles appealing to nations seeking stability without US-centric security commitments.
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83.
A CFR analysis published in 2026 assesses the military campaign in the Iran War as largely ineffective in achieving strategic objectives. Despite significant damage inflicted on Iranian conventional weapons and naval capabilities, Iran continues to control vital waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and launch attacks, demonstrating a resilience that undermines the campaign’s success. The analysis highlights a crucial distinction between the ‘war of destruction’ – where the US Air Force achieved relative success – and a ‘war of disruption’ focused on countering Iranian drone and missile attacks, which the US has struggled with, leading to continued disruption of maritime traffic. Ultimately, the report concludes that Iran has effectively won the air war that matters most, highlighting the limitations of airpower in complex asymmetric conflicts.
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84.
This CSIS analysis argues that effective policy implementation hinges on competent management, and neglecting this can undermine even well-intentioned policies. The article highlights recent mismanagement at the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), leading to backlogs, strained industry relations, and isolation from international partners, ultimately hindering export control efforts. The author emphasizes the importance of leveraging career expertise, fostering communication with industry, and maintaining multilateral cooperation for successful policy outcomes.
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85.
President Trump has paused the U.S. military’s Hormuz shipping mission, citing progress in negotiations with Iran and a desire to facilitate a final agreement. This decision follows escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on U.S.-flagged vessels and heightened concerns over Iranian nuclear activity. The move reflects a strategic shift towards prioritizing a diplomatic resolution, although the U.S. maintains a naval blockade. Rising energy prices, exacerbated by the situation in the Persian Gulf, are a significant consequence of this policy change, highlighting the vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical instability. This action underscores a renewed focus on diplomacy within the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran.
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86.
France’s deployment of its Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to the Middle East, spearheaded by the Charles de Gaulle, reflects a strategic effort to bolster maritime security amid heightened tensions and the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. This move, part of a multinational coalition with the UK, aims to reassure commercial shipping operators, conduct mine clearance operations, and provide crisis exit options. The deployment underscores France’s commitment to maintaining a defensive posture and contributing to stability in a volatile region, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz. France’s actions are supported by a broader European effort, Operation Aspides, and involve collaboration with nations like Italy and the Netherlands, demonstrating a coordinated response to protect maritime trade routes.
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87.
A recent U.S. Army test successfully launched a Tomahawk cruise missile 390 miles to a target in the Philippines, demonstrating the capability to strike key locations within the first island chain. This test utilized the Mid-Range Capability, a system designed to deploy SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles for extended maritime strikes, and was conducted as part of ongoing exercises to deter potential aggression from China. The deployment of U.S. missile systems in the Philippines, particularly near Fort Magsaysay, has heightened tensions with Beijing and underscores the U.S. military’s strategy to contest Chinese influence in the region. This test validates the Army's MDTF capabilities and highlights the importance of strategic positioning within the first island chain.
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88.How to Forecast China’s Lithography Leap: A Comparative Analysis of the Delphi Method and Crowdsourced Forecasting (RAND)
A RAND report compared the Delphi method (expert workshop) and crowdsourced forecasting to predict China's ability to produce advanced lithography equipment by 2026 and 2030. While both groups identified similar influencing factors, the Delphi group was slightly more accurate, emphasizing the short timeframe for China's technological leap. The study highlights the flexibility of both forecasting methods and recommends ongoing data collection and forecaster training for future research, informing policy decisions regarding U.S. export controls and China's semiconductor ambitions.
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89.
The Marine Corps’ ongoing “Clean Sweep” initiative, exemplified by Operation Clean Sweep IV, is a strategic effort to instill discipline and ownership among its junior enlisted personnel, particularly Generation Z Marines. This program involves widespread repairs and renovations across its installations – including barracks and mess halls – representing a significant investment of $1.4 billion over the next few years. The focus on improving living and dining spaces, coupled with ongoing barracks modernization through the Barracks 2030 campaign, aims to directly correlate quality of life with readiness and retention. Ultimately, the program reflects a recognition of the need to provide a conducive environment for young Marines to thrive and prepare for combat operations.
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90.
A recent GAO report found that the Department of Defense's processes for determining Cost-of-Living Allowances (COLA) for military personnel have several weaknesses, including flawed sampling practices, inconsistent expense tracking, and discrepancies in dependent-based compensation. The report highlights that DOD's current survey methods don't produce statistically representative results and communication of COLA information to service members is often unclear. Addressing these issues is crucial to ensure fair compensation and support the quality of life and mission readiness of military personnel. DOD concurred with some recommendations but not others, particularly regarding the sampling methodology.
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91.
President Trump has nominated Rear Adm. Joe Cahill to lead the Naval Surface Force, leveraging his extensive experience commanding destroyers, cruisers, and aircraft carriers. Simultaneously, he’s appointed Rear Adm. Carey Cash as the Navy’s chief of chaplains, building on his prior role as deputy chief. These nominations, alongside others including Lt. Gen. Roger Turner for U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific and Maj. Gen. George Rowell IV for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, reflect a continued focus on bolstering key military leadership within the Marine Corps and Pacific Command. The appointments highlight the administration’s prioritization of experienced officers for critical roles within the naval and Marine Corps structures.
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92.
U.S. forces conducted multiple strikes against suspected narcotics trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, resulting in at least five deaths as part of Operation Southern Spear. These strikes were justified based on intelligence confirming the vessels' involvement in drug trafficking, though the GAO notes fentanyl primarily enters via land routes. The ongoing operation, which has seen 57 strikes since September 2025, highlights a continued U.S. military response to drug trafficking despite a reduced naval presence in the region. This strategy raises questions about the effectiveness of direct military action versus addressing upstream supply chains and land border security.
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93.China's Science and Technology Strategy in Perspective: Historical Evolution, Political Drivers, and Global Implications (RAND)
This RAND report analyzes China's evolving science and technology (S&T) strategy, highlighting a shift towards centralized, CCP-led innovation emphasizing technological self-reliance and integration with national security goals. Key findings include the strategic importance of S&T for China's power projection, the rise of military-civil fusion, and a move away from reliance on foreign technology. The report underscores the need for policymakers to understand China's approach to S&T, balancing collaboration with safeguards for research integrity and national security.
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94.
The recent Balikatan exercise in the Philippines showcased a new U.S. Army concept called 'Littoral Deep Battle,' designed to counter potential amphibious landings, particularly in the context of a Taiwan contingency. The exercise involved combined forces from the U.S., Philippines, Japan, and Canada, utilizing drone swarms, HIMARS rocket systems, and layered defenses to simulate repelling an invasion. This approach integrates lessons from Ukraine, emphasizes unmanned systems, and demonstrates a shift towards a more distributed and lethal coastal defense posture, with implications for regional security and alliance interoperability.
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95.Force Multipliers in the Americas: Harnessing Security Force Assistance to Bolster Homeland Defense and U.S. Strategic Objectives in Latin America (RAND)
This RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the U.S. Department of War can effectively leverage security force assistance (SFA) activities in Latin America to bolster homeland defense, counter transnational threats, and advance U.S. strategic influence. The report highlights the increasing convergence of threats from state adversaries and non-state actors, emphasizing the need for innovative SFA approaches, particularly utilizing the Army Security Cooperation Group—South and National Guard State Partnership Programs. Ultimately, the report suggests that targeted SFA can be a cost-effective tool for addressing regional challenges and countering Chinese influence.
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96.
The U.S. Navy recently conducted a Fleet Experimentation (FLEX) exercise utilizing drones and artificial intelligence to track and target suspected narco boats in the Caribbean Sea. The exercise, involving both aerial and surface unmanned systems alongside manned platforms, demonstrated rapid acquisition and deployment of advanced robotic and autonomous systems to enhance maritime domain awareness and counter illicit trafficking. This initiative, part of Operation Southern Spear, aims to address the challenge of patrolling vast maritime regions and leverages partnerships with industry and international allies to combat transnational organized crime.
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97.
The USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker highlights the global deployment of U.S. naval assets as of May 4, 2026, with carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups positioned across key regions including Japan, the Caribbean, Mediterranean, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. Significant deployments include the Gerald R. Ford CSG in the Mediterranean, the Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush CSGs in the Arabian Sea, and the Boxer ARG in the Indian Ocean. The report also notes the presence of Littoral Combat Ships and mine countermeasures ships, and the ongoing Southern Seas exercise off the coast of Argentina, demonstrating a broad and sustained naval presence worldwide.
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98.
Agrawal's career highlights that effective foreign policy analysis requires integrating diverse, global perspectives, a skill honed by observing massive technological and geopolitical shifts. His experience tracking the impact of digital transformation—from cable TV to smartphones—demonstrates that modern global events are rarely localized, having profound, varied ripple effects across different economies and societies. For policy strategists, this implies a critical need to move beyond national silos, adopting a holistic view that accounts for how global power dynamics (e.g., energy conflicts) disproportionately affect disparate regions. Furthermore, the rapid proliferation of affordable technology must be factored into policy planning, as it fundamentally alters political structures and social harmony in developing nations.
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99.
The article argues that the U.S. must counter China's expanding localized global influence by leveraging its technological and informational strengths. The core strategy involves harnessing open-source, real-time data (OSINT) to empower local actors, improve rapid interagency coordination, and provide evidence for counter-messaging. Policy recommendations emphasize amplifying authentic local voices, utilizing technology to monitor complex networks (like supply chains), and preparing for extreme economic contingencies, such as targeted sanctions or supply chain decoupling, to reassert U.S. leadership.
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100.
The article argues that outer space is vulnerable to disruption, mirroring how a limited force can destabilize a vital choke point like the Strait of Hormuz. This risk is amplified because most operational satellites are located in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), a region susceptible to anti-satellite weapons and debris creation. To protect the burgeoning space economy and maintain freedom of passage, the U.S. must prioritize diplomatic engagement with China and Russia to establish modern space governance. Strategically, the U.S. should also invest in technologies for debris mitigation and reassess its military reliance on LEO, thereby avoiding a potential conflict requiring superior military force.
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101.
The article critiques the administration's 'trade over aid' initiative, arguing it is a flawed and hypocritical attempt to justify massive cuts in foreign aid. While the free-market approach is advocated, the analysis notes that successful development models, particularly in Asia, require strategic government intervention, subsidies, and protection, rather than pure laissez-faire principles. Furthermore, the push for 'mutually beneficial' trade is undermined by the administration's own 'America First' policies, which are not genuinely reciprocal. For effective global development, policy must therefore balance market principles with strategic state guidance and ensure that trade assistance involves genuine, reciprocal purchasing commitments from developed nations.
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102.
The article argues that the fall of Saigon taught the U.S. that geopolitical history is non-linear and that policymakers should resist the temptation of defeatism or over-predicting the future. Key evidence cited is the historical pattern that following the perceived failure of Vietnam, the U.S. emerged as a dominant power, and rival powers (China, USSR) made subsequent strategic errors. The primary policy implication is a warning against assuming current geopolitical trends are preordained; instead, the U.S. must remain flexible and capitalize on unpredictable opportunities and challenges, rather than succumbing to pessimism.
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103.
The US and China are pursuing divergent AI strategies: the US focuses on maintaining a lead through massive capital expenditure and frontier model performance, while China is adapting to U.S. export controls by prioritizing efficiency, adoption, and physical integration. Key evidence shows China compensating for limited compute resources by heavily utilizing techniques like Mixture-of-Experts and quantization, coupled with an open-source model strategy that is gaining global developer popularity. This shift implies that the AI competition is evolving from a pure compute race to a multi-front battle focused on cost-effective deployment, open-source ecosystem building, and leveraging existing industrial supply chains for embodied AI.
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104.
The article argues that a significant, underappreciated risk for U.S. financial and tech markets is the potential reduction of capital flowing from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Historically, GCC nations have heavily invested in U.S. assets to diversify away from volatile energy revenues, but the Iran war and resulting economic strain are causing these nations to prioritize domestic spending and infrastructure repair. A pullback in this crucial capital source could severely challenge U.S. hyperscalers and financial intermediaries, forcing them to rely more heavily on debt at a time when valuations are already under scrutiny.
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105.
The ongoing instability in the Gulf is creating systemic global risk by eroding energy and trade buffers, threatening macroeconomic stability across the Indo-Pacific. This immediate crisis distracts the United States from its core long-term strategic challenge: the economic and technological competition with China. While the U.S. gains some leverage in infrastructure, the article argues that Washington lacks a clear, predictable, and durable economic strategy to counter Beijing's methodical build-up of semiconductor and AI capacity. Policy must therefore prioritize developing a long-term economic competition framework that transcends crisis management and uses export controls with discipline to avoid accelerating Chinese indigenization.
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106.
The analysis concludes that despite ongoing high-level purges, China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a massive, deliberate, and highly successful modernization effort, making it a formidable military force. Key evidence points to the PLA's exponential growth in budget and capabilities—including missile, cyber, and maritime assets—and the purges themselves are viewed as Xi Jinping's serious effort to ensure the military's absolute loyalty to the Party and to him. Strategically, this indicates that China is building a force capable of presenting challenges to the U.S. military that have not been seen since World War II, necessitating a serious reassessment of US Indo-Pacific military policy.
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107.
Emanuel argues that America's internal political divisions and systemic failures are its greatest strategic vulnerability, potentially overshadowing geopolitical challenges like China. Regarding the Middle East, he labels the current conflict with Iran a 'war of choice' and outlines a multi-phase strategy to stabilize the region. This plan involves immediately ensuring the free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by establishing UN oversight and redefining the Abraham Accords. Ultimately, the U.S. must leverage these accords as a financing and infrastructure vehicle to bypass the Strait, thereby undermining Iran's regional leverage and securing long-term economic stability.
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108.
The article analyzes the legal and strategic ambiguity of U.S. military involvement in Iran as the War Powers Act deadline approaches. Despite a current ceasefire, Pentagon officials are reviewing options for renewed strikes, signaling potential escalation in the Middle East. This heightened tension is reinforced by warnings from Iran's IRGC, which threatens severe retaliation against any new U.S. attacks. Strategically, the conflict is unlikely to achieve a quick resolution, suggesting instead a protracted, 'frozen conflict' characterized by cycles of renewed attacks and temporary de-escalations.
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109.
Global immunization efforts are facing significant setbacks due to a combination of conflict, declining public confidence, and weak health systems, threatening global health security. Evidence shows that the United States is experiencing measles outbreaks, while international support mechanisms like Gavi face funding uncertainty and political headwinds. For policy, the findings underscore the urgent need to reinforce both domestic public health messaging and stable international commitments to prevent outbreaks and maintain vaccine-preventable disease elimination status.
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110.
The Chatham House analysis argues that using advanced AI chip export controls as a primary geopolitical bargaining chip is an outdated and ineffective strategy. The core flaw is the assumption that chips remain the sole technological 'chokepoint,' as AI progress is increasingly driven by algorithmic efficiency, model optimization, and software improvements, rather than raw computing power. Furthermore, controls are easily circumvented through widespread smuggling and the use of grey markets. Policymakers must therefore shift away from a hardware-centric approach, adopting a stable and comprehensive strategy that focuses on algorithmic and software leadership to maintain strategic advantage.
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111.
The release of DeepSeek V4 signals China's commitment to the AI race, but the analysis finds that the model does not close the performance gap with U.S. frontier models. The true competitive threat lies not in raw performance, but in the model's open-source nature and low cost, which drive the 'adoption race' in the Global South. Furthermore, DeepSeek's capabilities are partially derived from illicit means, including smuggled U.S. chips and industrial-scale intellectual property theft via distillation attacks. To maintain its lead, the U.S. must shift its strategy from merely restricting hardware to aggressively countering adversarial IP theft through sanctions and multilateral pressure.
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112.
The analysis emphasizes that immunization gains in the Americas, despite historical leadership, are fragile and vulnerable to setbacks, as evidenced by recent measles outbreaks and coverage drops following the pandemic. Sustaining high, equitable vaccine coverage (e.g., 95% for measles) requires continuous effort, particularly targeting unvaccinated pockets at the subnational level. Policy recommendations stress that successful disease prevention requires more than episodic campaigns; it demands sustained political will, predictable financing, and robust technical cooperation among regional bodies like PAHO. Therefore, regional strategies must prioritize strengthening health systems resilience and ensuring consistent vaccine procurement to prevent the loss of elimination status for vaccine-preventable diseases.
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113.
The publication analyzes the acute geopolitical challenge faced by Australia, which is economically tied to China while maintaining a strategic alliance with the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The core argument explores the viability and costs of 'strategic hedging' for middle powers operating in a world where the established rules-based order is under intense revisionist pressure from both major powers. Key reasoning revolves around how allies can preserve strategic autonomy and economic interests when the terms of traditional US alliances are becoming less fixed. Ultimately, the piece offers insights into the limits of Australia's model for other nations seeking to navigate the escalating US-China rivalry without sacrificing their national interests.
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114.
Pakistan has undergone a significant geopolitical pivot, transforming from a pariah state into an indispensable mediator in major regional conflicts, notably facilitating talks between the US and Iran. This shift is driven by Pakistan's ability to deepen regional alliances (e.g., with Saudi Arabia and Turkey) and its strategic value as a resource hub (rare earths). Consequently, major global powers, including the US and Western democracies, are increasingly willing to overlook human rights concerns to leverage Islamabad's diplomatic contacts and geographic position. Policymakers should recognize Pakistan's growing role as a critical, albeit complex, node for future diplomatic and economic engagement across South Asia and the Middle East.
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115.
Amid global trade fragmentation driven by US protectionism and China's export controls, the EU is proactively adapting by pursuing a 'de-risking' strategy to secure its economic future. Key evidence includes the rapid negotiation of landmark bilateral agreements (e.g., Mercosur, India, Indonesia), which go beyond tariff reduction to establish rules on critical minerals, climate, and labor rights. Strategically, this signals that the EU is solidifying its role as a major global trade hub, leveraging preferential agreements to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on external economic coercion. Policymakers should recognize that the EU's future strategy involves deepening its single market while using these strategic trade pacts to cement its influence in the new, multipolar trade order.
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116.
The article argues that the U.S. economy is facing a severe downturn, risking stagflation, driven by a confluence of global and domestic shocks. The primary catalyst is the Iran conflict and the resulting disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which has created a major global supply shock, spiking energy and agricultural input costs. These external pressures, combined with domestic vulnerabilities like tech layoffs, private credit risks, and tariff uncertainty, are fueling inflation and slowing growth. Policymakers must urgently address supply chain resilience and energy security, as the resulting economic instability is poised to become a critical political issue during the upcoming midterm elections, complicating the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
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117.
Major General Lervik argues that landpower is essential for deterrence, arguing that Norway's strategic location and the heightened threat from Russia necessitate a fundamental shift in defense posture. The key evidence for this change is the realization of Russia's aggressive capabilities, particularly following the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a unanimous parliamentary decision to more than double defense spending and significantly expand military capacity. Strategically, this mandates that the Norwegian Army focus on robust homeland defense while also taking greater responsibility for the entire Nordic region, thereby reinforcing NATO's collective security commitment in the face of geopolitical tension.
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118.
U.S. special forces conducted a maritime strike exercise in the Luzon Strait, deploying advanced, explosive-laden unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and other drone systems. This deployment, utilizing technology similar to those seen in the Black Sea, demonstrates the integration of low-range, mass-strike capabilities into U.S.-Philippine joint operations. Strategically, this signals the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's preparation for a "hellscape" concept—relying on overwhelming drone saturation to counter potential Chinese naval forces. This escalation increases military readiness and regional tension in the critical Taiwan flashpoint.
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119.
The article argues that the rapidly expanding nuclear capabilities of China, coupled with its refusal to engage in arms control talks, are replacing the bipolar nuclear order with a destabilizing tripolar dynamic. Beijing views a strong deterrent as stabilizing, while the U.S. responds by strengthening its own forces and avoiding treaties that exclude China. This escalating arms race, further complicated by Russia's involvement, is creating an anarchic international security environment. To de-escalate, both powers must move beyond rhetoric and increase concrete transparency, particularly regarding short-range nuclear capabilities, to defuse acute regional risks.
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120.
The article argues that continued maximalist diplomacy has failed, necessitating a comprehensive 'golden bridge' of compromise for lasting U.S.-Iran peace. This framework requires the U.S. to acknowledge Iran's right to peaceful nuclear development while Iran agrees to strict international oversight. Key to the deal is establishing a regional fund, financed by surcharges on goods transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which would finance reconstruction efforts across the Gulf. Implementing this compromise would stabilize the region, normalize relations, and provide a viable alternative to escalating military conflict.
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121.Breaking Barriers Rapid Rehousing Program for Justice-Involved Individuals in Los Angeles County: Local Evaluation Report (RAND)
The evaluation of the Breaking Barriers program found that its robust, individualized supportive services and strong inter-agency collaboration significantly improve housing stability for justice-involved individuals, with retention rates exceeding 80% after one year. While the program successfully met most operational goals, the report emphasizes that progress is severely limited by persistent external systemic barriers, including high housing costs, lack of affordable units, and job discrimination. Policy recommendations stress that while continued flexible case management is vital, long-term success requires systemic interventions, such as expanding permanent supportive housing and addressing structural economic barriers to ensure sustained reentry outcomes.
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122.
The transition to critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) presents a 'new resource curse' far more volatile than the historical oil curse. This risk is amplified by the rapid technological shifts, the geographical concentration of deposits, and the fact that China currently dominates the processing and refining stages for most critical minerals. Unlike the stable, rules-bound oil market, the current geopolitical environment lacks a reliable global governance framework, making supply chains highly susceptible to state-level geopolitical throttling. Policymakers must therefore prepare for unprecedented structural instability, necessitating strategic efforts to diversify supply chains and mitigate risks associated with technological and geopolitical competition.
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123.
The Navy's unfunded priority list for the upcoming fiscal year is notably modest at $602 million, shifting focus from large-scale capability development to essential infrastructure maintenance. Key expenditures are allocated to physical facilities, including specialized bases for submarine maintenance, undersea surveillance command centers, and cyber warfare research labs. This limited scope contrasts sharply with previous years' multi-billion dollar requests, suggesting that while major combat capabilities (such as SM-6s and F-35s) are funded, the immediate strategic priority is ensuring the operational readiness and physical upkeep of critical naval installations. This indicates a focus on sustaining existing operational capacity rather than initiating sweeping, new strategic overhauls.
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124.U.S. Navy Declares Initial Operational Capability for Modified P-8 A Poseidon Patrol Aircraft (USNI)
The U.S. Navy has declared Initial Operational Capability (IOC) for the P-8A Poseidon Increment 3 Block 2, significantly enhancing its maritime intelligence, surveillance, and targeting (ISR&T) capabilities. These advanced platforms are being utilized by allies, such as New Zealand, to conduct patrols in the Yellow and East China Seas to monitor North Korean sanctions evasion. While these joint surveillance efforts enforce international mandates, they have escalated geopolitical friction, prompting China to protest the operations as 'harassment' that threatens its sovereignty. This trend indicates a sustained increase in high-end maritime surveillance operations in the Indo-Pacific, raising the risk of miscalculation between major powers.
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125.
The significant decline in American fentanyl overdose deaths is primarily attributed to a supply shock, rather than increased demand-side interventions like treatment or naloxone availability. Key evidence shows that falling seizure rates and purity levels of fentanyl in both the U.S. and Canada correlate directly with the drop in fatalities. This suggests that the critical constraint is the precursor chemical supply, pointing to increased regulatory control by Chinese authorities. Policymakers must therefore shift focus to the global chemical supply chain, making fentanyl control a critical, enduring feature of US-China diplomatic and counternarcotics negotiations.
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126.
The primary threat to Taiwan is not a traditional military invasion, but rather a sophisticated 'gray zone' coercion utilizing economic and logistical control, such as establishing a quarantine over maritime and air links. China is leveraging this control to restrict key exports, particularly advanced semiconductor components, thereby forcing regional compliance without triggering a full-scale conflict. Consequently, the U.S. must shift its strategic focus from preparing for military war games to developing integrated economic and diplomatic plans with allies. Deterring a severe financial and political crisis requires pre-coordinated responses to cushion market shocks and manage potential partial decoupling from China.
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127.
The Marine Corps is adapting its deployment strategy for SOUTHCOM due to a shortage of traditional amphibious ready groups (ARGs), necessitating the use of alternative, modular platforms. Key evidence includes the planned utilization of specialized vessels like Expeditionary Sea Bases (ESBs) and Spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPFs), alongside a systemic reassessment of the force generation model, which is being extended from a 36-month to a 56-month cycle. Strategically, this signals a shift toward prioritizing flexible, distributed force projection capabilities over large, traditional task forces, allowing the U.S. military to maintain mission readiness in contested areas with fewer assets.
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128.A voluntary export fee (VEF) on pollution: Recovering foreign tax revenue to support US clean manufacturing (Brookings)
The article analyzes the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and proposes a Voluntary Export Fee (VEF) as a strategic U.S. response. The VEF would allow U.S. exporters to pay a voluntary domestic carbon fee, which would then qualify for a credit against the CBAM liabilities levied by the EU. This mechanism redirects projected EU revenue (estimated at up to $400 million annually) back to the U.S. government, providing a politically feasible alternative to a mandatory domestic carbon tax. Implementing the VEF would enable the U.S. to align its trade policy with global decarbonization efforts while simultaneously generating dedicated funds for domestic clean manufacturing and infrastructure.
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129.
The U.S. military's future focus in the Western Hemisphere is shifting from great power competition to combating transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), drug trafficking, and narco-terrorism. This pivot is evidenced by recent threat assessments that prioritize illicit border actors over state rivals, leading to increased joint military operations and intelligence sharing with regional allies. Strategically, the U.S. will continue to deepen military cooperation through joint training and counter-cartel campaigns. However, the article cautions that sustained success requires coupling these security efforts with broader diplomatic and economic initiatives to address local concerns regarding sovereignty and human rights.
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130.
The analysis argues that while U.S. sanctions are powerful tools for geopolitical leverage, they inevitably generate unintended loopholes, exemplified by the 'shadow fleet.' Enforcement strategies must be highly tailored, ranging from the banking-focused 'carrot and stick' model used against Iran, to the price-cap mechanism implemented against Russia. This shift demonstrates that modern sanctions must balance punitive goals with the critical need to maintain global energy market stability. Policymakers must therefore design sophisticated regimes that prevent market shocks while achieving strategic objectives.
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131.Chatham House Debate: Is China the primary threat to global stability in the next decade? (Chatham House)
The Chatham House debate reveals that while China's rapid military modernization, technological ambitions, and efforts to reshape global norms pose a fundamental challenge to the international order, labeling it the sole primary threat is an oversimplification. Experts debated whether the challenge is purely geopolitical or if it is complicated by China's deep integration into the global economy and its role in addressing transnational issues like climate change. The consensus is that the challenge is multifaceted, stemming from complex great power competition rather than an inevitable path to conflict. Policymakers must therefore adopt a nuanced strategy that addresses multiple, interconnected risks shaping a fragmented international system.
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132.
Facing global market shocks triggered by vulnerabilities in critical mineral and energy mega chokepoints, Japan is initiating a comprehensive economic security reset. This strategic pivot is driven by geopolitical risks, such as potential disruptions in rare earth supplies or energy flows through key straits. To buttress national resilience, the Takaichi administration plans to update its security legislation, establish a new national intelligence agency, and integrate defense promotion into its industrial policy. These measures signal a heightened focus on strategic autonomy and deepening economic security cooperation with allied nations, particularly the United States.
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133.The Strait of Hormuz energy crisis shows the EU’s carbon pricing is the right approach (Chatham House)
The energy crisis stemming from the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates the profound vulnerability of relying on volatile fossil fuel imports. The analysis argues that the EU's existing carbon pricing mechanism, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), is the essential long-term solution, as it has proven effective in driving decarbonization and reducing emissions while generating revenue for clean energy investments. Policymakers must therefore strengthen the ETS and prioritize coordinated joint procurement of resources to mitigate geopolitical shocks. Ad-hoc national subsidies, conversely, risk undermining the 'polluter pays principle' and fragmenting the European market.
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134.
AI adoption is identified as the primary driver of global economic competitiveness, shifting the focus from model development to effective, widespread deployment across sectors. While AI holds massive productive potential—estimated at up to $6.6 trillion across major economies—this potential is hampered by existing skills gaps and labor market rigidity. Therefore, the key policy imperative is coordinated action: governments, businesses, and educational institutions must collaborate to create responsive labor markets. This strategy is essential to rapidly upskill the global workforce, ensuring that talent can match economic opportunity and build a resilient, productive economy in the AI era.
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135.
The article argues that the US withdrawal from international bodies like UNESCO and its shift toward hard power are eroding its global soft power influence, creating a vacuum that China is actively filling. Key evidence includes China's appointment of leaders to global educational roles, its sustained soft power investments via the Belt and Road Initiative, and its decisive domestic expansion of education and AI regulations for minors. The implication is that the US risks ceding global leadership in critical areas like AI governance and educational standards to Beijing. Policymakers are advised that the US must re-engage in global forums and learn from international models to counter this decline in influence.
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136.
The conflict with Iran demonstrated that US forward military bases are highly vulnerable to sustained attacks, regardless of the US's conventional military overmatch. Iran leveraged its proximity and ability to launch missiles and drones against multiple US bases across the region, forcing the Pentagon to consider remote operations. This vulnerability necessitates a strategic reevaluation of the operational value of large, forward-deployed bases, raising questions about their utility in modern conflict and potentially impacting basing strategies across both the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.
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137.India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that while the Indus Waters Treaty is currently strained by geopolitical tensions and climate change, re-engaging on shared water resources is critical for achieving lasting peace between India and Pakistan. The treaty's stability is threatened by rapid glacial retreat, mounting water demand, and the politicization of resource management. Drawing lessons from global water governance successes, the report advises that international actors must elevate water management from a technical issue to a core pillar of diplomacy, providing technical assistance to stabilize the region and build confidence.
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138.
Global public trust in vaccines is declining significantly, posing a major threat to decades of immunization progress. This skepticism is fueled by the proliferation of misinformation and the increasing politicization of public health, manifesting in partisan divides (e.g., the U.S.) and across multiple regions. The consequences are already visible, including the loss of measles elimination status in several European countries and rising outbreaks. Policymakers must therefore treat vaccine hesitancy not merely as a medical issue, but as a complex challenge requiring strategies to counter misinformation and rebuild public trust and political will.
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139.
Pakistan's emergence as a mediator between the US and Iran is less about regional diplomacy and more about structural necessity and strategic gain. The nation's near-bankrupt economy and heavy reliance on energy imports compel Islamabad to leverage its mediation role to secure international bailouts. Key to this strategy is the close personal rapport between the US administration and the powerful military establishment, which Pakistan is using to attract massive US investment in critical minerals, cryptocurrency, and counter-terrorism cooperation. Consequently, Pakistan's mediation efforts are highly transactional, aiming to stabilize its economy and bolster its military-industrial complex rather than purely achieving regional peace.
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140.
The expiration of the U.S.-Iran truce is marked by significant diplomatic uncertainty, despite preparations for potential talks in Pakistan. Key evidence suggests that negotiations are complicated by internal divisions within Iran's leadership and the volatile actions of regional powers, including Israel and the U.S. The core finding is that while the logic for peace exists, the lack of unified, compromising leadership across the region makes achieving a stable diplomatic resolution highly improbable. Consequently, the geopolitical environment remains fragile, increasing the risk of continued tension or conflict.
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141.
North Korea's regime stability is maintained through a complex blend of authoritarian internal control, dynastic ideology, and strategic geopolitical alignment. The Kim dynasty has successfully leveraged this model across generations by deepening ties with major external powers, including Russia, China, and Iran, to navigate a shifting global order. Analysis of the regime's evolving ideology and domestic policy drivers is critical for understanding its current trajectory. Ultimately, tracking these internal and external pressures is key to predicting regional instability and the challenges associated with potential future leadership transitions.
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142.
Taiwan's progress in building defense resilience and leveraging its status as a tech superpower is being undermined by deep political polarization. While the island has enhanced its military readiness and economic ties with the U.S., the inability to pass a special defense budget due to internal political disputes creates a critical vulnerability. This impasse allows China to exert pressure, making it difficult for Taiwan to maintain deterrence and invest in necessary defense capabilities. Strategically, Taiwan must prioritize internal political consensus to fund its defense and resilience efforts, thereby eliminating coercion as a viable option for Beijing and forcing dialogue.
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143.
Despite the failure of recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, the analysis suggests that the mutual reluctance of both sides to resume open conflict indicates a strong underlying desire for peace. The U.S. response—imposing a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz—is intended to create significant economic and diplomatic pain, forcing Tehran to concede to American terms. However, the effectiveness of this coercion is questionable, as such campaigns take time to materialize. Strategically, the situation remains volatile, suggesting that while high-level diplomacy is ongoing, the potential for renewed hostilities persists.
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144.A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that a crisis over Taiwan poses a far greater global economic threat than a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This risk stems from Taiwan's pivotal role as the world's leading producer of advanced semiconductors, which are critical, non-substitutable components for modern AI and electronics. A blockade or conflict could trigger a catastrophic global GDP decline, necessitating urgent policy action. To mitigate this, Europe must accelerate the diversification of semiconductor supply chains, deepen intelligence and technical cooperation with Taiwan, and actively communicate the severe global costs of escalation to Beijing.
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145.
The report identifies a critical "missing middle" gap, estimated at $100-$200 billion, where emerging energy technologies struggle to transition from small-scale proof-of-concept to commercial deployment due to perceived investment risk. This gap is exacerbated by global economic shifts, such as inflation and rising interest rates, which make large-scale, high-risk capital difficult to secure. To bridge this, the authors argue that relying solely on private investment is insufficient, necessitating a multi-faceted approach. Policy solutions must combine public demand guarantees (federal and state level) with private risk-transfer mechanisms, such as new insurance models, to de-risk projects and stimulate diverse capital flows. The successful scaling of energy innovation requires a combination of policy support and private sector action, rather than any single solution.
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146.Chatham House fellow gives evidence on China and critical minerals to UK Parliament Business and Trade sub-Committee (Chatham House)
A Chatham House fellow warned that the UK's reliance on China for critical minerals constitutes a severe economic vulnerability, which Beijing could weaponize to exert significant economic coercion. He argued that the optimum policy must be hybrid, requiring the UK to first identify its main vulnerabilities and then formulate detailed strategies to mitigate foreign exploitation. To build resilience, the UK must cooperate with allies to establish rare earth supply chains insulated from China, actively court foreign investment for domestic mining and refining, and support product recycling to diversify sources.
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147.
The indefinite ceasefire extension has resulted in a protracted stalemate, as both the US and Iran maintain maximalist demands, with Iran continuing to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran's military capabilities are degraded, the ongoing tension forces Gulf states to pivot their development investments toward robust defense capabilities. Strategically, the US faces resource limitations that preclude a long-term, indefinite blockade, suggesting that the conflict will persist as a source of chronic regional instability. Therefore, future policy must focus on balancing limited military resources with the necessity of maintaining pressure on Iran's economic and geopolitical leverage points.
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148.
The Brookings panel argues that while Chinese investment in clean energy presents layered strategic risks, a blanket restriction is unnecessary. Key concerns include China's overwhelming dominance in critical clean energy supply chains and minerals, which creates significant economic dependency. While hard security risks may necessitate decoupling in critical technologies, other risks can be managed by implementing dual-sourced supply chains for components. Policy should therefore adopt a nuanced, risk-based approach, allowing partnerships where U.S. benefits and climate goals outweigh the identified dangers.
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149.
Tensions between Iran and the U.S. remain critically high, despite temporary ceasefires, fueled by recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz. Key evidence includes the U.S. seizure of Iranian cargo vessels and reciprocal drone attacks by Iran in the Gulf of Oman, while diplomatic efforts are stalled by Iran's rejection of proposals regarding its enriched uranium stockpile. The primary implication is that regional stability and global energy flow are highly vulnerable; the true economic impact hinges on the duration of the ceasefire and the success of sustained diplomatic efforts to normalize maritime traffic.
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150.
The recent U.S.-Iran peace talks failed due to irreconcilable red lines, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The subsequent U.S. blockade, intended to exert economic pressure, is proving ineffective and creates significant global diplomatic and economic instability. The analysis suggests that the current strategy of military pressure or blockades is unlikely to force Iran's hand and risks escalating into a broader conflict. Consequently, the U.S. must pivot away from simple punitive measures and re-examine its diplomatic options to manage the crisis without triggering a wider war.
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151.
The article emphasizes that maintaining Antarctica as a peaceful scientific reserve requires urgent, coordinated international governance, particularly as tourism and climate change increase pressure on the continent. Key challenges highlighted include managing the rapidly growing number of visitors, protecting vulnerable species (like emperor penguins), and addressing cumulative environmental impacts. Policy strategies must therefore focus on strengthening the Antarctic Treaty system through enhanced transparency, improving data sharing via the Electronic Information Exchange System (EIES), and establishing comprehensive frameworks for non-governmental activities. Ultimately, effective governance depends on multilateral diplomacy and scientific cooperation to monitor global environmental changes and build trust among signatory nations.
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152.Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt: Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency (RAND)
This RAND report identifies agricultural security in the U.S. Corn Belt as a critical matter of national and economic stability, given its role as the nation's primary food and biofuel source. The region faces complex, interacting threats, including biological pathogens, extreme climate variability, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the risk of agroterrorism. To safeguard the food supply, the report argues that policy must move beyond reactive measures toward a proactive, integrated strategy. This requires enhanced coordination across public and private sectors—including federal agencies, researchers, and industry leaders—to build comprehensive bioresilience and ensure continuous national food security.
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153.
AI adoption is a bipartisan priority within the federal government, showing significant growth in reported use cases across various agencies. However, the report finds that adoption remains uneven, heavily concentrated in large agencies, and is significantly constrained by structural bottlenecks. Key challenges include workforce capacity limitations, a risk-averse culture, and systemic issues in procurement and funding. To accelerate responsible deployment, policy must focus on expanding technical talent and AI literacy, streamlining outdated acquisition processes, and enhancing transparency to build public trust in high-impact AI systems.
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154.
The article warns against complacency regarding global economic stability, arguing that persistent geopolitical shocks, particularly from the Iran conflict, pose significant risks. Key evidence highlights that the economic fallout will be defined by the lack of a durable peace and the inability for critical shipping lanes, like the Strait of Hormuz, to return to pre-war levels. Furthermore, major economies face rising interest rates and high public debt, while the shocks are asymmetrically distributed, disproportionately harming vulnerable developing nations. Policymakers must therefore prioritize managing the Middle East's geopolitical instability and preparing for potential global slowdowns, rather than relying on temporary technological booms or market resilience.
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155.
The Spanish-American War was less about Cuba and more about the United States' transition from a regional power to a global one. This shift was driven by a confluence of factors: rapid industrialization creating economic ambition, a desire to project power beyond the Western Hemisphere, and heightened nationalistic fervor, often amplified by the sensationalism of the 'yellow press.' The conflict demonstrated the U.S.'s capacity for military intervention and established its role as a major world power. Strategically, this event marked the permanent expansion of U.S. foreign policy interests, moving beyond the confines of the Monroe Doctrine and setting the stage for global engagement.
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156.
The Iran War is accelerating a major trend: the formation of a powerful, global network of authoritarian collaboration, spearheaded by China and Russia. This collaboration is evident through critical military and economic support provided to Iran, and is strategically advancing the goal of global dedollarization, exemplified by Iran's use of the yuan in the Strait of Hormuz. Policy implications suggest that the world is moving toward a post-U.S. world order, challenging democratic institutions and traditional alliances. Policymakers must recognize that this growing autocracy bloc is defying historical assumptions about international cooperation and poses a systemic threat to the existing global order.
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157.U.S. Considering Foreign Designs, Shipyards for New Navy Frigate, Destroyer Work in $1.85 B Study (USNI)
The U.S. Department of Defense is proposing a major study to explore using foreign designs and shipbuilding yards, particularly those in Japan and South Korea, for future U.S. frigates and destroyers. This initiative is driven by the Pentagon's urgent need to increase naval shipbuilding capacity and deliver ships faster than current domestic yards can manage. The policy implication is a potential strategic shift away from exclusively domestic construction, signaling a willingness to leverage allied industrial bases to maintain the fleet's readiness and modernize the U.S. Navy's surface combatant inventory.
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158.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have effectively paralyzed maritime shipping in the Middle East, as both powers engage in escalating interdictions and seizures of vessels. The U.S. is expanding its enforcement reach by interdicting sanctioned ships in the Indian Ocean, while Iran is matching these actions within the Strait of Hormuz, using fast attack craft to assert control. This strategic competition is not merely about blockades but serves to bolster negotiating positions regarding regional control and global trade routes. The resulting instability significantly disrupts global supply chains, necessitating heightened vigilance and potentially forcing global powers to reconsider maritime security strategies in the region.
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159.
North Korea conducted another test launch of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), this time armed with cluster munitions, demonstrating an aggressive push to modernize its arsenal. The key evidence includes the launch of five tactical missiles toward an island in the Sea of Japan, confirming the operational use and capabilities of these new warheads. This repeated testing significantly escalates regional tensions and constitutes a clear violation of international norms, necessitating continued heightened military vigilance. Strategically, the development and deployment of cluster munitions raise concerns about the proliferation of indiscriminate weapons and underscore the urgent need for coordinated deterrence and diplomatic pressure from regional partners.
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160.
Australia plans a substantial increase in defense spending of $37.9 billion over the next decade, driven by concerns over the weakening international rules-based order. The strategy identifies rising geopolitical strain and the growing military power of revisionist states, particularly China, as the primary destabilizing forces in the Indo-Pacific. To counter this, Australia will deepen its military capabilities through major investments in AUKUS projects, advanced naval assets, and strengthening alliances with the United States. This shift signals a more assertive regional posture aimed at maintaining collective deterrence and securing national interests amidst increasing regional rivalry.
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161.
The U.S. Navy has finalized plans to integrate Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3 MSE) missiles onto its Aegis-equipped destroyers and cruisers. This upgrade leverages the existing Mark 41 VLS and Aegis Combat System to significantly boost naval air defense capabilities. The decision is driven by the high tempo of recent conflicts in the Middle East and the strategic necessity of reinforcing U.S. defenses against advanced threats. Crucially, the integration is designed to counter evolving anti-ship and hypersonic missile capabilities posed by adversaries, particularly China and Russia, in the Indo-Pacific theater.
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162.
The RAND evaluation concludes that depot buprenorphine (DB) provision has expanded markedly in England following new grant funding, exhibiting a rapid, S-shaped uptake curve. Key evidence shows a sharp increase in provision, with recipients often being younger women with lower disability rates compared to other opioid substitution treatment groups. The report advises policymakers that while DB offers benefits like improved adherence, its high cost and limited real-world evidence base require careful management. Therefore, the findings are intended to guide the Department of Health and Social Care in optimizing the provision of this long-acting injectable treatment to maximize recovery outcomes and ensure cost-effectiveness.
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163.The barriers and facilitators to supporting, commissioning and working with Lived Experience Recovery Organisations in systems of care in England (RAND)
The report argues that Lived Experience Recovery Organisations (LEROs) are vital components of recovery-oriented systems of care, but their integration is hampered by systemic barriers, primarily a lack of consistent definition among stakeholders. Key evidence shows that the sustainability and autonomy of LEROs are highly dependent on funding models; stable, direct commissioning is crucial, whereas fragmented or short-term grants lead to instability and limited visibility. For policy, the findings imply that authorities must standardize LERO definitions and shift away from fragmented funding. Strategic commissioning must prioritize direct, ring-fenced allocations to ensure LEROs maintain autonomy and consistent engagement within the local care system.
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164.
This methods report details the rigorous evaluation framework for the UK's Drug Strategy Investment in Treatment and Recovery (D-SITAR). The study employs a comprehensive mixed-methods approach, integrating administrative data, local authority records, and extensive input from public and expert advisory groups across six priority areas. By utilizing Implementation Research Logic Models, the evaluation aims to rigorously assess the effectiveness and implementation of major public health interventions, such as workforce transformation and depot buprenorphine provision. The resulting evidence will be critical for the Department of Health and Social Care to refine, optimize, and guide future national drug treatment policies and resource allocation in England.
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165.
The U.S. Navy successfully tested the JDAM Long Range (GBU-75), a guided munition that significantly extends strike capability to 300 nautical miles, far exceeding current anti-ship missiles. This development addresses the critical need for greater standoff range, allowing naval aviation to maintain a tactical advantage when facing near-peer adversaries with advanced air and missile defense networks. Furthermore, the munition's mining variant provides a potent area denial capability, which is strategically viewed as a countermeasure against potential Chinese landings and naval movements in critical chokepoints. This enhanced range and dual-mission capability bolster U.S. force projection and deterrence in contested maritime environments.
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166.U.S. Army Stages Equipment at American-owned Subic Bay Facility for Balikatan, Alliance Contingencies (USNI)
The U.S. Army is significantly expanding its logistical and staging footprint at Subic Bay, Philippines, utilizing a private, American-owned facility for joint exercises and alliance contingencies. This increased presence involves staging sensitive military assets and requiring armed security support for complex logistics operations (LOGCAP). Strategically, this development solidifies the U.S. military commitment to the Philippines, enhancing its ability to project power and counter perceived Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific theater.
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167.
Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo argues that the recent conflict with Iran, despite diverting assets, provides valuable lessons that will strengthen U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The conflict demonstrated the power of asymmetric warfare and low-cost munitions, a capability that adversaries like China are studying for potential use against Taiwan. To maintain regional stability and 'overmatch' China's expected military expansion, the U.S. must urgently increase defense spending, modernize its fleet, and encourage the rapid innovation and production of advanced, non-traditional weapons systems.
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168.Implementation of the Treatment and Recovery Portfolio of the 'From Harm to Hope' drug strategy in England: Results from a process evaluation (RAND)
This RAND process evaluation assesses the implementation of the 'From Harm to Hope' Treatment and Recovery Portfolio in England, analyzing the centralized distribution of £780 million in funding to local authorities. The study uses a mixed-methods approach to determine if the national strategy was executed as intended, focusing on the mechanisms by which central government guidance influenced local service delivery. Key findings identify specific pathways that are effective and highlight structural challenges in the current funding and governance model. The report provides critical policy recommendations aimed at improving the central delivery structure to optimize the national drug strategy and enhance local treatment outcomes.
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169.Factors that influence employees' perceptions and experiences of working within the treatment and recovery sector in England (RAND)
This RAND evaluation assesses the implementation of England's major workforce transformation program for drug and alcohol treatment and recovery. The study argues that employee perceptions and job sustainability are critically influenced by a combination of contextual resources and staff attitudes, analyzed through the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. Key findings highlight that simply increasing funding is insufficient; true sustainability requires systemic improvements in service delivery. Policymakers must therefore prioritize developing clear career pathways, improving supervision quality, and managing caseloads to stabilize the workforce and ensure consistent, high-quality care.
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170.Traders, Speculators, and Captains of Industry: How Capitalist Legitimacy Shaped Foreign Investment Policy in India (Foreign Affairs)
The analysis argues that India's foreign investment policy is not driven by a single ideology but by a selective assessment of 'capitalist legitimacy.' New Delhi distinguishes between suspect speculative capital (viewed as unethical market manipulation) and desirable industrial capital (linked to innovation and production). This selective approach explains how the state has historically fostered productive investment while maintaining regulatory controls against financial speculation. The key implication for policy is the structural paradox: the continued dominance of speculative capital suggests a significant gap between the state's normative economic goals and the actual functioning of the Indian economy.
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171.
The analysis details how the British partitioning of the Indian Empire, spanning multiple phases, disregarded existing ethnic and cultural realities. This arbitrary border drawing transformed complex, syncretic societies into rigid nationalistic entities, leading to mass displacement and conflict. The resulting geopolitical boundaries are therefore not merely administrative lines, but primary sources of deep-seated regional instability. Policymakers must recognize that state boundaries drawn without regard for local demographics are key drivers of conflict and require nuanced diplomatic engagement.
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172.Asia’s Aging Security: How Demographic Change Affects America’s Allies and Adversaries (Foreign Affairs)
The publication challenges the concept of 'geriatric peace,' arguing instead for an 'aging security dilemma' in East Asia. As aging populations cause states to fear military weakness, they compensate by rapidly developing advanced weapons and automation, thereby sustaining or intensifying their security posture. This arms race, exemplified by Japan's focus on advanced platforms, increases regional concern and creates a dangerous cocktail of tensions, especially when combined with cyber threats and shifting alliances. Policymakers must analyze how different Asian states adapt their military doctrines and procurement choices to anticipate and mitigate escalating regional instability.
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173.
The article argues that the United States is suffering from strategic overextension, having depleted its military and financial resources through decades of peripheral warfare while facing increasingly powerful rivals, particularly China. This overextension, coupled with massive national debt, makes the U.S. incapable of fighting multiple major powers simultaneously. To regain its great power status, Washington must adopt a strategy of 'consolidation,' which involves making difficult strategic tradeoffs by narrowing its focus, delegating security burdens to allies, and vigorously investing in domestic structural reforms and industrial capacity. Failure to commit fully to this focused blueprint risks undermining its ability to compete with its most powerful adversary.
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174.
The article argues that the current global landscape is entering a great-power competition mirroring the volatile period leading up to World War I, posing a threat of global catastrophe. Key evidence includes rising nationalism, deep mutual suspicion between major powers (US, China, Russia), and unresolved flashpoints across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Policymakers must adopt sophisticated, historically informed strategies to navigate this tension, recognizing the 'paradox of preparation'—where fear itself can trigger conflict—to prevent a systemic breakdown of international order.
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175.
This piece argues that cultural identity and belonging are fluid, complex phenomena that defy the rigid boundaries of modern nation-states. The author's personal history—moving across Java, Malaysia, and China—serves as evidence that human identity is shaped by diasporic experience rather than fixed borders. For policy analysis, the core implication is that geopolitical strategies must account for cultural inheritance and transnational loyalties, particularly in the volatile South China Sea region. Policymakers should therefore avoid relying solely on narrow nationalist definitions when assessing regional stability or ethnic group movements.
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176.
The article identifies 'democratic backsliding' as a global trend where elected leaders systematically undermine their own democratic systems to consolidate executive power. This decay is evidenced by leaders employing a common playbook: attacking or subverting core institutions such as the press, courts, civil service, and oversight bodies, thereby eroding the rule of law and public trust. While the threat is severe, the analysis concludes that democracy is not irreversible. Policy efforts must therefore focus on supporting institutional actors—including judges, civil servants, and whistleblowers—while emphasizing that the ultimate bulwark against antidemocratic threats remains the vigilance of the electorate and free elections.
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177.
The reviewed literature argues that the history of nuclear weapons is defined by a tension between military buildup and the establishment of a 'nuclear taboo' against use. Scholars trace this history by detailing how initial reluctance (Wellerstein) and subsequent arms control agreements (Holloway) managed great power competition. Crucially, the texts warn that efforts to manage proliferation or deter adversaries often have perverse effects, such as limiting conventional capabilities or reinforcing instability. Policymakers must therefore recognize that over-reliance on nuclear deterrence or unilateral control measures can complicate crisis management and undermine long-term stability.
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178.
The potential meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is viewed as a critical moment for global order. The reference to the meeting as a "G-2" suggests that Washington and Beijing are positioning themselves to jointly set the terms for regional and global governance. This dynamic has drawn immediate attention from key allies, such as Australia and Japan. The implication is that the future stability and structure of the global order hinge significantly on the outcomes and dynamics of the US-China relationship.
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179.
The ongoing conflict in Iran is viewed as a global indicator of the receding influence and diminishing strategic capacity of the United States. While the war causes immediate material shocks, such as global energy crises and inflation, its deeper significance is the acceleration of a multipolar shift away from US hegemony. The resulting power vacuum is being filled by alternative global players, including China, Gulf states, and Japan, which are providing critical infrastructure investment and trade to the Global South. Consequently, regional powers are increasingly diversifying their partnerships, making the future of key regions, such as Latin America, less dependent on, and less controllable by, the United States.
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180.
The article argues that the U.S.-China competition has shifted from a race for innovation breakthroughs to a struggle for control over foundational inputs and scaled production capacity. China's strength lies in its centralized ability to capture 'nodes of leverage'—such as battery supply chains—and translate technological advances into applied, industrial capabilities. To counter this, the U.S. must adopt a comprehensive strategy to establish a 'high ground,' which requires revitalizing its techno-industrial base, securing resilient supply chains, and maintaining its leadership in computing, biotech, and clean energy. Ultimately, U.S. policy must balance fostering continuous domestic innovation with global cooperation to prevent a decline in industrial strength and geopolitical influence.
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181.
The article argues that the United States' post-WWII strategy of establishing permanent alliances, such as NATO, represents a strategic anomaly. While these commitments were effective during the Cold War for consolidating U.S. dominance, the author suggests they now constrain American policy. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. is reportedly bound by these long-term agreements, which may sacrifice necessary adaptability. This over-reliance on permanent pacts potentially endangers the nation's overall strategic security and flexibility.
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182.
China's high-tech drive has resulted in undeniable, though uneven, progress, significantly boosting its global innovation capacity and international influence. Key evidence includes China's rising Global Innovation Index ranking, surpassing the U.S. in R&D spending, and becoming a core leader in setting global mobile broadband standards. However, the analysis notes persistent weaknesses in institutional quality, advanced semiconductors, and complex manufacturing sectors like commercial aircraft. Strategically, the report advises that the U.S. should abandon a policy of consistent decoupling in favor of "calibrated coupling," while simultaneously strengthening coordination with like-minded global partners to maximize national security and economic benefits.
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183.
Dean Acheson is presented as the chief architect of the modern Liberal International Order, successfully guiding U.S. policy away from isolationism toward global engagement. His key contributions—including backing the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, and NATO—demonstrate a commitment to multilateral alliances and robust international intervention. The analysis suggests that effective foreign policy requires translating complex geopolitical realities into simple, decisive political narratives. Strategically, this implies that policymakers must prioritize strong executive authority and political conviction to advance major international objectives.
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184.
The article argues that U.S. influence in Southeast Asia is rapidly declining, with regional elites increasingly viewing China as the preferred partner. This shift is evidenced by a recent survey showing China surpassed the U.S. as the preferred partner, while the region's top geopolitical concern is U.S. global leadership instability. The decline is attributed to the U.S.'s inconsistent foreign policy, particularly its handling of the Gaza conflict and the recent Iran war, which heightened regional energy anxieties and eroded trust. Policymakers must address these credibility gaps and inconsistent commitments to prevent further strategic drift toward Beijing.
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185.
Global AI governance is rapidly maturing, with major economies establishing comprehensive national standards for AI deployment across critical sectors. China is spearheading this effort by releasing detailed standards for humanoid robots and integrating AI across its entire economic plan, while regional players like Singapore and Vietnam are updating guidelines for use in healthcare and education. Strategically, the focus is shifting to energy infrastructure, with India and Australia mandating energy storage and setting strict standards for data centers. These developments signal that technological advancement is no longer sector-specific but is inextricably linked to mandatory grid modernization and sustainable power sources.
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186.
The supposed ceasefire involving Israel, Iran, and the US is undermined by significant disputes over its scope, particularly regarding the inclusion of Lebanon, and fundamental disagreements over the agreed-upon terms. Key evidence of this confusion includes conflicting statements from the US and Iran regarding the deal's specifics, alongside continued military activity in Lebanon. This instability suggests the truce is highly fragile, implying that regional tensions remain elevated and that diplomatic efforts must account for Iran's continued strategic leverage over critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
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187.
While the conflict successfully degraded Iran's military capabilities, the analysis concludes that the war's true strategic failure was its inability to neutralize Iran's ability to weaponize critical maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. Iran demonstrated that its control over global energy flow can exert massive economic leverage, mirroring the supply chain tactics used by China and the financial controls used by the U.S. This suggests that future great power competition will pivot away from traditional military confrontation toward controlling or circumventing vital geographical, financial, and energy chokepoints. Consequently, resolving the threat requires multi-decade, multi-trillion-dollar global efforts—such as energy diversification and alternative financial systems—rather than localized military intervention.
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188.
The article argues that the use of export controls has dangerously shifted from a limited national security tool to a broad instrument of economic statecraft, fueling an escalating 'arms race' between the U.S. and China. Key evidence highlights how both nations have weaponized controls—using advanced chips, AI restrictions, and rare earths as bargaining chips in trade negotiations. This tit-for-tat escalation severely erodes the credibility and legitimacy of U.S. export controls, undermining their intended purpose of securing national interests. Policymakers must address this instability, as the current approach hinders multilateral cooperation and risks global economic stability.
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189.What lessons will China, India and other Asian nations draw from the Iran war? Independent Thinking Podcast (Chatham House)
The Iran conflict highlights the acute vulnerability of Asian economies due to their heavy reliance on Gulf energy imports. The immediate threat of the Strait of Hormuz closure demonstrates how quickly global choke points can trigger widespread shortages and rationing. Strategically, this forces Asian nations to undertake deep reckonings regarding their supply chains, economic dependencies, and the reliability of the US as a stable ally. Ultimately, the crisis compels Beijing, India, and Southeast Asia to reassess regional energy integration and geopolitical risk.
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190.
NASA's Artemis II mission successfully returned four astronauts to Earth on April 11, 2026, after a 10-day lunar fly-by that took them within 4,067 miles of the moon's surface — the first crewed lunar mission since Apollo. The U.S. Navy executed the ocean recovery using USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26), with EOD divers, medical corpsmen, and HSC-23 helicopters stabilizing the Orion capsule and hoisting the crew to safety, drawing on training partnerships with NASA dating back to 2013. The successful recovery validates the Navy's critical role in human spaceflight operations and sets the stage for future Artemis missions, though Artemis III has been restructured to focus on low-Earth orbit docking tests before any lunar surface landing, with no launch date yet set.
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191.UPDATED: Two U.S. Warships Sail Through Strait of Hormuz to Establish New Route for Merchant Ships (USNI)
Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to begin mine-clearing operations and establish a safe passage for commercial shipping, followed by President Trump's announcement of a full naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 13. The Navy is marshaling mine countermeasures assets—including LCS with MCM packages, legacy Avenger-class minesweepers redeployed from Japan, and EOD units—while strait transits remain below 10% of normal flow and hundreds of vessels are stranded in the Persian Gulf. The blockade and mine-clearing effort represent a major escalation in U.S. pressure on Iran, with significant implications for global energy transit, freedom of navigation, and the trajectory of U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations.
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192.
U.S. Marines introduced a new distributed logistics approach across the Philippines ahead of Balikatan 2026, using austere ports and civilian barges to move prepositioned equipment from Mindanao to Luzon. The operation included the first-ever offloading of American maritime prepositioning force equipment at Cagayan de Oro and utilized a privately-owned facility at Subic, reflecting a deliberate shift away from traditional logistical nodes vulnerable to Chinese forces in a South China Sea contingency. This expansion of dispersed logistics chains, combined with planned prepositioning sites and fuel storage facilities, signals deepening U.S.-Philippine military integration and a maturing operational concept for sustaining forces across contested archipelagic environments.
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193.
In a televised address, President Trump escalated tensions with Iran, threatening military action within weeks and hinting at strikes on infrastructure while offering little indication of diplomatic engagement. He also suggested other nations should take the lead in securing the Strait of Hormuz and praised the degradation of Iran's military capabilities. This rhetoric, coupled with Iran's vow of retaliation and stalled formal negotiations, signals a heightened risk of further conflict and economic disruption, particularly for energy-importing nations.
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194.
The CFR article highlights a concerning trend: U.S. allies in Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea, are increasingly pursuing nuclear energy and openly discussing developing nuclear weapons. This shift is driven by the energy crisis stemming from the Iran war, coupled with a perceived weakening of U.S. commitment to regional security under the Trump administration. Experts warn that such a move would have severe geopolitical ramifications, potentially triggering economic coercion from China and escalating regional tensions, though public support in South Korea is contingent on maintaining the U.S. alliance.
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195.
Rita Fernández, currently an International Affairs Fellow at CFR and stationed at the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM), recounts her career journey from the U.S.-Mexico border to international diplomacy. Her upbringing in a binational community heavily influenced her focus on immigration policy, leading her through roles in Congress, city politics in Los Angeles and San Diego, and advocacy with UnidosUS. Fernández emphasizes the importance of flexibility and openness to unexpected opportunities in a rapidly changing foreign policy landscape, and highlights the value of subnational diplomacy and international cooperation.
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196.
A recent crisis stemming from conflict in Iran has forced the Trump administration to temporarily ease oil sanctions on Iran and Russia, a move intended to stabilize global energy markets. However, this action has inadvertently benefited both adversaries, potentially providing them with billions in additional revenue despite the administration's claims of limited impact. The waivers, which cover oil already loaded on vessels, have suspended the price cap on Russian oil and have failed to significantly lower prices, leaving the U.S. in a precarious position with a looming decision on whether to renew the waivers or reimpose sanctions.
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197.
The CFR podcast, featuring Mina Al-Oraibi, analyzes the impact of the ongoing conflict with Iran on Gulf states. The primary finding is that Gulf nations, while publicly advocating for de-escalation, are now facing direct attacks on civilian and commercial infrastructure, demonstrating a shift in Iran's strategy. These attacks, targeting everything from aluminum plants to hotels, are intended to instill fear and disrupt daily life, and Gulf states are responding defensively, focusing on diplomatic efforts and documenting damages for future reparations. The podcast highlights a concerning shift in Iranian decision-making power towards the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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198.
According to CFR's analysis, the U.S. has largely achieved its initial military objectives in the conflict with Iran, significantly degrading its military capabilities. However, Iran retains the ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy markets and potentially critical supply chains like helium used in semiconductor manufacturing. While the U.S. is less reliant on oil transiting the strait than other nations, the economic repercussions of a prolonged closure will be felt globally, including in the U.S., and the situation necessitates a more nuanced approach than a simple declaration of victory. The article suggests that the U.S. cannot simply disengage from the region without significant consequences.
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199.
A new Brookings analysis reveals that the energy shocks stemming from the Iran conflict are more severe than initially anticipated, exceeding the scale of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises. While the Strait of Hormuz isn't physically blocked, Iranian actions are disrupting shipping and targeting energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, leading to significant supply shortages and driving up prices, particularly in Asia. The analysis highlights concerns about potential recession and inflation, and warns that the global energy system will be fundamentally altered, with limited spare capacity and a diminished role for Saudi Arabia as a reliable supplier.
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200.
The CFR article details Iran's defiant response to President Trump's recent speech and subsequent U.S. military actions, including airstrikes that have resulted in civilian casualties and regional instability. Iran has condemned Trump's rhetoric at the UN and is preparing a framework with Oman to monitor the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously facing accusations of war crimes related to child recruitment. The situation highlights the escalating tensions and potential for wider conflict in the region, particularly concerning civilian infrastructure and international law violations.
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201.
A CFR analysis reviews the impact of President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, finding they failed to achieve their goal of reducing the U.S. trade deficit and instead increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. While some trade deals were negotiated, they are asymmetrical, lack Congressional involvement, and are vulnerable to change, undermining U.S. trade credibility. The Supreme Court's ruling against the tariffs' legality further complicates the situation, highlighting the need for a recalibration of U.S. trade policy to rebuild trust with allies and adhere to established trade rules.
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202.
According to Brookings' "The Beijing Brief" podcast, the delayed Trump-Xi summit likely stems from a combination of factors, including the Iran conflict and Trump's desire for China's assistance in the Strait of Hormuz. While both Washington and Beijing publicly downplay the delay as a logistical issue, Chinese officials were likely frustrated by the lack of substantive preparation and the unorthodox nature of the postponement. Ultimately, Beijing may view the delay as advantageous, granting them more time and leverage in the relationship, particularly given China's perception of U.S. economic vulnerabilities.
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203.
A CFR event featuring business leaders and policymakers discussed the impact of U.S.-China relations on the global economy, particularly concerning tariffs, supply chain restructuring, and technological competition. Key findings include the significant impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing, China's growing biotech capabilities challenging U.S. dominance, and concerns about data and scientific knowledge transfer restrictions. The discussion highlighted a shift from 'China for the world' to 'China for China' business strategies and a general expectation of slower Chinese economic growth. Policy recommendations include mitigating market access barriers, addressing dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients, and fostering data and scientific knowledge exchange.
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204.
The CFR article details escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with President Trump issuing threats to attack Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. These threats follow a recent incident involving the downing of a U.S. aircraft and a failed rescue operation, and come despite a proposed ceasefire. Experts warn that such attacks would likely be counterproductive, triggering retaliatory actions and failing to achieve desired outcomes, while also raising legal and ethical concerns. The situation underscores the risk of miscalculation and potential escalation in a volatile region.
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205.
According to a CFR analysis, NATO's future is uncertain due to former President Trump's repeated criticisms and threats to withdraw, most recently stemming from disagreements over military action in the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump has successfully pressured NATO members to increase defense spending, his rhetoric undermines the alliance's core principle of collective defense and erodes trust. A U.S. withdrawal, even without formal action, would significantly weaken NATO and diminish U.S. national security, despite continued public support for the alliance.
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206.
The ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran is exacerbating existing weaknesses in the global non-proliferation regime, potentially triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation. Concerns over US commitment to extended deterrence, particularly highlighted by the redeployment of THAAD systems, are fueling discussions about domestic nuclear capabilities in countries like Turkey, Poland, South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. The conflict reinforces the perception that nuclear weapons deter attack, and Iran's potential abandonment of the NPT and development of nuclear weapons could spark a regional arms race.
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207.
Following President Kast's inauguration, Chile is shifting towards a more security-focused approach, with the military taking on a larger role in border control and potentially urban security. The government plans to construct a border wall and trench system to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking, while also exploring military involvement in urban patrols. Despite positive assessments of Kast's security leadership team, challenges remain regarding resource allocation, personnel priorities, and navigating the complex interplay between military and civilian institutions.
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208.
North Korea conducted three consecutive days of weapons tests in early April 2026, including a cluster munitions warhead on the Hwasongpho-11Ka short-range ballistic missile, electromagnetic weapon systems, and mobile anti-aircraft missile systems. KCNA claimed the cluster warhead could destroy targets across 6.5–7 hectares, while South Korea and Japan tracked multiple launches from the Wonsan area toward the Sea of Japan, with at least one failed attempt. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command assessed no immediate threat but the tests prompted close trilateral coordination among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, with Japan lodging a formal protest citing violations of UN Security Council resolutions. Australia's defence minister also highlighted the launches as underscoring the need to maintain Indo-Pacific focus amid competing Middle East crises.
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209.
A French Suffren-class nuclear attack submarine successfully launched and recovered a U.S. Navy Razorback unmanned undersea vehicle (UUV) during trials off Toulon in March 2026, validating the submarine's dry deck shelter for underwater drone operations. The exercise, conducted jointly with U.S. Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Group One, demonstrated that allied submarines can deploy U.S. unmanned assets, expanding operational reach and collective undersea warfare capabilities. The trial reflects a broader NATO-allied trend toward hybrid naval forces integrating crewed platforms with autonomous systems, as evidenced by parallel British efforts to convert RFA Lyme Bay into a drone mothership and the Anglo-French MMCM minehunting program. These developments signal deepening U.S.-European interoperability in undersea warfare and a strategic shift toward distributed, unmanned naval operations that could enhance deterrence and mine countermeasures across contested waters.
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210.
South Korea's ROKS Dosan Ahn Chang-ho (KSS-III class) has docked in Guam on the first leg of its longest-ever submarine voyage, bound for Canada to demonstrate its capabilities for Ottawa's $20-$40 billion Canadian Patrol Submarine Program. The KSS-III is competing against Germany's Type 212CD for a 12-boat contract, with both firms pledging local infrastructure investment and job creation, and a first delivery expected by 2035. The voyage underscores South Korea's aggressive push to become a major global arms exporter, while also signaling deepening Seoul-Ottawa defense ties and broader Indo-Pacific security cooperation ahead of Canada's expected decision by June 2026.
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211.
The Pentagon plans to open a 41-million-gallon Defense Fuel Support Point near Davao in the southern Philippines by 2028, storing naval and aviation fuel to support U.S. military operations. The depot's location on Mindanao offers an alternative refueling point away from South China Sea-facing ports like Subic and Manila that could be vulnerable in a conflict with China, while providing access near the Sulu Sea transit routes used by carrier strike groups. The Davao site is part of a broader network of forward-based refueling hubs—including upcoming depots in Papua New Guinea and Darwin, Australia—designed to strengthen U.S. sustainment capabilities along the first island chain, the primary defense line identified in recent U.S. strategy documents for deterring China in the Indo-Pacific.
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212.
William J. Burns argues that the United States stands at a rare and consequential geopolitical inflection point, characterized by major power competition (China, Russia) and rapid technological change. He warns that the current shift toward hard-power nationalism and the erosion of established alliances and institutions is a form of "slow motion major power suicide." To maintain its global standing, the US must reject this trend and re-embrace a strategy of "enlightened self-interest." This requires blending military strength with soft power, prioritizing the rebuilding of trust among allies, and strengthening institutional cooperation to effectively play its strong hand.
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213.Developing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures of Timely Experience of Diagnosis (PROMOTE-Dx) for Cancer: Survey and Quality Measure Development Report (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMOTE-Dx) to assess the timeliness of cancer diagnosis. Researchers conducted surveys and cognitive interviews with cancer patients and experts to identify factors contributing to diagnostic delays across three intervals: self-appraisal, help-seeking, and the diagnostic process itself. The resulting measures aim to complement existing data sources and provide insights into patient experiences, potentially informing quality improvement initiatives and highlighting the importance of addressing both patient and system-level factors that impact timely diagnosis. The study emphasizes the need to consider pre-health system delays (patient knowledge, fear) alongside health system delays (appointment availability, insurance coverage).
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214.A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence (RAND)
This RAND report assesses the U.S. Air Force's efforts to establish a Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence and identifies capability gaps hindering its effectiveness. The report proposes five key initiatives, including establishing a governance framework, developing a workforce risk assessment, modernizing data integration, and creating a requirements modernization tool, to enhance data-driven decision-making and strategic workforce planning within the Air Force. Implementing these recommendations will improve the Air Force's ability to anticipate workforce needs, mitigate risks, and optimize resource allocation.
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215.
Secretary of State William Seward negotiated the 1867 purchase of Russian America (Alaska) for $7.2 million through a night-long negotiation with Russian minister Baron Eduard de Stoeckl. Critics initially mocked the deal as "Seward's Folly," viewing it as wasteful spending on a frozen wasteland, but the acquisition proved strategically brilliant by expanding U.S. territory, pushing Russia out of North America, and generating enormous wealth through subsequent gold and oil discoveries. Seward's vision was to dominate the northern Pacific and establish U.S. strategic control over trade routes to Asia, reflecting his broader Manifest Destiny ambitions. The deal ultimately demonstrated that territorial expansion requires patience and foresight to recognize long-term strategic value despite immediate criticism.
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216.
Operation Epic Fury has expended 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks—the largest single-campaign expenditure in U.S. naval history—depleting approximately half of available regional launchers at a cost of $3.6 million per missile. The Navy can only replenish 110 Tomahawks annually despite possessing low-3,000s stockpiles, and ships cannot reload at sea, requiring extended port maintenance. This accelerated depletion creates near-term strategic vulnerability for the United States in other theaters, particularly the Western Pacific, as inventory constraints may limit future military options and contingency response capacity.
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217.
President Trump has extended his pause on threatening Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6, signaling an attempt at diplomacy amidst the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. This delay has significant global economic implications, with projections of increased inflation and discussions about potentially diverting aid from Ukraine to the Middle East. Concurrently, international efforts are focused on securing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining support for Ukraine, highlighted by a new security cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Ukraine.
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218.
U.S. allies in Europe and Japan are largely declining to actively join the Iran war, signaling a shift towards strategic independence and pragmatism in their foreign policies despite U.S. pressure. European leaders cite past U.S. actions and domestic political factors for their reluctance, while Japan emphasizes constitutional constraints on military involvement, though both provide some U.S. operational support. The conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose severe economic threats to both regions, impacting energy security and global stability. This growing divergence in interests, coupled with waning U.S. soft power, prompts allies to hedge through diversified relationships, raising questions about the long-term cohesion of U.S. alliances.
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219.Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia’s strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones (Chatham House)
Russia pursues a calculated strategy in the Iran-Israel conflict, acting as spectator, beneficiary, and player while avoiding direct military entanglement. Moscow provides diplomatic support and likely drone assistance to Iran while maintaining deconfliction channels with Israel and the US, extracting advantage without assuming proportional risks. Disruptions in Gulf energy markets have tightened global crude supplies, improving Russia's fiscal position and demonstrating resilience under sanctions. This selective engagement approach reinforces Moscow's narrative of indispensability across multiple theaters and strengthens its negotiating position on Ukraine. Russia's Middle East gains directly feed into the diplomatic calculus, potentially shifting US focus from weakening Russia to managing it, which could increase pressure on Kyiv to accept compromise.
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220.
The article argues that the IMF's current analysis of global economic imbalances is outdated, incorrectly attributing too much blame to Europe and too little to China. It contends that China's surplus has significantly increased, largely at Europe's expense, which is evident when adjusting for data distortions like Ireland's tax practices and relying on customs data over potentially misreported balance of payments figures. The author concludes that the IMF must update its analytical framework to accurately reflect the true distribution of global surpluses and the impact of China's trade practices on European economies, urging a shift in its "worldview to trade reality."
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221.
Freedom House's "Freedom in the World 2026" report indicates a severe, 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline, marked by authoritarian regimes increasingly formalizing collaboration to undermine democratic institutions worldwide. The report notes significant deteriorations in political rights and civil liberties, even in countries like the United States, alongside a global erosion of media freedom and due process. This trend is compounded by major democracies turning inward, reducing support for global democracy promotion, and facing domestic challenges to their own democratic systems. Reversing this alarming trajectory, the author suggests, necessitates close cooperation among leading democracies, a prospect currently hindered by prevailing geopolitical dynamics and foreign policy priorities.
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222.
The Trump administration's 'Donroe Doctrine' seeks to displace Chinese economic influence from the Western Hemisphere through pressure and threats, but this approach alone will fail without providing attractive economic alternatives. China has grown its trade relationships with Latin America from nearly zero to $500 billion annually and now dominates infrastructure, financing, and consumer goods markets. To succeed, the US must leverage expanded financing from the Development Finance Corporation, Export-Import Bank, and multilateral development banks to make US companies competitive, while also promoting transparency, standards-setting, and strategic partnerships. The US should focus on sectors like AI, telecommunications, and infrastructure where private companies can profit while advancing national security interests. Without economic incentives and investment support, the Donroe Doctrine risks failing to counter Chinese influence in the region.
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223.
The conflict in the Middle East has intensified with targeted attacks on natural gas facilities in Iran and Qatar, causing significant disruption and threatening global energy markets. Israel initiated strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, leading to Iranian retaliation against a Qatari LNG facility and drone attacks on Kuwaiti and Saudi energy infrastructure, which sent oil prices fluctuating. The escalation has prompted the U.S. to attempt stabilization of oil markets and Gulf nations to issue stern warnings, suggesting prolonged geopolitical and economic implications.
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224.
The Iran War's disruption of oil and LNG supplies is forcing Asian economies dependent on Middle Eastern energy to fundamentally restructure their energy strategies. Across the region, governments are accelerating nuclear energy development (Japan, China, South Korea), re-embracing coal, and exploring renewable expansion, with South Korea even considering breaching its US nuclear agreement to pursue domestic uranium enrichment. While these shifts address long-term security needs, most Asian states face significant near-term economic pain, as alternative energy sources require time to deploy and the critical Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The crisis reveals Asia's structural energy vulnerabilities and underscores the geopolitical risks of energy insecurity, including potential tensions with security allies and proliferation concerns.
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225.
Sebastian Mallaby, a senior fellow at CFR, reflects on his career trajectory from international journalism to think tank work, shaped by his diplomatic family background and postings across the Soviet Union, Africa, and Asia. Drawing from his experience covering major events like the end of apartheid and Nelson Mandela's release, he emphasizes how curiosity about what makes countries prosperous and peaceful drives meaningful foreign policy work. Mallaby advises aspiring foreign policy professionals to consider diverse institutional platforms—including academia, multinational corporations, and think tanks—recognizing that traditional journalism faces technological disruption while institutions like CFR provide sustained support for deep policy analysis and intellectual leadership.
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226.
CFR President Michael Froman argues that the US failure to build robust allied support for securing the Strait of Hormuz reflects a deeper erosion in coalition-building capacity stemming from inadequate consultation and allied perceptions that military action serves primarily US interests. Despite the Strait's critical importance—handling 40% of China's crude oil and significant European energy flows—responses from major allies ranged from outright refusal to lukewarm commitments, while China strategically abstained despite substantial vulnerability to supply disruption. The episode suggests Trump administration policies on tariffs and territorial claims have depleted the diplomatic capital necessary for allies to support US-led military operations, with significant implications for future security commitments requiring broad international participation.
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227.
US commercial shipbuilding is nearly extinct, producing only ~1 ship annually and representing just 0.04% of global output, with domestic vessels costing five times more than South Korean alternatives due to labor shortages, outdated infrastructure, and weak supply chains. The Jones Act, intended to protect the industry by mandating domestic construction of vessels used in US waters, has paradoxically reduced competitiveness while raising water transportation costs and preventing LNG access to regions like New England and Alaska. Steel tariffs and restrictive immigration policies further compound these challenges. The case for Jones Act reform or repeal has never been stronger, despite uncertain political prospects.
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228.
The UK-Mauritius agreement to return the Chagos Archipelago grants Mauritius sovereignty while allowing the U.S. to maintain the critical Diego Garcia military base for 99 years (potentially renewable indefinitely) at no cost, securing strategic access to the Indian Ocean for operations in the Middle East and East Africa. Trump's opposition to the deal, citing national security concerns, appears rooted in geopolitical leverage disputes with UK leadership rather than genuine military vulnerabilities; experts argue the arrangement actually strengthens U.S. interests by providing legal clarity and perpetual access. Iran's March 2026 ballistic missile attack on Diego Garcia—the base's first direct targeting—demonstrates extended Iranian strike capability and validates the base's critical role in U.S. regional defense, though the agreement preserves full American operational control. The proposed framework represents a strategic win for all parties: Mauritius regains sovereignty, the UK resolves international legal liability, and the U.S. secures cost-free long-term access to a strategically vital facility.
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229.
Following the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, the Trump administration is pivoting to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 as its primary tariff mechanism. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 requires a formal administrative process with public comment periods and hearings, giving stakeholders an opportunity to shape the evidentiary record. USTR has initiated investigations affecting 60 economies—16 on 'structural excess capacity' policies and all 60 on forced labor import restrictions—with written comments due April 15, 2026. The eventual scope and defensibility of resulting tariffs will depend critically on how USTR defines key terms and frames its justifications. This procedural requirement creates both constraints on tariff scope and opportunities for businesses and workers to influence definitions that will affect supply chains, federal revenue, and trade policy for years to come.
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230.
The United States and Iran have reportedly engaged in indirect contact regarding potential negotiations, despite public denials from Tehran. This comes amid escalating military tensions, with increased U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East and hardening stances from Gulf states against Iran. The volatile situation underscores a precarious geopolitical landscape, with experts advising a strategy to manage rather than overthrow the Iranian regime.
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231.
The 70th UN Commission on the Status of Women focused on access to justice and eliminating discriminatory laws, with panelists highlighting that women globally possess only two-thirds the legal rights of men. Key barriers include widespread discriminatory legislation (affecting rape definitions, child marriage, and equal pay), fragmented justice systems inaccessible to women, and social biases that discourage reporting. The Commission adopted historic agreed conclusions for the first time requiring a vote after 70 years, establishing stronger commitments to legal aid, digital justice platforms, and survivor-centric approaches to conflict-related sexual violence, though the United States cast an unprecedented opposing vote. Speakers emphasized that implementing these agreements requires sustained political will, adequate funding for justice systems, and international accountability mechanisms to address gender-based violence and impunity.
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232.
The ongoing Iran war is causing severe disruptions in global energy markets, prompting governments and companies worldwide to implement emergency policies. Nations like the Philippines have declared energy emergencies, while Slovenia and Sri Lanka have introduced fuel rationing, and major corporations are facing substantial cost increases and supply chain issues. These widespread economic impacts, including falling stock markets and projected inflation, are driving international diplomatic efforts, such as proposals for summits and peace plans, to stabilize the volatile situation.
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233.
China's established investment-and-export-led economic growth model is encountering severe systemic pressures, marked by diminishing investment returns and a deflationary domestic market. To address these issues, China is implementing an "AI Plus" Initiative, aiming to integrate artificial intelligence across its economy for modernization by 2035. However, significant internal challenges like an aging population, low productivity growth, and high youth unemployment raise doubts about the sustainability of this model and AI's capacity to fulfill the state's ambitious economic and political objectives.
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234.
The ongoing Iran War is significantly impacting the global economy, with the World Trade Organization forecasting a 0.3 percent reduction in global GDP growth for 2026 if energy prices remain high. Regions like Europe and Gulf states, including Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are projected to face substantial economic contractions due to prolonged conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure, such as the recent Iranian strike on a Qatari gas facility. Policy responses include the US considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and approving significant arms sales to Middle Eastern allies. Diplomatic and strategic shifts are also evident in deals like Belarus's prisoner release tied to fertilizer exports and the UK's foreign aid cuts to boost military spending.
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235.
The analysis argues that the transatlantic relationship is strained by US unilateralism, challenging Europe's traditional posture of submission. Key evidence suggests that Europe's history of bending the knee to Washington has been detrimental, while recent acts of collective self-assertion—such as rejecting US pressure over Greenland or denying base access during the Iran crisis—have proven more effective. For policy, the findings imply that Europe must abandon reactive submission and instead prioritize internal cohesion, energy transition, and unified policy stances. This strategic shift is necessary for Europe to build genuine leverage and reduce its structural dependence on US protection.
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236.
The report argues that the U.S. Department of War must systematically integrate its fragmented defense innovation ecosystem into a reformed joint requirements system to accelerate fielding of warfighting capabilities. Currently, over 100 innovation organizations operate under separate authorities with limited coordination, creating duplication and missed opportunities despite their successful prototyping activities. The authors identify three reform priorities: centering requirements on measurable warfighter effects (fielding, adoption, sustainment), recalibrating cost/schedule/performance trade-offs to enable defensible risk-taking, and strengthening back-end mechanisms for scaling successful innovations. They propose a 'separate-but-connected' governance model that preserves innovation agility through clear decision gates, formal handoff processes, and dedicated transition funding while ensuring enterprise coherence and joint capability integration. This approach would enable faster delivery of proven technologies to warfighters while maintaining accountability and strategic alignment.
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237.Achieving Combat Sortie Generation Proficiency in the Air Force: An Examination of Goals, Gaps, Barriers, and Solutions (RAND)
RAND research identifies critical gaps in U.S. Air Force combat sortie generation proficiency—the ability to rapidly recover, refuel, rearm, and launch aircraft under combat conditions. Through expert interviews, literature review, and proficiency modeling, the authors find that current training practices vary inconsistently across units and fall far short of what Agile Combat Employment doctrine demands, particularly for rapid response to high-threat missile scenarios. Key barriers include lack of standardized training requirements, insufficient training frequency (units practicing hot integrated combat turns semi-annually when monthly or more is needed), resource constraints, personnel shortages, and organizational friction between operations and maintenance. The report recommends establishing formal CSG training requirements (similar to the Ready Aircrew Program), implementing standardized proficiency metrics, improving operational-maintenance coordination to resolve conflicts with flying hour programs, and addressing long-term personnel experience imbalances. Without systematic intervention, the Air Force will struggle to generate combat power at the speed and scale required for peer conflict.
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238.
China has strategically positioned Southeast Asia as a core focus of its geoeconomic expansion, utilizing initiatives like the Maritime Silk Road (BRI). Evidence of this deep integration includes the region attracting $126 billion in Chinese investment over the last decade, making it China's largest trading partner as of 2020. While this relationship drives significant regional growth, the intense economic dependency and strategic focus suggest that Southeast Asian nations are increasingly subject to Beijing's influence. Policy implications suggest that external powers must monitor the rising geopolitical pressure and potential for economic coercion stemming from this deep Chinese integration.
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239.
The U.S. Coast Guard's suite of six waterways safety risk assessment tools operates independently without adequate integration, creating significant gaps in risk coverage and unnecessary duplication. Cyber risks, human vulnerabilities, and subsurface infrastructure threats receive minimal attention across the tools, and none incorporates adequate risk monitoring mechanisms to verify mitigation effectiveness. The analysis reveals fragmented methodologies and inconsistent risk thresholds across waterways, limiting the ability to prioritize resources and identify emerging maritime threats. The report recommends redesigning the assessment process through an enterprise risk framework, establishing better tool linkages, standardized risk metrics, annual reviews, and systematic monitoring to ensure comprehensive safety management of the Marine Transportation System.
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240.Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative (RAND)
Pima County's Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative is a permanent supportive housing program targeting justice-involved adults experiencing homelessness and behavioral health challenges. The evaluation found that among 86 program participants with complete data, criminal justice involvement fell 35% after enrollment, total criminal justice events declined 58%, and average costs per participant decreased 46% ($10,450 to $5,657). However, substantial implementation challenges limit the program's reach: only 43 of 126 participants enrolled during the evaluation period were placed in permanent supportive housing due to limited affordable housing and voucher freezes that extended wait times from 5 to 9 months. The findings suggest permanent supportive housing shows promise for breaking cycles of incarceration and homelessness, but policymakers must address systemic barriers through improved data integration, stronger evaluation methods, and expanded housing resources to maximize impact and reach the significant unmet demand.
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241.
The U.S. and China are currently navigating a period of strategic calm following years of elevated tensions. This détente is evidenced by a recent truce agreement between President Trump and Xi Jinping, which temporarily paused the trade war and lifted restrictions on critical resources like rare-earth elements. While this pause represents a significant de-escalation, the article cautions that the stability is fragile. Therefore, the outcome of future high-level meetings will be crucial for determining if this strategic calm can be maintained or if tensions will resurface.
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242.
F. Gregory Gause III argues that Saudi Crown Prince MBS has shifted from an aggressive, interventionist foreign policy to one emphasizing regional stability after Iran's 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities and the lack of U.S. response. Saudi Arabia now prioritizes economic modernization (Vision 2030), opposes U.S. military action against Iran for fear of retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure, and has raised the cost of Israeli normalization by demanding a pathway to Palestinian statehood. The analysis highlights a growing Saudi-Emirati divergence over whether to back central governments or non-state actors, while Riyadh continues to view Washington—not Beijing—as its primary security and technology partner, particularly in AI and defense.
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243.
This CSIS report argues that the U.S. must prioritize its mineral supply relationship with South Africa despite recent diplomatic friction to avoid losing strategic access to China and Russia. South Africa remains the dominant supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, and military-grade vanadium, which are indispensable for U.S. defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization. To counter the migration of processing capacity to China, the report recommends U.S. investment in South African energy infrastructure through LNG-to-power agreements and renewed nuclear cooperation. Establishing price floors for defense materials and pairing financing with long-term offtake agreements are seen as essential steps to securing these critical supply chains.
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244.
The United States must significantly increase and sustain national investment in quantum information science and technology (QIST) to maintain its competitive edge against global rivals like China. The report identifies critical gaps in aging federal research facilities at NIST and the Department of Defense, alongside a lack of shared-use infrastructure like testbeds and foundries necessary for commercial prototyping. Strategic recommendations include establishing a long-term funding framework for tech infrastructure, creating an interconnected national network of regional quantum ecosystems, and providing stable government demand signals to encourage private sector R&D.
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245.
The landslide victory of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in Nepal marks a significant breakthrough for Gen Z-led political movements in Asia, diverging from recent electoral failures of youth-led protests in neighboring countries. Led by 35-year-old Balendra Shah, the party successfully leveraged Nepal’s young demographic—where 56% of the population is under 30—to secure a rare parliamentary majority on a platform of technocratic reform and anti-corruption. This electoral mandate offers a historic opportunity for political stability in a nation that has cycled through 27 prime ministers since 1990, potentially enabling the structural reforms required to address systemic economic stagnation and talent flight.
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246.
A CFR expert panel analyzes the geoeconomic fallout from the Iran war, which has produced what the IEA calls the largest oil supply disruption in history, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a trickle and crude prices surging past $100/barrel. Panelists argue the Trump administration underestimated Iran's willingness to escalate by closing the strait after its leadership was targeted, and that neither strategic petroleum reserve releases nor eased Russia sanctions have meaningfully stabilized markets, with potential GDP contractions of up to 14% in Qatar/Kuwait and recessionary risks for the U.S. if the crisis persists. The disruption is reshaping Gulf security dynamics—driving GCC states toward defense diversification away from sole U.S. reliance—while delivering a financial windfall to Russia, validating China's energy stockpiling strategy, and threatening Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE hub ambitions, with no assured resolution short of Iran agreeing to a ceasefire.
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247.
This CFR podcast examines how the war in Ukraine is sustained by competing alliance networks: NATO and European allies backing Ukraine, while Russia draws critical support from China (economic and technological), Iran (drones), and North Korea (troops and munitions). The analysis highlights that neither coalition is a traditional bloc alliance—China carefully avoids direct weapons transfers to protect its economy and reputation, while the U.S. under Trump has shifted from alliance leader to self-styled neutral mediator with a pro-Russia lean, forcing Europeans to dramatically increase their own defense commitments. The episode argues that the global order is moving toward more transactional, fragile partnerships rather than values-based alliances, creating a less stable and more unpredictable security environment than even the Cold War's rigid bipolarity.
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248.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) prioritizes clean energy expansion and economic resilience over specific emission reduction targets, signaling a strategic pivot toward technological supremacy. The blueprint emphasizes dominating global green tech production to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly those exposed by the Iran war and other geopolitical instabilities. Consequently, China is increasingly integrating its climate ambitions with broader foreign policy goals, leveraging its lead in clean technology to reshape international energy markets and challenge Western industrial competitiveness.
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249.
Following the Supreme Court's rejection of IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. is pivoting to Section 122 and 301 authorities to maintain a high-tariff regime that is increasingly used for non-trade geopolitical leverage. Experts suggest that while the administration has secured several asymmetric bilateral deals, this unilateralist approach risks fragmenting global trade and isolating the U.S. from the allies needed to counter China's systemic industrial overcapacity. The panel highlights that China's growing trade surplus and manufacturing dominance remain unresolved by current protectionist measures or the existing WTO framework. Consequently, U.S. strategy may be drifting toward a 'Fortress America' posture that increases domestic costs while ceding influence over future global trade rules and market opportunities.
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250.
Bob Rae asserts that Canada is undergoing a profound strategic pivot, moving away from traditional reliance on the United States in response to a 'rupture' in the rules-based international order. This shift is evidenced by Canada’s commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and the launch of its first-ever Defence Industrial Strategy to protect manufacturing and scientific capacity. The primary implication is that Canada will increasingly prioritize multilateral partnerships with Europe and the Asia-Pacific to safeguard its sovereignty, particularly regarding Arctic security and Ukraine, amidst growing US isolationism and volatility.
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251.
Fifteen years after the Fukushima disaster, Japan is reintegrating nuclear power into its energy mix to bolster energy security and meet decarbonization targets. The shift, codified in the 2025 Strategic Energy Plan, aims to reduce the country’s precarious over-reliance on imported natural gas, which exposed Japan to significant geopolitical risks following conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. While supported by extensive safety reforms and the strategic need to compete with China’s nuclear expansion, the policy must still navigate persistent public skepticism. Success will require a flexible approach that balances nuclear restarts with diversified energy sourcing to ensure long-term stability.
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252.
This CSIS report warns that while the U.S. possesses sufficient aggregate energy, regional infrastructure constraints in key industrial hubs could jeopardize the defense industrial base's ability to mobilize for a high-intensity conflict. The analysis highlights that critical production for materials like titanium, aluminum, and semiconductors is geographically concentrated in regions such as PJM and ERCOT, which face eroding reserve margins, surging data center demand, and natural gas deliverability risks. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, the authors recommend extending "Defense Critical Electric Infrastructure" designations to private industrial nodes and utilizing the Defense Production Act to expedite permitting and financing for energy assurance projects. Integrating energy resilience into defense supply chain risk assessments is essential to ensure that localized grid or pipeline failures do not paralyze wartime production schedules.
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253.
This CFR roundtable examines the global energy crisis triggered by Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens to remove roughly 20 million barrels per day—about 20% of global petroleum consumption—dwarfing the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo's 7% disruption. Despite the largest-ever coordinated IEA reserve release of 400 million barrels, aging SPR infrastructure limits actual throughput to a fraction of the shortfall, and alternative pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only partially compensate. The discussion highlights that oil prices remain lower than expected only because markets anticipate a quick resolution, while Russia and Iran are paradoxically profiting from the crisis, and China's long-term electrification strategy is being validated as a model of energy security planning.
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254.
This CSIS newsletter highlights significant policy shifts across Indian states, emphasizing expanded social safety nets and targeted industrial growth. Key developments include Kerala’s implementation of Universal Health Coverage, Tamil Nadu’s new policy for the animation and gaming sectors, and Maharashtra’s establishment of an MSME Commissionerate. These legislative actions reflect a broader trend of state-level autonomy in driving economic modernization, improving public health access, and regulating social issues like inter-caste marriage and religious conversion. Collectively, these initiatives suggest that subnational governance remains the primary engine for implementing structural reforms and addressing infrastructure demands in India.
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255.
This CFR podcast examines President Nixon's historic 1972 visit to China, arguing it was a strategically consequential move that exploited the Sino-Soviet split to give the United States leverage over Moscow, reduced Chinese support for North Vietnam, and began a fundamental shift in American attitudes toward China from ideological adversary to potential partner. Historian Jeremi Suri highlights that the opening was possible because both sides had converging interests—Nixon sought to outmaneuver the Soviet Union while Mao faced border tensions with Moscow and domestic instability from the Cultural Revolution—and was executed through extraordinary White House secrecy bypassing the State Department. The episode draws lessons for today: the U.S. benefits from engaging adversaries diplomatically rather than relying on non-recognition, but the costs of excluding career diplomats and allied governments from the process—as seen in Japan's shock at the announcement—underscore that dramatic personal diplomacy without institutional follow-through can delay substantive outcomes and damage alliances.
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256.
President Trump is calling for an international coalition, including NATO allies and Asian partners, to militarily secure the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict with Iran enters its third week. The push follows unsuccessful U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island and subsequent Iranian retaliatory attacks on Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, which have collectively sparked a global energy crisis. By linking ally participation to the future of NATO, the administration is signaling a high-stakes strategy to internationalize the military burden while allies remain cautious about further escalation.
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257.
USMCA has significantly deepened North American economic integration, with compliance rates for Mexican and Canadian exports rising to nearly 80% following 2025 tariff increases on non-agreement goods. Mexico has solidified its role as the top U.S. trading partner, transitioning toward high-value advanced technology sectors like AI servers and medical devices while de-risking from China. However, rising labor costs and policy uncertainty have constrained new investment and employment in traditional manufacturing. The report suggests the 2026 USMCA review must prioritize realistic regional content requirements and infrastructure improvements to sustain the current nearshoring momentum.
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258.The Iran war should boost security cooperation by US Pacific allies like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea (Chatham House)
The war between the US and Iran is prompting Indo-Pacific allies—Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines—to pursue deeper trilateral security cooperation to compensate for the sudden withdrawal of American military assets from the region. Recent redeployments of missile defense systems and Marines to the Middle East have highlighted the risks of over-reliance on US commitments, particularly as regional threats from China and North Korea persist. To mitigate this uncertainty, the article advocates for a formal trilateral arrangement to enhance military interoperability, intelligence sharing, and regional stability independent of shifting US defense priorities.
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259.
An IISS crisis simulation found that Southeast Asian nations lack the 'strategic bandwidth' and specialized literacy required to manage a major nuclear-security escalation involving great powers. Centered on a 2031 scenario of a missing nuclear submarine, the exercise highlighted that regional states rely on the SEANWFZ Treaty as a baseline but struggle to bridge the divide between China and the AUKUS partnership. Consequently, the report recommends that ASEAN enhance domestic inter-agency coordination and utilize the ADMM-Plus framework to more effectively address nuclear-related regional security threats.
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260.
A RAND study, based on expert consensus, outlines an 'ideal' integrated policy framework for early cancer care. Developed through a three-phase Expert Consensus Panel and Validation Workshops involving global cancer policy experts, the framework identifies key components such as Public Education, Primary Care Capacity, and Data Infrastructure as highly important. The research emphasizes that advancing early cancer care requires a unified, system-wide approach built on collaboration, equity, and sustained investment, moving beyond isolated interventions. Policymakers should integrate education, detection, diagnosis, treatment, and system strengthening, adapting to national and local contexts for long-term sustainability and equitable patient outcomes.
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261.
The article argues that a robust security alliance between Poland and Germany is essential for European defense amidst rising Russian aggression and declining US reliability. This partnership is currently stifled by historical grievances, Polish domestic political infighting, and German strategic reluctance regarding defense investment and historical atonement. To overcome these barriers, the two nations are pursuing 'military diplomacy' through a bilateral defense agreement and multilateral security formats to modernize infrastructure and resupply national arsenals. Failure to solidify this axis risks leaving Europe vulnerable if Polish leadership continues to prioritize a potentially unreliable US partnership over regional integration.
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262.
Israel's targeted killing of top Iranian security and military officials Ali Larijani and Gholam Reza Soleimani marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, potentially destabilizing Iran's command structure. This military action occurs as the United States faces increasing isolation from NATO allies, who have rejected calls to join a naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid direct involvement in the war. Consequently, while Israel and the U.S. have successfully degraded certain Iranian capabilities, the strategy’s success hinges on whether these leadership losses will trigger a popular uprising or simply lead to a bureaucratic reorganization within a resilient Iranian cadre.
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263.
National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned in protest against the war in Iran, asserting that the conflict lacks an imminent threat justification and fails to serve American interests. This internal rupture coincides with escalating Israeli military operations against Iranian leadership and growing friction between the U.S. and NATO allies over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict is triggering global repercussions, including an energy crisis that has forced nations like Sri Lanka to implement austerity measures. These developments suggest a deepening isolation of U.S. foreign policy and a heightening risk of a broader, uncoordinated regional war with significant economic fallout.
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264.
The article argues that the convergence of low-cost drone technology and precision guidance has ushered in an era of 'precise mass' warfare, first demonstrated in Ukraine and now fully manifest in the U.S.-Iran conflict surrounding Operation Epic Fury. The authors highlight a critical cost-exchange imbalance: defending against $20,000-$50,000 Shahed-136 drones requires interceptors costing $125,000 to $4 million each, rapidly depleting limited air defense stockpiles across the Gulf states and potentially drawing down Indo-Pacific reserves needed to deter China. The implications are stark—the U.S. must dramatically increase investment in attritable, scalable systems like LUCAS beyond the current 0.5% of defense spending, as precise mass capabilities are becoming a permanent feature of modern warfare that empowers both great powers and lesser states alike.
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265.
The article argues that despite the United States' shift toward aggressive protectionism and abandonment of multilateral leadership, the remaining 165 WTO members can and should continue global trade liberalization independently. By adopting a WTO-based plurilateral approach and moving away from strict consensus decision-making, these nations can address 21st-century challenges like digital trade while bypassing American commercial recalcitrance. Evidence suggests that global supply chains are already reconfiguring through 'trade deflection' and new non-US agreements, proving that international trade can persist without the U.S. at its center. Ultimately, collective action within the WTO framework is necessary to prevent global economic fragmentation and to maintain the rule-based system until the U.S. returns to a cooperative role.
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266.
A U.S. military investigation reveals that outdated targeting data led to a Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, resulting in at least 175 civilian deaths at the onset of the war. This tragedy highlights the impact of a 90 percent reduction in specialized Pentagon teams dedicated to minimizing civilian casualties during military operations. The mounting human toll and associated global energy disruptions are shifting the conflict toward a prolonged struggle of political endurance, while complicating U.S. diplomatic relations with key allies like Spain.
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267.
Brookings has launched an interactive trade tracker to monitor significant shifts in U.S. trade flows and costs following a sharp increase in tariffs beginning in January 2025. The tool reveals how businesses proactively react to trade policy, evidenced by a massive surge in metal imports ahead of Section 232 implementation and heightened price volatility among major trading partners. These findings underscore the profound economic impact of aggressive trade enforcement and subsequent legal challenges, such as the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain emergency tariff actions.
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268.
This CSIS report argues that the U.S. government must transition from a mere R&D funder to a strategic 'demand creator' to help the quantum industry bridge the 'valley of death' between research and commercial deployment. The authors highlight that high technical uncertainty and long development timelines have left private investment insufficient, particularly when compared to the massive capital flows into AI. To overcome this, the report recommends institutionalizing guaranteed purchase commitments—modeled after Operation Warp Speed—and utilizing flexible contracting mechanisms to provide the market certainty needed to scale quantum computing, sensing, and networking infrastructure.
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269.
This Brookings-RAND joint initiative examines whether current U.S. policy toward Taiwan and cross-strait relations remains adequate amid a deteriorating security environment in the Taiwan Strait. Through a series of expert workshops, the project explores five distinct policy pathways: limiting U.S. commitments while boosting Taiwan's self-defense, calibrating diplomacy to stabilize cross-strait dynamics, pursuing a more active denial strategy, and shifting toward strategic clarity. The analysis weighs how each option would affect U.S. deterrence posture, Taiwan's domestic politics, Beijing's strategic calculus, and broader Indo-Pacific security. The initiative signals growing mainstream debate within the U.S. policy community about whether the longstanding framework of strategic ambiguity should be revised or replaced, with significant implications for alliance management and escalation risk in the region.
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270.
The USMCA serves as a vital strategic anchor for North American economic integration and regional security as it approaches its first mandated joint review in 2026. Mexico highlights its role as the primary U.S. trading partner and its implementation of domestic reforms, such as "Plan México" and labor improvements, to demonstrate a commitment to increasing regional value-added and purchasing power. The upcoming review provides a critical opportunity to strengthen supply chain resilience and shared prosperity by aligning the agreement with evolving industrial policies and geopolitical realities. Policy success will depend on maintaining a diplomatic balance that addresses security and migration while respecting national sovereignty across the three member nations.
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271.
This analysis evaluates the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, contending that significant military successes in degrading nuclear and missile capabilities have not yet triggered the regime's collapse. Key indicators, such as the stable succession of Mojtaba Khamenei and the lack of military defections, suggest that the theocracy is consolidating into a 'rump state' capable of sustained regional disruption against Gulf energy infrastructure. The authors warn that an exit strategy focused solely on conventional degradation may leave a bloodied regime with even greater incentives to pursue nuclear weapons as an ultimate deterrent, potentially turning tactical victories into a long-term strategic liability.
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272.
Iran’s new leadership has committed to continuing the conflict, emphasizing ongoing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and further retaliation against U.S.-Israeli strikes. This defiant stance is met with a similar pledge from Washington to advance military operations, indicating that both sides are preparing for an escalation rather than a diplomatic resolution. The ongoing hostilities have already caused significant global energy shocks, forcing the U.S. to adjust sanctions on other oil producers like Russia to stabilize markets. For regional strategy, these developments suggest a protracted war with high risks of expanded conflict and long-term economic disruption.
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273.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that a more flexible and differentiated model of European integration is essential for the continent to remain resilient and competitive amid rising geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes the need for pragmatic mechanisms that allow member states to respond rapidly to challenges in defense, energy, and technology without losing their shared sense of purpose. Ultimately, this approach is presented as a way to strengthen the European Union's collective ability to protect its interests and values in an era of shifting global alliances.
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274.How the Russian Orthodox Church is recruiting for the Ukraine war – and alienating believers (Chatham House)
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has transitioned into a key recruitment and ideological tool for the Russian state, framing the invasion of Ukraine as a 'holy mission' to justify the conflict. The church utilizes military chaplains as front-line enforcers to prevent desertion while weaponizing 'traditional values' narratives to influence Western conservatives and undermine military aid to Ukraine. This aggressive alignment with the Kremlin is alienating domestic believers and leading to a decline in religious participation within Russia. Consequently, policymakers must recognize the ROC's role as a sophisticated soft-power instrument designed to exploit cultural divisions in the West.
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275.
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a significant maritime confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supplies and necessitating a potential release of strategic energy reserves. Evidence of this expansion includes the U.S. destruction of Iranian mine-laying vessels and reports of attacks on commercial shipping, alongside a staggering initial war cost of $5.6 billion for Washington within the first two days. Consequently, the war is forcing a strategic pivot of U.S. missile defense assets from East Asia to the Middle East, while highlighting vulnerabilities in global interceptor supplies for other theaters like Ukraine.
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276.
The U.S. Congress has reauthorized the SBIR and STTR programs through 2031 via the Small Business Innovation and Economic Security Act, ending a six-month funding lapse that threatened the startup ecosystem. The legislation introduces structural reforms, such as 'strategic breakthrough awards' of up to $30 million, specifically designed to help small businesses bridge the 'valley of death' between prototype development and commercial deployment. These updates also mandate stricter due diligence regarding foreign ownership and improved data collection to ensure federal R&D investments effectively bolster the U.S. industrial base and national security. Ultimately, the reauthorization seeks to convert domestic technological innovation into long-term strategic advantages amidst rising global competition.
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277.
Europe faces a critical challenge from a second wave of nationalist populism that seeks to hollow out EU integration from within rather than pursuing an exit strategy. Supported by geopolitical shifts in Russia and the US, these far-right movements have normalized their agendas—particularly regarding migration and climate—within mainstream parties and are increasingly influencing EU-level legislation through deregulatory 'omnibus' packages. The upcoming 2026 elections, starting with Hungary, will determine if Europe can maintain the unity necessary to resist becoming 'easy prey' for foreign spheres of influence or if it will fracture into weakened, competing nationalist states.
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278.
Prime Minister Takaichi’s visit to Washington serves as a critical test of the U.S.-Japan alliance as the Iran War forces a shift from strategic alignment to transactional demands for Middle East military support. While President Trump pressures Japan for naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz, Takaichi is constrained by constitutional limits and is instead leveraging economic concessions, including $550 billion in U.S. investment commitments, to maintain the partnership. The outcome will determine if Japan can preserve its vital U.S. security guarantee against China while navigating the legal and political risks of entanglement in a regional conflict.
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279.
The article argues that traditional cartographic conventions, which emphasize clean borders and jigsaw-puzzle shapes, fail to represent the complex realities of modern geopolitics and overlapping sovereignty. By examining cases like Greenland’s strategic connectivity and the South China Sea's ambiguous claims, the author illustrates how simplified maps can reinforce outdated mental models and obscure critical strategic data. For policymakers, embracing 'messier' maps that visualize strategic ambiguities and feathered edges of maritime rights is crucial for an accurate assessment of national security interests. This shift allows for a more nuanced understanding of frozen conflicts and the multi-layered nature of international relations.
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280.
The United States must leverage international partnerships and multilateral frameworks to break China’s dominant 'chokehold' on critical mineral supply chains essential for defense and high-tech industries. While previous unilateral approaches hindered progress, emerging 2026 initiatives like 'Project Vault' and the 'Forge' forum signal a strategic shift toward a collaborative 'Metals NATO' model. To successfully compete with China’s predatory pricing, U.S. policy must prioritize early-stage project funding and high environmental and labor standards to attract producing nations. These coordinated efforts are vital for securing the resilient supply chains required for national security and the global energy transition.
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281.
Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have entered a state of 'open war' following lethal cross-border airstrikes triggered by Islamabad’s claims that Kabul is harboring Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. The escalation has resulted in significant civilian casualties and the failure of mediation efforts by regional actors like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, marking the most severe breakdown in relations since 2021. The conflict threatens to destabilize China’s regional infrastructure projects and could provide operational space for extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. Consequently, the breakdown in bilateral ties may force regional powers, including India and Russia, to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies toward the Taliban regime.
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282.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to Washington seeks to reinforce the U.S.-Japan alliance through $550 billion in strategic investment pledges and record-breaking defense spending. However, the partnership is being strained by new U.S. tariff offensives and the redirection of American military assets from the Indo-Pacific to address escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Tokyo faces a difficult balancing act as it navigates U.S. demands for maritime assistance in the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to maintain credible deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Ultimately, the visit highlights a growing tension where Washington-driven economic and security shocks are complicating Japan's pursuit of strategic autonomy and regional stability.
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283.
Charles Kupchan argues that the Trump administration should pursue a strategy of neutralizing Iran's regime rather than attempting to topple it, advocating for an 'Islamic Republic 2.0' with moderate leadership and strict constraints on its nuclear, missile, and proxy capabilities. He draws on the disastrous outcomes of U.S.-led regime change in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria to warn that dismantling the Islamic Republic would likely produce state fracture, civil war, and regional instability rather than democracy. The article notes that Iran's deeply embedded security apparatus—over one million troops plus paramilitary forces—makes regime collapse unlikely through airpower alone, while arming ethnic minorities risks igniting a multi-country civil war. Kupchan recommends focusing military strikes on degrading Iran's military capability while maintaining diplomatic channels to pragmatic Iranian elites, arguing that a defanged regime, even if imperfect, is far preferable to the chaos of state collapse.
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284.The Iran war is exacting a heavy toll on Gulf oil and gas exporters – and creating risk and opportunity in North Africa (Chatham House)
The US-Israeli conflict with Iran is severely disrupting Gulf energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major producers to rely on insufficient and vulnerable alternative pipeline routes. This disruption is straining national budgets, especially in oil-dependent Iraq, and threatening the long-term market share of Gulf LNG as Asian buyers seek more reliable suppliers. In North Africa, the crisis presents a dual reality where energy importers like Egypt face significant inflationary pressures, while exporters like Algeria benefit from higher prices. These developments underscore the strategic fragility of the Gulf's economic model and may accelerate a permanent global shift in energy trade patterns and infrastructure.
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285.AI wars: Anthropic battles the Pentagon as China plans ahead. Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
This Chatham House podcast discusses the deepening rift between the Pentagon and AI provider Anthropic over the company's ethical restrictions on lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The dispute, which led to the firm being labeled a 'supply chain risk,' reveals a significant gap in global AI governance and the lack of established rules for AI in modern warfare. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its 'AI Plus' initiative to integrate artificial intelligence across its entire economic and military infrastructure. These developments highlight a critical need for policy frameworks that balance national security requirements with technological ethics and international competition.
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286.
A new Brookings/Hamilton Project paper by Adam Solomon examines how foreign governments use public reinsurance to address natural catastrophe insurance market failures, drawing lessons for a proposed U.S. federal reinsurance entity. Analyzing programs in Australia, the U.K., France, Spain, Japan, and elsewhere, Solomon finds that the most durable systems combine risk-based pricing, mandatory broad participation to prevent adverse selection, defined hazard coverage, and credible funding backstops such as industry levies and government guarantees. The paper concludes that well-designed public reinsurance can stabilize strained insurance markets by concentrating government capital on correlated tail risks while preserving private-sector underwriting and mitigation incentives—offering a viable policy path as U.S. property insurance becomes increasingly unaffordable or unavailable due to extreme weather.
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287.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have led to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting Gulf oil production by 10 million barrels per day and reducing strait transit to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels, causing acute energy shortages across Asia. Asian governments are resorting to fuel rationing, shortened workweeks, and costly subsidies to manage the crisis, but most countries could exhaust oil reserves within a month, while factories shutter and tourism plummets. The unsustainable fiscal burden of subsidies—already pushing Indonesia past its legal deficit cap—combined with historical precedents of fuel-price-driven unrest across South and Southeast Asia, raises the risk of severe economic contraction and political instability if the conflict persists through the summer.
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288.
Max Boot argues that Operation Epic Fury suffers from a critical "strategy gap," where tactical military successes—such as precision strikes on Iranian leadership—fail to achieve clear political objectives or a viable exit strategy. While the U.S. has degraded Iranian infrastructure, Tehran has successfully retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz and depleting American munitions stocks at an unsustainable rate. This rapid consumption of high-tech interceptors like Patriot missiles creates significant strategic vulnerabilities in other theaters, particularly regarding China and North Korea. Ultimately, the conflict underscores the limits of U.S. military power in translating tactical dominance into long-term political or economic stability.
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289.
The article argues that the Iran conflict's disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping poses a severe threat not only to energy markets but to global food security and water supply. Gulf states are nearly entirely import-dependent for staple grains, and the region accounts for roughly one-quarter of global fertilizer production transiting the strait—meaning price spikes and supply shortages will cascade worldwide, particularly in vulnerable nations already facing hunger crises. Iranian strikes on desalination infrastructure further endanger water access for over 100 million people in the Gulf. Drawing parallels to the Ukraine war's lasting fertilizer market disruption, which pushed 27 million more people into poverty, the author warns that the systematic weaponization of food, water, and fertilizer could convert a regional military conflict into a global humanitarian catastrophe, especially as rising defense spending crowds out development aid.
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290.
The article reviews four new publications that analyze the intellectual and historical drivers of contemporary global shifts, ranging from climate diplomacy to the rise of American anti-liberalism. These works examine the personal dynamics of UN climate negotiations, the haphazard legacy of Asian partitions, the ideologues behind the MAGA movement, and the impact of academic narratives on China policy. The central argument is that individual agency and ideological frameworks are critical, often overlooked factors in shaping international relations and domestic political trends. Consequently, policymakers must look beyond immediate crises to understand these deeper ideological roots to effectively navigate geopolitical rivalries and strengthen multilateral cooperation.
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291.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Washington underscores the strain on the Japan-US alliance as Japan’s oil-dependent economy suffers from US-led Middle East conflicts while facing pressure to increase defense spending. Despite significant commitments to Trump’s missile defense plans and tariff agreements, Japan remains wary of the US's long-term reliability in countering China’s regional assertiveness. Consequently, Tokyo is shifting its strategy toward greater self-reliance and the cultivation of diverse security and economic partnerships, such as with Australia and the CPTPP, to uphold a rules-based international order.
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292.
The article analyzes two competing geopolitical visions regarding the changing global order. One perspective, exemplified by Canada's Mark Carney, suggests middle powers should pivot away from U.S. reliance and view China as a potential counterweight to American power. Conversely, Japan's Sanae Takaichi argues that China, rather than the United States, represents the most significant disruptive threat globally. Policymakers must navigate this fundamental disagreement over the source of instability, determining whether the primary strategic focus should be mitigating Chinese influence or managing the shifting relationship between the U.S. and its allies.
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293.
Iran has developed a sophisticated arsenal of mine and missile capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which could be used as leverage to disrupt global oil flow and create a dangerous strategic choke point. The combination of these threats and the U.S. Navy's limited, untested mine clearance capacity makes military intervention highly risky and suboptimal. Therefore, the analysis argues that the U.S. should avoid costly escalation or attempts to clear the mines during a conflict. Instead, strategic focus must shift toward diplomatic efforts to find an 'off-ramp' from the larger war to prevent further destabilization of global energy markets.
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294.
The analysis concludes that even if the Iranian regime survives the current conflict greatly weakened, it will remain a significant and dangerous regional threat. This persistence is due to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which holds the true coercive power, ensuring that the regime will prioritize maintaining the status quo over radical change. The leadership succession, whether through Mojtaba Khamenei or a successor, will be driven by vengeance and resistance, guaranteeing continued instability and potential for terrorism. Strategically, this suggests that external military intervention is unlikely to achieve a swift regime collapse, necessitating a long-term strategy focused on managing persistent regional volatility.
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295.
Global military AI adoption is rapidly outstripping international efforts to establish governance, as evidenced by a significant decline in endorsements at the recent REAIM summit. With the United States and China increasingly detached from multilateral dialogues, middle powers now face the critical choice of leading the development of 'rules of the road' or allowing the technology to evolve without international guardrails. The divergence between diplomatic negotiations and the real-world deployment of AI in ongoing conflicts risks making future policy efforts irrelevant to technical and battlefield realities.
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296.
This CFR report outlines the catastrophic collapse of U.S.-Iran relations, culminating in a massive joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign in February 2026. Following failed nuclear talks and the failure of 'maximum pressure' sanctions, the conflict escalated to direct strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted Iran's nuclear and naval assets. These events have triggered immediate regional retaliation, including Iranian strikes on U.S. Gulf bases and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, presenting a severe threat to global energy stability and risking a broader regional war.
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297.
This article advocates for a robust U.S. strategy to support Iranian protesters, arguing that the current unrest presents a unique opportunity to topple the Islamic Republic and strike a blow against Chinese influence. The author contends that the regime's military weakness, exposed by recent U.S. strikes, and its economic failure have emboldened the populace despite Chinese-designed internet suppression tools. To assist the uprising, the piece suggests utilizing kinetic and cyberattacks against Iran's National Information Network to restore protester communications. Successfully weakening Tehran would undermine Beijing’s regional energy access and strategic foothold in the Middle East.
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298.
The research paper identifies a significant gap in systematic planning within maritime Southeast Asian capitals concerning a potential US-China conflict over Taiwan, noting that current discussions are largely limited to evacuation contingencies. Given ASEAN’s structural collective-action issues, the author advocates for a 'building blocks' approach that strengthens domestic crisis capacity and leverages bilateral relations with the US, China, and Taiwan for preliminary planning. This strategy emphasizes enhancing existing mechanisms and developing minilateral arrangements to ensure a functional regional response architecture during major security crises.
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299.
European leaders have responded in a fragmented manner to the uncoordinated U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, revealing deep internal divisions regarding the use of force and international law. While countries like Poland and Germany offer political or conditional support, France and Southern European nations have voiced legal criticisms, highlighting a lack of unified strategic weight. The conflict underscores Europe's continued dependence on the United States even as it pursues greater autonomy through increased defense spending and independent financial support for Ukraine. Ultimately, the war in the Middle East threatens to distract Washington from the European theater and disrupt energy markets, further straining the transatlantic relationship.
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300.
The Mitchell Institute report warns that the U.S. Air Force airlift system currently lacks the capacity and specific aircraft mix required to sustain combat operations against a peer competitor in highly contested environments. The analysis highlights that decades of underfunding and the geographical expanse of the Indo-Pacific have severely degraded the nation's mobility enterprise, posing a significant risk to global military operations. Consequently, the author advocates for immediate, multi-year investments to expand fleet capacity and restore the strategic mobility backbone essential for national defense.
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301.
Brookings experts argue that the U.S.-Israeli decapitation strike against Iran’s leadership is unlikely to trigger an immediate regime collapse, risking instead a protracted conflict and regional instability. The analysis highlights the resilience of the Islamic Republic's institutional networks and its escalatory survival strategy, which targets neighboring energy infrastructure to force diplomatic concessions. Policymakers are warned that without a coherent 'day after' plan or the integration of civilian statecraft, the intervention could lead to a 'lose-lose' scenario of state fragmentation and emboldened global adversaries.
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302.
This analysis posits that while AI is a transformative "A+" technology, firms like OpenAI face an "F-" business model with a high risk of a financing cliff due to astronomical capital requirements and projected losses of $660 billion by 2030. Market fragility is evidenced by the "SaaS-pocalypse" and the potential for a "jobless expansion" as firms freeze hiring while awaiting productivity gains that have yet to appear in macroeconomic data. Consequently, the authors suggest resolving the "AI trilemma" by implementing a safety tax to fund independent research and empowering a national safety institute with veto authority over high-risk models to prevent societal and geopolitical disruption.
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303.
The "AI sovereignty paradox" is defined by the tension between the U.S. government’s demand for unfettered military access to AI and the ethical safeguards maintained by private developers. This conflict, highlighted by the Pentagon’s recent standoff with Anthropic, illustrates the lack of a clear domestic regulatory framework for dual-use technologies. Internationally, middle powers are seeking digital sovereignty through localized regulations and infrastructure to reduce dependency on the dominant U.S.-Chinese "AI stack." Consequently, policymakers face the dual challenge of reconciling national security requirements with private sector safety standards while navigating a fragmented global regulatory landscape.
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304.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran and the subsequent death of Supreme Leader Khamenei have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a volatile maritime flashpoint, severely threatening global energy markets. In response to Iranian retaliation and threats of a blockade, vessel traffic through the waterway has dropped by 70%, causing Brent crude and natural gas prices to surge. While U.S. military operations have significantly degraded Iran's formal naval capacity, the continued use of asymmetric tactics like drone strikes and mine-laying forces expensive shipping diversions. This escalation highlights the fragility of regional maritime security and the immediate risk of a broader conflict disrupting essential global trade routes.
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305.
The Brookings Institution has launched a comprehensive tracker to monitor the significant expansion of U.S. tariffs implemented since January 2025, targeting major trading partners including Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU. These measures include broad sectoral tariffs on commodities like steel and aluminum, alongside country-specific adjustments tied to USMCA compliance and ongoing trade negotiations. By documenting trade-weighted tariff changes and retaliatory actions, the tracker highlights a pivot toward more protectionist U.S. trade policies. Continuous monitoring of these developments is critical for assessing the long-term impact on global economic stability and the status of evolving trade agreements.
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306.
The military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has severely disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening twenty percent of global oil and gas supplies and disproportionately impacting Asian economies. While nations like Japan are buffered by significant strategic reserves, others like India face immediate risks due to limited storage and recent shifts in import patterns. Ultimately, these supply shocks are expected to drive a temporary resurgence in coal usage for affordability while simultaneously accelerating long-term strategic investments in nuclear and renewable energy to ensure national security and reduce reliance on volatile Middle Eastern transit routes.
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307.
The article analyzes the geopolitical risk inherent in the U.S.-China relationship, questioning whether Beijing is poised to overplay its strategic hand. The immediate context is the planned March 2026 summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, following a fragile economic truce reached in October 2025. While temporary agreements have eased immediate tensions, the core strategic challenge remains managing China's long-term ambitions and potential for escalation. Policymakers must prepare for continued volatility, balancing the necessity of high-level dialogue with the risk of rapid strategic reversals.
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308.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a major, destabilizing escalation, pushing the region toward a protracted conflagration. Experts argue that Iran's retaliatory strikes were a calculated, existential move, demonstrating a willingness to engage in a long conflict by targeting soft underbellies, such as Gulf neighbors and American assets. This strategy allows Iran to gamble that it can outlast the current U.S. political administration. For policy, the primary implication is managing the risk of regional spillover, mitigating domestic economic fallout, and navigating the highly decentralized and politically charged nature of U.S. decision-making regarding the conflict.
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309.The Defense Contract Management Agency's Resource Workload Model Ecosystem: A Basis for Enhanced Warfighter Support (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Defense Contract Management Agency’s (DCMA) Integrated Resource Workload Model (IRWM), concluding that while it is a robust tool for aggregate manpower planning, it requires significant refinements to better reflect operational realities. Based on over 225 interviews and an in-depth review of the model's structure, researchers identified discrepancies between modeled estimates and actual field activities, often stemming from insufficient documentation, unmodeled supervisory tasks, and user-unfriendly data entry systems. To maximize the model's utility, the report recommends formalizing standard operating procedures, improving internal communication to build trust, and leveraging the modeling ecosystem for strategic scenario planning regarding budget and mission shifts.
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310.
The article highlights that India's development trajectory requires a fundamental recalibration of its foreign policy. Historically, India assumed the US would prioritize its partnership as part of a larger strategy to counter China; however, recent actions, such as tariffs, have challenged this assumption. Consequently, while India has signed new trade agreements with the United States, the strategic pivot involves reducing over-reliance on Washington. For future development, India must diversify its geopolitical partnerships and adopt a more balanced, multi-polar diplomatic approach.
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311.
The article posits that small and middle powers, such as Taiwan, possess the capacity to disproportionately influence global stability, shifting the burden of peace away from great powers. Taiwan's unique leverage stems from its strategic location as a vital gateway in the Western Pacific and its established leadership in advanced technology sectors. For policy, the implication is that Taiwan should proactively utilize its economic and geographic assets to manage regional tensions and contribute actively to global stability, rather than being forced into a binary geopolitical choice.
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312.
Ambassador Robert Blackwill proposes a "resolute global leadership" grand strategy that fuses superior military primacy with a muscular revitalization of the rules-based international order. He argues that recent liberal internationalism proved too passive against adversaries like China and Russia, while the transactional "Trumpism" approach dangerously abandons the alliances and moral frameworks essential to U.S. security. To restore influence, the report advocates for a significant increase in the defense budget, winning the AI technology race, and pivoting military resources to Asia to deter Chinese hegemony.
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313.
Marking the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion, this analysis highlights that Russia’s military efforts have devolved into a slow-moving war of attrition characterized by unprecedented casualties (1.2 million) and a stagnating economy. Despite minimal territorial gains, Russia has intensified its drone campaign, while Ukraine faces a staggering $588 billion reconstruction challenge and a vulnerable centralized energy grid. Crucially, the financial burden of military support is shifting from the U.S. to Europe, requiring new procurement mechanisms like the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) to sustain Ukraine’s defense.
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314.
The Brookings report finds that President Trump’s second-term staffing strategy has prioritized loyalty and extensive pre-transition planning, leading to a more stable senior staff but a highly centralized executive branch. Key evidence includes a record-setting initial pace of nominations facilitated by a 2025 Senate rule change, contrasted by an unprecedented wave of firings targeting inspectors general and officials with 'for-cause' protections. These actions suggest a deliberate effort to remove institutional guardrails and consolidate political power within the White House, significantly reducing the independence of federal agencies.
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315.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, a panel of CFR experts argues that Europe must transition from emergency response to a long-term, self-reliant security and recovery architecture. The recommendations emphasize integrating Ukraine’s innovative defense industrial base into European supply chains and preparing for overt Russian provocations that may require European action independent of U.S. support. Strategically, this necessitates balancing robust military deterrence with diplomatic dialogue and modernizing humanitarian aid through agile public-private partnerships to ensure regional stability during and after the conflict.
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316.
The Brookings Institution highlights the growing disconnect between educational systems and labor market needs, which complicates the transition from school to high-wage employment for students and workers. The event examines how fragmented pathways—including degrees, apprenticeships, and work-based learning—often lack the alignment necessary to provide learners with relevant experience or employers with skilled talent. Panelists argue for systemic reforms to make high school more career-relevant, postsecondary options more affordable, and professional entry points more accessible for lifelong learners. Ultimately, building clearer pathways to 'good work' requires better coordination between educational institutions and employers to ensure workforce development meets modern economic demands.
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317.
This report argues that kava trade offers a strategic 'trade, not aid' pathway for the United States to revitalize relations with Pacific Island nations following the dismantling of USAID. With the global kava market valued at up to $3 billion, the crop represents a vital economic engine for major exporters like Fiji and Vanuatu. The authors recommend leveraging the Millennium Challenge Corporation and Development Finance Corporation to address structural barriers, including agricultural financing gaps and climate-related infrastructure needs. By fostering these niche commercial ties, Washington can reinforce its strategic presence and support Pacific-led development goals in a geopolitically contested region.
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318.
The report argues that the United States must urgently prepare for an imminent leadership transition in Iran—ranging from managed clerical continuity to an IRGC-led military takeover or total regime collapse—following recent internal uprisings and regional conflict. It highlights that while a democratic shift is unlikely in the near term, the transition will likely trigger opportunistic escalation by proxy groups and increased internal repression. Consequently, U.S. strategy should focus on maintaining a strong regional deterrent, supporting Iranian civil society's connectivity, and readying diplomatic frameworks for nuclear transparency and hostage release.
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319.
Ukraine’s trajectory from 1991 to 2026 demonstrates a persistent struggle for independence defined by Russian military aggression and a shifting international security architecture. Milestones such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 2022 invasion highlight the failure of early security guarantees, leading to a war of attrition with combined casualties reaching an estimated 1.8 million by early 2026. Recent developments indicate a pivot toward bilateral U.S.-Russia peace summits that often exclude Ukrainian representation, creating a strategic tension between continued Western military support and great-power diplomacy. Ultimately, the ongoing targeting of energy infrastructure and deadlocked negotiations suggest that Ukraine's sovereignty remains precarious despite sustained G7 and NATO commitments.
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320.
The symposium concludes that while current AI-driven investment mirrors the speculative mania of 1929, the primary systemic risk stems from a combination of high sovereign debt and potential policy errors rather than market volatility alone. Panelists noted parallels such as the democratization of finance through leverage and a growing gap between massive AI capital expenditures and realized revenues. To avoid a repeat of the Great Depression's domino effect, experts advocate for proactive financial regulation and caution that current high debt levels may limit the effectiveness of traditional crisis intervention strategies.
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321.
CFR analysts argue that Western policymakers must immediately begin planning for a post-settlement Europe, as a ceasefire in Ukraine will not eliminate Russia's long-term security threat but rather shift it toward hybrid warfare and military testing of NATO cohesion. Potential risks include deepening transatlantic friction over sanctions relief and commercial normalization with Moscow, alongside intra-European disputes regarding defense burden-sharing. To mitigate these threats, the report recommends a G7-coordinated Russia strategy, a revitalized 'Harmel-style' NATO blueprint for dual-track deterrence, and the implementation of new Europe-wide risk reduction measures to stabilize the expanded NATO-Russia border.
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322.
This CFR event centered on the documentary 'Atomic Echoes,' which examines the multi-generational human and health consequences of the 1945 atomic bombings for both Japanese survivors and American 'atomic veterans.' The discussion highlighted how historical classification and the focus on strategic deterrence often obscure the long-term trauma and radiation-related illnesses suffered by individuals on both sides of the conflict. Policy implications include the urgent need to address the erosion of international nuclear guardrails following the expiration of treaties like New START and the rising risk of inadvertent escalation. Panelists emphasized that human-centered narratives are essential for engaging the public in contemporary debates over nuclear modernization and the sole authority of the executive branch in weapon deployment.
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323.
The Supreme Court's ruling in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad tariffs, reasserting that the power to raise revenue resides with Congress under the Taxing Clause. While the decision eliminates the administration’s primary tool for immediate, open-ended duties, Brookings experts note that significant economic uncertainty persists as the executive branch pivots to alternative authorities like Sections 122, 232, and 301. This shift may force more deliberate, evidence-based trade investigations and increase legislative accountability, yet it also threatens to exacerbate federal deficits and complicate relations with key allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
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324.
This retrospective analyzes the legacy of John Foster Dulles, a central figure in 1950s U.S. foreign policy known for his doctrines of 'massive retaliation,' 'brinkmanship,' and 'rollback.' While Dulles provided the bold moral and rhetorical framework for American exceptionalism during the Cold War, historical evidence suggests President Eisenhower maintained ultimate control over policy decisions, often opting for caution over Dulles's aggressive stances. The article also highlights the damaging long-term effects of Dulles’s purge of State Department experts on U.S. diplomatic intelligence and regional expertise.
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325.
A 6-3 U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has created significant trade policy volatility, forcing the White House to pivot to Section 122 authorities to maintain levies. Key trading partners including India, Malaysia, and Indonesia are responding by delaying the ratification or implementation of trade deals originally negotiated under the shadow of the now-illegal tariffs. While the decision offers a temporary legal check on executive trade power, the administration's immediate recourse to alternative authorities indicates a sustained period of trade friction and damaged diplomatic leverage in future economic negotiations.
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326.
This Brookings report finds that the Trump administration’s second-term China strategy has produced significant rhetoric but few measurable results after one year. Key economic indicators like manufacturing employment and industrial production remain stagnant despite high-profile investment pledges, while U.S. global standing among allies has declined sharply. In technology, inconsistent export controls and infrastructure bottlenecks are straining America’s lead in AI against a more self-sufficient Chinese ecosystem. Consequently, the administration must shift from transactional signaling to sustained policy execution and alliance rebuilding to effectively reduce strategic dependencies and counter Beijing's influence.
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327.Assessing Xi’s Unprecedented Purges of China’s Military: Key Developments and Potential Implications (CSIS)
Xi Jinping has conducted an unprecedented purge of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), removing over 100 senior officers and nearly decapitating the Central Military Commission to ensure absolute political loyalty. This campaign has created a significant leadership void, with approximately 52% of top positions impacted, severely undermining the PLA's near-term readiness for complex military operations like a Taiwan invasion. While the purges disrupt immediate capabilities, they enable Xi to replace the 'old guard' with a younger, more technically literate generation of 'intelligentized' officers. Long-term implications include a potentially more aggressive military that is ideologically subservient, though at a heightened risk of strategic miscalculation due to the suppression of realistic operational advice.
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328.
The global dominance of U.S. cloud "hyperscalers" is increasingly viewed by international partners as an untenable strategic vulnerability rather than a commercial convenience. Following the weaponization of digital infrastructure against Russia and the Trump administration's perceived erratic foreign policy, nations like India and the Netherlands are accelerating efforts to build sovereign cloud platforms to reduce American dependence. This erosion of trust threatens long-term U.S. digital influence and may cede market share to Chinese competitors as allies prioritize technological autonomy over the cost-efficiency of American platforms.
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329.
Four years after Russia's invasion, the conflict has evolved into a long-term war of attrition that requires a transition from short-term aid to a generational strategy for European security. Despite significant casualties and sanctions, Russia has maintained its war effort through economic ties with China and the Global South, while Ukraine has successfully shifted toward deeper defense industrial cooperation with European partners. Experts suggest that because Russia's maximalist goals remain unchanged, Western policymakers must prepare for a multiyear struggle focused on conventional deterrence and cautious escalation management.
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330.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, the conflict has evolved into a protracted struggle characterized by stalled U.S.-led peace efforts and a strategic shift toward European leadership in military support. High-intensity fighting has resulted in over 465,000 total casualties and a projected $588 billion reconstruction cost, highlighting the severe long-term impact on regional energy infrastructure and economic stability. This transition toward a European-led 'Coalition of the Willing' reflects a pivot in great-power dynamics, suggesting that future conflicts will require sustained societal mobilization and resilient regional alliances.
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331.
President Trump’s State of the Union address prioritized domestic economic issues and immigration while framing his 'peace through strength' doctrine as a success in stabilizing global conflicts. He defended the continuation of tariffs despite judicial setbacks and highlighted the recognition of a new interim government in Venezuela as a major shift in Western Hemisphere policy. These developments suggest an administration focused on transactional diplomacy and protectionist economic measures, emphasizing increased burden-sharing from both international allies and domestic technology firms.
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332.
China's People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly advancing its 'blue-water' capabilities, marked by a significant increase in aircraft carrier operations beyond the first island chain. In 2025, the Liaoning and Shandong carriers spent a record 58 days in the Western Pacific, conducting approximately 1,680 sorties and their first simultaneous deployment in the region. This trend signals a strategic shift toward sustained power projection far from Chinese shores, directly challenging established maritime security dynamics. Consequently, regional and global actors must reassess their naval strategies to account for the PLAN's growing reach and operational complexity.
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333.
This update outlines significant legislative and policy changes across several Indian states, highlighting Maharashtra's new climate finance strategy and Kerala's ambitious 2026 IT policy aimed at tripling IT space. Key developments include Gujarat's expansion of health insurance coverage to 27 million citizens and amendments to labor laws allowing women to work night shifts. These measures reflect a decentralized approach to addressing climate change, digital infrastructure, and social welfare, with direct implications for regional economic competitiveness and public service delivery in India.
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334.Chatham House appoints Owen Jenkins as Research Director for Africa, Middle East and North Africa, and Asia Pacific (Chatham House)
Chatham House has appointed senior British diplomat Owen Jenkins as Research Director for Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Asia Pacific. Jenkins brings extensive experience from the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, including roles as Director General for the Indo-Pacific and Ambassador to Indonesia. His appointment is strategically designed to enhance the institute's analysis of the evolving world order, shifting global alliances, and the rising influence of regional powers. This move integrates high-level diplomatic expertise into the institute's executive leadership to strengthen its external influence and policy impact across the Global South.
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335.
Total U.S. aid to Ukraine reached $188 billion by late 2025, though no new aid legislation has been passed since April 2024, leading European contributions to collectively surpass U.S. support. While the Trump administration continues to deliver previously appropriated funds and facilitates third-party weapon transfers via the PURL program, it has shifted the U.S. stance toward acting as an impartial peace broker. This development underscores a significant pivot in transatlantic burden-sharing and suggests a potential winding down of direct American military assistance.
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336.
The Supreme Court’s ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize presidential tariffs strips the administration of its most flexible geoeconomic weapon, forcing a shift toward more bureaucratic trade authorities. Experts suggest the executive branch will likely invoke Section 122 for temporary 150-day tariffs while initiating formal investigations under Sections 301 and 232 to reconstruct the previous tariff regime. This transition creates significant business uncertainty regarding potential refunds and trade agreement stability, and may paradoxically lead to a more aggressive use of alternative tools like export controls and financial sanctions.
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337.
Stephen M. Walt argues that the current American foreign policy constitutes "predatory hegemony," wherein the U.S. uses its overwhelming power to extract short-term concessions and tribute from both allies and rivals in a zero-sum manner. This aggressive shift is presented as a reaction to the perceived failures and excesses of the post-Cold War unipolar order. The reliance on tactics like tariffs and threats, rather than traditional diplomatic restraint, is fundamentally eroding America's long-term global power and stability. Consequently, the article warns that medium powers must cooperate among themselves to defend their interests and seek a more equitable partnership with the United States.
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338.
Max Boot argues that the Trump administration must heed military warnings regarding the high risks of a sustained conflict with Iran, which poses far greater dangers than previous limited strikes. Key concerns include potential Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and a critical depletion of U.S. precision-guided munitions required for other global theaters like China and Russia. Additionally, the author notes that extended naval deployments are straining military readiness while a lack of regional ally support complicates any exit strategy. Consequently, a prolonged conflict could severely weaken U.S. strategic posture and global economic stability without guaranteed regime concessions.
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339.EST Rapid Roundup: How Will the Supreme Court’s IEEPA Ruling Impact U.S.-China Tech Competition? (CSIS)
The Supreme Court's 2026 ruling that the IEEPA does not authorize presidential tariffs has upended U.S. trade policy, forcing an immediate shift to alternative authorities and creating significant legal uncertainty for $150 billion in revenues. CSIS experts argue that while this provides China with a tactical and propaganda advantage ahead of upcoming summits, it compels Congress to reclaim its constitutional role in defining a more strategic and stable trade framework. The analysis highlights that reliance on coercive tariffs alone has failed to curb the overall trade deficit or effectively reindustrialize the U.S., instead increasing costs for critical energy and technology supply chains. Consequently, the panel recommends a policy pivot toward a 'positive agenda' that prioritizes domestic innovation, infrastructure, and allied cooperation over blunt import substitution.
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340.
Flash droughts are rapidly intensifying climate events that represent a new systemic risk because their speed collapses traditional warning timelines and overwhelms existing drought governance frameworks. These events, which have increased in frequency since the 1950s, cause disproportionate damage to agriculture and energy security, as seen in the 2012 U.S. losses and the 2010 Russian heatwave that triggered global food price spikes. To mitigate these risks, policymakers must establish flash droughts as a distinct category, leveraging high-resolution satellite data and anticipatory financing to trigger interventions before losses become inevitable.
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341.
The article examines the historical security architecture built around Japan, which has relied on the US-led post-WWII international system for stability and global trade. While this system has successfully maintained norms against outright conquest, the core finding is that global security leaders recognize this established framework is not guaranteed to endure. This suggests that Japan and its allies must prepare for potential shifts or breakdowns in the long-standing security assurances provided by the United States. Consequently, Japan's national security strategy must account for a future where the current multilateral guarantees are unstable.
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342.
The CFR Global Energy Tracker reveals that while high-carbon sources still account for 89% of energy consumption across 79 tracked countries, low-carbon alternatives are steadily rising, particularly in developed nations. Significant gains in renewable energy shares in the UK and China demonstrate the impact of declining technology costs, though global energy demand has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 6%. The data underscores an uneven global transition, with some nations like Norway and France leading in low-carbon reliance while others remain heavily dependent on coal. Consequently, policymakers must address these regional disparities and the persistent growth in total energy demand to accelerate effective decarbonization strategies.
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343.
This CFR guide outlines the 'America First' transformation of U.S. foreign policy during the first year of President Trump’s second term, emphasizing a shift toward unilateralism and aggressive economic nationalism. Key developments highlighted include the 2025 National Security Strategy's focus on regional dominance, the military capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, and significant withdrawals from international organizations and climate agreements. These policies have strained traditional alliances while prioritizing U.S. resource access and domestic border security over global humanitarian assistance. Ultimately, the administration's approach suggests a future of transactional global engagement and a preference for military-backed regime change over multilateral diplomacy.
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344.EST Rapid Roundup: What Comes Next for U.S. Trade Policy After the Supreme Court’s IEEPA Ruling? (CSIS)
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize presidential tariffs, reaffirming that the power to tax resides with Congress. While this decision curtails broad executive trade authority, the administration is pivoting to alternative statutes like Section 122 and Section 301 to sustain its protectionist agenda, albeit with more procedural hurdles. The ruling necessitates a complex refund process for $160 billion in collected revenues, yet experts warn that persistent policy volatility will continue to create an 'uncertainty tax' on global investment and supply chains.
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345.US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs: Early analysis from Chatham House experts (Chatham House)
The US Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs, ruling that the administration exceeded its executive authority. Despite this legal setback, the White House immediately pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to implement a new 15% global tariff, though experts warn this move remains vulnerable to further litigation. Ultimately, the ruling fails to restore predictability to US trade policy, forcing global partners to navigate continued protectionist volatility and pursue long-term trade diversification strategies.
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346.
George Kennan’s 1946 'Long Telegram' and subsequent 'X Article' established the foundational strategy of containment that defined U.S. foreign policy for four decades. He argued that Soviet expansionism was driven by internal ideological dynamics rather than external incentives, necessitating a firm, long-term counterforce to Russian encroachment. Beyond military might, Kennan emphasized that successfully containing the Soviet threat required the United States to maintain a healthy, vibrant, and spiritually vital domestic society. This strategy ultimately guided the U.S. to victory in the Cold War by managing geopolitical competition until the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991.
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347.
The global health architecture is shifting from multilateral cooperation toward transactional bilateralism, characterized by new strategies that tie health aid to commercial interests and strategic resource access. In response, Africa is pursuing 'health sovereignty' by prioritizing regional manufacturing, unified procurement mechanisms, and internal reforms to eliminate systemic inefficiencies and aid dependency. This transition signals a move away from traditional grant-based assistance toward a model of 'commercial diplomacy,' requiring recipient nations to leverage collective bargaining and domestic financing to maintain policy agency.
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348.
The panel argues that while central bank independence (CBI) is increasingly challenged by high public debt and political populism, it remains essential for anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining price stability. Experts highlight that 'fiscal dominance' in high-debt environments increases political pressure to lower interest rates, particularly in the US, risking a return to 1970s-style inflation volatility. To maintain legitimacy, central banks must improve transparency and adapt to a new era of frequent supply shocks—such as AI and geopolitical shifts—which may drive higher neutral interest rates globally. Consequently, failure to safeguard CBI could lead to financial repression and a fragmentation of the global monetary regime.
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349.
The panel argues that digital public infrastructure (DPI) is now core state infrastructure, and the key policy question is governance: whether identity, payments, and data-sharing rails are built in the public interest rather than left to fragmented or purely private control. Speakers cite international evidence that open and interoperable approaches can scale quickly and cheaply, including India’s Aadhaar/UPI, Brazil’s Pix, Estonia/X-Road adoption elsewhere, and reported cost and inclusion gains from open-source deployments in countries like the Philippines and Rwanda. They contend the UK’s main constraints are not just funding but weak political leadership, low-trust rollout choices (especially around digital ID framing), rigid Treasury/procurement models, and limited iterative delivery capacity. The strategic implication is to pursue small, high-value pilots that build trust, then scale through clear political ownership, procurement reform, open standards, and multi-stakeholder governance to balance sovereignty, resilience, and innovation.
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350.Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro? (Chatham House)
The panel argues that the U.S. seizure of Maduro marks a broader shift to explicit hemispheric power politics, where Washington is willing to use force based on narrowly defined national interests rather than traditional multilateral norms. Speakers contend that while the operation was tactically successful, it does not resolve Venezuela’s underlying governance, corruption, and institutional collapse, making durable stabilization and democratic transition highly uncertain. They also stress that the oil rationale is weak: Venezuela’s heavy crude, degraded infrastructure, legal uncertainty, and soft global demand make rapid production recovery costly and commercially unattractive, while disruption to China is likely limited. Strategically, the event signals a more fragmented Latin America, pressures partners into pragmatic bilateral bargaining with the U.S., and suggests policymakers should prioritize scenario planning for follow-on interventions, institutional reconstruction pathways, and tighter coordination among non-U.S. actors to preserve regional sovereignty and stability.
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351.
The article argues that although the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s broad IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional, the administration can still sustain much of its trade agenda through other delegated statutes. It explains that Section 122 can quickly reimpose a temporary across-the-board tariff (up to 15% for 150 days), while Sections 232 and 301 provide more durable sectoral or country-specific tariffs with few effective political constraints once in place; Section 338 is another possible but legally untested option. The core reasoning is that no single authority fully replicates IEEPA’s sweep, but together they can recreate tariffs in a legally defensible patchwork, albeit with procedural limits, sunset risks, and likely litigation. Strategically, policymakers should expect continued tariff leverage in negotiations but greater legal and political friction, including pressure for congressional guardrails and higher concern over consumer and small-business costs.
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352.
The CATO Institute critiques the Trump administration's Maritime Action Plan (MAP), arguing that its attempt to revive commercial shipbuilding through subsidies and protectionist mandates is economically unrealistic and potentially detrimental to national security. Key obstacles include US shipbuilding costs being five times the global average, severe labor shortages, and antiquated infrastructure that cannot be easily fixed by government intervention. The report warns that siphoning skilled workers into subsidized commercial projects may worsen existing delays in naval shipbuilding rather than providing spillover benefits. Instead of isolationist industrial policy, the author recommends leveraging allied shipyards for non-combatant vessels, providing steady demand signals, and reforming the Jones Act to modernize the US merchant fleet.
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353.
The United States should 'leapfrog' China’s critical mineral dominance by prioritizing disruptive innovation, waste recovery, and recycling instead of attempting to out-mine or out-process China's entrenched capacity. The report argues that traditional mining projects are too slow to mitigate immediate geopolitical risks, whereas breakthroughs in materials science and AI-enabled extraction from industrial waste offer faster, more resilient paths to independence. Key policy recommendations include launching a national innovation strategy, bridging financing gaps for deep-tech startups, and coordinating with G7 allies to secure circular mineral supply chains.
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354.
CFR argues that Trump’s second-term trade strategy is not a single tariff reset but a rolling, country-by-country restructuring of U.S. trade relations through mostly nonbinding framework deals. The tracker shows that while Liberation Day tariffs set high baselines, subsequent bilateral agreements and exemptions lowered effective rates unevenly and exchanged tariff relief for market-access concessions, purchase pledges, investment commitments, and alignment with U.S. economic-security measures. It also finds these deals are highly flexible and unilateral in design, with weak legal durability, quick-termination provisions, and little congressional constraint, making them closer to instruments of leverage than traditional trade agreements. The policy implication is a less predictable global trade environment where partners must continuously bargain with Washington and balance access to the U.S. market against sovereignty costs and geopolitical exposure, especially vis-a-vis China.
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355.
The discussion argues that 2026 conflict risk will be shaped less by traditional multilateral conflict management and more by sphere-of-influence politics and transactional dealmaking by major powers. Ero’s reasoning is that with over 60 active conflicts, institutions like the UN and established mediators are increasingly sidelined, while regional and great-power actors (e.g., the US in Latin America, Gulf states in Sudan, Turkey in Syria, China in Myanmar) now carry more leverage over war and peace outcomes. She stresses that many current “peace” efforts are short-term truces rather than durable settlements, with places like Gaza, Sudan, and Somalia exposed to continued violence due to proxy competition, weak governance arrangements, and miscalculation risks among powerful states. For policy strategy, the implication is to prioritize pragmatic coalition-building with the actors who actually hold leverage, convert ceasefires into longer political processes, and adapt conflict-prevention tools to a more fragmented, law-weaker international order.
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356.
Maddox argues that the international system has shifted into destabilizing US-China superpower rivalry, with both powers undermining global peace and prosperity in different ways. She contends that Washington’s transactional unilateralism under Trump and Beijing’s coercive techno-industrial expansion have together weakened alliances, eroded legal norms, and increased risks of conflict, including over Taiwan and transatlantic security. The lecture supports this with examples including tariff coercion, pressure over critical minerals, intensified military signaling, and challenges to institutions such as NATO, the UN system, and global trade mechanisms. Strategically, she calls on non-superpower states to strengthen and build institutions, resolve regional conflicts through principled coalitions, and actively uphold international law to preserve a rules-based order without relying on US leadership.
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357.
CFR reports that the White House is ending a large immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota after intense backlash, even as the administration says it remains committed to mass deportations. The drawdown follows allegations of due-process violations, aggressive tactics, and the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens, with DHS still claiming thousands of arrests and no full public accounting yet of all detainees. Evidence in the piece suggests the shift is tactical rather than strategic: personnel are being reassigned, not a broader rollback of interior enforcement, and CBP as well as ICE have expanded domestic operations. For policymakers, this raises a near-term tradeoff between enforcement intensity and political/legal sustainability, with DHS funding negotiations likely to hinge on oversight, transparency, and limits on warrantless or masked operations.
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358.
Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Programme positions itself as an interdisciplinary policy platform providing objective analysis on major issues across South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific. Its core approach combines independent research, regional partnerships, and direct engagement with decision-makers to shape practical and constructive policy outcomes. The programme supports its analysis through expert roundtables, webinars, conferences, and publications, while also advising private-sector and multilateral stakeholders. Strategically, this model implies that effective policy toward Asia-Pacific dynamics requires cross-sector evidence, sustained regional collaboration, and proactive dialogue between analysts and policymakers.
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359.
The report argues that the U.S. must transition from a purely protectionist response to China's automotive dominance toward a proactive strategy of global competition in autonomous, connected, and electric (ACE) vehicles. While current tariffs provide temporary breathing room, the author warns that indefinite isolation risks leaving the U.S. as a technological island of obsolete internal combustion engines while ceding international markets to Chinese firms. To maintain competitiveness, the U.S. should provide conditional financial support to domestic manufacturers, coordinate supply-chain diversification with allies, and manage national security risks through data localization rather than total exclusion. This strategy aims to secure the economic and environmental benefits of the automotive revolution while navigating the geopolitical rivalry with China.
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360.
The CFR’s 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identifies a significant rise in global instability, highlighting five high-likelihood, high-impact contingencies including intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and potential U.S. military operations in Venezuela. Based on a survey of over 600 experts, the report emphasizes a shift toward interstate conflict and identifies domestic political violence in the U.S. and AI-enabled cyberattacks as critical threats to national security. These findings suggest that the reduction of conflict prevention infrastructure and more coercive diplomatic stances increase the risk of the United States being drawn into costly, unpredicted military interventions.
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361.
Chatham House argues that mega AI summits are useful for networking and agenda-setting but are unlikely to deliver meaningful international governance agreements. The reasoning is that forums like the New Delhi AI Impact Summit are too crowded and politically fragmented, with competing national and commercial priorities, while US–China rivalry and weakening multilateral norms make binding global deals improbable. It cites recent summit outcomes as mostly non-binding and principles-based, and points to more promising progress in smaller scientist-led, technical-standards, and regional venues that can build trust and produce operational proposals. The strategic implication is to prioritize a “splinter to scale” approach: develop tested, inclusive governance tools in focused forums, then scale them through larger diplomatic platforms with middle-power backing.
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362.
Chatham House argues that accountability mechanisms must rapidly adapt because cyber operations are now being used to facilitate core international crimes, not just conventional cybercrime. The event highlights the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s new policy on cyber-enabled crimes under the Rome Statute as a key signal that cyber-enabled atrocities should be investigated and prosecuted on equal footing with offline conduct. Its reasoning centers on clarifying which cyber acts meet international criminal law thresholds, building workable legal frameworks, and addressing practical barriers to attribution, evidence collection, and prosecution. Strategically, states and international institutions should align domestic and international legal tools, strengthen investigative cooperation, and prioritize capacity for cyber-forensics and cross-border accountability.
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363.
The 'America First' tariffs of 2025-2026 have not triggered an immediate recession, largely due to the U.S. economy's resilience and the relatively small role of traded goods in its overall GDP. However, the policy marks a definitive end to the post-WWII rules-based trade order, as tariffs are increasingly used as tools for foreign policy leverage and economic statecraft rather than mere industry protection. While businesses have adapted in the short term, experts warn of long-term consequences including persistent inflationary pressure and reduced economic competition. Ultimately, the shift necessitates a new national consensus to balance the benefits of open trade against the strategic risks of dependency on geopolitical adversaries.
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364.
CFR argues that President Trump’s new Board of Peace is becoming the central U.S.-led mechanism for shaping Gaza’s postwar order, but its viability hinges on Hamas demilitarization and credible governance arrangements. Evidence cited includes broad diplomatic participation (27 formal members and about 45 expected delegations), expected reconstruction pledges of at least $5 billion, and a governance model that currently excludes Palestinian factions in favor of a separate technocratic committee. Conditions on the ground remain unstable, with limited medical evacuations and returns through Rafah, blocked humanitarian missions, ongoing Israeli strikes, and mutual truce-violation accusations. Strategically, the initiative could accelerate reconstruction and coordination, but exclusion risks and unresolved security control could undermine legitimacy and push Gaza back toward partition or renewed conflict if disarmament and political reintegration fail.
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365.
The article argues that the Munich Security Conference exposed a deepening political-strategic split inside the West, even as leaders tried to project unity on core security issues. It cites Marco Rubio’s speech as emblematic: he reassured Europe that it still matters to Washington, but paired that with hard limits on U.S. support and warnings that America will act unilaterally when allies resist. The piece also points to contrasting interventions by Wang Yi, Keir Starmer, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to show how states are recalibrating between U.S.-China rivalry and uncertain transatlantic cohesion. Strategically, it implies European governments should prepare for more conditional U.S. backing, invest in autonomous defense and diplomatic capacity, and pursue flexible coalitions to manage both Russia-related threats and wider great-power competition.
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366.
The paper argues that South Korea is becoming a major defence exporter, especially as European states accelerate rearmament and seek reliable suppliers beyond traditional sources. It attributes Seoul’s rise to a combination of scalable industrial capacity, relatively fast delivery timelines, competitive pricing, and growing political-strategic alignment with European security priorities. The analysis also highlights constraints, including production bottlenecks, technology-transfer sensitivities, sustainment demands, and the need to balance exports with South Korea’s own military readiness and regional risks. Strategically, it suggests Europe–South Korea cooperation should move from one-off procurement to longer-term partnerships in co-production, interoperability, and supply-chain resilience.
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367.
CFR reports that U.S. Southern Command’s anti-drug boat strike campaign intensified, with eleven people killed in one day across the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean, making it the deadliest day of the operation this year. The brief notes this brings reported fatalities to at least 144 since September, while the U.S. has not publicly released identities or evidence supporting claims that those killed were tied to trafficking networks. It highlights growing legal and normative challenges, including wrongful-death litigation and expert arguments that lethal force against suspected traffickers is unlawful absent an imminent violent threat. Strategically, the campaign may impose rising legal, reputational, and regional diplomatic costs, suggesting a need for stricter oversight, evidentiary transparency, and greater reliance on interdiction and criminal prosecution rather than expanded military strikes.
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368.
CFR panelists argued that commodity markets have shifted from a demand-led cycle to a supply- and policy-driven regime, with metals (especially gold and silver) rising while oil remains structurally softer. They cited evidence including sustained central-bank gold purchases since the 2022 reserve-freeze shock, growing investor hedging demand, tariff uncertainty under Section 232, and OPEC+/non-OPEC supply conditions that cap oil despite geopolitical tensions. The speakers assessed that oil spikes are still possible from Iran-related disruptions or labor shocks, but likely temporary unless a major outage occurs; baseline Brent expectations clustered around the high-$50s to low-$60s. Strategically, governments and firms should treat commodities as instruments of national security and currency power (including dollar-denominated oil flows), while preparing for persistent precious-metal strength, selective industrial-metal volatility, and policy tradeoffs in U.S.-Venezuela-Canada energy alignment.
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369.
Chatham House argues that a stronger Japan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would be broadly beneficial for Asia by helping balance both Chinese dominance and excessive dependence on the United States. The piece reasons that many Asian governments value Japan’s predictable diplomacy, investment record, and growing security cooperation, especially as China’s military pressure rises and multilateral institutions weaken. It also notes major constraints: Takaichi’s tax-cut and spending agenda is fiscally difficult, constitutional military reform faces high political hurdles, and Tokyo is under simultaneous pressure from Beijing and Washington. Strategically, the article implies Japan should build domestic economic resilience while deepening ties with India, Southeast Asia, and other US allies (such as the UK and Australia) and stabilizing relations with China to avoid regional escalation.
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370.Norman E. Alexander Family M Foundation Forum on Science and Foreign Policy: U.S. Science and Research in a Changing Landscape (CFR)
The webinar argues that global oil geopolitics has been fundamentally reshaped by Russia’s war in Ukraine, OPEC+ supply management, and shifting demand centers, even as the energy transition advances. Carolyn Kissane stresses that the world still consumes over 100 million barrels per day, with demand growth concentrated in Asia, while Russia has largely sustained exports by redirecting discounted crude to buyers such as India and China. She also highlights that state-owned producers and OPEC+ coordination continue to exert strong influence on prices, making markets vulnerable when supply is curtailed in already tight conditions. The policy implication is a dual-track strategy: preserve short-term energy security and price stability through diversified supply and contingency tools, while accelerating credible decarbonization pathways that account for uneven capacity and financing constraints across regions.
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371.
IISS argues that the EU’s SAFE instrument, while framed as opening some space for third-country participation, will in practice constrain non-EU defence suppliers more than many expect. The paper points to strict eligibility rules—especially the 35% non-EU component cap, EU-centered design-authority requirements, and tight 2030 delivery timelines—as major barriers, with full design-authority transfer seen as particularly unrealistic for many partners. It also cites uneven and politically difficult “enhanced terms” negotiations (e.g., late Canada agreement, UK obstacles, and no invitations for South Korea and Turkiye) as evidence that access is limited in practice. Strategically, these constraints could reduce EU access to allied technologies, weaken interoperability and joint development partnerships, and slow capability innovation in EU-funded procurement.
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372.
The report argues that European nations must strengthen sanctions against Russia’s 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers by mandating adequate insurance coverage through stricter regulation of flag states. This strategy aims to force vessels back into Western-regulated services, ensuring compliance with price caps and mitigating the risk of uninsured environmental disasters. Economic modeling indicates that aggressive enforcement, including insurance disclosure and flag state liability, could reduce Russian Baltic oil tax revenues by up to 14% while shifting the majority of trade to compliant vessels. To implement this, the UK and EU should coordinate on universal maritime standards and exert diplomatic and economic pressure on 'flags of convenience' to eliminate loopholes used for sanctions evasion.
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373.
CFR argues that a future Taiwan conflict will likely be a protracted, regional war involving multiple actors and external triggers, rather than a contained three-way contest. The report warns that China’s military modernization and gray-zone tactics have eroded U.S. deterrent advantages and shortened operational warning times. To address these new risks, the U.S. must shift from isolated planning to deeply integrated, pre-crisis consultative mechanisms with regional allies like Japan and the Philippines.
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374.
Chatham House argues that the 2026 security environment is being transformed by overlapping geopolitical, military, and technological shocks that are testing established alliances and institutions. Its reasoning highlights NATO burden-sharing strains around 5% defence spending targets, strategic recalibration under a renewed Trump administration, China’s military modernization alongside Indo-Pacific flashpoints, and persistent interstate/proxy conflicts in the Middle East. It also emphasizes that climate-conflict dynamics, critical materials competition, and increasingly sophisticated cyber and espionage activity are blurring traditional warfighting domains. The policy implication is that governments and industry should prioritize cross-domain strategy, stronger public-private defence partnerships, and more efficient use of rising defence budgets to build resilience and credible deterrence.
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375.
Chatham House argues that Trump’s energy-dominance agenda is delivering visible short-term gains in US oil and LNG output, but global market dynamics make sustained political control over energy trajectories difficult. The article points to record US oil production, LNG export growth above 20%, coal-plant retention measures, and ambitious nuclear expansion goals, while also noting renewables still took most new US power capacity in 2025 and globally covered all demand growth as they surpassed coal in generation. It emphasizes that energy investment cycles run 5–10 years, so current outcomes reflect earlier decisions and require long policy continuity to lock in structural change. For strategy, the US may gain near-term geopolitical leverage over prices and supply chains, but allies’ mixed responses, persistent renewable cost competitiveness, and deeper US exposure to hydrocarbon regions limit long-term dominance and complicate policy tradeoffs.
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376.
Chatham House argues that Bangladesh’s 12 February 2026 election is a pivotal test of democratic transition after the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina, but it is unfolding in a volatile, reconfigured political arena. The report’s reasoning centers on the ban of the Awami League, BNP’s leadership shift under Tarique Rahman, and the unexpected 11-party Jamaat–NCP alliance, alongside polling that shows a tight BNP–Jamaat contest and a decisive youth electorate. It also highlights mounting instability, including killings of activists, intra-opposition tensions, and a major information-war environment marked by bots, deepfakes, decontextualized religious clips, and cross-border disinformation allegations. The policy implication is that domestic and international actors should prioritize election security, violence prevention, and information-integrity measures while supporting inclusive political competition so institutional legitimacy can survive the transition.
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377.
This report highlights a surge in state-level policy initiatives across India, focusing on healthcare decentralization, industrial specialization, and administrative reform. Key developments include Haryana’s block-level mental health scheme, Kerala’s strategic Graphene Policy, and Maharashtra’s efforts to streamline land conversion and public-private partnerships. These actions suggest that Indian states are increasingly taking the lead in creating tailored regulatory environments to address local needs and foster innovation. Such trends underscore the importance of subnational governance in shaping India's broader economic and social policy landscape.
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378.Even in ‘business-friendly’ states, federal policy shocks are hurting Latino-owned firms (Brookings)
Federal policy volatility—including intensified immigration enforcement, tariff uncertainty, and the retrenchment of public contracting—is disproportionately destabilizing Latino-owned businesses in traditionally "business-friendly" states like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. These firms serve as economic bellwethers because they are concentrated in labor-intensive sectors like construction and services, where policy shocks transmit fastest and financial buffers are thinnest. The report warns that this environment creates a "K-shaped" business landscape where small, place-based firms face quiet attrition while larger, insulated corporations consolidate. Consequently, long-term economic competitiveness in these high-growth regions will depend more on ensuring predictable policy stability than on traditional tax-incentive models.
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379.
Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis argued that Europe is in a transition period requiring both stronger strategic autonomy and continued transatlantic cohesion, rather than a rupture with the United States or NATO. He supported higher European defense burden-sharing, warned that a sustainable Ukraine settlement must be fair and sovereignty-based, and maintained confidence that NATO Article 5 remains credible despite current political volatility. On the Middle East, he backed a UN-anchored Gaza stabilization framework, welcomed coordination with the proposed Board of Peace only within a limited Gaza mandate, and stressed that disarming Hamas must be paired with governance and education to prevent renewed extremism. He also framed Greece as a strategic energy and logistics hub and linked EU trade deals with India and Mercosur to a wider strategy of diversification, implying policymakers should reduce overreliance risks while preserving rules-based multilateral institutions.
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380.
The column argues that Trump’s 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) is built on prioritization and burden-sharing, but the Iran crisis could expose a gap between that framework and the president’s willingness to intervene aggressively. Froman points to NDS language that shifts U.S. focus toward homeland and hemispheric defense, expects allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific to assume more conventional responsibilities, and seeks a limited “decent peace” with China rather than outright dominance. He contrasts that restraint with Trump’s military signaling toward Iran, including carrier redeployment and maximal demands, while warning that Iran is far harder to coerce or reshape than Venezuela and could produce prolonged instability after any regime shock. The strategic implication is that U.S. policy must keep Iran actions tightly bounded to avoid a costly quagmire that would undermine NDS prioritization and broader force posture goals.
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381.Exploring Opportunities For European Rearmament Through Ukraines Experience And Indo Pacific Partnerships (IISS)
The paper argues that Ukraine’s wartime defense-industrial adaptation offers a practical model for European rearmament under prolonged high-intensity conflict conditions. It attributes Ukraine’s resilience to three factors: restructuring domestic defense production, rapidly diversifying and hardening supply chains, and building flexible external industrial partnerships beyond Europe. The analysis highlights the growing strategic relevance of Indo-Pacific actors such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for technology and components, while noting that dependence on China remains both operationally important and geopolitically risky. For European strategy, the report implies that rearmament planning should prioritize industrial agility, supplier diversification, and broader cross-regional defense partnerships to strengthen long-term resilience.
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382.
The article argues that Kenya is moving from a primarily regional leadership role toward a broader, more assertive global foreign policy posture in response to a shifting world order. Its reasoning centers on Kenya’s 2024 strategy, which combines regional integration goals with diversified external partnerships, including longstanding Western security and economic ties, a strategic partnership with China, and expanding links with the UAE. Kenya’s engagement in multilateral security efforts, including the multinational mission in Haiti, is presented as evidence of its willingness to project influence beyond East Africa despite domestic protest pressures and regional conflict risks. Strategically, this suggests Kenya is pursuing pragmatic multi-alignment to maximize diplomatic leverage, trade and financing opportunities, while managing the risks of geopolitical balancing and policy overextension.
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383.
Chatham House’s UK in the World Programme argues that the UK must rethink foreign policy for a more multipolar and less predictable environment, as its traditional relationships with the US and Europe evolve and new actors gain influence. It reasons that the UK can still act effectively as an influential mid-sized power and global broker, but only if external strategy is linked to domestic renewal on growth, regional inequality, and public service capacity. The programme supports this through expert working groups, policy analysis on trade-offs, and public engagement focused on economic security, development, strategic partnerships, and science and technology. The strategic implication is that UK policymakers should pursue a more integrated domestic-foreign policy approach, prioritizing resilient partnerships, economic security, and innovation-led statecraft.
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384.
CFR argues that tariffs have become a central driver of U.S. affordability anxiety across party lines, and that cutting them could improve both household costs and public sentiment. A January 2026 CFR-Morning Consult poll of 2,203 adults found major bipartisan majorities linking trade policy to higher prices in groceries, medical care, technology, clothing, housing, transportation, and childcare. The authors pair polling with tariff and price estimates to show tariffs are adding measurable pressure in key categories, while noting overall prices are also shaped by supply shocks, inventories, and firm pricing behavior. The strategic implication is that tariff relief may be one of the fastest politically visible affordability levers before midterms, even if consumer price declines are partial and delayed.
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385.Cloud Adoption For National Security And Defence Purposes Four Case Studies From The Asia Pacific (IISS)
The IISS paper argues that cloud computing is becoming essential for national-security and defence functions in the Asia-Pacific, and that states can combine commercial cloud benefits with sovereign control. Using case studies of Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, it shows each country adopting hybrid or phased models to handle growing data demands, improve military interoperability, and strengthen decision-making under complex cyber and geopolitical pressure. The analysis highlights that reliance on dominant hyperscalers, especially US providers, creates governance and control trade-offs that governments are managing through tailored technical, legal, and institutional safeguards. Strategically, the paper implies that effective NS&D cloud policy should prioritize secure hybrid architectures, domestic governance capacity, and clear sovereignty mechanisms rather than seeking full digital isolation.
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386.
The panel argues that China under Xi is pursuing a long-term effort to reshape international order around sovereignty, regime security, and reduced Western dominance, while avoiding costly ideological bloc politics. Speakers cite evidence including Beijing’s security-first governance model, parallel institution-building (e.g., BRI, AIIB, SCO, BRICS-adjacent platforms), efforts to de-risk supply chains and build economic leverage, and selective mediation diplomacy aimed especially at the Global South. They also emphasize tensions in China’s approach: it promotes an alternative governance narrative but still works inside existing institutions, and its global ambitions are constrained by domestic economic pressures and external pushback. For policymakers, the implication is to treat China’s strategy as structural and adaptive rather than episodic, requiring coordinated responses on economic resilience, technology dependence, and coalition-based diplomacy rather than issue-by-issue reactions.
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387.
The India AI Impact Summit represents a strategic shift in global AI governance from theoretical safety concerns toward practical deployment, impact, and inclusivity for the Global South. By focusing on "People, Planet, and Progress," the summit aims to move beyond high-level principles to address the "implementation gap" through operational standards and sovereign AI initiatives that reduce technological dependency. Experts argue that long-term success requires establishing durable cross-border accountability frameworks and ensuring emerging economies play a sustained role in technical standard-setting.
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388.
Chatham House argues that a second Trump presidency signals a shift from US hegemony to a more openly imperial foreign policy built on coercive leverage rather than alliance stewardship. It cites transactional diplomacy, disregard for international norms, threats toward allies such as Denmark over Greenland, and the operation to capture Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro as evidence of greater willingness to use force in support of a hemispheric dominance strategy. The analysis says this approach weakens NATO cohesion and broader European security assumptions while creating a more volatile environment in which states inside and outside Washington’s preferred orbit must recalibrate. It also concludes that Russia and China face a mix of risk and opportunity as US policy becomes more confrontational, producing a brittle order with higher miscalculation risk.
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389.
The report argues that the United States must proactively engage Colombia's next administration to support the 2016 Peace Accords and prevent a resurgence of internal conflict. This urgency is driven by incomplete implementation of the peace deal, rising violence against demobilized combatants, and record-high coca production that fuels armed groups like the ELN and Clan del Golfo. Strategic implications include the need for innovative international financing to bridge fiscal gaps and a shift in security cooperation toward stabilizing rural zones to mitigate migration and narcotics flows. Failure to act risks squandering a long-term U.S. foreign policy success and destabilizing the broader Andean region.
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390.
Chatham House frames Trump’s conflict strategy as a deliberate break from traditional diplomacy, centered on his pledge to act as a “peacemaker and unifier” through high-pressure dealmaking. The core logic is transactional: use US leverage to force adversaries into negotiations and lock in outcomes across multiple conflicts, including Ukraine, Gaza, the South Caucasus, and the DRC. The event description highlights mixed and disputed results, arguing that while this approach can create openings, it also unsettles allies and even parts of Trump’s domestic base that see tension with an America First posture. For policymakers, the key implication is that US-led peacemaking may become more coercive and personalized, requiring partners to adapt quickly while planning for uneven sustainability and credibility risks across simultaneous theaters.
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391.
Chatham House argues that US global influence remains substantial but is increasingly perceived as declining, particularly in economic terms, as China, India and Russia gain weight. The analysis points to policy volatility and experimentation across major dossiers, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and relations with the EU, Russia and North Korea. At the same time, persistent transnational challenges such as trade, climate change, nuclear risk and terrorism are presented as areas where US engagement is still indispensable. The strategic implication is that Washington’s credibility will depend less on unilateral dominance and more on consistent, coalition-based leadership in managing shared global risks.
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392.
CFR reports that the U.S. goods trade deficit reached a record in 2025, undermining the Trump administration’s claim that emergency tariffs would shrink it and revive domestic manufacturing. Commerce Department data show tariffs redirected sourcing away from China toward countries such as Vietnam and Mexico rather than reducing overall import dependence, while U.S. manufacturing employment fell by about 72,000 jobs after the April 2025 tariff rollout. The brief notes that long-run investment effects from trade deals could still appear, but current evidence points to limited near-term reindustrialization gains. With a Supreme Court ruling pending, the tariffs could be struck down and trigger up to an estimated $175 billion in refunds, highlighting fiscal and strategic risks in a tariff-first policy mix.
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393.
The article argues that the U.S. must update its narrative on Taiwan, moving away from viewing the island as a 'strategic liability' or a single point of failure for the global economy. It highlights that Taiwan's hardware is the irreplaceable backbone of America's AI ambitions and that conflict with China is not inevitable if a credible military deterrent is maintained. The proposed policy shift emphasizes a middle path: preserving the status quo to allow for an eventual non-coercive resolution while grounding U.S. support in calculated self-interest rather than ideological charity.
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394.
The Trump administration is aggressively expanding Section 232 tariffs across strategic sectors—from semiconductors to pharmaceuticals—to mitigate national security risks and encourage domestic manufacturing. While aimed at countering China, these tariffs disproportionately affect close allies like Canada and Mexico, who remain the primary suppliers of steel, aluminum, and auto parts. This strategy risks trade friction with partners while highlighting persistent vulnerabilities in supply chains, particularly regarding Chinese control of active pharmaceutical ingredients, critical minerals, and drone components.
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395.
Chatham House argues that as the US turns inward and multilateral institutions weaken, the Global South is becoming a central arena of geopolitical and economic competition in which Japan is an increasingly important actor. Evidence came from a January 2026 expert event at Japan House London, where specialists assessed how Global South countries are reacting to great-power rivalry, including China’s expanding role, and compared Japanese, US, and Chinese approaches. The discussion suggests influence will depend less on rhetoric and more on how partner countries in the Global South perceive concrete differences in engagement models. For policy, Japan and like-minded states should design pragmatic, development-focused partnerships aligned with Global South priorities and recognize these countries as active shapers of the emerging global order.
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396.
The event argues that worsening humanitarian crises are being driven less by isolated emergencies and more by a structural geopolitical shift from a rules-based order to transactional power politics. Drawing on the IRC’s 2026 Emergency Watchlist, it highlights severe stress signals: rising conflict, extreme food insecurity, and mass displacement alongside declining aid and weakening international cooperation. A key indicator is concentration of risk, with 20 Watchlist countries accounting for 84% of global humanitarian need despite representing only 12% of the world’s population, increasing spillover pressures beyond their borders. The policy implication is that governments and donors should pair near-term protection of vulnerable communities with reforms that build a more resilient, sustainable humanitarian system under conditions of persistent great-power competition.
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397.
The article argues that the Munich Security Conference is underweighting climate and environmental risks, even though they are structural drivers of instability and should be treated as core security priorities. It points to climate’s reduced visibility in the 2026 MSC agenda and report, parallel downgrading in other fora, and country cases (including Haiti, Yemen, and Myanmar) where degraded livelihoods, water stress, and climate shocks worsened violence and undermined ceasefires. The author’s reasoning is that security analysis, conflict resolution, and peacebuilding fail when they ignore land, water, food, and energy pressures that shape grievances and state legitimacy. Policy-wise, it calls for embedding land restoration, water access, and climate-resilient livelihoods into stabilization and reconstruction, and advancing practical regional cooperation (e.g., EU, OSCE, NATO, AU) where global consensus is weak.
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398.
The discussion argues that oil will remain a central geopolitical risk through the near term, even as countries pursue decarbonization, because global demand is still above 100 million barrels per day and continues to rise. Kissane cites evidence that Russia’s war in Ukraine and OPEC+ production cuts have remapped trade flows, tightened supply, and sustained price volatility, while major buyers such as China and India absorb discounted Russian crude. She also notes that energy power is concentrated in a few producers and state-owned firms, with over 75% of global oil controlled by national companies, amplifying political leverage in markets. The strategic implication is that governments should pair energy-transition goals with hard energy-security planning: diversify suppliers, protect critical transport infrastructure, manage strategic reserves prudently, and avoid removing conventional supply faster than resilient alternatives can scale.
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399.
Chatham House argues that the Trump administration’s critical minerals push is less about outproducing China and more about building a geopolitically selective supply system led by Washington. The article points to the February 4 ministerial, the $12 billion “Project Vault” stockpile plan, and the FORGE platform (with proposed price floors) as evidence of serious US state-backed market shaping tied to alliance politics. It warns that investor confidence depends on long-horizon policy credibility, and that partisan attacks on prior administrations’ mineral programs can signal future policy reversals, raising stranded-asset risk. Strategically, the US should institutionalize these initiatives across agencies and administrations, prioritize trusted partners while expanding real new supply (including copper), and sustain long-term political de-risking in places like the DRC.
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400.The UK critical minerals strategy: Building national resilience through global political and commercial collaboration (Chatham House)
Chatham House’s event framing argues that the UK’s new Critical Minerals Strategy is centered on reducing supply-chain vulnerability while preserving international openness. The core reasoning is that critical minerals are now indispensable to UK manufacturing, clean energy deployment, and industrial competitiveness, but exposure to geopolitical rivalry and demand shocks creates strategic risk. The strategy therefore combines domestic capability-building with deeper political and commercial collaboration with partner countries and industry actors. For policy, this implies a dual-track approach: strengthen national resilience at home while institutionalizing trusted international partnerships to secure long-term access in a contested global minerals market.
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401.
CFR panelists argued that while Greenland is strategically important for Arctic warning, surveillance, and transatlantic security, U.S. ownership is not necessary to secure core defense interests. They cited the still-valid 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense framework, which already allows expanded U.S. basing and operations, and noted that practical constraints—harsh operating conditions, limited infrastructure, and high costs—undercut both military seizure scenarios and rapid resource exploitation. On critical minerals, speakers stressed that Greenland has potential but development cycles are long, financing is market-driven, and cooperation with allies (especially Denmark, Canada, and Europe) is more realistic than unilateral control. Strategically, the discussion suggests Washington should prioritize negotiated security upgrades and allied supply-chain partnerships, since coercive moves on Greenland would risk damaging NATO cohesion and broader U.S.-Europe coordination.
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402.
The article argues that while international climate agreements like the Paris Accord have fostered diplomacy, current national commitments remain insufficient to prevent dangerous global warming, a situation exacerbated by the United States' recent withdrawal from UN climate bodies. Evidence indicates that global temperatures already breached the 1.5°C threshold in 2024, and the U.S. departure from the UNFCCC significantly reduces the organization's funding while signaling a domestic return to fossil fuel prioritization. Consequently, the lack of U.S. participation is expected to delay the global transition to net-zero, forcing a strategic shift toward alternative frameworks like universal carbon pricing and minilateral cooperation through the G20.
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403.Despite reset in India–US relations, New Delhi retains commitment to strategic hedging (Chatham House)
Chatham House argues that the February 6 India-US tariff deal marks only a partial reset, while New Delhi continues its long-standing strategy of hedging rather than aligning fully with Washington. Although US tariffs on India reportedly fell from 50% to 18% in exchange for major Indian purchase commitments and a pledge to stop Russian oil imports, implementation remains ambiguous because Indian state refiners still buy Russian crude and enforcement details are unclear. The article also notes political and economic constraints on both sides, including India’s sensitivity over agriculture, uncertainty over alternative oil supply, and persistent risk that the US could reimpose tariffs. Strategically, India is likely to keep diversifying trade, energy, and defense ties across multiple partners, implying a more transactional India-US relationship with limited US leverage over India’s broader foreign-policy autonomy.
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404.De-Hamasification of the Gaza Strip: Learning from Western and Arab Models of Deradicalization (INSS)
The memorandum argues that rebuilding Gaza after the October 7 war requires more than disarmament and infrastructure repair; it requires a deliberate "de-Hamasification" process to dismantle Hamas’s ideological and institutional dominance. INSS contends that Western deradicalization templates (e.g., postwar Germany and Japan) are poorly suited to Gaza’s current social and political conditions, and instead highlights contemporary Arab "civic-transformative" models as more applicable. Its reasoning emphasizes a combined approach: sustained security demilitarization, Arab-led religious and political legitimization, re-education toward tolerance, and economic rehabilitation tied to a credible political horizon. Strategically, the paper implies that Israel and regional partners should pursue an integrated security-political-religious framework to build a durable post-Hamas governing alternative and reduce long-term instability.
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405.
This collection of essays argues that the United States and China must coordinate to mitigate the 'malicious uplift' of non-state actors using advanced AI for cyberattacks, biological weapons, and disinformation. The authors highlight that AI's low cost and high accessibility create systemic risks that traditional arms control cannot easily manage, necessitating shared safety guidelines and crisis communication channels. Ultimately, bilateral cooperation is viewed as a necessary catalyst for a global multilateral non-proliferation framework to prevent 'safety arbitrage' by malicious groups.
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406.
Robert D. Blackwill proposes "resolute global leadership" as the most effective American grand strategy to counter a peer-competitor China and navigate the most dangerous international environment since World War II. The report analyzes five alternative strategic schools, concluding that the U.S. must leverage its unique economic, military, and technological advantages while reconciling itself to a world where its dominance is no longer unchallenged. Key policy recommendations include substantially increasing the defense budget, pivoting military assets to the Indo-Pacific, and re-engaging in multilateral trade frameworks like the CPTPP to revitalize the rules-based order. Ultimately, it emphasizes balancing Chinese power through strengthened alliances and 'peace through strength,' while rejecting military force for purely ideological goals.
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407.
The Chatham House panel argued that shrinking Western aid budgets are no longer just a development issue but a strategic security risk for the UK and its partners. Speakers cited sharp cuts across major donors, disruption from the 2025 USAID retrenchment, and operational impacts such as HALO Trust potentially shrinking from 12,000 to 7,000 staff, warning this will hit fragile and conflict-affected states hardest. They reasoned that reduced support for conflict prevention, multilateral institutions, and long-term partnerships creates space for rival influence, increases instability and migration pressures, and weakens UK diplomatic leverage. For UK strategy, the discussion pointed to prioritizing conflict-focused aid, preserving credible multilateral engagement while using targeted bilateral strengths, rebuilding a clear long-term narrative linking aid to domestic security, and mobilizing non-traditional and private financing to offset fiscal constraints.
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408.Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21 st century (Brookings)
Brookings’ expert roundtable argues that a U.S. "Donroe Doctrine" push for hemispheric primacy is more likely to weaken than strengthen Washington’s position in long-term competition with China, though one contributor contends it could restore deterrence by denying Beijing footholds near U.S. borders. The dominant reasoning is that coercive regional tactics and unilateral moves drain U.S. military bandwidth from the Indo-Pacific, damage alliances, and erode soft power while giving China narrative and diplomatic advantages. Experts also note China’s already deep regional footprint, including major trade, investment, and infrastructure ties across Latin America, which makes a clean spheres-of-influence rollback unrealistic. Strategically, a formal U.S.-China spheres bargain is assessed as unstable and asymmetric: it could pressure smaller states to hedge, accelerate regional militarization and possible nuclear proliferation, and incentivize revisionist claims elsewhere, suggesting U.S. policy should prioritize alliance credibility, rules-based coordination, and positive economic alternatives over coercion.
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409.
The publication argues that while the transatlantic alliance faces deep rifts due to US political volatility, the commitment to the partnership remains strong. Allies must adapt by adopting a strategy of assertive self-reliance, recognizing that they can no longer solely depend on the United States for security. This requires enhancing mutual burden-sharing and maintaining robust trade ties while simultaneously holding firm on national interests. The path forward demands a strategic shift from passive appeasement to a proactive, mutually beneficial partnership that asserts the sovereignty of all involved parties.
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410.Managing Systemic Supply Chain Risk to the U.S. Economy from Trade Concentration and Geopolitical Conflict: The Roles of Insurance and Other Hedging Strategies (RAND)
This RAND report argues that systemic supply chain risks from geopolitical conflict are significant and underappreciated, particularly in sectors like nonferrous metals and electrical components sourced from countries such as Brazil and India. The authors find that private insurance is ill-suited for managing these correlated, large-scale risks, while government interventions often lack necessary market-sensing mechanisms to prevent unsustainable private practices. To enhance resilience, the report recommends that the U.S. government track conflict-dependency overlaps and that industries adopt 'Til Needed' hedging options—private contracts for surge capacity—to bridge the gap between market incentives and national economic security.
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411.
The article argues that the traditional 'India Model' of sustained growth and stability is facing significant structural stress. Evidence, such as the massive crowds competing for low-level government posts in Odisha, highlights deep systemic issues regarding job scarcity and the reliance on state employment for social prestige and financial security. This intense competition suggests that the economy is failing to generate sufficient high-quality jobs for its massive youth population. Policymakers must therefore anticipate potential social instability and shifts in labor dynamics that could challenge India's long-term development trajectory.
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412.
The article argues that sustained technological progress requires a competitive, decentralized market system, contrasting this with top-down bureaucratic models best suited for scaling existing technologies. Historical examples show that nations like Great Britain and the US thrived through decentralized competition, while centralized systems (like late 19th-century Prussia) excelled at consolidation. Stagnation occurs when a society's political structure fails to adapt to new technological realities. The analysis warns that both China, due to centralized power, and the United States, due to stifled competition, face significant challenges in maintaining future growth.
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413.
The analysis argues that India's historical failure to become a major electronics manufacturing power, despite early successes like the TIFRAC project, was not a scientific deficiency but a structural policy failure. Key evidence points to the state's tendency to support single, flagship projects rather than cultivating a comprehensive industrial ecosystem. This resulted in a weak domestic manufacturing base, forcing reliance on imported components despite advanced scientific talent. The implication for policy is that India's current push for technological self-reliance is likely to face similar hurdles, requiring a shift from project-based support to robust industrial policy development.
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414.
The analysis argues that the American Revolution should be viewed not as a unifying national event, but as a complex, global conflict. Key evidence reveals that the struggle was simultaneously a 'civil war' marked by deep internal divisions—such as between enslavers and the enslaved—and a 'world war' fueled by foreign powers like France and Spain. These external actors provided essential resources and launched global military actions, disrupting international trade patterns. For policy, this suggests that even seemingly localized conflicts are fundamentally interconnected, requiring an understanding of global resource flows and overlooked internal power dynamics to accurately assess geopolitical stability.
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415.The Elimination: A Survivor of the Khmer Rouge Confronts His Past and the Commandant of the Killing Fields (Foreign Affairs)
This account examines the atrocities of the Khmer Rouge, arguing that the horrific violence was driven by individual choices and culpability, rather than merely systemic orders. Using personal narratives, the work details the suffering of victims and confronts perpetrators, such as Comrade Duch, who are shown to have actively chosen their path into becoming agents of violence. The central finding is that accountability must be focused on individual responsibility, emphasizing that perpetrators retained agency and choice even within a brutal regime. For policy, this underscores the critical importance of transitional justice mechanisms and individual criminal prosecution when addressing historical mass atrocities.
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416.
The analysis argues that India's rapid, elite-driven economic growth is undermining democratic foundations by fueling deep economic and social inequalities. This dynamic allows the ruling BJP to consolidate power by simultaneously appealing to economic elites through pro-business policies and mobilizing cultural majoritarianism. While democratic institutions remain nominally intact, the report warns that civil society and the opposition are currently too weak to counter the combined force of concentrated capital and entrenched social hierarchies. This suggests that structural economic imbalances pose a significant long-term risk to India's democratic stability.
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417.
The analysis challenges the notion that BRICS+ operates as a unified geopolitical counterweight to Western powers. Instead, the grouping functions as a highly fragmented forum where member states pursue diverse and often conflicting national interests. Evidence demonstrates this divergence: Russia and China leverage the platform for de-dollarization, while India uses it to press Beijing over border disputes, and nations like Indonesia hedge by engaging with multiple global bodies. Policymakers should therefore view the bloc not as a monolithic force, but as a complex, decentralized collection of rising powers whose collective action is limited by internal divisions and competing agendas.
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418.
The article posits that the international system is at a crossroads, facing a choice between a multipolar world of competing spheres of influence (Yalta logic) or an open, cooperative multilateral order (Helsinki logic). This contest is defined by three major coalitions: the 'Global West' (US, Europe, Japan), the 'Global East' (China, Russia), and the pivotal 'Global South.' The Global South is identified as the decisive factor in determining the future global order. Policymakers are advised that the West must adopt a strategy of 'pragmatic realism,' engaging with both the East and the South to rebuild a rules-based global system centered on the UN.
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419.
The article critiques the long-standing U.S. strategic commitment, known as the 'pivot to Asia,' arguing that the initial premise—that rebalancing resources was the sole way to prevent Chinese dominance—has failed. It traces the bipartisan assumption since 2011 that the U.S. must focus on the Asia-Pacific to counter Beijing's rise. The piece implies that the current strategic framework is insufficient, suggesting that the U.S. must fundamentally reassess its approach to the region. Policy implications suggest a need to move beyond the original 'pivot' narrative to craft a more adaptable and effective long-term strategy.
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420.The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth (Foreign Affairs)
The green energy transition, while necessary for global climate goals, relies heavily on critical minerals like cobalt and lithium extracted from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The article argues that this global shift, driven by technological demand, disproportionately burdens the Congolese people, who bear the human and environmental costs of resource extraction. Geopolitically, the race for these materials creates a complex, often exploitative, supply chain involving global powers, manufacturers, and local miners. Policymakers must address the inherent inequity of the transition, ensuring that the benefits and costs of developing clean energy are shared justly and ethically.
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421.The Range of the River: A Riverine History of Empire Across China, India, and Southeast Asia (Foreign Affairs)
The book argues that major Asian rivers are not merely geographical features but powerful geopolitical agents that have historically driven imperial competition and shaped regional cultures. While these waterways once represented shared resources, modern nation-states, particularly China and India, are increasingly transforming them into instruments of state power. This control is evidenced by the damming of flows and the restriction of navigation, effectively turning once-shared waterways into national borders. Policymakers must recognize this shift, as the weaponization of water resources and the militarization of river basins represent a growing source of regional instability and strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.
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422.
The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates that modern great-power warfare is characterized by sustained, highly destructive conventional conflict and a fragile, elevated risk of nuclear escalation, rather than quick, decisive outcomes. While Russia's nuclear threats are significant, Ukraine's resilience and ability to strike deep into Russian territory show that nuclear weapons do not guarantee coercive leverage. Consequently, the U.S. must update its defense planning to prepare for protracted wars of attrition with nuclear-armed adversaries, focusing on strengthening deterrence, coordinating with allies, and maintaining readiness for extended, high-stakes conflicts.
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423.Export Controls on Artificial Intelligence and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems: Interagency Challenges (RAND)
This RAND report argues that current U.S. export controls for AI and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) are lagging behind rapid technological advancements and require a more agile, data-centric interagency approach. The study finds that the U.S. no longer maintains a technological monopoly, meaning overly restrictive controls risk hollowing out the domestic industrial base and driving global partners toward Chinese alternatives. Consequently, the authors recommend shifting regulatory focus toward specialized military training data rather than ubiquitous hardware, while calling for increased funding and technical expertise for the Bureau of Industry and Security.
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424.
The analysis argues that Hindutva, India's Hindu nationalism, constitutes an indigenous fascist ideology, distinct from European models. Key evidence shows that while its goal is forced assimilation into a homogenized Hindu community rather than mass extermination, it utilizes the caste system as a functional tool of hierarchy and purity, paralleling Nazi racial theories. Policymakers must recognize that this ideology is fundamentally reshaping India's social and political landscape by reframing Hinduism from an ethnicity to a religion. This suggests that external strategic engagement must account for the unique, caste-based mechanisms of Indian nationalism, rather than applying standard Western definitions of fascism.
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425.
Xi Jinping has launched a sweeping purge targeting the highest echelons of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership. The investigation of top officers for "violations of party discipline" signals a profound political restructuring, far exceeding routine anti-corruption efforts. This move centralizes ultimate authority within the PLA directly under Xi's personal control, eliminating potential institutional resistance among the military elite. Strategically, this consolidation of power solidifies Xi's grip on the state apparatus and fundamentally reshapes China's internal power dynamics and military command structure.
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426.
Japan's declaration that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat, potentially warranting a military response, has significantly escalated tensions with Beijing. China responded by implementing immediate countermeasures, including increased military exercises near Japan, halting seafood imports, and banning dual-use goods exports. This escalating confrontation demonstrates that Japan's security posture is directly challenging China's interests, creating a volatile strategic environment. Consequently, the article suggests that Japan cannot manage this complex geopolitical and economic threat independently and must rely heavily on international alliances and partnerships for deterrence and stability.
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427.
Beijing views the current U.S. policy toward China as a moment of strategic flux and opportunity, capitalizing on perceived inconsistency in Washington's approach. China is actively shifting from a reactive to an offensive posture, using economic tools like rare-earth controls and exerting pressure on U.S. allies to strengthen its global standing. Furthermore, the U.S.'s increased focus on the Western Hemisphere and Latin America is interpreted by Beijing as a strategic distraction, allowing China to dedicate greater resources and attention to the Indo-Pacific. Policymakers must recognize that this enduring rivalry persists despite short-term policy shifts, requiring a nuanced strategy that addresses China's proactive regional ambitions.
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428.
The analysis identifies the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan as the most critical flashpoint in South Asia, surpassing the immediate threat posed by India-Pakistan tensions. Pakistan accuses the Taliban regime of harboring militant groups, particularly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which continues to launch cross-border attacks. This persistent, simmering conflict threatens regional stability and has damaging consequences for the wider area. Policymakers must address this cross-border security issue, as the failure to stabilize the Afghan-Pakistani relationship risks escalating regional violence.
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429.
China's economic statecraft is proving highly effective, primarily by capitalizing on the protectionist and volatile foreign economic policies of the United States. Beijing employs a sophisticated 'carrot and stick' strategy, using advanced export controls against rivals while simultaneously offering attractive development financing and cheap goods to the Global South. This dual approach is successfully embedding many developing nations into Chinese-dominated supply chains, as seen in critical sectors like nickel and EVs. Consequently, China gains significant global leverage, enabling it to advance its domestic and foreign policies with minimal international opposition, posing a growing challenge to Western economic influence.
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430.
The article frames the geopolitical landscape as one defined by deep uncertainty regarding Artificial Intelligence. Key debates revolve around whether AI will lead to sudden superintelligence or gradual productivity gains, and whether technological breakthroughs can be easily replicated by rivals. This uncertainty, coupled with the intense focus on the US-China technological race, suggests that the competitive dynamics are highly volatile. Policymakers must therefore prepare for a rapidly evolving and contested technological environment, recognizing that the speed and nature of AI adoption will fundamentally reshape global power structures.
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431.
The article highlights the persistent and escalating threat posed by Beijing, citing a 2021 warning that China aims to control Taiwan by 2027. This prediction, known as the 'Davidson Window,' prompted a significant strategic response from the United States. Consequently, Congress authorized $7.1 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, signaling a major increase in U.S. military commitment to the region. The findings imply that the geopolitical tension surrounding Taiwan requires sustained, high-level defense and strategic investment from key international partners.
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432.
The article argues that the aggressive and unilateral use of tariffs is eroding the foundational sources of American economic power and undermining global trust. Key evidence points to the administration's use of tariffs primarily for revenue generation, which has caused allies to feel unprepared and potentially seek alternative economic partnerships. Strategically, this policy weakens the U.S. global standing by increasing the national debt and making foreign investors wary of holding U.S. Treasury securities. Policymakers must therefore re-evaluate the reliance on tariffs as a primary foreign policy tool to restore allied confidence and ensure long-term economic stability.
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433.
The article analyzes South Korea's strategic position, arguing that despite recent high-level diplomatic efforts to improve ties with China, the nation retains significant autonomy. Evidence points to President Lee Jae-myung's intensive efforts, including a state visit to Beijing and the signing of multiple agreements across trade and climate, demonstrating a commitment to economic cooperation. However, the underlying finding suggests that South Korea's diversified economic base and strategic partnerships allow it to manage its relationship with China without sacrificing its own geopolitical interests. Policymakers should recognize this delicate balance, as South Korea's ability to maintain strategic independence while engaging economically with China is a key factor in regional stability.
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434.
The article argues that the U.S. must fundamentally adjust its strategy to counter China's growing strategic influence and prevent being economically or politically manipulated. Historical attempts, such as conditioning China's 'most favored nation' status on human rights benchmarks, proved ineffective because Beijing was able to ignore the conditions and threaten diplomatic retaliation. The analysis implies that relying solely on trade leverage is insufficient, suggesting that a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach is necessary to effectively constrain China's actions. Policymakers must therefore move beyond simple economic conditions to address the root causes of strategic friction.
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435.
The article argues that the U.S.-India relationship is critically important for future global stability and must be actively maintained. Historically, India maintained a policy of nonalignment and viewed the U.S. with suspicion. However, the geopolitical shift following the Soviet collapse and the rise of China has transformed India into a strategically vital partner. Therefore, the U.S. must deepen its engagement with India to create a robust counterweight to China's growing influence, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region.
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436.
The analysis concludes that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a 'zombie regime' whose ideological and economic foundations are failing, making the current status quo unsustainable. The mounting, nationwide protests are fueled by deep political, economic, and social grievances that transcend traditional ethnic or class divides. Crucially, the regime's core anti-Western ideology is losing legitimacy as the population increasingly prioritizes national reclamation and stability over foreign-directed conflict. Policymakers should anticipate that while the regime may use violence to delay its collapse, the underlying grievances will persist, suggesting a profound and complex transition away from the current theocratic structure.
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437.
The article argues that the framing of AI development as a zero-sum 'race' is misleading, challenging the premise that global AI dominance will yield a single victor. Key evidence suggests that the world's two leading AI powers, the United States and China, are not converging on the same technological or strategic path. Policymakers should therefore abandon the 'race' mentality and instead focus on understanding the divergent development trajectories of major powers. This shift implies that strategic planning must account for distinct, non-parallel AI advancements rather than anticipating a single global finish line.
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438.
The article argues that the post-World War II international order is defunct, replaced by a values-neutral, transactional approach to foreign policy. China is identified as the primary driver of this shift, utilizing a state-capitalist model that pursues quid pro quo arrangements to expand markets and economic reach. This strategy allows Beijing to forge diplomatic ties with both democratic and autocratic states, prioritizing economic gain over universal human rights or political alignment. Policymakers must therefore adapt their strategies, recognizing that traditional, values-based diplomacy is giving way to purely transactional, interest-driven relationships.
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439.
The article argues that characterizing the current US-China relationship solely through Cold War analogies is inaccurate and dangerous, as the global system is fundamentally multipolar and highly integrated economically. Westad notes that unlike the bipolar Cold War era, great powers now compete within a single, interconnected global economic framework. While historical lessons—such as the necessity of dialogue, mutual respect, and strategic deterrence—remain crucial for managing crises, policymakers must acknowledge the unprecedented complexity of this modern, interconnected order. Therefore, strategy must balance great power competition with mechanisms for sustained communication to prevent conflict.
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440.
The article argues that the United States and China are uniquely positioned to forge a 'grand bargain' to stabilize the global order, shifting from ideological confrontation to productive coexistence. This opportunity is driven by the recognition that both nations benefit from a multipolar world and are deeply economically interdependent. To prevent a high-risk conflict, the policy strategy must pivot toward pragmatic cooperation, requiring the reform of the international system. Implementing this bargain necessitates establishing reciprocal agreements on trade, technology, and security to ensure peaceful power sharing and mutual benefit.