The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
As the US steps out of UNESCO, China steps up
English Summary
The article argues that the US withdrawal from international bodies like UNESCO and its shift toward hard power are eroding its global soft power influence, creating a vacuum that China is actively filling. Key evidence includes China's appointment of leaders to global educational roles, its sustained soft power investments via the Belt and Road Initiative, and its decisive domestic expansion of education and AI regulations for minors. The implication is that the US risks ceding global leadership in critical areas like AI governance and educational standards to Beijing. Policymakers are advised that the US must re-engage in global forums and learn from international models to counter this decline in influence.
中文摘要
本文論述美國退出聯合國教科文組織（UNESCO）等國際機構，並轉向依賴硬實力，正在侵蝕其全球軟實力影響力，從而形成一個真空地帶，而中國正在積極填補這一空白。關鍵證據包括中國任命領袖擔任全球教育職位、透過「一帶一路」倡議持續投入軟實力，以及其在國內對未成年人教育和人工智慧（AI）監管的決定性擴張。其意涵是，美國面臨將全球在AI治理和教育標準等關鍵領域的領導權拱手讓給北京的風險。建議政策制定者，美國必須重新參與全球論壇，並學習國際模式，以應對其影響力衰退的趨勢。
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