The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
America Still Has the Upper Hand Over China
English Summary
Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.
中文摘要
儘管近期貿易遭遇挫折，美國在基礎結構性經濟層面仍對中國保持著根本性的槓桿優勢，尤其是在高科技領域和中間商品方面。雖然北京可以暫時將稀土等特定資源武器化，但這些關鍵節點（chokepoints）容易受到西方國家多元化努力的衝擊。本文認為，最有效的策略並非單邊行動，而是美國盟友在亞洲和歐洲發起的協調性多邊壓力。因此，華盛頓必須與其夥伴進行經濟戰略協調，以最大程度地對中國依賴出口的模式造成打擊。
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