The Brookings report argues that closing long-term fiscal deficits cannot be achieved solely by taxing high earners or corporations. Analysis shows that the required savings necessitate broad-based tax increases that would significantly impact middle and lower-income families, as targeted taxes on the wealthy are insufficient. The report notes that high-tax OECD nations achieve high revenues through broad consumption taxes (like VAT) rather than exclusively through highly progressive taxes on the rich. Consequently, any major tax-funded deficit solution would impose a substantial burden on the working class, potentially without the comprehensive social benefits enjoyed by European counterparts.
Brookings
This hub page collects curated ThinkTankWeekly entries for Brookings and links readers back to the publisher for the original reports.
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The US faces an inherent policy tension regarding Chinese clean energy investment: balancing the necessity of Chinese technology to accelerate domestic energy deployment against critical national security risks, such as supply chain over-dependence and data vulnerability. While China provides essential low-cost inputs for reindustrialization, current policies are often a chaotic patchwork of tariffs and screening rules that lack technological specificity. Policymakers must clarify their long-term national objectives—whether pursuing full domestic self-sufficiency or managed partnership—and adopt nuanced, technology-specific strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach to mitigate risks effectively.
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The 2026 Brookings survey indicates that Fed watchers generally rate current communications highly, finding the chair's post-meeting press conference to be the most useful communication channel. While most respondents support maintaining the current 'ample reserves' framework and view the balance sheet size as stable, the most critical finding is the perceived threat to the Fed's independence. For incoming leadership, the primary strategic challenge is maintaining monetary policy autonomy from political interference, which 75% of respondents rate as a significant threat. Policymakers should therefore prioritize clear, consistent, and highly independent communication to sustain market credibility and policy effectiveness.
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The Brookings analysis posits that President Sheinbaum's ability to navigate Mexico's future hinges on her handling of complex bilateral and domestic pressures. Key challenges include intense anti-crime demands and potential military intervention from the United States, alongside domestic political fractures and the impending review of the USMCA trade agreement. The administration's success in managing these security and economic dynamics is critical, as the outcome will have profound consequences for the geopolitical and economic stability of North America.
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The article argues that the 2026 primary season serves as a critical barometer for internal party cohesion, determining the political landscape for the 2028 presidential cycle. Key evidence highlights the Republican struggle between the MAGA wing and traditional conservatives, testing the limits of Trump's influence in various state primaries. Simultaneously, the Democratic party is grappling with tensions between its moderate and progressive factions, as seen in recent special and state elections. Ultimately, the success or failure of these intraparty battles will dictate the platforms and candidates that enter the general election, signaling whether the parties can unify or if deep divisions will jeopardize their electoral viability.
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AI technologies are increasingly entering the critical developmental period of birth to age three, raising concerns about the potential impact on foundational human connections. The core argument is that protecting secure attachment and essential back-and-forth human communication remains paramount for lifelong well-being. Experts emphasize that while AI offers opportunities, the focus must be on mitigating risks that could diminish the quality of human relationships in early life. Consequently, the discussion stresses the urgent need for establishing robust policy guardrails and design principles to ensure that human interaction remains central, guiding policymakers, educators, and caregivers in this complex technological era.
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The Brookings analysis argues that the US and China can cooperate on mitigating shared AI risks—specifically those posed by nonstate actors—without compromising their intense technological competition. This cooperation should focus on practical measures, including establishing nonbinding safety guidelines, sharing limited threat intelligence, and creating an emergency communication hotline. Strategically, the US must leverage this dialogue to assert its leadership in global AI governance, preventing China from defining the standards. Failure to coordinate risks could lead to an AI arms race, while the US must also guard against China attempting to establish a 'floor' on American technology controls.
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Latino entrepreneurs are identified as a dynamic and indispensable engine of US economic growth, contributing billions in revenue and supporting millions of jobs. Evidence highlights their substantial economic output, demonstrating their critical role in regional and national stability. However, the current environment is marked by federal policy volatility and uncertainty, posing risks to these labor-intensive, place-based businesses. Therefore, the analysis stresses the need for a forward-looking policy framework that prioritizes resilience, predictability, and improved capital access to sustain the momentum of Latino-owned firms.
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The conflict involving Iran poses a critical energy security threat due to its potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global choke point for oil and LNG. The primary finding is that even temporary closures or blockades cause massive price volatility, with recovery being a slow, multi-year process due to complex logistics and damaged infrastructure. Economically, this translates to immediate and sustained cost-of-living increases for consumers, impacting household budgets and the price of goods like food. Policymakers must prioritize energy diversification and build resilience against geopolitical shocks to mitigate the severe economic fallout.
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The Brookings article argues that Donald Trump's ambiguous comments regarding Taiwan—specifically suggesting that U.S. security support is negotiable leverage with China—dangerously undermine decades of established U.S. deterrence policy. By implying that Taiwan must 'cool down' and questioning the necessity of military intervention, Trump signals to Beijing that America's commitment is conditional. This shift from resolute deterrence to dealmaking will not reduce, but rather intensify, Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Therefore, the U.S. must maintain a consistent, unwavering focus on upholding stability in the Taiwan Strait and resist using Taiwan's security status as a bargaining chip with Beijing.
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The Brookings article analyzes alternative inflation metrics, such as the trimmed mean and median, which proponents argue are superior to traditional core indices because they statistically filter out extreme price outliers (noise). These methods remove the most volatile price changes from the distribution, aiming to provide a cleaner, more accurate measure of underlying inflation and economic slack. While these metrics are useful for identifying long-term trends, the analysis cautions that they can systematically understate inflation during periods of large, one-time shocks (e.g., tariffs or energy crises). Policymakers must be aware that relying solely on these filtered metrics could lead to misjudgments of the true inflationary trajectory, potentially impacting monetary policy decisions.
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States across the Americas are recognizing that the traditional link between high Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and economic growth is fracturing, leading to a policy shift toward mitigation. Key evidence shows that excessive driving generates negative externalities, including increased pollution, higher maintenance costs, and unsustainable GHG emissions. Consequently, states are passing varied laws—ranging from project-level mandates (California) to statewide planning constraints (Colorado)—to force transportation planning to prioritize VMT reduction. The implication for policy is that future infrastructure investment must move beyond simply building more roads, instead requiring comprehensive, multimodal strategies that redirect funds toward public transit, cycling, and pedestrian infrastructure to achieve sustainable growth.
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The Brookings report, "Changing Legislative Norms in an Era of Conflict," argues that traditional norms of courtesy and reciprocity within Congress are significantly declining due to increased partisan polarization. Evidence suggests a shift towards more confrontational tactics and a reduced willingness to compromise, driven by factors like social media and heightened ideological divisions. This erosion of established legislative practices threatens Congressional effectiveness and potentially destabilizes democratic processes. Policymakers should anticipate continued gridlock and consider strategies to foster greater bipartisan dialogue and institutional reform.
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Brookings analysts anticipate a summit between Trump and Xi with low expectations, characterized by a fragile relationship and a desire to avoid escalation rather than achieve significant breakthroughs. While both leaders seek to maintain a trade truce and avoid conflict, risks remain, particularly concerning tariff restorations and potential shifts in U.S. policy on Taiwan. The meeting's significance lies in its role as a crucial communication channel to prevent miscalculation, and there's a potential for discussions on AI safety and cooperation, though deeper issues like talent competition and fentanyl remain unresolved.
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The conflict in Iran presents a mixed strategic picture for Beijing, offering diplomatic opportunities by allowing China to position itself as a neutral mediator and distracting the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific. However, these gains are offset by significant economic instability, energy market volatility, and the exposure of China's limited operational reach in the region. Strategically, Beijing's primary concern remains maintaining stability with the U.S. to ensure its continued rise, leading it to prioritize de-escalation over deep regional involvement. Ultimately, China must navigate the tension between asserting regional influence and mitigating the severe economic risks posed by disrupted global supply chains.
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The anticipated Trump-Xi summit is expected to center on extending the existing trade truce, with the U.S. seeking large-scale Chinese purchases of goods and China aiming to preserve access to U.S. technology. Beyond trade, Beijing will subtly press for rhetorical concessions on Taiwan and the adoption of a 'mutual respect' framework, signaling an implicit acceptance of China's core interests. The outcome is highly significant, as it will define the U.S.-China relationship trajectory, determining whether the relationship settles into stable, managed cooperation or escalates into deeper strategic tension across global issues like AI and the Middle East.
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17.As border enforcement expands, ‘colonia’ communities are left without basic infrastructure (Brookings)
Despite massive federal spending on border enforcement and surveillance, unincorporated 'colonia' communities along the U.S.-Mexico border are being left without basic infrastructure, including safe water, roads, and drainage. The report argues that this neglect is not accidental but is a direct consequence of fragmented governance and policy frameworks that prioritize security spending over civil infrastructure investment. Colonias, which are deeply embedded in rapidly growing economic regions, suffer from persistent poverty and limited services due to jurisdictional gaps and misaligned federal funding. Policy must therefore shift to integrate comprehensive civil infrastructure investment into border development strategies to address deep-seated socioeconomic inequality and support the region's growing population.
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This Brookings report, based on a discussion with Senators Shaheen and Tillis, argues that the United States needs to proactively strengthen its domestic capabilities and refine its statecraft to maintain a strategic advantage over China. The core reasoning centers on the perceived risk of the U.S. falling behind China in critical areas like technology and military power, necessitating a renewed focus on bolstering U.S. foundations and strategic tools. Policy recommendations will likely prioritize investments in domestic innovation and a more assertive approach to international relations. Consequently, the U.S. should pursue a multi-faceted strategy encompassing both strengthening its internal power and actively shaping the geopolitical landscape.
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The Brookings report examines the evolving landscape of state financial aid for higher education, finding that state grants are increasingly crucial to supplementing federal Pell Grants, particularly due to the erosion of Pell’s purchasing power. Approximately one-fifth of college students receive state aid, with significant variation in state spending patterns – some states allocate over $3,000 per student, while others spend considerably less. The report highlights the diverse approaches states take, including lottery revenue utilization and varying degrees of merit-based versus need-based aid programs, emphasizing the importance of strategic design choices for maximizing student outcomes. Ultimately, the analysis underscores the need for ongoing research and policy adjustments to ensure equitable access to college education.
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This Brookings analysis examines the policy implications of colleges offering financial aid to students without financial need, a practice driven by revenue generation and exacerbated by structural pressures within higher education. The core finding is that increased price transparency is crucial to correcting misperceptions and empowering students to make informed decisions, though it doesn't address the root cause of rising costs. Key evidence highlights the ‘Baumol’s cost disease,’ where the service-oriented nature of higher education leads to persistent cost increases despite productivity stagnation, alongside demand-side pressures for amenities and enrollment of higher-income students. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that public policy should focus on providing sufficient funding for higher education, particularly at public institutions, to mitigate these structural financial constraints.
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Analysis of U.S. healthcare spending reveals a substantial slowdown in growth between 2010 and 2024, driven primarily by technological advances and shifts from expensive inpatient to more cost-effective outpatient care. While this trend indicates increased productivity and improved health outcomes, the report cautions that some savings are linked to high-deductible plans, which may compromise necessary care. Policymakers should therefore shift focus from simply controlling spending to maximizing value, aiming to achieve better health outcomes while decreasing the overall share of health spending relative to GDP.
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22.Beyond ‘clean’ versus ‘cheap’: The energy and growth strategy that states and regions are missing (Brookings)
The article argues that states are failing to capitalize on the energy transition by adopting a false dichotomy between 'clean' or 'cheap' energy. The core finding is that energy must be viewed not merely as a commodity cost, but as a strategic lever for industrial and economic transformation. This shift is underpinned by technological evidence, including the exponential cost declines of renewables and the rise of distributed energy resources (DERs). Policy implications suggest that the most critical resource is demand-side flexibility and efficiency, which offers a cheaper and faster path to capacity than building new centralized infrastructure. Therefore, states must adopt a new operating model that co-evolves economic development with the energy system by rewarding efficiency as a core industrial resource.
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Connected cars represent a major technological shift, offering enhanced convenience and safety through advanced AI and digital interfaces. However, this deep integration creates significant governance challenges, particularly concerning data privacy, system security, and accountability. Policy must navigate the tension between rapid technological innovation and the need for robust regulatory frameworks. Key discussions will focus on developing resilient infrastructure while establishing clear rules for data ownership and cybersecurity to protect both consumers and the broader economy.
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The article argues that geopolitical instability in the Middle East is causing significant economic stress in the U.S. due to soaring gasoline prices, which disproportionately burden lower-income and rural households. Because American life is heavily car-dependent and demand for gasoline is relatively price inelastic, consumers have few immediate alternatives to driving, regardless of cost. While short-term policy fixes are impossible, the crisis underscores the urgent need for long-term reforms, including stricter fuel economy standards and better urban planning to reduce reliance on private vehicles. Strategically, the authors predict that elevated gas prices will become a major political flashpoint in upcoming elections, potentially destabilizing incumbents across various levels of government.
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The US and China are pursuing divergent AI strategies: the US focuses on maintaining a lead through massive capital expenditure and frontier model performance, while China is adapting to U.S. export controls by prioritizing efficiency, adoption, and physical integration. Key evidence shows China compensating for limited compute resources by heavily utilizing techniques like Mixture-of-Experts and quantization, coupled with an open-source model strategy that is gaining global developer popularity. This shift implies that the AI competition is evolving from a pure compute race to a multi-front battle focused on cost-effective deployment, open-source ecosystem building, and leveraging existing industrial supply chains for embodied AI.
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The analysis concludes that despite ongoing high-level purges, China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a massive, deliberate, and highly successful modernization effort, making it a formidable military force. Key evidence points to the PLA's exponential growth in budget and capabilities—including missile, cyber, and maritime assets—and the purges themselves are viewed as Xi Jinping's serious effort to ensure the military's absolute loyalty to the Party and to him. Strategically, this indicates that China is building a force capable of presenting challenges to the U.S. military that have not been seen since World War II, necessitating a serious reassessment of US Indo-Pacific military policy.
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The Brookings report argues that deep energy system integration across the EU and with neighboring states is essential for navigating the energy trilemma—balancing security, affordability, and sustainability. This integration enhances security by allowing cross-border transfers to buffer supply shocks, while it boosts sustainability and affordability by optimizing the management of intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar. To realize these benefits, policymakers must undertake massive investments in cross-border infrastructure and, critically, address the political and social challenges of cost allocation and loss of local control. Ultimately, sustained political will is required to overcome these hurdles, transforming a more integrated energy system into a core driver of European growth and strategic autonomy.
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The Brookings Institution argues that given the pervasive and unavoidable nature of generative AI in youth life, parental guidance is critical for mitigating risks and maximizing educational potential. Research highlights that high usage rates among teens, coupled with parents' lack of support and understanding, necessitates immediate intervention. The core finding is that building resilience requires actively strengthening skills—such as critical thinking and active engagement—that AI might undermine. Policy implications suggest that educational and public health initiatives must focus on equipping parents and caregivers with practical AI literacy tools and structured guidance, rather than simply regulating technology use.
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The Supreme Court's recent ruling significantly weakens the enforcement of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) by limiting the federal government's ability to mandate the creation of majority-minority districts. This legal shift provides states with greater latitude to redraw electoral maps, potentially diminishing the structural protections for minority voters and favoring Republican redistricting efforts. However, the analysis cautions that while the decision provides a structural advantage to Republicans, the ultimate electoral impact remains complex. The success of gerrymandering efforts could be undermined by broader political trends or voter dissatisfaction, suggesting that the 2026 midterm outcome is not as straightforward as the legal ruling suggests.
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Prediction markets, which operate as sophisticated financial instruments rather than simple gambling platforms, are facing intense scrutiny due to instances of misuse, including military personnel wagering on combat and politicians betting on election outcomes. This has sparked a debate over whether the markets are fundamentally fair or prone to manipulation, necessitating regulatory intervention. Policymakers must therefore balance the technological innovation and potential of these markets against the urgent need for robust regulatory frameworks to prevent abuse and ensure market integrity.
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The Brookings report argues that the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which generates billions in profits, has drifted from its original mission and is now primarily serving large financial institutions, exacerbating the severe structural housing deficit in the United States. Evidence shows that while the U.S. faces a shortage of millions of affordable units, the FHLBs' profits are disproportionately paid out as dividends rather than directed toward housing development. The policy implication is a mandate to reform the FHLBs, requiring a significant portion of their profits to fund direct, below-market construction loans for multi-family residential housing, thereby stabilizing the market and providing cheap, abundant finance without new taxpayer costs.
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Beijing's latest Five-Year Plan signals a major strategic pivot, shifting China's economic focus away from general growth and low-end manufacturing toward mastering high-tech industries. The plan establishes technology and innovation—including AI, semiconductors, and robotics—as the primary, subordinating driver of future development. This document functions as a powerful national signaling mechanism, guiding state-owned enterprises and local governments to align with these technological priorities. Policymakers must recognize this aggressive push for self-reliance, as it mandates a strategic re-evaluation of engagement models across global supply chains and industrial policy.
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The Brookings analysis finds that while Virginia may represent the final major mid-decade redistricting battle, the struggle for political control remains highly volatile and legally complex. Key uncertainty stems from ongoing state-level map drawing efforts and, more critically, the Supreme Court case *Louisiana v. Callais*, which could dismantle sections of the Voting Rights Act and dramatically shift congressional power. The implication is that the US political landscape is highly unstable, suggesting that the combination of thin congressional margins and potential voting rights erosion could usher in a new, contentious era of continuous redistricting battles.
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The analysis concludes that while an indefinite ceasefire has temporarily paused hostilities, a lasting resolution to the Iran conflict is highly improbable due to fundamental, irreconcilable differences between the US and the Iranian regime. Key sticking points include the Iranian control over the vital Strait of Hormuz and the regime's insistence on its nuclear enrichment capabilities, which the US demands be curtailed by a lengthy moratorium. Consequently, the conflict remains strategically volatile; if diplomatic negotiations fail to bridge these deep divides, the region is likely to revert to an active military phase, maintaining significant geopolitical risk.
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35.A voluntary export fee (VEF) on pollution: Recovering foreign tax revenue to support US clean manufacturing (Brookings)
The article analyzes the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and proposes a Voluntary Export Fee (VEF) as a strategic U.S. response. The VEF would allow U.S. exporters to pay a voluntary domestic carbon fee, which would then qualify for a credit against the CBAM liabilities levied by the EU. This mechanism redirects projected EU revenue (estimated at up to $400 million annually) back to the U.S. government, providing a politically feasible alternative to a mandatory domestic carbon tax. Implementing the VEF would enable the U.S. to align its trade policy with global decarbonization efforts while simultaneously generating dedicated funds for domestic clean manufacturing and infrastructure.
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The proliferation of AI technologies is rapidly entering the formative years of childhood, necessitating an urgent reassessment of early development practices. Experts are convening to analyze the potential risks associated with AI-enabled tools, emphasizing the need to protect core human developmental aspects like play, relationships, and natural interaction. The central finding is that while AI offers powerful learning tools, its integration must be managed to ensure it supports, rather than undermines, healthy foundational development. Policy recommendations must therefore focus on providing comprehensive guidance for parents and caregivers, establishing guardrails, and preserving the fundamentally human elements of early childhood.
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37.An immigration slowdown led to widespread declines in population growth in America’s major metro areas (Brookings)
The Brookings analysis finds that widespread declines in international immigration are causing significant demographic slowdowns and population losses across nearly all of America’s major metro areas. Evidence shows that since major metro areas rely heavily on net international migration for growth, recent sharp drops in immigrant numbers—affecting all 56 major metros—are the primary driver behind reduced population gains or outright declines. If current immigration trends persist, these urban cores must prepare for severe demographic slowdowns, which will inevitably lead to further workforce contraction and economic stagnation. Policymakers must therefore address immigration policy to stabilize the population base and maintain the economic vitality of the nation's largest urban centers.
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Facing global market shocks triggered by vulnerabilities in critical mineral and energy mega chokepoints, Japan is initiating a comprehensive economic security reset. This strategic pivot is driven by geopolitical risks, such as potential disruptions in rare earth supplies or energy flows through key straits. To buttress national resilience, the Takaichi administration plans to update its security legislation, establish a new national intelligence agency, and integrate defense promotion into its industrial policy. These measures signal a heightened focus on strategic autonomy and deepening economic security cooperation with allied nations, particularly the United States.
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The Brookings article argues that any temporary nuclear deal with Iran is fundamentally flawed and dangerous. The core reasoning is that such agreements imply that the Iranian regime's moderation is predictable, which is an unreliable hope, and they undermine the permanent, global nature of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Furthermore, temporary limits send dangerous signals to both Iranian hardliners and regional rivals, suggesting that a nuclear option is permissible. Policy should therefore reject time-bound limitations, focusing instead on establishing permanent compliance mechanisms and robust international monitoring to manage the nuclear program.
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The article argues that the US withdrawal from international bodies like UNESCO and its shift toward hard power are eroding its global soft power influence, creating a vacuum that China is actively filling. Key evidence includes China's appointment of leaders to global educational roles, its sustained soft power investments via the Belt and Road Initiative, and its decisive domestic expansion of education and AI regulations for minors. The implication is that the US risks ceding global leadership in critical areas like AI governance and educational standards to Beijing. Policymakers are advised that the US must re-engage in global forums and learn from international models to counter this decline in influence.
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Special elections serve as reliable indicators of midterm trends, suggesting a favorable political momentum for Democrats. Evidence shows that Democrats have significantly outperformed Republicans in recent special elections and off-year contests, a trend attributed to declining presidential approval ratings and voter frustration over high prices. Strategically, this suggests a strong midterm outlook for the Democratic party. However, the analysis warns that the combination of a negative campaign environment and the difficulty of motivating the Republican base without the former president could lead to an exceptionally negative and volatile election cycle for both parties.
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The unusually high number of House members announcing retirement signals deep institutional frustration with Congress, suggesting the decline of federal service's appeal beyond mere midterm election anxiety. Key evidence includes 56 retirements, predominantly from Republicans, who cite factors like gridlock and a "toxic partisan atmosphere" as reasons for leaving. Furthermore, many retirees are bypassing traditional federal paths to seek state or local offices, indicating a shift in legislative focus. Strategically, this suggests a potential period of institutional instability and a significant influx of new, potentially less experienced members into Congress next year.
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The Brookings report argues that climate change risks are destabilizing the homeowners insurance market, posing a massive threat to housing affordability and wealth retention across the U.S. The instability disproportionately impacts low-income and minority communities—specifically Black, Latino, and Hispanic residents—who possess lower 'adaptive capacity.' This vulnerability is evidenced by the correlation between high climate risk, low wealth, and increased exposure to nonrenewal rates and rising premiums. The analysis concludes that without proactive federal policy intervention to reduce climate risks and bolster community resilience, the insurance crisis will significantly widen existing wealth divides and entrench racial gaps in homeownership.
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North Korea's regime stability is maintained through a complex blend of authoritarian internal control, dynastic ideology, and strategic geopolitical alignment. The Kim dynasty has successfully leveraged this model across generations by deepening ties with major external powers, including Russia, China, and Iran, to navigate a shifting global order. Analysis of the regime's evolving ideology and domestic policy drivers is critical for understanding its current trajectory. Ultimately, tracking these internal and external pressures is key to predicting regional instability and the challenges associated with potential future leadership transitions.
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The Brookings report argues that climate action's appeal to everyday Americans has flatlined because advocates have failed to connect the issue with the immediate economic concerns of the working and middle classes. To rebuild political consensus, policymakers must reframe climate action away from an 'elitist concern' and position it instead as a powerful solution for increasing affordability and economic mobility. The analysis suggests that current policies often focus too much on private benefits, missing the opportunity to address tangible, localized needs. Therefore, the strategy must involve scaling up community-level programs—such as low-income retrofitting or flood mitigation—that provide clear, immediate benefits (e.g., reduced utility bills or insurance premiums) across all economic and geographic spectra.
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46.Generation AI starts early: A guide to technologies already shaping young children’s lives (Brookings)
Generative AI is already deeply embedded in the daily lives of young children (birth to 8 years), often operating invisibly through products like smart monitors, educational apps, and algorithmic content curation. The core finding is that these technologies collect vast amounts of data without the child's knowledge or consent, and the market is advancing significantly faster than scientific research. Policy implications are urgent, requiring policymakers to establish strong guardrails, including stricter data collection limits, mandatory age-appropriate design standards, and guidelines to protect children's privacy and healthy socio-emotional development.
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47.Financial aid for students without financial need: How do institutions use it strategically? (Brookings)
Colleges are employing sophisticated pricing strategies, utilizing 'price discrimination' by setting high sticker prices while offering targeted merit aid discounts to higher-income students. This approach allows institutions to generate necessary revenue to cover rising operational costs and declining public funding. However, this reliance on discounting is creating a potential 'race to the bottom' in pricing, which erodes institutional revenue gains. The primary policy implication is that the increasing financial strain on colleges threatens the stability of need-based aid, potentially limiting access for lower- and middle-income students.
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The Brookings panel argues that while Chinese investment in clean energy presents layered strategic risks, a blanket restriction is unnecessary. Key concerns include China's overwhelming dominance in critical clean energy supply chains and minerals, which creates significant economic dependency. While hard security risks may necessitate decoupling in critical technologies, other risks can be managed by implementing dual-sourced supply chains for components. Policy should therefore adopt a nuanced, risk-based approach, allowing partnerships where U.S. benefits and climate goals outweigh the identified dangers.
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Rising electricity costs are emerging as a dominant and bipartisan political issue that will define the 2026 midterms. The primary evidence centers on significant increases in electric rates, which are increasingly linked by the public and politicians to the energy demands of large data centers and tech infrastructure. Strategically, candidates are leveraging public concern over this 'techlash' by proposing tough legislative remedies, such as moratoriums on data centers or implementing 'large load' tariffs. This suggests that political success will hinge on candidates moving beyond general 'affordability' rhetoric and presenting specific, targeted plans to address energy costs and the role of the digital economy.
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50.America’s Rural Future: Mississippi Delta site visits underscore trusted local leadership, access to capital, and institutional innovation and capacity as critical to rural development (Brookings)
The Brookings Commission argues that while rural communities, exemplified by the Mississippi Delta, possess strong local leadership and resilience, their development is critically constrained by structural barriers and long-term federal disinvestment. Evidence shows that local success is driven by trusted, community-based institutions and local ingenuity, which successfully bridge gaps left by fragmented and overly complex federal funding programs. Policymakers must therefore shift away from standardized, one-size-fits-all federal models toward flexible, localized strategies that simplify access to capital, provide technical assistance, and empower community-led institutions.
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AI adoption is a bipartisan priority within the federal government, showing significant growth in reported use cases across various agencies. However, the report finds that adoption remains uneven, heavily concentrated in large agencies, and is significantly constrained by structural bottlenecks. Key challenges include workforce capacity limitations, a risk-averse culture, and systemic issues in procurement and funding. To accelerate responsible deployment, policy must focus on expanding technical talent and AI literacy, streamlining outdated acquisition processes, and enhancing transparency to build public trust in high-impact AI systems.
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The Brookings analysis argues that generative AI has become a critical weapon of war, enabling state actors like Iran to wage sophisticated information warfare during military conflicts. Key evidence shows that Iran uses AI-generated deepfakes and fabricated footage to project false military strength, sow chaos, and undermine public support for U.S. and Israeli objectives. Strategically, this poses a severe challenge because AI makes disinformation cheaper and more compelling, overwhelming traditional content moderation efforts. Policymakers must therefore develop robust strategies to counter this complex, multi-layered information warfare, recognizing that the difficulty of discerning truth from deepfakes will persist.
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A new Brookings report argues that intensified federal immigration enforcement, particularly actions by ICE, is eroding the American Dream for immigrant communities by chilling civic engagement and creating a perception that upward mobility is unattainable. The report highlights that restrictive policies like potential photo-ID laws disproportionately impact naturalized citizens and that recent deportations of DREAMers further undermine the promise of opportunity. This shift in perception, particularly among Latino immigrants, is impacting their optimism and participation in the democratic process, with a majority believing the American Dream has become harder to achieve.
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Brookings' analysis suggests that President Trump's overly harsh immigration policies, intended to be a political asset, have backfired, alienating key demographics like Latinos and creating widespread public disapproval. This shift in public sentiment, coupled with the potential for electoral losses for both parties, could create an opening for bipartisan negotiations and a comprehensive immigration reform solution that was previously unattainable due to political polarization. The article highlights a historical pattern of backlash against immigration surges leading to policy shifts, suggesting a potential turning point in the debate.
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Brookings has launched the "IRS Spotlight," a new resource providing accessible data and analysis on federal tax administration, addressing concerns about declining IRS performance and data accessibility. The Spotlight compiles data from various sources, including the IRS, Treasury Inspector General, and Taxpayer Advocate, highlighting issues like workforce reductions, leadership turnover, and data transparency challenges. This initiative aims to ensure continued public access to vital information about the IRS, particularly given recent data removal from official websites. The Spotlight's existence underscores the need for independent oversight and transparency regarding IRS operations and performance.
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A Brookings paper analyzes the economic impact of significant tariff increases in 2025, finding a small net effect on the US economy (between -0.13% and +0.1% of GDP). While tariff revenue surged and benefited US producers, the costs were largely passed on to importers. The study also notes accelerated decoupling of trade with China, a rise in the US goods trade deficit, and a slight decline in manufacturing jobs, alongside tariffs applied unevenly to allies. Future tariff policy remains uncertain, but is expected to continue as an active tool of US international policy.
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A new Brookings analysis challenges the long-held belief that the 1993 Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) expansion was the primary driver of employment gains among single mothers in the 1990s. The research finds that changes in welfare reform policies, specifically caseload reduction pressures, were the more significant factor, pushing families into work rather than incentivizing it through earnings subsidies. This re-evaluation has important implications for current debates surrounding work requirements for social safety net programs like the Child Tax Credit, suggesting policymakers may be overestimating the benefits of solely relying on earnings-based incentives.
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A new Brookings analysis reveals that the energy shocks stemming from the Iran conflict are more severe than initially anticipated, exceeding the scale of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises. While the Strait of Hormuz isn't physically blocked, Iranian actions are disrupting shipping and targeting energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, leading to significant supply shortages and driving up prices, particularly in Asia. The analysis highlights concerns about potential recession and inflation, and warns that the global energy system will be fundamentally altered, with limited spare capacity and a diminished role for Saudi Arabia as a reliable supplier.
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A recent change to the USPS Domestic Mail Manual clarifies that postmarks no longer reliably indicate when mail was deposited, due to network consolidation under the Delivering for America plan. This shift, while intended to improve USPS financial stability and efficiency through regional processing centers and standardized transportation, disrupts legal and administrative systems that rely on postmarks for deadlines in areas like elections and tax filings. The report highlights disproportionate impacts on rural communities where mail travels longer distances to processing hubs, creating a disconnect between mailing date and postmark date.
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A new Brookings Institution initiative, the Economic Indicators Initiative (EII), highlights critical risks facing U.S. government statistical agencies. These agencies, responsible for vital economic data used in everything from Social Security payments to Federal Reserve policy, are facing challenges including underfunding, staff reductions, declining response rates, and political interference. The EII emphasizes the need to protect the integrity and public perception of these statistics to ensure informed decision-making and proposes innovations like leveraging alternative data sources and enhancing transparency to rebuild trust and improve data quality.
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According to Brookings' "The Beijing Brief" podcast, the delayed Trump-Xi summit likely stems from a combination of factors, including the Iran conflict and Trump's desire for China's assistance in the Strait of Hormuz. While both Washington and Beijing publicly downplay the delay as a logistical issue, Chinese officials were likely frustrated by the lack of substantive preparation and the unorthodox nature of the postponement. Ultimately, Beijing may view the delay as advantageous, granting them more time and leverage in the relationship, particularly given China's perception of U.S. economic vulnerabilities.
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62.
A significant reduction in IRS staff and leadership has severely hampered its operations, leading to longer wait times, delayed refunds, and increased vulnerability to fraud for taxpayers. The diminished IRS capacity also poses a long-term risk of reduced tax enforcement, potentially costing the government billions and exacerbating wealth inequality. Furthermore, there are concerning signs of politically motivated misuse of the IRS for targeting individuals and institutions, threatening democratic principles and taxpayer privacy.
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63.
A new Brookings report highlights that the impact of AI on the labor market extends beyond individual job losses, significantly reshaping career pathways – the sequences of jobs that enable economic mobility, particularly for workers without four-year degrees (“STARs”). The analysis reveals that AI exposure is concentrated in key “Gateway” occupations that traditionally provide stepping stones to higher-wage jobs, potentially disrupting these pathways and hindering worker advancement. Policymakers and regional leaders need to focus on maintaining and strengthening these local pathways to ensure continued economic mobility and talent development, requiring coordinated action and a focus on how AI is deployed and adopted.
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64.
This Brookings publication argues that global cooperation is essential to address shared challenges like climate change and infrastructure gaps, particularly in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. It highlights the crucial role of development finance institutions, specifically the European Investment Bank (EIB), in mobilizing capital and advancing shared priorities. The analysis emphasizes the EIB's potential to drive investment in climate, infrastructure, and sustainable development. Ultimately, the report suggests strengthening multilateral institutions and fostering international partnerships to navigate current global complexities.
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65.
A new Brookings report finds that the U.S. is experiencing negative net migration for the first time in decades due to restrictive policies, posing significant risks to the economy and social security systems. The report highlights that immigrants contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, generating a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion between 1994 and 2023 and boosting GDP growth. Ultimately, the analysis argues for Congressional action to reform immigration policy and uphold the rule of law to mitigate negative economic and societal consequences.
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66.Rebalancing world order in an age of fragmentation: A conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb (Brookings)
The Brookings conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that the current world order is fragmenting, requiring a renewed focus on transatlantic cooperation and bolstering societal resilience. Stubb, drawing on Finland's recent NATO accession and experiences navigating Russian aggression, emphasizes the importance of collective defense, strategic autonomy, and adaptable governance structures. He suggests that democracies must actively counter authoritarian influence and invest in both hard and soft power to maintain stability. This highlights the need for the U.S. and Europe to strengthen their partnership and for nations to prioritize preparedness for evolving security threats.
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67.
The Brookings Africa Growth Initiative's new study argues that examining democratic resilience and fragility in African nations offers valuable insights for understanding global democratic trends. Their research, based on a year-long study, identifies specific factors contributing to both democratic endurance and decline, moving beyond simplistic narratives. The findings highlight the importance of local context, civil society engagement, and adaptable governance structures in navigating geopolitical pressures. This suggests that international support for democracy should be tailored to specific African contexts and prioritize strengthening local institutions rather than imposing external models.
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68.
Rising office vacancy rates and high housing costs are prompting consideration of converting offices into housing. This Brookings report examines the potential of this conversion across six cities, finding that while economically feasible in some contexts, it's often not viable due to valuation gaps. Simulations suggest that, when implemented strategically, conversions can contribute to desegregation and increase economic integration, particularly when combined with affordable housing initiatives. Local governments should carefully assess their specific market conditions and policy levers to maximize the impact of office-to-housing conversions.
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69.
Since the pandemic, Americans rank affordability as their top concern, with costs for healthcare, housing, groceries, and utilities rising substantially faster than the 30.8% wage growth experienced. Healthcare costs have surged most dramatically—worker insurance contributions jumped 308% while wages rose only 119%, and median home purchase ages have jumped from 30 to 40 years as housing costs rose 28%, making homeownership unattainable for average families with median incomes of $85,000. This affordability crisis has proven electorally decisive, with recent Democratic victories centered on these bread-and-butter economic issues, and with the Iran conflict driving energy and food prices higher, the 2026 midterms will likely hinge on this issue as President Trump's inflation approval rating stands at just 34%, endangering Republican House candidates in swing districts.
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70.
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, effectively blocking maritime traffic to near-zero levels. Despite ongoing U.S. military campaigns, Iran maintains defiance with 5,000-6,000 mines and asymmetric naval capabilities, making military escorts prohibitively risky and potentially counterproductive to market confidence. Strategic petroleum reserve releases will only offset 7% of the 15-17% supply loss, while sustained market recovery requires the broader military conflict to end—a timeline neither the U.S. nor Iran controls.
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71.
The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, created in 2007 to encourage public service employment, remained largely ineffective for over a decade due to administrative dysfunction, but Biden-era reforms transformed it into a substantial benefit program that has forgiven nearly $91 billion to 1.2 million borrowers as of January 2026. However, PSLF's design creates unintended consequences: it disproportionately benefits higher-earning graduate borrowers like physicians rather than lower-income workers, and interactions with other policies (generous income-driven repayment plans and unlimited graduate borrowing) dramatically increased costs beyond initial estimates. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will reduce program generosity through lower loan limits and repayment plan changes, while ongoing litigation-related administrative backlogs continue to burden borrowers and federal administration. The fundamental issue is that PSLF's interaction with the broader student loan ecosystem was not fully anticipated, creating problematic incentives around borrowing costs and raising questions about whether sector-based subsidies efficiently achieve public service employment goals.
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72.
Following the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, the Trump administration is pivoting to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 as its primary tariff mechanism. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 requires a formal administrative process with public comment periods and hearings, giving stakeholders an opportunity to shape the evidentiary record. USTR has initiated investigations affecting 60 economies—16 on 'structural excess capacity' policies and all 60 on forced labor import restrictions—with written comments due April 15, 2026. The eventual scope and defensibility of resulting tariffs will depend critically on how USTR defines key terms and frames its justifications. This procedural requirement creates both constraints on tariff scope and opportunities for businesses and workers to influence definitions that will affect supply chains, federal revenue, and trade policy for years to come.
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73.
The Declaration of Independence's phrase 'we hold these truths to be self-evident' established an empirical, rationalist foundation for democratic governance rather than a religious one—a philosophical distinction that shaped how America justified itself to the world. Since 1776, the Declaration has evolved from a legal independence document into a foundational text wielded by abolitionists, civil rights leaders, and freedom movements to hold the nation accountable to its stated principles of universal equality and self-governance. Today's crisis of polarization and institutional erosion threatens this shared framework, as citizens increasingly operate from incompatible versions of empirical reality, undermining the factual consensus that evidence-based policymaking and democratic deliberation require. Rebuilding institutions that translate scientific discovery into public policy and restoring commitment to shared empirical truth is essential for democratic functioning. The Declaration's assertion that all governments require justification based on facts and universal principles—not merely power—remains extraordinarily radical and directly applicable to contemporary challenges of authoritarianism and democratic backsliding.
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74.
Operation Metro Surge, a federal immigration enforcement campaign in December 2025, created an acute shock in Minneapolis-Saint Paul with no coordinated federal relief, forcing communities to rapidly self-organize responses. In this vacuum, mutual aid networks emerged organically while organizations like the Latino Economic Development Center deployed $800,000+ in emergency grants, and corporate leaders coordinated a $4 million Economic Response Fund to stabilize businesses facing an estimated $200 million in economic losses. The experience demonstrates that communities can respond effectively to policy shocks through grassroots coordination, pre-existing relationships of trust between nonprofits and institutions, and institutional agility—but requires advance resilience planning and cross-sector alignment. Key lessons for other communities include scenario planning for political disruptions, maintaining close connections with local government, and adopting innovation mindsets that prioritize speed over traditional bureaucratic processes.
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75.Metro Monitor 2026: The relationship between immigration and regional economic performance over the past decade (Brookings)
The Brookings Metro Monitor 2026 report demonstrates that U.S. metropolitan areas with growing immigrant populations achieved superior economic performance, including higher GMP growth and productivity, between 2014 and 2024. The study finds no evidence that immigration harms native-born workers; instead, those in high-immigration regions saw higher employment rates and median earnings than their counterparts in low-immigration areas. These findings challenge the economic rationale behind mass deportations, suggesting such policies risk shrinking the national workforce by 2.4 million and reducing GDP by 7% by 2028. To sustain regional vitality, the report argues that federal and local leaders must prioritize policies that attract and integrate foreign-born talent rather than restricting it.
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76.
USMCA has significantly deepened North American economic integration, with compliance rates for Mexican and Canadian exports rising to nearly 80% following 2025 tariff increases on non-agreement goods. Mexico has solidified its role as the top U.S. trading partner, transitioning toward high-value advanced technology sectors like AI servers and medical devices while de-risking from China. However, rising labor costs and policy uncertainty have constrained new investment and employment in traditional manufacturing. The report suggests the 2026 USMCA review must prioritize realistic regional content requirements and infrastructure improvements to sustain the current nearshoring momentum.
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77.
The report argues that the U.S. housing affordability crisis is driven by a chronic deficiency in supply rather than demand-side issues. It finds that popular demand-side subsidies, such as 50-year mortgages or interest rate buydowns, are counterproductive because they inflate prices in an inelastic market. To address this, policymakers should focus on supply-side interventions like upzoning, standardizing modular housing, and reforming property tax systems to tax land more than structures. Ultimately, meaningful progress requires reducing local regulatory control to overcome systemic biases against new residential development.
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78.
The article argues that repeated exposure to political violence and aggressive federal interventions in Minneapolis is fostering a 'TraumatizNation,' where a generation of youth is being shaped by chronic trauma and partisan conflict. Drawing on a decade of local crises—from high-profile police shootings and the pandemic to recent ICE raids—the author highlights how both direct and indirect trauma undermine children's mental health and long-term development. To mitigate these effects, the piece advocates for non-partisan policies that prioritize child well-being, increased funding for school-based mental health resources, and greater accountability for the collateral damage of state actions.
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79.
Brookings proposes the establishment of 'US Re,' a federal reinsurance entity designed to stabilize the U.S. homeowners insurance market against mounting climate-driven catastrophic risks. By leveraging the federal government’s lower cost of capital, US Re could provide more affordable and consistent coverage for extreme weather events than the volatile private reinsurance market. This strategic intervention aims to curb rising premiums and policy cancellations, ultimately protecting household financial stability and the broader housing market from climate-related shocks.
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80.
The U.S. Postal Service is facing an imminent liquidity crisis as its statutory self-financing model fails to sustain the Universal Service Obligation (USO) amidst a 56% decline in First-Class Mail volume since 2007. This fiscal strain is driven by a structural mismatch where the value of the postal monopoly no longer covers the fixed costs of nationwide delivery and mandated retiree obligations. To avoid cash exhaustion within the next year, the article argues that Congress must intervene through pension restructuring, explicit appropriations for the USO, or increased borrowing authority. Failure to act will likely result in service degradation that disproportionately affects rural populations and small businesses dependent on postal infrastructure.
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81.
Brookings has launched an interactive trade tracker to monitor significant shifts in U.S. trade flows and costs following a sharp increase in tariffs beginning in January 2025. The tool reveals how businesses proactively react to trade policy, evidenced by a massive surge in metal imports ahead of Section 232 implementation and heightened price volatility among major trading partners. These findings underscore the profound economic impact of aggressive trade enforcement and subsequent legal challenges, such as the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain emergency tariff actions.
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82.
This Brookings-RAND joint initiative examines whether current U.S. policy toward Taiwan and cross-strait relations remains adequate amid a deteriorating security environment in the Taiwan Strait. Through a series of expert workshops, the project explores five distinct policy pathways: limiting U.S. commitments while boosting Taiwan's self-defense, calibrating diplomacy to stabilize cross-strait dynamics, pursuing a more active denial strategy, and shifting toward strategic clarity. The analysis weighs how each option would affect U.S. deterrence posture, Taiwan's domestic politics, Beijing's strategic calculus, and broader Indo-Pacific security. The initiative signals growing mainstream debate within the U.S. policy community about whether the longstanding framework of strategic ambiguity should be revised or replaced, with significant implications for alliance management and escalation risk in the region.
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83.
This Brookings event examines how Ukraine has transformed from a peripheral 'blank spot' on Europe's mental map into a central pillar of European security, driven by its resistance to Russia's full-scale invasion. Historian Karl Schlögel argues that Ukraine's battlefield resilience and civil defense innovations have earned it a place in the European family, with countries like Germany now looking to Kyiv for strategic lessons. The discussion highlights that while Europe increasingly recognizes Ukraine's importance to its own defense architecture, Ukraine's path toward deeper institutional integration remains fraught with political and structural challenges, particularly amid a shifting transatlantic relationship.
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84.
The USMCA serves as a vital strategic anchor for North American economic integration and regional security as it approaches its first mandated joint review in 2026. Mexico highlights its role as the primary U.S. trading partner and its implementation of domestic reforms, such as "Plan México" and labor improvements, to demonstrate a commitment to increasing regional value-added and purchasing power. The upcoming review provides a critical opportunity to strengthen supply chain resilience and shared prosperity by aligning the agreement with evolving industrial policies and geopolitical realities. Policy success will depend on maintaining a diplomatic balance that addresses security and migration while respecting national sovereignty across the three member nations.
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85.
This analysis evaluates the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, contending that significant military successes in degrading nuclear and missile capabilities have not yet triggered the regime's collapse. Key indicators, such as the stable succession of Mojtaba Khamenei and the lack of military defections, suggest that the theocracy is consolidating into a 'rump state' capable of sustained regional disruption against Gulf energy infrastructure. The authors warn that an exit strategy focused solely on conventional degradation may leave a bloodied regime with even greater incentives to pursue nuclear weapons as an ultimate deterrent, potentially turning tactical victories into a long-term strategic liability.
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86.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to Washington seeks to reinforce the U.S.-Japan alliance through $550 billion in strategic investment pledges and record-breaking defense spending. However, the partnership is being strained by new U.S. tariff offensives and the redirection of American military assets from the Indo-Pacific to address escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Tokyo faces a difficult balancing act as it navigates U.S. demands for maritime assistance in the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to maintain credible deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Ultimately, the visit highlights a growing tension where Washington-driven economic and security shocks are complicating Japan's pursuit of strategic autonomy and regional stability.
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87.
A new Brookings/Hamilton Project paper by Adam Solomon examines how foreign governments use public reinsurance to address natural catastrophe insurance market failures, drawing lessons for a proposed U.S. federal reinsurance entity. Analyzing programs in Australia, the U.K., France, Spain, Japan, and elsewhere, Solomon finds that the most durable systems combine risk-based pricing, mandatory broad participation to prevent adverse selection, defined hazard coverage, and credible funding backstops such as industry levies and government guarantees. The paper concludes that well-designed public reinsurance can stabilize strained insurance markets by concentrating government capital on correlated tail risks while preserving private-sector underwriting and mitigation incentives—offering a viable policy path as U.S. property insurance becomes increasingly unaffordable or unavailable due to extreme weather.
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88.
Brookings hosted a discussion on the sweeping changes to the federal student loan program enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed in July 2025. The legislation reduced borrowing limits for graduate students and parents while overhauling the repayment system for both new and existing borrowers. The event featured Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, a panel of higher education policy experts, and Undersecretary of Education Nicholas Kent discussing impacts on borrowers, families, and institutions. The discussion signals ongoing policy uncertainty as the administration implements these reforms, with significant implications for higher education access and affordability.
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89.
Current housing supply and affordability metrics rely heavily on 'household heads,' a framework that masks the actual housing strain experienced by nearly half of the adult population who are not designated as heads. Analysis of 2024 American Community Survey data reveals that non-head adults often differ significantly from heads in age and education, with younger individuals being much more exposed to high housing costs than head-based statistics suggest. These measurement gaps risk underestimating true housing demand and mistargeting relief policies, as suppressed headship rates often reflect economic constraints rather than a genuine reduction in housing need.
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90.
The 2026 USMCA Forward report highlights a period of significant uncertainty as the agreement undergoes its first-ever joint review, with the U.S. currently signaling a preference for continuation without renewal unless key concessions are obtained. While trade and investment flows have grown under the agreement, the analysis points to strained diplomatic trust and sectoral challenges in automotive, steel, and agriculture due to persistent tariff threats. Ultimately, the review process serves as a critical mechanism for adapting the trade framework to modern economic realities, though its long-term stability depends on addressing U.S. demands for structural revisions.
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91.
Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman reflects on his 2012 meeting with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting the Supreme Leader's paranoid obsession with United States 'enmity' and his conviction that America was a declining, malicious power. During the encounter, Khamenei ignored standard diplomatic topics to deliver a lengthy monologue indicting U.S. foreign policy and predicting its internal collapse, dismissing diplomatic overtures as deceptive ruses. This rigid ideological hostility drove Iran’s regional proxy warfare and nuclear ambitions, indicating that Khamenei viewed negotiations primarily as a tactical means to buy time. The reflection underscores how the Supreme Leader's unshakeable distrust shaped decades of Iranian policy, persisting through major escalations until his death in early 2026.
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92.
Iraq faces a critical threat of internal collapse as it becomes an involuntary staging ground for escalating hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the United States following the assassination of Ali Khamenei. Despite a weakened interim government, Iraqi political and religious leaders like Grand Ayatollah Sistani are striving to maintain neutrality to prevent a descent into multi-front civil conflict involving various paramilitary and ethnic groups. The country's stability is currently jeopardized by retaliatory strikes on its soil and disruptions to vital oil and electricity infrastructure. Consequently, the United States should avoid escalatory military actions within Iraq and prioritize diplomatic partnerships to preserve the country's role as a regional stabilizer.
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93.
Brookings experts argue that the U.S.-Israeli decapitation strike against Iran’s leadership is unlikely to trigger an immediate regime collapse, risking instead a protracted conflict and regional instability. The analysis highlights the resilience of the Islamic Republic's institutional networks and its escalatory survival strategy, which targets neighboring energy infrastructure to force diplomatic concessions. Policymakers are warned that without a coherent 'day after' plan or the integration of civilian statecraft, the intervention could lead to a 'lose-lose' scenario of state fragmentation and emboldened global adversaries.
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94.
The Brookings Institution has launched a comprehensive tracker to monitor the significant expansion of U.S. tariffs implemented since January 2025, targeting major trading partners including Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU. These measures include broad sectoral tariffs on commodities like steel and aluminum, alongside country-specific adjustments tied to USMCA compliance and ongoing trade negotiations. By documenting trade-weighted tariff changes and retaliatory actions, the tracker highlights a pivot toward more protectionist U.S. trade policies. Continuous monitoring of these developments is critical for assessing the long-term impact on global economic stability and the status of evolving trade agreements.
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95.
The Brookings 2026 USMCA Forward report argues that the upcoming joint review of the trade agreement is a critical juncture for North American partners to address structural strains and enhance regional competitiveness. Through analyses of key sectors like automotive, steel, and pharmaceuticals, the report highlights how increased economic integration persists despite political friction and supply chain vulnerabilities. Policymakers must focus on refining dispute settlement processes and labor mechanisms to ensure the agreement remains a stable foundation for continental trade rather than a source of recurring uncertainty.
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96.
Brookings experts argue that the Trump administration’s military campaign against Iran lacks a coherent long-term strategy and clear objectives, shifting from nuclear containment to regime change without adequate planning for the resulting power vacuum. While conventional strikes were initially successful, the U.S. remains vulnerable to asymmetric threats like drones and faces massive logistical challenges in evacuating hundreds of thousands of citizens from the region. Analysts emphasize the need for an immediate diplomatic 'off-ramp' and a realistic plan for dealing with a weakened but still-entrenched Iranian regime to avoid prolonged regional instability.
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97.
The Brookings report finds that President Trump’s second-term staffing strategy has prioritized loyalty and extensive pre-transition planning, leading to a more stable senior staff but a highly centralized executive branch. Key evidence includes a record-setting initial pace of nominations facilitated by a 2025 Senate rule change, contrasted by an unprecedented wave of firings targeting inspectors general and officials with 'for-cause' protections. These actions suggest a deliberate effort to remove institutional guardrails and consolidate political power within the White House, significantly reducing the independence of federal agencies.
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98.
The Brookings Institution highlights the growing disconnect between educational systems and labor market needs, which complicates the transition from school to high-wage employment for students and workers. The event examines how fragmented pathways—including degrees, apprenticeships, and work-based learning—often lack the alignment necessary to provide learners with relevant experience or employers with skilled talent. Panelists argue for systemic reforms to make high school more career-relevant, postsecondary options more affordable, and professional entry points more accessible for lifelong learners. Ultimately, building clearer pathways to 'good work' requires better coordination between educational institutions and employers to ensure workforce development meets modern economic demands.
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99.
The Supreme Court's ruling in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad tariffs, reasserting that the power to raise revenue resides with Congress under the Taxing Clause. While the decision eliminates the administration’s primary tool for immediate, open-ended duties, Brookings experts note that significant economic uncertainty persists as the executive branch pivots to alternative authorities like Sections 122, 232, and 301. This shift may force more deliberate, evidence-based trade investigations and increase legislative accountability, yet it also threatens to exacerbate federal deficits and complicate relations with key allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
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100.
Brookings scholars characterize the current state of the U.S. Union as a period of significant institutional imbalance and 'dissonance' across governance, economics, and security. Evidence includes a depleted federal workforce due to administrative layoffs, the politicization of military leadership, and persistent household frustration over structural affordability despite moderate official inflation. These trends imply a weakening of the separation of powers and a potential breakdown in traditional global alliances, leading to a more volatile and less predictable policy environment. Consequently, the U.S. faces a heightened risk of institutional instability that could impair its ability to respond to future domestic and international crises.
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101.
This Brookings report finds that the Trump administration’s second-term China strategy has produced significant rhetoric but few measurable results after one year. Key economic indicators like manufacturing employment and industrial production remain stagnant despite high-profile investment pledges, while U.S. global standing among allies has declined sharply. In technology, inconsistent export controls and infrastructure bottlenecks are straining America’s lead in AI against a more self-sufficient Chinese ecosystem. Consequently, the administration must shift from transactional signaling to sustained policy execution and alliance rebuilding to effectively reduce strategic dependencies and counter Beijing's influence.
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102.
The United States is entering an increasingly dangerous nuclear era as Russia and China simultaneously modernize and expand their arsenals, presenting the unprecedented challenge of facing two nuclear peers. The collapse of the New START treaty has removed critical constraints on strategic forces, while regional instabilities in Iran and the Korean Peninsula further exacerbate the threat environment. These developments are placing immense strain on U.S. extended deterrence commitments and raising risks of allied nuclear proliferation. Consequently, policymakers must urgently reassess foundational assumptions regarding nuclear posture, modernization, and the integration of emerging defense technologies like the "Golden Dome" missile system.
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103.
President Trump's 2026 State of the Union address prioritized showmanship and base mobilization over addressing the concerns of swing voters or the ongoing affordability crisis. While highlighting positive economic indicators and military successes, the President doubled down on controversial immigration enforcement and tariff policies that face significant public opposition. This strategy suggests a focus on the 2026 midterms through base consolidation rather than outreach to key declining demographics like Hispanics and independents. Consequently, the administration risks further alienating moderate voters who remain primarily concerned with inflation and healthcare costs.
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104.
U.S. electricity prices have outpaced inflation in over half of the states since 2019, creating a growing cost-of-living crisis and potentially harming national economic competitiveness. This trend is expected to persist, straining household budgets and undermining industrial activity unless credible policy solutions are implemented to address complex regional pricing variations. To mitigate these impacts, experts are analyzing the underlying regulatory and market drivers to identify strategies for reining in costs for both consumers and industry.
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105.
Brookings scholars analyze the second Trump administration's first year of education policy, highlighting a paradoxical strategy of dismantling federal bureaucracy while aggressively using civil rights enforcement to advance culture-war priorities. Key actions include slashing Department of Education staff, ending DEI initiatives despite empirical evidence of their value, and withholding funds from institutions over campus protests and transgender policies. The analysis suggests that while executive orders have significantly restructured the federal role, long-term impact remains uncertain due to ongoing litigation and the need for Congressional support to terminate major programs like IDEA and Title I.
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106.
President Claudia Sheinbaum is aggressively dismantling networks of collusion between politicians and organized crime to consolidate her executive authority and stabilize U.S.-Mexico relations. This strategy is evidenced by 'Operation Swarm,' which has achieved unusually high conviction rates for corrupt municipal officials, and the strategic replacement of senior federal figures tied to her predecessor. Success could significantly strengthen the rule of law and reduce cartel influence, though the administration faces risks of internal political fracturing and the historical tendency for corruption to re-infiltrate reformed institutions.
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107.
Africa’s creative economy is emerging as a high-growth frontier for global investment, with the sector projected to reach a value of $200 billion by 2030. Driven by the world’s youngest workforce and rapid digital adoption, industries like music, gaming, and film are attracting significant international capital despite persistent challenges in infrastructure and intellectual property protection. Success in this market requires strategies focused on mobile-first accessibility, infrastructure development, and leveraging the diaspora’s purchasing power. Consequently, addressing structural barriers and formalizing creative enterprises is essential for transforming Africa’s cultural output into a sustainable driver of inclusive economic growth.
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108.
The Supreme Court's decision to invalidate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariff imposition has removed the U.S. executive branch's primary tool for rapidly deploying broad country-level duties. This ruling forces the administration to seek alternative statutory authorities to advance its trade strategy, potentially slowing the pace of tariff implementation. The resulting policy shift carries significant implications for business costs, supply chains, and federal revenues, while challenging the long-term stability of the international trading system. Consequently, the legal clarification of presidential emergency powers necessitates a fundamental reassessment of how U.S. economic statecraft will be conducted in the future.
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109.
Brookings has released an updated interactive tool, "Tracking the labor market and jobs," designed to provide detailed monthly monitoring of the U.S. workforce through various demographic lenses. The tool utilizes Current Population Survey microdata to offer granular insights into labor force participation, employment-population ratios, and nuanced unemployment metrics like the U-5 rate. By allowing cross-tabulation of factors such as nativity, education, and parental status, it highlights specific disparities and trends that headline economic figures often obscure. This capability is essential for policymakers to design evidence-based interventions that address the unique challenges faced by different segments of the labor market.
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110.When medicines are controlled: How Drug Enforcement Administration rules exacerbate drug shortages (Brookings)
This Brookings event discusses how the Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA) regulatory framework, particularly its quota system for Schedule II medicines, exacerbates persistent drug shortages in the United States. While these production limits aim to prevent the diversion of medications like opioids and ADHD treatments for illicit use, they often fail to account for manufacturing realities, leading to delays and rationing in patient care. The panel explores the intersection of federal regulation and supply chain stability, suggesting that reforms are necessary to balance public safety with the reliable availability of essential medicines.
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111.
The 'America First' tariffs of 2025-2026 have not triggered an immediate recession, largely due to the U.S. economy's resilience and the relatively small role of traded goods in its overall GDP. However, the policy marks a definitive end to the post-WWII rules-based trade order, as tariffs are increasingly used as tools for foreign policy leverage and economic statecraft rather than mere industry protection. While businesses have adapted in the short term, experts warn of long-term consequences including persistent inflationary pressure and reduced economic competition. Ultimately, the shift necessitates a new national consensus to balance the benefits of open trade against the strategic risks of dependency on geopolitical adversaries.
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112.
Brookings argues that ICE’s rapid expansion and weakened hiring and training standards have led to a surge in excessive force incidents, including the deaths of U.S. citizens. The report highlights that training durations have been cut by over 60% while 'absolute immunity' claims increasingly shield agents from accountability for constitutional violations. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend implementing mandatory de-escalation training, cross-checking misconduct files, and requiring body-worn cameras. These reforms are presented as critical steps to restore institutional legitimacy and protect civil rights during domestic enforcement operations.
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113.
The article argues that the traditional model of data center development—characterized by short-term construction jobs and high resource consumption—must be replaced by a 'mutualistic' approach that leverages AI infrastructure for long-term regional prosperity. It highlights that the current AI scale-up has granted local governments new leverage to negotiate for high-value benefits, such as university R&D partnerships, compute access, and shared equity endowments, rather than settling for modest tax revenues. Policymakers are encouraged to move beyond 'race-to-the-bottom' incentive competitions and instead integrate data centers into broader tech ecosystems that drive energy innovation and local talent development. Ultimately, the report suggests that transforming isolated data centers into community-supported AI hubs is necessary to ensure the industry's growth delivers on its promise of widespread economic reindustrialization.
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114.
The article argues that current U.S. immigration policies focused solely on deterrence are causing significant economic damage, including negative net migration and a $50 billion reduction in consumer spending. It highlights how aggressive enforcement and the closure of legal pathways have resulted in severe labor shortages across agriculture, engineering, and healthcare sectors. Brookings suggests that a balanced approach—combining credible enforcement with expanded lawful pathways and regional diplomacy—is necessary to manage migration sustainably. The analysis concludes that 2026 requires a shift toward modernizing the visa system and reforming asylum processes to ensure long-term economic stability and border order.
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115.
The report argues that European nations must strengthen sanctions against Russia’s 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers by mandating adequate insurance coverage through stricter regulation of flag states. This strategy aims to force vessels back into Western-regulated services, ensuring compliance with price caps and mitigating the risk of uninsured environmental disasters. Economic modeling indicates that aggressive enforcement, including insurance disclosure and flag state liability, could reduce Russian Baltic oil tax revenues by up to 14% while shifting the majority of trade to compliant vessels. To implement this, the UK and EU should coordinate on universal maritime standards and exert diplomatic and economic pressure on 'flags of convenience' to eliminate loopholes used for sanctions evasion.
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116.
A yearlong global study by the Brookings Institution finds that the current risks of generative AI in children's education, such as undermining foundational learning and social-emotional well-being, outweigh its potential benefits. Based on consultations with over 500 stakeholders and a review of 400 studies, the report warns that overreliance on AI tools can diminish students' fundamental learning capacity and trusting relationships. To address these challenges, the authors propose a 'Prosper, Prepare, and Protect' framework that advocates for pedagogically sound AI deployment, enhanced AI literacy, and robust regulatory frameworks. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for human-centered design, educator involvement in tool creation, and strict privacy protections to ensure AI enriches rather than hinders development.
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117.
The article examines why the U.S. economy remains resilient despite significant policy shocks from President Trump’s second-term agenda, including high tariffs, sharp immigration cuts, and attacks on Federal Reserve independence. It identifies four potential explanations: the shocks may be overestimated in scale, offsetting stimuli like the AI boom are providing support, traditional economic models may understate the economy's inherent diversity, or the full negative impacts are simply delayed. However, metrics such as rising unemployment and risk premia suggest a gradual deterioration, implying that long-term stability is not guaranteed if these pressures persist.
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118.Even in ‘business-friendly’ states, federal policy shocks are hurting Latino-owned firms (Brookings)
Federal policy volatility—including intensified immigration enforcement, tariff uncertainty, and the retrenchment of public contracting—is disproportionately destabilizing Latino-owned businesses in traditionally "business-friendly" states like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. These firms serve as economic bellwethers because they are concentrated in labor-intensive sectors like construction and services, where policy shocks transmit fastest and financial buffers are thinnest. The report warns that this environment creates a "K-shaped" business landscape where small, place-based firms face quiet attrition while larger, insulated corporations consolidate. Consequently, long-term economic competitiveness in these high-growth regions will depend more on ensuring predictable policy stability than on traditional tax-incentive models.
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119.
Brookings reports that U.S. net migration turned negative in 2025 for the first time in over fifty years due to restrictive administration policies, with the trend expected to persist through 2026. This reversal is driven by sharp declines in visa and refugee inflows coupled with increased interior enforcement and voluntary departures. Economically, this shift has slashed 'breakeven' employment growth to near-zero levels, dampened GDP, and is projected to reduce consumer spending by up to $110 billion. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize the unemployment rate over raw job growth figures to accurately assess labor market health and adjust monetary policy.
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120.Reduced immigration slowed population growth for the nation and most states, new census data show (Brookings)
New Census Bureau data shows that U.S. population growth slowed to 0.52% in 2024-25, a drop primarily attributed to a 50% decline in net international migration. While immigration fell to 1.3 million people, it still accounted for 71% of total national growth as natural increase remains historically low. Nearly every state experienced slower growth or population losses, including major hubs like California, which flipped to a decline as immigration could no longer offset domestic out-migration. These findings imply that further immigration cuts will likely result in widespread population contraction and significant long-term challenges for labor force productivity.
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121.
The India AI Impact Summit represents a strategic shift in global AI governance from theoretical safety concerns toward practical deployment, impact, and inclusivity for the Global South. By focusing on "People, Planet, and Progress," the summit aims to move beyond high-level principles to address the "implementation gap" through operational standards and sovereign AI initiatives that reduce technological dependency. Experts argue that long-term success requires establishing durable cross-border accountability frameworks and ensuring emerging economies play a sustained role in technical standard-setting.
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122.
The Robert Noyce Teacher Scholarship Program serves as a vital federal initiative to address acute staffing challenges and quality concerns within the K-12 STEM teacher pipeline. Recent research highlights how this program aims to improve the quantity and quality of STEM instructors, particularly in high-need school districts where demand is highest. Strengthening the teacher pipeline through such targeted programs is essential for ensuring students have access to the robust STEM instruction required for national workforce readiness.
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123.
The Brookings report argues that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) threatens the U.S. care economy by severely restricting the immigrant labor force that sustains it. By increasing deportation funding, raising work permit fees, and stripping Medicaid and SNAP eligibility from many noncitizens, the law creates significant labor shortages in nursing homes and childcare centers. These disruptions are projected to lead to worsened health outcomes for vulnerable populations and higher costs for the broader healthcare system. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends state-level implementations of a Domestic Worker Bill of Rights to safeguard essential caregivers regardless of their immigration status.
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124.
The article argues that the U.S. must update its narrative on Taiwan, moving away from viewing the island as a 'strategic liability' or a single point of failure for the global economy. It highlights that Taiwan's hardware is the irreplaceable backbone of America's AI ambitions and that conflict with China is not inevitable if a credible military deterrent is maintained. The proposed policy shift emphasizes a middle path: preserving the status quo to allow for an eventual non-coercive resolution while grounding U.S. support in calculated self-interest rather than ideological charity.
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125.
China's expansion of zero-tariff access for African nations is unlikely to rebalance trade on its own, as the continent's exports remain heavily concentrated in low-value raw materials and minerals. Despite initiatives to boost agricultural trade, China maintains a persistent $60 billion trade surplus with Africa, highlighting deep-seated structural imbalances. To achieve long-term growth, Africa must leverage this policy to attract foreign direct investment and drive industrialization, positioning itself as a strategic, low-tariff production hub for the Chinese market.
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126.
Africa's working-age population is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, presenting a critical opportunity to harness a demographic dividend through strategic investment in its 830 million youth. Despite gains in school enrollment, high rates of learning poverty and a lack of STEM competencies threaten to leave a generation ill-equipped for the 21st-century labor market. To ensure prosperity, policymakers must prioritize early childhood health, improve foundational education quality, and foster a dynamic economic environment supported by stable governance. Successful transformation depends on matching individual competencies with state systems that can generate high-quality jobs and resist external shocks.
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127.
This collection of essays argues that the United States and China must coordinate to mitigate the 'malicious uplift' of non-state actors using advanced AI for cyberattacks, biological weapons, and disinformation. The authors highlight that AI's low cost and high accessibility create systemic risks that traditional arms control cannot easily manage, necessitating shared safety guidelines and crisis communication channels. Ultimately, bilateral cooperation is viewed as a necessary catalyst for a global multilateral non-proliferation framework to prevent 'safety arbitrage' by malicious groups.
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128.
The Foresight Africa 2026 report argues that while the continent faces a contraction in foreign aid and a rapidly expanding labor force, it can achieve resilient growth by prioritizing internal resource mobilization and human capital development. Key strategies include leveraging natural resource wealth for financing, accelerating industry-led growth through mineral beneficiation, and operationalizing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Policy efforts must focus on creating quality jobs for a population projected to double by 2050 to prevent fragility and ensure long-term stability. Consequently, African and global stakeholders are encouraged to coordinate on structural reforms and asserted geopolitical interests to transform current economic pressures into sustainable development opportunities.
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129.Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21 st century (Brookings)
Brookings’ expert roundtable argues that a U.S. "Donroe Doctrine" push for hemispheric primacy is more likely to weaken than strengthen Washington’s position in long-term competition with China, though one contributor contends it could restore deterrence by denying Beijing footholds near U.S. borders. The dominant reasoning is that coercive regional tactics and unilateral moves drain U.S. military bandwidth from the Indo-Pacific, damage alliances, and erode soft power while giving China narrative and diplomatic advantages. Experts also note China’s already deep regional footprint, including major trade, investment, and infrastructure ties across Latin America, which makes a clean spheres-of-influence rollback unrealistic. Strategically, a formal U.S.-China spheres bargain is assessed as unstable and asymmetric: it could pressure smaller states to hedge, accelerate regional militarization and possible nuclear proliferation, and incentivize revisionist claims elsewhere, suggesting U.S. policy should prioritize alliance credibility, rules-based coordination, and positive economic alternatives over coercion.