The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Reduced immigration slowed population growth for the nation and most states, new census data show
English Summary
New Census Bureau data shows that U.S. population growth slowed to 0.52% in 2024-25, a drop primarily attributed to a 50% decline in net international migration. While immigration fell to 1.3 million people, it still accounted for 71% of total national growth as natural increase remains historically low. Nearly every state experienced slower growth or population losses, including major hubs like California, which flipped to a decline as immigration could no longer offset domestic out-migration. These findings imply that further immigration cuts will likely result in widespread population contraction and significant long-term challenges for labor force productivity.
中文摘要
美國人口普查局的最新數據顯示，2024至2025年間美國人口增長率放緩至 0.52%，此一降幅主要歸因於國際淨遷移人數驟減 50%。儘管移民人數降至 130 萬人，但在自然增長持續處於歷史低點的情況下，移民仍佔全國人口總增長的 71%。幾乎所有州都面臨增長放緩或人口流失，包括加利福尼亞州等主要樞紐，因移民增長已不足以抵銷國內遷出，導致人口轉為負增長。這些調查結果顯示，進一步削減移民規模可能會導致廣泛的人口收縮，並為勞動力生產力帶來顯著的長期挑戰。
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