The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The U.S.-China Trade Relationship: What’s Behind the Competition?
English Summary
The U.S.-China trade relationship remains defined by intense competition, characterized by persistent tariffs and tech export controls, despite temporary truces. While the conflict is driven by concerns over trade imbalances and China's adherence to global rules, the two economies remain deeply interdependent, making complete decoupling highly unlikely. Policy efforts are shifting away from achieving a definitive 'win' and toward managing this complex interdependence. Strategically, the U.S. must navigate the tension between protecting critical domestic industries and maintaining necessary global supply chains, suggesting a need for formalized mechanisms to manage future trade agreements.
中文摘要
美中貿易關係在暫時休戰的背景下，仍以激烈的競爭為主軸，其特徵是持續的關稅和科技出口管制。儘管衝突的根源在於對貿易失衡和中國遵守全球規則的擔憂，但兩經濟體仍存在深度相互依賴性，使得完全脫鉤的可能性極低。政策努力正從追求明確的「贏家」轉向管理這種複雜的相互依賴。從戰略角度來看，美國必須在保護關鍵國內產業與維持必要的全球供應鏈之間尋求平衡，這暗示著需要建立制度化的機制來管理未來的貿易協定。
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