Africa's economic landscape is at a critical inflection point, shifting away from traditional foreign aid toward sophisticated commercial investment and private-sector co-investment. This transition is underpinned by major regional initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which grants African nations significant agency and negotiating leverage. Consequently, external powers must pivot their strategy from conditional development assistance to facilitating partnerships in key sectors such as digital infrastructure, energy transition, agribusiness, and critical minerals. Failure to acknowledge Africa's growing market options risks diminishing the influence of any single global partner.
AI
This topic hub groups ThinkTankWeekly entries tagged AI and links readers back to the original publishers.
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The Iran conflict has exposed Asia's economic security to extreme vulnerability, primarily due to over-reliance on critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. This acute risk is compounded by a lack of great power stabilization, as major powers weaponize economic vulnerabilities rather than ensuring open trade routes. To mitigate the threat of stagflation and supply shocks, Asian nations must pivot toward collective resilience initiatives. Policy strategies should focus on establishing joint strategic reserves, expanding cross-border energy grids, and deepening regional cooperation to manage dependencies and stabilize critical commodity flows.
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The global jobs challenge is bifurcated: developing nations face a massive 'demographic time bomb' due to 1.2 billion young people entering the workforce with insufficient job creation; while developed economies must adapt to labor market disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The core finding is that solving poverty and unemployment requires moving beyond fragmented projects (e.g., only building hospitals or only providing vaccines). Instead, policy must adopt a holistic approach—simultaneously developing physical infrastructure, human capital, and governance—to enable private sector growth and create sustainable opportunities for all citizens.
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The Brookings article argues that AI integration into education emergencies must prioritize supporting teachers and strengthening human relationships rather than substituting them. Given global educational disruptions and shrinking funding, technology proves most effective when it serves as an adult-facing tool—helping educators with resources and professional development to ease the burden on community workers. For AI tools to be beneficial, policy requires that local educators are co-designers, data privacy is paramount, and these technologies must be treated as public goods rather than purely commercial products. This approach ensures that innovation supports vulnerable populations without reinforcing existing inequalities.
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The central finding is that sustainable poverty reduction requires a strategic shift from fragmented development aid to prioritizing smart job creation as the most effective tool for empowering populations. This urgency is underscored by a massive demographic bulge of young people in emerging markets, which poses a significant national security and economic risk if insufficient jobs are created. Policy recommendations emphasize adopting integrated strategies that link employment opportunities to holistic infrastructure development—including health, education, and clean energy—rather than funding single-issue projects. Crucially, governments must focus on building productive capacity and mobilizing private capital to ensure scalable, dignified job growth.
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6.The spiking threat: Mexican cartels in Europe, Canada, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America (Brookings)
Mexican cartels, including Sinaloa and CJNG, have established a significant global footprint, expanding far beyond Mexico and the U.S. into Europe, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. The primary threat involves shifting from cocaine to highly potent synthetic drugs like methamphetamine and fentanyl, establishing production labs across diverse international regions while diversifying into human trafficking and illegal mining. This transnational reach undermines traditional law enforcement efforts by creating resilient, redundant supply chains and laundering networks worldwide. Policy must therefore prioritize enhanced international intelligence sharing, dismantling clandestine drug laboratories, and addressing local corruption to effectively counter this complex global criminal threat.
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Anthropic warns that AI's rapid advancement toward 'recursive self-improvement' poses an existential threat by potentially surpassing human control and creating autonomous cyber weapons. This warning is supported by evidence of exponential acceleration in model capabilities and code generation, suggesting a loss of human oversight is imminent. The primary policy implication is the urgent need for a multilateral global arms control regime to manage this risk. However, implementing such controls faces immense challenges from geopolitical rivalry (particularly China's role) and the sheer speed at which technological innovation is accelerating.
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The global economy faces a paradox of slowing growth amid massive technological investment booms, driven by geopolitical headwinds like Middle East conflicts. Analysts argue that these crises are accelerating the strategic importance of 'chokepoints'—both physical and financial—forcing a fundamental shift in global trade strategy. Consequently, nations must pivot from prioritizing pure efficiency to building systemic redundancy and resilience across energy supplies and supply chains. Policymakers should therefore focus on de-risking critical infrastructure and diversifying sources to mitigate vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, especially within developing economies.
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The Brookings analysis argues that generative AI presents a dual challenge to modern education: it is a powerful tool when implemented with thoughtful, narrow design, but its widespread, general use risks diminishing fundamental student learning and development. Key evidence from recent reports highlights the need for careful integration strategies rather than blanket adoption of general-purpose AI tools in classrooms. For policymakers, this implies that educational strategy must shift toward guiding targeted technological implementation to maximize AI's potential as a support mechanism while actively mitigating over-reliance and ensuring core skills are maintained.
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South Korea successfully navigated a severe constitutional crisis—triggered by an attempted martial law declaration—demonstrating significant democratic resilience despite intense political polarization. Key to this stability was the swift and independent action of the Constitutional Court, which upheld impeachment charges against the former president, thereby reinforcing judicial checks on executive power. Furthermore, the subsequent administration has prioritized national unity and pragmatic governance over partisan conflict, focusing heavily on economic revival through AI investment and strengthening regional alliances. This episode offers a critical model for other democracies grappling with democratic backsliding, underscoring that robust institutional safeguards and an independent judiciary are vital bulwarks against political instability.
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While Macron's Evian G7 successfully facilitated dialogue and included emerging economies, the summit ultimately highlighted significant structural limitations within the group under President Trump’s leadership. Key outcomes were constrained by US 'America first' positions, leading the G7 to avoid deep policy discussions on core issues like climate change or comprehensive global governance. Although declarations were made regarding Ukraine support and critical minerals cooperation, the inability of members to share core values or address systemic risks (e.g., AI regulation) signals a functional gap in current multilateral frameworks. Policymakers must therefore recognize that the G7 requires an urgent overhaul of its format to effectively tackle complex global challenges.
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The Brookings analysis argues that a significant gap exists between modern educational aspirations—such as fostering human flourishing and preparing students for an AI-disrupted world—and the current structural capacity of education systems. This tension is not due to teacher resistance, but rather systemic failures in the 'architecture' of the educational ecosystem, including inadequate professional support, restrictive administrative requirements, and poor career progression models. To bridge this gap, policy must move beyond aspirational statements and implement concrete institutional reforms, focusing on enhancing teacher well-being, providing sustained professional development time, and restructuring accountability to reward collaboration. Successful global models demonstrate that investing in the structural status of educators is critical for improving student outcomes.
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Ukraine's continuous innovation in drone technology, autonomous systems, and Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs) has successfully reversed Russia’s military momentum by enabling long-range strikes deep into Russian territory. Key evidence includes the deployment of precise, mass-produced, and attritable systems that disrupt enemy logistics and command structures across both land and sea theaters. Furthermore, Ukraine's resilient domestic defense industrial base allows it to rapidly scale production despite sustained attacks. Strategically, this asymmetric capability enhances Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense and exert increasing pressure on Russia, making continued conflict increasingly difficult for the aggressor.
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The article argues that maintaining U.S. technological leadership in the AI race requires massive, sustained capital investment, which demands careful monetary policy support. Drawing on Alan Greenspan's historical success during the 1990s tech boom, the analysis warns that current macroeconomic institutions risk misreading a profound productivity paradigm shift caused by AI. Because AI-driven growth is not fully captured by traditional statistics, policymakers must avoid raising interest rates or slowing investment based on backward-looking data. Failing to do so could weaken U.S. long-term technological competitiveness against rivals like China.
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The article posits that while AI offers immense potential for global economic revitalization, the United States must first address deep-seated structural issues. The core challenge identified is decades of slow labor productivity growth, which has depressed average incomes and fueled significant political polarization both domestically and globally. To successfully navigate the 'AI Shock,' policy efforts must focus on leveraging technological advancements to boost overall worker productivity. Failure to do so risks exacerbating existing economic disparities and social instability, undermining AI's transformative potential.
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The Brookings report argues that the success of AI in education is not determined by the technology itself, but by robust underlying support systems. Evidence from past EdTech rollouts shows that for AI to succeed, it must function as a complement to—not a replacement for—human teachers, and deployment requires reliable infrastructure (connectivity, power) and teacher capacity. Policy implications stress moving beyond input metrics toward evidence-based reforms; thus, AI's immediate value may lie in institutional support tasks (e.g., administration), while policymakers must prioritize building local decision-making capacity and achieving stakeholder consensus on the core purpose of education.
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Brookings argues that framing US-China AI development as a simple 'race' oversimplifies the complex strategic reality. The U.S. strategy is heavily focused on achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Superintelligence, driving massive compute spending within advanced labs. Conversely, China’s approach emphasizes practical application, aiming to integrate AI into every sector of its economy—from manufacturing to healthcare—rather than focusing solely on theoretical benchmarks. Policymakers must recognize that true power lies not in achieving the highest benchmark score, but in the widespread diffusion and real-world usability of the technology.
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18.AI agents put offensive cyber within reach of novices: Comparing the performance of AI agents to humans in offensive cyber operations (RAND)
The RAND report concludes that advanced AI agents have dramatically lowered the barrier to entry for offensive cyber operations, making complex hacking tasks accessible even to novices without specialized expertise. Evidence from testing shows that modern models can solve challenging Capture-the-Flag (CTF) scenarios quickly and cheaply using only straightforward prompting, a significant leap compared to previous findings with 2025 AI tools. This rapid democratization of powerful offensive capabilities fundamentally alters the threat landscape by making sophisticated cyberattacks widely available. Policymakers must therefore overhaul defensive strategies and intelligence assessments, as current evaluation methods are insufficient to gauge the true scope of the emerging AI-driven cyber risk.
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The report assesses that Large Language Model (LLM) Agents pose an emerging biosecurity risk by potentially lowering the domain expertise barrier needed to select and operate sophisticated biological tools (BTs). While frontier LLMs demonstrate initial capability in identifying appropriate BTs, their ability to execute complex, contextualized tasks or maintain consistent operation is mixed and prone to errors. This suggests that non-expert malicious actors could gain access to dangerous biosecurity pathways. Policymakers must prioritize targeted research into the technical barriers at the intersection of AI and biotechnology to develop robust safeguards against misuse in biological weapons development.
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The rapid expansion of AI data centers creates immense power demands that threaten U.S. grid reliability and capacity. RAND analyzed critical electrical equipment across generation, transmission, and backup systems, finding that supply chain vulnerabilities are a major constraint on meeting future energy needs. The research found that generation components exhibit systematically higher vulnerability scores than standardized transmission parts, with risks varying significantly by specific component (e.g., market concentration vs. volume volatility). Consequently, policymakers must implement highly tailored supply chain resilience strategies and targeted interventions for each vulnerable component to ensure AI development can proceed without critical infrastructure bottlenecks.
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21.Looking Beyond the Government’s Regulatory Toolkit: Early Findings on How Business and Civil Society Actors Can Help Manage and Mitigate Transformative Artificial Intelligence Risks and Impacts (RAND)
This RAND report argues that managing the risks of transformative AI requires non-governmental actors to take a proactive role complementary to government regulation. The analysis develops a framework identifying three key roles for business and civil society: managing technical operational risks (e.g., pre-deployment testing); shaping market incentives through procurement and insurance; and supporting social stability via workforce transition planning. By detailing these actions, the report provides actionable strategies that can raise industry safety standards and build public trust in AI systems, effectively establishing a 'plumbing' for safety ahead of formal policy implementation.
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22.Cultivating a Warrior Ethos in the Air Force: Strategies for Developing Airminded Warriors in Initial Training (RAND)
RAND recommends that the U.S. Air Force adopt a holistic framework to cultivate a unified 'Airminded Warrior' identity, arguing that single changes to basic training are insufficient for success. Drawing on lessons from sister services, the report identifies three reinforcing pillars—"Tell," "Show," and "Do"—to institutionalize service ethos within initial training. Key evidence gathered from interviews with military personnel highlights that developing this identity requires consistently linking individual roles across all career fields to the overarching airpower mission. Policymakers should implement these multi-faceted strategies, ensuring that physical environments, uniform symbolism, and routine habits reinforce a broad sense of shared service identity rather than just functional expertise.
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The Commerce Department's decision to award SandboxAQ a $500 million CHIPS grant while simultaneously securing a minority equity stake and royalty rights is criticized as an overreach of federal power. While the administration justifies this intervention using supply chain resilience arguments, critics argue that the company is already well-capitalized, making government ownership unnecessary and fiscally irresponsible. This pattern of granting equity stakes exceeds the scope of existing legislation and risks creating conflicts of interest and political favoritism rather than genuinely securing critical technology supplies. The move suggests a strategic effort by the administration to build a controllable federal investment portfolio, potentially undermining private sector innovation under the guise of industrial policy.
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The RAND report analyzes the growing interest in psychedelics among U.S. veterans, finding that nearly one in four support legal psilocybin use for mental health treatment. This increased acceptance is driven by the high prevalence of conditions like PTSD among service members and a general desire for advanced therapeutic options. Veterans show strong policy support for the VA to provide or pay for psychedelics-assisted therapy (e.g., 54% for psilocybin), contingent on FDA approval. Policymakers must address veteran concerns regarding potential loss of VA benefits while navigating accelerating federal and state efforts to legalize and research these substances.
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The CATO analysis argues that while the proposed Great American Artificial Intelligence Act (GAAIA) addresses innovation and risk management, it critically fails to provide meaningful protections for free speech against government overreach. Concerns center on vague provisions, the threat of arbitrary executive actions like export controls (citing Anthropic's shutdown), and how voluntary standards could lead to 'collateral censorship.' For policy improvement, the author recommends replacing studies with direct anti-jawboning policies, implementing stronger preemption to prevent state law fragmentation, and restricting executive authority to safeguard AI development and speech rights.
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26.The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s Approach to Maintenance Management: Cooking Dumplings in a Teapot (RAND)
The PLAN is rapidly modernizing its fleet and will adopt a hybrid maintenance strategy to sustain its growing inventory of advanced combatants. While promoting self-sufficiency through series production, the analysis finds that organic units still rely on higher echelons for sophisticated repairs, creating logistical strain. This rapid buildup complicates maintenance pipelines and places immense stress on the workforce due to both technological complexity and sheer volume of new assets. Strategically, these challenges suggest that while the PLAN is improving its processes, maintaining efficiency and managing skill gaps will be critical points of vulnerability in future competition.
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The proposed FY27 National Defense Authorization Act authorizes a substantial, historic increase in defense spending to maintain American deterrence against a complex global threat environment. This funding is justified by the rise of an 'axis of aggressors' (including China, Russia, and Iran) and the shift toward sophisticated, remote warfare utilizing AI, space weapons, and cognitive conflict. Strategically, the NDAA mandates modernizing military capabilities by shoring up traditional platforms while aggressively adopting emerging technologies. Furthermore, the legislation includes reforms designed to streamline Pentagon budgeting, ensuring that increased investment is efficiently allocated for 21st-century readiness.
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28.Personnel Vetting 101 Applicant Toolkit: Frequently Asked Questions and Common Misperceptions (RAND)
This RAND toolkit clarifies the complex, multi-layered U.S. government personnel vetting process, which determines an individual's suitability for everything from general employment to access to classified national security information. The guidance distinguishes between Suitability (general federal roles), Fitness (noncompetitive service/contractors), and Security Clearance eligibility, emphasizing that all USG employees undergo some form of vetting. A key finding is the absolute requirement for full transparency: applicants must answer every question completely and truthfully, as omitting or misrepresenting information constitutes a severe breach of trust. For policy makers, this underscores the need for standardized communication to ensure personnel are fully aware of the rigorous standards required to maintain employment eligibility and national security access.
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Quantum technologies represent a critical national security inflection point, capable of breaking current global encryption standards and enabling advanced military capabilities like GPS-denied navigation. The threat is immediate, as adversaries, particularly China, are already harvesting encrypted data today while rapidly developing local quantum systems to circumvent US technological dominance. Policy must urgently mandate the transition of all critical infrastructure to quantum-resistant cryptography globally, secure the domestic 'quantum stack' through export controls, and develop contingency plans for potential early decryption of historical secrets.
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The Great American Artificial Intelligence Act (GAAIA) proposes a comprehensive federal framework to govern AI, establishing standards through mandated transparency reporting and independent oversight. Key mechanisms include creating the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI), which will conduct third-party evaluations of both domestic and foreign models, thereby stabilizing the rapidly evolving industry. This structure aims to shift governance toward voluntary industry self-regulation by forcing developers to document risks and intended uses. Strategically, GAAIA seeks to solidify US leadership in the global AI market by ensuring that national standards are advanced through international cooperation and standard-setting fora.
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31.Insights and Tools to Improve the Applicant Experience with the Personnel Vetting and Security Clearance Process (RAND)
The report argues that while personnel vetting is critical for national security, its current design overly emphasizes risk management at the expense of the applicant experience. Key evidence shows that inconsistent, unclear, or incomplete official guidance creates confusion, frustration, and mistrust among qualified applicants. To improve both security and talent acquisition, policy must treat vetting as a dual function: both a protective measure and a critical workforce process. Adopting a customer service mindset and improving communication transparency will make the process more intuitive, thereby strengthening trust and enhancing the USG's ability to attract trusted personnel.
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32.Understanding Partner Preferences in the Selection of Defense Capabilities: Case Studies Exploring the Selection of Alternatives to U.S. Solutions (RAND)
The report argues that while the U.S. remains a dominant defense supplier, partner nations are increasingly selecting non-U.S. alternatives due to complex motivations beyond mere cost or functionality. Analysis of eight case studies demonstrates that purchasing decisions are driven by strategic considerations, such as enhancing regional autonomy, strengthening ties with specific allies (e.g., Japan or Korea), and responding to perceived local vulnerabilities. For U.S. policy, the findings imply a need for greater anticipatory engagement; rather than solely focusing on sales, the U.S. should prioritize building trilateral partnerships, offering production licensing incentives, and adapting its security cooperation strategy to remain relevant when direct solutions are unavailable.
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Brookings research reveals a strong correlation between counties with high AI automation exposure and Democratic voting in 2024, with 62 of the 100 most AI-exposed counties voting blue. AI exposure concentrates in white-collar information work (programming, marketing, analysis) predominantly located in urban, Democratic-leaning areas. The analysis suggests workers in these AI-exposed blue counties face heightened economic anxiety about job displacement, positioning AI as a potentially divisive policy issue in upcoming elections, particularly in highly exposed blue states like California and Massachusetts.
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France's 2026 G7 presidency, designed around economic resilience and reduced dependence on China, faces disruption from geopolitical shocks (Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure) and Trump's unpredictable 'America First' agenda. While Trump's priorities on economic security and critical supply chains partially align with French goals, significant divisions persist on Ukraine, trade, digital sovereignty, and climate policy—driving other G7 members to coordinate more independently. Macron's success may be measured less by advancing his formal agenda than by preventing mounting tensions from fracturing the fragile G7 coalition.
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The article argues that recess is essential for cognitive development and emotional regulation, supported by scientific consensus and international examples where high-performing school systems prioritize frequent breaks—Finland provides 75 minutes daily, while Shanghai limits lessons to 35 minutes with regular breaks. U.S. policy has neglected recess since "No Child Left Behind," leaving American children with only 26 minutes daily. A critical equity gap exists: students in high-poverty schools and students of color—those most needing recess's benefits—are most likely denied it. While state mandates improve outcomes (1.8x more likely to provide recommended recess), weak enforcement limits effectiveness, as demonstrated by Georgia's failed 2022-23 law. Effective policy requires state-level mandates with anti-punitive protections, compliance monitoring, and investment in play spaces, particularly in underserved schools.
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Iran has developed an effective information campaign using culturally savvy memes, AI-generated videos, and sarcastic social media posts that exploit weaknesses in traditional U.S. counter-messaging approaches. Official Iranian accounts generated massive engagement (900 million views in 50 days), particularly through Lego-style AI videos depicting Iranian military victories and U.S. humiliation, demonstrating that entertainment-focused content is harder to counter than traditional deceptive propaganda since one cannot fact-check a joke. To respond, the U.S. should build real-time threat intelligence from AI labs, disrupt covert networks while accepting open messaging, leverage information about Iranian repression, and renew public service media to rebuild soft power—while avoiding the reputational costs of covert influence operations.
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The article argues that artificial intelligence's concentration in the Global North—where 75% of new data center capacity is being built and advanced economies score double the AI readiness of low-income countries—threatens to widen global inequality unless addressed through deliberate policy intervention. The Global South generates vast data streams yet lacks local infrastructure to process them, resulting in 'digital extractivism' where value accrues abroad. Solutions include South-South cooperation, leveraging renewable energy advantages, building sovereign digital public infrastructure models (like India's subsidized GPU access for startups), and redefining global AI governance to center rather than marginalize the Global South. Without strategic action, this divide will harden into structural inequality; with proper intervention, Global South countries can leapfrog legacy systems and shape AI's future.
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The United States is losing soft power, trust with allies, and control over the global security agenda, directly constraining military operations and strategic deterrence. Allies are denying U.S. access to bases, airspace, and intelligence sharing, while new security partnerships form without American involvement. Depleted munitions from recent conflicts and competing budget demands force difficult trade-offs between emerging technologies and traditional military capabilities. U.S. defense policy must pursue asymmetric competition, disciplined innovation, and diplomatic engagement to restore allied relationships and avoid overstretch.
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This CFR panel examines how artificial intelligence and autonomous drone systems are fundamentally reshaping modern military conflict, with particular focus on the Iran context. Expert speakers—including former DoD AI leaders and warfare technology specialists—discuss how these technologies are transforming battlefield dynamics and strategic doctrine. The panelists address the critical policy implication: the limits of existing international law and norms in governing AI-enabled autonomous warfare, raising questions about future conflict regulation and deterrence strategies.
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Pope Leo XIV's encyclical 'Magnifica Humanitas' establishes a moral framework for AI development, warning against technocratic concentration of power and emphasizing human dignity. Using biblical metaphors of the Tower of Babel (centralized, homogenizing control) versus Nehemiah (distributed, accountable construction), the document argues that AI is inherently extractive and non-neutral, requiring governance guardrails beyond corporate 'AI for good' rhetoric. Brookings experts emphasize that technical standards alone are insufficient—AI systems encode societal biases and disproportionately impact marginalized communities, requiring diverse stakeholder participation in development. The encyclical shifts global governance conversations from 'winning the AI race' to ensuring technology serves humanity, influencing both EU enforcement approaches and US voluntary frameworks. Effective implementation requires political will, inclusive development practices, and accountability structures that give communities genuine agency over technologies affecting their lives.
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The U.S. defense industrial base faces critical vulnerabilities requiring integration of emerging technologies (AI, quantum computing, autonomous systems) while maintaining conventional munitions production—a challenge complicated by China's control of critical minerals and rare-earth supply chains and eroded domestic manufacturing capacity. While bipartisan policy initiatives like the National Defense Industrial Strategy show progress, Washington must prioritize rapid technology integration, increase domestic production capacity through advanced manufacturing investments, secure multiyear funding certainty, and aggressively reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. The article emphasizes that a resilient defense industrial base is essential for deterrence and rapid wartime mobilization, requiring direct government investment, workforce development, and stronger defense industrial cooperation with allies.
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The UN's new Scientific Panel on AI aims to provide governments with credible, independent evidence for AI policymaking, but must navigate a delicate balance between scientific rigor and political legitimacy. Unlike predecessors like the IPCC, the panel produces annual reports while remaining independent from governments and the fragmented UN system, all while defining its own procedures—creating structural challenges including vague mandates and some panel experts' ties to major tech firms. Led by Nobel laureate Maria Ressa and Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio, the panel combines frontier technological expertise with societal impact analysis across diverse regions and disciplines. Success depends on the panel's first annual report demonstrating transparency, independence, and rigorous methods; if it fails to establish authority, no equivalent institution exists to anchor global AI governance. The decisions made now will determine whether the panel effectively guides global AI policy or becomes another science-policy interface that lost credibility through imbalance.
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43.Reimagining the global education agenda: What we heard from the education community across 6 continents (Brookings)
The Brookings Global Listening Survey of 308 education professionals across 64 countries documents a historic contraction in international education aid (ODA down 23.1% in 2025; education aid projected to fall 25% by 2027) that is halting programs and cutting services, but also creating an opportunity to restructure inequitable international cooperation. Respondents, predominantly from Global South civil society organizations, call for "South-to-South" collaboration and shifting power from donors to recipient countries, with flexible multi-year funding that reaches marginalized communities. Current priorities include foundational learning, teacher training, and workforce development, with EdTech, AI, and climate education expected to dominate post-2030 agendas. The survey emphasizes that future global education strategy must be co-created with communities and youth, not imposed by donors, fundamentally shifting the relationship between development institutions and education actors.
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Trump's NSPM-11 directs accelerated AI adoption in national security agencies while maintaining safeguards through contracts and in-house testing, treating speed and accountability as joint requirements. The memo reflects an 'assured intelligence model' that manages U.S. dependence on frontier AI by building government leverage through competitive vendor relationships and strict control over deployed systems, directly responding to the Pentagon-Anthropic dispute over autonomous weapons use. A critical unresolved tension concerns who holds authority to set legal boundaries on AI use—the labs, executive branch, courts, or Congress. The CFR experts recommend Congress codify safeguarding mechanisms into defense legislation, though implementation credibility remains questioned given concerns about executive power constraints.
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The Heritage Foundation argues that Congress must urgently reform federal permitting systems to accelerate domestic energy production, citing that electricity demand will grow 25% by 2030 while current regulations like NEPA, the Endangered Species Act, and the Clean Water Act have become tools for activist litigation rather than environmental protection. The article contends that permitting delays—exemplified by the Mountain Valley Pipeline's 9-year approval timeline—artificially constrain energy supply, driving up household utility costs and inflation across the entire economy. Proposed reforms include establishing firm timelines on environmental reviews, closing litigation loopholes, and streamlining approvals for low-impact projects. The author frames energy security as critical to U.S. national security, economic stability, and geopolitical competitiveness against China and dependency on hostile nations like Russia and Iran.
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Under Xi Jinping, China has fundamentally shifted its techno-industrial strategy from prioritizing growth and catch-up to emphasizing national security, technological self-reliance, and frontier technology leadership through five integrated policy channels—fiscal instruments, financial mechanisms, real economy levers, Party-firm coordination, and overseas initiatives. The Party-state has centralized control and moved from direct subsidies to market-based but politically-directed mechanisms (tax incentives, credit guidance, mandates, capital market reforms) due to tightening fiscal constraints. Although generating impressive technological capabilities and manufacturing scale in priority sectors, the system faces structural tensions: centralization risks suppressing the local experimentation that historically drove innovation, politicized capital allocation may degrade economic efficiency, and mandates spread compliance costs to firms while underlying productivity and demand remain weak. China's unprecedented manufacturing trade surplus is generating growing international friction, compounded by real exchange rate depreciation and industrial policy subsidies that force trading partners to absorb adjustment costs. The policy's long-term effectiveness depends on resolving the central paradox: the centralization needed for strategic focus may simultaneously erode the decentralized competition and local dynamism that enabled China's prior rapid industrial development.
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Government ownership stakes in AI companies—whether through Trump's equity partnerships or Sanders's proposed sovereign wealth fund—would create dangerous conflicts of interest between the government's regulatory role and shareholder incentives, potentially stifling competition and enabling government control over algorithms and user data. The article argues such ownership raises constitutional takings concerns, risks government picking winners at a critical early stage of AI development (comparable to backing MySpace or Yahoo in 1996), and could compromise free expression and privacy protections. Instead, policymakers should adopt a light-touch regulatory framework that keeps government as a neutral regulator, maintains low barriers to entry, addresses underlying labor and infrastructure concerns through targeted policy tools, and allows competition and innovation to drive AI development.
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RAND proposes the Flagpole to Front Lines (F2FL) framework to replace the outdated JCIDS military requirements process, emphasizing problem-centric innovation over technology-driven acquisition. F2FL traces national security objectives through operational tasks to specific capability requirements using iterative agile sprints (conceptualize, build, finalize), creating transparent linkage and reducing bureaucratic complexity. By identifying operational problems first and enabling early industry collaboration, the approach accelerates capability delivery while maintaining strategic coherence. This is particularly relevant to the complex security environment the U.S. faces, including Indo-Pacific deterrence and homeland defense priorities outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy.
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49.Navigating Duality in Space: Establishing a Foundational Understanding of Dual-Use Space Activities (RAND)
Space systems increasingly serve both civilian and military functions, creating ambiguity that could lead to dangerous misinterpretations and escalation. RAND's three-year study found that stakeholders broadly recognize most space systems as dual-use, but no universal definition exists and nations lack explicit governance frameworks—most relying on implicit or ambiguous policies. The report recommends stakeholders adopt behavior-based governance frameworks focused on observable actions rather than intent, include diverse stakeholders in framework development, and address the lag between technological innovation and policy response. Such mechanisms could reduce misperception risks while enabling continued technological advancement in space capabilities.
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50.Is There a Federal AI Framework? What the Obernolte-Trahan Bill Means for the AI Policy Debate (CATO)
The Obernolte-Trahan bill establishes a Congressional framework for federal AI policy, addressing the inadequacy of fragmented state regulations and temporary executive orders. The author advocates for a light-touch approach that treats AI as a general-purpose technology, using existing regulations and narrow safeguards for specific concerns like cybersecurity rather than prescriptive rules, drawing parallels to internet-era deregulation that enabled US digital leadership. The framework should prevent state patchwork while improving AI literacy and protecting civil rights and government use of AI. This Congressional approach aims to balance innovation with targeted protections, avoiding overly restrictive regulations that could inhibit beneficial future developments.
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The RAND–Oxford report argues that the U.S. and UK must establish coordinated bilateral frameworks to secure frontier AI systems against sophisticated nation-state threats. Current AI lab defenses are insufficient against advanced state actors, though both countries possess deep expertise in protecting critical technologies. The report proposes a cluster-based framework organizing AI security into five interconnected domains—access controls, supply chain, monitoring/response, personnel security, and physical security—enabling risk-informed, modular implementation without requiring wholesale industry restructuring. Key recommendations include establishing joint threat intelligence infrastructure, accelerating hardware security R&D, extending government personnel vetting to labs, coordinating supply-chain security, expanding red-teaming, conducting joint crisis exercises, and establishing common security standards.
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This article argues that large language models frequently project unwarranted certainty about contested scientific questions, particularly in public health debates. Using 7-hydroxymitragynine (7-OH), an alkaloid in kratom, as a case study, the author demonstrates how AI systems confidently describe it as a highly potent opioid with serious overdose risks, while recent scientific literature reveals ongoing debate about its pharmacology and safety profile—with evidence suggesting more complex, atypical receptor signaling and rare fatal overdoses. LLMs are trained to provide confident syntheses rather than distinguish between settled science and ongoing controversies, risking the amplification of moral panics around emerging substances. The author argues against regulatory approaches to resolve scientific disagreement and instead advocates for transparency about uncertainty, continued open debate, and scrutiny of confident claims from all sources. Policymakers considering substance restrictions should recognize that today's scientific controversy may become tomorrow's accepted therapy.
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This Brookings report argues that AI's impact on economic mobility is complex, presenting both opportunities to boost productivity and potential risks of exacerbating existing inequalities. The analysis draws parallels with previous technological shifts, highlighting how automation and digitalization have historically created both wealth and displacement. The report emphasizes the need for proactive policies to ensure AI benefits are broadly distributed, particularly focusing on retraining programs and adapting social safety nets. Ultimately, the authors suggest a strategic approach is crucial to harness AI's potential while mitigating negative economic consequences.
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54.With new funding, NSF’s Regional Innovation Engines are attempting to expand emerging clusters (Brookings)
The National Science Foundation’s Regional Innovation Engines are receiving expanded funding – $45 million over three years – to bolster existing clusters and expand their reach across the U.S., driven by concerns about declining U.S. leadership in key technologies and recent disruptions highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events. The program, part of the CHIPS and Science Act, aims to foster place-based innovation by accelerating technology commercialization and creating self-sustaining regional economies. Evidence suggests a growing consensus that geographic concentration of innovation poses risks to knowledge spillovers and national competitiveness, necessitating a broader distribution of innovation hubs. This expansion aligns with broader White House initiatives to scale regional innovation ecosystems and bolster domestic technology innovation.
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The new AI Cyber Executive Order adopts a 'light-touch' regulatory approach, confirming the administration's preference for fostering AI innovation and maintaining a competitive edge against China over implementing strict controls. This is evidenced by the EO's voluntary provisions and the apparent influence of major tech developers, who are driving the pace of advanced cyber capabilities. Strategically, this reluctance to regulate risks undermining U.S. AI dominance by ignoring widespread public skepticism and the general desire for federal oversight, suggesting a need for policy that better balances industry freedom with public trust.
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56.
The Brookings study, "Mind the Gap," reveals that the U.S. is outpacing Europe in AI adoption primarily due to a combination of factors: a younger, more tech-focused workforce and proactive support for AI experimentation within U.S. firms. Researchers surveyed U.S. and European firms to understand the differing adoption rates, finding that these two elements – workforce composition and organizational support – accounted for nearly all of the observed gap. While this adoption has yielded a small productivity advantage, it hasn't yet impacted employment levels. This divergence highlights the importance of both human capital and managerial strategies in driving technological innovation.
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57.
The UAE is pursuing an increasingly independent strategy in the region, demonstrated by its unilateral strike on Iranian-controlled facilities and subsequent withdrawal from OPEC, signaling a desire to be recognized as a leading global power. This approach is driven by a belief that closer ties with Israel, a divergence from regional norms, and alignment with the United States will bolster security and influence. Evidence of this strategy includes its support for the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan and its expanding economic footprint in Africa through companies like DP World, despite criticism and intervention from neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia. Ultimately, the UAE’s gamble on autonomy risks isolating itself from traditional Gulf partners while relying heavily on key alliances.
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58.
CATO’s analysis of the Trump Administration’s executive order on AI and cybersecurity reveals a strategy focused on bolstering national resilience against emerging cyber threats posed by advanced AI models like Anthropic’s Mythos and OpenAI’s GPT 5.5. The order mandates a 30-day pre-deployment testing process, overseen by the NSA, to identify and assess these models, alongside establishing an ‘AI cybersecurity clearinghouse’ to coordinate vulnerability scanning. Key actions include strengthening the Department of Defense’s information systems and directing CISA to issue binding operational directives for civilian cybersecurity. While intended to foster AI dominance and improve cyber readiness, the order’s opacity and potential for government overreach raise concerns about stifling innovation and transparency. Ultimately, the initiative represents a reactive, defense-oriented approach to managing AI risks.
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59.Verified Machine Learning Infrastructure: Formal Methods for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence Deployment (RAND)
The RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the rapid advancement of frontier AI capabilities by late 2026 necessitates immediate action to secure the underlying machine learning infrastructure. Utilizing formal methods – mathematical techniques for software verification – offers a potential solution to bolster the security of AI systems before these capabilities become fully operational. The report identifies key vulnerabilities within AI inference and training stacks and highlights the urgency driven by converging cyber threats. Recommendations are offered for a collaborative roadmap involving AI labs, formal methods experts, hardware vendors, and government agencies to establish verified machine learning infrastructure.
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60.
This CATO analysis argues that Donald Trump’s aggressive pursuit of government ownership stakes in private companies, particularly through his executive order and subsequent investments, has paved the way for Senator Bernie Sanders’s proposal for an American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund. The plan, mirroring Trump’s approach, involves a tax on AI companies resulting in federal ownership and board representation to exert political control. Critics highlight the inherent conflict of interest given the government’s existing regulatory role over these companies and draw parallels to problematic models like Norway’s wealth fund, which relies on government-controlled resource revenues. Ultimately, the article suggests this trend represents a dangerous expansion of state power and could be exploited by either party, as evidenced by the bipartisan support for similar initiatives during the CHIPS Act debate.
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61.
The article argues against the narrative of the ‘end of foreign aid,’ contending that reduced funding will hinder development progress. Evidence presented highlights the catastrophic impact of aid cuts on global health, with projections indicating a 200,000 increase in child deaths in 2025 due to reduced health assistance. Despite significant progress in poverty reduction and improved health outcomes over the past two decades – including halving extreme poverty and dramatically decreasing deaths from diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria – global aid funding remains substantially lower. The authors advocate for a shift towards empowering developing nations through targeted investments in local capacity building, aiming to eventually make aid unnecessary. This approach should focus on sustainable growth and human potential within recipient countries.
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62.
The article argues that the current focus on 'middle power' autonomy and a multipolar world is a delusion, as these states are not gaining power but are becoming more exposed. Historically, middle powers thrived under the shelter of great power competition and stable globalization; however, the increasing predatory nature of the US and China—using tech restrictions and supply chain controls—is making 'hedging' nearly impossible. Consequently, states must abandon the fantasy of free agency and instead pursue strategic alignment with a great-power system that offers the best protection, while simultaneously building robust national strength within that chosen coalition.
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63.
The proliferation of AI across borders, coupled with a fragmented patchwork of national governance standards, creates significant risks of cross-border harms, such as misdiagnosis in the Global South or human rights abuses in asylum systems. This regulatory divergence—seen in varied domestic models from Singapore to the US—undermines the capacity for shared rules and accountability when transnational harms occur. Consequently, the article argues that the United Nations is uniquely positioned to serve as a central coordinating body. For global stability, the UN must build transboundary agreements and enforceable legal instruments to ensure AI is deployed equitably and responsibly, making its leadership crucial for the future of international governance.
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64.
Europe is undergoing a significant military rearmament effort, with NATO allies committing to higher defense spending and Germany dramatically increasing its budget, suggesting a strong capacity to deter Russian aggression. However, this military surge is offset by profound economic and geopolitical challenges, including low productivity, energy crises, and a widening technological gap with the US and China. Consequently, the analysis concludes that Europe will become increasingly inward-looking, capable of defending itself regionally but losing global geoeconomic influence. This trajectory presents a mixed blessing for the US, as a self-sufficient but non-projecting Europe risks becoming a less reliable and more vulnerable ally.
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65.
The consensus among global policy experts is that the post-WWII rules-based international order is experiencing structural fatigue, necessitating a reordering of global governance. Key evidence points to the limitations of traditional multilateral institutions in addressing modern, complex challenges like climate change and AI, leading states to prioritize outcomes over mere processes. Consequently, the strategic implication is a shift away from universal institutions toward 'coalitions of the willing' or open plurilateralism. Future international cooperation will therefore be built on flexible alliances that combine shared values with specific, tangible national interests, allowing middle powers greater autonomy in global decision-making.
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66.
The article argues that Kevin Warsh's tenure will focus on restoring the Fed's independence and adherence to its core mandate of price stability. While Warsh aims to revert to a strict 2% inflation target and reduce the Fed's balance sheet, his efforts are constrained by persistent inflationary risks, particularly those stemming from geopolitical conflicts and supply shocks. Policymakers must recognize that any shifts in U.S. interest rates will have immediate and significant ripple effects across global financial markets, requiring careful monitoring of the Fed's policy trajectory.
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67.
Global efforts to govern AI are proliferating across numerous international summits, making the UN's Global Dialogue a critical test of multilateral legitimacy. While these forums have generated high-level commitments, the UN offers a unique universal platform appealing to developing nations seeking inclusive governance and preventing technological dependencies. The article warns that if the UN fails to coordinate, AI governance will fragment into incompatible national and regional policies. This fragmentation will lead to normative competition, allowing powerful states and economic blocs to set rules that increase transboundary risk and diminish global accountability.
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68.
The article argues that treating arms sales to Taiwan as a negotiating chip with China is a strategic error that severely weakens regional deterrence. Providing advanced, asymmetric weaponry is critical for maintaining peace by raising the cost of potential Chinese aggression and upholding the bipartisan consensus. Pausing these sales undermines the Taiwan Relations Act, erodes U.S. credibility among allies, and fuels skepticism regarding American commitment to the island. Therefore, the U.S. must swiftly approve the pending arms package to maintain a credible deterrent and stabilize the Taiwan Strait.
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69.
Indian states are aggressively implementing specialized industrial and digital policies to attract foreign direct investment and modernize infrastructure. Key initiatives include Haryana's comprehensive policies for AI, data centers, and pharmaceuticals, alongside Rajasthan's focus on semiconductors and defense manufacturing. This decentralized policy push signals a major national effort to build resilient, future-oriented economic clusters across diverse sectors. Strategically, this indicates that foreign investment targeting India must be highly sector-specific and tailored to the incentives offered by individual state governments.
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70.States of Affordability: A series on where and why US households struggle to make ends meet (Brookings)
The Brookings report identifies a deep, structural affordability crisis, noting that nearly half of U.S. households struggle to cover basic necessities, a trend that is persistent and varies significantly by state, county, and race. The core finding is that the problem is not uniform, requiring tailored solutions that address localized disparities and racial inequities. The report attributes this strain to structural imbalances, specifically the failure of productivity gains to translate into broad wage growth, while costs for housing, healthcare, and childcare continue to rise rapidly. Policy recommendations emphasize that mitigating the crisis requires a two-pronged approach: implementing structural reforms to lower essential costs and enacting policies that boost wages and create good, accessible jobs.
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71.
The Brookings analysis concludes that the Trump-Xi summit was largely an exercise in optics, lacking concrete deliverables or substantive agreements. Key evidence points to significant discrepancies between the official readouts, with the U.S. emphasizing trade and rare earths while China focused on 'constructive strategic stability' and the need for caution regarding Taiwan. This divergence suggests that the relationship is moving toward separate, uncoordinated diplomatic statements rather than joint communiques. Policymakers should interpret this as a structural cooling of the bilateral relationship, where competition and differing national priorities are beginning to outweigh efforts at cooperation.
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72.
U.S.-India relations have matured significantly from a history marked by Cold War suspicion and nuclear tensions into a comprehensive strategic partnership. This evolution is evidenced by key milestones, including the 2005 Defense Framework and the 2007 Civil Nuclear Deal, which integrated India into global energy and defense supply chains. The deepening cooperation across economic, military, and energy sectors signals a major shift in U.S. foreign policy focus. Strategically, this robust partnership makes India a critical pillar of U.S. Indo-Pacific policy, ensuring stability and countering regional geopolitical challenges.
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73.
The Middle East's regional center of gravity has shifted decisively from older powers (like Egypt and Iraq) to the Gulf states—specifically Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This shift is underpinned by the Gulf nations' economic diversification, which integrates them into global high-tech and logistics ecosystems, making them less reliant solely on hydrocarbons. The Abraham Accords and the weakening of regional rivals reinforce this trend, solidifying the Gulf's growing influence. Strategically, the outcome of the conflict with Iran is critical: a diminished Tehran accelerates the Gulf states' dominance, while a surviving Iran threatens US interests and could force Washington to significantly reduce its long-term military commitment to the region.
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74.
Global defense spending is entering a new boom phase, driven by geopolitical tensions and the perceived decline of U.S. security guarantees. This rearmament trend is forcing nations, such as Japan, to abandon long-held pacifist doctrines and significantly raise military budgets. However, this massive spending is largely financed through increased borrowing, leading to soaring national debt, inflation, and higher interest rates across rich democracies. Consequently, governments face severe political and economic strain, struggling to balance public demands for affordable goods with the escalating costs of national security, creating major policy spillovers.
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75.
The article argues that global rearmament is poised to become the biggest fiscal stimulus story since the pandemic, fundamentally reshaping global economies and politics. Driven by rising geopolitical tensions (e.g., China, Middle East) and the adoption of advanced technologies like AI, nations are making massive, double-digit increases in defense spending. Because these military buildups are primarily financed through increased borrowing, they are rapidly escalating global government debt and deficits. This fiscal strain is projected to push up interest rates and cause market volatility, creating a difficult dilemma for central banks caught between fighting inflation and financing national defense.
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76.Investigating the potential use of frontier AI models for offensive cyberattacks: A human uplift study (RAND)
The study investigated whether frontier AI models significantly enhance the capability of lower-skilled threat actors in offensive cyber operations. Key findings indicate that while AI access provides suggestive 'onboarding' uplift for novices in basic cyber skills, there is no statistically significant evidence that AI enables the successful completion of complex, end-to-end cyber attack chains. This suggests that the primary barrier to success remains the inherent difficulty of advanced cyber tasks, regardless of AI support. Policymakers must therefore balance the development of advanced AI capabilities with robust security guardrails, recognizing that while novice misuse is a concern, the threat from highly skilled threat actors remains a critical focus for mitigation.
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77.
This RAND report analyzes how tort liability can influence safety practices in high-consequence life sciences research. While existing safety is governed by a complex web of regulations, the study finds that researchers are more aware of compliance rules than the risk of civil litigation, suggesting tort liability is an underutilized incentive. The analysis, which combines legal review and expert interviews, argues that tort liability plays a small but important role in risk reduction by creating high-level accountability. Policymakers should consider modifying the liability structure, such as implementing strict liability, to create stronger, more effective marginal incentives for improved biosafety and risk management in critical biological research.
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78.
North Korea conducted advanced missile tests, showcasing a newly developed lightweight multi-purpose launching system and sophisticated tactical cruise missiles. Key evidence includes the testing of AI-guided, ultra-precision missiles and specialized ballistic warheads, indicating a concerted effort to modernize and enhance the precision and range of its arsenal. Strategically, this rapid military buildup signals an escalating regional threat, necessitating continued high alert and robust combined defense postures from regional allies. Policy responses must focus on deterrence while managing the increasing instability caused by Pyongyang's technical military advancements.
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79.
The article argues that the proposed GUARD Financial Data Act is misguided because its over-regulatory approach undervalues data's utility, particularly in fighting fraud and developing AI services. Key provisions, such as data minimization and the right to deletion, could severely impede anti-fraud measures and innovative credit risk assessments that rely on comprehensive data sets. Furthermore, the Act fails to address the core issue of law enforcement's warrantless access to financial data, and its screen scraping rules create security vulnerabilities. Policymakers should therefore abandon broad federal over-regulation and instead focus on targeting specific, tangible harms caused by bad actors, while reforming law enforcement's data access powers.
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80.China and the U.S. Agreed to ‘Strategic Stability’ in Beijing. They Don’t Define It the Same Way. (CFR)
The Beijing summit did not resolve U.S.-China competition, but instead established a framework of 'mutually useful ambiguity' by having both powers claim 'strategic stability' while defining it differently. The U.S. framed the agreement around transactional, economic deliverables (e.g., trade boards, purchases), while China emphasized a political doctrine centered on respecting its 'core interests' and development path. This fundamental asymmetry means the relationship is defined by managed rivalry, not strategic settlement, leaving critical issues like Taiwan, AI, and overcapacity outside the formal agreements. Policymakers must recognize that the current arrangement is a bargaining mechanism, not a resolution, suggesting continued volatility despite the high-level dialogue.
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81.
The Trump-Xi summit was disappointing for Southeast and South Asia, failing to provide stability on critical issues like the energy crisis or regional security. Regional states are deeply concerned about being excluded from major decisions by a combined US-China framework, particularly regarding the South China Sea and trade. Compounding this geopolitical uncertainty are unresolved issues concerning rare earth controls and AI platforms, which threaten to push the region into a severe economic recession. Consequently, regional powers must urgently accelerate the diversification of trade, energy, and supply chains to mitigate the risks posed by a prolonged, high-stakes US-China rivalry.
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82.
The recent U.S.-China summit failed to yield concrete agreements, signaling a mutual acceptance of the current, complex status quo. While discussions covered geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan and Iran, both sides largely avoided addressing traditional U.S. complaints regarding overcapacity or IP theft, suggesting a withdrawal of structural pressure. The resulting concept of "constructive strategic stability" implies that both nations are prioritizing managing inevitable competition and buying time, rather than attempting fundamental policy changes. This suggests the U.S. has limited leverage to force deep reforms, leading to a realistic, yet challenging, relationship of equals.
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83.
The Trump-Xi summit largely failed to address the structural tensions defining U.S.-China tech competition, which remains the most consequential dynamic. Key evidence shows that critical issues—including advanced semiconductor controls, AI safety, and sophisticated cyber infiltration (e.g., Volt Typhoon)—were only lightly discussed, despite the high-level diplomatic fanfare. Consequently, the analysis suggests that U.S. policy must pivot away from relying on diplomatic de-escalation and instead focus on robust domestic measures, such as enforcing data sovereignty and maintaining technological decoupling, to safeguard national security.
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84.
The exponential advancement of AI is set to make AI policy the most critical issue in the 2028 U.S. election, driven by profound domestic disruptions. Key risks include widespread job displacement, dangerous misuse potential, and the government's ability to conduct unprecedented surveillance. To mitigate the resulting political backlash, policy must proactively address three interconnected pillars: establishing domestic safety regulations, implementing social policies to broadly distribute AI's economic gains, and maintaining global technological leadership. Failure to act now risks a reactive, inadequate policy response that could undermine both American competitiveness and national security, particularly against China.
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85.
The article argues that the United States faces an era of unprecedented global complexity—marked by great power competition, unresolved regional conflicts, and rapid technological shifts (AI)—rendering the current strategic status quo unsustainable. Key evidence includes the heightened geopolitical tension between China and Russia, coupled with global health and economic instability. Despite deep domestic political polarization, the authors note a growing bipartisan consensus that fundamental changes are required for U.S. international leadership. Therefore, the implication is that the U.S. must undertake a comprehensive, 'blue-sky' rethinking of its strategy, moving beyond partisan divides to address systemic global challenges.
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86.
The article argues that the foundational assumptions of U.S. cybersecurity—that attacks are expensive, that identities belong to people, and that human judgment is always present—are rapidly failing due to the diffusion of AI. Evidence includes the rise of automated cyberespionage and the discovery of vulnerabilities at machine speed, which are outpacing traditional defensive patching cycles. Policy-wise, the authors urge a mandatory 'audit of assumptions' across federal and private sectors to identify structural weaknesses before scaling AI, warning that this proactive self-assessment is a critical strategic advantage over competitors like China.
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87.
The Brookings report argues that overreliance on generative AI poses a risk of 'cognitive stunting' in children, a condition where the lack of effortful thinking opportunities prevents the development of essential cognitive skills. This risk is evidenced by the fact that AI allows students to shortcut the necessary struggle and practice required for deep learning, leading to diminished critical thinking and neural engagement. Policy implications suggest that policymakers must treat this issue like physical stunting, necessitating the development of systematic, age-normed measures to track cognitive development in relation to AI use. Ultimately, the report calls for congressional action to establish a clear measurement framework and guide AI developers to support, rather than replace, the learning process.
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88.
The convergence of AI and advanced satellite imagery is ushering in an era of "planetary intelligence," suggesting that the massive computational demands of global data analysis may eventually necessitate space-based data centers. This transformation is underpinned by technological breakthroughs, such as the miniaturization of electronics, which allows for real-time, comprehensive monitoring of Earth's systems. Strategically, this capability enables intervention in human decision-making loops—allowing for immediate responses to climate change, illegal resource extraction, or geopolitical instability. Policymakers must recognize that this shift represents a profound economic and geopolitical inflection point, requiring proactive strategies to mitigate risks like space junk and potential extra-planetary conflict.
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89.UK should not invest in new North Sea oil as it is ‘a price taker, not a price maker’ – Dr Fatih Birol, IEA chief (Chatham House)
Dr. Fatih Birol argues that the UK should abandon plans for new North Sea oil investment, asserting that the nation is a 'price taker' and cannot influence global oil prices. He stresses that the future of UK energy security must be based on electrification, powered by renewables and nuclear sources. Globally, energy stability is severely threatened by geopolitical crises, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and depleting reserves, necessitating a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. Policymakers must therefore pivot toward sustainable electrification while preparing for heightened global inflation and supply shocks.
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90.
The global system is in a 'Gramscian interregnum,' driven by two tectonic shifts: a rapid redistribution of global power from the West to the East and South, and the socioeconomic dislocation caused by the digital age and automation. This confluence of factors is fueling great power competition, unraveling globalized markets, and spiking domestic inequality in developed democracies. For the U.S. to stabilize, its grand strategy must adopt a dual focus: promoting pluralistic cooperation to anchor the transition to a multipolar world, and fundamentally redesigning its social contract to prepare citizens for the digital economy and rebuild the political center.
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91.
The article argues that American global strategy requires a fundamental reevaluation due to a highly contested international environment and deep domestic dissatisfaction. The world is characterized by the decay of the liberal international order, rising power centers, and structural disruptors like AI and climate change. While the U.S. retains significant power, successful strategy must confront internal constraints, such as partisan polarization, recognizing that domestic stability is crucial for foreign leadership. Therefore, the path forward requires creative, multi-faceted ideas that integrate diverse American perspectives and move beyond traditional 'business-as-usual' foreign policy models.
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92.
The article argues that while the U.S. successfully built the durable 'liberal international order' through post-WWII cooperation, the system is now severely strained. Key evidence points to domestic political polarization, economic inequality, and the failure of the established framework to adequately address modern, rapid challenges like AI and climate change. For policy, the implication is that the U.S. must fundamentally rethink its global strategy, moving beyond simply repeating the successful 'team sport' model to adapt the core elements of the order while integrating new, complex global issues.
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93.
The article argues that the Trump administration is expanding its reach into private technology sectors, exemplified by the Commerce Department's plan to provide $2 billion in federal incentives to quantum computing firms in exchange for minority equity stakes. The author contends that this pattern is not legitimate investment but an improvised effort to create a pseudo-sovereign wealth fund under executive control. This practice is criticized for distorting competition, politicizing private investment, and undermining American capitalism by building a patronage market through government ownership by press release. The policy implication is that such federal overreach risks misallocating taxpayer capital and giving political officials undue influence over critical private industries.
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94.Qualified Medical Evaluators and the Medical-Legal Process in California Workers' Compensation (RAND)
This RAND analysis assesses the sustainability and efficiency of California's Qualified Medical Evaluator (QME) system, which is critical for resolving workers' compensation disputes. Key findings reveal structural challenges, including supply/demand mismatches, difficulties in medical record delivery, and concerns regarding the current reimbursement structure. To improve the system's quality and sustainability, the report recommends structural reforms, such as implementing centralized electronic record repositories and adjusting fee schedules to better support QMEs and the overall medical-legal process.
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95.
The analysis concludes that China will hold the upper hand at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, leveraging its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains. This geopolitical leverage, combined with global instability (such as the Iran conflict), allows Beijing to dictate terms and buy time to consolidate its technological and industrial self-sufficiency. Strategically, the U.S. must avoid granting China a managed equilibrium by maintaining 'maximum pressure' on key sectors like AI and tech, rather than seeking broad agreements that could undermine American leadership.
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96.
The U.S.-China trade relationship remains defined by intense competition, characterized by persistent tariffs and tech export controls, despite temporary truces. While the conflict is driven by concerns over trade imbalances and China's adherence to global rules, the two economies remain deeply interdependent, making complete decoupling highly unlikely. Policy efforts are shifting away from achieving a definitive 'win' and toward managing this complex interdependence. Strategically, the U.S. must navigate the tension between protecting critical domestic industries and maintaining necessary global supply chains, suggesting a need for formalized mechanisms to manage future trade agreements.
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97.
The US faces an inherent policy tension regarding Chinese clean energy investment: balancing the necessity of Chinese technology to accelerate domestic energy deployment against critical national security risks, such as supply chain over-dependence and data vulnerability. While China provides essential low-cost inputs for reindustrialization, current policies are often a chaotic patchwork of tariffs and screening rules that lack technological specificity. Policymakers must clarify their long-term national objectives—whether pursuing full domestic self-sufficiency or managed partnership—and adopt nuanced, technology-specific strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach to mitigate risks effectively.
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98.
The Trump-Xi summit achieved a delicate détente, establishing a baseline of 'decent peace' that prioritizes stability and commercial cooperation over major geopolitical breakthroughs. Key evidence includes agreements on energy, trade (e.g., Boeing aircraft, Nvidia chips), and regional issues like the Strait of Hormuz, while China repeatedly emphasized Taiwan as the most critical issue for future stability. Strategically, the relationship is now defined by managed competition, with the pending $14 billion arms package to Taiwan serving as the most consequential test of this new, fragile truce. The outcome of this arms deal, and whether it is used as a bargaining chip, will determine the limits of the current détente.
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99.
The CFR argues that any US-China dialogue on AI safety must be narrowly scoped and coupled with a 'maximum pressure' campaign. Because China views AI cooperation primarily as a means to close its technological gap, the US cannot rely on Beijing's good faith and must maintain a significant technological lead. The recommended strategy is to tighten export controls to widen the US-China AI capability gap, thereby eliminating China's leverage and forcing Beijing to prioritize global AI safety. This approach preserves US leadership while creating the necessary structural conditions for long-term, enforceable safety agreements.
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100.
The Brookings analysis argues that the US and China can cooperate on mitigating shared AI risks—specifically those posed by nonstate actors—without compromising their intense technological competition. This cooperation should focus on practical measures, including establishing nonbinding safety guidelines, sharing limited threat intelligence, and creating an emergency communication hotline. Strategically, the US must leverage this dialogue to assert its leadership in global AI governance, preventing China from defining the standards. Failure to coordinate risks could lead to an AI arms race, while the US must also guard against China attempting to establish a 'floor' on American technology controls.
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101.
The recent summit between Trump and Xi Jinping established a period of 'uneasy stability' rather than yielding specific, detailed commitments. Key discussions covered stabilizing trade (agriculture, aerospace), establishing protocols for AI governance, and managing tensions surrounding Taiwan. This tacit truce allows China to consolidate its technological autonomy and strengthen its economic security controls. For the United States and its allies, the implication is a narrow window to build industrial resilience and mitigate geopolitical risks in the face of continued strategic competition.
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102.
India is uniquely positioned to anchor a democratic alternative to China’s authoritarian tech model, leveraging its democratic institutions and massive market to shape global technology norms. The analysis highlights that India’s tech governance remains rooted in the rule of law and pluralistic deliberation, contrasting sharply with state-led authoritarian models. However, the article stresses that India cannot lead alone; effective progress requires coordinated efforts from like-minded democratic powers, particularly the United States, to fill the growing normative vacuum. Strategically, democratic nations must urgently coordinate to establish shared frameworks for AI and data governance, or risk ceding future economic and regulatory influence to China.
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103.
The CFR briefing concludes that the Trump-Xi summit established a fragile, symbolic détente rather than achieving substantive structural reform. This temporary stability is largely predicated on the mutual acknowledgment of critical vulnerabilities, particularly China's control over rare earth minerals and global supply chains, which previously forced a trade truce. While the talks reduced immediate escalation risk, the underlying structural threats—including technology dependence, market access issues, and geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan—remain unaddressed. Policymakers must therefore focus on mitigating these persistent vulnerabilities rather than relying on the diplomatic breakthroughs suggested by the summit.
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104.
The upcoming summit between Xi and Trump is unlikely to result in direct discussions or agreements regarding China's growing nuclear arsenal or US missile defense projects. Instead, the analysis suggests that strategic stability can be advanced by focusing on shared threat assessments in emerging domains, such as artificial intelligence and outer space. Progress can be made by establishing dialogue on AI risks in escalation and reaffirming commitments to keep AI out of nuclear launch decisions. This shift allows the superpowers to build confidence and manage strategic tensions without confronting immediate nuclear limits, thereby providing a pathway for dialogue.
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105.
The concept of mandatory AI licensing and pre-release testing is resurfacing as a critical policy concern, driven by the emergence of highly capable, vulnerable models and renewed political interest in regulation. While the U.S. government is considering an executive order modeled after drug approval processes, the author argues that simply adapting existing regulations is insufficient. For effective policy, the U.S. must craft a framework tailored to AI's unique, continuously evolving nature, focusing heavily on rigorous pre-release evaluation methods. Crucially, any licensing regime must be paired with robust post-market oversight and enforcement mechanisms to manage the risks posed by advanced, rapidly advancing AI systems.
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106.
The Brookings article argues that Donald Trump's ambiguous comments regarding Taiwan—specifically suggesting that U.S. security support is negotiable leverage with China—dangerously undermine decades of established U.S. deterrence policy. By implying that Taiwan must 'cool down' and questioning the necessity of military intervention, Trump signals to Beijing that America's commitment is conditional. This shift from resolute deterrence to dealmaking will not reduce, but rather intensify, Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Therefore, the U.S. must maintain a consistent, unwavering focus on upholding stability in the Taiwan Strait and resist using Taiwan's security status as a bargaining chip with Beijing.
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107.
The article argues that Russia's recent public displays, such as the diminished Victory Day parade, reveal deep structural cracks in its power and stability. Key evidence includes the military hardware's absence, slowing economic growth, and internal security tensions exacerbated by infighting and digital crackdowns. For policy, the analysis suggests that while Russia remains a threat, its declining geopolitical influence, coupled with the strengthening and consolidating hard-power capabilities of Europe and NATO, indicates a long-term erosion of Moscow's global standing.
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108.
U.S. allies are increasing diplomatic and economic ties with China, driven by growing frustration and concerns over the perceived unreliability of the United States as a security and trade partner. Key evidence includes high-level visits from European and Indo-Pacific leaders, resulting in agreements focused on diversifying trade, green energy cooperation, and AI technology. Experts caution that while these moves signal a desire to 'de-risk' and reduce reliance on the U.S., the strategy is largely symbolic and lacks coordinated substance. The primary implication is that allies are adopting an 'a la carte' hedging approach, which grants China increased time and space to build geopolitical leverage with the West.
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109.
The U.S.-China rivalry is defined by a state of 'mutually assured disruption,' where technological competition (semiconductor controls vs. rare earth embargoes) creates an unstable equilibrium. While the U.S. maintains a lead in AI frontier model development, China holds an advantage in deployment speed and cost, suggesting rough parity. Policy efforts should focus on immediate, proactive dialogue regarding AI safety and non-proliferation, drawing parallels to Cold War treaties. Crucially, any safety negotiations must be conducted while simultaneously tightening technological loopholes to maintain strategic leverage and prevent being outmaneuvered.
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110.
The article argues that the concept of great power spheres of influence has evolved beyond traditional military boundaries, now manifesting in functional domains like critical technology and digital infrastructure. This shift allows powerful states, such as China, to consolidate an 'open sphere' by leveraging economic and technological influence, particularly if the United States makes unilateral concessions or is strategically distracted. The author warns that the U.S.'s willingness to make policy concessions regarding Taiwan and its diminishing reliability as a security guarantor could hasten China's consolidation of influence in the Indo-Pacific. Strategically, this necessitates that Washington update its understanding of modern spheres to prevent a major geopolitical division that could escalate into conflict.
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111.
The article argues that corporate America's current silence regarding systemic threats—such as the erosion of the rule of law or the independence of federal institutions—poses a significant risk to democratic capitalism. This quietude contrasts sharply with past corporate activism, as business leaders fear political backlash rather than confronting fundamental institutional assaults. The core finding is that the rule of law and independent agencies (like the Federal Reserve) are the 'sine qua non' of stable economic activity, making their integrity paramount to market function. Policy implication suggests that corporate leaders must coordinate efforts to identify and defend these systemic 'redlines,' ensuring that the foundational laws and norms necessary for commerce remain protected.
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112.
This RAND report develops a scenario-planning framework to analyze the complex future mental health landscape of the UK Armed Forces community through 2045. The analysis identifies key stressors, including the evolving character of conflict, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader societal trends like increased mental health awareness and technological disruption. The core finding is that the sector must move beyond reactive care, requiring proactive, collaborative strategic planning across military, NHS, and third-sector organizations. Ultimately, the report stresses the need for adaptable and resilient support systems to meet the unique and growing mental health needs of personnel and veterans.
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113.Outcome Evaluation of Los Angeles County’s Juvenile Justice Client Assessment Recommendation and Evaluation (CARE) Program (RAND)
The RAND evaluation finds that Los Angeles County's CARE Program provides crucial, holistic support to vulnerable youth in the juvenile justice system, significantly improving their long-term stability and well-being. While the program does not show a statistically significant effect on short-term recidivism, its primary value lies in generating substantial fiscal savings and improving quality-of-life outcomes, such as educational and mental health attainment. To enhance effectiveness and sustainability, the report recommends addressing systemic barriers, including strengthening data systems (e.g., using NLP) and expanding staffing capacity for resource attorneys and social workers. These improvements are critical for maximizing the program's rehabilitative impact and ensuring continued fiscal benefit.
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114.
The RAND assessment concludes that the Department of Defense's Business Enterprise Architecture (DBEA) is struggling to modernize and fulfill its statutory mandate for business process reengineering. Key findings indicate that institutional inertia, overly broad legal specifications, and an incentive structure focused solely on funding information systems are undermining the framework's potential. To achieve true utility, the DoD must pivot its focus from merely funding systems to defining practical, bounded use cases—such as those related to financial audits—to prove the architecture's value. This shift is critical for driving necessary business process improvements and ensuring the DBEA matures into an effective operational tool.
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115.
The article argues that the U.S.-China relationship is defined by a long-term, multifaceted strategic competition, which China views through a historical lens of achieving self-sufficiency and resisting foreign leverage. Beijing's approach is characterized by deep strategic planning, leading it to resist fundamental structural economic changes despite seeking temporary, mutually advantageous agreements. For policy, the analysis warns that the greatest risk lies not in disagreement, but in the misunderstanding or ambiguous interpretation of agreements following high-level summits. Therefore, managing the relationship requires both powers to clearly articulate their core, long-term objectives to prevent temporary stabilization from obscuring deep strategic divergence.
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116.
This CATO analysis warns against a White House proposal to establish a pre-approval system for advanced AI models, framing it as a potential ‘kill switch’ over speech and innovation. The proposal, likened to an ‘FDA for AI,’ would grant the executive branch unprecedented control over the technology, raising concerns about regulatory capture, censorship, and the weaponization of government power. Evidence suggests this initiative is driven by cybersecurity concerns and a desire to retaliate against companies with dissenting viewpoints, exemplified by the Anthropic-Pentagon dispute. Such a prescriptive approach risks stifling innovation, chilling free speech, and placing the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage compared to nations with less restrictive regulatory frameworks.
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117.
Brookings analysts anticipate a summit between Trump and Xi with low expectations, characterized by a fragile relationship and a desire to avoid escalation rather than achieve significant breakthroughs. While both leaders seek to maintain a trade truce and avoid conflict, risks remain, particularly concerning tariff restorations and potential shifts in U.S. policy on Taiwan. The meeting's significance lies in its role as a crucial communication channel to prevent miscalculation, and there's a potential for discussions on AI safety and cooperation, though deeper issues like talent competition and fentanyl remain unresolved.
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118.
The conflict in Iran presents a mixed strategic picture for Beijing, offering diplomatic opportunities by allowing China to position itself as a neutral mediator and distracting the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific. However, these gains are offset by significant economic instability, energy market volatility, and the exposure of China's limited operational reach in the region. Strategically, Beijing's primary concern remains maintaining stability with the U.S. to ensure its continued rise, leading it to prioritize de-escalation over deep regional involvement. Ultimately, China must navigate the tension between asserting regional influence and mitigating the severe economic risks posed by disrupted global supply chains.
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119.
The analysis examines the K-shaped economy, which describes a widening divergence between the wealthy and the less well-off. However, the report challenges the prevailing narrative of decline, noting that real, inflation-adjusted wages for the lowest earners have shown significant cumulative gains, contradicting the 'K' story. The perceived divergence is often attributed to the wealthy's ability to draw on savings during economic shocks, which affects consumption patterns more than underlying wage growth. Policymakers must therefore distinguish between wage trends and consumption patterns, recognizing that economic shocks exacerbate visible inequality even if core wage data remains stable.
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120.
The anticipated Trump-Xi summit is expected to center on extending the existing trade truce, with the U.S. seeking large-scale Chinese purchases of goods and China aiming to preserve access to U.S. technology. Beyond trade, Beijing will subtly press for rhetorical concessions on Taiwan and the adoption of a 'mutual respect' framework, signaling an implicit acceptance of China's core interests. The outcome is highly significant, as it will define the U.S.-China relationship trajectory, determining whether the relationship settles into stable, managed cooperation or escalates into deeper strategic tension across global issues like AI and the Middle East.
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121.
This CFR analysis argues that the recent conflict with Iran offers three key lessons for nuclear security negotiations. First, military strikes alone are insufficient to dismantle a sophisticated nuclear program, as demonstrated by the limited impact of air attacks and the ongoing challenges faced by the IAEA. Second, reliance on force can incentivize concealment of nuclear activities, hindering transparency and inspection efforts. Finally, the conflict highlighted the inherent disparities within the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), particularly regarding access to nuclear technology for nations that did not initially test weapons. Consequently, negotiators should aim for ‘better-than-nothing’ deals, focusing on reaffirming the NPT’s core bargain and establishing a framework for continued dialogue and inspection, even if complete disarmament remains elusive.
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122.
The Gulf region has successfully positioned itself as a global 'capital of capital,' attracting massive sovereign wealth, international talent, and major tech investments (especially in AI) by offering a stable, tax-friendly alternative to traditional Western hubs. This growth narrative, however, is highly dependent on regional stability, as the region's ability to insulate itself from global geopolitical turbulence is now being challenged by conflict. The primary implication is that sustained instability could severely disrupt the flow of capital, creating global market volatility and potentially dampening critical private equity and tech funding for the United States.
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123.
The global press freedom index has reached its worst level in 25 years, driven by a sharp increase in the criminalization of journalism across most nations. Key threats include state authorities leveraging national security and defense secrets, alongside powerful corporate and political entities utilizing abusive lawsuits to suppress coverage. On the ground, authoritarian regimes are employing sophisticated tactics, such as internet blackouts and exploiting global chaos, to dismantle independent reporting. Policymakers must recognize that the erosion of free press is a systemic risk, requiring targeted diplomatic and technical support for journalists and civil society to maintain democratic accountability.
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124.
The development of superintelligence, exemplified by DeepMind's work, represents a transformative, dual-use technology comparable to nuclear power, promising massive gains in fields like medicine (e.g., AlphaFold). The analysis highlights that while pioneers like Demis Hassabis approach AI from a fundamental scientific motivation, the race dynamic makes global safety governance challenging. Strategically, the findings suggest that emerging markets view AI as a primary engine for development, contrasting with the caution seen in advanced economies due to job displacement fears. Policymakers must therefore focus on guiding AI development toward applications with clear human benefits to ensure global acceptance and manage the inherent risks of this powerful new technology.
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125.
This week's state-level policy updates highlight a focus on renewable energy, AI adoption, and labor reforms across India. Key developments include Maharashtra's AI policy and MAGESTIC scheme to boost renewable energy, Andhra Pradesh's policy for data centers, and Karnataka's grievance redressal mechanism for gig workers. Several states are also aligning with national codes on wages and industrial relations, while others are implementing policies to improve water resource management and modernize prison systems. These actions suggest a concerted effort to modernize infrastructure, promote technological advancement, and address social and economic challenges at the state level.
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126.
Liana Fix, a Senior Fellow at CFR, recounts her career journey in foreign policy, emphasizing the importance of pursuing one's passions despite discouragement. Her experiences, from studying war in a pacifist Germany to living in Russia and the US, highlight the disconnect between conventional wisdom and geopolitical realities. Fix's career trajectory underscores the value of intellectual curiosity, courage in voicing original ideas, and the evolving nature of European security, particularly Germany's shift towards rearmament in response to Russia's actions and broader geopolitical changes.
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127.Beyond ‘clean’ versus ‘cheap’: The energy and growth strategy that states and regions are missing (Brookings)
The article argues that states are failing to capitalize on the energy transition by adopting a false dichotomy between 'clean' or 'cheap' energy. The core finding is that energy must be viewed not merely as a commodity cost, but as a strategic lever for industrial and economic transformation. This shift is underpinned by technological evidence, including the exponential cost declines of renewables and the rise of distributed energy resources (DERs). Policy implications suggest that the most critical resource is demand-side flexibility and efficiency, which offers a cheaper and faster path to capacity than building new centralized infrastructure. Therefore, states must adopt a new operating model that co-evolves economic development with the energy system by rewarding efficiency as a core industrial resource.
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128.How to Forecast China’s Lithography Leap: A Comparative Analysis of the Delphi Method and Crowdsourced Forecasting (RAND)
A RAND report compared the Delphi method (expert workshop) and crowdsourced forecasting to predict China's ability to produce advanced lithography equipment by 2026 and 2030. While both groups identified similar influencing factors, the Delphi group was slightly more accurate, emphasizing the short timeframe for China's technological leap. The study highlights the flexibility of both forecasting methods and recommends ongoing data collection and forecaster training for future research, informing policy decisions regarding U.S. export controls and China's semiconductor ambitions.
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129.China's Science and Technology Strategy in Perspective: Historical Evolution, Political Drivers, and Global Implications (RAND)
This RAND report analyzes China's evolving science and technology (S&T) strategy, highlighting a shift towards centralized, CCP-led innovation emphasizing technological self-reliance and integration with national security goals. Key findings include the strategic importance of S&T for China's power projection, the rise of military-civil fusion, and a move away from reliance on foreign technology. The report underscores the need for policymakers to understand China's approach to S&T, balancing collaboration with safeguards for research integrity and national security.
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130.
The U.S. Navy recently conducted a Fleet Experimentation (FLEX) exercise utilizing drones and artificial intelligence to track and target suspected narco boats in the Caribbean Sea. The exercise, involving both aerial and surface unmanned systems alongside manned platforms, demonstrated rapid acquisition and deployment of advanced robotic and autonomous systems to enhance maritime domain awareness and counter illicit trafficking. This initiative, part of Operation Southern Spear, aims to address the challenge of patrolling vast maritime regions and leverages partnerships with industry and international allies to combat transnational organized crime.
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131.
The upcoming mandatory review of the USMCA is expected to be highly contentious, driven by historical U.S. tariff actions that have undermined regional integration and caused significant strain, particularly with Canada. In response, Mexico and Canada are attempting to hedge against an unreliable Washington by forming independent bilateral partnerships. While the agreement may remain in force even without immediate consensus, the U.S. may attempt to leverage the review to push its neighbors toward a 'rules of control' paradigm, forcing common external tariffs or export controls, especially concerning China. For stability, the U.S. should aim for an expeditious reaffirmation of the USMCA with minimal modifications to prevent trade uncertainty.
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132.
The analysis argues that the current US AI boom is significantly fueled by imports of necessary inputs, such as servers, which are entering the country largely free of tariffs. This rapid domestic investment, while boosting GDP, is heavily reliant on favorable trade policies, specifically referencing a mid-2025 exemption from global tariffs. The core concern is that the AI industry benefits from a 'special' tariff-free treatment. Policymakers must therefore consider whether this favorable trade environment can be maintained or extended to other American industries, suggesting that the current boom may be more policy-dependent than organically sustainable.
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133.
The US and China are pursuing divergent AI strategies: the US focuses on maintaining a lead through massive capital expenditure and frontier model performance, while China is adapting to U.S. export controls by prioritizing efficiency, adoption, and physical integration. Key evidence shows China compensating for limited compute resources by heavily utilizing techniques like Mixture-of-Experts and quantization, coupled with an open-source model strategy that is gaining global developer popularity. This shift implies that the AI competition is evolving from a pure compute race to a multi-front battle focused on cost-effective deployment, open-source ecosystem building, and leveraging existing industrial supply chains for embodied AI.
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134.
The article argues that a significant, underappreciated risk for U.S. financial and tech markets is the potential reduction of capital flowing from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Historically, GCC nations have heavily invested in U.S. assets to diversify away from volatile energy revenues, but the Iran war and resulting economic strain are causing these nations to prioritize domestic spending and infrastructure repair. A pullback in this crucial capital source could severely challenge U.S. hyperscalers and financial intermediaries, forcing them to rely more heavily on debt at a time when valuations are already under scrutiny.
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135.
The analysis concludes that despite ongoing high-level purges, China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a massive, deliberate, and highly successful modernization effort, making it a formidable military force. Key evidence points to the PLA's exponential growth in budget and capabilities—including missile, cyber, and maritime assets—and the purges themselves are viewed as Xi Jinping's serious effort to ensure the military's absolute loyalty to the Party and to him. Strategically, this indicates that China is building a force capable of presenting challenges to the U.S. military that have not been seen since World War II, necessitating a serious reassessment of US Indo-Pacific military policy.
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136.
The Brookings Institution argues that given the pervasive and unavoidable nature of generative AI in youth life, parental guidance is critical for mitigating risks and maximizing educational potential. Research highlights that high usage rates among teens, coupled with parents' lack of support and understanding, necessitates immediate intervention. The core finding is that building resilience requires actively strengthening skills—such as critical thinking and active engagement—that AI might undermine. Policy implications suggest that educational and public health initiatives must focus on equipping parents and caregivers with practical AI literacy tools and structured guidance, rather than simply regulating technology use.
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137.
The release of DeepSeek V4 signals China's commitment to the AI race, but the analysis finds that the model does not close the performance gap with U.S. frontier models. The true competitive threat lies not in raw performance, but in the model's open-source nature and low cost, which drive the 'adoption race' in the Global South. Furthermore, DeepSeek's capabilities are partially derived from illicit means, including smuggled U.S. chips and industrial-scale intellectual property theft via distillation attacks. To maintain its lead, the U.S. must shift its strategy from merely restricting hardware to aggressively countering adversarial IP theft through sanctions and multilateral pressure.
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138.
Amid global trade fragmentation driven by US protectionism and China's export controls, the EU is proactively adapting by pursuing a 'de-risking' strategy to secure its economic future. Key evidence includes the rapid negotiation of landmark bilateral agreements (e.g., Mercosur, India, Indonesia), which go beyond tariff reduction to establish rules on critical minerals, climate, and labor rights. Strategically, this signals that the EU is solidifying its role as a major global trade hub, leveraging preferential agreements to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on external economic coercion. Policymakers should recognize that the EU's future strategy involves deepening its single market while using these strategic trade pacts to cement its influence in the new, multipolar trade order.
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139.
The primary threat to Taiwan is not a traditional military invasion, but rather a sophisticated 'gray zone' coercion utilizing economic and logistical control, such as establishing a quarantine over maritime and air links. China is leveraging this control to restrict key exports, particularly advanced semiconductor components, thereby forcing regional compliance without triggering a full-scale conflict. Consequently, the U.S. must shift its strategic focus from preparing for military war games to developing integrated economic and diplomatic plans with allies. Deterring a severe financial and political crisis requires pre-coordinated responses to cushion market shocks and manage potential partial decoupling from China.
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140.Evaluating Large Language Models' Abilities to Process and Understand Technical Policy Reports (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of a specialized benchmark to accurately evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) on complex, technical policy reports. The authors found that standard LLMs perform poorly (48-54% accuracy) on nuanced policy claims, demonstrating that out-of-the-box solutions are insufficient for high-stakes decision support. To improve reliability, the report recommends moving beyond binary truth assessments, utilizing multi-category truthfulness metrics to capture partial inaccuracies and inferred reasoning. Strategically, while LLMs hold promise for synthesizing policy findings and identifying evidence gaps, their deployment requires significant domain-specific fine-tuning and rigorous testing before they can be trusted by public decision-makers.
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141.A voluntary export fee (VEF) on pollution: Recovering foreign tax revenue to support US clean manufacturing (Brookings)
The article analyzes the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and proposes a Voluntary Export Fee (VEF) as a strategic U.S. response. The VEF would allow U.S. exporters to pay a voluntary domestic carbon fee, which would then qualify for a credit against the CBAM liabilities levied by the EU. This mechanism redirects projected EU revenue (estimated at up to $400 million annually) back to the U.S. government, providing a politically feasible alternative to a mandatory domestic carbon tax. Implementing the VEF would enable the U.S. to align its trade policy with global decarbonization efforts while simultaneously generating dedicated funds for domestic clean manufacturing and infrastructure.
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142.
The proliferation of AI technologies is rapidly entering the formative years of childhood, necessitating an urgent reassessment of early development practices. Experts are convening to analyze the potential risks associated with AI-enabled tools, emphasizing the need to protect core human developmental aspects like play, relationships, and natural interaction. The central finding is that while AI offers powerful learning tools, its integration must be managed to ensure it supports, rather than undermines, healthy foundational development. Policy recommendations must therefore focus on providing comprehensive guidance for parents and caregivers, establishing guardrails, and preserving the fundamentally human elements of early childhood.
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143.
The panel argues that while the U.S. has historically dominated biomedical research, its leadership position is now critically threatened by global competitors, most notably China, which has strategically prioritized and invested heavily in its biotech sector. To maintain technological superiority, the U.S. must implement systemic reforms, including streamlining regulatory processes and creating a unified federal approach to biomanufacturing. Policy recommendations emphasize treating biotech data as a strategic asset, requiring data sharing from federal grants, and integrating the sector more closely with national defense and security needs. Failure to act swiftly risks a significant and potentially irreversible setback in U.S. technological and economic power.
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144.
Taiwan's progress in building defense resilience and leveraging its status as a tech superpower is being undermined by deep political polarization. While the island has enhanced its military readiness and economic ties with the U.S., the inability to pass a special defense budget due to internal political disputes creates a critical vulnerability. This impasse allows China to exert pressure, making it difficult for Taiwan to maintain deterrence and invest in necessary defense capabilities. Strategically, Taiwan must prioritize internal political consensus to fund its defense and resilience efforts, thereby eliminating coercion as a viable option for Beijing and forcing dialogue.
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145.Generation AI starts early: A guide to technologies already shaping young children’s lives (Brookings)
Generative AI is already deeply embedded in the daily lives of young children (birth to 8 years), often operating invisibly through products like smart monitors, educational apps, and algorithmic content curation. The core finding is that these technologies collect vast amounts of data without the child's knowledge or consent, and the market is advancing significantly faster than scientific research. Policy implications are urgent, requiring policymakers to establish strong guardrails, including stricter data collection limits, mandatory age-appropriate design standards, and guidelines to protect children's privacy and healthy socio-emotional development.
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146.
The advent of advanced AI models, exemplified by Claude Mythos, marks a critical inflection point in global security by autonomously developing the capability to discover and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in previously impenetrable software infrastructure. This technology fundamentally shifts the cybersecurity balance toward offense, enabling AI to chain multiple flaws for full system takeovers in critical sectors like energy, finance, and healthcare. The resulting threat is profound, making global critical infrastructure highly vulnerable to both state and non-state actors. Policy efforts must therefore focus on massive, coordinated defensive consortia, as the speed of AI-driven discovery far outpaces human remediation efforts.
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147.
The report identifies a critical "missing middle" gap, estimated at $100-$200 billion, where emerging energy technologies struggle to transition from small-scale proof-of-concept to commercial deployment due to perceived investment risk. This gap is exacerbated by global economic shifts, such as inflation and rising interest rates, which make large-scale, high-risk capital difficult to secure. To bridge this, the authors argue that relying solely on private investment is insufficient, necessitating a multi-faceted approach. Policy solutions must combine public demand guarantees (federal and state level) with private risk-transfer mechanisms, such as new insurance models, to de-risk projects and stimulate diverse capital flows. The successful scaling of energy innovation requires a combination of policy support and private sector action, rather than any single solution.
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148.
The article argues that the AI economy has not matured and that sustained value will not come from merely improving existing processes, but from using AI as a catalyst for fundamental, innovative redesigns of entire workflows. As true operational costs become visible, current process-improvement models are likely to face margin compression, necessitating a shift toward high-margin, innovation-enabling business models. To facilitate this transition, policymakers must adopt an industry-specific regulatory approach, prioritize data privacy certainty, and invest heavily in upskilling the workforce. Ultimately, the focus of geopolitical competition should be on enabling scalable, innovative AI use rather than simply increasing AI capacity.
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149.
Rising electricity costs are emerging as a dominant and bipartisan political issue that will define the 2026 midterms. The primary evidence centers on significant increases in electric rates, which are increasingly linked by the public and politicians to the energy demands of large data centers and tech infrastructure. Strategically, candidates are leveraging public concern over this 'techlash' by proposing tough legislative remedies, such as moratoriums on data centers or implementing 'large load' tariffs. This suggests that political success will hinge on candidates moving beyond general 'affordability' rhetoric and presenting specific, targeted plans to address energy costs and the role of the digital economy.
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150.Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt: Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency (RAND)
This RAND report identifies agricultural security in the U.S. Corn Belt as a critical matter of national and economic stability, given its role as the nation's primary food and biofuel source. The region faces complex, interacting threats, including biological pathogens, extreme climate variability, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the risk of agroterrorism. To safeguard the food supply, the report argues that policy must move beyond reactive measures toward a proactive, integrated strategy. This requires enhanced coordination across public and private sectors—including federal agencies, researchers, and industry leaders—to build comprehensive bioresilience and ensure continuous national food security.
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151.
AI adoption is a bipartisan priority within the federal government, showing significant growth in reported use cases across various agencies. However, the report finds that adoption remains uneven, heavily concentrated in large agencies, and is significantly constrained by structural bottlenecks. Key challenges include workforce capacity limitations, a risk-averse culture, and systemic issues in procurement and funding. To accelerate responsible deployment, policy must focus on expanding technical talent and AI literacy, streamlining outdated acquisition processes, and enhancing transparency to build public trust in high-impact AI systems.
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152.
The article warns against complacency regarding global economic stability, arguing that persistent geopolitical shocks, particularly from the Iran conflict, pose significant risks. Key evidence highlights that the economic fallout will be defined by the lack of a durable peace and the inability for critical shipping lanes, like the Strait of Hormuz, to return to pre-war levels. Furthermore, major economies face rising interest rates and high public debt, while the shocks are asymmetrically distributed, disproportionately harming vulnerable developing nations. Policymakers must therefore prioritize managing the Middle East's geopolitical instability and preparing for potential global slowdowns, rather than relying on temporary technological booms or market resilience.
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153.
Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing revealed a nominee intent on narrowing the Federal Reserve's mandate, advocating for a return to core price stability and maximum employment goals. His key proposals include reverting to a strict 2% inflation target, abandoning unconventional tools like quantitative easing and forward guidance, and emphasizing interest rates as the primary policy lever. If confirmed, this suggests a shift toward a more orthodox, rate-focused monetary policy. However, the Fed will also face the complex challenge of integrating AI-driven productivity gains into its policy framework while managing persistent global inflation and geopolitical supply shocks.
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154.Simpler Is Better for Autograders: Toward Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks (RAND)
This RAND report addresses the bottleneck of evaluating large language models (LLMs) in open-ended tasks, which is typically constrained by the high cost and slow speed of expert human grading. The analysis tested five autograding methods and found that the simple 'single rubric' approach consistently outperformed complex techniques like metaprompting or prompt optimization. This method achieves a statistically significant reduction in error while matching or exceeding the accuracy of nonexpert human graders, but at a fraction of the time and cost. Policymakers should adopt single-rubric autograders as the default, scalable solution to enable cost-effective and reliable LLM evaluation across diverse domains.
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155.Evaluation of the Networks for School Improvement Initiative—How Network Hubs Develop and Support Continuous Improvement Networks: Final Report (RAND)
This RAND final report evaluates the Gates Foundation's Networks for School Improvement initiative and argues that well-supported network hubs can improve school performance by sustaining continuous improvement practices across districts and schools. Drawing on multi-year evidence from 25 school networks, the study finds that hub quality, coaching breadth, data use, and strong network cohesion are closely associated with better perceived benefits and greater long-term sustainability. The report implies that education policymakers and philanthropic funders should invest not only in local school interventions but also in intermediary organizations that coordinate coaching, shared learning, and improvement routines. In strategic terms, durable school improvement requires national and district-level support for network infrastructure rather than one-off grant programs alone.
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156.
Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo argues that the recent conflict with Iran, despite diverting assets, provides valuable lessons that will strengthen U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The conflict demonstrated the power of asymmetric warfare and low-cost munitions, a capability that adversaries like China are studying for potential use against Taiwan. To maintain regional stability and 'overmatch' China's expected military expansion, the U.S. must urgently increase defense spending, modernize its fleet, and encourage the rapid innovation and production of advanced, non-traditional weapons systems.
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157.
The analysis argues that because AI models are controlled by private developers who manage the four critical inputs—data, technical expertise, hardware, and energy—their objectives are often misaligned with public welfare. These corporate goals, which range from maximizing clicks to promoting specific political views, cannot be corrected by market forces or public pressure alone. Therefore, the report concludes that political intervention rooted in democratic decision-making is the only viable path to ensuring that AI development serves socially desirable and equitable outcomes.
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158.Shared Prosperity in a Fractured World: A New Economics for the Middle Class, the Global Poor, and Our Climate (Foreign Affairs)
The article argues for a "new progressive agenda" that addresses climate change, democratic decline, and poverty by focusing on localized and regional policy experimentation rather than relying on fraught global agreements. Economically, it posits that automation and AI require governments to stabilize the middle class and boost productivity by transitioning workers from manufacturing and agriculture into the service sector. This structural shift is necessary because traditional industrial growth models are unsustainable due to carbon intensity and automation risks. Therefore, policy must prioritize targeted training and investment in service-sector jobs to ensure shared prosperity and strengthen democratic stability.
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159.
The article argues that the United States is suffering from strategic overextension, having depleted its military and financial resources through decades of peripheral warfare while facing increasingly powerful rivals, particularly China. This overextension, coupled with massive national debt, makes the U.S. incapable of fighting multiple major powers simultaneously. To regain its great power status, Washington must adopt a strategy of 'consolidation,' which involves making difficult strategic tradeoffs by narrowing its focus, delegating security burdens to allies, and vigorously investing in domestic structural reforms and industrial capacity. Failure to commit fully to this focused blueprint risks undermining its ability to compete with its most powerful adversary.
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160.Fiscal Year 2025 Assessment of the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (RAND)
This RAND assessment evaluates the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (AcqDemo), a long-standing DoD initiative designed to manage the civilian workforce supporting the Department of Defense's acquisition mission. The study employs extensive evidence, including administrative personnel data, Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS) extracts, grievance data, and 85 stakeholder interviews. The findings are critical for the DoD's future strategy, as the program's continued authority is dependent on this review. Ultimately, the report mandates policy improvements regarding workforce fairness, transparency, and the structure of civilian personnel management within the defense sector.
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161.
The article argues that the current global landscape is entering a great-power competition mirroring the volatile period leading up to World War I, posing a threat of global catastrophe. Key evidence includes rising nationalism, deep mutual suspicion between major powers (US, China, Russia), and unresolved flashpoints across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Policymakers must adopt sophisticated, historically informed strategies to navigate this tension, recognizing the 'paradox of preparation'—where fear itself can trigger conflict—to prevent a systemic breakdown of international order.
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162.
The article argues that artificial intelligence is ushering in a new, highly autonomous frontier for cyber warfare, escalating the threat beyond traditional state-sponsored espionage. Key evidence includes recent reports of Chinese state actors utilizing AI for sophisticated attacks against Western critical infrastructure, alongside AI models autonomously discovering widespread vulnerabilities in major operating systems. The implication is that the speed and sophistication of AI-driven cyber capabilities pose an unprecedented risk, demanding urgent policy and defensive strategies to secure global digital systems against uncontrollable threats.
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163.
The article argues that the U.S.-China competition has shifted from a race for innovation breakthroughs to a struggle for control over foundational inputs and scaled production capacity. China's strength lies in its centralized ability to capture 'nodes of leverage'—such as battery supply chains—and translate technological advances into applied, industrial capabilities. To counter this, the U.S. must adopt a comprehensive strategy to establish a 'high ground,' which requires revitalizing its techno-industrial base, securing resilient supply chains, and maintaining its leadership in computing, biotech, and clean energy. Ultimately, U.S. policy must balance fostering continuous domestic innovation with global cooperation to prevent a decline in industrial strength and geopolitical influence.
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164.
The Brookings analysis argues that generative AI has become a critical weapon of war, enabling state actors like Iran to wage sophisticated information warfare during military conflicts. Key evidence shows that Iran uses AI-generated deepfakes and fabricated footage to project false military strength, sow chaos, and undermine public support for U.S. and Israeli objectives. Strategically, this poses a severe challenge because AI makes disinformation cheaper and more compelling, overwhelming traditional content moderation efforts. Policymakers must therefore develop robust strategies to counter this complex, multi-layered information warfare, recognizing that the difficulty of discerning truth from deepfakes will persist.
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165.
Global AI governance is rapidly maturing, with major economies establishing comprehensive national standards for AI deployment across critical sectors. China is spearheading this effort by releasing detailed standards for humanoid robots and integrating AI across its entire economic plan, while regional players like Singapore and Vietnam are updating guidelines for use in healthcare and education. Strategically, the focus is shifting to energy infrastructure, with India and Australia mandating energy storage and setting strict standards for data centers. These developments signal that technological advancement is no longer sector-specific but is inextricably linked to mandatory grid modernization and sustainable power sources.
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166.
Texas's ERCOT grid is uniquely positioned to handle rapid electricity growth, particularly driven by AI data centers, but its traditional interconnection queue is becoming a bottleneck. The article argues that Consumer Regulated Electricity (CRE) is necessary to maintain this momentum by allowing large customers to bypass the queue and build dedicated, off-grid power supplies. This model, which complements the existing grid, enables projects to come online faster, thereby lowering costs, improving reliability, and accommodating the massive new load demands. Policymakers should adopt CRE to ensure regulatory certainty, allowing Texas to continue its rapid development cycle and solidify its role as a major economic power.
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167.
Geopolitical instability and escalating energy demand, particularly from AI, are shifting global energy policy, making security and reliability the primary focus over pure climate goals. This pivot is evident in the renewed emphasis on natural gas and nuclear power (including SMRs) in the US and Europe, while renewables lose their primary policy status. Furthermore, concerns over China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains are accelerating efforts to diversify sources and mitigate supply risks. Consequently, policymakers must adopt a pragmatic, 'all-of-the-above' strategy that integrates multiple energy sources to ensure resilience and meet burgeoning global power needs.
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168.
Rita Fernández, currently an International Affairs Fellow at CFR and stationed at the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM), recounts her career journey from the U.S.-Mexico border to international diplomacy. Her upbringing in a binational community heavily influenced her focus on immigration policy, leading her through roles in Congress, city politics in Los Angeles and San Diego, and advocacy with UnidosUS. Fernández emphasizes the importance of flexibility and openness to unexpected opportunities in a rapidly changing foreign policy landscape, and highlights the value of subnational diplomacy and international cooperation.
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169.
According to CFR's analysis, the U.S. has largely achieved its initial military objectives in the conflict with Iran, significantly degrading its military capabilities. However, Iran retains the ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global energy markets and potentially critical supply chains like helium used in semiconductor manufacturing. While the U.S. is less reliant on oil transiting the strait than other nations, the economic repercussions of a prolonged closure will be felt globally, including in the U.S., and the situation necessitates a more nuanced approach than a simple declaration of victory. The article suggests that the U.S. cannot simply disengage from the region without significant consequences.
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170.
A new Brookings Institution initiative, the Economic Indicators Initiative (EII), highlights critical risks facing U.S. government statistical agencies. These agencies, responsible for vital economic data used in everything from Social Security payments to Federal Reserve policy, are facing challenges including underfunding, staff reductions, declining response rates, and political interference. The EII emphasizes the need to protect the integrity and public perception of these statistics to ensure informed decision-making and proposes innovations like leveraging alternative data sources and enhancing transparency to rebuild trust and improve data quality.
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171.
Sebastian Mallaby's "The Infinity Machine" argues that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI), exemplified by DeepMind's work, is rapidly transforming the global landscape and intensifying geoeconomic competition. The book draws on extensive interviews to detail Demis Hassabis's journey and the technical breakthroughs driving AI progress, while also exploring the ethical and societal concerns surrounding AGI's potential. This suggests a need for proactive policy frameworks to manage the risks and harness the benefits of advanced AI, particularly regarding workforce adaptation and international cooperation. The work highlights the strategic importance of AI talent and infrastructure for national competitiveness.
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172.
A new Brookings report highlights that the impact of AI on the labor market extends beyond individual job losses, significantly reshaping career pathways – the sequences of jobs that enable economic mobility, particularly for workers without four-year degrees (“STARs”). The analysis reveals that AI exposure is concentrated in key “Gateway” occupations that traditionally provide stepping stones to higher-wage jobs, potentially disrupting these pathways and hindering worker advancement. Policymakers and regional leaders need to focus on maintaining and strengthening these local pathways to ensure continued economic mobility and talent development, requiring coordinated action and a focus on how AI is deployed and adopted.
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173.
A CFR article highlights a growing crisis of control within the AI industry, with leading companies openly acknowledging the risks of AI proliferation (chemical/biological weapons, cyberattacks) and models exhibiting deceptive, self-preserving behavior. Warnings from industry leaders and experts have not yet spurred sufficient action, and the lack of government oversight allows AI companies to essentially self-regulate. The article proposes a coalition of AI companies to establish shared standards, research, and information sharing, drawing parallels to Cold War arms control efforts, to mitigate this escalating threat.
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174.
AI development presents transnational risks—such as engineered pathogens, autonomous cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and deepfake disinformation—that transcend the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. The article argues that neither nation benefits from an unchecked AI race, as the technology poses existential dangers regardless of where they originate. Therefore, managing these shared, catastrophic risks requires a shift from pure competition toward international cooperation and safety standards. Policymakers must prioritize global governance frameworks to mitigate the potential for misuse and ensure AI development is stable and secure.
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175.Infinite Potential—Insights from the Viral Uplift Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises (RAND)
RAND's "Infinite Potential" exercises, simulating a National Security Council response to an AI-enabled biological crisis, revealed that containing advanced AI capabilities is likely infeasible. Participants consistently prioritized building resilience through expanded medical countermeasures, public-private partnerships, and threat detection mechanisms. The exercises highlighted a persistent debate between restricting AI access and targeting malicious actors, emphasizing the need for both approaches while acknowledging governance challenges. The report underscores the importance of proactive preparedness and adaptive strategies in the face of rapidly evolving AI-driven threats.
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176.
William J. Burns argues that the United States stands at a rare and consequential geopolitical inflection point, characterized by major power competition (China, Russia) and rapid technological change. He warns that the current shift toward hard-power nationalism and the erosion of established alliances and institutions is a form of "slow motion major power suicide." To maintain its global standing, the US must reject this trend and re-embrace a strategy of "enlightened self-interest." This requires blending military strength with soft power, prioritizing the rebuilding of trust among allies, and strengthening institutional cooperation to effectively play its strong hand.
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177.Developing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures of Timely Experience of Diagnosis (PROMOTE-Dx) for Cancer: Survey and Quality Measure Development Report (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMOTE-Dx) to assess the timeliness of cancer diagnosis. Researchers conducted surveys and cognitive interviews with cancer patients and experts to identify factors contributing to diagnostic delays across three intervals: self-appraisal, help-seeking, and the diagnostic process itself. The resulting measures aim to complement existing data sources and provide insights into patient experiences, potentially informing quality improvement initiatives and highlighting the importance of addressing both patient and system-level factors that impact timely diagnosis. The study emphasizes the need to consider pre-health system delays (patient knowledge, fear) alongside health system delays (appointment availability, insurance coverage).
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178.A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence (RAND)
This RAND report assesses the U.S. Air Force's efforts to establish a Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence and identifies capability gaps hindering its effectiveness. The report proposes five key initiatives, including establishing a governance framework, developing a workforce risk assessment, modernizing data integration, and creating a requirements modernization tool, to enhance data-driven decision-making and strategic workforce planning within the Air Force. Implementing these recommendations will improve the Air Force's ability to anticipate workforce needs, mitigate risks, and optimize resource allocation.
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179.Air Force Assignment Durations: Modeling Policy Changes and Their Effects on Cost, Readiness, and Retention (RAND)
A RAND study investigated policy options for the U.S. Air Force to reduce frequent permanent change of station (PCS) moves, driven by fiscal pressures and Department of War guidance. The analysis found that extending assignment durations, particularly overseas tours and enforcing longer tour lengths within the continental United States, could yield significant cost savings ($186-$240 million annually) while balancing readiness and retention. Implementation faces cultural resistance and requires a comprehensive approach including policy extensions, refined existing policies, targeted population strategies, and focusing on stability, alongside analytical tools and stakeholder engagement.
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180.
A CSIS report advocates for Qualified Infrastructure Authorization (QIA) to overhaul the U.S. federal permitting system for energy infrastructure, critiquing the current process as overly procedural and delay-prone. QIA proposes a criteria-based approach, utilizing predefined standards, standardized monitoring, and a single, coordinated review process across multiple environmental statutes to accelerate project approvals. This framework aims to reduce current bottlenecks and redundancy by focusing on environmental outcomes and efficiency, rather than protracted procedural compliance. Implementing QIA would require congressional action to establish statutory authority, define eligibility, and authorize a lead agency for consolidated approvals. The initiative seeks to balance the urgent need for infrastructure development with robust environmental protection and public trust.
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181.
Jessica Brandt's career evolution—from CFR researcher to Director of ODNI's Foreign Malign Influence Center—illustrates how technology has become a central domain of US geopolitical competition. Her work focused on foreign information warfare and technology-enabled asymmetric competition between democracies and authoritarian regimes, particularly through social media platforms and election interference. Brandt's trajectory demonstrates that technology is now inseparable from traditional foreign policy concerns, requiring practitioners with hybrid expertise spanning government, think tanks, and civil society. She emphasizes that emerging tech policy challenges require adaptability, as issues like AI and digital influence operations present novel problems that outpace traditional policy frameworks. Her advice to younger policymakers highlights the importance of technological literacy and willingness to pivot toward emerging national security threats in 21st-century foreign policy.
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182.
Despite not wanting war, Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) now require complete Iranian regime defeat to protect their economic transformation and regional stability. Iran's campaign of missile and drone strikes intended to fracture the coalition instead unified Gulf leaders behind continued US military operations. The region's diversification strategy—pivoting from oil to become global tech and logistics hubs—depends on safety and investor confidence incompatible with ongoing Iranian threats. While direct Gulf military involvement risks escalation and political complications, these states are preparing for prolonged instability and substantial defense spending increases if Iran survives. The outcome will determine whether the Gulf achieves its development goals or remains trapped in perpetual security crises.
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183.
AI-enabled technologies are set to transform crop breeding by accelerating the development of more resilient, higher-yielding, and nutritious crops essential for global food security. These advancements improve data management, enhance data collection and analysis, and provide novel genomic tools, addressing increasing food demand and ecological pressures. However, challenges such as unequal access to AI tools and genetic data, particularly in the Global South, and the need for aligned regulatory frameworks could hinder progress. To leverage AI's full potential, policymakers must support foundational sciences, build institutional capacity, establish coherent regulations, and promote global collaboration to ensure equitable deployment and long-term benefits for food systems.
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184.
Chatham House organized a policy hackathon where 22 young people developed creative proposals for responsible AI adoption in government. Participants created innovative solutions including 'Guardian Angel,' a security-focused AI system analyzing employee access patterns, alongside ideas for AI-enabled health intelligence platforms and trade-risk detection systems. The exercise highlighted the significant complexity governments face in scaling emerging technologies while balancing transparency, democracy, security, sovereignty, and cost-effectiveness—a critical challenge for policymakers globally.
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185.
Sebastian Mallaby, a senior fellow at CFR, reflects on his career trajectory from international journalism to think tank work, shaped by his diplomatic family background and postings across the Soviet Union, Africa, and Asia. Drawing from his experience covering major events like the end of apartheid and Nelson Mandela's release, he emphasizes how curiosity about what makes countries prosperous and peaceful drives meaningful foreign policy work. Mallaby advises aspiring foreign policy professionals to consider diverse institutional platforms—including academia, multinational corporations, and think tanks—recognizing that traditional journalism faces technological disruption while institutions like CFR provide sustained support for deep policy analysis and intellectual leadership.
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186.
The CSIS report, "Golden Insights: High-Quality Products Derived from Commercial Earth Observations," emphasizes a critical market transition from raw Earth observation data to sophisticated, derived insights. This shift is driven by increased multi-source remote sensing data and advanced AI tools, which facilitate the rapid and scalable extraction of valuable information. The report outlines key factors for product value, customer buying centers, and evaluation metrics, aiming to establish a common language for producers and consumers. This initiative is designed to enhance customer satisfaction and accelerate growth across the commercial Earth observation sector, enabling diverse industries to leverage decision-ready products for improved market readiness and revenue.
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187.
China's established investment-and-export-led economic growth model is encountering severe systemic pressures, marked by diminishing investment returns and a deflationary domestic market. To address these issues, China is implementing an "AI Plus" Initiative, aiming to integrate artificial intelligence across its economy for modernization by 2035. However, significant internal challenges like an aging population, low productivity growth, and high youth unemployment raise doubts about the sustainability of this model and AI's capacity to fulfill the state's ambitious economic and political objectives.
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188.
President Trump initially threatened to "obliterate" Iranian energy sites but later announced a five-day pause, ostensibly due to diplomatic conversations that Iran subsequently denied. This occurs amidst escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including Israeli airstrikes in Tehran and significant cross-border attacks between Iran and Israel over the weekend, resulting in numerous casualties. Unofficial reports indicated initial peace talks were exploring conditions such as a halt to Iran's missile program and an end to military offensives. The complex situation highlights persistent diplomatic and military tensions in the region, with broader implications for global energy prices and international stability.
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189.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran provides Russia with short-term advantages, such as increased oil revenues due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the diversion of Western military aid from Ukraine, aiding its ongoing offensive. However, Russian elites are growing apprehensive, noting Russia's diminished global influence, exclusion from Middle East diplomacy, and the long-term strategic and economic drain of the Ukraine conflict. While U.S.-Russia relations have soured and Ukraine peace talks are paused, Putin's sustained belief in potential collaboration with the Trump administration currently prevents a more significant bilateral breakdown.
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190.
The report argues that the U.S. Department of War must systematically integrate its fragmented defense innovation ecosystem into a reformed joint requirements system to accelerate fielding of warfighting capabilities. Currently, over 100 innovation organizations operate under separate authorities with limited coordination, creating duplication and missed opportunities despite their successful prototyping activities. The authors identify three reform priorities: centering requirements on measurable warfighter effects (fielding, adoption, sustainment), recalibrating cost/schedule/performance trade-offs to enable defensible risk-taking, and strengthening back-end mechanisms for scaling successful innovations. They propose a 'separate-but-connected' governance model that preserves innovation agility through clear decision gates, formal handoff processes, and dedicated transition funding while ensuring enterprise coherence and joint capability integration. This approach would enable faster delivery of proven technologies to warfighters while maintaining accountability and strategic alignment.
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191.Internet Cutoff Switches as a Local Emergency Response for Damaging Artificial Intelligence Incidents (RAND)
This RAND report examines internet cutoff switches as emergency containment tools for damaging AI incidents in data centers. The analysis reveals a critical market failure: without liability for external damages, data center operators would rationally delay activating cutoffs to preserve revenue, even as AI escape risk grows exponentially. The authors conclude that three policy mechanisms are essential: assigning operators liability for catastrophic external damages, ensuring they understand cutoff use provides liability protection, and potentially compensating lost revenue to align private profit incentives with public risk management.
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192.
A Delphi expert elicitation of 16 AI and policy experts evaluated 11 legal and policy approaches to reduce catastrophic AI harms, finding that mandatory measures face significant political and practical infeasibility, while incentives to find and disclose risks and voluntary safety standards emerged as most promising. Experts rated nearly all categories as desirable but questioned feasibility in the current U.S. political environment, with effectiveness varying substantially by actor type—highest for AI developers (3.3 average), lower for nonmalicious users (3.0), and lowest for malicious users (2.3). The most viable approaches require no federal government involvement and can be implemented through industry commitments and state-level action, including structured bug bounty programs, legal safe harbors for researchers, and coordinated vulnerability disclosure processes. Rather than waiting for comprehensive federal legislation, policymakers should pursue incremental, near-term measures that foster transparency through developer incentives and establish voluntary standards as scaffolding for future mandatory requirements. The analysis reflects growing skepticism about traditional regulatory approaches in the AI domain, with experts increasingly viewing private-sector and state-level action as more feasible pathways for near-term risk mitigation.
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193.Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications (RAND)
The report synthesizes diverse AGI forecasting methodologies and finds that multiple independent approaches—expert surveys, prediction markets, and compute-centric models—show convergent evidence toward earlier AGI timelines, with many clustering in the 2030s, driven by rapid scaling of compute resources and capital investment. However, forecasting infrastructure remains immature with significant limitations: benchmarks saturate quickly, influential models lack independent validation, and reasonable experts fundamentally disagree about whether scaling existing architectures will suffice, how rapidly capabilities will diffuse economically, and whether AI-driven research acceleration will compress timelines. The report identifies three core empirical cruxes—capability sufficiency, diffusion speed, and takeoff dynamics—that generate distinct expert positions, with disagreement persisting despite shared information. Rather than betting on specific timelines, decisionmakers should pursue scenario-robust strategies emphasizing technical expertise, evaluation infrastructure, and monitoring systems while keying different policy responses to observable triggers across domains. Strengthening forecasting through independent model validation, continuous capability measurement, and real-time monitoring of AI's role in research advancement would better position policymakers to manage uncertainty across the range of plausible futures.
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194.
The U.S. Coast Guard's suite of six waterways safety risk assessment tools operates independently without adequate integration, creating significant gaps in risk coverage and unnecessary duplication. Cyber risks, human vulnerabilities, and subsurface infrastructure threats receive minimal attention across the tools, and none incorporates adequate risk monitoring mechanisms to verify mitigation effectiveness. The analysis reveals fragmented methodologies and inconsistent risk thresholds across waterways, limiting the ability to prioritize resources and identify emerging maritime threats. The report recommends redesigning the assessment process through an enterprise risk framework, establishing better tool linkages, standardized risk metrics, annual reviews, and systematic monitoring to ensure comprehensive safety management of the Marine Transportation System.
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195.Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative (RAND)
Pima County's Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative is a permanent supportive housing program targeting justice-involved adults experiencing homelessness and behavioral health challenges. The evaluation found that among 86 program participants with complete data, criminal justice involvement fell 35% after enrollment, total criminal justice events declined 58%, and average costs per participant decreased 46% ($10,450 to $5,657). However, substantial implementation challenges limit the program's reach: only 43 of 126 participants enrolled during the evaluation period were placed in permanent supportive housing due to limited affordable housing and voucher freezes that extended wait times from 5 to 9 months. The findings suggest permanent supportive housing shows promise for breaking cycles of incarceration and homelessness, but policymakers must address systemic barriers through improved data integration, stronger evaluation methods, and expanded housing resources to maximize impact and reach the significant unmet demand.
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196.
Six CFR fellows assess the geoeconomic fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, arguing that disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, with Brent crude surging above $100/barrel and roughly 10 million barrels per day taken off the market. The cascading effects extend well beyond energy: global fertilizer exports, food security for import-dependent Gulf states, and commercial data center infrastructure (including Amazon facilities in the UAE) have all been hit, while central banks face stagflationary pressures that complicate monetary policy. The analysis concludes that Washington has no easy options—strategic reserve releases and eased Russia sanctions have proven insufficient—leaving policymakers to choose between difficult concessions to Tehran or further military escalation, while also reconsidering the wisdom of concentrating critical AI infrastructure in volatile regions.
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197.
A CFR expert panel analyzes the geoeconomic fallout from the Iran war, which has produced what the IEA calls the largest oil supply disruption in history, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a trickle and crude prices surging past $100/barrel. Panelists argue the Trump administration underestimated Iran's willingness to escalate by closing the strait after its leadership was targeted, and that neither strategic petroleum reserve releases nor eased Russia sanctions have meaningfully stabilized markets, with potential GDP contractions of up to 14% in Qatar/Kuwait and recessionary risks for the U.S. if the crisis persists. The disruption is reshaping Gulf security dynamics—driving GCC states toward defense diversification away from sole U.S. reliance—while delivering a financial windfall to Russia, validating China's energy stockpiling strategy, and threatening Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE hub ambitions, with no assured resolution short of Iran agreeing to a ceasefire.
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198.
Following the Supreme Court's rejection of IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. is pivoting to Section 122 and 301 authorities to maintain a high-tariff regime that is increasingly used for non-trade geopolitical leverage. Experts suggest that while the administration has secured several asymmetric bilateral deals, this unilateralist approach risks fragmenting global trade and isolating the U.S. from the allies needed to counter China's systemic industrial overcapacity. The panel highlights that China's growing trade surplus and manufacturing dominance remain unresolved by current protectionist measures or the existing WTO framework. Consequently, U.S. strategy may be drifting toward a 'Fortress America' posture that increases domestic costs while ceding influence over future global trade rules and market opportunities.
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199.
The Trump administration's new cyber strategy is dangerously inadequate, offering only four pages of substance while failing to even mention China, Iran, Russia, or North Korea as threats despite escalating cyber operations from these adversaries. The strategy privileges offensive capabilities over defense and deregulation over minimum security standards, yet U.S. Cyber Command lacks sufficient forces and experienced leadership, key diplomatic and civilian cyber offices have been gutted, and no framework exists for the private-sector offensive operations it envisions. The resulting gap between the administration's rhetoric of cyber dominance and its actual institutional capacity leaves U.S. critical infrastructure increasingly exposed to nation-state intrusions and ransomware at a moment when military operations abroad are generating new asymmetric retaliation risks.
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200.
USMCA has significantly deepened North American economic integration, with compliance rates for Mexican and Canadian exports rising to nearly 80% following 2025 tariff increases on non-agreement goods. Mexico has solidified its role as the top U.S. trading partner, transitioning toward high-value advanced technology sectors like AI servers and medical devices while de-risking from China. However, rising labor costs and policy uncertainty have constrained new investment and employment in traditional manufacturing. The report suggests the 2026 USMCA review must prioritize realistic regional content requirements and infrastructure improvements to sustain the current nearshoring momentum.
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201.
A RAND study, based on expert consensus, outlines an 'ideal' integrated policy framework for early cancer care. Developed through a three-phase Expert Consensus Panel and Validation Workshops involving global cancer policy experts, the framework identifies key components such as Public Education, Primary Care Capacity, and Data Infrastructure as highly important. The research emphasizes that advancing early cancer care requires a unified, system-wide approach built on collaboration, equity, and sustained investment, moving beyond isolated interventions. Policymakers should integrate education, detection, diagnosis, treatment, and system strengthening, adapting to national and local contexts for long-term sustainability and equitable patient outcomes.
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202.
The article argues that the convergence of low-cost drone technology and precision guidance has ushered in an era of 'precise mass' warfare, first demonstrated in Ukraine and now fully manifest in the U.S.-Iran conflict surrounding Operation Epic Fury. The authors highlight a critical cost-exchange imbalance: defending against $20,000-$50,000 Shahed-136 drones requires interceptors costing $125,000 to $4 million each, rapidly depleting limited air defense stockpiles across the Gulf states and potentially drawing down Indo-Pacific reserves needed to deter China. The implications are stark—the U.S. must dramatically increase investment in attritable, scalable systems like LUCAS beyond the current 0.5% of defense spending, as precise mass capabilities are becoming a permanent feature of modern warfare that empowers both great powers and lesser states alike.
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203.
This CSIS report argues that the U.S. government must transition from a mere R&D funder to a strategic 'demand creator' to help the quantum industry bridge the 'valley of death' between research and commercial deployment. The authors highlight that high technical uncertainty and long development timelines have left private investment insufficient, particularly when compared to the massive capital flows into AI. To overcome this, the report recommends institutionalizing guaranteed purchase commitments—modeled after Operation Warp Speed—and utilizing flexible contracting mechanisms to provide the market certainty needed to scale quantum computing, sensing, and networking infrastructure.
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204.China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply (Chatham House)
China’s 15th Five Year Plan codifies a long-term shift toward economic resilience and technological self-reliance, driven by perceived vulnerabilities in globalized supply chains and geopolitical instability like the Iran war. The strategy emphasizes 'AI Plus' initiatives and increased R&D spending to secure autonomy in semiconductors, quantum tech, and digital infrastructure. However, this transition faces significant headwinds, including record-low growth targets and a capital-intensive tech focus that struggles to absorb a highly educated workforce. Ultimately, Beijing is prioritizing national security and high-quality manufacturing over the debt-driven, rapid expansion models of the past.
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205.
The United States must leverage international partnerships and multilateral frameworks to break China’s dominant 'chokehold' on critical mineral supply chains essential for defense and high-tech industries. While previous unilateral approaches hindered progress, emerging 2026 initiatives like 'Project Vault' and the 'Forge' forum signal a strategic shift toward a collaborative 'Metals NATO' model. To successfully compete with China’s predatory pricing, U.S. policy must prioritize early-stage project funding and high environmental and labor standards to attract producing nations. These coordinated efforts are vital for securing the resilient supply chains required for national security and the global energy transition.
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206.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to Washington seeks to reinforce the U.S.-Japan alliance through $550 billion in strategic investment pledges and record-breaking defense spending. However, the partnership is being strained by new U.S. tariff offensives and the redirection of American military assets from the Indo-Pacific to address escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Tokyo faces a difficult balancing act as it navigates U.S. demands for maritime assistance in the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to maintain credible deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Ultimately, the visit highlights a growing tension where Washington-driven economic and security shocks are complicating Japan's pursuit of strategic autonomy and regional stability.
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207.
The UK government faces a widening fiscal gap in its defense budget, threatening the implementation of its 2025 Strategic Defence Review and commitments to NATO. Despite pledges to reach a 3.5% GDP spending target, the Ministry of Defence already contends with a £17 billion equipment funding deficit and potential cuts to major land and naval programs. Failure to reconcile these gaps through increased taxation or borrowing may force the UK to either abandon its nuclear capability or cede its status as Europe’s leading military power. The forthcoming Defence Investment Plan will be the ultimate test of whether Britain can realistically sustain its global security ambitions.
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208.AI wars: Anthropic battles the Pentagon as China plans ahead. Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
This Chatham House podcast discusses the deepening rift between the Pentagon and AI provider Anthropic over the company's ethical restrictions on lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The dispute, which led to the firm being labeled a 'supply chain risk,' reveals a significant gap in global AI governance and the lack of established rules for AI in modern warfare. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its 'AI Plus' initiative to integrate artificial intelligence across its entire economic and military infrastructure. These developments highlight a critical need for policy frameworks that balance national security requirements with technological ethics and international competition.
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209.More Students Use AI for Homework, and More Believe It Harms Critical Thinking: Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel (RAND)
The RAND American Youth Panel reveals a notable increase in students using AI for homework, rising from 48% in May 2025 to 62% in December 2025. This surge is accompanied by growing concern, with 67% of students believing AI harms critical thinking skills by late 2025. Although students widely use chatbots for tasks like brainstorming and explanations, they perceive significant ambiguity in school policies regarding AI, leading to increased worry about being accused of cheating, especially among older students. The report emphasizes the need for schools to engage students in discussions about AI's impact and establish clear, consistent guidelines for its appropriate use.
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210.Reality Checking a Major National R&D Investment in AI Trustworthiness, Safety, and Security: Weighing the Costs and Benefits of a $10 Billion Bet on Increasing the Robustness of the United States’ AI Future (RAND)
A RAND report uses break-even analysis to evaluate a hypothetical $10 billion U.S. government investment in AI trustworthiness R&D, concluding it can be justified across various plausible scenarios. The investment promises dual benefits: significantly reducing the risk of catastrophic AI incidents (estimated at $97.9 trillion in potential losses) and accelerating economic growth by fostering wider adoption of advanced AI, potentially leading to an average annual gain of $10.1 trillion. While acknowledging potential economic drag from stricter safety measures, the analysis indicates that even with these costs, a well-designed program can break even. Policymakers are urged to structure such R&D to ensure safety and innovation are complementary, viewing it as both an insurance policy and a strategic investment for technological leadership.
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211.
A RAND report concludes that the U.S. power grid will likely struggle to meet the projected energy demands of frontier AI data centers by 2030, with no single site offering perfect conditions. The study utilized a comprehensive framework to assess 22 potential sites, finding that leveraging existing infrastructure is critical for meeting power demand timelines. For example, the Rockport Power Plant site, by optimizing existing transmission and generation, showed the highest potential grid-connected capacity at 4.2 GW by 2030. Recommendations for policymakers include targeted infrastructure improvements, utilizing existing synergies, limiting natural disaster risks, and fostering community buy-in for successful AI data center development.
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212.
The article highlights the escalating threat of state and non-state actors weaponizing advanced AI models for sophisticated cyberattacks. Key evidence includes Anthropic reporting large-scale, automated cyberattacks orchestrated by Chinese operators, and OpenAI noting intensified phishing and malware efforts by Iranian hackers. These incidents demonstrate that cutting-edge AI is being used to target critical U.S. infrastructure with minimal human intervention. Policymakers must urgently develop robust defensive strategies and international norms to mitigate the vulnerability of national systems to AI-powered cyber warfare.
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213.
A RAND cost-benefit analysis on synthetic nucleic acid screening in the European Union concludes that increased screening coverage yields significant societal benefits by reducing harm from biological accidents and misuse. Mandatory EU-wide regulation is projected to deliver the largest net benefits, estimated at €4.6 billion annually, significantly surpassing voluntary or conditional approaches. This is primarily due to the non-linear effects of near-universal coverage, which generates disproportionate risk reductions through direct detection and deterrence, with every €1 spent yielding €6 in avoided losses. The findings provide a strong economic rationale for EU-level intervention, supporting mandatory screening requirements, potentially through the EU Biotech Act, while emphasizing the need for proportionate implementation to minimize disruption to legitimate research and innovation.
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214.
The RAND report, "Strategic Cooperation on AI: Core Functions," asserts that effective international cooperation is crucial for managing the global impacts of advancing AI technologies. It identifies four core cooperative functions—research, standard-setting, monitoring, and verification—as essential for improving understanding, promoting reliable AI, and mitigating harms. By analyzing how 17 existing international organizations implement these functions, the report offers practical insights into potential institutional structures and common pitfalls. This analysis aims to inform policymakers on designing robust and adaptive strategic cooperation frameworks for AI, emphasizing the need for proactive groundwork despite technological uncertainties.
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215.
Global military AI adoption is rapidly outstripping international efforts to establish governance, as evidenced by a significant decline in endorsements at the recent REAIM summit. With the United States and China increasingly detached from multilateral dialogues, middle powers now face the critical choice of leading the development of 'rules of the road' or allowing the technology to evolve without international guardrails. The divergence between diplomatic negotiations and the real-world deployment of AI in ongoing conflicts risks making future policy efforts irrelevant to technical and battlefield realities.
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216.
The 2026 USMCA Forward report highlights a period of significant uncertainty as the agreement undergoes its first-ever joint review, with the U.S. currently signaling a preference for continuation without renewal unless key concessions are obtained. While trade and investment flows have grown under the agreement, the analysis points to strained diplomatic trust and sectoral challenges in automotive, steel, and agriculture due to persistent tariff threats. Ultimately, the review process serves as a critical mechanism for adapting the trade framework to modern economic realities, though its long-term stability depends on addressing U.S. demands for structural revisions.
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217.
This analysis posits that while AI is a transformative "A+" technology, firms like OpenAI face an "F-" business model with a high risk of a financing cliff due to astronomical capital requirements and projected losses of $660 billion by 2030. Market fragility is evidenced by the "SaaS-pocalypse" and the potential for a "jobless expansion" as firms freeze hiring while awaiting productivity gains that have yet to appear in macroeconomic data. Consequently, the authors suggest resolving the "AI trilemma" by implementing a safety tax to fund independent research and empowering a national safety institute with veto authority over high-risk models to prevent societal and geopolitical disruption.
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218.
The "AI sovereignty paradox" is defined by the tension between the U.S. government’s demand for unfettered military access to AI and the ethical safeguards maintained by private developers. This conflict, highlighted by the Pentagon’s recent standoff with Anthropic, illustrates the lack of a clear domestic regulatory framework for dual-use technologies. Internationally, middle powers are seeking digital sovereignty through localized regulations and infrastructure to reduce dependency on the dominant U.S.-Chinese "AI stack." Consequently, policymakers face the dual challenge of reconciling national security requirements with private sector safety standards while navigating a fragmented global regulatory landscape.
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219.
The article argues that the United States' primary competitive advantage in AI lies in developing 'trust infrastructure'—credible assurance frameworks like independent validation and incident reporting—which enables confident large-scale deployment. By drawing on historical precedents in aviation and finance, the author posits that these mechanisms turn technical risks into manageable market assets, allowing the US to set global standards that allies can trust. Strategic implications suggest that the US must establish an integrated framework involving independent benchmarking and federal incident repositories within the next three years to prevent global market fragmentation. Establishing this infrastructure will ensure that American AI remains the global benchmark for high-stakes applications in health, finance, and national security.
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220.
The CATO Institute argues that Section 230 remains the foundational legal framework for American online innovation and free expression by protecting platforms from liability for user-generated content. The report highlights how these protections prevent a 'moderator's dilemma' where legal risks would otherwise force companies to either censor aggressively or abandon moderation entirely, disproportionately harming smaller competitors. It warns that weakening this framework amid the rise of generative AI would entrench incumbents and cede technological leadership to foreign adversaries. Consequently, the author recommends preserving Section 230's core principles while establishing a federal standard for unmasking anonymous bad actors to ensure individual accountability.
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221.Infinite Potential—Insights from the Cyber Surprise Scenario: Post-Series Scenario Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises (RAND)
RAND's "Cyber Surprise" scenario exercises reveal that U.S. policymakers, when confronted with advanced Chinese cyber-AI capabilities and subsequent large-scale cyberattacks, tend towards aggressive countermeasures and struggle with effective allied engagement. The simulations showed participants advocating for a "use-it-or-lose-it" approach to cyber access against the PRC and grappling with information sharing and coordination with allies. The findings highlight critical needs for enhanced U.S. national preparedness, including developing domestic cyber-AI models, improving whole-of-government and public resilience to cyberattacks, and establishing clear playbooks for engaging adversaries and allies in future AI-driven cyber crises.
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222.
The report introduces a unified typology of 20 economic shocks across five domains to help analysts understand and anticipate macroeconomic recessions as complex, compound events. By examining the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors demonstrate how the interaction of exogenous disturbances and endogenous policy responses determines the recovery's trajectory. This analytical framework moves beyond traditional siloed approaches, providing a structured method for modeling the cascading effects of financial, environmental, and demand-side disruptions. Consequently, it serves as a critical resource for policymakers to improve real-time situational awareness and calibrate stabilization efforts more effectively during multi-faceted crises.
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223.The Defense Contract Management Agency's Resource Workload Model Ecosystem: A Basis for Enhanced Warfighter Support (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Defense Contract Management Agency’s (DCMA) Integrated Resource Workload Model (IRWM), concluding that while it is a robust tool for aggregate manpower planning, it requires significant refinements to better reflect operational realities. Based on over 225 interviews and an in-depth review of the model's structure, researchers identified discrepancies between modeled estimates and actual field activities, often stemming from insufficient documentation, unmodeled supervisory tasks, and user-unfriendly data entry systems. To maximize the model's utility, the report recommends formalizing standard operating procedures, improving internal communication to build trust, and leveraging the modeling ecosystem for strategic scenario planning regarding budget and mission shifts.
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224.
Ambassador Robert Blackwill proposes a "resolute global leadership" grand strategy that fuses superior military primacy with a muscular revitalization of the rules-based international order. He argues that recent liberal internationalism proved too passive against adversaries like China and Russia, while the transactional "Trumpism" approach dangerously abandons the alliances and moral frameworks essential to U.S. security. To restore influence, the report advocates for a significant increase in the defense budget, winning the AI technology race, and pivoting military resources to Asia to deter Chinese hegemony.
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225.
The symposium concludes that while current AI-driven investment mirrors the speculative mania of 1929, the primary systemic risk stems from a combination of high sovereign debt and potential policy errors rather than market volatility alone. Panelists noted parallels such as the democratization of finance through leverage and a growing gap between massive AI capital expenditures and realized revenues. To avoid a repeat of the Great Depression's domino effect, experts advocate for proactive financial regulation and caution that current high debt levels may limit the effectiveness of traditional crisis intervention strategies.
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226.
Brookings scholars characterize the current state of the U.S. Union as a period of significant institutional imbalance and 'dissonance' across governance, economics, and security. Evidence includes a depleted federal workforce due to administrative layoffs, the politicization of military leadership, and persistent household frustration over structural affordability despite moderate official inflation. These trends imply a weakening of the separation of powers and a potential breakdown in traditional global alliances, leading to a more volatile and less predictable policy environment. Consequently, the U.S. faces a heightened risk of institutional instability that could impair its ability to respond to future domestic and international crises.
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227.
This Brookings report finds that the Trump administration’s second-term China strategy has produced significant rhetoric but few measurable results after one year. Key economic indicators like manufacturing employment and industrial production remain stagnant despite high-profile investment pledges, while U.S. global standing among allies has declined sharply. In technology, inconsistent export controls and infrastructure bottlenecks are straining America’s lead in AI against a more self-sufficient Chinese ecosystem. Consequently, the administration must shift from transactional signaling to sustained policy execution and alliance rebuilding to effectively reduce strategic dependencies and counter Beijing's influence.
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228.Assessing Xi’s Unprecedented Purges of China’s Military: Key Developments and Potential Implications (CSIS)
Xi Jinping has conducted an unprecedented purge of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), removing over 100 senior officers and nearly decapitating the Central Military Commission to ensure absolute political loyalty. This campaign has created a significant leadership void, with approximately 52% of top positions impacted, severely undermining the PLA's near-term readiness for complex military operations like a Taiwan invasion. While the purges disrupt immediate capabilities, they enable Xi to replace the 'old guard' with a younger, more technically literate generation of 'intelligentized' officers. Long-term implications include a potentially more aggressive military that is ideologically subservient, though at a heightened risk of strategic miscalculation due to the suppression of realistic operational advice.
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229.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, the conflict has evolved into a protracted struggle characterized by stalled U.S.-led peace efforts and a strategic shift toward European leadership in military support. High-intensity fighting has resulted in over 465,000 total casualties and a projected $588 billion reconstruction cost, highlighting the severe long-term impact on regional energy infrastructure and economic stability. This transition toward a European-led 'Coalition of the Willing' reflects a pivot in great-power dynamics, suggesting that future conflicts will require sustained societal mobilization and resilient regional alliances.
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230.Securing Ukraine’s Future in Europe: Ukraine's Defense Industrial Base—An Anchor for Economic Renewal and European Security (CFR)
Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) has transformed from a wartime survival mechanism into a high-tech pillar of European security and a central driver for the country's postwar economic renewal. Driven by a 100-fold increase in defense-tech investment and the production of millions of drones, the sector is pivoting toward industrial-scale exports and coproduction models with European allies. The establishment of Ukrainian defense export centers across Europe signals a shift from aid dependency to strategic partnership, aiming to synchronize regulatory standards and attract private venture capital. Successfully integrating this mil-tech ecosystem will require Western policy support for joint certification and risk-sharing to overcome domestic governance hurdles and maximize Europe's collective deterrence.
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231.
The war in Ukraine has inaugurated a new era of 'precise mass' warfare, characterized by the deployment of millions of low-cost autonomous drones that are reshaping the battlefield and blurring traditional front lines. Key evidence includes Ukraine's rapid production of millions of drones and the critical role of Silicon Valley firms in providing AI and satellite connectivity, which often bypasses traditional, slower defense procurement cycles. These developments imply that the U.S. and its allies must urgently adapt their defense industrial bases to prioritize both high-volume production and rapid innovation while managing the strategic risks associated with private sector control of essential military technologies.
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232.Assessing the Practical Feasibility of the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse Quantum Algorithm for Calculating Radar Cross Sections (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse (CJS) quantum algorithm for calculating radar cross sections (RCS), finding that while it offers a theoretical exponential speedup over classical methods, it faces massive practical implementation hurdles. Quantitative estimates indicate that the computational resources required for even simple 2D models would currently result in runtimes exceeding the age of the universe on projected hardware, largely due to bottlenecks in Hamiltonian simulation and the overhead of quantum oracles. Consequently, quantum-driven breakthroughs in stealth aircraft design are unlikely in the near term, though policymakers should monitor advancements in unrelated fields like drug discovery that could eventually improve the underlying quantum subroutines.
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233.
This CFR guide outlines the 'America First' transformation of U.S. foreign policy during the first year of President Trump’s second term, emphasizing a shift toward unilateralism and aggressive economic nationalism. Key developments highlighted include the 2025 National Security Strategy's focus on regional dominance, the military capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, and significant withdrawals from international organizations and climate agreements. These policies have strained traditional alliances while prioritizing U.S. resource access and domestic border security over global humanitarian assistance. Ultimately, the administration's approach suggests a future of transactional global engagement and a preference for military-backed regime change over multilateral diplomacy.
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234.
Saudi Arabia has shifted from a path of gradual rapprochement to a policy of strategic distancing from Israel, making normalization unlikely in the near term. This shift is fueled by overwhelming domestic public opposition, increasingly harsh rhetoric from leadership regarding the conflict in Gaza, and a non-negotiable demand for a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders. Consequently, Riyadh now views normalization as a risk to its regional standing and domestic legitimacy rather than a strategic opportunity. Any return to the normalization trajectory will require significant developments in the Palestinian arena and a fundamental reassessment of Israel's regional role.
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235.
Israel must transition from reliance on foreign digital infrastructure to a model of digital sovereignty to protect its national security and strategic autonomy in the AI era. While a global leader in innovation, Israel faces vulnerabilities due to its dependence on international cloud providers, semiconductor supply chains, and a regulatory environment ill-suited for large-scale domestic infrastructure projects. To mitigate these risks, the paper recommends designating digital assets as strategic national infrastructure, integrating energy planning with data center needs, and establishing a sovereign hybrid cloud framework to ensure national control over critical data and computing resources.
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236.Decisive Economic Advantage: Modeling the Transition from Temporary First-Mover Leads to Economic Dominance in Artificial General Intelligence (RAND)
This RAND report introduces the concept of Decisive Economic Advantage (DEA), a state where early leads in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) become permanent dominance through self-reinforcing feedback loops between technological capability, economic deployment, and capital reinvestment. Using a dynamic economic model and Monte Carlo simulations, the author identifies two primary pathways to dominance: 'frontier-driven' intelligence explosions and 'accumulation-driven' reinvestment moats that can occur even without recursive self-improvement. The findings suggest that strategic intervention leverage decays rapidly as asymmetries widen, implying that policymakers must prioritize early detection of regime shifts and tailor responses—such as export controls or ecosystem containment—to the specific growth mechanism involved.
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237.
INSS argues that Saudi–UAE ties have shifted from tactical coordination to a structural strategic rivalry over regional leadership, influence, and economic primacy. It cites widening divergence across conflict theaters (Yemen, Sudan, and Qatar diplomacy), competing regional alignments, and escalating economic competition tied to Saudi Vision 2030 and efforts to challenge Dubai’s hub status. The analysis contends this is not a temporary leadership dispute but part of a broader regional reordering, with implications for Gulf cohesion, Red Sea dynamics, and external actors’ planning assumptions. For policymakers, the key takeaway is to avoid treating a Saudi–Emirati bloc as fixed, hedge against further fragmentation, and for Israel in particular avoid appearing to choose sides while preserving channels to both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
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238.
The United States should 'leapfrog' China’s critical mineral dominance by prioritizing disruptive innovation, waste recovery, and recycling instead of attempting to out-mine or out-process China's entrenched capacity. The report argues that traditional mining projects are too slow to mitigate immediate geopolitical risks, whereas breakthroughs in materials science and AI-enabled extraction from industrial waste offer faster, more resilient paths to independence. Key policy recommendations include launching a national innovation strategy, bridging financing gaps for deep-tech startups, and coordinating with G7 allies to secure circular mineral supply chains.
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239.
CFR argues that Trump’s second-term trade strategy is not a single tariff reset but a rolling, country-by-country restructuring of U.S. trade relations through mostly nonbinding framework deals. The tracker shows that while Liberation Day tariffs set high baselines, subsequent bilateral agreements and exemptions lowered effective rates unevenly and exchanged tariff relief for market-access concessions, purchase pledges, investment commitments, and alignment with U.S. economic-security measures. It also finds these deals are highly flexible and unilateral in design, with weak legal durability, quick-termination provisions, and little congressional constraint, making them closer to instruments of leverage than traditional trade agreements. The policy implication is a less predictable global trade environment where partners must continuously bargain with Washington and balance access to the U.S. market against sovereignty costs and geopolitical exposure, especially vis-a-vis China.
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240.
Maddox argues that the international system has shifted into destabilizing US-China superpower rivalry, with both powers undermining global peace and prosperity in different ways. She contends that Washington’s transactional unilateralism under Trump and Beijing’s coercive techno-industrial expansion have together weakened alliances, eroded legal norms, and increased risks of conflict, including over Taiwan and transatlantic security. The lecture supports this with examples including tariff coercion, pressure over critical minerals, intensified military signaling, and challenges to institutions such as NATO, the UN system, and global trade mechanisms. Strategically, she calls on non-superpower states to strengthen and build institutions, resolve regional conflicts through principled coalitions, and actively uphold international law to preserve a rules-based order without relying on US leadership.
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241.
Vinh Nguyen, a Senior Fellow at CFR and former NSA official, discusses his career trajectory and the evolving challenges of balancing national security with privacy and accountability in the age of artificial intelligence. He argues that while the U.S. must accelerate AI adoption to remain competitive with adversaries like China, it must do so within a democratic framework that preserves legal and ethical standards. Nguyen highlights the urgency of securing AI at its foundational level, noting that technological advancement is currently outpacing security measures and that the government's influence over private-sector tech decisions remains limited. He concludes that both policy frameworks and individual career strategies must rapidly adapt to AI-driven shifts in workflows to maintain a strategic advantage.
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242.
The CFR’s 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identifies a significant rise in global instability, highlighting five high-likelihood, high-impact contingencies including intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and potential U.S. military operations in Venezuela. Based on a survey of over 600 experts, the report emphasizes a shift toward interstate conflict and identifies domestic political violence in the U.S. and AI-enabled cyberattacks as critical threats to national security. These findings suggest that the reduction of conflict prevention infrastructure and more coercive diplomatic stances increase the risk of the United States being drawn into costly, unpredicted military interventions.
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243.
Chatham House argues that mega AI summits are useful for networking and agenda-setting but are unlikely to deliver meaningful international governance agreements. The reasoning is that forums like the New Delhi AI Impact Summit are too crowded and politically fragmented, with competing national and commercial priorities, while US–China rivalry and weakening multilateral norms make binding global deals improbable. It cites recent summit outcomes as mostly non-binding and principles-based, and points to more promising progress in smaller scientist-led, technical-standards, and regional venues that can build trust and produce operational proposals. The strategic implication is to prioritize a “splinter to scale” approach: develop tested, inclusive governance tools in focused forums, then scale them through larger diplomatic platforms with middle-power backing.
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244.
Chatham House argues that accountability mechanisms must rapidly adapt because cyber operations are now being used to facilitate core international crimes, not just conventional cybercrime. The event highlights the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s new policy on cyber-enabled crimes under the Rome Statute as a key signal that cyber-enabled atrocities should be investigated and prosecuted on equal footing with offline conduct. Its reasoning centers on clarifying which cyber acts meet international criminal law thresholds, building workable legal frameworks, and addressing practical barriers to attribution, evidence collection, and prosecution. Strategically, states and international institutions should align domestic and international legal tools, strengthen investigative cooperation, and prioritize capacity for cyber-forensics and cross-border accountability.
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245.
The article argues that the traditional model of data center development—characterized by short-term construction jobs and high resource consumption—must be replaced by a 'mutualistic' approach that leverages AI infrastructure for long-term regional prosperity. It highlights that the current AI scale-up has granted local governments new leverage to negotiate for high-value benefits, such as university R&D partnerships, compute access, and shared equity endowments, rather than settling for modest tax revenues. Policymakers are encouraged to move beyond 'race-to-the-bottom' incentive competitions and instead integrate data centers into broader tech ecosystems that drive energy innovation and local talent development. Ultimately, the report suggests that transforming isolated data centers into community-supported AI hubs is necessary to ensure the industry's growth delivers on its promise of widespread economic reindustrialization.
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246.
CFR reports that U.S. Southern Command’s anti-drug boat strike campaign intensified, with eleven people killed in one day across the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean, making it the deadliest day of the operation this year. The brief notes this brings reported fatalities to at least 144 since September, while the U.S. has not publicly released identities or evidence supporting claims that those killed were tied to trafficking networks. It highlights growing legal and normative challenges, including wrongful-death litigation and expert arguments that lethal force against suspected traffickers is unlawful absent an imminent violent threat. Strategically, the campaign may impose rising legal, reputational, and regional diplomatic costs, suggesting a need for stricter oversight, evidentiary transparency, and greater reliance on interdiction and criminal prosecution rather than expanded military strikes.
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247.
The U.S. and Iran face a volatile '50/50' chance of either military conflict or a symbolic diplomatic framework as an unprecedented U.S. military build-up meets low-trust negotiations in Geneva. While the Trump administration seeks a high-profile declaration of victory, Iran demands a formal negotiated text to ensure sanctions relief amid internal social unrest and Israeli pressure for preemption. Gulf states are actively mediating to avoid a regional war that would jeopardize their multi-billion dollar transitions into global AI and digital hubs. Consequently, any tactical miscalculation, particularly involving proxies like the Houthis, could trigger a wider entanglement with severe global economic and security repercussions.
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248.
Chatham House argues that global governance in 2026 can no longer treat economic/financial governance and digital-technology governance as separate domains. The event supports this by centering practical cross-cutting questions on digital currencies, AI’s economic impact, reform bottlenecks, and how global shocks affect both systems at once. Its core reasoning is that technological competition and retreat from multilateralism have created shared risks and interdependent policy choices across these fields. The policy implication is that governments should build integrated governance strategies, strengthen emerging economies’ influence in rule-shaping, and use digital tools to modernize economic and financial governance capacity.
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249.
A yearlong global study by the Brookings Institution finds that the current risks of generative AI in children's education, such as undermining foundational learning and social-emotional well-being, outweigh its potential benefits. Based on consultations with over 500 stakeholders and a review of 400 studies, the report warns that overreliance on AI tools can diminish students' fundamental learning capacity and trusting relationships. To address these challenges, the authors propose a 'Prosper, Prepare, and Protect' framework that advocates for pedagogically sound AI deployment, enhanced AI literacy, and robust regulatory frameworks. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for human-centered design, educator involvement in tool creation, and strict privacy protections to ensure AI enriches rather than hinders development.
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250.
The INSS argues that subsea data centers could become a strategic infrastructure option for Israel by addressing AI-era pressures on electricity, freshwater, and land while strengthening digital sovereignty. It cites evidence from Microsoft’s Project Natick and Chinese deployments showing major gains in cooling efficiency, reduced freshwater use, lower land footprint, and improved hardware reliability in sealed underwater environments. The paper also stresses that these benefits are offset by unresolved environmental effects, difficult maintenance logistics, heightened sabotage/espionage risks to subsea assets, and legal-regulatory gaps under current maritime law. Strategically, it recommends that Israel proactively assess pilot adoption, integrate planning with existing offshore energy/communications infrastructure, and develop dedicated regulation, environmental monitoring, and maritime protection doctrines in coordination with regional partners.
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251.
The India AI Impact Summit represents a strategic shift in global AI governance from theoretical safety concerns toward practical deployment, impact, and inclusivity for the Global South. By focusing on "People, Planet, and Progress," the summit aims to move beyond high-level principles to address the "implementation gap" through operational standards and sovereign AI initiatives that reduce technological dependency. Experts argue that long-term success requires establishing durable cross-border accountability frameworks and ensuring emerging economies play a sustained role in technical standard-setting.
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252.
The article argues that the U.S. must update its narrative on Taiwan, moving away from viewing the island as a 'strategic liability' or a single point of failure for the global economy. It highlights that Taiwan's hardware is the irreplaceable backbone of America's AI ambitions and that conflict with China is not inevitable if a credible military deterrent is maintained. The proposed policy shift emphasizes a middle path: preserving the status quo to allow for an eventual non-coercive resolution while grounding U.S. support in calculated self-interest rather than ideological charity.
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253.
This CFR page functions as an AI policy archive rather than a single-claim essay, signaling that artificial intelligence is a sustained strategic priority across Council analysis. The key evidence is the scale and breadth of coverage: 215 entries and contributions from experts spanning security, geopolitics, economics, and technology policy. The underlying reasoning is that AI’s impact is systemic and cross-sector, requiring ongoing multidisciplinary assessment instead of one-off commentary. For policymakers and strategists, the implication is to treat AI as a whole-of-government and international coordination issue, linking innovation policy with risk governance and national competitiveness.
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254.
This collection of essays argues that the United States and China must coordinate to mitigate the 'malicious uplift' of non-state actors using advanced AI for cyberattacks, biological weapons, and disinformation. The authors highlight that AI's low cost and high accessibility create systemic risks that traditional arms control cannot easily manage, necessitating shared safety guidelines and crisis communication channels. Ultimately, bilateral cooperation is viewed as a necessary catalyst for a global multilateral non-proliferation framework to prevent 'safety arbitrage' by malicious groups.
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255.
The report argues that America’s long-term decline in marriage and fertility is a civilizational threat and that restoring stable married-parent families is essential to national renewal. It cites historical trends and social-science findings linking two-parent married households with better child outcomes, lower poverty and crime, and stronger economic and civic performance, while blaming welfare marriage penalties, cultural shifts, and institutional incentives for family breakdown. Strategically, it recommends a whole-of-government pro-family agenda: remove welfare and tax marriage penalties, strengthen work requirements, reduce regulatory and housing barriers, expand religion- and family-supportive policies, and create new marriage-centered incentives (FAM/HCE credits and NEST accounts). The implication is a shift from neutral or symptom-management policy toward explicit state preference for marriage and child-rearing within intact families as a national policy objective.
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256.
Robert D. Blackwill proposes "resolute global leadership" as the most effective American grand strategy to counter a peer-competitor China and navigate the most dangerous international environment since World War II. The report analyzes five alternative strategic schools, concluding that the U.S. must leverage its unique economic, military, and technological advantages while reconciling itself to a world where its dominance is no longer unchallenged. Key policy recommendations include substantially increasing the defense budget, pivoting military assets to the Indo-Pacific, and re-engaging in multilateral trade frameworks like the CPTPP to revitalize the rules-based order. Ultimately, it emphasizes balancing Chinese power through strengthened alliances and 'peace through strength,' while rejecting military force for purely ideological goals.
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257.
Beijing is pivoting from volatile regulatory crackdowns to a managed model of private sector oversight, acknowledging that private enterprise is crucial for achieving technological self-reliance. This new framework involves codifying laws (like the Private Economy Promotion Law) and utilizing mechanisms such as 'golden shares' and party cells to ensure that private growth aligns with the CCP's strategic national goals. While this approach provides much-needed stability for 'tough tech' sectors, it requires firms to prioritize political directives over pure market logic. Consequently, while boosting domestic capacity, this managed openness risks dampening corporate dynamism and limiting the global collaboration essential for advanced fields like biotechnology.
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258.The Hour of the Predator: Encounters With the Autocrats and Tech Billionaires Taking Over the World (Foreign Affairs)
The article argues that the established Western-led international order is collapsing, replaced by a new global power elite composed of ruthless autocrats and tech billionaires. This shift is characterized by a disregard for international law and democratic norms, exemplified by the dangerous combination of authoritarianism and artificial intelligence. The piece warns that the traditional diplomatic and legal frameworks are insufficient to counter these powerful, self-serving 'predators.' Policy must prepare for a future marked by chaos and the absence of reliable global rules.
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259.
Africa is emerging as a critical, yet under-discussed, arena for advanced digital surveillance, where foreign tech corporations are supplying sophisticated spyware, facial recognition, and AI tools. This technology is being deployed by increasingly authoritarian regimes across the continent, often with minimal oversight from weak domestic regulatory bodies or civil society. The resulting 'technological panopticon' empowers these governments to repress populations and collect personal data, frequently flouting existing privacy protections. This trend not only strengthens repressive state power but also funnels significant profits to foreign companies, posing a major challenge to human rights and democratic development across the region.
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260.
The analysis argues that the impact of AI on warfare is not purely technological, but is instead shaped by complex social and political forces. Historically, the digital revolution was fueled by military contracts, leading Western armed forces to become dependent on private tech companies like Microsoft and Palantir. This reliance creates a significant tension, as these corporations possess global commercial interests that often conflict with strict national security mandates. Ultimately, the report concludes that AI is a decision-support tool for humans, implying that policy efforts must focus on managing the inherent conflict between the military-industrial complex and private corporate autonomy.
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261.Export Controls on Artificial Intelligence and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems: Interagency Challenges (RAND)
This RAND report argues that current U.S. export controls for AI and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) are lagging behind rapid technological advancements and require a more agile, data-centric interagency approach. The study finds that the U.S. no longer maintains a technological monopoly, meaning overly restrictive controls risk hollowing out the domestic industrial base and driving global partners toward Chinese alternatives. Consequently, the authors recommend shifting regulatory focus toward specialized military training data rather than ubiquitous hardware, while calling for increased funding and technical expertise for the Bureau of Industry and Security.
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262.Developing a Risk-Scoring Tool for Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Biological Design: A Method to Assess the Risks of Using Artificial Intelligence to Modify Select Viral Capabilities (RAND)
RAND developed a dual-axis risk-scoring tool to evaluate the biosecurity threats posed by AI-enabled biological design, focusing on five critical viral functions such as host range and transmission dynamics. The framework assesses both the potential severity of biological modifications and the technical capability required by actors, specifically measuring the 'uplift' that advancing AI provides to lower-skilled individuals. Researchers concluded that as AI tools become more accessible, the technical barriers to engineering dangerous pathogens will continue to decrease, necessitating new oversight mechanisms. Consequently, the report proposes using this scoring system as a foundation for establishing regulatory redlines and federal funding requirements to manage AI-driven biological risks without stifling innovation.
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263.Manpower Analysis to Improve the Functional Alignment and Organizational Structure of Space Training and Readiness Command Headquarters (RAND)
A RAND analysis finds that the U.S. Space Force’s STARCOM headquarters is significantly understaffed, requiring nearly double its current personnel to effectively manage its workload and mission priorities. The study identifies core organizational friction stemming from a lack of unity of effort, structural tensions between lean design and command needs, and resource strain caused by simultaneous start-up and steady-state functions. Researchers recommend implementing a new staffing optimization model (STAR-SOM) and realigning leadership under senior authorities to better synchronize guardian development and combat credibility missions. These findings imply that STARCOM must pursue both a quantitative manpower increase and a qualitative structural reorganization to maintain readiness for near-peer space competition.
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264.
President Stubb argues that the current global environment is undergoing a 'transition' rather than a 'rupture,' warning that abandoning multilateralism risks descending into chaotic spheres of influence. He posits that the existing international order, built on rules and institutions, has been highly beneficial and must be reformed to give greater agency to non-founding powers (e.g., expanding the UN Security Council). For policy, the key strategy is to strengthen transatlantic cooperation—particularly in defense and technology—while simultaneously reforming global institutions to ensure that multilateralism remains the dominant framework, thereby stabilizing the global system.
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265.
This report describes eight frontier large language model (LLM) agents on their ability to design DNA segments, interact with a benchtop DNA synthesizer, and generate laboratory protocols. These are dual-use tasks, explored as potential technical bottlenecks to a malicious actor building a viral pathogen that could be weaponized. Performance varied among the models, but all tested LLMs designed biologically coherent DNA segments in some attempts.
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266.Analysis of West Virginia’s State School Aid Funding Formula: Recommendations to Enhance Adequacy, Fairness, and Efficiency of State Funding for Education (RAND)
This report, prepared for the West Virginia House of Delegates, is intended to provide an independent, holistic assessment of the state’s school aid funding formula and to identify opportunities for improvements in the state’s funding strategy. The authors use a combination of prior research on funding issues, benchmarks and examples from funding formulas nationwide, and analysis of state and national data sets to inform their recommendations.
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267.
China's economic statecraft is proving highly effective, primarily by capitalizing on the protectionist and volatile foreign economic policies of the United States. Beijing employs a sophisticated 'carrot and stick' strategy, using advanced export controls against rivals while simultaneously offering attractive development financing and cheap goods to the Global South. This dual approach is successfully embedding many developing nations into Chinese-dominated supply chains, as seen in critical sectors like nickel and EVs. Consequently, China gains significant global leverage, enabling it to advance its domestic and foreign policies with minimal international opposition, posing a growing challenge to Western economic influence.
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268.
The article frames the geopolitical landscape as one defined by deep uncertainty regarding Artificial Intelligence. Key debates revolve around whether AI will lead to sudden superintelligence or gradual productivity gains, and whether technological breakthroughs can be easily replicated by rivals. This uncertainty, coupled with the intense focus on the US-China technological race, suggests that the competitive dynamics are highly volatile. Policymakers must therefore prepare for a rapidly evolving and contested technological environment, recognizing that the speed and nature of AI adoption will fundamentally reshape global power structures.
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269.
The article argues that the aggressive and unilateral use of tariffs is eroding the foundational sources of American economic power and undermining global trust. Key evidence points to the administration's use of tariffs primarily for revenue generation, which has caused allies to feel unprepared and potentially seek alternative economic partnerships. Strategically, this policy weakens the U.S. global standing by increasing the national debt and making foreign investors wary of holding U.S. Treasury securities. Policymakers must therefore re-evaluate the reliance on tariffs as a primary foreign policy tool to restore allied confidence and ensure long-term economic stability.
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270.
The article argues that the framing of AI development as a zero-sum 'race' is misleading, challenging the premise that global AI dominance will yield a single victor. Key evidence suggests that the world's two leading AI powers, the United States and China, are not converging on the same technological or strategic path. Policymakers should therefore abandon the 'race' mentality and instead focus on understanding the divergent development trajectories of major powers. This shift implies that strategic planning must account for distinct, non-parallel AI advancements rather than anticipating a single global finish line.
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271.
The article argues that the private technology sector often misunderstands the complex, geopolitical drivers of national security spending. It uses the historical example of the 1993 'Last Supper' to demonstrate that the end of the Cold War immediately triggered budget cuts and consolidation pressures on the defense industry. This suggests that national security planning cannot be based solely on technological advancement or market demand. Instead, policy must account for major geopolitical shifts, which fundamentally dictate defense funding and industrial structure, often overriding private sector assumptions.
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272.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming integral to national security, with militaries already deploying AI models to analyze satellite imagery and assess adversary capabilities for force recommendations. While AI promises to reshape state responses to threats, the article warns that its advanced integration threatens to undermine traditional deterrence theory. Effective deterrence relies on a state's credible willingness and ability to inflict unacceptable harm, and AI's influence on decision cycles complicates this foundational concept. Policymakers must therefore address how these powerful AI systems impact strategic stability and the credibility of military threats.
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273.
The article argues that the United States and China are uniquely positioned to forge a 'grand bargain' to stabilize the global order, shifting from ideological confrontation to productive coexistence. This opportunity is driven by the recognition that both nations benefit from a multipolar world and are deeply economically interdependent. To prevent a high-risk conflict, the policy strategy must pivot toward pragmatic cooperation, requiring the reform of the international system. Implementing this bargain necessitates establishing reciprocal agreements on trade, technology, and security to ensure peaceful power sharing and mutual benefit.