Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Do AI summits work?
English Summary
Chatham House argues that mega AI summits are useful for networking and agenda-setting but are unlikely to deliver meaningful international governance agreements. The reasoning is that forums like the New Delhi AI Impact Summit are too crowded and politically fragmented, with competing national and commercial priorities, while US–China rivalry and weakening multilateral norms make binding global deals improbable. It cites recent summit outcomes as mostly non-binding and principles-based, and points to more promising progress in smaller scientist-led, technical-standards, and regional venues that can build trust and produce operational proposals. The strategic implication is to prioritize a “splinter to scale” approach: develop tested, inclusive governance tools in focused forums, then scale them through larger diplomatic platforms with middle-power backing.
中文摘要
研究所指出，大型人工智慧峰會有助於建立人脈與設定議程，但不太可能達成具實質意義的國際治理協議。其理由在於，新德里 AI 影響峰會等論壇參與者過多、政治立場分裂，且各國與商業優先事項彼此競逐；同時，美中競爭加劇與多邊規範弱化，使具拘束力的全球協議難以成形。文中援引近期峰會成果，多屬不具拘束力且以原則為導向，並指出更有希望的進展來自規模較小、由科學家主導、以技術標準為核心及區域性的平台，這些平台較能建立信任並提出可操作方案。其策略意涵是優先採取「由分散到擴展」（splinter to scale）路徑：先在聚焦論壇中發展經驗證且具包容性的治理工具，再在中等強權支持下，透過更大型外交平台擴大推行。
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