The analysis suggests that Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine is facing increasing internal and external pressures. Key evidence points to a tightening economic crisis, evidenced by widespread blackouts and a noticeable scaling back of traditional military displays. Furthermore, the discussion highlights Putin's increasing isolation and micromanagement, suggesting that the strategic initiative may be slipping out of Moscow's control. Policymakers should monitor these signs of internal strain, as they indicate potential vulnerabilities and a possible shift in Russia's military and geopolitical calculus.
Chatham House
This hub page collects curated ThinkTankWeekly entries for Chatham House and links readers back to the publisher for the original reports.
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The analysis cautions that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit must not result in short-term strategic concessions for the US, which risks undermining long-term stability. China is rapidly consolidating global power, leveraging US policy shifts and increasing its assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific and in technology. Strategically, the US must prioritize addressing the immediate crisis in Iran, where China holds significant leverage, and must also focus on joint cooperation on AI. Ultimately, the US must resist political impulses and pursue a robust strategy to counter China's growing challenge to global dominance.
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3.Rare earths are on Trump’s agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home (Chatham House)
While China maintains critical dominance over the global rare earth processing supply chain, the US possesses a substantial, untapped domestic resource: electronic waste (e-waste). Estimates suggest that annual US e-waste contains enough rare earth magnets to meet a significant portion of projected domestic demand, far exceeding current domestic mining capacity. However, this potential is hampered by a lack of uniform federal recycling laws and specialized collection infrastructure, leading to valuable materials leaking out of the economy. To achieve mineral security, the US must shift its strategy from solely developing new mines to establishing a robust circular economy model. This requires federal policy intervention, investment in advanced separation technologies, and incentivizing product design for easy disassembly.
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This document is an event invitation rather than a policy analysis, but it highlights the importance of informal networking among global policy elites. The primary finding is that high-level policy consensus and narrative shaping often occur in non-academic, social settings like this reception. Key evidence lies in the event's structure—a member-only gathering designed for informal dialogue—which facilitates networking between members, staff, and council members. Strategically, this implies that policy analysts must monitor such elite gatherings, as they are crucial venues for building consensus and setting the agenda outside of formal governmental or academic channels.
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5.Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and global energy security (Chatham House)
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to plunge the global energy system into an acute crisis, with repercussions extending far beyond surging oil and gas prices. The immediate evidence shows cascading economic failures, including flight cancellations, fuel rationing, and mandatory government fiscal revisions. Birol stresses that global economic stability is highly precarious, depending on de-escalation between major regional powers. Policymakers must urgently reassess energy security strategies, determining if the crisis will accelerate the energy transition or cause a significant global derailment.
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The analysis argues that the current global inflation surge is primarily driven by soaring energy prices, which are exacerbated by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Key evidence points to the dramatic rise in energy costs (e.g., Brent crude near $100), establishing energy inflation as the dominant driver of broader CPI, overriding concerns about demand-side factors. Consequently, central banks face significant policy challenges, as this energy shock will trigger 'second-round effects' (cost-push inflation) that cannot be easily mitigated through traditional monetary policy rate hikes.
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Sir Michael Moritz argues that the contemporary crisis of antisemitism in the UK must be understood through the lens of historical persecution and exile. Drawing parallels between his family's history of escaping the Holocaust and the current political climate, he asserts that modern threats echo historical trauma, making the UK an increasingly uncomfortable place for Jews. The discussion emphasizes that the fragility of security and the threat to pluralism are paramount concerns. Policy implications stress that protecting democratic principles and combating antisemitism requires drawing deep lessons from history to maintain a stable, inclusive society.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that global health reform cannot await a new world order, requiring immediate action from middle powers. Given the structural pressures on multilateral bodies like the WHO, the authors propose a dual strategy: middle powers must employ 'variable geometry' by building flexible, issue-specific coalitions (e.g., for pandemic preparedness) rather than waiting for slow, comprehensive global settlements. Crucially, reform must be driven by the Global South, necessitating that Western powers move beyond mere dialogue to genuine power-sharing negotiations. Failure to cede structural power and grant permanent representation to the Global South will undermine the legitimacy and effectiveness of any reformed global health architecture.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that 'maximum pressure' sanctions, especially those aimed at regime change, are inherently unstable and create a dangerous escalatory momentum toward military action. The evidence points to repeated failures—such as the decades-long sanctions on Cuba and the inability to topple the Venezuelan regime—demonstrating that sanctions alone are insufficient to achieve stated political goals. Consequently, the risk of military intervention is not limited to a single administration but is a systemic policy danger for any US government that implements punitive sanctions without a coherent strategy for de-escalation or negotiation. Policymakers must therefore view sanctions as a limited tool, ensuring they are paired with clear off-ramps to prevent unnecessary conflict.
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Despite rising global tensions and skepticism regarding formal arms control, the paper argues that avoiding a new nuclear arms race remains achievable. It analyzes the stability of four key nuclear relationships—including the US-Russia, US-China, and the N5 group—to assess the current risk landscape. The research provides concrete recommendations for states to manage these complex dynamics and prevent costly escalation. Ultimately, the findings emphasize that proactive diplomatic engagement is crucial to maintaining strategic stability, especially in the context of the NPT Review Conference.
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11.Hormuz crisis could lead to constructive dialogue between ASEAN and China in the South China Sea (Chatham House)
The energy crisis stemming from the Middle East is creating a strategic opening for ASEAN nations, particularly the Philippines, to re-engage with China on joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. This economic necessity provides a critical incentive for Beijing to cooperate on regional stability, allowing the Philippines to leverage its ASEAN chairmanship and growing US alliance to push for a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC). Policymakers should view this window of dialogue as a unique opportunity to advance international law (UNCLOS) and transform temporary energy cooperation into permanent maritime security agreements, thereby mitigating great power competition risks.
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The assassination of a development leader in government-controlled Yemen exposes the profound and systemic insecurity within the country, undermining stabilization efforts despite international backing. The article argues that this fragility stems from the government's inability to establish coherent command and control over security agencies, making security efforts reactive rather than preventative. This instability severely jeopardizes international aid and diplomatic missions, which are increasingly hesitant to operate in the region. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that top-down stabilization approaches, such as those backed by Saudi Arabia, will fail without achieving broader local legitimacy and political inclusion.
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The article argues that the Trump administration's strained relationship with US allies has significantly diminished American negotiating leverage against China. This weakening is evidenced by allied nations (including Canada, the UK, and South Korea) forging independent, lucrative economic and strategic partnerships with Beijing. Consequently, China is capitalizing on the fractured US alliance structure, gaining greater economic connectivity and fewer multilateral constraints. To counter this, the US and its partners must urgently rebuild allied cohesion and develop a unified, collective bargaining strategy on critical issues like semiconductors and minerals, independent of Washington's unilateral actions.
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While the provided source material is technical metadata and lacks substantive policy text, the nature of a 'Corporate Reception' from Chatham House suggests a focus on the intersection of corporate strategy and geopolitical risk. The likely main argument is that global economic stability is increasingly contingent on corporate agility and the ability to navigate fragmented regulatory environments. Key reasoning points would emphasize the shift from efficiency-driven globalization to resilience-focused, localized supply chains. For policy, this implies that governments must develop flexible, sector-specific industrial policies that encourage 'de-risking' and regional economic integration, rather than relying on broad, multilateral trade agreements.
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The paper argues that water is a 'forgotten input' in global trade, and the lack of policy integration regarding water use leads to unsustainable practices in supply chains. It emphasizes that thinking about supply-chain security must explicitly incorporate the concept of 'virtual water' trade, particularly given current geopolitical fragmentation. Consequently, policymakers and corporations must mandate that physical water scarcity and degradation challenges are primary considerations when reorganizing supplier relationships and managing global trade flows.
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The upcoming summit between Xi and Trump is unlikely to result in direct discussions or agreements regarding China's growing nuclear arsenal or US missile defense projects. Instead, the analysis suggests that strategic stability can be advanced by focusing on shared threat assessments in emerging domains, such as artificial intelligence and outer space. Progress can be made by establishing dialogue on AI risks in escalation and reaffirming commitments to keep AI out of nuclear launch decisions. This shift allows the superpowers to build confidence and manage strategic tensions without confronting immediate nuclear limits, thereby providing a pathway for dialogue.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit will focus on managing the US-China rivalry through transactional, short-term agreements rather than resolving deep structural competition. Both leaders are primarily constrained by domestic political pressures—Trump's election cycle and Xi's economic stability—leading them to prioritize immediate economic levers like trade purchases and technology access. While the US agenda is narrow and improvisational, China is leveraging its economic statecraft, particularly rare earth controls, to maintain an asymmetric stalemate. For policy makers, the report advises looking past immediate headlines, emphasizing that sustained data and execution on commitments, such as trade fulfillment, are more critical than the summit's stated outcomes.
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18.Malcolm Turnbull: AUKUS is ‘a huge wealth transfer from the Australian government to the US and the UK’ (Chatham House)
Malcolm Turnbull argues that the AUKUS security pact constitutes a 'huge wealth transfer' and a poor strategic decision for Australia. He criticizes the deal by citing logistical flaws, specifically noting that US naval yards cannot produce the required submarines at sufficient scale or speed. Furthermore, he points to the UK's shipbuilding industry being in 'complete disarray.' Strategically, Turnbull suggests that Australia would have been better positioned by maintaining its relationship with France to develop common defense platforms for Europe, rather than committing to the current trilateral arrangement.
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Ghana is strategically positioning itself as a key actor in the fragmenting, multipolar global order by adopting a policy of 'multi-alignment.' The nation is deepening its regional influence by promoting West African security cooperation and hosting the AfCFTA Secretariat, while simultaneously championing global justice and inclusive multilateralism. This strategy involves initiatives like the Accra Reset and leading UN efforts to recognize the transatlantic slave trade as a crime against humanity. For policy makers, Ghana's approach suggests that African states are actively leveraging non-alignment to promote continental agency and contribute to a more balanced international governance system.
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The article argues that President Lula da Silva's re-election bid faces significant headwinds, suggesting his political trajectory mirrors the challenges faced by Joe Biden. Key evidence points to a major policy gap: public concern over crime and violence has surpassed traditional leftist concerns, making the PT appear out of touch with current voter sentiment. Strategically, Lula must urgently adapt his platform to address security and law enforcement issues to counter the right-wing appeal of the Bolsonaro camp. Failure to do so risks a shift toward 'tough-on-crime' governance, fundamentally altering Brazil's domestic policy direction.
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The GCC monarchies are actively pursuing strategies to enhance their regional influence and economic resilience through national visions focused on diversification. While these efforts aim to boost geopolitical and soft power, the region faces significant structural headwinds. Key challenges include demographic stagnation, escalating regional instability, and the mounting impacts of climate change. Policymakers must also account for persistent internal debates concerning political freedoms and human rights when formulating regional strategies.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that global pandemic risk is fundamentally driven by structural inequality, creating a mutually reinforcing cycle where outbreaks escalate into pandemics and deepen disparities. This finding is supported by the lessons from the COVID-19 and HIV epidemics, which demonstrate that inequality undermines global health security and scientific advances. Consequently, the report urges policymakers to abandon conventional, top-down approaches, advocating instead for a framework that centers structural inequality to build genuine and effective pandemic resilience.
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Chatham House's recent analysis finds that the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran has effectively sidelined the Gaza ceasefire, leading to deteriorating humanitarian conditions and a narrowing of political options within the territory. The report highlights how the conflict is reshaping the calculations of regional and international actors, solidifying temporary border arrangements and security measures. Consequently, the webinar suggests a shift towards a more permanent, albeit precarious, status quo in Gaza. This underscores the urgent need for humanitarian aid and a re-evaluation of long-term strategies for the region.
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A Chatham House report argues that the ongoing Iran war has diverted international attention and pressure, allowing the Gaza ceasefire to stagnate and conditions to deteriorate. Hamas is unwilling to disarm without a clear political pathway and faces disincentives from Israeli-backed militias, while Israel sees little incentive to withdraw troops and is expanding its control zone. The failure to allow the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to enter further exacerbates the situation, hardening positions and hindering any progress towards a lasting resolution.
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25.King Charles in Washington: Did the royal visit save the ‘special relationship’? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
The podcast questions whether King Charles III's state visit can salvage the 'special relationship,' arguing that the alliance is currently strained by structural geopolitical issues. Experts highlight that the US is increasingly reluctant to bear the full burden of European defense, challenging the traditional transatlantic security framework. Consequently, the discussion emphasizes that the UK and Europe must develop independent strategic policies—particularly regarding NATO and regional conflicts like Iran—rather than relying solely on historical ties or US goodwill. The overall implication is a necessary pivot toward greater European autonomy and a redefinition of the UK's role in global security.
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The article argues that the current linear 'take–make–dispose' economic model is environmentally unsustainable and poses severe risks to the climate. To mitigate these impacts, a global transition to a circular economy—which prioritizes reuse, repair, and remanufacturing—is essential. This systemic shift requires moving beyond simple recycling to fundamentally redesigning resource flows. Policy implications emphasize the need for coordinated international and national policy interventions to enable this transition and embed circular principles into global economic structures.
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27.China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran (Chatham House)
The war in Iran is unlikely to establish China as a direct replacement for the US as the Gulf's security provider, but it is accelerating the region's strategic shift away from absolute reliance on American guarantees. This dynamic allows China to gain influence by positioning itself as a diplomatic and technological partner, rather than a military guarantor. Gulf states are diversifying their defense procurement and seeking alternative regional stability models. Consequently, China is well-positioned to promote its own normative framework for regional cooperation, making its principles appealing to nations seeking stability without US-centric security commitments.
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The US economic debate between global integration and national self-reliance is an enduring historical thread that continues to define American policy. Current tensions, driven by strategic competition with China and the revival of industrial policy, reflect a growing skepticism toward globalization and established trade institutions. Policymakers must therefore interpret Washington's evolving economic posture—whether it signals renewed global leadership or strategic retrenchment—to anticipate shifts in international trade rules and global economic stability.
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29.How a surge in defence and dual-use technology investment could reconfigure the global AI race (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that deteriorating global security and heightened concerns over technological vulnerability are shifting the AI race away from a simple US-China binary toward a more fragmented and multipolar market. This trend is driven by nations prioritizing tech sovereignty and defense-driven innovation, leading to a surge in dual-use technology investment. Consequently, the global AI industry is becoming more securitized, challenging the ability of the current leaders to maintain unchallenged dominance over the entire value chain or its global rollout. Policymakers must anticipate this fragmentation and prepare for a geopolitical restructuring of AI supply chains.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that a naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz must prioritize strategic design and regional ownership over sheer military might to ensure long-term stability. Drawing lessons from past anti-piracy efforts, the coalition should compartmentalize responsibilities into specialized task groups and implement a tiered escort system for high-value vessels. Crucially, the strategy must limit the use of force solely to deter attacks, rather than attempting to militarily defeat Iran. By adopting a structured, regionally-led approach, the coalition can restore confidence in shipping while managing the persistent threat of conflict.
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Germany's 'Zeitenwende' signals a profound shift from economic influence to strategic military leadership, positioning it as an increasingly assertive and unavoidable power in Europe. While substantial funding and procurement (e.g., F-35s, special funds) demonstrate political intent, the article argues that this rearmament risks outpacing strategic coherence. Key challenges include persistent deficiencies in the Bundeswehr's readiness, the lack of a unified military doctrine, and deep institutional inertia. For Germany to successfully assume a leading role, it must overcome these internal structural hurdles—including its risk-averse economic model and political fragmentation—to translate resources into usable, deployable force.
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32.Political deadlock has left Iraq’s Kurdistan Region dangerously exposed amid Iran war (Chatham House)
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) faces extreme vulnerability due to a deep political deadlock between the KDP and PUK, which prevents the formation of a stable regional government. This internal disunity severely undermines the KRI's ability to project influence, manage domestic challenges, or resist the erosion of its autonomy by the federal government in Baghdad. Compounding this crisis, the KRI is under constant threat from Iran-backed militias, while Baghdad simultaneously curtails its financial and oil export controls. Consequently, the KRI lacks a unified front to negotiate with regional powers or international actors, increasing the risk of a major political or security rupture.
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33.Norway can teach the UK about energy security – but the lesson is not more North Sea drilling (Chatham House)
The article argues that the UK's energy security challenge, exacerbated by global supply shocks, cannot be solved by increased fossil fuel extraction from the North Sea. Instead, the UK should model its strategy on Norway, which successfully decoupled its energy needs from fossil fuels by prioritizing electrification for heating and transport. This transition requires aggressive policy intervention—such as subsidies and infrastructure upgrades—to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles. By rapidly shifting away from oil and gas dependency, the UK can significantly reduce its exposure to volatile international energy markets, thereby improving both resilience and environmental outcomes.
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The Chatham House analysis highlights that African institutions are crucial but face challenges in coordinating a durable peace process in the Great Lakes region. While past efforts have shown limitations, the region's complex conflict dynamics necessitate that African actors define and assert their strategic value. Effective peacebuilding requires greater synchronization between high-level diplomatic negotiations and localized, grassroots initiatives. Policy success depends on African institutions coordinating their efforts while strategically engaging with external mediators (e.g., the US, Qatar) to sustain comprehensive peace efforts.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that using advanced AI chip export controls as a primary geopolitical bargaining chip is an outdated and ineffective strategy. The core flaw is the assumption that chips remain the sole technological 'chokepoint,' as AI progress is increasingly driven by algorithmic efficiency, model optimization, and software improvements, rather than raw computing power. Furthermore, controls are easily circumvented through widespread smuggling and the use of grey markets. Policymakers must therefore shift away from a hardware-centric approach, adopting a stable and comprehensive strategy that focuses on algorithmic and software leadership to maintain strategic advantage.
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The Chatham House analysis suggests that Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and Hezbollah is facing significant internal contradictions and political instability. Key evidence points to Prime Minister Netanyahu lacking political leverage and a stable coalition, while the national mood reflects strategic fatigue despite some opposition to a ceasefire. Consequently, the war's future trajectory and Israel's relationships with the US, Europe, and Gulf Arab states will be heavily dictated by domestic political dynamics and the upcoming electoral cycle, rather than solely by military necessity.
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Mexico is at a critical juncture under President Sheinbaum, who is driving significant internal reforms across governance, the rule of law, and democratic institutions. Externally, Mexico's relationship with the United States is becoming increasingly complex, characterized by deepening cooperation in trade, migration, and security alongside rising tensions over sovereignty and democratic standards. The central strategic challenge is how Sheinbaum will navigate these competing pressures. Mexico's internal political trajectory and foreign policy signals are thus crucial, as they will define the stability of US-Mexico relations and influence broader regional stability in the years ahead.
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38.US at 250: Internationalism vs. isolationism – America’s enduring foreign policy debate (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis frames American foreign policy as a persistent tension between internationalism and isolationism, a dynamic that has defined U.S. statecraft since its founding. Historically, this pendulum has swung between global engagement (e.g., Wilsonian ideals) and withdrawal (e.g., America First policies). The core finding is that current skepticism toward the rules-based international order may not signal a historic rupture, but rather the latest swing of a familiar, cyclical pattern. Policymakers must recognize this enduring duality, as strategic shifts are likely to reflect a return to historical patterns of prioritizing immediate American interests over long-term global commitments.
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The Chatham House analysis details the complex legal history of the Falkland Islands sovereignty dispute, arguing that the UK's historical title and continuous display of state authority are legally robust. The article systematically challenges Argentina's claims, asserting that doctrines like *uti possidetis* and self-determination are inapplicable against the UK, especially since the UK was already the established power at the time of Argentina's independence. For policy, the findings underscore that the dispute is fundamentally a matter of international law and historical precedent, rather than a simple colonial issue. Therefore, any resolution requires sophisticated diplomatic engagement that navigates the principles of self-determination and intertemporal law, making military action legally tenuous.
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The publication analyzes the acute geopolitical challenge faced by Australia, which is economically tied to China while maintaining a strategic alliance with the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The core argument explores the viability and costs of 'strategic hedging' for middle powers operating in a world where the established rules-based order is under intense revisionist pressure from both major powers. Key reasoning revolves around how allies can preserve strategic autonomy and economic interests when the terms of traditional US alliances are becoming less fixed. Ultimately, the piece offers insights into the limits of Australia's model for other nations seeking to navigate the escalating US-China rivalry without sacrificing their national interests.
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Central Asia is identified as a critical geopolitical pivot point, sitting at the nexus of East-West connectivity, energy transition, and global order restructuring. The region's governments are increasingly asserting strategic independence from Moscow while maintaining non-alignment with the West, making it a key testing ground for new geopolitical dynamics. Consequently, the report stresses that external powers—including the EU, US, UK, and Türkiye—must enhance cooperation. This coordinated effort is crucial for supporting regional stability, mitigating great power competition, and effectively harnessing Central Asia's substantial growth potential.
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The recent coordinated attacks in Mali demonstrate that security cannot be achieved through military means alone, exposing the deep fragility of the ruling junta and its external alliances. The strikes by jihadist and Tuareg militants highlighted the limits of military support, including the withdrawal of Russian mercenaries, while simultaneously revealing profound, unresolved ethnic and political grievances. Consequently, the article argues that purely military solutions are unviable; sustainable stabilization requires a strategic pivot toward comprehensive political negotiation, local-level mediation, and addressing underlying community tensions.
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43.How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit (Chatham House)
The ongoing instability stemming from the Iran conflict and the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz are forcing Saudi Arabia to fundamentally reassess its long-term economic strategy. Recognizing the existential threat posed by potential chokepoint closures, the Kingdom is pivoting its economic geography and infrastructure development away from the Gulf and toward the Red Sea. This strategic shift aims to reduce dependence on Hormuz and establish Saudi Arabia as a major regional logistics hub. However, this westward reorientation introduces new maritime security risks from the Houthis, making regional stability and infrastructure investment critical to the success of Vision 2030.
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44.‘Parliaments in dialogue’: Bringing Westminster and Brussels closer together to defend Europe (Chatham House)
Chatham House is launching a dialogue series focused on enhancing security and defense cooperation between the UK and the EU. The core argument is that aligning strategic ambitions and deepening practical collaboration between Westminster and Brussels is crucial for defending Europe amidst global uncertainty. The initiative brings together parliamentary members and defense experts to identify mechanisms for institutional cooperation. This suggests a strategic policy shift toward formalizing legislative-level partnerships to strengthen the collective security architecture of the continent.
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The UN humanitarian system is facing unprecedented strain due to multiplying global conflicts and insufficient funding, leading to a gap between humanitarian need and operational capacity. The core challenge is the declining political will of major powers to sustain the multilateral order, putting the UN's reform agenda under intense pressure. To address this, the analysis argues that effective global leadership requires a significant overhaul of the UN system and a renewed commitment to donor roles. Specifically, nations must redefine their contributions to international aid and governance, even if they have reduced their own national spending, to ensure a coherent global response.
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The conflict in Sudan is entrenched, with military efforts by the SAF and RSF showing no sign of resolution, while regional competition further complicates diplomatic efforts. Despite various international initiatives (Quad, Quintet), progress is hampered by a lack of coordination and the focus on military gains rather than civilian needs. The analysis argues that the only viable path forward is establishing a credible, inclusive, and civilian-led political process. Therefore, international policy must shift away from military intervention and instead focus on coordinating all mediating bodies under a single umbrella to support a non-aligned political transition.
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47.Iran, Pope, Economy: How many battles can Trump fight at once? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
The podcast analyzes the complex intersection of geopolitical flashpoints, US domestic politics, and global economic stability. Key discussions center on the volatile situation in Iran, potential Strait of Hormuz blockades, and the broader health of the global economy, framed against the backdrop of US midterm election preparations. The panel argues that the US faces the challenge of managing multiple, simultaneous crises—ranging from regional conflicts to economic downturns—which complicates strategic decision-making. Policy implications suggest that the US must balance aggressive diplomatic engagement in the Middle East with managing internal political divisions and global financial pressures.
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48.Chatham House Debate: Is China the primary threat to global stability in the next decade? (Chatham House)
The Chatham House debate reveals that while China's rapid military modernization, technological ambitions, and efforts to reshape global norms pose a fundamental challenge to the international order, labeling it the sole primary threat is an oversimplification. Experts debated whether the challenge is purely geopolitical or if it is complicated by China's deep integration into the global economy and its role in addressing transnational issues like climate change. The consensus is that the challenge is multifaceted, stemming from complex great power competition rather than an inevitable path to conflict. Policymakers must therefore adopt a nuanced strategy that addresses multiple, interconnected risks shaping a fragmented international system.
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This briefing examines the historical and geopolitical significance of the Gulf region's dominance in global oil and gas supplies. The analysis argues that the region's wealth and influence have been intrinsically tied to fossil fuel exports, making it a critical flashpoint for global energy security, particularly amid current tensions like those around the Strait of Hormuz. While Part 1 establishes this historical dependency, the series warns that the future stability of the Gulf is threatened by two major forces: escalating regional conflicts and the irreversible global energy transition. Policymakers must therefore consider how Gulf producers will manage this dual challenge to maintain their geopolitical influence and ensure global energy stability.
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50.Is the shock of the US-Iran war helping Europe come together? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
The podcast examines whether the geopolitical shockwaves from the US-Iran conflict are forcing Europe toward greater unity or deeper fragmentation. Key evidence suggests that renewed global instability is pressuring European nations to fundamentally reconsider their economic priorities and security architecture. The discussion highlights Europe's challenge in navigating an increasingly unpredictable United States while simultaneously managing its complex relationship with Russia. Ultimately, the analysis questions whether this crisis represents a moment of internal division or the necessary catalyst for developing a more coherent and unified European geopolitical stance.
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51.The Strait of Hormuz energy crisis shows the EU’s carbon pricing is the right approach (Chatham House)
The energy crisis stemming from the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates the profound vulnerability of relying on volatile fossil fuel imports. The analysis argues that the EU's existing carbon pricing mechanism, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), is the essential long-term solution, as it has proven effective in driving decarbonization and reducing emissions while generating revenue for clean energy investments. Policymakers must therefore strengthen the ETS and prioritize coordinated joint procurement of resources to mitigate geopolitical shocks. Ad-hoc national subsidies, conversely, risk undermining the 'polluter pays principle' and fragmenting the European market.
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52.Israel’s accelerating de facto annexation of the West Bank has dangerous implications (Chatham House)
Chatham House warns that Israel is accelerating a de facto annexation of the West Bank, a process that severely undermines the possibility of a viable Palestinian state. Key evidence includes far-right policies driving massive settlement expansion and the establishment of Israeli governance over occupied areas, such as the controversial process of registering West Bank land as state property. The report argues that this unilateral action is dangerous, jeopardizing regional stability and the prospects for peace. For policy, the authors recommend that the US and regional powers (including the UAE and Saudi Arabia) must coordinate to condition political and military support on Israel reversing these annexation measures to prevent further conflict.
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AI adoption is identified as the primary driver of global economic competitiveness, shifting the focus from model development to effective, widespread deployment across sectors. While AI holds massive productive potential—estimated at up to $6.6 trillion across major economies—this potential is hampered by existing skills gaps and labor market rigidity. Therefore, the key policy imperative is coordinated action: governments, businesses, and educational institutions must collaborate to create responsive labor markets. This strategy is essential to rapidly upskill the global workforce, ensuring that talent can match economic opportunity and build a resilient, productive economy in the AI era.
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The Chatham House analysis highlights that international humanitarian law is severely strained, noting that despite protective resolutions, medical facilities and personnel are routinely targeted, damaged, or misused in modern armed conflicts. This failure leaves the wounded without access to care and subjects healthcare providers to punishment. The paper argues that addressing this crisis requires identifying specific measures to mitigate adverse impacts of military operations and promoting compliance with IHL. Ultimately, states and organized armed groups must adopt concrete strategies to ensure the protection and respect of medical care during wartime.
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55.India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that while the Indus Waters Treaty is currently strained by geopolitical tensions and climate change, re-engaging on shared water resources is critical for achieving lasting peace between India and Pakistan. The treaty's stability is threatened by rapid glacial retreat, mounting water demand, and the politicization of resource management. Drawing lessons from global water governance successes, the report advises that international actors must elevate water management from a technical issue to a core pillar of diplomacy, providing technical assistance to stabilize the region and build confidence.
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Pakistan's emergence as a mediator between the US and Iran is less about regional diplomacy and more about structural necessity and strategic gain. The nation's near-bankrupt economy and heavy reliance on energy imports compel Islamabad to leverage its mediation role to secure international bailouts. Key to this strategy is the close personal rapport between the US administration and the powerful military establishment, which Pakistan is using to attract massive US investment in critical minerals, cryptocurrency, and counter-terrorism cooperation. Consequently, Pakistan's mediation efforts are highly transactional, aiming to stabilize its economy and bolster its military-industrial complex rather than purely achieving regional peace.
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This source is an event invitation for Chatham House's Corporate Reception, rather than a substantive policy paper. The announcement highlights a high-level networking opportunity designed to connect corporate members, business leaders, policymakers, and the diplomatic community. While lacking specific policy findings, the event structure suggests that key policy discussions are increasingly being advanced through informal, multi-stakeholder forums. The implication for strategy is that private sector engagement and networking are critical components of modern policy formation, requiring analysts to monitor such private gatherings for emerging consensus or friction points.
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58.Democratic elections in Venezuela won’t happen overnight – here’s the groundwork that’s needed first (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that achieving credible democratic elections in Venezuela requires extensive preparatory groundwork, rather than immediate scheduling. This urgency stems from the deep politicization and degradation of key institutions, including the judiciary and security services, under previous regimes. To establish a viable democratic path, the report recommends urgent, coordinated reforms and preparatory negotiations. These efforts must involve the interim government, the domestic opposition, civil society, and critically, international stakeholders such as the United States.
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59.Lord Robertson: UK’s ‘naïve belief’ the US ‘will always be there’ has diminished its defence capabilities (Chatham House)
Lord Robertson argues that the UK's historical 'naïve belief' in the perpetual support of the United States has led to a dangerous diminishment of its own defense capabilities. He cites recent strains in the UK-US relationship, such as geopolitical disagreements and the US's shifting focus, as evidence that the US's role as global steward is waning. Consequently, the report urges the UK to pivot away from high military dependence on Washington, emphasizing the urgent need to build greater autonomy and develop robust defense partnerships with European allies. This shift is necessary to deter aggression and adapt to a fundamentally destabilizing international system.
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The Chatham House analysis emphasizes that international law, specifically the UNCLOS regime of 'transit passage,' guarantees unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz, overriding local coastal state sovereignty. The article critiques unilateral blockades, such as the proposed US action, as illegal and highly escalatory, noting that the Strait is vital for global energy trade. Given its critical role in maritime commerce, adherence to established international law is paramount; any conflict escalation must respect the right of passage to prevent catastrophic global economic disruption.
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61.
Alberta's substantial role as Canada's primary energy producer grants the province significant leverage in shaping the nation's foreign and energy policy. The conversation highlights that global energy instability, particularly the Middle East conflict, is increasing international interest in North American supply and elevating the importance of Canada's export choices. Premier Smith's vision suggests that Alberta's priorities—rooted in deep US market integration and energy exports—will heavily influence Canada's strategy regarding economic sovereignty and alliance recalibration. Ultimately, the successful integration of Alberta's economic agenda into the federal foreign policy remains an open question regarding national consensus.
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62.A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that a crisis over Taiwan poses a far greater global economic threat than a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This risk stems from Taiwan's pivotal role as the world's leading producer of advanced semiconductors, which are critical, non-substitutable components for modern AI and electronics. A blockade or conflict could trigger a catastrophic global GDP decline, necessitating urgent policy action. To mitigate this, Europe must accelerate the diversification of semiconductor supply chains, deepen intelligence and technical cooperation with Taiwan, and actively communicate the severe global costs of escalation to Beijing.
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63.Chatham House fellow gives evidence on China and critical minerals to UK Parliament Business and Trade sub-Committee (Chatham House)
A Chatham House fellow warned that the UK's reliance on China for critical minerals constitutes a severe economic vulnerability, which Beijing could weaponize to exert significant economic coercion. He argued that the optimum policy must be hybrid, requiring the UK to first identify its main vulnerabilities and then formulate detailed strategies to mitigate foreign exploitation. To build resilience, the UK must cooperate with allies to establish rare earth supply chains insulated from China, actively court foreign investment for domestic mining and refining, and support product recycling to diversify sources.
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64.
The recent US-hosted talks between Lebanon and Israel are viewed as a crucial, albeit challenging, confidence-building measure that reasserts Lebanese state sovereignty. While the core hurdle remains Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, the talks are politically viable because neither Hezbollah nor Iran could prevent the meeting. For future negotiations to succeed, the analysis suggests that Israel must curb strikes on civilian infrastructure, while the Lebanese government must take concrete steps—including politically and financially isolating Hezbollah—to diminish its military and political power.
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65.
While US assets demonstrated relative resilience and maintained their safe-haven status during the Iran conflict, the Chatham House analysis cautions that this stability may be conjunctural rather than structural. The good performance of the dollar and US markets may simply reflect the US's current economic insulation, particularly its status as a major energy and weapons producer. Policymakers should note that this reliance on US strength is challenged by the remarkable stability of rival economies, such as China, whose financial calm suggests that global currency dominance is subject to multiple, non-US-centric factors.
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66.
The global order is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by the shifting strategies of the US and China, which creates significant uncertainty regarding established international norms and institutions. This instability presents a critical opportunity for non-aligned nations, particularly the Global South, to actively shape the rules of the emerging world order. Policymakers must navigate the tension between preserving existing structures (like the WTO and UN) and establishing new governance frameworks for challenges such as climate change and AI. Strategic focus must therefore shift toward multilateral diplomacy that empowers diverse regional actors to mediate between great power competition and ensure global stability.
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67.
Orbán's defeat in the Hungarian election signals a rejection of his entrenched political system, driven primarily by domestic concerns like economic stagnation rather than geopolitical narratives. While the political model of 'Orbánism' may persist in opposition, the immediate implication is positive for EU cohesion, as the new government is expected to be less obstructive and more predictable in its relations with Brussels. This shift improves the EU's overall security posture, potentially easing coordination on issues like Ukraine and strengthening the center-right European People's Party (EPP). Strategically, the result serves as a warning to European populists that economic distress can overturn even the most durable political systems.
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68.
The Chatham House analysis argues that Israel's attempt to institutionalize a permanent state of low-intensity warfare, dubbed the 'Super-Sparta' model, is fundamentally unsustainable. This model is challenged by both internal and external realities: politically, the government is facing domestic fatigue due to its inability to deliver decisive end-states in conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah. Strategically, the vision is limited by a severe manpower crisis and economic strain, as the current infrastructure cannot support continuous military readiness. Consequently, the article implies that the long-term viability of Israel's current security policy requires significant socio-economic restructuring or a strategic pivot away from perpetual conflict.
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69.
The analysis concludes that regardless of the election outcome, Hungary's policy choices are constrained by deep structural factors, making a systemic shift unlikely. Key constraints include economic pressures from conditional EU funding and critical energy infrastructure dependence on Russian technology and gas routes. Consequently, any future government will pursue a trajectory of 'gradual rebalancing' in foreign and energy policy, rather than making a clean break with either the EU or Russia. This suggests that while political leadership may change, the underlying strategic dependencies will dictate a cautious, pragmatic approach to regional alignment.
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70.
The Chatham House analysis highlights that Ukraine faces a staggering reconstruction challenge, with the total cost of recovery estimated at nearly $588 billion. Achieving economic stability requires a massive, coordinated effort involving the Ukrainian state, Western donors, the private sector, and civil society. The primary strategy involves deep structural reforms and accelerating integration with the European Union to catalyze growth and ensure a predictable business environment. Policy efforts must therefore focus on developing long-term security assurances, implementing market reforms, and strategically positioning Ukraine within emerging European value chains.
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71.Members’ question time: Will the regime in Cuba be able to survive the current crisis? (Chatham House)
Cuba is currently experiencing a severe, multi-faceted crisis marked by economic collapse, acute shortages, and sustained outward migration, placing immense strain on the regime. The analysis posits that the regime's resilience is being tested by a combination of internal pressures and the ongoing constraints of the US embargo. The discussion will examine how the Cuban state is coping with these mounting pressures, paying close attention to the varying roles of external actors, including the US, China, Russia, and Europe. Ultimately, the report aims to assess the geopolitical risks for both the Cuban population and US interests, highlighting the complexity of external intervention.
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72.Trump has an incentive to strike a deal with Iran, as midterms approach. But at what cost? (Chatham House)
The article argues that while the Trump administration has a strong political incentive to strike a deal with Iran before the midterms, the negotiation risks compromising U.S. national security. This pressure stems from the need to mitigate the war's economic fallout—such as inflation and high gas prices—which could be exploited by political opponents. Strategically, the U.S. has not achieved its war aims, as Iran retains significant nuclear and missile capabilities, and the regime remains intact. Therefore, any potential agreement must be highly detailed and verifiable, particularly regarding limits on Iran's nuclear program, to avoid creating a detrimental 'bad deal' for American security.
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73.
The Chatham House analysis highlights the critical role of grassroots, volunteer-led mutual aid groups, known as Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), in sustaining civilian life across Sudan since the 2023 conflict. These efforts are rooted in the local tradition of 'nafeer' (collective action), with Sudanese women playing a particularly vital role in providing medical and psychosocial support, especially against gender-based violence. The report emphasizes that these local responses are indispensable to the wider international humanitarian effort. Policymakers must therefore prioritize continued advocacy and direct support for these resilient, community-driven initiatives to ensure sustained humanitarian lifelines.
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74.US–Iran ceasefire: What it means for Trump, Tehran, Israel and US allies. Early analysis from Chatham House experts (Chatham House)
While the US-Iran ceasefire offers a temporary reprieve, experts warn that the agreement fails to resolve deep structural tensions, leaving critical issues like Iran's nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict in Lebanon unresolved. The truce was achieved through high-stakes brinkmanship, which simultaneously undermines international law and the credibility of US security guarantees. Strategically, the crisis forces regional powers and allies to reassess their dependencies, accelerating the need for new, localized defense and diplomatic architectures. Ultimately, the instability suggests that the region remains highly vulnerable to renewed escalation despite the current de-escalation.
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75.What lessons will China, India and other Asian nations draw from the Iran war? Independent Thinking Podcast (Chatham House)
The Iran conflict highlights the acute vulnerability of Asian economies due to their heavy reliance on Gulf energy imports. The immediate threat of the Strait of Hormuz closure demonstrates how quickly global choke points can trigger widespread shortages and rationing. Strategically, this forces Asian nations to undertake deep reckonings regarding their supply chains, economic dependencies, and the reliability of the US as a stable ally. Ultimately, the crisis compels Beijing, India, and Southeast Asia to reassess regional energy integration and geopolitical risk.
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76.
The conflict in the Middle East, particularly the US-Israeli war against Iran, has created global energy market pandemonium, allowing Russia to capitalize on the instability. This chaos is bolstering Russia's geostrategic position, establishing it as a resilient and indispensable energy supplier capable of easing global price pressures. Consequently, Russia is achieving a significant financial reversal, undermining the effectiveness of synchronized Western sanctions on its oil exports. Policymakers must reassess energy strategies, as Russia's supply remains a critical factor in global stability despite punitive measures.
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77.
The Chatham House analysis concludes that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open long-term requires a diplomatic strategy that makes the waterway's normal operation preferable to Iran's current assertion of control. Since Iran views its leverage as an existential asset, any solution must involve making the regime a direct beneficiary, potentially through structured sanctions relief or joint management ventures. Policy efforts should therefore focus on establishing multilateral, region-specific maritime security protocols—modeled after successful regional patrols—to coordinate law enforcement and build confidence among littoral states, thereby mitigating the risk of conflict.
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78.
The conflict in Iran has provided a significant economic windfall for Russia, counteracting the negative effects of Western sanctions and physical damage from Ukrainian strikes. Soaring global energy prices, combined with temporary easing of US sanctions, have boosted Russia's oil and gas export revenues, bolstering its budget and balance of payments. Strategically, this increased revenue stream enhances Russia's capacity to sustain its war effort in Ukraine and grants Putin greater leverage in global energy negotiations, though the benefit remains contingent on Ukraine's inability to disrupt physical export volumes.
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79.
According to a Chatham House interview, Syrian President al-Sharaa affirmed Syria's commitment to remaining neutral in the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, citing the devastating impact of previous wars on the Syrian people. He acknowledged Iran's past involvement in the Syrian conflict but emphasized a desire for a negotiated solution to the current crisis and expressed concern over regional economic disruption. While acknowledging past tensions with Hezbollah and Israel, al-Sharaa indicated efforts towards dialogue and border security, and reiterated a commitment to holding elections within five years, following initial steps and a constitutional declaration.
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80.
Chatham House's analysis finds that the escalating US-Israel war on Iran is significantly intensifying the conflict in Lebanon, with Israeli military actions already causing substantial casualties and displacement. The report highlights the potential for an Israeli military occupation of southern Lebanon, severely limiting the Lebanese government's response options and exacerbating internal tensions regarding Hezbollah's role. Experts suggest the conflict is unlikely to subside soon and will require substantial support for Lebanon's recovery. This underscores the urgent need for de-escalation efforts and humanitarian assistance to mitigate the crisis.
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81.Why are UK energy costs so high? And how to bring them down. Independent Thinking Podcast (Chatham House)
The Chatham House podcast argues that decades of inconsistent UK energy policies, rather than solely external factors, are primarily responsible for the country's high energy costs. The discussion highlights the complexities of balancing energy security, emissions reduction, and industrial competitiveness, suggesting a need for a more strategic and long-term approach. Experts propose considering increased nuclear power and potentially revisiting North Sea drilling to bolster supply while pursuing net-zero goals. Ultimately, the podcast implies a need for policy coherence and a reassessment of current strategies to ensure affordability and sustainability.
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82.
Chatham House argues that progress on international AI governance is currently stalled due to geopolitical tensions, institutional weaknesses, and public-private imbalances, suggesting that a significant AI-related crisis may be the only catalyst for rapid, binding global cooperation. The paper draws lessons from past crises like the 2008 financial crisis and the WannaCry attack, highlighting the importance of pre-existing institutions and technical expertise for effective crisis-driven governance. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize investing in foundational AI governance infrastructure now to be prepared for a potential crisis and facilitate a robust response.
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83.
Chatham House's "Africa Aware" analysis argues that the US-brokered "minerals for peace" approach in the DRC, leveraging the country's mineral wealth to secure peace agreements, carries significant risks. The approach prioritizes short-term stability but may neglect crucial issues like minority rights, the role of the African Union, and fragile state-society relations. This reliance on US investment and security guarantees potentially undermines the DRC's strategic autonomy and mining sovereignty, limiting President Tshisekedi's political options. Policymakers should consider a more holistic approach that addresses underlying governance and social issues alongside economic incentives.
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84.
Chatham House's latest Climate Briefing argues that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East highlights the inextricable link between fossil fuels, geopolitical vulnerability, and power dynamics, underscoring the complexities of the energy transition. Experts suggest that the shift to renewable energy sources will inevitably create geopolitical 'messiness' requiring careful management, and climate change impacts are actively reshaping global landscapes. The briefing emphasizes the need for governments to proactively navigate these challenges and learn from current events to ensure a stable and equitable energy future. Ultimately, the analysis calls for a more nuanced understanding of the interplay between climate, energy, and international security.
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85.
The ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran is exacerbating existing weaknesses in the global non-proliferation regime, potentially triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation. Concerns over US commitment to extended deterrence, particularly highlighted by the redeployment of THAAD systems, are fueling discussions about domestic nuclear capabilities in countries like Turkey, Poland, South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. The conflict reinforces the perception that nuclear weapons deter attack, and Iran's potential abandonment of the NPT and development of nuclear weapons could spark a regional arms race.
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86.
A new Chatham House report highlights that Iraq is increasingly bearing the brunt of the US-Iran conflict, with civilians facing increased risk from attacks and a severely strained economy. The war has exposed Iraq's dependence on Iranian natural gas for electricity and Iranian trade routes for oil exports, leading to rising food prices, a weakening currency, and potential salary cuts. This crisis risks further eroding public trust in the Iraqi government and could reignite pre-existing social and political grievances.
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87.
One month into the US-Israeli war with Iran, policymakers assess whether the conflict represents a regional crisis or a 1973-style global economic shock. The impact depends critically on conflict duration and Iran's blockade of Hormuz fuel and cargo shipments, yet conflicting signals about negotiations persist from both sides. Experts warn of potential inflation spikes and growth cuts mirroring 1973, with severe disruptions to energy flows and supply chains affecting Europe, Russia, and China. The unclear alignment between the US and Israel on end-game objectives further complicates prospects for negotiated resolution, increasing risks to global economic stability.
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88.
President Ahmed al-Sharaa outlines Syria's post-Assad transition strategy, focusing on reconstruction and diplomatic re-engagement following the regime's fall in late 2024. His government seeks to reintegrate Syria into the international community after years of isolation while navigating ongoing regional volatility and the country's stance in Middle East conflicts. Al-Sharaa's vision encompasses political and economic reforms, building accountable state institutions, and establishing Syria as a stabilizing force in regional affairs. This represents a critical shift from Syria's pariah status, with significant implications for regional security dynamics and international relations normalization. Success hinges on balancing domestic governance reforms with strategic positioning within a volatile geopolitical environment.
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89.
The Houthis' March 28 missile attack on Israel represents a significant escalation that reflects Iran's broader strategy of activating allied groups across the Middle East. This involvement threatens critical Red Sea shipping lanes and could trigger renewed large-scale Saudi-Houthi conflict worse than previous rounds of fighting. The escalation directly endangers Yemen's fragile peace efforts and threatens to deepen the humanitarian crisis affecting millions of civilians already facing severe food insecurity and limited healthcare access. The potential expansion of Houthi operations to target GCC infrastructure and Western military bases could dramatically increase regional instability and disrupt global energy supplies and shipping costs.
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90.Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia’s strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones (Chatham House)
Russia pursues a calculated strategy in the Iran-Israel conflict, acting as spectator, beneficiary, and player while avoiding direct military entanglement. Moscow provides diplomatic support and likely drone assistance to Iran while maintaining deconfliction channels with Israel and the US, extracting advantage without assuming proportional risks. Disruptions in Gulf energy markets have tightened global crude supplies, improving Russia's fiscal position and demonstrating resilience under sanctions. This selective engagement approach reinforces Moscow's narrative of indispensability across multiple theaters and strengthens its negotiating position on Ukraine. Russia's Middle East gains directly feed into the diplomatic calculus, potentially shifting US focus from weakening Russia to managing it, which could increase pressure on Kyiv to accept compromise.
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91.
President Tinubu's state visit to the UK marks Nigeria's highest-level diplomatic engagement with Britain since 1989, aimed at deepening economic partnerships and security cooperation. While Tinubu's visible foreign policy approach has achieved macroeconomic improvements—inflation falling from 30% to 15% and improved international credit ratings—these gains have not materially improved conditions for most Nigerians, who face rising poverty and food insecurity. Nigeria's trade with the UK (£8.1 billion annually) remains modest compared to China (£16.5 billion), and the economy continues to be dominated by hydrocarbons without significant diversification, leaving it vulnerable to commodity shocks. The article argues that diplomatic engagement and foreign investment alone cannot address Nigeria's structural deficits in electricity, education, health, and security—ranked 6th globally on terrorism. Sustainable progress requires complementary domestic structural reforms alongside international partnerships to tackle the long-term drivers of insecurity and economic stagnation.
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92.
Russia employs 'cyber proxies'—criminal groups, hacktivists, and private entities with varying degrees of state direction—to conduct disruptive cyberattacks against Ukraine while maintaining plausible deniability and complicating attribution. This proxy model shields the Russian state from sanctions while making coordinated response difficult. Chatham House proposes a strategic approach integrating international and domestic law with cost-imposition and disruption tactics to establish deterrence against cyber proxies of any origin, replacing ad-hoc tactical responses with comprehensive, enabling policies.
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93.
Western aid is undergoing a fundamental shift from altruistic framing to explicit conditionality tied to donor national interests, exemplified by the US threatening to withdraw health funding from Zambia to secure preferential access to mineral resources and pathogen data. Driven by fiscal constraints and domestic populism in donor countries, G7 development assistance has fallen 28 percent since 2024, with recipient countries increasingly rejecting unfavorable deals that could impact an estimated 23 million lives by 2030. This transparency paradoxically enables more honest negotiations and stronger recipient accountability, though only if countries build stronger safeguards into aid agreements with longer transition periods. Policymakers advocating for aid should emphasize global health interdependence and shared security interests rather than pure altruism to maintain political viability in fiscally constrained environments.
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94.
The Iran war underscores the growing normalization of AI-supported targeting in modern warfare, raising significant concerns about its implications. While AI tools enhance efficiency in data processing and target identification, incidents like the alleged strike on an Iranian school highlight risks such as inaccuracies from faulty data and the reduction of human judgment in critical decisions. This trend necessitates the development of clear rules for AI use in conflict to mitigate errors and prevent civilian harm, even as a binding international framework remains distant.
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95.
Syria's effective foreign policy in insulating itself from regional conflicts masks the deeper risk of its unresolved internal divisions. This is highlighted by the recent Israeli airstrike in Sweida, which occurred amidst internal clashes and demonstrated how domestic instability continues to invite external intervention despite diplomatic gains. The government's reliance on external, elite-level agreements over inclusive national dialogue leaves critical issues of governance and power-sharing unaddressed. Lasting stability therefore hinges on establishing a credible and transparent national process to foster internal consensus and legitimacy, rather than solely depending on external diplomatic maneuvers.
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96.
President Trump's military campaign against Iran, now three weeks in, is failing to secure international support despite his appeals to NATO and other allies. The US administration faces reluctance from traditional partners to participate or be drawn into the conflict, driven by concerns about regional instability, economic disruption, and the risks of Tehran's retaliatory escalation. The muted European response and lukewarm Gulf state backing complicate the broader strategic objective of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic isolation raises questions about US credibility and alliance cohesion precisely when the administration is simultaneously managing crises in Ukraine, Cuba, and Venezuela.
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97.
The 2026 London conference will convene leaders to address the rapidly shifting international order, driven by US policy changes and China's growing global influence. Discussions will center on preserving essential aspects of the old order, reforming international institutions like the WTO and UN, and coordinating responses to new challenges such as environmental change and AI. The event aims to identify pathways to stability and cooperation, recognizing the increasing role of the Global South in shaping this evolving global landscape.
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98.
The article examines whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE should shift from defensive to offensive military operations against Iran. While both nations possess advanced air forces capable of striking Iranian targets, significant risks—including Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure, potential US military withdrawal, and severe domestic political consequences of appearing aligned with Israel—make escalation strategically perilous. The economic case for offense is compelling, as Iran's cheaper drone strategy financially exhausts defenders; however, direct military confrontation could irreversibly damage future diplomatic relations and destabilize Gulf governments facing internal security threats. The Gulf Arab states face an unsustainable dilemma: continued defense drains resources while offensive operations risk catastrophic blowback.
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99.
Chatham House organized a policy hackathon where 22 young people developed creative proposals for responsible AI adoption in government. Participants created innovative solutions including 'Guardian Angel,' a security-focused AI system analyzing employee access patterns, alongside ideas for AI-enabled health intelligence platforms and trade-risk detection systems. The exercise highlighted the significant complexity governments face in scaling emerging technologies while balancing transparency, democracy, security, sovereignty, and cost-effectiveness—a critical challenge for policymakers globally.
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100.Kazakhstan is rewriting its constitution. Is it an exercise in authoritarian modernisation? (Chatham House)
Kazakhstan is implementing sweeping constitutional amendments, including introducing a vice presidency and dissolving the upper house of parliament, which the government presents as modernization. However, critics argue these changes consolidate executive power and weaken existing checks and balances. The reforms raise critical questions about Kazakhstan's political trajectory, implications for presidential succession before the 2029 elections, the fate of Nazarbayev-era elites, and the country's relationship with Russia.
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101.
The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS and formation of the Alliance of Sahel States has fractured regional security cooperation at a critical moment, as the Sahel faces the world's highest terrorism burden according to the Global Terrorism Index. Essential security mechanisms have stalled on key cooperation issues including joint military operations, intelligence sharing, hot pursuit rights, and tackling illicit finance. Ghana and Nigeria's foreign ministers are advocating for localized security solutions adapted to the new regional configuration, suggesting West African security strategies must now function within a fragmented institutional landscape rather than traditional ECOWAS frameworks.
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102.Starmer’s handling of Trump and Iran reflects public opinion, but shows the limits of UK power (Chatham House)
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's cautious response to the Iran war initially aligned with British public opinion (59% opposition to the conflict), generating domestic political support but triggering friction with an unpredictable Trump administration. While Starmer's decision to deny US military base access reflected public sentiment, he later made gradual concessions to sustain the UK-US relationship, creating a delicate balancing act between alliance obligations and domestic priorities. The prolonged conflict now threatens his two core objectives: achieving economic recovery (interest rate cuts delayed, energy and food costs rising) and maintaining strong ties with Trump, while exposing significant gaps in UK military capability and straining relations with Gulf allies and Cyprus. The article highlights a fundamental strategic dilemma for Britain: whether closer alignment with the US enables greater influence over decisions or whether maintaining distance better protects national interests, with major implications for UK autonomy and its future role in the Middle East.
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103.
The Kremlin is implementing widespread internet blackouts and censorship, extending to major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, to tighten its grip on Russia's digital space, citing security and national control. These measures include banning popular social media and messaging apps while promoting state-controlled alternatives, impacting daily life and suppressing protests for internet freedom. The shutdowns have caused significant economic disruption, costing local businesses millions daily and threatening small and medium-sized enterprises with bankruptcy. This aggressive digital control strategy reflects the regime's growing anxieties and will likely test the public's tolerance and potential for dissent.
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104.
The Chatham House article "AI and National Security: Who's Really in Control?" investigates the growing tension between governments and AI companies over the control and governance of artificial intelligence, particularly concerning national security implications, highlighted by the US designating Anthropic a national security threat. The discussion aims to clarify who wields control when national security is at stake, especially as AI companies gain significant leverage over states. Key questions revolve around whether AI firms should be considered national security infrastructure and who bears accountability for military decisions relying on private AI systems. The implications for democracy, global order, and world security are profound, necessitating clear policy definitions.
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105.Justice for Ukraine: Supporting survivors of war crimes and building international solidarity (Chatham House)
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to over 200,000 documented atrocities, presenting a significant challenge to delivering justice. The article advocates for Ukraine to adopt a transitional justice framework that combines prosecutions, truth-seeking, reparations, and institutional reform to manage the vast scale of war crimes. This approach aims to ensure meaningful, victim-centered justice without overwhelming the legal system and addresses complex issues such as enforcing verdicts against Russian leaders and engaging international partners. A robust transitional justice policy is seen as vital for building international solidarity and navigating the conflict's aftermath.
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106.
China's established investment-and-export-led economic growth model is encountering severe systemic pressures, marked by diminishing investment returns and a deflationary domestic market. To address these issues, China is implementing an "AI Plus" Initiative, aiming to integrate artificial intelligence across its economy for modernization by 2035. However, significant internal challenges like an aging population, low productivity growth, and high youth unemployment raise doubts about the sustainability of this model and AI's capacity to fulfill the state's ambitious economic and political objectives.
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107.
Sudan's volunteer-led Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) were awarded the Chatham House Prize 2025 for their crucial humanitarian efforts amidst the ongoing conflict. This grassroots network, operating since April 2023, provides essential aid, medical support, education, and addresses gender-based violence to over thirty-three million displaced people across Sudan, often in areas inaccessible to international organizations. The recognition underscores the vital role of local initiatives in humanitarian crises, calling for sustained international support to protect civic spaces and empower Sudanese efforts for future rebuilding and transformation.
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108.
The film "Facing War" provides an exclusive, inside look at NATO's high-stakes diplomacy during a critical period, showcasing the alliance's internal decision-making spaces. It documents tense negotiations with world leaders such as US President Joe Biden, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, focusing on support for Ukraine. The documentary highlights the challenges of balancing aid to Ukraine with concerns about escalating the conflict, reflecting the fragile unity and geopolitical friction within the alliance.
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109.
The US-Israel war on Iran has caused significant spikes in global energy and gas prices, threatening long-term damage to the region's energy sector and broader economy. Experts highlight the evolving energy and economic implications, including risks to energy supply, trade flows, inflation, and a broader shift towards economic fragmentation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Gulf economies are navigating these pressures by assessing their resilience and developing policy responses to recover within this volatile global environment.
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110.
Prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon threatens to backfire strategically by strengthening Hezbollah rather than weakening it. The analysis argues that military presence will further destabilize Lebanon's fragile state institutions, which are already struggling to provide services and establish legitimacy after recent conflicts. While Hezbollah suffered significant losses following Israel's decapitation of its leadership in September 2024, continued Israeli military operations create conditions for the group to reconstitute as a dispersed guerrilla force and rebuild popular support, particularly among Lebanese Shia communities. The report recommends prioritizing international support to strengthen Lebanese state capacity and provide essential services, coupled with diplomatic efforts to address external Iranian support for Hezbollah, rather than relying on military occupation to achieve disarmament.
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111.
Venezuelan exiles in Miami face a paradoxical situation where the removal of Nicolás Maduro has brought joy but also heightened uncertainty regarding their legal status in the United States. The Trump administration’s suspension of Temporary Protected Status, combined with its pragmatic endorsement of Maduro loyalists in the transitional government, creates significant anxiety for the diaspora. These trends suggest a policy shift that prioritizes regional energy security and diplomatic normalization over the humanitarian and legal protections previously granted to Venezuelan migrants.
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112.
GCC states are increasingly embracing 'hard power' and diversifying security partnerships as trust in US security guarantees collapses following military escalations with Iran and the perceived flaws of the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan. While Gulf nations initially supported US initiatives to maintain diplomatic favor, the plan’s exclusion of Palestinian political agency and its failure to prevent Iranian retaliatory strikes against GCC territory have exposed critical strategic vulnerabilities. These developments have demonstrated the high cost of dependency on a US policy that fails to constrain Israeli actions or ensure regional safety. Consequently, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are transitioning toward more autonomous defense strategies and broader international coalitions to navigate worsening regional volatility.
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113.
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a significant maritime crisis, centered on Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent disruption of Indian Ocean trade routes. Iran is employing asymmetric tactics, including coastal missile strikes and GPS jamming, to impose risks on shipping even as the US increases seizures of vessels linked to illicit trade. This environment of navigation interference and 'dark' shipping is driving traffic toward the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in higher costs and increased exposure to piracy.
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114.
Greenland is currently navigating a surge in US interest driven by President Trump’s ambitions for its critical minerals and strategic location, while simultaneously facing the more existential threat of rapid Arctic warming. While Washington views the island as a 'near-domestic' solution to counter Chinese mineral dominance, local leaders are resisting being treated as a geopolitical 'chessboard' and are instead prioritizing sovereignty and partnerships with the EU and Denmark. The article highlights that while melting ice reveals new mineral wealth, the resulting environmental instability poses significant risks to the island's infrastructure and its vital fishing industry. Ultimately, Greenland’s strategy focuses on balancing economic development with strict environmental safeguards and the maintenance of its communal land traditions.
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115.
This article draws parallels between Britain’s current rearmament challenges and its 1930s struggle, arguing that the UK must transition from economic caution to an urgency driven by the fear of strategic defeat. Historically, this shift required overcoming political paralysis and eventually framing defense spending as a means to protect democratic values and stimulate economic revival. Consequently, modern policy may need to embrace a more interventionist state role, utilizing defense contracts to foster domestic innovation while preparing the public for the social and political costs of increased security.
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116.
The article argues that African nations are increasingly exercising 'resource sovereignty' to manage their critical mineral wealth, challenging the paternalistic Western assumption that the continent requires external oversight to avoid exploitation. It highlights how countries like Burkina Faso and South Africa are leveraging global competition between the US and China to secure better infrastructure investments and nationalize key mining assets. For Western policymakers, this shift necessitates a move away from moralizing interventions toward engaging African states as equal economic partners capable of navigating geopolitical rivalries for their own benefit.
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117.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) prioritizes clean energy expansion and economic resilience over specific emission reduction targets, signaling a strategic pivot toward technological supremacy. The blueprint emphasizes dominating global green tech production to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly those exposed by the Iran war and other geopolitical instabilities. Consequently, China is increasingly integrating its climate ambitions with broader foreign policy goals, leveraging its lead in clean technology to reshape international energy markets and challenge Western industrial competitiveness.
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118.
Bob Rae asserts that Canada is undergoing a profound strategic pivot, moving away from traditional reliance on the United States in response to a 'rupture' in the rules-based international order. This shift is evidenced by Canada’s commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and the launch of its first-ever Defence Industrial Strategy to protect manufacturing and scientific capacity. The primary implication is that Canada will increasingly prioritize multilateral partnerships with Europe and the Asia-Pacific to safeguard its sovereignty, particularly regarding Arctic security and Ukraine, amidst growing US isolationism and volatility.
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119.
The article argues that structural domestic factors, rather than just the US-Israeli war with Iran, are driving a long-term increase in US energy prices. Rising demand from data centers and expanded LNG exports are clashing with a tightening supply as the Trump administration rolls back low-cost renewable energy incentives and faces higher extraction costs from expensive gas basins. Consequently, American consumers are likely to experience significantly higher electricity and fuel costs, a trend exacerbated by deregulation and the removal of efficiency standards.
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120.The Iran war should boost security cooperation by US Pacific allies like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea (Chatham House)
The war between the US and Iran is prompting Indo-Pacific allies—Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines—to pursue deeper trilateral security cooperation to compensate for the sudden withdrawal of American military assets from the region. Recent redeployments of missile defense systems and Marines to the Middle East have highlighted the risks of over-reliance on US commitments, particularly as regional threats from China and North Korea persist. To mitigate this uncertainty, the article advocates for a formal trilateral arrangement to enhance military interoperability, intelligence sharing, and regional stability independent of shifting US defense priorities.
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121.
The article argues that a robust security alliance between Poland and Germany is essential for European defense amidst rising Russian aggression and declining US reliability. This partnership is currently stifled by historical grievances, Polish domestic political infighting, and German strategic reluctance regarding defense investment and historical atonement. To overcome these barriers, the two nations are pursuing 'military diplomacy' through a bilateral defense agreement and multilateral security formats to modernize infrastructure and resupply national arsenals. Failure to solidify this axis risks leaving Europe vulnerable if Polish leadership continues to prioritize a potentially unreliable US partnership over regional integration.
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122.
The 2026 NPT review conference faces significant obstacles following the expiration of the New START treaty and a shift in US nuclear policy toward more aggressive deterrence and less emphasis on denuclearization. Experts caution that allegations of secret nuclear tests and the potential resumption of global testing threaten to unleash a new arms race, undermining decades of non-proliferation efforts. As confidence in traditional US security guarantees and NATO’s Article V wanes, European allies are increasingly compelled to seek alternative collective defense and deterrence arrangements.
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123.
The article analyzes the resilience and adaptation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” amid unprecedented US and Israeli efforts to dismantle the network and target Tehran directly. While the June 2025 conflict marked a shift toward direct Iranian action, proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis continue to survive and evolve despite sustained decapitation campaigns. The persistence of these actors implies that current containment strategies are failing to fully degrade the network, requiring a fundamental reassessment of security policies in the Middle East.
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124.
Western governments must shift from merely incentivizing private mining to taking direct equity stakes in the industry to secure critical mineral supplies and counter China’s market dominance. The report highlights that the US is already leveraging billions in state-backed financing and board-level control to mitigate geopolitical vulnerabilities, a model the UK and EU must follow to prevent deindustrialization. This strategic shift requires mobilizing politically guided capital to provide the long-term investment necessary for mining projects that are often commercially unviable due to high volatility and low prices. Failure to secure these supply chains through direct ownership risks leaving critical manufacturing sectors vulnerable to foreign export controls and trade disruptions.
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125.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that a more flexible and differentiated model of European integration is essential for the continent to remain resilient and competitive amid rising geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes the need for pragmatic mechanisms that allow member states to respond rapidly to challenges in defense, energy, and technology without losing their shared sense of purpose. Ultimately, this approach is presented as a way to strengthen the European Union's collective ability to protect its interests and values in an era of shifting global alliances.
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126.
President Lula’s diplomatic ambiguity following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro is jeopardizing his reelection prospects and Brazil’s regional standing as Washington asserts hemispheric dominance. While Lula condemned the US raid as an affront to sovereignty, a majority of the Brazilian public supports the operation, allowing political opponents to frame his stance as a defense of authoritarianism. Consequently, Brazil risks being sidelined by US President Trump’s aggressive regional agenda or overwhelmed by potential instability and refugee flows if the Venezuelan transition fails. This strategic bind suggests that maintaining a neutral path without a clear pivot toward democratic principles may cost Lula his presidency and cede regional leadership to the United States.
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127.
The 2026 Eurovision Song Contest marks a strategic shift toward transparency as organizers abandon noise-canceling technology previously used to muffle audience booing and political dissent. Driven by the Austrian broadcaster's commitment to realism, this change highlights the contest's deep fragmentation, exemplified by the withdrawal of five nations in protest of Israel's participation. The article argues that Eurovision has evolved into a primary arena where public sentiment mirrors the geopolitical tensions found in formal diplomatic institutions like the UN. For strategists, this evolution illustrates how cultural platforms are increasingly serving as visible barometers for regional polarization and the breakdown of enforced internationalism.
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128.How the Russian Orthodox Church is recruiting for the Ukraine war – and alienating believers (Chatham House)
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has transitioned into a key recruitment and ideological tool for the Russian state, framing the invasion of Ukraine as a 'holy mission' to justify the conflict. The church utilizes military chaplains as front-line enforcers to prevent desertion while weaponizing 'traditional values' narratives to influence Western conservatives and undermine military aid to Ukraine. This aggressive alignment with the Kremlin is alienating domestic believers and leading to a decline in religious participation within Russia. Consequently, policymakers must recognize the ROC's role as a sophisticated soft-power instrument designed to exploit cultural divisions in the West.
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129.China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply (Chatham House)
China’s 15th Five Year Plan codifies a long-term shift toward economic resilience and technological self-reliance, driven by perceived vulnerabilities in globalized supply chains and geopolitical instability like the Iran war. The strategy emphasizes 'AI Plus' initiatives and increased R&D spending to secure autonomy in semiconductors, quantum tech, and digital infrastructure. However, this transition faces significant headwinds, including record-low growth targets and a capital-intensive tech focus that struggles to absorb a highly educated workforce. Ultimately, Beijing is prioritizing national security and high-quality manufacturing over the debt-driven, rapid expansion models of the past.
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130.
The article argues that the shift toward domestic-focused economic policies and the decline of U.S.-led 'hegemonic stability' are creating a precarious environment for global trade. Drawing on historical precedents like the Pax Britannica and Pax Americana, it suggests that trade growth flourishes when a dominant power fosters international policy alignment, which is now fracturing. Consequently, rising protectionism threatens to trigger a vicious cycle of economic decline, disproportionately harming emerging and developing nations that rely on open market integration.
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131.
Europe faces a critical challenge from a second wave of nationalist populism that seeks to hollow out EU integration from within rather than pursuing an exit strategy. Supported by geopolitical shifts in Russia and the US, these far-right movements have normalized their agendas—particularly regarding migration and climate—within mainstream parties and are increasingly influencing EU-level legislation through deregulatory 'omnibus' packages. The upcoming 2026 elections, starting with Hungary, will determine if Europe can maintain the unity necessary to resist becoming 'easy prey' for foreign spheres of influence or if it will fracture into weakened, competing nationalist states.
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132.
The 2025 Chatham House Prize has been awarded to Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) for their vital humanitarian work during the country's ongoing civil war between the SAF and RSF. Operating in areas often inaccessible to international organizations, these grassroots networks provide essential food, water, and medical supplies while maintaining critical infrastructure under significant risk. This recognition underscores the indispensable role of localized, impartial mutual aid groups in addressing one of the world's largest displacement and humanitarian crises.
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133.
The article argues that traditional cartographic conventions, which emphasize clean borders and jigsaw-puzzle shapes, fail to represent the complex realities of modern geopolitics and overlapping sovereignty. By examining cases like Greenland’s strategic connectivity and the South China Sea's ambiguous claims, the author illustrates how simplified maps can reinforce outdated mental models and obscure critical strategic data. For policymakers, embracing 'messier' maps that visualize strategic ambiguities and feathered edges of maritime rights is crucial for an accurate assessment of national security interests. This shift allows for a more nuanced understanding of frozen conflicts and the multi-layered nature of international relations.
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134.
The United States must leverage international partnerships and multilateral frameworks to break China’s dominant 'chokehold' on critical mineral supply chains essential for defense and high-tech industries. While previous unilateral approaches hindered progress, emerging 2026 initiatives like 'Project Vault' and the 'Forge' forum signal a strategic shift toward a collaborative 'Metals NATO' model. To successfully compete with China’s predatory pricing, U.S. policy must prioritize early-stage project funding and high environmental and labor standards to attract producing nations. These coordinated efforts are vital for securing the resilient supply chains required for national security and the global energy transition.
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135.
The spring issue of Chatham House’s The World Today analyzes the 'Trump Effect,' arguing that Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency has fundamentally disrupted the global order through aggressive military actions and a retreat from traditional leadership. Key evidence includes the failure of Iran’s defense strategy following U.S. strikes, the capture of Venezuela’s leader, and a shift toward prioritizing economic security over global trade. These developments are forcing traditional allies like the UK and Canada to radically reassess their security dependencies and diplomatic strategies as the U.S. withdraws from its traditional global role.
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136.Could Vietnam’s new South China Sea bases open a ‘Pandora’s box’ of competitive island building? (Chatham House)
Vietnam is rapidly expanding its military footprint in the South China Sea by conducting land reclamation and infrastructure development across all 21 of its controlled features in the Spratly Islands. This strategic move, which includes building harbors and airstrips, aims to counter China's established presence and assert sovereignty over contested maritime zones. The escalation of competitive island building among regional claimants increases the risk of maritime clashes and threatens the stability of vital global shipping lanes. Ultimately, this militarization could trigger a broader cycle of regional tension, complicating international efforts to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.
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137.
The UK government faces a widening fiscal gap in its defense budget, threatening the implementation of its 2025 Strategic Defence Review and commitments to NATO. Despite pledges to reach a 3.5% GDP spending target, the Ministry of Defence already contends with a £17 billion equipment funding deficit and potential cuts to major land and naval programs. Failure to reconcile these gaps through increased taxation or borrowing may force the UK to either abandon its nuclear capability or cede its status as Europe’s leading military power. The forthcoming Defence Investment Plan will be the ultimate test of whether Britain can realistically sustain its global security ambitions.
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138.
Chatham House argues that Iran's long-standing 'forward defence' strategy has backfired, drawing the Islamic Republic into a direct and existential war with the U.S. and Israel. The systemic weakening of the 'axis of resistance'—marked by the fall of the Assad regime and significant losses for Hezbollah and Hamas—has collapsed the proxy-based shield Tehran used to avoid direct confrontation. As a result, Iran faces a severe degradation of its regional influence and must now manage a conflict on its own soil that it spent four decades trying to externalize. This strategic 'boomerang' likely necessitates a fundamental and painful reconfiguration of Iran’s national security doctrine.
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139.
The article challenges the Western perception of Chinese internet users as 'mindless automatons,' arguing instead that they are 'wall dancers' who innovatively navigate the 'Great Firewall' through a mix of resistance and adaptation. It highlights how individuals—from feminist activists to tech entrepreneurs—leverage cycles of political loosening and use creative wordplay or strategic framing to maintain agency despite increasing authoritarianism. The findings suggest that policymakers should move beyond viewing China solely through a lens of national security or economic threat, instead recognizing the complex, dynamic, and often contradictory nature of its civil society.
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140.Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK (Chatham House)
Finnish President Alexander Stubb contends that the EU and UK must abandon the 'punishment' mindset following Brexit to establish a pragmatic, flexible partnership. Citing shared values and the geopolitical pressure of an aggressive Russia, he advocates for closer ties in security, technology, and potential reintegration into the customs union or internal market. Stubb argues that European resilience depends on the UK’s voice in critical areas such as competition reform and climate change. This suggests a strategic shift toward 'flexible integration' to ensure regional stability and economic strength in a changing global order.
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141.The Iran war is exacting a heavy toll on Gulf oil and gas exporters – and creating risk and opportunity in North Africa (Chatham House)
The US-Israeli conflict with Iran is severely disrupting Gulf energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major producers to rely on insufficient and vulnerable alternative pipeline routes. This disruption is straining national budgets, especially in oil-dependent Iraq, and threatening the long-term market share of Gulf LNG as Asian buyers seek more reliable suppliers. In North Africa, the crisis presents a dual reality where energy importers like Egypt face significant inflationary pressures, while exporters like Algeria benefit from higher prices. These developments underscore the strategic fragility of the Gulf's economic model and may accelerate a permanent global shift in energy trade patterns and infrastructure.
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142.AI wars: Anthropic battles the Pentagon as China plans ahead. Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
This Chatham House podcast discusses the deepening rift between the Pentagon and AI provider Anthropic over the company's ethical restrictions on lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The dispute, which led to the firm being labeled a 'supply chain risk,' reveals a significant gap in global AI governance and the lack of established rules for AI in modern warfare. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its 'AI Plus' initiative to integrate artificial intelligence across its entire economic and military infrastructure. These developments highlight a critical need for policy frameworks that balance national security requirements with technological ethics and international competition.
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143.Kazakhstan referendum: The new constitution demonstrates a diminishing interest in Western values (Chatham House)
Kazakhstan’s comprehensive constitutional overhaul signals a strategic departure from Western liberal models in favor of a state-led, institutionalized authoritarian system similar to China’s. The amendments consolidate President Tokayev’s power and assert domestic law supremacy over international treaties, potentially undermining legal protections for foreign investors in the extractive sectors. While the reforms may strengthen national sovereignty against Russian influence, they also provide the state with greater leverage to restrict civil liberties and manage long-term political succession.
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144.Nigeria and Ghana foreign ministers discuss security, AES countries, Boko Haram and US operations (Chatham House)
West African foreign ministers emphasize that regional security and peacebuilding must be driven by locally-led solutions, citing the historical success of ECOMOG as a preferred model over direct foreign military intervention. They argue that regional violence is driven by a complex interplay of youth unemployment, climate change, and state collapse rather than purely religious motivations, necessitating a more nuanced international perspective. Consequently, they call for a supportive rather than direct role for the United States and a reset of relations with France. Furthermore, the ministers warn that the international community must take greater responsibility for African stability to prevent the region from becoming a safe haven for terrorist cells displaced from other global conflicts.
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145.
Marion Messmer argues that international security is becoming increasingly volatile due to the proliferation of nuclear deterrence and the democratization of military technology like drones. She highlights how intangible advancements in AI and cyber-operations are reshaping the battlefield, making it harder to track adversaries and manage escalation. Ultimately, she suggests that while technology and non-state actors present significant new risks, incorporating diverse perspectives into the male-dominated security field is essential for building more resilient and durable peace.
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146.
The article emphasizes that Belarus's strategic location makes it a critical factor in European security, arguing that transitioning the country from a Russian ally to a European asset would stabilize the region. It points to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as evidence of how Russia exploits Belarusian territory to extend its military reach and threaten neighboring NATO members. While Lukashenka is currently tethered to Moscow for economic survival, his flexible foreign policy ideology suggests potential for shift if the West provides viable alternatives. Strategically, decoupling Belarus from the Kremlin's orbit would dismantle a major platform for Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.
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147.
The article reviews four new publications that analyze the intellectual and historical drivers of contemporary global shifts, ranging from climate diplomacy to the rise of American anti-liberalism. These works examine the personal dynamics of UN climate negotiations, the haphazard legacy of Asian partitions, the ideologues behind the MAGA movement, and the impact of academic narratives on China policy. The central argument is that individual agency and ideological frameworks are critical, often overlooked factors in shaping international relations and domestic political trends. Consequently, policymakers must look beyond immediate crises to understand these deeper ideological roots to effectively navigate geopolitical rivalries and strengthen multilateral cooperation.
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148.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Washington underscores the strain on the Japan-US alliance as Japan’s oil-dependent economy suffers from US-led Middle East conflicts while facing pressure to increase defense spending. Despite significant commitments to Trump’s missile defense plans and tariff agreements, Japan remains wary of the US's long-term reliability in countering China’s regional assertiveness. Consequently, Tokyo is shifting its strategy toward greater self-reliance and the cultivation of diverse security and economic partnerships, such as with Australia and the CPTPP, to uphold a rules-based international order.
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149.
The escalating military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran introduces significant geopolitical variables that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that a protracted US entanglement in the Middle East risks diverting critical resources and diplomatic focus away from Kyiv, potentially fracturing Western unity. Conversely, while regional instability might weaken Russia's strategic partnership with Iran, surging oil prices could provide Moscow with a vital financial cushion to sustain its offensive despite international sanctions.
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150.
The strategic rivalry between the United States and China is evolving into a comprehensive contest for global influence, technological dominance, and economic security. This competition, spanning industrial policy and defense modernization, is actively fragmenting global supply chains and forcing international actors to reassess their strategic alliances. Consequently, the trajectory of this superpower relationship will define the future of global governance and regional security, requiring policymakers to navigate a landscape where limited cooperation must be balanced against systemic confrontation.
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151.
Iraq’s fragile stability is under significant strain as the escalating US-Israel-Iran war forces the country into a dangerous regional crossfire. The conflict has triggered direct military confrontations between US forces and Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, while simultaneously threatening Iraq’s energy security and oil-dependent economy. With government formation stalled following the 2025 elections, the country’s leadership faces immense pressure to maintain a neutral balancing strategy to prevent external shocks from devolving into domestic collapse.
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152.
The House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee is examining the future of UK-US relations amidst a shift toward a more transactional American approach to alliances under the second Trump administration. The inquiry highlights how long-term political trends in the US are reshaping its global outlook, posing significant challenges to the traditional rules-based international order. To navigate this volatile strategic environment, UK policymakers must adapt their foreign, defense, and economic strategies to address shifting US priorities and ensure the continuity of the transatlantic partnership.
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153.Leadership and representation in international relations: building on women’s legacy (Chatham House)
This panel discussion highlights the significant historical and ongoing contributions of women to international relations and diplomacy, emphasizing the need for continued progress toward gender equity. By examining career paths and the theme of 'Give to Gain', the event aims to inspire and support the next generation of female practitioners and academics. The initiative underscores the strategic importance of diverse representation and allyship in evolving the field of international affairs.
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154.
This session examines the geopolitical fallout from coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, which were conducted with the explicit goal of regime change. Experts analyze Iran's retaliatory capabilities and the potential for domestic uprisings, while assessing the risks of a broader regional conflict involving additional actors. The discussion highlights the urgent need to identify de-escalation pathways to mitigate further destabilization of the Middle East.
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155.
As the US scales back military support and pressures Ukraine for a quick peace settlement, European nations are stepping up to replace the US as Ukraine's primary donor and security guarantor. Kyiv faces significant domestic pressure against territorial concessions, while European allies are 'Trump-proofing' support through massive financial aid, new procurement mechanisms, and direct investment in Ukraine's defense industrial base. This strategic shift integrates Ukraine into Europe’s security architecture and leverages battlefield innovations, such as low-cost drone production, to sustain Ukraine's long-term defensive capabilities. Consequently, Europe's proactive role is essential for ensuring Ukraine can resist coercive diplomacy and negotiate from a position of strength.
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156.
The film 'The President’s Cake' examines how authoritarian power in Iraq was sustained through everyday social practices and internal control rather than through coercion alone. It highlights that regime durability often depends on the shaping of societal behavior to reinforce compliance under oppressive systems. These insights are critical for understanding contemporary Middle Eastern political trajectories, state-society relations, and the enduring legacies of authoritarian control on reform prospects.
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157.Ukrainian ambassador Valerii Zaluzhnyi says future wars will require ‘technological alliances, not treaty articles’ (Chatham House)
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, argues that future warfare will be defined by autonomous robotic systems, necessitating international 'technological alliances' over traditional treaty frameworks. He emphasizes that no single nation can master all critical military technologies, requiring a collective approach to counter threats and ensure military effectiveness with fewer casualties. To secure victory, Zaluzhnyi advocates for sustained economic pressure to push Russia's economy to a breaking point, highlighting a strategic shift toward technology-sharing and economic attrition as primary tools of modern defense.
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158.Chatham House appoints Owen Jenkins as Research Director for Africa, Middle East and North Africa, and Asia Pacific (Chatham House)
Chatham House has appointed senior British diplomat Owen Jenkins as Research Director for Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Asia Pacific. Jenkins brings extensive experience from the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, including roles as Director General for the Indo-Pacific and Ambassador to Indonesia. His appointment is strategically designed to enhance the institute's analysis of the evolving world order, shifting global alliances, and the rising influence of regional powers. This move integrates high-level diplomatic expertise into the institute's executive leadership to strengthen its external influence and policy impact across the Global South.
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159.US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs: Early analysis from Chatham House experts (Chatham House)
The US Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs, ruling that the administration exceeded its executive authority. Despite this legal setback, the White House immediately pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to implement a new 15% global tariff, though experts warn this move remains vulnerable to further litigation. Ultimately, the ruling fails to restore predictability to US trade policy, forcing global partners to navigate continued protectionist volatility and pursue long-term trade diversification strategies.
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160.
Chatham House argues that Europe’s far-right parties are reframing themselves as pragmatic “realists” and are no longer fringe actors, with growing influence over mainstream policy agendas. The discussion highlights how their electoral rise is already shifting debates on migration, sovereignty, climate policy, and the EU’s strategic direction, even before full control of government. It reasons that if multiple major European states were governed by populists at once, the core uncertainty is whether they would moderate in office or intensify nationalist positions. The policy implication is that European governments and institutions should prepare for stress on cohesion, including weaker alignment on Ukraine and climate, more difficult UK-EU coordination, and stronger need for organized democratic counter-mobilization.
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161.
The global health architecture is shifting from multilateral cooperation toward transactional bilateralism, characterized by new strategies that tie health aid to commercial interests and strategic resource access. In response, Africa is pursuing 'health sovereignty' by prioritizing regional manufacturing, unified procurement mechanisms, and internal reforms to eliminate systemic inefficiencies and aid dependency. This transition signals a move away from traditional grant-based assistance toward a model of 'commercial diplomacy,' requiring recipient nations to leverage collective bargaining and domestic financing to maintain policy agency.
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162.Chatham House appoints Professor Marc Weller as the new Director of the Global Governance and Security Centre (Chatham House)
Chatham House’s announcement frames Marc Weller’s appointment as a leadership move to strengthen the Global Governance and Security Centre at a moment when international order is under strain. The core claim is that, despite geopolitical fragmentation, urgent transnational problems still require rule-based global cooperation on security, health preparedness, AI governance, and international law. The institute supports this by highlighting Weller’s credentials across academia, UN mediation and legal advisory roles, and recent policy interventions on Gaza, Ukraine, Venezuela, and broader legal-system defense. Strategically, the appointment signals a push for more active institutional reform and coalition-building among governments, business, and civil society to preserve and update multilateral governance frameworks.
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163.
Chatham House argues that Saif al-Islam Gaddafi’s killing ends the last credible political center of gravity for Libya’s pro-Gaddafi camp and signals deeper power consolidation, not national reset. The analysis says his practical influence had faded since 2021, but his symbolic legitimacy and potential electoral comeback still threatened both the Tripoli-based GNU and Haftar-aligned actors. It also finds that Saif was the only figure able to unify fragmented “Green” constituencies, so his death weakens their collective leverage and eases Haftar family efforts to tighten command structures. For policy, the near-term risk is limited retaliatory violence, while the bigger strategic implication is a more entrenched elite order that complicates reconciliation, credible elections, and inclusive governance.
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164.
The panel argues that while central bank independence (CBI) is increasingly challenged by high public debt and political populism, it remains essential for anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining price stability. Experts highlight that 'fiscal dominance' in high-debt environments increases political pressure to lower interest rates, particularly in the US, risking a return to 1970s-style inflation volatility. To maintain legitimacy, central banks must improve transparency and adapt to a new era of frequent supply shocks—such as AI and geopolitical shifts—which may drive higher neutral interest rates globally. Consequently, failure to safeguard CBI could lead to financial repression and a fragmentation of the global monetary regime.
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165.
The panel argues that digital public infrastructure (DPI) is now core state infrastructure, and the key policy question is governance: whether identity, payments, and data-sharing rails are built in the public interest rather than left to fragmented or purely private control. Speakers cite international evidence that open and interoperable approaches can scale quickly and cheaply, including India’s Aadhaar/UPI, Brazil’s Pix, Estonia/X-Road adoption elsewhere, and reported cost and inclusion gains from open-source deployments in countries like the Philippines and Rwanda. They contend the UK’s main constraints are not just funding but weak political leadership, low-trust rollout choices (especially around digital ID framing), rigid Treasury/procurement models, and limited iterative delivery capacity. The strategic implication is to pursue small, high-value pilots that build trust, then scale through clear political ownership, procurement reform, open standards, and multi-stakeholder governance to balance sovereignty, resilience, and innovation.
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166.
The event argues that Libya’s central challenge is political fragmentation: despite a sustained ‘no war, no peace’ environment, rival western and eastern administrations, weak institutions, and economic deterioration continue to block reunification. The reasoning is that national reconciliation and electoral progress are interdependent, with the Presidency Council and UN mediation both needing to bridge factional divides while restoring social cohesion and state legitimacy. It highlights practical constraints—rising inflation, declining purchasing power, contested authority, and transnational pressures such as organized migration crime—that make delay costly even before a new government is formed. Policy-wise, the implication is to prioritize coordinated support for institution-building, credible election preparation, and economic governance reforms while aligning international engagement with Libyan-led reconciliation efforts.
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167.
Chatham House argues that Assad’s abrupt fall in December 2024 revealed Syria’s state fragility, the limited capacity of Iran and Russia to sustain him, and the strategic failure of past Western policy. It reasons that Syria’s transition will be shaped by neighboring states—especially Turkey, Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon—which see both security risks and geopolitical openings as a new government seeks reconstruction support. The analysis highlights Lebanon’s governance stress from Hezbollah’s weakening after conflict with Israel, and Jordan’s added vulnerability as U.S. policy under President Donald Trump may intensify West Bank dynamics. Policy strategy should therefore prioritize a genuinely Syrian-led political transition, disciplined regional burden-sharing, and early safeguards against spillover instability in Lebanon and Jordan while avoiding prior external policy mistakes.
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168.Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro? (Chatham House)
The panel argues that the U.S. seizure of Maduro marks a broader shift to explicit hemispheric power politics, where Washington is willing to use force based on narrowly defined national interests rather than traditional multilateral norms. Speakers contend that while the operation was tactically successful, it does not resolve Venezuela’s underlying governance, corruption, and institutional collapse, making durable stabilization and democratic transition highly uncertain. They also stress that the oil rationale is weak: Venezuela’s heavy crude, degraded infrastructure, legal uncertainty, and soft global demand make rapid production recovery costly and commercially unattractive, while disruption to China is likely limited. Strategically, the event signals a more fragmented Latin America, pressures partners into pragmatic bilateral bargaining with the U.S., and suggests policymakers should prioritize scenario planning for follow-on interventions, institutional reconstruction pathways, and tighter coordination among non-U.S. actors to preserve regional sovereignty and stability.
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169.
The panel’s core judgment is that MENA is showing “stabilization in name only”: open wars are partly contained, but underlying drivers of conflict are intensifying. Speakers pointed to converging internal and external pressure on Iran, a Gaza ceasefire that is effectively fragile and incomplete, renewed Saudi-UAE competition (including in Yemen), and Syria’s unsettled political order with Turkey-Israel rivalry layered on top. They also argued that a fragmented global system is producing multi-alignment rather than clear blocs, with licit and illicit financial networks blurring traditional binaries and complicating sanctions and governance. The strategic implication is that regional and Western policymakers should move beyond ad hoc conflict management toward coordinated, multi-actor political processes, while preparing for cross-border spillovers (security, migration, and economic disruption) if current flashpoints reignite.
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170.
The podcast argues that deep-sea mining is becoming a major geopolitical issue as governments race to secure critical minerals for energy transition and strategic industries. Drawing on expert analysis from Carnegie and CSIS, it frames seabed resource competition as driven by supply-chain security, industrial policy, and power politics at sea rather than climate needs alone. The discussion suggests that weak or contested international governance could sharpen interstate rivalry while environmental uncertainty increases political risk. The policy implication is to pair any resource-access strategy with stronger multilateral rules, precautionary environmental standards, and broader diversification of critical-mineral sources.
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171.Defending NATO’s eastern flank: How Romania is responding to Russian aggression and European rearmament (Chatham House)
The event argues that Romania has become a pivotal frontline state in defending NATO’s eastern flank as Russia’s war against Ukraine reshapes European security. It points to Romania’s exposure to nearby Russian drone incidents, intensified information warfare, and Black Sea military operations, alongside NATO’s decision to host its largest base on Romanian territory, as evidence of its strategic centrality. Romania’s foreign minister frames continued support for Ukraine, defense modernization, and sustained military investment as core to deterrence and alliance resilience. The policy implication is that European rearmament must accelerate and remain coordinated, especially if US engagement in Europe becomes less reliable, to credibly deter further Russian coercion.
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172.
The article argues that NATO is entering a structural shift: many Europeans now define “doing more” as long-term strategic autonomy, while the US still expects greater European spending within US-led command, planning, and procurement frameworks. It supports this with evidence of collapsing European trust in the US, strong public backing for deeper EU military integration, and concrete moves such as oversubscribed EU defense funding instruments and tighter regional cooperation. Although Europe still faces near-term capability and coordination gaps, the author says current rearmament and political momentum are unlikely to reverse even if US politics change. The policy implication is that Washington and NATO need explicit planning for a more independent Europe now, or face growing alliance friction over command, capabilities, and defense-industrial choices.
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173.
The Chatham House event argues that late-2025 Saudi-UAE friction over Yemen reflects a deeper strategic split, not just a tactical disagreement in one conflict. The core evidence is their opposing local alignments: the UAE’s backing of the Southern Transitional Council and southern autonomy versus Saudi support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government and territorial unity. Saudi efforts to freeze front lines and push a political settlement, alongside the UAE’s announced full withdrawal, exposed incompatible views of Yemen’s future security and governance architecture. Strategically, this suggests Gulf coordination will be less automatic, and policymakers should treat Yemen as a test case for wider Riyadh-Abu Dhabi divergence in regional influence, security priorities, and economic statecraft.
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174.China’s Struggle for Influence in Central Asia. How is Beijing aiming to reshape the region? (Chatham House)
Chatham House argues that China’s expansion in Central Asia is not a linear success story but a contested process shaped by local resistance and regional power politics. The event framing points to grassroots protests, elite pushback, and Beijing’s need to adjust its economic and security approach, while Central Asian states actively hedge between China, Russia, the United States, the EU, and Turkey. It also highlights potential friction around China’s growing security role and asks whether renewed U.S. attention can translate into durable influence. For policymakers, the core implication is that strategy in Central Asia must account for local agency and competitive balancing dynamics, rather than assuming Beijing can unilaterally remake the region.
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175.
Chatham House argues that Haiti is entering a decisive security and governance transition, and that restoring order now requires a credible, integrated strategy rather than another narrow short-term intervention. The event framing points to entrenched gang violence, political uncertainty around the Transitional Presidential Council’s post-7 February transition, and worsening economic distress as mutually reinforcing drivers of instability. Its reasoning emphasizes lessons from past multilateral missions and the need to align Haitian institutions, regional actors, and international partners around a practical roadmap that links security operations with economic recovery and job creation. Strategically, the implication is that external support should shift toward sustained, Haitian-led institution building with clearer coordination, accountability, and economic stabilization goals if durable security is to be achieved.
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176.
The discussion argues that 2026 conflict risk will be shaped less by traditional multilateral conflict management and more by sphere-of-influence politics and transactional dealmaking by major powers. Ero’s reasoning is that with over 60 active conflicts, institutions like the UN and established mediators are increasingly sidelined, while regional and great-power actors (e.g., the US in Latin America, Gulf states in Sudan, Turkey in Syria, China in Myanmar) now carry more leverage over war and peace outcomes. She stresses that many current “peace” efforts are short-term truces rather than durable settlements, with places like Gaza, Sudan, and Somalia exposed to continued violence due to proxy competition, weak governance arrangements, and miscalculation risks among powerful states. For policy strategy, the implication is to prioritize pragmatic coalition-building with the actors who actually hold leverage, convert ceasefires into longer political processes, and adapt conflict-prevention tools to a more fragmented, law-weaker international order.
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177.
Chatham House argues that many Middle Eastern governments now oppose a US strike on Iran because their threat perception has shifted from fear of Iranian regional dominance to concern about Israeli escalation and the consequences of an Iranian state collapse. It points to the weakening of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” after 7 October 2023, Israeli military pressure across the region, Assad’s fall, and heightened Gulf alarm after Israel’s September 2025 strike on Doha as evidence of this shift. The analysis says regime-change war and broad containment are viewed by Arab states as dangerous and historically ineffective, with high risks of fragmentation, migration, militancy, and regional spillover. The policy implication is to favor de-escalation and targeted, policy-based pressure on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and proxy activities through diplomacy rather than large-scale military action.
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178.
Chatham House argues that climate action and the energy transition now face a more volatile geopolitical and economic context, where rivalry, securitization, and domestic political pressures could derail progress. The conference framing highlights interacting risks: worsening climate impacts, fragile supply chains, resource competition (especially for critical minerals), and linked stresses in water, biodiversity, and land use that can create new dependencies and inequalities. Its reasoning is that these pressures are converging across global governance, markets, and local societies, making “business as usual” strategies inadequate. The strategic implication is that governments, firms, and civil society need coordinated, multi-stakeholder approaches that integrate energy security, affordability, and justice with broader resource-resilience planning.
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179.
Maddox argues that the international system has shifted into destabilizing US-China superpower rivalry, with both powers undermining global peace and prosperity in different ways. She contends that Washington’s transactional unilateralism under Trump and Beijing’s coercive techno-industrial expansion have together weakened alliances, eroded legal norms, and increased risks of conflict, including over Taiwan and transatlantic security. The lecture supports this with examples including tariff coercion, pressure over critical minerals, intensified military signaling, and challenges to institutions such as NATO, the UN system, and global trade mechanisms. Strategically, she calls on non-superpower states to strengthen and build institutions, resolve regional conflicts through principled coalitions, and actively uphold international law to preserve a rules-based order without relying on US leadership.
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180.
The event frames COP30 as a pivotal moment to evaluate whether international climate cooperation can sustain momentum amid shifting geopolitical leadership. Kerry’s core argument is that progress still depends on major economies aligning policy, finance, and implementation, informed by lessons from Rio, Paris, and more recent COP breakthroughs in Glasgow and Dubai. The reasoning emphasizes that even if federal commitment fluctuates, US private-sector investment and subnational actors can continue to drive meaningful emissions and transition outcomes. Strategically, this suggests governments and institutions should broaden climate diplomacy beyond national executives by building coalitions that include cities, states, and business to preserve continuity and accelerate delivery.
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181.
Chatham House frames Hungary’s 12 April 2026 election as a pivotal contest for both Hungary and the EU, with the potential to alter Europe’s political trajectory. The core argument is that Viktor Orbán’s long rule—marked by hardline migration policy, weakened judicial independence, and closer ties with Russia—has created sustained conflict with Brussels and concerns about democratic backsliding. The event highlights Péter Magyar and the TISZA movement as Orbán’s strongest challenger in years, citing polling that suggests a plausible upset and a pro-EU, centrist alternative. Strategically, the outcome could either reinforce Hungary’s current sovereigntist path or trigger a policy reset toward EU alignment, with spillover effects on the momentum of right-leaning populist forces across Europe.
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182.As the UK lurches from crisis to crisis, is it becoming ungovernable? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
The podcast argues that the UK’s repeated political crises and rapid prime-ministerial turnover may reflect deeper structural governance weaknesses rather than isolated leadership problems. It points to six prime ministers in roughly a decade, ongoing pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, and Labour’s exposure in upcoming local elections as signs of systemic instability. The discussion also situates the UK alongside European peers facing similar governing strains, suggesting broader institutional and political fragmentation. For policymakers and strategists, the implication is to prioritize reforms that improve governing durability, electoral legitimacy, and crisis-management capacity rather than relying on short-term leadership fixes alone.
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183.
Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Programme positions itself as an interdisciplinary policy platform providing objective analysis on major issues across South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific. Its core approach combines independent research, regional partnerships, and direct engagement with decision-makers to shape practical and constructive policy outcomes. The programme supports its analysis through expert roundtables, webinars, conferences, and publications, while also advising private-sector and multilateral stakeholders. Strategically, this model implies that effective policy toward Asia-Pacific dynamics requires cross-sector evidence, sustained regional collaboration, and proactive dialogue between analysts and policymakers.
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184.
Chatham House argues that global trade should be treated as a policy lever for water security, not just a source of pressure on freshwater systems. The event rationale points to recent drought-linked disruptions, including higher prices for grains, olive oil, and chocolate and constraints on major shipping routes such as the Panama Canal and Rhine River, as evidence that water risk is already material to economies. It reasons that climate warming and volatility will intensify these risks across water-intensive supply chains unless water is valued as a shared transboundary resource. Strategically, it implies governments, firms, and investors should coordinate importer-exporter standards for fair water footprints, embed water risk in investment decisions, and pursue governance reforms that expand clean-water access and ecosystem restoration.
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185.
Chatham House presents its Russia and Eurasia Programme as a policy-impact platform focused on delivering rigorous analysis of Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states whose trajectories have sharply diverged. The core argument is that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped regional security and politics, making sovereignty and independence the essential analytical starting point for all countries in scope. Its reasoning is grounded in sustained research output, expert convenings, media engagement, and partnerships with academic and policy institutions to test and disseminate findings on war dynamics, domestic political change, and regional geopolitics. For policymakers and strategists, the implication is a need for differentiated country-specific approaches, long-term support for Ukrainian resilience and reconstruction, and continuous reassessment of Russia’s internal and external trajectory in a volatile regional environment.
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186.Haiti’s vicious circle: Funding is needed to end the violence. But the violence means the funding doesn’t come (Chatham House)
Haiti is trapped in a vicious circle where escalating gang violence and political infighting within the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) deter the international funding and legitimacy required to restore order. With 90% of Port-au-Prince under criminal control and 8,100 deaths in 2025, the lack of a stable government counterpart severely undermines the UN’s Gang Suppression Force and the feasibility of democratic elections. Consequently, systemic security sector reform and economic recovery remain unachievable without a significant reversal in declining global development assistance.
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187.A new multilateralism. How are the UN and other global organizations adapting to a new world? (Chatham House)
The event’s core argument is that multilateral institutions, especially the UN system, must be structurally and politically updated to stay effective in a world shaped by great-power rivalry, fragmented governance, and fast technological and economic change. Its reasoning is that the current system is losing legitimacy and delivery capacity on cross-border problems such as climate and trade, while competing global orders are creating parallel venues for influence. The discussion points to practical adaptation priorities: reforming institutional representation, rebalancing decision-making power, and ensuring trade, technology, and development rules are perceived as fair across advanced and developing economies. For policymakers, the strategic implication is to treat multilateral reform as a competitiveness and stability agenda, investing in more inclusive, flexible institutions that can still coordinate collective action under geopolitical strain.
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188.
Chatham House argues that mega AI summits are useful for networking and agenda-setting but are unlikely to deliver meaningful international governance agreements. The reasoning is that forums like the New Delhi AI Impact Summit are too crowded and politically fragmented, with competing national and commercial priorities, while US–China rivalry and weakening multilateral norms make binding global deals improbable. It cites recent summit outcomes as mostly non-binding and principles-based, and points to more promising progress in smaller scientist-led, technical-standards, and regional venues that can build trust and produce operational proposals. The strategic implication is to prioritize a “splinter to scale” approach: develop tested, inclusive governance tools in focused forums, then scale them through larger diplomatic platforms with middle-power backing.
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189.
Chatham House argues that accountability mechanisms must rapidly adapt because cyber operations are now being used to facilitate core international crimes, not just conventional cybercrime. The event highlights the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s new policy on cyber-enabled crimes under the Rome Statute as a key signal that cyber-enabled atrocities should be investigated and prosecuted on equal footing with offline conduct. Its reasoning centers on clarifying which cyber acts meet international criminal law thresholds, building workable legal frameworks, and addressing practical barriers to attribution, evidence collection, and prosecution. Strategically, states and international institutions should align domestic and international legal tools, strengthen investigative cooperation, and prioritize capacity for cyber-forensics and cross-border accountability.
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190.Yemen’s conflict: The Islah Party's evolving role, and vision for a post-war society (Chatham House)
Chatham House frames Yemen’s Islah Party as a durable, central political actor whose influence has persisted through the civil war and will likely matter in any post-war settlement. The event description highlights Islah’s institutional weight—one of Yemen’s largest parties, the second-largest parliamentary bloc, and a participant in the internationally recognized government—as evidence that it remains embedded in formal politics despite conflict fragmentation. It argues that understanding Islah’s ties with regional and international actors is essential to assessing its strategy, bargaining power, and approach to state restructuring. For policymakers, the implication is that viable peace and governance planning should treat Islah as a necessary stakeholder, while testing whether its stated vision can support an inclusive and sustainable political order.
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191.
Chatham House’s US and North America Programme argues that understanding policy shifts in Washington and Ottawa is essential to navigating wider global realignment. Its reasoning is based on a mix of policy-focused research, expert analysis, and cross-sector convenings that track how North American decisions shape geopolitical, security, and economic outcomes. The programme emphasizes durable structural trends rather than only short-term political cycles, including US-China strategy, trade-policy renegotiation, and evolving alliance structures. For policymakers and strategists in the UK, Europe, and other middle powers, the implication is to prepare for sustained changes in US external behavior through diversified partnerships, adaptive economic strategy, and long-horizon security planning beyond 2028.
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192.
The article argues that the Munich Security Conference exposed a deepening political-strategic split inside the West, even as leaders tried to project unity on core security issues. It cites Marco Rubio’s speech as emblematic: he reassured Europe that it still matters to Washington, but paired that with hard limits on U.S. support and warnings that America will act unilaterally when allies resist. The piece also points to contrasting interventions by Wang Yi, Keir Starmer, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to show how states are recalibrating between U.S.-China rivalry and uncertain transatlantic cohesion. Strategically, it implies European governments should prepare for more conditional U.S. backing, invest in autonomous defense and diplomatic capacity, and pursue flexible coalitions to manage both Russia-related threats and wider great-power competition.
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193.
Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre argues that environmental challenges are systemic drivers of both global geopolitics and local societal risk, requiring integrated policy responses. Its reasoning is based on independent, multidisciplinary research that links climate change and resource depletion to security, economic, and community resilience outcomes, while convening cross-sector expertise to test policy-relevant ideas. The centre prioritizes three action areas: climate and energy transition, sustainable food/land/resource systems, and financing accelerated sustainability transitions. Through its Sustainability Accelerator, it also promotes experimental, innovation-oriented policymaking to move beyond incremental change. For policymakers and strategists, the implication is to adopt cross-sector, evidence-based, and finance-backed transition strategies that pair mitigation with adaptation and resilience-building.
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194.
Chatham House argues that technology governance has expanded from a narrow cyber focus into a broad policy domain because the internet now underpins government, private-sector, and civil-society activity. It notes that while debate is often framed as national security versus personal privacy, a more significant challenge is the market dominance of US technology firms combined with weak and inconsistent regulation. The analysis implies that existing governance approaches are poorly matched to transnational platform power and produce legal uncertainty across jurisdictions. Strategically, policymakers should pursue more coordinated cross-border rules and stronger accountability and competition frameworks for dominant tech companies.
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195.
Chatham House argues that Russia’s invasion is not only devastating Ukraine physically but also accelerating a deeper political transition away from entrenched old-rule networks and vested interests. Its reasoning is that Ukraine was already under internal pressure for reform, and wartime mobilization has intensified public demand for new rules and empowered a newer generation of policymakers. The analysis also stresses that sustained external backing for Ukraine’s defense is structurally shaping the country’s postwar trajectory, making a return to prewar political equilibrium unlikely. Policy-wise, partners should pair military support with long-term institution-building and governance reform assistance to lock in a more resilient Ukrainian state.
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196.
The event argues that defending Ukraine’s cultural, linguistic, and religious sovereignty is essential to any durable peace, because identity policy is directly tied to state security. It cites post-2014 reforms such as de-communization laws, language requirements in public life, and the 2019 independence of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine as evidence of Kyiv’s effort to reduce Russian imperial influence while maintaining private minority-language use. The discussion frames Russia’s full-scale war and negotiation demands (including restoring Russian influence networks and elevating Russian language status) as tools to weaken Ukrainian statehood from within. Strategically, it implies that peace terms must protect Ukraine’s control over domestic identity policy, while balancing EU-aligned minority-rights standards and prioritizing cultural heritage protection in recovery planning.
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197.
Chatham House argues that a stronger Japan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would be broadly beneficial for Asia by helping balance both Chinese dominance and excessive dependence on the United States. The piece reasons that many Asian governments value Japan’s predictable diplomacy, investment record, and growing security cooperation, especially as China’s military pressure rises and multilateral institutions weaken. It also notes major constraints: Takaichi’s tax-cut and spending agenda is fiscally difficult, constitutional military reform faces high political hurdles, and Tokyo is under simultaneous pressure from Beijing and Washington. Strategically, the article implies Japan should build domestic economic resilience while deepening ties with India, Southeast Asia, and other US allies (such as the UK and Australia) and stabilizing relations with China to avoid regional escalation.
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198.
Chatham House argues that African mining has become a core geopolitical and economic arena, and that African governments must take more strategic roles to secure development gains from the critical minerals race. The Institute cites its engagement at Mining Indaba 2026, including ministerial discussions and a UNDP-facilitated roundtable, as evidence that debates are shifting from resource nationalism toward active state participation in mining and processing value chains. Its experts emphasize that US and other responses to China’s supply-chain dominance are restructuring global markets, raising the stakes for countries without equity or policy leverage. Strategically, the piece implies African policymakers should align permitting, industrialization, and infrastructure planning with stronger state-industry coordination to capture long-term value and avoid marginalization.
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199.
Chatham House argues that Africa’s strong headline growth outlook in 2026 (IMF: 4.3% average GDP growth) obscures weaker per-capita gains and major financing constraints. The discussion points to persistent debt burdens and declining official development assistance as core risks that could prevent projected growth from translating into broad development progress. It emphasizes untapped policy options for economic transformation and a larger role for regional financial institutions in supporting country-led development priorities. The policy implication is to pair growth strategies with debt sustainability measures, reduced aid dependence, and stronger regional financing architecture to deliver more inclusive and durable outcomes.
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200.
Chatham House argues that global governance in 2026 can no longer treat economic/financial governance and digital-technology governance as separate domains. The event supports this by centering practical cross-cutting questions on digital currencies, AI’s economic impact, reform bottlenecks, and how global shocks affect both systems at once. Its core reasoning is that technological competition and retreat from multilateralism have created shared risks and interdependent policy choices across these fields. The policy implication is that governments should build integrated governance strategies, strengthen emerging economies’ influence in rule-shaping, and use digital tools to modernize economic and financial governance capacity.
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201.
Chatham House argues that the 2026 security environment is being transformed by overlapping geopolitical, military, and technological shocks that are testing established alliances and institutions. Its reasoning highlights NATO burden-sharing strains around 5% defence spending targets, strategic recalibration under a renewed Trump administration, China’s military modernization alongside Indo-Pacific flashpoints, and persistent interstate/proxy conflicts in the Middle East. It also emphasizes that climate-conflict dynamics, critical materials competition, and increasingly sophisticated cyber and espionage activity are blurring traditional warfighting domains. The policy implication is that governments and industry should prioritize cross-domain strategy, stronger public-private defence partnerships, and more efficient use of rising defence budgets to build resilience and credible deterrence.
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202.
The article argues that the EU’s 2026 designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization marks a decisive break from three decades of engagement-based Iran policy. It says Europe’s old balance of pressure and dialogue collapsed after cumulative shocks: Iran’s military support to Russia after 2022, repression following Mahsa Amini’s death, failure to restore the nuclear deal in 2023, and UN snapback sanctions in 2025. The immediate trigger was the scale of the early-2026 crackdown, which convinced European governments there were no credible Iranian interlocutors left and that non-designation carried unacceptable reputational costs. Strategically, the move raises legal and compliance risks for EU and non-EU firms tied to Iran while likely reducing the EU’s diplomatic leverage, leaving Europe more sidelined in US-Iran decision-making.
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203.
Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme argues that better policy on the region requires grounded, field-based analysis of often overlooked drivers of conflict, governance stress, and state–society change. It supports this approach through a research model combining field data collection, bilingual policy publications, convening with decision-makers across sectors, and direct briefings in MENA, the UK, and the US. The programme’s focus on geopolitical competition, transnational conflict dynamics, political-economic networks, and accountability is presented as the analytical basis for more realistic policy choices. For strategy, the implication is that governments and institutions should rely on locally informed, cross-regional, and cross-sector evidence to design interventions and partnerships that are politically feasible and context-specific.
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204.The reopening of the Rafah crossing provides some hope for Palestinians, but can it be sustained? (Chatham House)
Chatham House argues that reopening Rafah is a meaningful but fragile breakthrough: it restores a limited non-Israeli outlet for Gazans, yet remains vulnerable to political, security, and operational reversal. Evidence cited includes very low initial crossing numbers, Israeli pre-clearance and vetting rules, reported harassment, and historical patterns in which security incidents, monitoring bottlenecks, and factional competition repeatedly led to closure or violence. The paper also notes Israeli domestic electoral pressures, far-right opposition, and concerns over smuggling, all of which could undermine implementation of the wider October 2025 ceasefire framework and Gaza reconstruction plans. Strategically, the implication is that external actors should prioritize robust monitoring, transparent crossing governance, and sustained diplomatic pressure to prevent backsliding, while recognizing that continued closure would deepen despair and likely fuel renewed instability.
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205.
The event frames Mike Pence’s central argument as a call for principled U.S. global leadership, based on his experience in the administration and focused on America’s evolving international role. Its reasoning centers on three linked policy questions: how Washington sustains alliances, manages emerging security threats, and reconciles domestic political priorities with external commitments. Chatham House positions the discussion as an on-the-record public forum to surface diverse perspectives on these strategic trade-offs. For policymakers, the implication is that U.S. strategy will hinge on whether leaders can maintain credible alliance commitments while adapting to new security pressures without losing domestic support.
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206.
Chatham House argues that Trump’s energy-dominance agenda is delivering visible short-term gains in US oil and LNG output, but global market dynamics make sustained political control over energy trajectories difficult. The article points to record US oil production, LNG export growth above 20%, coal-plant retention measures, and ambitious nuclear expansion goals, while also noting renewables still took most new US power capacity in 2025 and globally covered all demand growth as they surpassed coal in generation. It emphasizes that energy investment cycles run 5–10 years, so current outcomes reflect earlier decisions and require long policy continuity to lock in structural change. For strategy, the US may gain near-term geopolitical leverage over prices and supply chains, but allies’ mixed responses, persistent renewable cost competitiveness, and deeper US exposure to hydrocarbon regions limit long-term dominance and complicate policy tradeoffs.
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207.
Chatham House argues that Bangladesh’s 12 February 2026 election is a pivotal test of democratic transition after the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina, but it is unfolding in a volatile, reconfigured political arena. The report’s reasoning centers on the ban of the Awami League, BNP’s leadership shift under Tarique Rahman, and the unexpected 11-party Jamaat–NCP alliance, alongside polling that shows a tight BNP–Jamaat contest and a decisive youth electorate. It also highlights mounting instability, including killings of activists, intra-opposition tensions, and a major information-war environment marked by bots, deepfakes, decontextualized religious clips, and cross-border disinformation allegations. The policy implication is that domestic and international actors should prioritize election security, violence prevention, and information-integrity measures while supporting inclusive political competition so institutional legitimacy can survive the transition.
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208.
Chatham House argues that the African Union’s handling of Sudan has become a major leadership failure and that the February 2026 AU summit is a narrow chance to reset strategy before state fragmentation becomes irreversible. It cites the scale of the crisis (about two-thirds of 53 million people needing aid, 13.6 million displaced, and nearly half facing severe food insecurity) and shows how AU inconsistency and weak enforcement have reduced leverage over both the SAF and RSF. The paper also highlights a fragmented mediation landscape, with the US-led Quad, AU-led Quintet, and AU internal mechanisms pulling in different directions while key regional actors are widely perceived as biased. For policy, it recommends the AU reassert primacy, enforce norm-consistent neutrality, and link ceasefire/humanitarian negotiations to a unified AU-led political process to increase pressure on the warring parties and limit wider regional spillover.
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209.
Chatham House’s Europe Programme argues that Europe needs practical, implementation-focused policy work to navigate a period of geopolitical and political disruption. Its reasoning is that combining EU, NATO, and country-level expertise can turn broad strategic goals into actionable recommendations, especially across its 2024–2027 priorities: the EU’s future, European security, and Europe’s global role. The programme also treats election outcomes and growing political fragmentation as cross-cutting forces that shape progress in all three areas. For policymakers, the implication is to pursue integrated strategies that link institutional reform, security planning, and external action while stress-testing decisions against domestic political volatility across Europe.
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210.
The article argues that Kenya is moving from a primarily regional leadership role toward a broader, more assertive global foreign policy posture in response to a shifting world order. Its reasoning centers on Kenya’s 2024 strategy, which combines regional integration goals with diversified external partnerships, including longstanding Western security and economic ties, a strategic partnership with China, and expanding links with the UAE. Kenya’s engagement in multilateral security efforts, including the multinational mission in Haiti, is presented as evidence of its willingness to project influence beyond East Africa despite domestic protest pressures and regional conflict risks. Strategically, this suggests Kenya is pursuing pragmatic multi-alignment to maximize diplomatic leverage, trade and financing opportunities, while managing the risks of geopolitical balancing and policy overextension.
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211.
Chatham House’s UK in the World Programme argues that the UK must rethink foreign policy for a more multipolar and less predictable environment, as its traditional relationships with the US and Europe evolve and new actors gain influence. It reasons that the UK can still act effectively as an influential mid-sized power and global broker, but only if external strategy is linked to domestic renewal on growth, regional inequality, and public service capacity. The programme supports this through expert working groups, policy analysis on trade-offs, and public engagement focused on economic security, development, strategic partnerships, and science and technology. The strategic implication is that UK policymakers should pursue a more integrated domestic-foreign policy approach, prioritizing resilient partnerships, economic security, and innovation-led statecraft.
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212.
Chatham House frames Trump’s Belarus policy as a sharp departure from the West’s prior strategy of non-recognition and sanctions against Lukashenka. The immediate evidence is Washington’s lifting of sanctions on Belavia after the September release of Belarusian political prisoners, alongside public statements from Trump and Lukashenka about negotiating a larger deal. The article’s core reasoning is that this transactional approach may generate short-term leverage (for example, prisoner releases) but could undercut coordinated Western pressure on the regime. Strategically, it implies a tradeoff between tactical engagement and alliance cohesion, with potential spillover for Russia-containment policy and Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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213.
Chatham House argues that the post-1945 international order is under growing strain from renewed interstate aggression, coercive diplomacy, and great-power competition over future global rules. It reasons that credibility gaps—such as perceived Western double standards on Ukraine and Gaza—and a more transactional US foreign policy are accelerating institutional fragmentation. The centre’s approach is to identify which legacy norms can be preserved, where new rules are needed, and how to give greater weight to smaller states, aspiring middle powers, and Global South voices across security, law, digital, and health domains. For policymakers, the implication is that effective strategy now requires pragmatic institutional reform and broader coalition-building, rather than reliance on legacy governance frameworks alone.
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214.
The article argues that a tougher Trump approach to Cuba may raise pressure on Havana, but is unlikely to produce a quick Venezuela-style political breakthrough. It points to Cuba’s deepening economic and energy crisis after losing subsidized Venezuelan oil, while emphasizing the regime’s durable control through the Communist Party, security institutions, and weak, fragmented domestic opposition. It also notes that U.S. law (especially the 1992 and 1996 embargo statutes) sharply limits what any administration can offer unless major democratic conditions are met, constraining deal-making. Strategically, this suggests Washington risks worsening humanitarian conditions and migration flows without guaranteed regime change, so policy should combine pressure with realistic transition benchmarks and crisis contingency planning.
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215.
The article argues that Mario Draghi is not calling for an immediate EU superstate, but for "pragmatic federalism" that gives Europe real decision-making authority in strategic domains. It reasons that loose intergovernmental coordination, especially in defense and foreign policy, leaves the EU economically strong but politically weak, while examples like the euro and the ECB show that functional federal-style authority can work without full constitutional federalism. Draghi therefore favors flexible integration among willing states, potentially outside formal EU structures at first, with late entry open to others, similar to Schengen’s path. Strategically, this implies prioritizing coalition-based institutional deepening in defense, industrial policy, taxation, and diplomacy to increase European power without waiting for politically unlikely treaty-level overhaul.
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216.
Chatham House argues that middle powers can retain meaningful agency in an AI system dominated by the US and China by pursuing "sovereign AI" strategies tailored to national interests. The paper identifies four practical pathways: specialize in a strategic segment of the AI supply chain, align with one superpower, pool sovereignty through partnerships with peers, or hedge by combining capabilities from multiple providers. Its reasoning is that full technological independence is unrealistic, but selective control over how AI is adopted and governed is still achievable. For policymakers, the priority is to choose and sequence these strategies based on domestic strengths and risk tolerance so AI deployment serves national and public-interest goals despite structural dependence on US and Chinese ecosystems.
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217.
The panel argues that China under Xi is pursuing a long-term effort to reshape international order around sovereignty, regime security, and reduced Western dominance, while avoiding costly ideological bloc politics. Speakers cite evidence including Beijing’s security-first governance model, parallel institution-building (e.g., BRI, AIIB, SCO, BRICS-adjacent platforms), efforts to de-risk supply chains and build economic leverage, and selective mediation diplomacy aimed especially at the Global South. They also emphasize tensions in China’s approach: it promotes an alternative governance narrative but still works inside existing institutions, and its global ambitions are constrained by domestic economic pressures and external pushback. For policymakers, the implication is to treat China’s strategy as structural and adaptive rather than episodic, requiring coordinated responses on economic resilience, technology dependence, and coalition-based diplomacy rather than issue-by-issue reactions.
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218.
Chatham House’s event frames the war in Ukraine as a hard-power contest whose outcome will shape Europe’s wider security order. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi is positioned to argue that battlefield developments should directly inform diplomatic expectations about war termination rather than optimism detached from military realities. The session emphasizes building a common European security strategy, with specific focus on the UK’s role and Ukraine’s contribution to allied defence and deterrence capacity. For policymakers, the implication is to prioritize long-term military readiness, tighter UK-Europe-Ukraine coordination, and strategy grounded in operational conditions on the front.
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219.
Chatham House argues that health literacy is a core lever for health inclusivity and, by extension, national economic resilience in a more competitive and fragmented geopolitical environment. The event frames the case through Economist Impact’s Health Inclusivity Index findings and practical case studies, linking stronger prevention and better individual health decisions to higher productivity, labour participation, and lower social welfare burdens. Its reasoning is that conflict, aid shifts, and economic imbalances are widening disparities, so coordinated action by governments, business, and civil society is needed to scale effective local models while keeping them grounded in lived experience. The strategic implication is that policymakers should treat health literacy as an economic and health-security investment, using cross-sector partnerships, measurable outcomes, and adaptable cross-border implementation models.
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220.Oil, regime change, and what's next in Trump’s MAGA playbook? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
The podcast argues that a prospective Trump-era MAGA foreign-policy approach in the Americas would be driven by hard-power politics in which oil, regime pressure, and transactional security goals are tightly linked. The discussion uses the so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine,’ Marco Rubio’s Cuba agenda, and Haiti as case studies to show how energy interests and political intervention are being framed as mutually reinforcing tools of U.S. influence. It also points to governance and security reform debates in Haiti as evidence that regional instability is being treated less as a humanitarian issue and more as a strategic one. For policymakers, the implication is that governments in the region should prepare for more coercive, interest-first U.S. engagement and adjust diplomatic, energy, and domestic resilience strategies accordingly.
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221.
Chatham House argues that global trade is entering a structurally unstable phase in which economic security, geopolitical rivalry, and nationalism increasingly override traditional free-trade norms. The conference framing points to major drivers: a reoriented US trade posture under the second Trump administration, mounting pressure on the WTO and rules-based system, securitized supply chains, and intensified competition over technology and critical materials. It also highlights uneven regional adaptation, with Asian economies seeking growth opportunities while European governments struggle to balance competitiveness, resilience, and domestic political pressures. The strategic implication is that governments and firms should prioritize risk management, supply-chain resilience, and coalition-based rule-setting, while preparing for deeper fragmentation if multilateral mechanisms continue to weaken.
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222.
Chatham House argues that the late-2025 protest wave in Iran is more structurally consequential than episodic unrest because economic collapse has fused with broader political grievances and demands for systemic change. The event framing highlights sustained nationwide mobilization despite repression, internet blackouts, and security crackdowns, suggesting deeper legitimacy erosion rather than short-term discontent. It also points to protest demographics and persistence as key indicators that the Islamic Republic’s coercive tools may restore control only temporarily. For policymakers, this implies planning for prolonged instability in Iran, calibrating external pressure and messaging carefully, and assessing second-order regional effects involving US and Israeli strategy.
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223.
Chatham House argues that a second Trump presidency signals a shift from US hegemony to a more openly imperial foreign policy built on coercive leverage rather than alliance stewardship. It cites transactional diplomacy, disregard for international norms, threats toward allies such as Denmark over Greenland, and the operation to capture Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro as evidence of greater willingness to use force in support of a hemispheric dominance strategy. The analysis says this approach weakens NATO cohesion and broader European security assumptions while creating a more volatile environment in which states inside and outside Washington’s preferred orbit must recalibrate. It also concludes that Russia and China face a mix of risk and opportunity as US policy becomes more confrontational, producing a brittle order with higher miscalculation risk.
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224.
The event argues that Belarus’s regime is using selective prisoner releases as tactical diplomacy rather than signaling genuine political liberalization, while domestic hopes for democratic change have sharply receded since 2020. As evidence, it highlights the late-2025 release and deportation of 123 political prisoners, including Ales Bialiatski and Maria Kalesnikava, framed as a gesture to the US administration amid ongoing repression. The discussion centers on how current US–Belarus contacts should be interpreted and what kind of Western approach can still preserve pressure for political change. The policy implication is that Western governments should pursue conditional engagement tied to concrete human-rights outcomes, avoid normalizing authoritarian rule, and sustain long-term support for Belarusian democratic forces in exile and at home.
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225.
Chatham House argues that Nouri al-Maliki’s brief comeback bid exposed how Iraq’s political system remains highly vulnerable to external power competition despite official claims of restored sovereignty. The article cites Iran’s rapid backing of Maliki through networks tied to the Coordination Framework and PMF-linked actors, alongside Washington’s late but forceful intervention (including Trump’s public warning) to block an Iran-aligned outcome. It also frames Maliki’s candidacy as a break from Iraq’s post-2003 pattern of selecting weak consensus premiers, showing how quickly elite bargains can shift under foreign pressure. Strategically, the piece implies Iraq’s near-term stability depends on fast government formation, tighter management of militia-state fragmentation, and a balancing approach that reduces exposure to escalating US-Iran confrontation.
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226.
Chatham House frames Trump’s conflict strategy as a deliberate break from traditional diplomacy, centered on his pledge to act as a “peacemaker and unifier” through high-pressure dealmaking. The core logic is transactional: use US leverage to force adversaries into negotiations and lock in outcomes across multiple conflicts, including Ukraine, Gaza, the South Caucasus, and the DRC. The event description highlights mixed and disputed results, arguing that while this approach can create openings, it also unsettles allies and even parts of Trump’s domestic base that see tension with an America First posture. For policymakers, the key implication is that US-led peacemaking may become more coercive and personalized, requiring partners to adapt quickly while planning for uneven sustainability and credibility risks across simultaneous theaters.
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227.
Chatham House argues that US global influence remains substantial but is increasingly perceived as declining, particularly in economic terms, as China, India and Russia gain weight. The analysis points to policy volatility and experimentation across major dossiers, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and relations with the EU, Russia and North Korea. At the same time, persistent transnational challenges such as trade, climate change, nuclear risk and terrorism are presented as areas where US engagement is still indispensable. The strategic implication is that Washington’s credibility will depend less on unilateral dominance and more on consistent, coalition-based leadership in managing shared global risks.
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228.
The article argues that Europe’s sovereignty debate is increasingly split between an integrationist strategy (more EU-level coordination, financing, and industrial policy) and a deregulatory growth strategy (less bureaucracy, stronger national competitiveness). It supports this by contrasting leaders and policy preferences: Macron and Draghi push pooled instruments such as joint procurement and common financing, while De Wever, Merz, and Meloni prioritize regulatory simplification and nationally driven industrial revival. The piece warns that the main danger is not institutional rupture but policy incoherence, where parallel national and EU initiatives in defense and energy create duplication and underpowered outcomes. Strategically, it suggests the most viable path is a calibrated hybrid: selective integration in scale-dependent sectors (defense, tech, energy infrastructure) combined with targeted deregulation to restore growth, with Germany’s choices likely to determine whether that synthesis holds.
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229.
Chatham House argues that Ukraine’s latest high-level corruption scandal is not only a governance crisis but a direct wartime vulnerability because it can erode domestic legitimacy and external financial support. The case centers on NABU’s alleged exposure of a graft scheme at state-owned Energoatom with potential losses of about $100 million, followed by sanctions steps, ministerial resignations, and allegations involving figures close to President Zelenskyy. The reasoning is that with Ukraine needing roughly $60 billion in external financing in 2026–2027, donor confidence depends on credible enforcement, not just exposure of wrongdoing. Strategically, the brief implies Kyiv and partners should prioritize prosecutorial follow-through, judicial independence, tighter anti-illicit-finance controls, and coordinated messaging to limit Kremlin exploitation of corruption narratives.
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230.
Chatham House’s Africa Programme argues that independent, politically focused analysis of individual African states is essential for better international decision-making and conflict prevention. It supports this claim by emphasizing its convening role with senior officials and experts, its non-commercial independence from political-risk consultancies, and its work to improve the quality of information used by policymakers and investors. The programme also links long-term investment success to transparency, accountability, and rule of law, while encouraging non-confrontational reform by governments and businesses. Strategically, the message is that governments and corporations should back nuanced country-level political analysis and governance-focused engagement to manage risk, support stability, and capture future growth opportunities as African states gain global influence.
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231.
Chatham House argues that as the US turns inward and multilateral institutions weaken, the Global South is becoming a central arena of geopolitical and economic competition in which Japan is an increasingly important actor. Evidence came from a January 2026 expert event at Japan House London, where specialists assessed how Global South countries are reacting to great-power rivalry, including China’s expanding role, and compared Japanese, US, and Chinese approaches. The discussion suggests influence will depend less on rhetoric and more on how partner countries in the Global South perceive concrete differences in engagement models. For policy, Japan and like-minded states should design pragmatic, development-focused partnerships aligned with Global South priorities and recognize these countries as active shapers of the emerging global order.
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232.
Chatham House argues that repealing the 2009 EPA endangerment finding is a strategic own goal: it may reduce near-term regulatory pressure, but it undermines US long-term economic and technological power. The paper cites estimates that rollbacks could add 7.9-15.3 billion metric tons of emissions by 2055, while also locking US automakers into legacy internal-combustion technologies as global EV adoption accelerates. It contends that lower regulation does not solve competitiveness because EVs often have lower lifetime operating costs, and global demand is shifting toward cleaner vehicles, with EV sales reaching 20.7 million in 2025. Strategically, the implication is that US policy should treat emissions and efficiency standards as industrial policy, sustaining investment in batteries, electrification, and clean-tech supply chains to avoid ceding market share and influence to China.
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233.
The event argues that worsening humanitarian crises are being driven less by isolated emergencies and more by a structural geopolitical shift from a rules-based order to transactional power politics. Drawing on the IRC’s 2026 Emergency Watchlist, it highlights severe stress signals: rising conflict, extreme food insecurity, and mass displacement alongside declining aid and weakening international cooperation. A key indicator is concentration of risk, with 20 Watchlist countries accounting for 84% of global humanitarian need despite representing only 12% of the world’s population, increasing spillover pressures beyond their borders. The policy implication is that governments and donors should pair near-term protection of vulnerable communities with reforms that build a more resilient, sustainable humanitarian system under conditions of persistent great-power competition.
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234.
Syria’s foreign minister argued that the post-Assad government is pursuing a pragmatic foreign policy centered on international reintegration, regional de-escalation, and reconstruction through investment rather than ideological confrontation. He cited high-level outreach to Washington and London, partial sanctions relief, embassy reactivation, and active diplomacy on files such as chemical weapons, refugee return, and security arrangements with Israel (including reviving the 1974 disengagement framework) as evidence of progress. He also framed internal stabilization efforts, including dialogue with the SDF and investigative mechanisms for sectarian violence, as prerequisites for restoring trust and attracting capital. The strategic implication is that external partners have an opening to shape Syria’s trajectory by pairing economic and diplomatic engagement with clear expectations on inclusivity, accountability, and institutional consolidation to reduce risks of renewed fragmentation and proxy competition.
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235.
The article argues that the Munich Security Conference is underweighting climate and environmental risks, even though they are structural drivers of instability and should be treated as core security priorities. It points to climate’s reduced visibility in the 2026 MSC agenda and report, parallel downgrading in other fora, and country cases (including Haiti, Yemen, and Myanmar) where degraded livelihoods, water stress, and climate shocks worsened violence and undermined ceasefires. The author’s reasoning is that security analysis, conflict resolution, and peacebuilding fail when they ignore land, water, food, and energy pressures that shape grievances and state legitimacy. Policy-wise, it calls for embedding land restoration, water access, and climate-resilient livelihoods into stabilization and reconstruction, and advancing practical regional cooperation (e.g., EU, OSCE, NATO, AU) where global consensus is weak.
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236.
The episode argues that the African Union’s new leadership enters office at a critical moment, with hopes of institutional renewal but mounting pressure from a weakening multilateral system. It points to intensifying regional conflicts, fragile economic recovery, and stressed political settlements across several African states as core tests that could limit AU effectiveness. The discussion also highlights a tougher external context: shifting global priorities and reduced international attention to Africa, which raises the cost of inaction. Strategically, this implies AU policymakers should prioritize conflict prevention, stronger continental coordination, and more self-directed diplomacy to protect African interests in a less supportive global order.
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237.
The article argues that recent military and political moves in Syria have delivered a major strategic setback to Kurdish self-rule, while leaving only limited, conditional gains. Damascus’s January offensive pushed the SDF back, defections accelerated Kurdish losses, and subsequent agreements on 18 and 30 January forced Kurdish integration into state structures while conceding key assets like oil fields, border crossings, and Qamishli airport. Although the later deal preserved some Kurdish representation and localized institutional staffing, the broader trend is toward a centralized Syrian state backed by Washington, Ankara, and Gulf states, with fragile trust over implementation. For policy, this implies prioritizing monitoring and enforcement of Kurdish rights commitments, anticipating renewed center-periphery friction, and accounting for both Kurdish political vulnerability and rising cross-border Kurdish solidarity.
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238.
Chatham House argues that the Trump administration’s critical minerals push is less about outproducing China and more about building a geopolitically selective supply system led by Washington. The article points to the February 4 ministerial, the $12 billion “Project Vault” stockpile plan, and the FORGE platform (with proposed price floors) as evidence of serious US state-backed market shaping tied to alliance politics. It warns that investor confidence depends on long-horizon policy credibility, and that partisan attacks on prior administrations’ mineral programs can signal future policy reversals, raising stranded-asset risk. Strategically, the US should institutionalize these initiatives across agencies and administrations, prioritize trusted partners while expanding real new supply (including copper), and sustain long-term political de-risking in places like the DRC.
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239.The UK critical minerals strategy: Building national resilience through global political and commercial collaboration (Chatham House)
Chatham House’s event framing argues that the UK’s new Critical Minerals Strategy is centered on reducing supply-chain vulnerability while preserving international openness. The core reasoning is that critical minerals are now indispensable to UK manufacturing, clean energy deployment, and industrial competitiveness, but exposure to geopolitical rivalry and demand shocks creates strategic risk. The strategy therefore combines domestic capability-building with deeper political and commercial collaboration with partner countries and industry actors. For policy, this implies a dual-track approach: strengthen national resilience at home while institutionalizing trusted international partnerships to secure long-term access in a contested global minerals market.
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240.
The event’s core argument is that violent extremism in West Africa cannot be contained by national responses because insecurity from the Lake Chad Basin to western Mali is fundamentally cross-border. Speakers point to the erosion of regional mechanisms after coups in the central Sahel, with stalled cooperation on hot pursuit, joint operations, intelligence sharing, and disruption of illicit finance, while Mali’s fuel blockade illustrates hard economic-security interdependence for landlocked states. The discussion suggests that parallel security blocs alone will be insufficient unless trust is rebuilt between Sahel and coastal states through practical bilateral and regional arrangements. Policy priorities therefore include restoring interoperable regional frameworks, creating confidence-building mechanisms among governments, and pairing military coordination with strategies that address underlying political and socio-economic drivers of insecurity.
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241.
Chatham House’s Global Economy and Finance Programme argues that independent, policy-oriented analysis can improve international economic decision-making when it is tightly connected to real-world policymakers and practitioners. Its reasoning rests on a three-part operating model: original research on emerging global finance issues, convening expert dialogues across academia, government, and business, and running private briefings for senior decision-makers. The programme’s topic coverage, from G7/G20 governance and trade to debt, climate economics, and monetary system reform, indicates a systems-level approach to interconnected global risks. Strategically, this implies policymakers should prioritize cross-border coordination, use evidence-led forums to build consensus, and translate technical analysis into actionable policy pathways quickly.
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242.
Chatham House argues that the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack and Israel’s subsequent Gaza campaign exposed a fundamental failure in long-running international policy on the Israel–Palestine conflict. The core finding is that regional normalization and economic engagement with Israel were pursued while the Palestine question was sidelined, making the overall approach unstable. The article reasons that international actors, including major donors and the United States, deprioritized peace-process work, settlement expansion, Palestinian governance and accountability, and societal bridge-building, which deepened structural drivers of conflict. For policy strategy, it implies that durable stability requires re-centering these root issues rather than relying on crisis management or normalization alone.
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243.Despite reset in India–US relations, New Delhi retains commitment to strategic hedging (Chatham House)
Chatham House argues that the February 6 India-US tariff deal marks only a partial reset, while New Delhi continues its long-standing strategy of hedging rather than aligning fully with Washington. Although US tariffs on India reportedly fell from 50% to 18% in exchange for major Indian purchase commitments and a pledge to stop Russian oil imports, implementation remains ambiguous because Indian state refiners still buy Russian crude and enforcement details are unclear. The article also notes political and economic constraints on both sides, including India’s sensitivity over agriculture, uncertainty over alternative oil supply, and persistent risk that the US could reimpose tariffs. Strategically, India is likely to keep diversifying trade, energy, and defense ties across multiple partners, implying a more transactional India-US relationship with limited US leverage over India’s broader foreign-policy autonomy.
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244.Chatham House fellow gives evidence to UK House of Lords on legality of US actions in Venezuela (Chatham House)
Professor Marc Weller argues that US actions in Venezuela reflect a widening use-of-force rationale that risks breaching core international law principles. In evidence to the UK House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee, he evaluated the US legal justifications, questioned whether Monroe Doctrine-style claims can fit modern legal limits, and traced a broader shift in US legal positioning over the past decade. He warned that proliferating state justifications for force in pursuit of national interests weakens the credibility of the rules-based international order. Strategically, the testimony suggests policymakers should tighten legal scrutiny of intervention claims and strengthen multilateral support for non-use-of-force norms, including partnerships with developing countries defending international law.
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245.
The podcast argues that Marco Rubio’s more diplomatic style toward Europe likely masks continuity, not change, in the Trump administration’s tougher strategic line. The key reasoning is the contrast in tone with JD Vance’s earlier confrontational remarks, while the underlying themes remained similar: Europe should carry more burden on security and adapt to a less accommodating US posture. Discussion points on Ukraine, drone and defense innovation, and Chinese industrial competition reinforce that transatlantic pressure is widening from military support to technology and economic resilience. The policy implication is that European governments and firms should plan for sustained US demands by accelerating defense capacity, coordinating long-term Ukraine support, and strengthening competitiveness against China.
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246.
Chatham House argues that Trump’s Gaza peace framework could entrench Palestinian fragmentation rather than resolve the conflict, resulting in a depoliticized enclave and a permanently weakened statehood project. It contends that UNSCR 2803 places decision-making in externally controlled bodies with minimal Palestinian authority, while treating statehood as conditional and deferring meaningful political integration of Gaza and the West Bank until at least December 31, 2027. The analysis further cites the Kushner-led redevelopment approach and reconstruction sequencing in Israeli-controlled areas as likely to create “two Gazas,” alongside accelerating de facto West Bank annexation through Israeli policy measures. The policy implication is that Arab and European governments should not back implementation unconditionally, but instead push for binding safeguards linking Gaza and the West Bank, rights-based UN parameters, and credible consequences for annexation.
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247.
Chatham House argues that Russia’s sustained, precision strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have become a strategic campaign to erode civilian resilience and force Kyiv to redirect scarce wartime resources from defense to emergency repairs. The event framing highlights compounding evidence: prolonged electricity shortages (in some areas down to a few hours per day), winter-time disruption of heating and water, economic losses from repeated infrastructure damage, and heightened humanitarian risk including potential new displacement flows into Europe. It also emphasizes that the pressure is systemic rather than episodic, with damage now threatening continuity of essential urban services and social stability. Policy implications are to pair immediate humanitarian and grid-repair support with longer-term protection measures and faster deployment of decentralized energy systems, while coordinating state, local, and civil-society resilience efforts with sustained partner backing.
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248.
The panel’s core finding is that the UK can afford warfighting only if it makes earlier, harder political choices on defence spending and reform, because current plans are too slow for the threat timeline. Speakers argued that moving from roughly 2.3% to 3.5% of GDP requires major trade-offs (higher taxes, cuts elsewhere, or more borrowing) and that past procurement failures have weakened confidence that spending converts into usable capability. They stressed that modern conflict would hit the UK homeland through cyber, disinformation, and infrastructure disruption as well as missiles and drones, while reduced US support raises the burden on Europe. Strategically, the UK should accelerate readiness, improve procurement accountability and industrial surge capacity, rebuild stockpiles, and run a more honest national debate on resilience, mobilisation, and societal preparedness.
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249.
The Chatham House panel argued that shrinking Western aid budgets are no longer just a development issue but a strategic security risk for the UK and its partners. Speakers cited sharp cuts across major donors, disruption from the 2025 USAID retrenchment, and operational impacts such as HALO Trust potentially shrinking from 12,000 to 7,000 staff, warning this will hit fragile and conflict-affected states hardest. They reasoned that reduced support for conflict prevention, multilateral institutions, and long-term partnerships creates space for rival influence, increases instability and migration pressures, and weakens UK diplomatic leverage. For UK strategy, the discussion pointed to prioritizing conflict-focused aid, preserving credible multilateral engagement while using targeted bilateral strengths, rebuilding a clear long-term narrative linking aid to domestic security, and mobilizing non-traditional and private financing to offset fiscal constraints.