The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Justice for Ukraine: Supporting survivors of war crimes and building international solidarity
English Summary
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to over 200,000 documented atrocities, presenting a significant challenge to delivering justice. The article advocates for Ukraine to adopt a transitional justice framework that combines prosecutions, truth-seeking, reparations, and institutional reform to manage the vast scale of war crimes. This approach aims to ensure meaningful, victim-centered justice without overwhelming the legal system and addresses complex issues such as enforcing verdicts against Russian leaders and engaging international partners. A robust transitional justice policy is seen as vital for building international solidarity and navigating the conflict's aftermath.
中文摘要
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵已導致逾 20 萬起記錄在案的暴行，為司法正義的落實帶來嚴峻挑戰。本文倡議烏克蘭應採納一套轉型正義框架，整合刑事起訴、真相調查、損害賠償及制度改革，以應對規模龐大的戰爭罪行。此一途徑旨在確保落實具實質意義且以受害者為中心的司法正義，同時避免法律體系負荷過重，並處理諸如執行針對俄羅斯領導人的判決以及與國際夥伴協作等複雜議題。健全的轉型正義政策被視為凝聚國際團結及應對衝突後續影響之關鍵。
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