The analysis suggests that Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine is facing increasing internal and external pressures. Key evidence points to a tightening economic crisis, evidenced by widespread blackouts and a noticeable scaling back of traditional military displays. Furthermore, the discussion highlights Putin's increasing isolation and micromanagement, suggesting that the strategic initiative may be slipping out of Moscow's control. Policymakers should monitor these signs of internal strain, as they indicate potential vulnerabilities and a possible shift in Russia's military and geopolitical calculus.
Ukraine
This topic hub groups ThinkTankWeekly entries tagged Ukraine and links readers back to the original publishers.
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The analysis concludes that China will hold the upper hand at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, leveraging its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains. This geopolitical leverage, combined with global instability (such as the Iran conflict), allows Beijing to dictate terms and buy time to consolidate its technological and industrial self-sufficiency. Strategically, the U.S. must avoid granting China a managed equilibrium by maintaining 'maximum pressure' on key sectors like AI and tech, rather than seeking broad agreements that could undermine American leadership.
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The article argues that the ongoing Iran War has triggered a severe global hunger crisis, exacerbated by U.S. aid cuts and policy neglect, pushing millions to the brink of starvation. Key evidence includes the termination of U.S. support in countries like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, coupled with supply chain disruptions and massive cost increases across the region. Policy recommendations are urgent: the U.S. must immediately deploy its $5.4 billion in unspent humanitarian funds, establish a humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and reinstate life-saving aid to critical nations.
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The analysis cautions that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit must not result in short-term strategic concessions for the US, which risks undermining long-term stability. China is rapidly consolidating global power, leveraging US policy shifts and increasing its assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific and in technology. Strategically, the US must prioritize addressing the immediate crisis in Iran, where China holds significant leverage, and must also focus on joint cooperation on AI. Ultimately, the US must resist political impulses and pursue a robust strategy to counter China's growing challenge to global dominance.
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The Chatham House analysis argues that 'maximum pressure' sanctions, especially those aimed at regime change, are inherently unstable and create a dangerous escalatory momentum toward military action. The evidence points to repeated failures—such as the decades-long sanctions on Cuba and the inability to topple the Venezuelan regime—demonstrating that sanctions alone are insufficient to achieve stated political goals. Consequently, the risk of military intervention is not limited to a single administration but is a systemic policy danger for any US government that implements punitive sanctions without a coherent strategy for de-escalation or negotiation. Policymakers must therefore view sanctions as a limited tool, ensuring they are paired with clear off-ramps to prevent unnecessary conflict.
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India's foreign policy is defined by 'multialignment,' a self-interested strategy of maintaining strong, non-ideological ties with multiple global powers rather than adhering to any single bloc. This strategy is evidenced by India's simultaneous deepening of partnerships with the US (e.g., defense cooperation) while maintaining independent, critical relationships with Russia and France. Consequently, India is a major proponent of a multipolar global order, advocating for greater representation in international institutions. For external powers, the implication is that attempts to force alignment will fail; instead, a nuanced approach that works with India to maximize mutual gains is necessary for effective policy engagement.
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India is strategically deepening its security cooperation with the United States and Indo-Pacific partners while rigorously maintaining its principle of strategic autonomy. Rather than joining formal, treaty-based alliances, India utilizes flexible, transactional partnerships to build material capacity and legitimacy, even while signaling concern about regional challenges like China's growing influence. This selective engagement allows New Delhi to maximize its geopolitical flexibility and avoid explicit confrontation, but it simultaneously strains relationships with partners who press for clearer alignment. Policymakers must recognize that India's foreign policy is defined by this careful balancing act, requiring sustained, nuanced diplomacy to manage its diversified ties (e.g., between the West and Russia).
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The CFR briefing concludes that the Trump-Xi summit established a fragile, symbolic détente rather than achieving substantive structural reform. This temporary stability is largely predicated on the mutual acknowledgment of critical vulnerabilities, particularly China's control over rare earth minerals and global supply chains, which previously forced a trade truce. While the talks reduced immediate escalation risk, the underlying structural threats—including technology dependence, market access issues, and geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan—remain unaddressed. Policymakers must therefore focus on mitigating these persistent vulnerabilities rather than relying on the diplomatic breakthroughs suggested by the summit.
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9.2026 International Affairs Fellowship Keynote With Ambassador Richard Verma: Geopolitical Challenges and the Path Forward (CFR)
Ambassador Verma argues that the U.S. foreign policy landscape is defined by intense great-power competition, regional conflicts (like the war in Ukraine), and persistent threats of terrorism. He posits that navigating these complex challenges requires a holistic, multi-sectoral approach that bridges traditional government expertise with private-sector economic insight. His own career, spanning military service, diplomacy, and the private sector, serves as evidence for the necessity of this breadth of experience. The key policy implication is the need for adaptive, resilient strategies that maintain global engagement while effectively managing geopolitical risks and economic security.
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The article argues that President Trump's plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe is strategically beneficial, asserting that the U.S. presence acts as an unnecessary 'glue' that prevents natural European self-sufficiency. Proponents argue that Europe has fundamentally changed, possessing nuclear deterrents and the capacity for regional defense, making American military dominance obsolete. Withdrawal will incentivize European states to rapidly rearm and form natural regional blocs, thereby restoring a balance of power without requiring constant American subsidies. Furthermore, reducing U.S. bases in Europe is presented as a positive development, as it limits American power projection and potential involvement in the Middle East.
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The state visit signaled a desire for 'strategic stability' and economic cooperation, evidenced by China's agreement to purchase major U.S. goods. However, the summit highlighted deep geopolitical divergences, particularly regarding Taiwan and the Middle East (Iran). Beijing appears to be using economic engagement to buy time and forestall tariffs, while the U.S. is leveraging the relationship to manage the Iran conflict. Policymakers must anticipate continued strategic competition, as both nations will use upcoming multilateral forums, such as the G20, to manage their conflicting priorities and maintain influence.
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The paper argues that Nordic-Baltic states are increasing engagement with the Indo-Pacific, driven by shared security concerns heightened by the war in Ukraine. The most significant area of convergence is the shared threat of subsea cable disruptions, which both regions view as a critical hybrid security challenge. While the Nordic-Baltic states are inclined toward a NATO-like defense architecture, the paper notes a structural disconnect with the diverse, often national-level, responses in the Indo-Pacific. Consequently, future collaboration is projected to be domain-specific—focusing on technical issues like critical infrastructure protection—rather than encompassing broad regional military or diplomatic alignment.
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The article argues that Russia's recent public displays, such as the diminished Victory Day parade, reveal deep structural cracks in its power and stability. Key evidence includes the military hardware's absence, slowing economic growth, and internal security tensions exacerbated by infighting and digital crackdowns. For policy, the analysis suggests that while Russia remains a threat, its declining geopolitical influence, coupled with the strengthening and consolidating hard-power capabilities of Europe and NATO, indicates a long-term erosion of Moscow's global standing.
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The summit did not result in major breakthroughs but rather a return to managed stability in U.S.-China relations. Key outcomes include the establishment of a 'Board of Trade' and a 'Board of Investment,' which experts view as structural continuations of previous dialogues rather than radical new commitments. The discussions focused on managing existing trade flows and extending ceasefires, allowing China to maintain its economic status quo without making significant concessions. Strategically, this suggests that the U.S. must adjust its policy away from demanding fundamental systemic changes and instead focus on managing these stable, yet limited, bilateral agreements.
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The report argues that while the EU successfully transitioned away from Russian gas, its new LNG strategy risks replacing one dependency with another, creating new concentration risks. Utilizing a dual-risk framework (price volatility, geopolitical exposure, and supplier concentration), the analysis demonstrates that reliance on a single supplier or contract type is inherently unstable. Therefore, the core policy recommendation is that the EU must adopt a resilient energy portfolio that balances diversified long-term contracts with retained spot-market flexibility. Ultimately, long-term security requires mitigating geopolitical risks and actively managing critical chokepoint vulnerabilities, rather than simply substituting one major supplier for another.
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U.S. allies are increasing diplomatic and economic ties with China, driven by growing frustration and concerns over the perceived unreliability of the United States as a security and trade partner. Key evidence includes high-level visits from European and Indo-Pacific leaders, resulting in agreements focused on diversifying trade, green energy cooperation, and AI technology. Experts caution that while these moves signal a desire to 'de-risk' and reduce reliance on the U.S., the strategy is largely symbolic and lacks coordinated substance. The primary implication is that allies are adopting an 'a la carte' hedging approach, which grants China increased time and space to build geopolitical leverage with the West.
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The U.S.-China rivalry is defined by a state of 'mutually assured disruption,' where technological competition (semiconductor controls vs. rare earth embargoes) creates an unstable equilibrium. While the U.S. maintains a lead in AI frontier model development, China holds an advantage in deployment speed and cost, suggesting rough parity. Policy efforts should focus on immediate, proactive dialogue regarding AI safety and non-proliferation, drawing parallels to Cold War treaties. Crucially, any safety negotiations must be conducted while simultaneously tightening technological loopholes to maintain strategic leverage and prevent being outmaneuvered.
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The article argues that the concept of great power spheres of influence has evolved beyond traditional military boundaries, now manifesting in functional domains like critical technology and digital infrastructure. This shift allows powerful states, such as China, to consolidate an 'open sphere' by leveraging economic and technological influence, particularly if the United States makes unilateral concessions or is strategically distracted. The author warns that the U.S.'s willingness to make policy concessions regarding Taiwan and its diminishing reliability as a security guarantor could hasten China's consolidation of influence in the Indo-Pacific. Strategically, this necessitates that Washington update its understanding of modern spheres to prevent a major geopolitical division that could escalate into conflict.
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Following a period of appeasement to the US under a volatile administration, European nations have undergone a strategic pivot toward self-reliance and collective action. This shift was catalyzed by perceived US overreach, prompting Europe to coordinate joint military exercises, activate anti-coercion tools, and establish a collective defense financing program. Economically, the EU is rapidly constructing a parallel trading system through major bilateral deals (e.g., India, Australia), reducing dependence on traditional transatlantic markets. These developments signal that Europe is building a more resilient, sovereign security and economic core, materially altering its geopolitical trajectory toward strategic autonomy.
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Beijing argues that the unraveling of the U.S.-led global order is ushering in an 'age of anarchy,' forcing China to abandon its anti-imperialist doctrine of non-interference. To safeguard its vast global commercial empire and critical supply chains, China is rapidly militarizing its foreign policy by building a comprehensive, forward-deployed security architecture. This strategy involves expanding intelligence collection, deepening security cooperation with foreign states, and deploying private security assets to protect infrastructure and trade routes far beyond its immediate periphery. This shift signals a move from diplomatic influence to overt, state-backed security enforcement to ensure the continuity of Chinese power.
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This RAND report develops a scenario-planning framework to analyze the complex future mental health landscape of the UK Armed Forces community through 2045. The analysis identifies key stressors, including the evolving character of conflict, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader societal trends like increased mental health awareness and technological disruption. The core finding is that the sector must move beyond reactive care, requiring proactive, collaborative strategic planning across military, NHS, and third-sector organizations. Ultimately, the report stresses the need for adaptable and resilient support systems to meet the unique and growing mental health needs of personnel and veterans.
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The article argues that China has significantly increased its leverage over the United States, constraining Washington's ability to set its own national security agenda. This shift is evidenced by the U.S. ceding authority over its own national security measures, such as export controls, in exchange for easing trade tensions following the 2025 trade war. Furthermore, China is successfully linking areas of cooperation and difference, forcing the U.S. to prioritize diplomatic optics over substantive policy goals. The implication is that Washington's decision-making is now constrained by Beijing, potentially emboldening China to test American resolve on vital interests like Taiwan and advanced technology.
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While US instability creates a theoretical geostrategic vacuum for China, the article argues that Beijing's ability to capitalize on this opportunity is limited. Global powers are increasingly adopting a 'hedging' strategy, seeking to reduce vulnerability to both US and Chinese influence, suggesting the competition is not zero-sum. China faces specific hurdles, including deep skepticism in Europe (due to Russia ties and trade issues) and poor returns on its soft power investments. Consequently, the global balance of power is shifting, but the primary implication is that both the US and China risk losing global influence as nations prioritize strategic balancing over alignment.
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The analysis addresses the high stakes of US-China competition, particularly in the context of potential high-level meetings between leaders like Trump and Xi Jinping. It argues that the current political uncertainty within the US complicates traditional bipartisan foreign policy approaches, requiring policymakers to navigate a complex landscape. Key flashpoints discussed include trade, technology, Taiwan, and Ukraine, underscoring the breadth of the strategic rivalry. Consequently, the brief implies that US strategy must adapt to manage this intense competition while mitigating the risks posed by domestic political volatility.
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The Trump administration’s decision to pull five thousand troops from Germany, alongside the potential cancellation of Tomahawk cruise missiles slated for deployment in 2027, poses a significant threat to European security and NATO deterrence. This move, driven by a desire to punish European criticism of the Iran war, exacerbates existing issues including depleted U.S. stockpiles due to the ongoing conflict and delayed deliveries of critical defense systems like NASAMS and HIMARS. The potential loss of the Tomahawk missiles, intended to counter Russian missiles, further weakens European defenses and highlights a growing credibility gap for U.S. deterrence. Ultimately, these actions contribute to a more vulnerable security environment for U.S. allies in Europe.
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The ongoing Iran war shock has highlighted the vulnerability of global energy markets and underscored the urgent need for accelerated energy innovation. CFR’s new Global Energy Innovation Index reveals that innovation efforts have stagnated, particularly in areas like renewable energy adoption and patenting, leading to limited options for responding to crises. The article emphasizes that necessity drives invention, exemplified by fuel-switching measures and stockpile releases, but stresses the importance of sustained government investment in research and development alongside private sector innovation. Ultimately, a renewed focus on energy innovation, particularly in areas like geothermal and advanced energy storage, is crucial to mitigating future disruptions and ensuring long-term energy security.
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A recent CFR analysis highlights Mali as a critical linchpin in West Africa, now facing a severe jihadist siege fueled by a coordinated alliance between al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and Tuareg separatists. The attacks, including the death of a defense minister and the withdrawal of Russian Africa Corps mercenaries, demonstrate a significant escalation in violence and instability. Mali’s strategic importance is underscored by its role in great power competition, hosting a substantial Russian military presence and abundant natural resources, particularly lithium. This situation threatens the stability of the broader Sahel region, potentially emboldening extremist groups in neighboring countries and raising concerns about the future of the Alliance of Sahel States.
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Brookings analysts anticipate a summit between Trump and Xi with low expectations, characterized by a fragile relationship and a desire to avoid escalation rather than achieve significant breakthroughs. While both leaders seek to maintain a trade truce and avoid conflict, risks remain, particularly concerning tariff restorations and potential shifts in U.S. policy on Taiwan. The meeting's significance lies in its role as a crucial communication channel to prevent miscalculation, and there's a potential for discussions on AI safety and cooperation, though deeper issues like talent competition and fentanyl remain unresolved.
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Foreign Affairs’ analysis, dated May 8, 2026, posits that Iran has weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, creating a sustained economic threat comparable to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Evidence suggests Iran’s sustained attacks utilizing mines, missiles, and drones have effectively blocked the waterway despite U.S. and Israeli military efforts. This situation is characterized by a durable leverage point for Tehran, stemming from its investment in asymmetric warfare capabilities and a global economy increasingly reliant on Gulf oil. Policy implications necessitate a shift from relying solely on military force and diplomatic pressure to building energy resilience, diversifying supply chains, and bolstering shipping routes to mitigate future disruptions and diminish Iran’s strategic advantage.
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This Foreign Affairs article argues that Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine represented a culmination of a decades-long strategy of revisionism, aiming to reshape European security and challenge the existing rules-based international order. Evidence points to Russia’s persistent efforts to undermine Western influence through actions at the UN and its promotion of a multipolar world. The article suggests Russia’s ambitions have consistently prioritized asserting its own power and rejecting constraints on its actions. Consequently, a sustained, proactive strategy focused on deterrence and supporting Ukraine’s resilience is crucial.
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This CFR analysis details a shift in U.S. military deployment in Europe, driven by tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and President Trump’s disagreements with European allies. The U.S. is reducing its troop presence, aiming for pre-Ukraine war levels, with a planned withdrawal of approximately 5,000 troops from Germany. Despite this drawdown, the U.S. maintains a significant military footprint across Europe, primarily through the Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) in Eastern European NATO countries and ongoing training exercises. These deployments focus on forward defense, logistics, and training allied forces, particularly in support of Ukraine’s defense. The analysis highlights the continued importance of U.S. forces in bolstering NATO’s security posture and managing nuclear assets within the alliance.
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CSIS analysis indicates that Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi has enacted a landmark shift in defense export policy, effectively removing restrictions on arms sales to a defined list of partner nations. This change, driven by participation in key programs like the Global Combat Aircraft Program and support for the Royal Australian Navy, aims to foster a more ‘normal’ defense industrial profile for Japan. While industry’s success hinges on continued government support and expanded collaboration, the policy represents a significant step towards greater engagement in the global defense market. The initial export focus will be on 17 countries, primarily within Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, excluding Ukraine at this time.
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The conflict in Iran presents a mixed strategic picture for Beijing, offering diplomatic opportunities by allowing China to position itself as a neutral mediator and distracting the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific. However, these gains are offset by significant economic instability, energy market volatility, and the exposure of China's limited operational reach in the region. Strategically, Beijing's primary concern remains maintaining stability with the U.S. to ensure its continued rise, leading it to prioritize de-escalation over deep regional involvement. Ultimately, China must navigate the tension between asserting regional influence and mitigating the severe economic risks posed by disrupted global supply chains.
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The analysis examines the K-shaped economy, which describes a widening divergence between the wealthy and the less well-off. However, the report challenges the prevailing narrative of decline, noting that real, inflation-adjusted wages for the lowest earners have shown significant cumulative gains, contradicting the 'K' story. The perceived divergence is often attributed to the wealthy's ability to draw on savings during economic shocks, which affects consumption patterns more than underlying wage growth. Policymakers must therefore distinguish between wage trends and consumption patterns, recognizing that economic shocks exacerbate visible inequality even if core wage data remains stable.
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The global economy faces unprecedented fragility, driven by the intersection of opaque private credit growth and severe geopolitical shocks. The primary stressor is the ongoing Iran conflict, which threatens critical shipping lanes, causing commodity shortages and forcing nations into inflationary, protectionist policies. This confluence of high global debt, supply shocks, and central bank dilemmas suggests a period of unpredictable market behavior and potential financial market dysfunction. Policymakers must monitor deteriorating financial market functioning and the risk of systemic stress across major economies.
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This CFR analysis argues that the recent conflict with Iran offers three key lessons for nuclear security negotiations. First, military strikes alone are insufficient to dismantle a sophisticated nuclear program, as demonstrated by the limited impact of air attacks and the ongoing challenges faced by the IAEA. Second, reliance on force can incentivize concealment of nuclear activities, hindering transparency and inspection efforts. Finally, the conflict highlighted the inherent disparities within the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), particularly regarding access to nuclear technology for nations that did not initially test weapons. Consequently, negotiators should aim for ‘better-than-nothing’ deals, focusing on reaffirming the NPT’s core bargain and establishing a framework for continued dialogue and inspection, even if complete disarmament remains elusive.
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The global press freedom index has reached its worst level in 25 years, driven by a sharp increase in the criminalization of journalism across most nations. Key threats include state authorities leveraging national security and defense secrets, alongside powerful corporate and political entities utilizing abusive lawsuits to suppress coverage. On the ground, authoritarian regimes are employing sophisticated tactics, such as internet blackouts and exploiting global chaos, to dismantle independent reporting. Policymakers must recognize that the erosion of free press is a systemic risk, requiring targeted diplomatic and technical support for journalists and civil society to maintain democratic accountability.
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This Foreign Affairs article argues that the recent flurry of diplomatic visits by Western leaders to China is largely driven by a strategic hedging response to former President Trump’s increasingly adversarial relationship with the United States and its allies. Faced with what they perceive as a predatory U.S. foreign policy, countries like Canada, France, and others are seeking to maintain channels of communication with China to avoid being fully aligned with Washington. However, this approach risks legitimizing China’s authoritarianism and reinforcing Beijing’s narrative of a rising global power. The article calls for greater coordination among Western allies, setting clear redlines, and a more assertive approach from the U.S. to deter coercive behavior and safeguard shared interests, particularly regarding technological advantage and supply chain diversification.
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The development of superintelligence, exemplified by DeepMind's work, represents a transformative, dual-use technology comparable to nuclear power, promising massive gains in fields like medicine (e.g., AlphaFold). The analysis highlights that while pioneers like Demis Hassabis approach AI from a fundamental scientific motivation, the race dynamic makes global safety governance challenging. Strategically, the findings suggest that emerging markets view AI as a primary engine for development, contrasting with the caution seen in advanced economies due to job displacement fears. Policymakers must therefore focus on guiding AI development toward applications with clear human benefits to ensure global acceptance and manage the inherent risks of this powerful new technology.
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Recent coordinated attacks in Mali, including the death of the Defense Minister, highlight a deteriorating security situation and the failure of military juntas and their Russian partners to effectively combat militant groups. The attacks, involving both al Qaeda-linked groups and Tuareg separatists, demonstrate a complex conflict driven by local grievances and separatist aspirations, not just terrorism. The U.S., as it re-engages in the Sahel, risks repeating Russia's mistakes by prioritizing security for resources and neglecting governance and local dynamics, necessitating a more multidimensional approach focused on genuine partnership and addressing underlying economic and political issues.
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Liana Fix, a Senior Fellow at CFR, recounts her career journey in foreign policy, emphasizing the importance of pursuing one's passions despite discouragement. Her experiences, from studying war in a pacifist Germany to living in Russia and the US, highlight the disconnect between conventional wisdom and geopolitical realities. Fix's career trajectory underscores the value of intellectual curiosity, courage in voicing original ideas, and the evolving nature of European security, particularly Germany's shift towards rearmament in response to Russia's actions and broader geopolitical changes.
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42.China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran (Chatham House)
The war in Iran is unlikely to establish China as a direct replacement for the US as the Gulf's security provider, but it is accelerating the region's strategic shift away from absolute reliance on American guarantees. This dynamic allows China to gain influence by positioning itself as a diplomatic and technological partner, rather than a military guarantor. Gulf states are diversifying their defense procurement and seeking alternative regional stability models. Consequently, China is well-positioned to promote its own normative framework for regional cooperation, making its principles appealing to nations seeking stability without US-centric security commitments.
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A CFR analysis published in 2026 assesses the military campaign in the Iran War as largely ineffective in achieving strategic objectives. Despite significant damage inflicted on Iranian conventional weapons and naval capabilities, Iran continues to control vital waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and launch attacks, demonstrating a resilience that undermines the campaign’s success. The analysis highlights a crucial distinction between the ‘war of destruction’ – where the US Air Force achieved relative success – and a ‘war of disruption’ focused on countering Iranian drone and missile attacks, which the US has struggled with, leading to continued disruption of maritime traffic. Ultimately, the report concludes that Iran has effectively won the air war that matters most, highlighting the limitations of airpower in complex asymmetric conflicts.
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This CSIS analysis argues that effective policy implementation hinges on competent management, and neglecting this can undermine even well-intentioned policies. The article highlights recent mismanagement at the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), leading to backlogs, strained industry relations, and isolation from international partners, ultimately hindering export control efforts. The author emphasizes the importance of leveraging career expertise, fostering communication with industry, and maintaining multilateral cooperation for successful policy outcomes.
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President Trump has paused the U.S. military’s Hormuz shipping mission, citing progress in negotiations with Iran and a desire to facilitate a final agreement. This decision follows escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on U.S.-flagged vessels and heightened concerns over Iranian nuclear activity. The move reflects a strategic shift towards prioritizing a diplomatic resolution, although the U.S. maintains a naval blockade. Rising energy prices, exacerbated by the situation in the Persian Gulf, are a significant consequence of this policy change, highlighting the vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical instability. This action underscores a renewed focus on diplomacy within the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran.
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The recent Balikatan exercise in the Philippines showcased a new U.S. Army concept called 'Littoral Deep Battle,' designed to counter potential amphibious landings, particularly in the context of a Taiwan contingency. The exercise involved combined forces from the U.S., Philippines, Japan, and Canada, utilizing drone swarms, HIMARS rocket systems, and layered defenses to simulate repelling an invasion. This approach integrates lessons from Ukraine, emphasizes unmanned systems, and demonstrates a shift towards a more distributed and lethal coastal defense posture, with implications for regional security and alliance interoperability.
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47.Force Multipliers in the Americas: Harnessing Security Force Assistance to Bolster Homeland Defense and U.S. Strategic Objectives in Latin America (RAND)
This RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the U.S. Department of War can effectively leverage security force assistance (SFA) activities in Latin America to bolster homeland defense, counter transnational threats, and advance U.S. strategic influence. The report highlights the increasing convergence of threats from state adversaries and non-state actors, emphasizing the need for innovative SFA approaches, particularly utilizing the Army Security Cooperation Group—South and National Guard State Partnership Programs. Ultimately, the report suggests that targeted SFA can be a cost-effective tool for addressing regional challenges and countering Chinese influence.
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The upcoming mandatory review of the USMCA is expected to be highly contentious, driven by historical U.S. tariff actions that have undermined regional integration and caused significant strain, particularly with Canada. In response, Mexico and Canada are attempting to hedge against an unreliable Washington by forming independent bilateral partnerships. While the agreement may remain in force even without immediate consensus, the U.S. may attempt to leverage the review to push its neighbors toward a 'rules of control' paradigm, forcing common external tariffs or export controls, especially concerning China. For stability, the U.S. should aim for an expeditious reaffirmation of the USMCA with minimal modifications to prevent trade uncertainty.
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While King Charles III's state visit offers symbolic reassurance of enduring transatlantic ties, the report argues that it cannot resolve the deep structural forces pulling the U.S.-UK alliance apart. Key evidence points to significant strategic divergence, including disagreements on Iran, trade tariffs, climate policy, and NATO burden-sharing, compounded by political instability in both nations. Consequently, the 'special relationship' is undergoing a necessary recalibration, with the UK increasingly prioritizing partnerships with EU member states and viewing Europe as a more stable strategic anchor than the assumption of an unbreakable transatlantic bond. Policy implications suggest that the UK must focus on deepening continental cooperation to mitigate the risks of strategic isolation and geopolitical uncertainty.
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Germany's 'Zeitenwende' signals a profound shift from economic influence to strategic military leadership, positioning it as an increasingly assertive and unavoidable power in Europe. While substantial funding and procurement (e.g., F-35s, special funds) demonstrate political intent, the article argues that this rearmament risks outpacing strategic coherence. Key challenges include persistent deficiencies in the Bundeswehr's readiness, the lack of a unified military doctrine, and deep institutional inertia. For Germany to successfully assume a leading role, it must overcome these internal structural hurdles—including its risk-averse economic model and political fragmentation—to translate resources into usable, deployable force.
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The UAE's announced exit from OPEC and OPEC+ signals a significant weakening of the cartel's ability to coordinate and influence global oil supply. This move is driven by Abu Dhabi's desire for greater energy policy autonomy and a growing geopolitical divergence from Saudi Arabia. The withdrawal adds to market unpredictability, suggesting that major producers are increasingly prioritizing national strategic interests over coordinated cartel pricing efforts. This shift implies a move toward decentralized energy policies, challenging OPEC's historical role as the primary arbiter of global oil prices.
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The ongoing instability in the Gulf is creating systemic global risk by eroding energy and trade buffers, threatening macroeconomic stability across the Indo-Pacific. This immediate crisis distracts the United States from its core long-term strategic challenge: the economic and technological competition with China. While the U.S. gains some leverage in infrastructure, the article argues that Washington lacks a clear, predictable, and durable economic strategy to counter Beijing's methodical build-up of semiconductor and AI capacity. Policy must therefore prioritize developing a long-term economic competition framework that transcends crisis management and uses export controls with discipline to avoid accelerating Chinese indigenization.
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The analysis concludes that despite ongoing high-level purges, China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a massive, deliberate, and highly successful modernization effort, making it a formidable military force. Key evidence points to the PLA's exponential growth in budget and capabilities—including missile, cyber, and maritime assets—and the purges themselves are viewed as Xi Jinping's serious effort to ensure the military's absolute loyalty to the Party and to him. Strategically, this indicates that China is building a force capable of presenting challenges to the U.S. military that have not been seen since World War II, necessitating a serious reassessment of US Indo-Pacific military policy.
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Emanuel argues that America's internal political divisions and systemic failures are its greatest strategic vulnerability, potentially overshadowing geopolitical challenges like China. Regarding the Middle East, he labels the current conflict with Iran a 'war of choice' and outlines a multi-phase strategy to stabilize the region. This plan involves immediately ensuring the free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by establishing UN oversight and redefining the Abraham Accords. Ultimately, the U.S. must leverage these accords as a financing and infrastructure vehicle to bypass the Strait, thereby undermining Iran's regional leverage and securing long-term economic stability.
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The Brookings report argues that deep energy system integration across the EU and with neighboring states is essential for navigating the energy trilemma—balancing security, affordability, and sustainability. This integration enhances security by allowing cross-border transfers to buffer supply shocks, while it boosts sustainability and affordability by optimizing the management of intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar. To realize these benefits, policymakers must undertake massive investments in cross-border infrastructure and, critically, address the political and social challenges of cost allocation and loss of local control. Ultimately, sustained political will is required to overcome these hurdles, transforming a more integrated energy system into a core driver of European growth and strategic autonomy.
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Trump has rejected Iran's peace overtures and vowed to maintain the U.S. naval blockade, arguing that sustained pressure is necessary to force Tehran into a nuclear agreement. Experts concur that controlling the Strait of Hormuz is the primary strategic objective, as this leverage is essential to deter Iran's nuclear ambitions and stabilize the region. The continued blockade and potential military strikes are therefore viewed as the most critical policy tools to manage the conflict, despite the escalating financial and military costs. This suggests that the U.S. strategy remains focused on economic strangulation and military deterrence rather than immediate diplomatic resolution.
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Global immunization efforts are facing significant setbacks due to a combination of conflict, declining public confidence, and weak health systems, threatening global health security. Evidence shows that the United States is experiencing measles outbreaks, while international support mechanisms like Gavi face funding uncertainty and political headwinds. For policy, the findings underscore the urgent need to reinforce both domestic public health messaging and stable international commitments to prevent outbreaks and maintain vaccine-preventable disease elimination status.
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Türkiye is undergoing a profound strategic shift to achieve defense-industrial autonomy by building a sophisticated, multi-layered missile arsenal. This transformation is evidenced by a twin-track approach that combines limited foreign imports with aggressive domestic development of both ballistic and cruise missiles. Key advancements include extending missile ranges far beyond initial capabilities and enabling diverse, multi-platform strike options through domestic engine development. This rapid build-up significantly enhances Türkiye's strategic deterrent capabilities, reducing reliance on NATO guarantees and projecting power across wider regional areas.
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The recent coordinated attacks in Mali demonstrate that security cannot be achieved through military means alone, exposing the deep fragility of the ruling junta and its external alliances. The strikes by jihadist and Tuareg militants highlighted the limits of military support, including the withdrawal of Russian mercenaries, while simultaneously revealing profound, unresolved ethnic and political grievances. Consequently, the article argues that purely military solutions are unviable; sustainable stabilization requires a strategic pivot toward comprehensive political negotiation, local-level mediation, and addressing underlying community tensions.
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60.
The article argues that the U.S. economy is facing a severe downturn, risking stagflation, driven by a confluence of global and domestic shocks. The primary catalyst is the Iran conflict and the resulting disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which has created a major global supply shock, spiking energy and agricultural input costs. These external pressures, combined with domestic vulnerabilities like tech layoffs, private credit risks, and tariff uncertainty, are fueling inflation and slowing growth. Policymakers must urgently address supply chain resilience and energy security, as the resulting economic instability is poised to become a critical political issue during the upcoming midterm elections, complicating the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
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61.
Major General Lervik argues that landpower is essential for deterrence, arguing that Norway's strategic location and the heightened threat from Russia necessitate a fundamental shift in defense posture. The key evidence for this change is the realization of Russia's aggressive capabilities, particularly following the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a unanimous parliamentary decision to more than double defense spending and significantly expand military capacity. Strategically, this mandates that the Norwegian Army focus on robust homeland defense while also taking greater responsibility for the entire Nordic region, thereby reinforcing NATO's collective security commitment in the face of geopolitical tension.
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62.
U.S. special forces conducted a maritime strike exercise in the Luzon Strait, deploying advanced, explosive-laden unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and other drone systems. This deployment, utilizing technology similar to those seen in the Black Sea, demonstrates the integration of low-range, mass-strike capabilities into U.S.-Philippine joint operations. Strategically, this signals the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's preparation for a "hellscape" concept—relying on overwhelming drone saturation to counter potential Chinese naval forces. This escalation increases military readiness and regional tension in the critical Taiwan flashpoint.
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63.
Russia maintains a vast and rapidly modernizing nuclear arsenal, which it uses to deter Western military intervention and challenge U.S. strategic superiority. Key evidence points to Russia's diversification into dual-capable systems, hypersonic glide vehicles, and counter-space weapons, complicating traditional deterrence. These novel capabilities severely challenge U.S. ability to detect and characterize an inbound attack, particularly following the expiration of the New START Treaty. Consequently, the report advises Congress to urgently reassess U.S. deterrence and risk reduction policies, including considering future arms control frameworks.
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64.
The transition to critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) presents a 'new resource curse' far more volatile than the historical oil curse. This risk is amplified by the rapid technological shifts, the geographical concentration of deposits, and the fact that China currently dominates the processing and refining stages for most critical minerals. Unlike the stable, rules-bound oil market, the current geopolitical environment lacks a reliable global governance framework, making supply chains highly susceptible to state-level geopolitical throttling. Policymakers must therefore prepare for unprecedented structural instability, necessitating strategic efforts to diversify supply chains and mitigate risks associated with technological and geopolitical competition.
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65.
The primary threat to Taiwan is not a traditional military invasion, but rather a sophisticated 'gray zone' coercion utilizing economic and logistical control, such as establishing a quarantine over maritime and air links. China is leveraging this control to restrict key exports, particularly advanced semiconductor components, thereby forcing regional compliance without triggering a full-scale conflict. Consequently, the U.S. must shift its strategic focus from preparing for military war games to developing integrated economic and diplomatic plans with allies. Deterring a severe financial and political crisis requires pre-coordinated responses to cushion market shocks and manage potential partial decoupling from China.
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66.
The analysis concludes that while an indefinite ceasefire has temporarily paused hostilities, a lasting resolution to the Iran conflict is highly improbable due to fundamental, irreconcilable differences between the US and the Iranian regime. Key sticking points include the Iranian control over the vital Strait of Hormuz and the regime's insistence on its nuclear enrichment capabilities, which the US demands be curtailed by a lengthy moratorium. Consequently, the conflict remains strategically volatile; if diplomatic negotiations fail to bridge these deep divides, the region is likely to revert to an active military phase, maintaining significant geopolitical risk.
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67.
The analysis argues that while U.S. sanctions are powerful tools for geopolitical leverage, they inevitably generate unintended loopholes, exemplified by the 'shadow fleet.' Enforcement strategies must be highly tailored, ranging from the banking-focused 'carrot and stick' model used against Iran, to the price-cap mechanism implemented against Russia. This shift demonstrates that modern sanctions must balance punitive goals with the critical need to maintain global energy market stability. Policymakers must therefore design sophisticated regimes that prevent market shocks while achieving strategic objectives.
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68.
Regional stability remains precarious, characterized by ongoing diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon set against a backdrop of a stalled U.S.-Iran negotiation. The U.S. faces a strategic dilemma: how to translate military pressure into political concessions without risking a massive, costly escalation, as evidenced by heightened rhetoric near the Strait of Hormuz. This impasse keeps regional actors volatile, while the U.S. military continues to absorb significant losses. Policy implications suggest that major powers are currently constrained from decisive action, leading to continued high-stakes tension and limited diplomatic breakthroughs.
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69.The Strait of Hormuz energy crisis shows the EU’s carbon pricing is the right approach (Chatham House)
The energy crisis stemming from the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates the profound vulnerability of relying on volatile fossil fuel imports. The analysis argues that the EU's existing carbon pricing mechanism, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), is the essential long-term solution, as it has proven effective in driving decarbonization and reducing emissions while generating revenue for clean energy investments. Policymakers must therefore strengthen the ETS and prioritize coordinated joint procurement of resources to mitigate geopolitical shocks. Ad-hoc national subsidies, conversely, risk undermining the 'polluter pays principle' and fragmenting the European market.
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70.
The core argument presented is that the United States is currently experiencing a state of "superpower suicide," a decline that is largely self-inflicted rather than purely structural. This systemic weakening is evidenced by the erosion of institutional integrity across multiple domains, including education, research, and adherence to democratic norms. The analysis stresses that the fundamental problem is the loss of a unified ideology of the American state, which is being treated by some actors as merely a prestige or profit-making enterprise. For the US to reverse this decline, policy must focus on restoring institutional stability, reaffirming democratic processes, and establishing a shared, unifying vision of the American state.
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71.
The article argues that the 'greedflation' narrative—which blames corporate price gouging for inflation—is economically unsound. It posits that recent price spikes, such as those in energy, are primarily the result of supply shocks (e.g., geopolitical conflicts like the war in Iran) or excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus. The author contends that market prices reflect true scarcity and opportunity cost, making corporate greed an insufficient explanation for widespread price increases. Policymakers, therefore, must shift accountability away from consumers and companies and instead hold governments and central banks responsible for the policies that generate inflationary pressures.
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72.
The expiration of the U.S.-Iran truce is marked by significant diplomatic uncertainty, despite preparations for potential talks in Pakistan. Key evidence suggests that negotiations are complicated by internal divisions within Iran's leadership and the volatile actions of regional powers, including Israel and the U.S. The core finding is that while the logic for peace exists, the lack of unified, compromising leadership across the region makes achieving a stable diplomatic resolution highly improbable. Consequently, the geopolitical environment remains fragile, increasing the risk of continued tension or conflict.
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73.
Taiwan's progress in building defense resilience and leveraging its status as a tech superpower is being undermined by deep political polarization. While the island has enhanced its military readiness and economic ties with the U.S., the inability to pass a special defense budget due to internal political disputes creates a critical vulnerability. This impasse allows China to exert pressure, making it difficult for Taiwan to maintain deterrence and invest in necessary defense capabilities. Strategically, Taiwan must prioritize internal political consensus to fund its defense and resilience efforts, thereby eliminating coercion as a viable option for Beijing and forcing dialogue.
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74.Lord Robertson: UK’s ‘naïve belief’ the US ‘will always be there’ has diminished its defence capabilities (Chatham House)
Lord Robertson argues that the UK's historical 'naïve belief' in the perpetual support of the United States has led to a dangerous diminishment of its own defense capabilities. He cites recent strains in the UK-US relationship, such as geopolitical disagreements and the US's shifting focus, as evidence that the US's role as global steward is waning. Consequently, the report urges the UK to pivot away from high military dependence on Washington, emphasizing the urgent need to build greater autonomy and develop robust defense partnerships with European allies. This shift is necessary to deter aggression and adapt to a fundamentally destabilizing international system.
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75.
Rafael Grossi argues that the UN requires a proactive, 'realist' leader to revitalize its mission and restore global trust amid mounting crises. He draws on his experience at the IAEA, citing his ability to manage complex, high-stakes negotiations in conflict zones, such as preventing a nuclear accident in occupied Ukraine. His strategy emphasizes taking the initiative to forestall conflict and maintaining constant engagement with the Security Council, even when consensus is difficult. Ultimately, Grossi suggests that by exercising diplomatic authority and restoring trust among major powers, the UN can overcome its funding and institutional challenges.
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76.
The attempted shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner underscores the persistent threat of political violence against democratic institutions. Global leaders and domestic politicians from various parties issued strong condemnations, providing evidence that the threat is systemic and bipartisan. Policy-wise, the consensus among leaders suggests that a unified political front is crucial to counter the erosion of civil liberties and maintain democratic stability in the Americas.
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77.
The article argues that the deliberate weaponization of food—through blocking aid or targeting infrastructure—is a growing, global trend that operates with near impunity, despite international legal prohibitions. This crisis is exacerbated by the decline of global humanitarian funding and systemic failures within international governance, particularly the political deadlock and veto power within the UN Security Council. Strategically, the report calls for a shift toward strengthening accountability mechanisms, including targeted sanctions and independent monitoring, while also advocating for the diversification of aid funding away from traditional state-led models.
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78.
The report identifies a critical "missing middle" gap, estimated at $100-$200 billion, where emerging energy technologies struggle to transition from small-scale proof-of-concept to commercial deployment due to perceived investment risk. This gap is exacerbated by global economic shifts, such as inflation and rising interest rates, which make large-scale, high-risk capital difficult to secure. To bridge this, the authors argue that relying solely on private investment is insufficient, necessitating a multi-faceted approach. Policy solutions must combine public demand guarantees (federal and state level) with private risk-transfer mechanisms, such as new insurance models, to de-risk projects and stimulate diverse capital flows. The successful scaling of energy innovation requires a combination of policy support and private sector action, rather than any single solution.
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79.
Tensions between Iran and the U.S. remain critically high, despite temporary ceasefires, fueled by recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz. Key evidence includes the U.S. seizure of Iranian cargo vessels and reciprocal drone attacks by Iran in the Gulf of Oman, while diplomatic efforts are stalled by Iran's rejection of proposals regarding its enriched uranium stockpile. The primary implication is that regional stability and global energy flow are highly vulnerable; the true economic impact hinges on the duration of the ceasefire and the success of sustained diplomatic efforts to normalize maritime traffic.
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80.
Orbán's electoral defeat in Hungary represents a significant shift away from illiberalism, providing a major boost to European democratic norms and stability. The opposition's victory, driven by voter concern over domestic corruption and the economy, gives the new government the mandate to reverse Orbán's anti-EU reforms and restore deep ties with NATO. Strategically, this development strengthens the NATO-EU front, increases the potential for unified sanctions against Russia, and accelerates the push for EU institutional reform, such as ending national vetoes.
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81.
Orbán's defeat in the Hungarian election signals a rejection of his entrenched political system, driven primarily by domestic concerns like economic stagnation rather than geopolitical narratives. While the political model of 'Orbánism' may persist in opposition, the immediate implication is positive for EU cohesion, as the new government is expected to be less obstructive and more predictable in its relations with Brussels. This shift improves the EU's overall security posture, potentially easing coordination on issues like Ukraine and strengthening the center-right European People's Party (EPP). Strategically, the result serves as a warning to European populists that economic distress can overturn even the most durable political systems.
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82.
Grossi argues that the current global environment, marked by a 'multiplication of conflict,' has led to a crisis of confidence in the United Nations' effectiveness. He counters this skepticism by highlighting his operational experience, specifically detailing his successful establishment of a permanent, independent mission at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Ukrainian territory. This case serves as key evidence that the Secretary-General must be an active, hands-on mediator, willing to navigate intense geopolitical opposition to manage critical, non-military threats. The implication for policy is that the UN requires a leader who can exercise diplomatic muscle and technical expertise to maintain international stability and prevent catastrophic crises.
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83.
The analysis concludes that regardless of the election outcome, Hungary's policy choices are constrained by deep structural factors, making a systemic shift unlikely. Key constraints include economic pressures from conditional EU funding and critical energy infrastructure dependence on Russian technology and gas routes. Consequently, any future government will pursue a trajectory of 'gradual rebalancing' in foreign and energy policy, rather than making a clean break with either the EU or Russia. This suggests that while political leadership may change, the underlying strategic dependencies will dictate a cautious, pragmatic approach to regional alignment.
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84.
The Chatham House analysis highlights that Ukraine faces a staggering reconstruction challenge, with the total cost of recovery estimated at nearly $588 billion. Achieving economic stability requires a massive, coordinated effort involving the Ukrainian state, Western donors, the private sector, and civil society. The primary strategy involves deep structural reforms and accelerating integration with the European Union to catalyze growth and ensure a predictable business environment. Policy efforts must therefore focus on developing long-term security assurances, implementing market reforms, and strategically positioning Ukraine within emerging European value chains.
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85.Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt: Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency (RAND)
This RAND report identifies agricultural security in the U.S. Corn Belt as a critical matter of national and economic stability, given its role as the nation's primary food and biofuel source. The region faces complex, interacting threats, including biological pathogens, extreme climate variability, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the risk of agroterrorism. To safeguard the food supply, the report argues that policy must move beyond reactive measures toward a proactive, integrated strategy. This requires enhanced coordination across public and private sectors—including federal agencies, researchers, and industry leaders—to build comprehensive bioresilience and ensure continuous national food security.
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86.
This article details the evolution of a career in human rights advocacy, arguing that when domestic judicial systems fail, international law and mechanisms must be mobilized to protect citizens. Drawing from personal experience under military dictatorship, the author emphasizes that effective advocacy requires rigorous, impartial documentation of abuses, regardless of the perpetrator's political ideology. Key strategies include building bipartisan international support (e.g., in the U.S. Congress) and establishing specialized NGOs to push for the evolution of global legal definitions, such as those concerning torture. For policy, the findings underscore the critical need for sustained support of independent civil society groups and international legal frameworks to prevent state-sponsored abuses and maintain democratic accountability.
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87.
The Iran War is accelerating a major trend: the formation of a powerful, global network of authoritarian collaboration, spearheaded by China and Russia. This collaboration is evident through critical military and economic support provided to Iran, and is strategically advancing the goal of global dedollarization, exemplified by Iran's use of the yuan in the Strait of Hormuz. Policy implications suggest that the world is moving toward a post-U.S. world order, challenging democratic institutions and traditional alliances. Policymakers must recognize that this growing autocracy bloc is defying historical assumptions about international cooperation and poses a systemic threat to the existing global order.
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88.
The U.S. Navy has finalized plans to integrate Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3 MSE) missiles onto its Aegis-equipped destroyers and cruisers. This upgrade leverages the existing Mark 41 VLS and Aegis Combat System to significantly boost naval air defense capabilities. The decision is driven by the high tempo of recent conflicts in the Middle East and the strategic necessity of reinforcing U.S. defenses against advanced threats. Crucially, the integration is designed to counter evolving anti-ship and hypersonic missile capabilities posed by adversaries, particularly China and Russia, in the Indo-Pacific theater.
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89.
Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo argues that the recent conflict with Iran, despite diverting assets, provides valuable lessons that will strengthen U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The conflict demonstrated the power of asymmetric warfare and low-cost munitions, a capability that adversaries like China are studying for potential use against Taiwan. To maintain regional stability and 'overmatch' China's expected military expansion, the U.S. must urgently increase defense spending, modernize its fleet, and encourage the rapid innovation and production of advanced, non-traditional weapons systems.
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90.
Lithuania's modern statehood is presented as a remarkable achievement, built through overcoming centuries of external pressures and historical instability. Its journey highlights a persistent struggle for self-determination, evidenced by its brief independence periods and the successful struggle for sovereignty in 1990. While currently stable, economically vibrant, and firmly integrated into the EU, the nation's existence remains precarious. The primary strategic implication is the acute threat posed by Russian aggression, suggesting that geopolitical stability and robust Western alignment are critical to safeguarding Lithuania's future.
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91.
The resurgence of nationalism is a major challenge in contemporary Europe, manifesting in diverse forms—from right-wing populism in Poland and France to regionalist movements in Catalonia and Scotland. This trend is undermining the continent's integration by directing anti-EU and anti-federalist discourse against established political norms. The resulting fragmentation, exemplified by various nationalisms competing for attention, threatens stable political coalitions and arrangements across the continent. Policymakers must address this deep-seated political tension to mitigate the risk of further instability and geopolitical conflict.
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92.
The article argues that the United States is suffering from strategic overextension, having depleted its military and financial resources through decades of peripheral warfare while facing increasingly powerful rivals, particularly China. This overextension, coupled with massive national debt, makes the U.S. incapable of fighting multiple major powers simultaneously. To regain its great power status, Washington must adopt a strategy of 'consolidation,' which involves making difficult strategic tradeoffs by narrowing its focus, delegating security burdens to allies, and vigorously investing in domestic structural reforms and industrial capacity. Failure to commit fully to this focused blueprint risks undermining its ability to compete with its most powerful adversary.
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93.
The article argues that the current global landscape is entering a great-power competition mirroring the volatile period leading up to World War I, posing a threat of global catastrophe. Key evidence includes rising nationalism, deep mutual suspicion between major powers (US, China, Russia), and unresolved flashpoints across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Policymakers must adopt sophisticated, historically informed strategies to navigate this tension, recognizing the 'paradox of preparation'—where fear itself can trigger conflict—to prevent a systemic breakdown of international order.
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94.
The Soviet response to the AIDS epidemic was initially defined by state deception and systemic neglect, which was compounded by laws criminalizing homosexuality. Key evidence shows that the spread was significantly driven by injection drug use and poor hospital sanitation, rather than solely sexual contact, highlighting deep infrastructural and public health failures. The eventual improvement in the response was achieved through the combined efforts of progressive local activists and foreign civil society groups. This suggests that managing public health crises in authoritarian or closed societies requires robust external civil support and internal grassroots pressure to overcome state opacity and infrastructural deficiencies.
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95.
The ongoing conflict in Iran is viewed as a global indicator of the receding influence and diminishing strategic capacity of the United States. While the war causes immediate material shocks, such as global energy crises and inflation, its deeper significance is the acceleration of a multipolar shift away from US hegemony. The resulting power vacuum is being filled by alternative global players, including China, Gulf states, and Japan, which are providing critical infrastructure investment and trade to the Global South. Consequently, regional powers are increasingly diversifying their partnerships, making the future of key regions, such as Latin America, less dependent on, and less controllable by, the United States.
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96.
The article analyzes the critical need for sustained Congressional support for Ukraine, particularly in light of shifting and contradictory US political rhetoric. It uses former President Trump's inconsistent statements—ranging from calling Russia a "paper tiger" to proposing a Russia-favorable peace plan—as evidence of the geopolitical instability surrounding the conflict. The core argument is that this lack of clear US policy direction threatens Ukraine's sovereignty and security. Therefore, Congress must provide consistent, robust, and long-term aid to ensure Ukraine's defense and stability, regardless of domestic political fluctuations.
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97.
Under mounting U.S. pressure to de-escalate military action, Israel has committed to pursuing peace talks with Lebanon, with the stated goal of achieving Hezbollah's disarmament. However, the talks face significant hurdles, as Lebanon requires a prior ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, while Hezbollah rejects negotiations without a truce. The U.S. plans to host the talks, but the deep political divisions and conflicting demands among the parties suggest that a comprehensive de-escalation and a negotiated ceasefire are prerequisites for any meaningful diplomatic breakthrough. Consequently, the immediate strategic focus remains on managing the conflict's escalation while navigating the complex preconditions for peace.
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98.
The analysis argues that achieving post-conflict stability requires the United States to adopt a comprehensive, coordinated strategy that extends far beyond military intervention. Key evidence highlights that current U.S. efforts often fail due to a lack of institutional coordination across agencies and a failure to empower local civil society, which is essential for lasting democratic transition. Policy implications stress the need to rebuild multi-agency partnerships, develop clear economic 'off-ramps' from sanctions to responsible investment, and prioritize foundational elements like food, water, and civil society engagement during the planning stages.
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99.
The Brookings analysis argues that generative AI has become a critical weapon of war, enabling state actors like Iran to wage sophisticated information warfare during military conflicts. Key evidence shows that Iran uses AI-generated deepfakes and fabricated footage to project false military strength, sow chaos, and undermine public support for U.S. and Israeli objectives. Strategically, this poses a severe challenge because AI makes disinformation cheaper and more compelling, overwhelming traditional content moderation efforts. Policymakers must therefore develop robust strategies to counter this complex, multi-layered information warfare, recognizing that the difficulty of discerning truth from deepfakes will persist.
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100.
The article argues that while the opposition is polling strongly, successfully unseating Viktor Orbán and achieving deep reform in Hungary remains challenging due to Fidesz's structural control over the electoral system and constitutional mechanisms. Despite this difficulty, a change in leadership would be strategically significant, potentially removing Hungary's roadblock to crucial EU support for Ukraine and diminishing Russia's influence. Ultimately, the outcome signals that European voters retain the domestic power to determine their political direction, regardless of external ideological pressure or foreign endorsements.
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101.
The article argues that the use of export controls has dangerously shifted from a limited national security tool to a broad instrument of economic statecraft, fueling an escalating 'arms race' between the U.S. and China. Key evidence highlights how both nations have weaponized controls—using advanced chips, AI restrictions, and rare earths as bargaining chips in trade negotiations. This tit-for-tat escalation severely erodes the credibility and legitimacy of U.S. export controls, undermining their intended purpose of securing national interests. Policymakers must address this instability, as the current approach hinders multilateral cooperation and risks global economic stability.
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102.
The CSIS analysis argues that the U.S.-Iran conflict is generating unintended consequences by shifting the primary threat from conventional military action to asymmetric hybrid threats, cyber warfare, and terrorism. Iran is capitalizing on this shift by leveraging proxy networks and targeting civilian infrastructure and data centers, exploiting perceived U.S. vulnerabilities in cyber defense and homeland security. Strategically, this necessitates that the U.S. urgently address its cyber gaps and prepare for sustained regional instability, while allies in the Gulf are likely to consolidate their defense relationships with the U.S. and Israel.
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103.
The conflict in Iran has provided a significant economic windfall for Russia, counteracting the negative effects of Western sanctions and physical damage from Ukrainian strikes. Soaring global energy prices, combined with temporary easing of US sanctions, have boosted Russia's oil and gas export revenues, bolstering its budget and balance of payments. Strategically, this increased revenue stream enhances Russia's capacity to sustain its war effort in Ukraine and grants Putin greater leverage in global energy negotiations, though the benefit remains contingent on Ukraine's inability to disrupt physical export volumes.
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104.
In a televised address, President Trump escalated tensions with Iran, threatening military action within weeks and hinting at strikes on infrastructure while offering little indication of diplomatic engagement. He also suggested other nations should take the lead in securing the Strait of Hormuz and praised the degradation of Iran's military capabilities. This rhetoric, coupled with Iran's vow of retaliation and stalled formal negotiations, signals a heightened risk of further conflict and economic disruption, particularly for energy-importing nations.
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105.
A Cato Institute analysis argues that Viktor Orbán's Hungary has eroded the rule of law and free markets, moving away from its initial liberal democratic foundations. The report highlights a significant decline in Hungary's freedom scores across various indices, including Freedom House, V-Dem, and the Human Freedom Index, demonstrating a shift towards an 'illiberal state' characterized by centralized power, cronyism, and weakened institutions. This serves as a cautionary tale against unrestrained executive power and a departure from democratic norms, contrasting sharply with Orbán's self-portrayal as a 'freedom fighter'.
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106.
The article argues that Hungary has solidified into an entrenched autocracy under Viktor Orban, marking a significant democratic reversal over the last decade. Key evidence points to Fidesz's systematic dismantling of democratic institutions, the concentration of political power and wealth among loyalists, and the institutionalization of rule by decree, often citing the Ukraine war as justification. This trajectory suggests that the opposition remains fragmented and voters are increasingly apathetic, making internal democratic correction highly unlikely. For policymakers, this implies that external pressure or strategic engagement must account for Hungary's deeply consolidated, non-democratic political structure.
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107.
According to CFR, President Trump has rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal and threatened a 'complete demolition' of Iranian infrastructure if a deal isn't reached by a looming deadline. This escalation follows Iran's counterproposal, which includes lifting sanctions and infrastructure reconstruction, and has been accompanied by reciprocal attacks between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. U.S. officials justify potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure as necessary to weaken missile and nuclear programs, despite international law concerns, and the situation risks a broader regional conflict.
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108.
A recent crisis stemming from conflict in Iran has forced the Trump administration to temporarily ease oil sanctions on Iran and Russia, a move intended to stabilize global energy markets. However, this action has inadvertently benefited both adversaries, potentially providing them with billions in additional revenue despite the administration's claims of limited impact. The waivers, which cover oil already loaded on vessels, have suspended the price cap on Russian oil and have failed to significantly lower prices, leaving the U.S. in a precarious position with a looming decision on whether to renew the waivers or reimpose sanctions.
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109.
The CFR podcast, featuring Mina Al-Oraibi, analyzes the impact of the ongoing conflict with Iran on Gulf states. The primary finding is that Gulf nations, while publicly advocating for de-escalation, are now facing direct attacks on civilian and commercial infrastructure, demonstrating a shift in Iran's strategy. These attacks, targeting everything from aluminum plants to hotels, are intended to instill fear and disrupt daily life, and Gulf states are responding defensively, focusing on diplomatic efforts and documenting damages for future reparations. The podcast highlights a concerning shift in Iranian decision-making power towards the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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110.
A new Brookings analysis reveals that the energy shocks stemming from the Iran conflict are more severe than initially anticipated, exceeding the scale of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises. While the Strait of Hormuz isn't physically blocked, Iranian actions are disrupting shipping and targeting energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, leading to significant supply shortages and driving up prices, particularly in Asia. The analysis highlights concerns about potential recession and inflation, and warns that the global energy system will be fundamentally altered, with limited spare capacity and a diminished role for Saudi Arabia as a reliable supplier.
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111.
Carla Anne Robbins' career in foreign policy began with a childhood fascination with global affairs and a desire to understand the 'why' behind decisions. Her path, from journalism at publications like the Wall Street Journal to a role as deputy editorial page editor at the New York Times, was driven by a commitment to on-the-ground reporting and a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom. Robbins emphasizes the importance of thorough research and understanding both policy creation and its impact, advocating for a fair and informed approach to international coverage, and highlighting the evolving challenges and dangers faced by journalists in conflict zones.
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112.
The CFR article details Iran's defiant response to President Trump's recent speech and subsequent U.S. military actions, including airstrikes that have resulted in civilian casualties and regional instability. Iran has condemned Trump's rhetoric at the UN and is preparing a framework with Oman to monitor the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously facing accusations of war crimes related to child recruitment. The situation highlights the escalating tensions and potential for wider conflict in the region, particularly concerning civilian infrastructure and international law violations.
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113.
According to Thomas Graham, Russia views the current U.S. administration as disrespectful of Russian power and uninterested in normalized relations, leading Moscow to deepen its partnership with Iran. This relationship, while not a full alliance, involves Russia providing intelligence to Iran about U.S. positions and sharing modified drone technology. The U.S. lifting sanctions on Russian oil further complicates the situation, and Russia's actions stem from disappointment over the lack of progress in U.S.-Russia relations under the Trump administration. Policy implications suggest a need to reassess U.S. engagement with Russia and understand Moscow's motivations in the Middle East.
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114.
The CFR article argues that Europe possesses significant leverage in the ongoing Iran conflict, stemming from its critical military infrastructure and Ukraine's drone expertise, which are vital to U.S. operations. The piece highlights how the war is negatively impacting Europe through rising energy prices, sanctions relief for Russia, and strained U.S. weapons supplies, potentially undermining NATO unity and support for Ukraine. To protect its interests and avoid deeper entanglement, Europe should strategically utilize its leverage – such as logistical support and drone expertise – to push for a ceasefire, secure the Strait of Hormuz, and link support for U.S. actions with continued U.S. commitment to Europe and Ukraine.
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115.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, faces significant geopolitical challenges that threaten to impact attendance and safety. U.S. travel restrictions and security concerns, particularly related to Iran and Mexico's cartel violence, are creating barriers for fans and players. FIFA's commitment to human rights is being tested by the U.S.'s policies, and the tournament's success hinges on navigating these tensions while maintaining a positive image. The U.S. may attempt to leverage the event for diplomatic gains, but the potential for disruptions remains high.
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116.Rebalancing world order in an age of fragmentation: A conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb (Brookings)
The Brookings conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that the current world order is fragmenting, requiring a renewed focus on transatlantic cooperation and bolstering societal resilience. Stubb, drawing on Finland's recent NATO accession and experiences navigating Russian aggression, emphasizes the importance of collective defense, strategic autonomy, and adaptable governance structures. He suggests that democracies must actively counter authoritarian influence and invest in both hard and soft power to maintain stability. This highlights the need for the U.S. and Europe to strengthen their partnership and for nations to prioritize preparedness for evolving security threats.
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117.
The CFR article details escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with President Trump issuing threats to attack Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. These threats follow a recent incident involving the downing of a U.S. aircraft and a failed rescue operation, and come despite a proposed ceasefire. Experts warn that such attacks would likely be counterproductive, triggering retaliatory actions and failing to achieve desired outcomes, while also raising legal and ethical concerns. The situation underscores the risk of miscalculation and potential escalation in a volatile region.
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118.
A new CFR analysis argues that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has evolved into a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine, with both nations leveraging the situation to their advantage. Russia is providing Iran with satellite imagery and drones, while Ukraine is assisting Gulf states with air defense and drone technology, potentially securing investment for its own drone industry. This dynamic complicates U.S. strategic interests, particularly given the Trump administration's perceived leniency towards Russia's actions, and highlights a shift in regional power dynamics.
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119.
According to a CFR analysis, NATO's future is uncertain due to former President Trump's repeated criticisms and threats to withdraw, most recently stemming from disagreements over military action in the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump has successfully pressured NATO members to increase defense spending, his rhetoric undermines the alliance's core principle of collective defense and erodes trust. A U.S. withdrawal, even without formal action, would significantly weaken NATO and diminish U.S. national security, despite continued public support for the alliance.
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120.
The ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran is exacerbating existing weaknesses in the global non-proliferation regime, potentially triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation. Concerns over US commitment to extended deterrence, particularly highlighted by the redeployment of THAAD systems, are fueling discussions about domestic nuclear capabilities in countries like Turkey, Poland, South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. The conflict reinforces the perception that nuclear weapons deter attack, and Iran's potential abandonment of the NPT and development of nuclear weapons could spark a regional arms race.
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121.
The article argues that the stalled peace negotiations in Ukraine are not due to external geopolitical distractions, but rather a fundamental flaw in the U.S.-designed peace framework. This flawed structure centers on a core bargain requiring Ukraine to cede significant territory, specifically nearly 20% of the Donbas/Kyiv-controlled areas, to Russia in exchange for peace. The reliance on such massive territorial concessions makes the proposed formula inherently unsustainable and politically unviable. Policymakers must recognize that any peace strategy built upon these concessions is fundamentally flawed and requires a complete diplomatic overhaul.
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122.
William J. Burns argues that the United States stands at a rare and consequential geopolitical inflection point, characterized by major power competition (China, Russia) and rapid technological change. He warns that the current shift toward hard-power nationalism and the erosion of established alliances and institutions is a form of "slow motion major power suicide." To maintain its global standing, the US must reject this trend and re-embrace a strategy of "enlightened self-interest." This requires blending military strength with soft power, prioritizing the rebuilding of trust among allies, and strengthening institutional cooperation to effectively play its strong hand.
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123.
The article argues that Europe possesses a significant, yet currently underutilized, strategic capacity—an 'untapped arsenal'—essential for maintaining stability in a volatile geopolitical landscape. The reasoning is drawn from recent conflicts, citing both the historical refusal of Western powers to fully defend Ukraine's skies and the current escalation of tensions in the Middle East. These events underscore Europe's growing need for strategic autonomy and self-reliance. Policy implications suggest that Europe must urgently pivot toward developing its own comprehensive defense industrial base and diplomatic capabilities to reduce reliance on external powers and manage escalating global risks.
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124.
This IISS report argues that European NATO allies must accelerate development of independent military space capabilities to reduce dangerous dependence on the United States in a contested space domain threatened by Russia's demonstrated counterspace capabilities. Europe currently relies heavily on the US for critical functions including satellite launch, intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance, missile early warning, and space situational awareness. While European nations have announced significant investments totaling over $100 billion by 2030, these remain fragmented national efforts rather than a coherent strategic framework. The report concludes that burden-sharing with the US would require at least $10 billion and a decade to address critical capability gaps, while true European autonomy would require $25 billion and extend into the late 2030s. Europe requires integrated command-and-control, hardened ground infrastructure, and coordinated procurement among member states to translate space assets into actual deterrence and operational effectiveness.
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125.
Cat Buchatskiy, a Ukrainian who left U.S. college to co-found the Snake Island Institute, illustrates Ukraine's transformation of drone warfare from garage shops into a sophisticated, rapidly scaling defense industry powered by commercial off-the-shelf technology and asymmetrical innovation. Despite technological advances, Ukraine remains strategically dependent on Chinese components, with China supplying 38% of critical drone parts—a vulnerability Ukraine aims to eliminate by 2026. Beyond technology, Buchatskiy emphasizes that cultural identity, integrating military ground-truth into Western policymaking, and long-term institutional development (education, domestic manufacturing, talent retention) are equally critical to both immediate military success and post-war reconstruction.
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126.
President Trump has extended his pause on threatening Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6, signaling an attempt at diplomacy amidst the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. This delay has significant global economic implications, with projections of increased inflation and discussions about potentially diverting aid from Ukraine to the Middle East. Concurrently, international efforts are focused on securing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining support for Ukraine, highlighted by a new security cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Ukraine.
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127.
U.S. allies in Europe and Japan are largely declining to actively join the Iran war, signaling a shift towards strategic independence and pragmatism in their foreign policies despite U.S. pressure. European leaders cite past U.S. actions and domestic political factors for their reluctance, while Japan emphasizes constitutional constraints on military involvement, though both provide some U.S. operational support. The conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose severe economic threats to both regions, impacting energy security and global stability. This growing divergence in interests, coupled with waning U.S. soft power, prompts allies to hedge through diversified relationships, raising questions about the long-term cohesion of U.S. alliances.
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128.Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia’s strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones (Chatham House)
Russia pursues a calculated strategy in the Iran-Israel conflict, acting as spectator, beneficiary, and player while avoiding direct military entanglement. Moscow provides diplomatic support and likely drone assistance to Iran while maintaining deconfliction channels with Israel and the US, extracting advantage without assuming proportional risks. Disruptions in Gulf energy markets have tightened global crude supplies, improving Russia's fiscal position and demonstrating resilience under sanctions. This selective engagement approach reinforces Moscow's narrative of indispensability across multiple theaters and strengthens its negotiating position on Ukraine. Russia's Middle East gains directly feed into the diplomatic calculus, potentially shifting US focus from weakening Russia to managing it, which could increase pressure on Kyiv to accept compromise.
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129.
David J. Scheffer's career demonstrates how individual commitment transformed international norms around accountability for atrocity crimes, from accepting impunity in 1993 to making justice a permanent policy fixture. Working under Madeleine Albright at the UN, Scheffer pioneered the creation of five major war crimes tribunals (Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Cambodia, and the ICC) that shifted accountability from a marginalized concept to a core international law principle. His on-the-ground experiences witnessing mass atrocities' immediate aftermath—including traumatized victims in Sierra Leone and Rwanda—deeply motivated his persistent efforts despite significant government resistance and UN Security Council reluctance to fund repeated institutions. The article illustrates how post-Cold War cooperation enabled the development of international justice mechanisms that now permanently factor into policy deliberations, though enforcement challenges remain against powerful actors like Russia. Scheffer's legacy underscores both the transformational potential of institutional innovation in international law and the ongoing struggle to translate accountability norms into actual justice.
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130.
Iran's current conflict strategy marks a significant shift towards unrestrained retaliation against the U.S. and Israel, characterized by both horizontal and vertical escalation. This involves expanding the conflict geographically to 14 countries and targeting an increasingly diverse array of sites, including civilian infrastructure, within days of the conflict's onset. This aggressive approach aims to impose severe costs and deter future attacks, already leading to dramatic intensification. The ongoing escalation threatens further regional destabilization and global market disruption if a ceasefire is not achieved.
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131.
Russia employs 'cyber proxies'—criminal groups, hacktivists, and private entities with varying degrees of state direction—to conduct disruptive cyberattacks against Ukraine while maintaining plausible deniability and complicating attribution. This proxy model shields the Russian state from sanctions while making coordinated response difficult. Chatham House proposes a strategic approach integrating international and domestic law with cost-imposition and disruption tactics to establish deterrence against cyber proxies of any origin, replacing ad-hoc tactical responses with comprehensive, enabling policies.
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132.
The Iran war underscores the growing normalization of AI-supported targeting in modern warfare, raising significant concerns about its implications. While AI tools enhance efficiency in data processing and target identification, incidents like the alleged strike on an Iranian school highlight risks such as inaccuracies from faulty data and the reduction of human judgment in critical decisions. This trend necessitates the development of clear rules for AI use in conflict to mitigate errors and prevent civilian harm, even as a binding international framework remains distant.
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133.
Europe must undertake bold and comprehensive economic action, including accelerating decarbonization, to mitigate the severe economic consequences of the Iran war and projected prolonged energy disruptions. Learning from past energy crises, the article advocates for a new fiscal package to incentivize electrification, support European manufacturing, and ensure collective financing for Ukraine. Key policy recommendations also include establishing a true European energy union with expedited grid modernization and renewable energy deployment, moving away from ad-hoc national responses towards a unified, financially robust approach for energy security and economic stability.
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134.
President Trump's military campaign against Iran, now three weeks in, is failing to secure international support despite his appeals to NATO and other allies. The US administration faces reluctance from traditional partners to participate or be drawn into the conflict, driven by concerns about regional instability, economic disruption, and the risks of Tehran's retaliatory escalation. The muted European response and lukewarm Gulf state backing complicate the broader strategic objective of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic isolation raises questions about US credibility and alliance cohesion precisely when the administration is simultaneously managing crises in Ukraine, Cuba, and Venezuela.
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135.
The Iran War's disruption of oil and LNG supplies is forcing Asian economies dependent on Middle Eastern energy to fundamentally restructure their energy strategies. Across the region, governments are accelerating nuclear energy development (Japan, China, South Korea), re-embracing coal, and exploring renewable expansion, with South Korea even considering breaching its US nuclear agreement to pursue domestic uranium enrichment. While these shifts address long-term security needs, most Asian states face significant near-term economic pain, as alternative energy sources require time to deploy and the critical Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The crisis reveals Asia's structural energy vulnerabilities and underscores the geopolitical risks of energy insecurity, including potential tensions with security allies and proliferation concerns.
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136.
CFR President Michael Froman argues that the US failure to build robust allied support for securing the Strait of Hormuz reflects a deeper erosion in coalition-building capacity stemming from inadequate consultation and allied perceptions that military action serves primarily US interests. Despite the Strait's critical importance—handling 40% of China's crude oil and significant European energy flows—responses from major allies ranged from outright refusal to lukewarm commitments, while China strategically abstained despite substantial vulnerability to supply disruption. The episode suggests Trump administration policies on tariffs and territorial claims have depleted the diplomatic capital necessary for allies to support US-led military operations, with significant implications for future security commitments requiring broad international participation.
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137.
The Kremlin is implementing widespread internet blackouts and censorship, extending to major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, to tighten its grip on Russia's digital space, citing security and national control. These measures include banning popular social media and messaging apps while promoting state-controlled alternatives, impacting daily life and suppressing protests for internet freedom. The shutdowns have caused significant economic disruption, costing local businesses millions daily and threatening small and medium-sized enterprises with bankruptcy. This aggressive digital control strategy reflects the regime's growing anxieties and will likely test the public's tolerance and potential for dissent.
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138.
The Trump administration has failed to deploy a humanitarian strategy for Middle East conflicts despite $11 billion in military spending and $5.4 billion in Congressional humanitarian funding available—a policy choice, not a capacity constraint. With over 1 million displaced in Lebanon and 3.2 million in Iran (potentially the largest refugee crisis of the 21st century), the humanitarian void is creating cascading global crises including food insecurity and disrupted supply chains. The author argues that unaddressed humanitarian crises historically breed extremism, mass migration, and state collapse—requiring far costlier future interventions—while humanitarian investment offers superior long-term security returns. The administration previously demonstrated rapid humanitarian response in Beirut (2020) and Jamaica (2025), proving capability. The article recommends programming available funds, establishing sanctions carve-outs for aid, creating a UN-coordinated operation center, and convening a humanitarian pledging conference.
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139.Justice for Ukraine: Supporting survivors of war crimes and building international solidarity (Chatham House)
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to over 200,000 documented atrocities, presenting a significant challenge to delivering justice. The article advocates for Ukraine to adopt a transitional justice framework that combines prosecutions, truth-seeking, reparations, and institutional reform to manage the vast scale of war crimes. This approach aims to ensure meaningful, victim-centered justice without overwhelming the legal system and addresses complex issues such as enforcing verdicts against Russian leaders and engaging international partners. A robust transitional justice policy is seen as vital for building international solidarity and navigating the conflict's aftermath.
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140.
Dr. Gorka presents the Trump administration's counterterrorism strategy, positioning Iran as the principal global sponsor of terrorist networks funding both Shia and Sunni extremist groups, and arguing that Operation Epic Fury has substantially degraded Tehran's operational capability while ideological intent persists. The strategy prioritizes information operations (IO) as foundational counterterrorism, emphasizing the need to expose regime hypocrisy and terrorist ineffectiveness to erode support, paired with emphasis on state sovereignty as essential for long-term security. Key initiatives include rebuilding counterterrorism partnerships in Iraq and Syria post-operation, strengthening capacity in the Sahel and Lake Chad regions, and conducting sustained messaging campaigns to undermine terrorist recruitment and ideology.
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141.
African countries have largely maintained diplomatic silence and refused to align with Iran in the ongoing Iran war, disappointing Tehran's decades-long effort to build anti-Western alliances across the continent. Their cautious neutral stance reflects pragmatic calculations: protecting existing partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Gulf states; avoiding disruptions to critical oil and fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz; and preserving valuable bilateral development agreements. Iran's attempt to position itself as a theocratic alternative to Western values and leverage Shiite religious networks has largely backfired, with even traditional allies like South Africa offering only muted criticism. As Iran emerges weakened from the conflict, its capacity to pursue military, diplomatic, and religious objectives in Africa will diminish, ceding regional influence to Gulf states and the United States.
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142.
The ongoing Iran war is causing severe disruptions in global energy markets, prompting governments and companies worldwide to implement emergency policies. Nations like the Philippines have declared energy emergencies, while Slovenia and Sri Lanka have introduced fuel rationing, and major corporations are facing substantial cost increases and supply chain issues. These widespread economic impacts, including falling stock markets and projected inflation, are driving international diplomatic efforts, such as proposals for summits and peace plans, to stabilize the volatile situation.
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143.
Sudan's volunteer-led Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) were awarded the Chatham House Prize 2025 for their crucial humanitarian efforts amidst the ongoing conflict. This grassroots network, operating since April 2023, provides essential aid, medical support, education, and addresses gender-based violence to over thirty-three million displaced people across Sudan, often in areas inaccessible to international organizations. The recognition underscores the vital role of local initiatives in humanitarian crises, calling for sustained international support to protect civic spaces and empower Sudanese efforts for future rebuilding and transformation.
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144.
The film "Facing War" provides an exclusive, inside look at NATO's high-stakes diplomacy during a critical period, showcasing the alliance's internal decision-making spaces. It documents tense negotiations with world leaders such as US President Joe Biden, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, focusing on support for Ukraine. The documentary highlights the challenges of balancing aid to Ukraine with concerns about escalating the conflict, reflecting the fragile unity and geopolitical friction within the alliance.
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145.
President Trump initially threatened to "obliterate" Iranian energy sites but later announced a five-day pause, ostensibly due to diplomatic conversations that Iran subsequently denied. This occurs amidst escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including Israeli airstrikes in Tehran and significant cross-border attacks between Iran and Israel over the weekend, resulting in numerous casualties. Unofficial reports indicated initial peace talks were exploring conditions such as a halt to Iran's missile program and an end to military offensives. The complex situation highlights persistent diplomatic and military tensions in the region, with broader implications for global energy prices and international stability.
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146.
After three weeks, the air campaign in the Iran War shows a sustained U.S. strike tempo, adapted to use less expensive munitions, while Iranian drone and missile launches have significantly declined but persist, notably targeting Gulf states' energy facilities. Gulf allies report high interception rates of 80-90%, but their interceptor inventories are reportedly dwindling. The ongoing conflict signals continued regional instability, raising critical questions about Iran's remaining military capabilities and the potential for a U.S. military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
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147.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran provides Russia with short-term advantages, such as increased oil revenues due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the diversion of Western military aid from Ukraine, aiding its ongoing offensive. However, Russian elites are growing apprehensive, noting Russia's diminished global influence, exclusion from Middle East diplomacy, and the long-term strategic and economic drain of the Ukraine conflict. While U.S.-Russia relations have soured and Ukraine peace talks are paused, Putin's sustained belief in potential collaboration with the Trump administration currently prevents a more significant bilateral breakdown.
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148.
The ongoing Iran War is significantly impacting the global economy, with the World Trade Organization forecasting a 0.3 percent reduction in global GDP growth for 2026 if energy prices remain high. Regions like Europe and Gulf states, including Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are projected to face substantial economic contractions due to prolonged conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure, such as the recent Iranian strike on a Qatari gas facility. Policy responses include the US considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and approving significant arms sales to Middle Eastern allies. Diplomatic and strategic shifts are also evident in deals like Belarus's prisoner release tied to fertilizer exports and the UK's foreign aid cuts to boost military spending.
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149.
The analysis argues that the transatlantic relationship is strained by US unilateralism, challenging Europe's traditional posture of submission. Key evidence suggests that Europe's history of bending the knee to Washington has been detrimental, while recent acts of collective self-assertion—such as rejecting US pressure over Greenland or denying base access during the Iran crisis—have proven more effective. For policy, the findings imply that Europe must abandon reactive submission and instead prioritize internal cohesion, energy transition, and unified policy stances. This strategic shift is necessary for Europe to build genuine leverage and reduce its structural dependence on US protection.
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150.
Since 2020, Russia has aggressively expanded its geopolitical footprint in the Sahel, seizing the strategic initiative from traditional Western powers like France and the U.S. Moscow has capitalized on deep regional instability and popular discontent by supporting successive coups in nations including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This strategy allows Russia to project power and signal a degree of operational freedom despite international isolation following the Ukraine conflict. For policymakers, this indicates that Russia is utilizing the Sahel as a key theater to challenge Western influence and reshape regional security dynamics.
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151.
F. Gregory Gause III argues that Saudi Crown Prince MBS has shifted from an aggressive, interventionist foreign policy to one emphasizing regional stability after Iran's 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities and the lack of U.S. response. Saudi Arabia now prioritizes economic modernization (Vision 2030), opposes U.S. military action against Iran for fear of retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure, and has raised the cost of Israeli normalization by demanding a pathway to Palestinian statehood. The analysis highlights a growing Saudi-Emirati divergence over whether to back central governments or non-state actors, while Riyadh continues to view Washington—not Beijing—as its primary security and technology partner, particularly in AI and defense.
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152.
UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash details the impact of Iran's missile and drone campaign against Gulf states, revealing that the UAE has been struck by over 2,000 projectiles targeting civilian infrastructure rather than the U.S. military facilities Iran claims. Gargash argues Iran's strategy is counterproductive, as it has shattered trust with traditional Gulf mediators like Oman and Qatar, exposed the reality of Iran's threat capabilities, and will paradoxically strengthen Israel's role and the U.S. defense relationship in the Gulf for decades. He calls for any postwar settlement to include enforceable guarantees against both Iran's nuclear program and its missile and drone arsenal, while signaling UAE willingness to join an international coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
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153.
Six CFR fellows assess the geoeconomic fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, arguing that disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, with Brent crude surging above $100/barrel and roughly 10 million barrels per day taken off the market. The cascading effects extend well beyond energy: global fertilizer exports, food security for import-dependent Gulf states, and commercial data center infrastructure (including Amazon facilities in the UAE) have all been hit, while central banks face stagflationary pressures that complicate monetary policy. The analysis concludes that Washington has no easy options—strategic reserve releases and eased Russia sanctions have proven insufficient—leaving policymakers to choose between difficult concessions to Tehran or further military escalation, while also reconsidering the wisdom of concentrating critical AI infrastructure in volatile regions.
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154.
A CFR expert panel analyzes the geoeconomic fallout from the Iran war, which has produced what the IEA calls the largest oil supply disruption in history, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a trickle and crude prices surging past $100/barrel. Panelists argue the Trump administration underestimated Iran's willingness to escalate by closing the strait after its leadership was targeted, and that neither strategic petroleum reserve releases nor eased Russia sanctions have meaningfully stabilized markets, with potential GDP contractions of up to 14% in Qatar/Kuwait and recessionary risks for the U.S. if the crisis persists. The disruption is reshaping Gulf security dynamics—driving GCC states toward defense diversification away from sole U.S. reliance—while delivering a financial windfall to Russia, validating China's energy stockpiling strategy, and threatening Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE hub ambitions, with no assured resolution short of Iran agreeing to a ceasefire.
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155.
This CFR podcast examines how the war in Ukraine is sustained by competing alliance networks: NATO and European allies backing Ukraine, while Russia draws critical support from China (economic and technological), Iran (drones), and North Korea (troops and munitions). The analysis highlights that neither coalition is a traditional bloc alliance—China carefully avoids direct weapons transfers to protect its economy and reputation, while the U.S. under Trump has shifted from alliance leader to self-styled neutral mediator with a pro-Russia lean, forcing Europeans to dramatically increase their own defense commitments. The episode argues that the global order is moving toward more transactional, fragile partnerships rather than values-based alliances, creating a less stable and more unpredictable security environment than even the Cold War's rigid bipolarity.
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156.
Following the Supreme Court's rejection of IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. is pivoting to Section 122 and 301 authorities to maintain a high-tariff regime that is increasingly used for non-trade geopolitical leverage. Experts suggest that while the administration has secured several asymmetric bilateral deals, this unilateralist approach risks fragmenting global trade and isolating the U.S. from the allies needed to counter China's systemic industrial overcapacity. The panel highlights that China's growing trade surplus and manufacturing dominance remain unresolved by current protectionist measures or the existing WTO framework. Consequently, U.S. strategy may be drifting toward a 'Fortress America' posture that increases domestic costs while ceding influence over future global trade rules and market opportunities.
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157.
Bob Rae asserts that Canada is undergoing a profound strategic pivot, moving away from traditional reliance on the United States in response to a 'rupture' in the rules-based international order. This shift is evidenced by Canada’s commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and the launch of its first-ever Defence Industrial Strategy to protect manufacturing and scientific capacity. The primary implication is that Canada will increasingly prioritize multilateral partnerships with Europe and the Asia-Pacific to safeguard its sovereignty, particularly regarding Arctic security and Ukraine, amidst growing US isolationism and volatility.
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158.
This CFR panel examines the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran launched in late February 2026, exploring how decades of Iranian nuclear ambition, proxy warfare, and the regime's brutal suppression of domestic protests converged to trigger the strikes. Panelists note that Iran's selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader signals hardline continuity rather than reform, while the opposition remains fragmented and outgunned by the IRGC. The war has exposed Iran's lack of reliable great-power allies, as neither Russia nor China intervened meaningfully, and has severely degraded Iranian military and proxy capabilities including Hezbollah. However, experts warn that the Trump administration lacked adequate planning for day-after scenarios, civilian evacuations, and energy market disruption, and that a weakened but surviving regime could become more repressive domestically while periodically requiring future military action to prevent rearmament.
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159.
Fifteen years after the Fukushima disaster, Japan is reintegrating nuclear power into its energy mix to bolster energy security and meet decarbonization targets. The shift, codified in the 2025 Strategic Energy Plan, aims to reduce the country’s precarious over-reliance on imported natural gas, which exposed Japan to significant geopolitical risks following conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. While supported by extensive safety reforms and the strategic need to compete with China’s nuclear expansion, the policy must still navigate persistent public skepticism. Success will require a flexible approach that balances nuclear restarts with diversified energy sourcing to ensure long-term stability.
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160.
This CFR roundtable examines the global energy crisis triggered by Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens to remove roughly 20 million barrels per day—about 20% of global petroleum consumption—dwarfing the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo's 7% disruption. Despite the largest-ever coordinated IEA reserve release of 400 million barrels, aging SPR infrastructure limits actual throughput to a fraction of the shortfall, and alternative pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only partially compensate. The discussion highlights that oil prices remain lower than expected only because markets anticipate a quick resolution, while Russia and Iran are paradoxically profiting from the crisis, and China's long-term electrification strategy is being validated as a model of energy security planning.
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161.
President Trump is calling for an international coalition, including NATO allies and Asian partners, to militarily secure the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict with Iran enters its third week. The push follows unsuccessful U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island and subsequent Iranian retaliatory attacks on Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, which have collectively sparked a global energy crisis. By linking ally participation to the future of NATO, the administration is signaling a high-stakes strategy to internationalize the military burden while allies remain cautious about further escalation.
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162.
The article argues that a robust security alliance between Poland and Germany is essential for European defense amidst rising Russian aggression and declining US reliability. This partnership is currently stifled by historical grievances, Polish domestic political infighting, and German strategic reluctance regarding defense investment and historical atonement. To overcome these barriers, the two nations are pursuing 'military diplomacy' through a bilateral defense agreement and multilateral security formats to modernize infrastructure and resupply national arsenals. Failure to solidify this axis risks leaving Europe vulnerable if Polish leadership continues to prioritize a potentially unreliable US partnership over regional integration.
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163.
The 2026 NPT review conference faces significant obstacles following the expiration of the New START treaty and a shift in US nuclear policy toward more aggressive deterrence and less emphasis on denuclearization. Experts caution that allegations of secret nuclear tests and the potential resumption of global testing threaten to unleash a new arms race, undermining decades of non-proliferation efforts. As confidence in traditional US security guarantees and NATO’s Article V wanes, European allies are increasingly compelled to seek alternative collective defense and deterrence arrangements.
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164.
Israel's targeted killing of top Iranian security and military officials Ali Larijani and Gholam Reza Soleimani marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, potentially destabilizing Iran's command structure. This military action occurs as the United States faces increasing isolation from NATO allies, who have rejected calls to join a naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid direct involvement in the war. Consequently, while Israel and the U.S. have successfully degraded certain Iranian capabilities, the strategy’s success hinges on whether these leadership losses will trigger a popular uprising or simply lead to a bureaucratic reorganization within a resilient Iranian cadre.
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165.
National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned in protest against the war in Iran, asserting that the conflict lacks an imminent threat justification and fails to serve American interests. This internal rupture coincides with escalating Israeli military operations against Iranian leadership and growing friction between the U.S. and NATO allies over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict is triggering global repercussions, including an energy crisis that has forced nations like Sri Lanka to implement austerity measures. These developments suggest a deepening isolation of U.S. foreign policy and a heightening risk of a broader, uncoordinated regional war with significant economic fallout.
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166.
The article argues that the convergence of low-cost drone technology and precision guidance has ushered in an era of 'precise mass' warfare, first demonstrated in Ukraine and now fully manifest in the U.S.-Iran conflict surrounding Operation Epic Fury. The authors highlight a critical cost-exchange imbalance: defending against $20,000-$50,000 Shahed-136 drones requires interceptors costing $125,000 to $4 million each, rapidly depleting limited air defense stockpiles across the Gulf states and potentially drawing down Indo-Pacific reserves needed to deter China. The implications are stark—the U.S. must dramatically increase investment in attritable, scalable systems like LUCAS beyond the current 0.5% of defense spending, as precise mass capabilities are becoming a permanent feature of modern warfare that empowers both great powers and lesser states alike.
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167.
The article argues that despite the United States' shift toward aggressive protectionism and abandonment of multilateral leadership, the remaining 165 WTO members can and should continue global trade liberalization independently. By adopting a WTO-based plurilateral approach and moving away from strict consensus decision-making, these nations can address 21st-century challenges like digital trade while bypassing American commercial recalcitrance. Evidence suggests that global supply chains are already reconfiguring through 'trade deflection' and new non-US agreements, proving that international trade can persist without the U.S. at its center. Ultimately, collective action within the WTO framework is necessary to prevent global economic fragmentation and to maintain the rule-based system until the U.S. returns to a cooperative role.
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168.
A U.S. military investigation reveals that outdated targeting data led to a Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, resulting in at least 175 civilian deaths at the onset of the war. This tragedy highlights the impact of a 90 percent reduction in specialized Pentagon teams dedicated to minimizing civilian casualties during military operations. The mounting human toll and associated global energy disruptions are shifting the conflict toward a prolonged struggle of political endurance, while complicating U.S. diplomatic relations with key allies like Spain.
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169.
Brookings has launched an interactive trade tracker to monitor significant shifts in U.S. trade flows and costs following a sharp increase in tariffs beginning in January 2025. The tool reveals how businesses proactively react to trade policy, evidenced by a massive surge in metal imports ahead of Section 232 implementation and heightened price volatility among major trading partners. These findings underscore the profound economic impact of aggressive trade enforcement and subsequent legal challenges, such as the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain emergency tariff actions.
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170.
This Brookings event examines how Ukraine has transformed from a peripheral 'blank spot' on Europe's mental map into a central pillar of European security, driven by its resistance to Russia's full-scale invasion. Historian Karl Schlögel argues that Ukraine's battlefield resilience and civil defense innovations have earned it a place in the European family, with countries like Germany now looking to Kyiv for strategic lessons. The discussion highlights that while Europe increasingly recognizes Ukraine's importance to its own defense architecture, Ukraine's path toward deeper institutional integration remains fraught with political and structural challenges, particularly amid a shifting transatlantic relationship.
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171.
Iran’s new leadership has committed to continuing the conflict, emphasizing ongoing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and further retaliation against U.S.-Israeli strikes. This defiant stance is met with a similar pledge from Washington to advance military operations, indicating that both sides are preparing for an escalation rather than a diplomatic resolution. The ongoing hostilities have already caused significant global energy shocks, forcing the U.S. to adjust sanctions on other oil producers like Russia to stabilize markets. For regional strategy, these developments suggest a protracted war with high risks of expanded conflict and long-term economic disruption.
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172.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that a more flexible and differentiated model of European integration is essential for the continent to remain resilient and competitive amid rising geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes the need for pragmatic mechanisms that allow member states to respond rapidly to challenges in defense, energy, and technology without losing their shared sense of purpose. Ultimately, this approach is presented as a way to strengthen the European Union's collective ability to protect its interests and values in an era of shifting global alliances.
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173.
The 2026 Eurovision Song Contest marks a strategic shift toward transparency as organizers abandon noise-canceling technology previously used to muffle audience booing and political dissent. Driven by the Austrian broadcaster's commitment to realism, this change highlights the contest's deep fragmentation, exemplified by the withdrawal of five nations in protest of Israel's participation. The article argues that Eurovision has evolved into a primary arena where public sentiment mirrors the geopolitical tensions found in formal diplomatic institutions like the UN. For strategists, this evolution illustrates how cultural platforms are increasingly serving as visible barometers for regional polarization and the breakdown of enforced internationalism.
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174.How the Russian Orthodox Church is recruiting for the Ukraine war – and alienating believers (Chatham House)
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has transitioned into a key recruitment and ideological tool for the Russian state, framing the invasion of Ukraine as a 'holy mission' to justify the conflict. The church utilizes military chaplains as front-line enforcers to prevent desertion while weaponizing 'traditional values' narratives to influence Western conservatives and undermine military aid to Ukraine. This aggressive alignment with the Kremlin is alienating domestic believers and leading to a decline in religious participation within Russia. Consequently, policymakers must recognize the ROC's role as a sophisticated soft-power instrument designed to exploit cultural divisions in the West.
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175.
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a significant maritime confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supplies and necessitating a potential release of strategic energy reserves. Evidence of this expansion includes the U.S. destruction of Iranian mine-laying vessels and reports of attacks on commercial shipping, alongside a staggering initial war cost of $5.6 billion for Washington within the first two days. Consequently, the war is forcing a strategic pivot of U.S. missile defense assets from East Asia to the Middle East, while highlighting vulnerabilities in global interceptor supplies for other theaters like Ukraine.
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176.
Europe faces a critical challenge from a second wave of nationalist populism that seeks to hollow out EU integration from within rather than pursuing an exit strategy. Supported by geopolitical shifts in Russia and the US, these far-right movements have normalized their agendas—particularly regarding migration and climate—within mainstream parties and are increasingly influencing EU-level legislation through deregulatory 'omnibus' packages. The upcoming 2026 elections, starting with Hungary, will determine if Europe can maintain the unity necessary to resist becoming 'easy prey' for foreign spheres of influence or if it will fracture into weakened, competing nationalist states.
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177.
This podcast episode analyzes the strategic shift in U.S. policy following President Trump's decision to launch a large-scale military campaign against Iran that resulted in the death of the Supreme Leader. Dalia Dassa Kaye argues that while the administration sends mixed messages, the targeting of top leadership signals an uncoordinated attempt at regime change rather than a limited strike on nuclear facilities. She warns that the lack of a viable political alternative or a clear 'day after' plan risks plunging the region into a 'Libya-style' chaotic vacuum characterized by bloody internal conflict and massive refugee flows. Furthermore, the conflict strains relations with Gulf partners who fear the fallout and provides geopolitical openings for China and Russia to exploit American military overextension.
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178.
The 2025 Chatham House Prize has been awarded to Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) for their vital humanitarian work during the country's ongoing civil war between the SAF and RSF. Operating in areas often inaccessible to international organizations, these grassroots networks provide essential food, water, and medical supplies while maintaining critical infrastructure under significant risk. This recognition underscores the indispensable role of localized, impartial mutual aid groups in addressing one of the world's largest displacement and humanitarian crises.
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179.
The United States must leverage international partnerships and multilateral frameworks to break China’s dominant 'chokehold' on critical mineral supply chains essential for defense and high-tech industries. While previous unilateral approaches hindered progress, emerging 2026 initiatives like 'Project Vault' and the 'Forge' forum signal a strategic shift toward a collaborative 'Metals NATO' model. To successfully compete with China’s predatory pricing, U.S. policy must prioritize early-stage project funding and high environmental and labor standards to attract producing nations. These coordinated efforts are vital for securing the resilient supply chains required for national security and the global energy transition.
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180.
The Trump administration is executing a "maximum pressure" campaign against Cuba by choking off oil imports through naval interdictions and tariff threats against suppliers like Mexico, following the fall of the Maduro regime in Venezuela. This strategy has crippled Cuba’s power grid and essential services, pushing the island toward a potential "crash landing" as domestic legitimacy reaches an all-time low. While reports of back-channel talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Castro family suggest a possible opening for a managed transition, the lack of a clear regime successor and strict U.S. legislative hurdles complicate a diplomatic exit. The situation represents a high-stakes gamble that risks a humanitarian catastrophe to force the end of communist rule.
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181.Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK (Chatham House)
Finnish President Alexander Stubb contends that the EU and UK must abandon the 'punishment' mindset following Brexit to establish a pragmatic, flexible partnership. Citing shared values and the geopolitical pressure of an aggressive Russia, he advocates for closer ties in security, technology, and potential reintegration into the customs union or internal market. Stubb argues that European resilience depends on the UK’s voice in critical areas such as competition reform and climate change. This suggests a strategic shift toward 'flexible integration' to ensure regional stability and economic strength in a changing global order.
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182.
Charles Kupchan argues that the Trump administration should pursue a strategy of neutralizing Iran's regime rather than attempting to topple it, advocating for an 'Islamic Republic 2.0' with moderate leadership and strict constraints on its nuclear, missile, and proxy capabilities. He draws on the disastrous outcomes of U.S.-led regime change in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria to warn that dismantling the Islamic Republic would likely produce state fracture, civil war, and regional instability rather than democracy. The article notes that Iran's deeply embedded security apparatus—over one million troops plus paramilitary forces—makes regime collapse unlikely through airpower alone, while arming ethnic minorities risks igniting a multi-country civil war. Kupchan recommends focusing military strikes on degrading Iran's military capability while maintaining diplomatic channels to pragmatic Iranian elites, arguing that a defanged regime, even if imperfect, is far preferable to the chaos of state collapse.
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183.AI wars: Anthropic battles the Pentagon as China plans ahead. Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
This Chatham House podcast discusses the deepening rift between the Pentagon and AI provider Anthropic over the company's ethical restrictions on lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The dispute, which led to the firm being labeled a 'supply chain risk,' reveals a significant gap in global AI governance and the lack of established rules for AI in modern warfare. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its 'AI Plus' initiative to integrate artificial intelligence across its entire economic and military infrastructure. These developments highlight a critical need for policy frameworks that balance national security requirements with technological ethics and international competition.
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184.Kazakhstan referendum: The new constitution demonstrates a diminishing interest in Western values (Chatham House)
Kazakhstan’s comprehensive constitutional overhaul signals a strategic departure from Western liberal models in favor of a state-led, institutionalized authoritarian system similar to China’s. The amendments consolidate President Tokayev’s power and assert domestic law supremacy over international treaties, potentially undermining legal protections for foreign investors in the extractive sectors. While the reforms may strengthen national sovereignty against Russian influence, they also provide the state with greater leverage to restrict civil liberties and manage long-term political succession.
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185.
Max Boot argues that Operation Epic Fury suffers from a critical "strategy gap," where tactical military successes—such as precision strikes on Iranian leadership—fail to achieve clear political objectives or a viable exit strategy. While the U.S. has degraded Iranian infrastructure, Tehran has successfully retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz and depleting American munitions stocks at an unsustainable rate. This rapid consumption of high-tech interceptors like Patriot missiles creates significant strategic vulnerabilities in other theaters, particularly regarding China and North Korea. Ultimately, the conflict underscores the limits of U.S. military power in translating tactical dominance into long-term political or economic stability.
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186.Term Member and Young Professionals Screening and Discussion of "Jean Monnet, Europe’s Adventurer" (CFR)
This discussion of Jean Monnet’s legacy argues that his 'functionalist' method of building shared sovereignty through technical cooperation remains essential for revitalizing European integration and transatlantic stability. Panelists identified modern catalysts for unity, such as digital sovereignty and AI, while advocating for a 'pragmatic federalism' where smaller coalitions move forward on defense and diplomacy to bypass current EU institutional gridlock. The findings emphasize that the European project must return to Monnet's principle of transforming specific points of friction into common goods to address contemporary geopolitical threats and internal fragmentation.
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187.
The article argues that the Iran conflict's disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping poses a severe threat not only to energy markets but to global food security and water supply. Gulf states are nearly entirely import-dependent for staple grains, and the region accounts for roughly one-quarter of global fertilizer production transiting the strait—meaning price spikes and supply shortages will cascade worldwide, particularly in vulnerable nations already facing hunger crises. Iranian strikes on desalination infrastructure further endanger water access for over 100 million people in the Gulf. Drawing parallels to the Ukraine war's lasting fertilizer market disruption, which pushed 27 million more people into poverty, the author warns that the systematic weaponization of food, water, and fertilizer could convert a regional military conflict into a global humanitarian catastrophe, especially as rising defense spending crowds out development aid.
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188.
The article emphasizes that Belarus's strategic location makes it a critical factor in European security, arguing that transitioning the country from a Russian ally to a European asset would stabilize the region. It points to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as evidence of how Russia exploits Belarusian territory to extend its military reach and threaten neighboring NATO members. While Lukashenka is currently tethered to Moscow for economic survival, his flexible foreign policy ideology suggests potential for shift if the West provides viable alternatives. Strategically, decoupling Belarus from the Kremlin's orbit would dismantle a major platform for Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.
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189.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the primary focus is shifting from active combat to the profound post-war challenges of societal recovery. The article argues that when the war concludes, both Ukraine and Russia will face the massive undertaking of reintegrating thousands of veterans. This process requires significant state resources to provide long-term physical, mental, and financial support to service members. Consequently, both Kyiv and Moscow must prioritize comprehensive policy planning and allocate substantial financial capital to manage these lasting societal wounds, ensuring stability and preventing internal crises.
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190.
Autonomous warfare is emerging not through visible robotic armies, but through the quiet, rapid deployment of machine-executed missions, exemplified by current conflicts in eastern Ukraine and the Middle East. The core shift involves systems operating at speeds unmatched by human operators, increasingly coordinating as networked, platoon-sized units without continuous human intervention. This trend necessitates a fundamental doctrinal pivot, as military forces must adapt to command structures that assume machine-to-machine coordination. Failure to rapidly integrate these autonomous capabilities risks strategic disadvantage for any force reliant on traditional, human-centric command and control.
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191.
The analysis concludes that even if the Iranian regime survives the current conflict greatly weakened, it will remain a significant and dangerous regional threat. This persistence is due to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which holds the true coercive power, ensuring that the regime will prioritize maintaining the status quo over radical change. The leadership succession, whether through Mojtaba Khamenei or a successor, will be driven by vengeance and resistance, guaranteeing continued instability and potential for terrorism. Strategically, this suggests that external military intervention is unlikely to achieve a swift regime collapse, necessitating a long-term strategy focused on managing persistent regional volatility.
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192.
The escalating military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran introduces significant geopolitical variables that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that a protracted US entanglement in the Middle East risks diverting critical resources and diplomatic focus away from Kyiv, potentially fracturing Western unity. Conversely, while regional instability might weaken Russia's strategic partnership with Iran, surging oil prices could provide Moscow with a vital financial cushion to sustain its offensive despite international sanctions.
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193.
Global military AI adoption is rapidly outstripping international efforts to establish governance, as evidenced by a significant decline in endorsements at the recent REAIM summit. With the United States and China increasingly detached from multilateral dialogues, middle powers now face the critical choice of leading the development of 'rules of the road' or allowing the technology to evolve without international guardrails. The divergence between diplomatic negotiations and the real-world deployment of AI in ongoing conflicts risks making future policy efforts irrelevant to technical and battlefield realities.
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194.
This CFR report outlines the catastrophic collapse of U.S.-Iran relations, culminating in a massive joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign in February 2026. Following failed nuclear talks and the failure of 'maximum pressure' sanctions, the conflict escalated to direct strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted Iran's nuclear and naval assets. These events have triggered immediate regional retaliation, including Iranian strikes on U.S. Gulf bases and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, presenting a severe threat to global energy stability and risking a broader regional war.
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195.
European leaders have responded in a fragmented manner to the uncoordinated U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, revealing deep internal divisions regarding the use of force and international law. While countries like Poland and Germany offer political or conditional support, France and Southern European nations have voiced legal criticisms, highlighting a lack of unified strategic weight. The conflict underscores Europe's continued dependence on the United States even as it pursues greater autonomy through increased defense spending and independent financial support for Ukraine. Ultimately, the war in the Middle East threatens to distract Washington from the European theater and disrupt energy markets, further straining the transatlantic relationship.
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196.
Brookings experts argue that the U.S.-Israeli decapitation strike against Iran’s leadership is unlikely to trigger an immediate regime collapse, risking instead a protracted conflict and regional instability. The analysis highlights the resilience of the Islamic Republic's institutional networks and its escalatory survival strategy, which targets neighboring energy infrastructure to force diplomatic concessions. Policymakers are warned that without a coherent 'day after' plan or the integration of civilian statecraft, the intervention could lead to a 'lose-lose' scenario of state fragmentation and emboldened global adversaries.
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197.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran and the subsequent death of Supreme Leader Khamenei have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a volatile maritime flashpoint, severely threatening global energy markets. In response to Iranian retaliation and threats of a blockade, vessel traffic through the waterway has dropped by 70%, causing Brent crude and natural gas prices to surge. While U.S. military operations have significantly degraded Iran's formal naval capacity, the continued use of asymmetric tactics like drone strikes and mine-laying forces expensive shipping diversions. This escalation highlights the fragility of regional maritime security and the immediate risk of a broader conflict disrupting essential global trade routes.
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198.
The military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has severely disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening twenty percent of global oil and gas supplies and disproportionately impacting Asian economies. While nations like Japan are buffered by significant strategic reserves, others like India face immediate risks due to limited storage and recent shifts in import patterns. Ultimately, these supply shocks are expected to drive a temporary resurgence in coal usage for affordability while simultaneously accelerating long-term strategic investments in nuclear and renewable energy to ensure national security and reduce reliance on volatile Middle Eastern transit routes.
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199.
Brookings experts argue that the Trump administration’s military campaign against Iran lacks a coherent long-term strategy and clear objectives, shifting from nuclear containment to regime change without adequate planning for the resulting power vacuum. While conventional strikes were initially successful, the U.S. remains vulnerable to asymmetric threats like drones and faces massive logistical challenges in evacuating hundreds of thousands of citizens from the region. Analysts emphasize the need for an immediate diplomatic 'off-ramp' and a realistic plan for dealing with a weakened but still-entrenched Iranian regime to avoid prolonged regional instability.
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200.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a major, destabilizing escalation, pushing the region toward a protracted conflagration. Experts argue that Iran's retaliatory strikes were a calculated, existential move, demonstrating a willingness to engage in a long conflict by targeting soft underbellies, such as Gulf neighbors and American assets. This strategy allows Iran to gamble that it can outlast the current U.S. political administration. For policy, the primary implication is managing the risk of regional spillover, mitigating domestic economic fallout, and navigating the highly decentralized and politically charged nature of U.S. decision-making regarding the conflict.
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201.
Ambassador Robert Blackwill proposes a "resolute global leadership" grand strategy that fuses superior military primacy with a muscular revitalization of the rules-based international order. He argues that recent liberal internationalism proved too passive against adversaries like China and Russia, while the transactional "Trumpism" approach dangerously abandons the alliances and moral frameworks essential to U.S. security. To restore influence, the report advocates for a significant increase in the defense budget, winning the AI technology race, and pivoting military resources to Asia to deter Chinese hegemony.
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202.
European leaders at the 2026 CFR symposium characterized the war in Ukraine as a generational conflict that has fundamentally transformed Russia into a direct, long-term threat to the continent. To maintain support amidst uncertain U.S. funding, European nations are aggressively increasing defense spending and industrial capacity while fostering Ukraine’s own domestic military-industrial base. Strategic priorities have shifted toward 'strategic autonomy' within NATO, emphasizing robust security guarantees and the deep integration of Ukraine into Western institutions to ensure a durable peace. The panel concluded that European security now depends on transitioning from security consumption to active partnership through sustained military and economic commitment.
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203.
Marking the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion, this analysis highlights that Russia’s military efforts have devolved into a slow-moving war of attrition characterized by unprecedented casualties (1.2 million) and a stagnating economy. Despite minimal territorial gains, Russia has intensified its drone campaign, while Ukraine faces a staggering $588 billion reconstruction challenge and a vulnerable centralized energy grid. Crucially, the financial burden of military support is shifting from the U.S. to Europe, requiring new procurement mechanisms like the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) to sustain Ukraine’s defense.
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204.Beyond Conventional Aid: Institutionalizing Public-Private Partnership in Ukraine’s Humanitarian Response (CFR)
The report argues that Ukraine's humanitarian response faces a critical gap due to massive international funding cuts and the inherent bureaucratic slowness of the United Nations system. It highlights that while the UN excels at resource mobilization, it lacks the flexibility of local NGOs or the now-defunct USAID Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) to respond quickly to shifting frontline needs. To bridge this gap, the author proposes a new public-private partnership mechanism that institutionalizes OTI’s agile grant model while integrating specialized private-sector capabilities. This strategic pivot is deemed essential for maintaining aid effectiveness as the conflict evolves and eventually transitions toward long-term reconstruction.
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205.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, a panel of CFR experts argues that Europe must transition from emergency response to a long-term, self-reliant security and recovery architecture. The recommendations emphasize integrating Ukraine’s innovative defense industrial base into European supply chains and preparing for overt Russian provocations that may require European action independent of U.S. support. Strategically, this necessitates balancing robust military deterrence with diplomatic dialogue and modernizing humanitarian aid through agile public-private partnerships to ensure regional stability during and after the conflict.
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206.
Ukraine’s trajectory from 1991 to 2026 demonstrates a persistent struggle for independence defined by Russian military aggression and a shifting international security architecture. Milestones such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 2022 invasion highlight the failure of early security guarantees, leading to a war of attrition with combined casualties reaching an estimated 1.8 million by early 2026. Recent developments indicate a pivot toward bilateral U.S.-Russia peace summits that often exclude Ukrainian representation, creating a strategic tension between continued Western military support and great-power diplomacy. Ultimately, the ongoing targeting of energy infrastructure and deadlocked negotiations suggest that Ukraine's sovereignty remains precarious despite sustained G7 and NATO commitments.
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207.
The symposium concludes that while current AI-driven investment mirrors the speculative mania of 1929, the primary systemic risk stems from a combination of high sovereign debt and potential policy errors rather than market volatility alone. Panelists noted parallels such as the democratization of finance through leverage and a growing gap between massive AI capital expenditures and realized revenues. To avoid a repeat of the Great Depression's domino effect, experts advocate for proactive financial regulation and caution that current high debt levels may limit the effectiveness of traditional crisis intervention strategies.
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208.
CFR analysts argue that Western policymakers must immediately begin planning for a post-settlement Europe, as a ceasefire in Ukraine will not eliminate Russia's long-term security threat but rather shift it toward hybrid warfare and military testing of NATO cohesion. Potential risks include deepening transatlantic friction over sanctions relief and commercial normalization with Moscow, alongside intra-European disputes regarding defense burden-sharing. To mitigate these threats, the report recommends a G7-coordinated Russia strategy, a revitalized 'Harmel-style' NATO blueprint for dual-track deterrence, and the implementation of new Europe-wide risk reduction measures to stabilize the expanded NATO-Russia border.
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209.
The article argues that Ukraine is facing intense pressure to make painful territorial concessions to achieve peace, citing proposals from the Trump administration. Key evidence includes draft peace agreements demanding that Kyiv recognize Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory, reflecting the current military realities on the ground. While President Zelensky resists these terms to protect national integrity, the pressure suggests that future policy decisions for Ukraine must navigate a difficult balance between maintaining sovereignty and achieving a stable, albeit compromised, peace.
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210.
This CFR event centered on the documentary 'Atomic Echoes,' which examines the multi-generational human and health consequences of the 1945 atomic bombings for both Japanese survivors and American 'atomic veterans.' The discussion highlighted how historical classification and the focus on strategic deterrence often obscure the long-term trauma and radiation-related illnesses suffered by individuals on both sides of the conflict. Policy implications include the urgent need to address the erosion of international nuclear guardrails following the expiration of treaties like New START and the rising risk of inadvertent escalation. Panelists emphasized that human-centered narratives are essential for engaging the public in contemporary debates over nuclear modernization and the sole authority of the executive branch in weapon deployment.
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211.
The Supreme Court's ruling in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad tariffs, reasserting that the power to raise revenue resides with Congress under the Taxing Clause. While the decision eliminates the administration’s primary tool for immediate, open-ended duties, Brookings experts note that significant economic uncertainty persists as the executive branch pivots to alternative authorities like Sections 122, 232, and 301. This shift may force more deliberate, evidence-based trade investigations and increase legislative accountability, yet it also threatens to exacerbate federal deficits and complicate relations with key allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
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212.
As the US scales back military support and pressures Ukraine for a quick peace settlement, European nations are stepping up to replace the US as Ukraine's primary donor and security guarantor. Kyiv faces significant domestic pressure against territorial concessions, while European allies are 'Trump-proofing' support through massive financial aid, new procurement mechanisms, and direct investment in Ukraine's defense industrial base. This strategic shift integrates Ukraine into Europe’s security architecture and leverages battlefield innovations, such as low-cost drone production, to sustain Ukraine's long-term defensive capabilities. Consequently, Europe's proactive role is essential for ensuring Ukraine can resist coercive diplomacy and negotiate from a position of strength.
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213.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference exposed significant geopolitical rifts between the United States and its traditional allies over strategic autonomy and the future of international institutions. While European leaders advocated for a more independent Europe and a values-based NATO, U.S. officials emphasized that any restoration of the international system would occur strictly on American terms. This divergence highlights growing friction regarding free trade, climate change, and support for Ukraine, prompting middle powers like Canada to consider new security and economic partnerships. Ultimately, the conference suggests that the vision of a truly independent Europe remains unfulfilled amidst strained transatlantic relations.
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214.
Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine's grain exports remain 35% below pre-war levels due to extensive landmine contamination, destroyed irrigation infrastructure, and acute labor shortages. While Russia initially surged to dominate 22% of the global wheat market by weaponizing appropriated Ukrainian land and infrastructure, its own production is now threatened by adverse weather and a shrinking agricultural workforce. Despite a decline from the 2022 price peak, global food security remains fragile as the war continues to suppress the output of a top producer, limiting the market's ability to absorb future shocks. Strategic recovery for Ukraine necessitates rapid EU integration, modernization of decentralized export logistics, and enhanced maritime defense to secure Black Sea trade routes.
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215.
A 6-3 U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has created significant trade policy volatility, forcing the White House to pivot to Section 122 authorities to maintain levies. Key trading partners including India, Malaysia, and Indonesia are responding by delaying the ratification or implementation of trade deals originally negotiated under the shadow of the now-illegal tariffs. While the decision offers a temporary legal check on executive trade power, the administration's immediate recourse to alternative authorities indicates a sustained period of trade friction and damaged diplomatic leverage in future economic negotiations.
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216.Assessing Xi’s Unprecedented Purges of China’s Military: Key Developments and Potential Implications (CSIS)
Xi Jinping has conducted an unprecedented purge of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), removing over 100 senior officers and nearly decapitating the Central Military Commission to ensure absolute political loyalty. This campaign has created a significant leadership void, with approximately 52% of top positions impacted, severely undermining the PLA's near-term readiness for complex military operations like a Taiwan invasion. While the purges disrupt immediate capabilities, they enable Xi to replace the 'old guard' with a younger, more technically literate generation of 'intelligentized' officers. Long-term implications include a potentially more aggressive military that is ideologically subservient, though at a heightened risk of strategic miscalculation due to the suppression of realistic operational advice.
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217.
The global dominance of U.S. cloud "hyperscalers" is increasingly viewed by international partners as an untenable strategic vulnerability rather than a commercial convenience. Following the weaponization of digital infrastructure against Russia and the Trump administration's perceived erratic foreign policy, nations like India and the Netherlands are accelerating efforts to build sovereign cloud platforms to reduce American dependence. This erosion of trust threatens long-term U.S. digital influence and may cede market share to Chinese competitors as allies prioritize technological autonomy over the cost-efficiency of American platforms.
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218.
Four years after Russia's invasion, the conflict has evolved into a long-term war of attrition that requires a transition from short-term aid to a generational strategy for European security. Despite significant casualties and sanctions, Russia has maintained its war effort through economic ties with China and the Global South, while Ukraine has successfully shifted toward deeper defense industrial cooperation with European partners. Experts suggest that because Russia's maximalist goals remain unchanged, Western policymakers must prepare for a multiyear struggle focused on conventional deterrence and cautious escalation management.
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219.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, the conflict has evolved into a protracted struggle characterized by stalled U.S.-led peace efforts and a strategic shift toward European leadership in military support. High-intensity fighting has resulted in over 465,000 total casualties and a projected $588 billion reconstruction cost, highlighting the severe long-term impact on regional energy infrastructure and economic stability. This transition toward a European-led 'Coalition of the Willing' reflects a pivot in great-power dynamics, suggesting that future conflicts will require sustained societal mobilization and resilient regional alliances.
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220.
President Trump’s State of the Union address prioritized domestic economic issues and immigration while framing his 'peace through strength' doctrine as a success in stabilizing global conflicts. He defended the continuation of tariffs despite judicial setbacks and highlighted the recognition of a new interim government in Venezuela as a major shift in Western Hemisphere policy. These developments suggest an administration focused on transactional diplomacy and protectionist economic measures, emphasizing increased burden-sharing from both international allies and domestic technology firms.
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221.Ukrainian ambassador Valerii Zaluzhnyi says future wars will require ‘technological alliances, not treaty articles’ (Chatham House)
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, argues that future warfare will be defined by autonomous robotic systems, necessitating international 'technological alliances' over traditional treaty frameworks. He emphasizes that no single nation can master all critical military technologies, requiring a collective approach to counter threats and ensure military effectiveness with fewer casualties. To secure victory, Zaluzhnyi advocates for sustained economic pressure to push Russia's economy to a breaking point, highlighting a strategic shift toward technology-sharing and economic attrition as primary tools of modern defense.
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222.Securing Ukraine’s Future in Europe: Ukraine's Defense Industrial Base—An Anchor for Economic Renewal and European Security (CFR)
Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) has transformed from a wartime survival mechanism into a high-tech pillar of European security and a central driver for the country's postwar economic renewal. Driven by a 100-fold increase in defense-tech investment and the production of millions of drones, the sector is pivoting toward industrial-scale exports and coproduction models with European allies. The establishment of Ukrainian defense export centers across Europe signals a shift from aid dependency to strategic partnership, aiming to synchronize regulatory standards and attract private venture capital. Successfully integrating this mil-tech ecosystem will require Western policy support for joint certification and risk-sharing to overcome domestic governance hurdles and maximize Europe's collective deterrence.
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223.
Total U.S. aid to Ukraine reached $188 billion by late 2025, though no new aid legislation has been passed since April 2024, leading European contributions to collectively surpass U.S. support. While the Trump administration continues to deliver previously appropriated funds and facilitates third-party weapon transfers via the PURL program, it has shifted the U.S. stance toward acting as an impartial peace broker. This development underscores a significant pivot in transatlantic burden-sharing and suggests a potential winding down of direct American military assistance.
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224.
This brief warns that Europe must prepare to independently counter potential low-level Russian conventional attacks, such as drone strikes, as Moscow may exploit declining transatlantic trust to undermine NATO's collective defense. The authors argue that Russia's shift from hybrid 'gray zone' tactics to overt provocations could expose a perceived lack of U.S. reliability, particularly as Washington prioritizes securing a Ukraine peace deal. To mitigate this risk, European governments are urged to establish autonomous command structures, develop independent response menus in coordination with Ukraine, and rapidly bolster native air defense and intelligence capabilities.
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225.
President Trump's 2026 State of the Union address prioritized showmanship and base mobilization over addressing the concerns of swing voters or the ongoing affordability crisis. While highlighting positive economic indicators and military successes, the President doubled down on controversial immigration enforcement and tariff policies that face significant public opposition. This strategy suggests a focus on the 2026 midterms through base consolidation rather than outreach to key declining demographics like Hispanics and independents. Consequently, the administration risks further alienating moderate voters who remain primarily concerned with inflation and healthcare costs.
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226.
Veteran journalist Alan Cullison argues that effective foreign policy reporting and analysis must be grounded in human empathy and the study of individual personalities rather than abstract political theory. Drawing on three decades of experience in Russia and Afghanistan, Cullison demonstrates how focusing on the 'fragments' of conflict—such as personal tragedies or investigative leads like liberated al-Qaeda hard drives—provides deeper insights into geopolitical shifts than conventional high-level reporting. For policymakers and analysts, these reflections highlight that robust intelligence depends on maintaining a diverse ecosystem of 'honest interpreters' who possess the linguistic and cultural immersion necessary to navigate chaotic international environments.
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227.
Stephen M. Walt argues that the current American foreign policy constitutes "predatory hegemony," wherein the U.S. uses its overwhelming power to extract short-term concessions and tribute from both allies and rivals in a zero-sum manner. This aggressive shift is presented as a reaction to the perceived failures and excesses of the post-Cold War unipolar order. The reliance on tactics like tariffs and threats, rather than traditional diplomatic restraint, is fundamentally eroding America's long-term global power and stability. Consequently, the article warns that medium powers must cooperate among themselves to defend their interests and seek a more equitable partnership with the United States.
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228.
The war in Ukraine has inaugurated a new era of 'precise mass' warfare, characterized by the deployment of millions of low-cost autonomous drones that are reshaping the battlefield and blurring traditional front lines. Key evidence includes Ukraine's rapid production of millions of drones and the critical role of Silicon Valley firms in providing AI and satellite connectivity, which often bypasses traditional, slower defense procurement cycles. These developments imply that the U.S. and its allies must urgently adapt their defense industrial bases to prioritize both high-volume production and rapid innovation while managing the strategic risks associated with private sector control of essential military technologies.
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229.Assessing the Practical Feasibility of the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse Quantum Algorithm for Calculating Radar Cross Sections (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse (CJS) quantum algorithm for calculating radar cross sections (RCS), finding that while it offers a theoretical exponential speedup over classical methods, it faces massive practical implementation hurdles. Quantitative estimates indicate that the computational resources required for even simple 2D models would currently result in runtimes exceeding the age of the universe on projected hardware, largely due to bottlenecks in Hamiltonian simulation and the overhead of quantum oracles. Consequently, quantum-driven breakthroughs in stealth aircraft design are unlikely in the near term, though policymakers should monitor advancements in unrelated fields like drug discovery that could eventually improve the underlying quantum subroutines.
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230.
This CFR guide outlines the 'America First' transformation of U.S. foreign policy during the first year of President Trump’s second term, emphasizing a shift toward unilateralism and aggressive economic nationalism. Key developments highlighted include the 2025 National Security Strategy's focus on regional dominance, the military capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, and significant withdrawals from international organizations and climate agreements. These policies have strained traditional alliances while prioritizing U.S. resource access and domestic border security over global humanitarian assistance. Ultimately, the administration's approach suggests a future of transactional global engagement and a preference for military-backed regime change over multilateral diplomacy.
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231.
The State of the Union address is a foundational U.S. constitutional tradition that has evolved from a formal written report into a high-stakes televised event used to define presidential agendas. Historical data indicates that while the complexity of the speech's prose has decreased to reach a wider audience, actual television viewership has declined sharply over recent decades. Nonetheless, the address remains a critical mechanism for presidents to fulfill constitutional obligations and announce major foreign policy doctrines during periods of international instability.
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232.
Chatham House argues that Europe’s far-right parties are reframing themselves as pragmatic “realists” and are no longer fringe actors, with growing influence over mainstream policy agendas. The discussion highlights how their electoral rise is already shifting debates on migration, sovereignty, climate policy, and the EU’s strategic direction, even before full control of government. It reasons that if multiple major European states were governed by populists at once, the core uncertainty is whether they would moderate in office or intensify nationalist positions. The policy implication is that European governments and institutions should prepare for stress on cohesion, including weaker alignment on Ukraine and climate, more difficult UK-EU coordination, and stronger need for organized democratic counter-mobilization.
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233.Chatham House appoints Professor Marc Weller as the new Director of the Global Governance and Security Centre (Chatham House)
Chatham House’s announcement frames Marc Weller’s appointment as a leadership move to strengthen the Global Governance and Security Centre at a moment when international order is under strain. The core claim is that, despite geopolitical fragmentation, urgent transnational problems still require rule-based global cooperation on security, health preparedness, AI governance, and international law. The institute supports this by highlighting Weller’s credentials across academia, UN mediation and legal advisory roles, and recent policy interventions on Gaza, Ukraine, Venezuela, and broader legal-system defense. Strategically, the appointment signals a push for more active institutional reform and coalition-building among governments, business, and civil society to preserve and update multilateral governance frameworks.
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234.
The panel argues that while central bank independence (CBI) is increasingly challenged by high public debt and political populism, it remains essential for anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining price stability. Experts highlight that 'fiscal dominance' in high-debt environments increases political pressure to lower interest rates, particularly in the US, risking a return to 1970s-style inflation volatility. To maintain legitimacy, central banks must improve transparency and adapt to a new era of frequent supply shocks—such as AI and geopolitical shifts—which may drive higher neutral interest rates globally. Consequently, failure to safeguard CBI could lead to financial repression and a fragmentation of the global monetary regime.
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235.Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro? (Chatham House)
The panel argues that the U.S. seizure of Maduro marks a broader shift to explicit hemispheric power politics, where Washington is willing to use force based on narrowly defined national interests rather than traditional multilateral norms. Speakers contend that while the operation was tactically successful, it does not resolve Venezuela’s underlying governance, corruption, and institutional collapse, making durable stabilization and democratic transition highly uncertain. They also stress that the oil rationale is weak: Venezuela’s heavy crude, degraded infrastructure, legal uncertainty, and soft global demand make rapid production recovery costly and commercially unattractive, while disruption to China is likely limited. Strategically, the event signals a more fragmented Latin America, pressures partners into pragmatic bilateral bargaining with the U.S., and suggests policymakers should prioritize scenario planning for follow-on interventions, institutional reconstruction pathways, and tighter coordination among non-U.S. actors to preserve regional sovereignty and stability.
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236.
The panel’s core judgment is that MENA is showing “stabilization in name only”: open wars are partly contained, but underlying drivers of conflict are intensifying. Speakers pointed to converging internal and external pressure on Iran, a Gaza ceasefire that is effectively fragile and incomplete, renewed Saudi-UAE competition (including in Yemen), and Syria’s unsettled political order with Turkey-Israel rivalry layered on top. They also argued that a fragmented global system is producing multi-alignment rather than clear blocs, with licit and illicit financial networks blurring traditional binaries and complicating sanctions and governance. The strategic implication is that regional and Western policymakers should move beyond ad hoc conflict management toward coordinated, multi-actor political processes, while preparing for cross-border spillovers (security, migration, and economic disruption) if current flashpoints reignite.
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237.Defending NATO’s eastern flank: How Romania is responding to Russian aggression and European rearmament (Chatham House)
The event argues that Romania has become a pivotal frontline state in defending NATO’s eastern flank as Russia’s war against Ukraine reshapes European security. It points to Romania’s exposure to nearby Russian drone incidents, intensified information warfare, and Black Sea military operations, alongside NATO’s decision to host its largest base on Romanian territory, as evidence of its strategic centrality. Romania’s foreign minister frames continued support for Ukraine, defense modernization, and sustained military investment as core to deterrence and alliance resilience. The policy implication is that European rearmament must accelerate and remain coordinated, especially if US engagement in Europe becomes less reliable, to credibly deter further Russian coercion.
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238.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference highlighted a stark divergence between the U.S. administration’s "civilizational" vision and a European counter-vision, prominently led by women, which emphasizes democratic values and increased defense autonomy. While U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio promoted an alliance based on shared Christian heritage and supported illiberal leaders, European figures like Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen pushed for EU enlargement, increased military spending, and a stronger independent security framework. This rift is accelerating Europe's transition toward strategic self-sufficiency and the potential strengthening of EU mutual defense clauses as a backstop to NATO. Consequently, the transatlantic relationship faces a transformative period where Europe’s agency and commitment to democratic norms increasingly challenge the traditional U.S.-led security architecture.
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239.
The article argues that NATO is entering a structural shift: many Europeans now define “doing more” as long-term strategic autonomy, while the US still expects greater European spending within US-led command, planning, and procurement frameworks. It supports this with evidence of collapsing European trust in the US, strong public backing for deeper EU military integration, and concrete moves such as oversubscribed EU defense funding instruments and tighter regional cooperation. Although Europe still faces near-term capability and coordination gaps, the author says current rearmament and political momentum are unlikely to reverse even if US politics change. The policy implication is that Washington and NATO need explicit planning for a more independent Europe now, or face growing alliance friction over command, capabilities, and defense-industrial choices.
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240.
CFR argues that Trump’s State of the Union is primarily a political reset attempt as he faces low approval, difficult midterm dynamics, and skepticism that presidential rhetoric can quickly shift opinion. The article cites weak polling, slowing GDP growth, persistent goods-trade deficits, and a Supreme Court ruling curbing his use of IEEPA tariffs, leaving narrower options such as Section 122. It also flags major foreign-policy pressure points—Iran, Venezuela, China, NATO, Ukraine, and Gaza—where his messaging may signal priorities but not resolve underlying constraints. The key strategic implication is that while the speech can shape partisan narratives, policy outcomes will be driven more by legal limits on executive trade tools, electoral pressures, and high-risk security decisions that may outpace congressional checks.
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241.
The discussion argues that 2026 conflict risk will be shaped less by traditional multilateral conflict management and more by sphere-of-influence politics and transactional dealmaking by major powers. Ero’s reasoning is that with over 60 active conflicts, institutions like the UN and established mediators are increasingly sidelined, while regional and great-power actors (e.g., the US in Latin America, Gulf states in Sudan, Turkey in Syria, China in Myanmar) now carry more leverage over war and peace outcomes. She stresses that many current “peace” efforts are short-term truces rather than durable settlements, with places like Gaza, Sudan, and Somalia exposed to continued violence due to proxy competition, weak governance arrangements, and miscalculation risks among powerful states. For policy strategy, the implication is to prioritize pragmatic coalition-building with the actors who actually hold leverage, convert ceasefires into longer political processes, and adapt conflict-prevention tools to a more fragmented, law-weaker international order.
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242.
Maddox argues that the international system has shifted into destabilizing US-China superpower rivalry, with both powers undermining global peace and prosperity in different ways. She contends that Washington’s transactional unilateralism under Trump and Beijing’s coercive techno-industrial expansion have together weakened alliances, eroded legal norms, and increased risks of conflict, including over Taiwan and transatlantic security. The lecture supports this with examples including tariff coercion, pressure over critical minerals, intensified military signaling, and challenges to institutions such as NATO, the UN system, and global trade mechanisms. Strategically, she calls on non-superpower states to strengthen and build institutions, resolve regional conflicts through principled coalitions, and actively uphold international law to preserve a rules-based order without relying on US leadership.
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243.
CFR reports that the White House is ending a large immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota after intense backlash, even as the administration says it remains committed to mass deportations. The drawdown follows allegations of due-process violations, aggressive tactics, and the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens, with DHS still claiming thousands of arrests and no full public accounting yet of all detainees. Evidence in the piece suggests the shift is tactical rather than strategic: personnel are being reassigned, not a broader rollback of interior enforcement, and CBP as well as ICE have expanded domestic operations. For policymakers, this raises a near-term tradeoff between enforcement intensity and political/legal sustainability, with DHS funding negotiations likely to hinge on oversight, transparency, and limits on warrantless or masked operations.
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244.
Chatham House presents its Russia and Eurasia Programme as a policy-impact platform focused on delivering rigorous analysis of Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states whose trajectories have sharply diverged. The core argument is that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped regional security and politics, making sovereignty and independence the essential analytical starting point for all countries in scope. Its reasoning is grounded in sustained research output, expert convenings, media engagement, and partnerships with academic and policy institutions to test and disseminate findings on war dynamics, domestic political change, and regional geopolitics. For policymakers and strategists, the implication is a need for differentiated country-specific approaches, long-term support for Ukrainian resilience and reconstruction, and continuous reassessment of Russia’s internal and external trajectory in a volatile regional environment.
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245.
The report argues that the U.S. must transition from a purely protectionist response to China's automotive dominance toward a proactive strategy of global competition in autonomous, connected, and electric (ACE) vehicles. While current tariffs provide temporary breathing room, the author warns that indefinite isolation risks leaving the U.S. as a technological island of obsolete internal combustion engines while ceding international markets to Chinese firms. To maintain competitiveness, the U.S. should provide conditional financial support to domestic manufacturers, coordinate supply-chain diversification with allies, and manage national security risks through data localization rather than total exclusion. This strategy aims to secure the economic and environmental benefits of the automotive revolution while navigating the geopolitical rivalry with China.
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246.
The CFR’s 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identifies a significant rise in global instability, highlighting five high-likelihood, high-impact contingencies including intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and potential U.S. military operations in Venezuela. Based on a survey of over 600 experts, the report emphasizes a shift toward interstate conflict and identifies domestic political violence in the U.S. and AI-enabled cyberattacks as critical threats to national security. These findings suggest that the reduction of conflict prevention infrastructure and more coercive diplomatic stances increase the risk of the United States being drawn into costly, unpredicted military interventions.
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247.
Chatham House argues that accountability mechanisms must rapidly adapt because cyber operations are now being used to facilitate core international crimes, not just conventional cybercrime. The event highlights the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s new policy on cyber-enabled crimes under the Rome Statute as a key signal that cyber-enabled atrocities should be investigated and prosecuted on equal footing with offline conduct. Its reasoning centers on clarifying which cyber acts meet international criminal law thresholds, building workable legal frameworks, and addressing practical barriers to attribution, evidence collection, and prosecution. Strategically, states and international institutions should align domestic and international legal tools, strengthen investigative cooperation, and prioritize capacity for cyber-forensics and cross-border accountability.
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248.
The article argues that the Munich Security Conference exposed a deepening political-strategic split inside the West, even as leaders tried to project unity on core security issues. It cites Marco Rubio’s speech as emblematic: he reassured Europe that it still matters to Washington, but paired that with hard limits on U.S. support and warnings that America will act unilaterally when allies resist. The piece also points to contrasting interventions by Wang Yi, Keir Starmer, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to show how states are recalibrating between U.S.-China rivalry and uncertain transatlantic cohesion. Strategically, it implies European governments should prepare for more conditional U.S. backing, invest in autonomous defense and diplomatic capacity, and pursue flexible coalitions to manage both Russia-related threats and wider great-power competition.
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249.
The Trump administration has announced plans to revoke the 2009 Endangerment Finding, a move described as the largest deregulatory action in U.S. history that removes the legal basis for capping greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. The administration argues that eliminating these regulations will reduce energy costs and bolster American energy dominance, though the decision faces immediate legal challenges that could reach the Supreme Court. This policy pivot risks ceding leadership in the global electric vehicle and clean energy transition to China while further isolating the United States from international climate cooperation.
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250.
CFR reports that U.S. Southern Command’s anti-drug boat strike campaign intensified, with eleven people killed in one day across the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean, making it the deadliest day of the operation this year. The brief notes this brings reported fatalities to at least 144 since September, while the U.S. has not publicly released identities or evidence supporting claims that those killed were tied to trafficking networks. It highlights growing legal and normative challenges, including wrongful-death litigation and expert arguments that lethal force against suspected traffickers is unlawful absent an imminent violent threat. Strategically, the campaign may impose rising legal, reputational, and regional diplomatic costs, suggesting a need for stricter oversight, evidentiary transparency, and greater reliance on interdiction and criminal prosecution rather than expanded military strikes.
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251.
CFR panelists argued that commodity markets have shifted from a demand-led cycle to a supply- and policy-driven regime, with metals (especially gold and silver) rising while oil remains structurally softer. They cited evidence including sustained central-bank gold purchases since the 2022 reserve-freeze shock, growing investor hedging demand, tariff uncertainty under Section 232, and OPEC+/non-OPEC supply conditions that cap oil despite geopolitical tensions. The speakers assessed that oil spikes are still possible from Iran-related disruptions or labor shocks, but likely temporary unless a major outage occurs; baseline Brent expectations clustered around the high-$50s to low-$60s. Strategically, governments and firms should treat commodities as instruments of national security and currency power (including dollar-denominated oil flows), while preparing for persistent precious-metal strength, selective industrial-metal volatility, and policy tradeoffs in U.S.-Venezuela-Canada energy alignment.
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252.
Chatham House argues that Russia’s invasion is not only devastating Ukraine physically but also accelerating a deeper political transition away from entrenched old-rule networks and vested interests. Its reasoning is that Ukraine was already under internal pressure for reform, and wartime mobilization has intensified public demand for new rules and empowered a newer generation of policymakers. The analysis also stresses that sustained external backing for Ukraine’s defense is structurally shaping the country’s postwar trajectory, making a return to prewar political equilibrium unlikely. Policy-wise, partners should pair military support with long-term institution-building and governance reform assistance to lock in a more resilient Ukrainian state.
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253.
CFR’s brief argues that simultaneous Geneva negotiations on Iran’s nuclear file and the Ukraine war show the Trump administration trying to position Washington as the indispensable conflict broker, but both tracks remain constrained by major unresolved gaps. The report cites concrete escalation signals and bargaining asymmetries: U.S. military deployments and Iranian drills near Hormuz alongside disagreements over deal scope, and in Ukraine, continued Russian strike pressure and territorial demands despite recent Ukrainian battlefield gains. It also notes mixed diplomatic conditions, including European unease with parts of U.S. positioning and broader geopolitical moves by major powers, indicating a fragmented coalition environment. Strategically, the implication is that U.S. diplomacy may secure partial or phased outcomes at best unless paired with stronger leverage, clearer end-state definitions, and tighter allied coordination.
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254.
The event argues that defending Ukraine’s cultural, linguistic, and religious sovereignty is essential to any durable peace, because identity policy is directly tied to state security. It cites post-2014 reforms such as de-communization laws, language requirements in public life, and the 2019 independence of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine as evidence of Kyiv’s effort to reduce Russian imperial influence while maintaining private minority-language use. The discussion frames Russia’s full-scale war and negotiation demands (including restoring Russian influence networks and elevating Russian language status) as tools to weaken Ukrainian statehood from within. Strategically, it implies that peace terms must protect Ukraine’s control over domestic identity policy, while balancing EU-aligned minority-rights standards and prioritizing cultural heritage protection in recovery planning.
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255.Norman E. Alexander Family M Foundation Forum on Science and Foreign Policy: U.S. Science and Research in a Changing Landscape (CFR)
The webinar argues that global oil geopolitics has been fundamentally reshaped by Russia’s war in Ukraine, OPEC+ supply management, and shifting demand centers, even as the energy transition advances. Carolyn Kissane stresses that the world still consumes over 100 million barrels per day, with demand growth concentrated in Asia, while Russia has largely sustained exports by redirecting discounted crude to buyers such as India and China. She also highlights that state-owned producers and OPEC+ coordination continue to exert strong influence on prices, making markets vulnerable when supply is curtailed in already tight conditions. The policy implication is a dual-track strategy: preserve short-term energy security and price stability through diversified supply and contingency tools, while accelerating credible decarbonization pathways that account for uneven capacity and financing constraints across regions.
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256.
The report argues that European nations must strengthen sanctions against Russia’s 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers by mandating adequate insurance coverage through stricter regulation of flag states. This strategy aims to force vessels back into Western-regulated services, ensuring compliance with price caps and mitigating the risk of uninsured environmental disasters. Economic modeling indicates that aggressive enforcement, including insurance disclosure and flag state liability, could reduce Russian Baltic oil tax revenues by up to 14% while shifting the majority of trade to compliant vessels. To implement this, the UK and EU should coordinate on universal maritime standards and exert diplomatic and economic pressure on 'flags of convenience' to eliminate loopholes used for sanctions evasion.
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257.
CFR argues that a future Taiwan conflict will likely be a protracted, regional war involving multiple actors and external triggers, rather than a contained three-way contest. The report warns that China’s military modernization and gray-zone tactics have eroded U.S. deterrent advantages and shortened operational warning times. To address these new risks, the U.S. must shift from isolated planning to deeply integrated, pre-crisis consultative mechanisms with regional allies like Japan and the Philippines.
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258.
The U.S. and Iran face a volatile '50/50' chance of either military conflict or a symbolic diplomatic framework as an unprecedented U.S. military build-up meets low-trust negotiations in Geneva. While the Trump administration seeks a high-profile declaration of victory, Iran demands a formal negotiated text to ensure sanctions relief amid internal social unrest and Israeli pressure for preemption. Gulf states are actively mediating to avoid a regional war that would jeopardize their multi-billion dollar transitions into global AI and digital hubs. Consequently, any tactical miscalculation, particularly involving proxies like the Houthis, could trigger a wider entanglement with severe global economic and security repercussions.
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259.
CFR argues that Iran still does not have a nuclear weapon, but it retains the technical base to move quickly toward one and continues to field the Middle East’s most extensive ballistic missile arsenal despite major Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025. The piece cites IAEA findings of sharply increased near-weapons-grade enrichment, evidence of undeclared nuclear-related activity, and estimates that Iran’s breakout timeline for fissile material could be very short, while missile capabilities include systems with roughly 2,000 km range and demonstrated use in 2024 attacks on Israel. It also notes that military strikes may have delayed but not eliminated Iran’s program, as rebuilding and renewed U.S.-Iran talks in Oman suggest coercion alone has limits. Strategically, the article implies policymakers need a combined approach of verifiable nuclear constraints, missile/proxy limits, calibrated sanctions relief, and credible deterrence to reduce risks of regional war, proliferation, and escalation through miscalculation.
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260.
The article argues that the EU’s 2026 designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization marks a decisive break from three decades of engagement-based Iran policy. It says Europe’s old balance of pressure and dialogue collapsed after cumulative shocks: Iran’s military support to Russia after 2022, repression following Mahsa Amini’s death, failure to restore the nuclear deal in 2023, and UN snapback sanctions in 2025. The immediate trigger was the scale of the early-2026 crackdown, which convinced European governments there were no credible Iranian interlocutors left and that non-designation carried unacceptable reputational costs. Strategically, the move raises legal and compliance risks for EU and non-EU firms tied to Iran while likely reducing the EU’s diplomatic leverage, leaving Europe more sidelined in US-Iran decision-making.
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261.
The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, marks the end of formal limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, raising significant risks of a new arms race and strategic miscalculation. Experts warn that the loss of robust verification measures and on-site inspections will erode intelligence precision, likely prompting both superpowers to 'upload' reserve warheads onto existing delivery systems. To maintain stability, U.S. policy must balance necessary modernization—such as reopening submarine missile tubes—with the urgent pursuit of a follow-on agreement that ideally addresses non-strategic weapons and China's growing nuclear capabilities.
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262.
This CSIS analysis maps four potential oil supply disruption scenarios resulting from a possible U.S. military strike against Iran, warning that Tehran's current vulnerability may drive it to target regional energy infrastructure as a last resort. The report details how direct attacks on Arab Gulf facilities could push global oil prices above $130 per barrel, particularly as bypass routes for the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly limited in capacity. These dynamics present a strategic dilemma for the Trump administration, where escalating military pressure could trigger a global energy crisis or a 'use it or lose it' miscalculation by Iranian leadership.
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263.
The 'frozen conflict' in Transnistria has reached a critical turning point as Russia's loss of energy leverage and Moldova's EU trajectory create a unique three-year window for full reintegration. Since the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine in early 2025, Transnistria’s subsidized economy has faced collapse, shifting the balance of power toward Chisinau and exposing the fragility of Russian patronage. Successful reintegration will require Moldova to implement a comprehensive roadmap for security vetting and legal harmonization, supported by international diplomatic pressure for Russian troop withdrawal and EU financial aid to manage the transition to market-rate energy.
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264.
Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis argued that Europe is in a transition period requiring both stronger strategic autonomy and continued transatlantic cohesion, rather than a rupture with the United States or NATO. He supported higher European defense burden-sharing, warned that a sustainable Ukraine settlement must be fair and sovereignty-based, and maintained confidence that NATO Article 5 remains credible despite current political volatility. On the Middle East, he backed a UN-anchored Gaza stabilization framework, welcomed coordination with the proposed Board of Peace only within a limited Gaza mandate, and stressed that disarming Hamas must be paired with governance and education to prevent renewed extremism. He also framed Greece as a strategic energy and logistics hub and linked EU trade deals with India and Mercosur to a wider strategy of diversification, implying policymakers should reduce overreliance risks while preserving rules-based multilateral institutions.
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265.Exploring Opportunities For European Rearmament Through Ukraines Experience And Indo Pacific Partnerships (IISS)
The paper argues that Ukraine’s wartime defense-industrial adaptation offers a practical model for European rearmament under prolonged high-intensity conflict conditions. It attributes Ukraine’s resilience to three factors: restructuring domestic defense production, rapidly diversifying and hardening supply chains, and building flexible external industrial partnerships beyond Europe. The analysis highlights the growing strategic relevance of Indo-Pacific actors such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for technology and components, while noting that dependence on China remains both operationally important and geopolitically risky. For European strategy, the report implies that rearmament planning should prioritize industrial agility, supplier diversification, and broader cross-regional defense partnerships to strengthen long-term resilience.
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266.
The article argues that Kenya is moving from a primarily regional leadership role toward a broader, more assertive global foreign policy posture in response to a shifting world order. Its reasoning centers on Kenya’s 2024 strategy, which combines regional integration goals with diversified external partnerships, including longstanding Western security and economic ties, a strategic partnership with China, and expanding links with the UAE. Kenya’s engagement in multilateral security efforts, including the multinational mission in Haiti, is presented as evidence of its willingness to project influence beyond East Africa despite domestic protest pressures and regional conflict risks. Strategically, this suggests Kenya is pursuing pragmatic multi-alignment to maximize diplomatic leverage, trade and financing opportunities, while managing the risks of geopolitical balancing and policy overextension.
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267.
Chatham House frames Trump’s Belarus policy as a sharp departure from the West’s prior strategy of non-recognition and sanctions against Lukashenka. The immediate evidence is Washington’s lifting of sanctions on Belavia after the September release of Belarusian political prisoners, alongside public statements from Trump and Lukashenka about negotiating a larger deal. The article’s core reasoning is that this transactional approach may generate short-term leverage (for example, prisoner releases) but could undercut coordinated Western pressure on the regime. Strategically, it implies a tradeoff between tactical engagement and alliance cohesion, with potential spillover for Russia-containment policy and Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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268.
Chatham House argues that the post-1945 international order is under growing strain from renewed interstate aggression, coercive diplomacy, and great-power competition over future global rules. It reasons that credibility gaps—such as perceived Western double standards on Ukraine and Gaza—and a more transactional US foreign policy are accelerating institutional fragmentation. The centre’s approach is to identify which legacy norms can be preserved, where new rules are needed, and how to give greater weight to smaller states, aspiring middle powers, and Global South voices across security, law, digital, and health domains. For policymakers, the implication is that effective strategy now requires pragmatic institutional reform and broader coalition-building, rather than reliance on legacy governance frameworks alone.
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269.
The panel argues that China under Xi is pursuing a long-term effort to reshape international order around sovereignty, regime security, and reduced Western dominance, while avoiding costly ideological bloc politics. Speakers cite evidence including Beijing’s security-first governance model, parallel institution-building (e.g., BRI, AIIB, SCO, BRICS-adjacent platforms), efforts to de-risk supply chains and build economic leverage, and selective mediation diplomacy aimed especially at the Global South. They also emphasize tensions in China’s approach: it promotes an alternative governance narrative but still works inside existing institutions, and its global ambitions are constrained by domestic economic pressures and external pushback. For policymakers, the implication is to treat China’s strategy as structural and adaptive rather than episodic, requiring coordinated responses on economic resilience, technology dependence, and coalition-based diplomacy rather than issue-by-issue reactions.
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270.
Chatham House’s event frames the war in Ukraine as a hard-power contest whose outcome will shape Europe’s wider security order. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi is positioned to argue that battlefield developments should directly inform diplomatic expectations about war termination rather than optimism detached from military realities. The session emphasizes building a common European security strategy, with specific focus on the UK’s role and Ukraine’s contribution to allied defence and deterrence capacity. For policymakers, the implication is to prioritize long-term military readiness, tighter UK-Europe-Ukraine coordination, and strategy grounded in operational conditions on the front.
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271.
Chatham House argues that a second Trump presidency signals a shift from US hegemony to a more openly imperial foreign policy built on coercive leverage rather than alliance stewardship. It cites transactional diplomacy, disregard for international norms, threats toward allies such as Denmark over Greenland, and the operation to capture Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro as evidence of greater willingness to use force in support of a hemispheric dominance strategy. The analysis says this approach weakens NATO cohesion and broader European security assumptions while creating a more volatile environment in which states inside and outside Washington’s preferred orbit must recalibrate. It also concludes that Russia and China face a mix of risk and opportunity as US policy becomes more confrontational, producing a brittle order with higher miscalculation risk.
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272.
Chatham House frames Trump’s conflict strategy as a deliberate break from traditional diplomacy, centered on his pledge to act as a “peacemaker and unifier” through high-pressure dealmaking. The core logic is transactional: use US leverage to force adversaries into negotiations and lock in outcomes across multiple conflicts, including Ukraine, Gaza, the South Caucasus, and the DRC. The event description highlights mixed and disputed results, arguing that while this approach can create openings, it also unsettles allies and even parts of Trump’s domestic base that see tension with an America First posture. For policymakers, the key implication is that US-led peacemaking may become more coercive and personalized, requiring partners to adapt quickly while planning for uneven sustainability and credibility risks across simultaneous theaters.
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273.
Chatham House argues that Ukraine’s latest high-level corruption scandal is not only a governance crisis but a direct wartime vulnerability because it can erode domestic legitimacy and external financial support. The case centers on NABU’s alleged exposure of a graft scheme at state-owned Energoatom with potential losses of about $100 million, followed by sanctions steps, ministerial resignations, and allegations involving figures close to President Zelenskyy. The reasoning is that with Ukraine needing roughly $60 billion in external financing in 2026–2027, donor confidence depends on credible enforcement, not just exposure of wrongdoing. Strategically, the brief implies Kyiv and partners should prioritize prosecutorial follow-through, judicial independence, tighter anti-illicit-finance controls, and coordinated messaging to limit Kremlin exploitation of corruption narratives.
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274.
The article argues that the U.S. must update its narrative on Taiwan, moving away from viewing the island as a 'strategic liability' or a single point of failure for the global economy. It highlights that Taiwan's hardware is the irreplaceable backbone of America's AI ambitions and that conflict with China is not inevitable if a credible military deterrent is maintained. The proposed policy shift emphasizes a middle path: preserving the status quo to allow for an eventual non-coercive resolution while grounding U.S. support in calculated self-interest rather than ideological charity.
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275.
The discussion argues that oil will remain a central geopolitical risk through the near term, even as countries pursue decarbonization, because global demand is still above 100 million barrels per day and continues to rise. Kissane cites evidence that Russia’s war in Ukraine and OPEC+ production cuts have remapped trade flows, tightened supply, and sustained price volatility, while major buyers such as China and India absorb discounted Russian crude. She also notes that energy power is concentrated in a few producers and state-owned firms, with over 75% of global oil controlled by national companies, amplifying political leverage in markets. The strategic implication is that governments should pair energy-transition goals with hard energy-security planning: diversify suppliers, protect critical transport infrastructure, manage strategic reserves prudently, and avoid removing conventional supply faster than resilient alternatives can scale.
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276.
Chatham House argues that the Trump administration’s critical minerals push is less about outproducing China and more about building a geopolitically selective supply system led by Washington. The article points to the February 4 ministerial, the $12 billion “Project Vault” stockpile plan, and the FORGE platform (with proposed price floors) as evidence of serious US state-backed market shaping tied to alliance politics. It warns that investor confidence depends on long-horizon policy credibility, and that partisan attacks on prior administrations’ mineral programs can signal future policy reversals, raising stranded-asset risk. Strategically, the US should institutionalize these initiatives across agencies and administrations, prioritize trusted partners while expanding real new supply (including copper), and sustain long-term political de-risking in places like the DRC.
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277.
The event’s core argument is that violent extremism in West Africa cannot be contained by national responses because insecurity from the Lake Chad Basin to western Mali is fundamentally cross-border. Speakers point to the erosion of regional mechanisms after coups in the central Sahel, with stalled cooperation on hot pursuit, joint operations, intelligence sharing, and disruption of illicit finance, while Mali’s fuel blockade illustrates hard economic-security interdependence for landlocked states. The discussion suggests that parallel security blocs alone will be insufficient unless trust is rebuilt between Sahel and coastal states through practical bilateral and regional arrangements. Policy priorities therefore include restoring interoperable regional frameworks, creating confidence-building mechanisms among governments, and pairing military coordination with strategies that address underlying political and socio-economic drivers of insecurity.
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278.
CFR panelists argued that while Greenland is strategically important for Arctic warning, surveillance, and transatlantic security, U.S. ownership is not necessary to secure core defense interests. They cited the still-valid 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense framework, which already allows expanded U.S. basing and operations, and noted that practical constraints—harsh operating conditions, limited infrastructure, and high costs—undercut both military seizure scenarios and rapid resource exploitation. On critical minerals, speakers stressed that Greenland has potential but development cycles are long, financing is market-driven, and cooperation with allies (especially Denmark, Canada, and Europe) is more realistic than unilateral control. Strategically, the discussion suggests Washington should prioritize negotiated security upgrades and allied supply-chain partnerships, since coercive moves on Greenland would risk damaging NATO cohesion and broader U.S.-Europe coordination.
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279.
The podcast argues that Marco Rubio’s more diplomatic style toward Europe likely masks continuity, not change, in the Trump administration’s tougher strategic line. The key reasoning is the contrast in tone with JD Vance’s earlier confrontational remarks, while the underlying themes remained similar: Europe should carry more burden on security and adapt to a less accommodating US posture. Discussion points on Ukraine, drone and defense innovation, and Chinese industrial competition reinforce that transatlantic pressure is widening from military support to technology and economic resilience. The policy implication is that European governments and firms should plan for sustained US demands by accelerating defense capacity, coordinating long-term Ukraine support, and strengthening competitiveness against China.
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280.
Chatham House argues that Russia’s sustained, precision strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have become a strategic campaign to erode civilian resilience and force Kyiv to redirect scarce wartime resources from defense to emergency repairs. The event framing highlights compounding evidence: prolonged electricity shortages (in some areas down to a few hours per day), winter-time disruption of heating and water, economic losses from repeated infrastructure damage, and heightened humanitarian risk including potential new displacement flows into Europe. It also emphasizes that the pressure is systemic rather than episodic, with damage now threatening continuity of essential urban services and social stability. Policy implications are to pair immediate humanitarian and grid-repair support with longer-term protection measures and faster deployment of decentralized energy systems, while coordinating state, local, and civil-society resilience efforts with sustained partner backing.
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281.
INSS argues that Israel can economically absorb a gradual reduction in direct U.S. military aid, but the strategic and political value of the aid framework remains significant. It notes that aid now equals only about 0.5% of Israel’s GDP yet still funds roughly 15% of the defense budget, while stricter aid terms increasingly route spending to U.S. procurement and reduce direct support for Israeli industry. The paper also stresses that aid functions as a strategic anchor for U.S.-Israel ties and access to advanced U.S. systems, even as bipartisan support in the United States has weakened and aid has become more politically contested. It recommends replacing the current model with a formal transition toward defense-industrial partnership, avoiding full dollar-for-dollar budget replacement, and using the shift to drive efficiency, prioritization, and domestic capability building.
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282.2025 Arthur Ross Book Award Ceremony and Meeting: "The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the C.I.A., and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq” (CFR)
At CFR’s 2025 Arthur Ross Book Award ceremony, the central discussion around Steve Coll’s The Achilles Trap argued that the Iraq War stemmed not only from U.S. analytic and policy failures but from a profound misreading of Saddam Hussein’s motives and decision logic. Drawing on newly accessible Iraqi archives, tapes of Saddam’s internal meetings, and interviews, Coll showed that Saddam had largely dismantled key WMD capabilities in 1991 yet preserved ambiguity out of regime psychology, deterrence signaling, and distrust that sanctions would be lifted even with cooperation. The conversation emphasized that U.S. policymakers over-relied on partial intelligence and assumptions, while limited direct contact with Baghdad deepened strategic misperception. The policy implication is to prioritize adversary psychology, maintain calibrated channels of communication with hostile regimes, and apply greater analytic humility before irreversible military decisions.
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283.
Robert D. Blackwill proposes "resolute global leadership" as the most effective American grand strategy to counter a peer-competitor China and navigate the most dangerous international environment since World War II. The report analyzes five alternative strategic schools, concluding that the U.S. must leverage its unique economic, military, and technological advantages while reconciling itself to a world where its dominance is no longer unchallenged. Key policy recommendations include substantially increasing the defense budget, pivoting military assets to the Indo-Pacific, and re-engaging in multilateral trade frameworks like the CPTPP to revitalize the rules-based order. Ultimately, it emphasizes balancing Chinese power through strengthened alliances and 'peace through strength,' while rejecting military force for purely ideological goals.
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284.
The panel’s core finding is that the UK can afford warfighting only if it makes earlier, harder political choices on defence spending and reform, because current plans are too slow for the threat timeline. Speakers argued that moving from roughly 2.3% to 3.5% of GDP requires major trade-offs (higher taxes, cuts elsewhere, or more borrowing) and that past procurement failures have weakened confidence that spending converts into usable capability. They stressed that modern conflict would hit the UK homeland through cyber, disinformation, and infrastructure disruption as well as missiles and drones, while reduced US support raises the burden on Europe. Strategically, the UK should accelerate readiness, improve procurement accountability and industrial surge capacity, rebuild stockpiles, and run a more honest national debate on resilience, mobilisation, and societal preparedness.
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285.
The Chatham House panel argued that shrinking Western aid budgets are no longer just a development issue but a strategic security risk for the UK and its partners. Speakers cited sharp cuts across major donors, disruption from the 2025 USAID retrenchment, and operational impacts such as HALO Trust potentially shrinking from 12,000 to 7,000 staff, warning this will hit fragile and conflict-affected states hardest. They reasoned that reduced support for conflict prevention, multilateral institutions, and long-term partnerships creates space for rival influence, increases instability and migration pressures, and weakens UK diplomatic leverage. For UK strategy, the discussion pointed to prioritizing conflict-focused aid, preserving credible multilateral engagement while using targeted bilateral strengths, rebuilding a clear long-term narrative linking aid to domestic security, and mobilizing non-traditional and private financing to offset fiscal constraints.
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286.Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21 st century (Brookings)
Brookings’ expert roundtable argues that a U.S. "Donroe Doctrine" push for hemispheric primacy is more likely to weaken than strengthen Washington’s position in long-term competition with China, though one contributor contends it could restore deterrence by denying Beijing footholds near U.S. borders. The dominant reasoning is that coercive regional tactics and unilateral moves drain U.S. military bandwidth from the Indo-Pacific, damage alliances, and erode soft power while giving China narrative and diplomatic advantages. Experts also note China’s already deep regional footprint, including major trade, investment, and infrastructure ties across Latin America, which makes a clean spheres-of-influence rollback unrealistic. Strategically, a formal U.S.-China spheres bargain is assessed as unstable and asymmetric: it could pressure smaller states to hedge, accelerate regional militarization and possible nuclear proliferation, and incentivize revisionist claims elsewhere, suggesting U.S. policy should prioritize alliance credibility, rules-based coordination, and positive economic alternatives over coercion.
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287.
The conflict in Ukraine has settled into a prolonged pattern of attrition and positional fighting, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough. While Russia retains tactical advantages, the analysis suggests that time is working against Moscow due to increasing manpower strain and operational failures, preventing the attainment of key objectives like fully securing Donetsk. Strategically, the fighting itself informs the relative leverage of both parties, meaning that external diplomatic pressure to impose a cease-fire is unlikely to succeed. Policymakers must recognize that the war is not nearing a quick end and that sustained, long-term support is required to manage a protracted conflict.
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288.
The publication argues that while the transatlantic alliance faces deep rifts due to US political volatility, the commitment to the partnership remains strong. Allies must adapt by adopting a strategy of assertive self-reliance, recognizing that they can no longer solely depend on the United States for security. This requires enhancing mutual burden-sharing and maintaining robust trade ties while simultaneously holding firm on national interests. The path forward demands a strategic shift from passive appeasement to a proactive, mutually beneficial partnership that asserts the sovereignty of all involved parties.
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289.Managing Systemic Supply Chain Risk to the U.S. Economy from Trade Concentration and Geopolitical Conflict: The Roles of Insurance and Other Hedging Strategies (RAND)
This RAND report argues that systemic supply chain risks from geopolitical conflict are significant and underappreciated, particularly in sectors like nonferrous metals and electrical components sourced from countries such as Brazil and India. The authors find that private insurance is ill-suited for managing these correlated, large-scale risks, while government interventions often lack necessary market-sensing mechanisms to prevent unsustainable private practices. To enhance resilience, the report recommends that the U.S. government track conflict-dependency overlaps and that industries adopt 'Til Needed' hedging options—private contracts for surge capacity—to bridge the gap between market incentives and national economic security.
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290.
The article argues that global population aging and shrinking working-age populations will fundamentally constrain the capacity of major states to wage war, leading to a potential 'geriatric peace.' This theory is supported by demographic trends, such as China's projected dramatic decline in its working-age population, which limits both resources and manpower for conflict. While acknowledging that demographic factors are not deterministic—citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a counterexample—the analysis suggests that these limitations will dampen the pressures for large-scale great power conflict, particularly between the US and China. Policymakers should factor demographic decline into long-term strategic planning, recognizing it as a structural brake on military escalation.
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291.
The war in Ukraine is characterized as a hybrid conflict, blending historical elements like static frontlines with unprecedented technological advancements. The key evidence cited is the broad and effective integration of modern technologies, including satellites, autonomous systems, and AI software, fundamentally changing the nature of warfare. For the United States, these trends are deeply concerning, suggesting that military doctrine must adapt to a high-tech environment rather than relying on assumptions of quick, decisive victory. America must therefore learn to navigate this complex technological battlefield to maintain strategic superiority.
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292.
The analysis of Stoltenberg's NATO tenure argues that while the alliance successfully navigated multiple crises, its diplomatic efforts ultimately struggled against the overwhelming forces of great-power geopolitics. Key evidence shows that despite intense negotiations and increased defense spending, NATO was unable to prevent political drift (e.g., Trump's skepticism) or ensure timely, decisive material support for allies. The primary implication is that while collective defense remains vital, future NATO strategy must develop mechanisms to bridge the gap between political commitment and rapid, reliable military aid to ensure the stability and sovereignty of Eastern European partners.
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293.The Rise of the Russian Hawks: Ideology and Politics From the Late Soviet Union to Putin’s Russia (Foreign Affairs)
The research traces the rise of 'modernist conservatism'—an anti-Western ideology encompassing Orthodox monarchists and Eurasianists—from informal intellectual circles in the late Soviet era to its current influence on the Putin regime. Key evidence shows that these groups advocate for a self-reliant Russian model based on technological and military might to assert civilizational distinction from the West. While the Kremlin has increasingly adopted this thinking, the leadership now relies on external think tanks rather than formal state institutions for ideological production. This suggests that Russia's strategic direction is driven by decentralized, yet potent, ideological currents, complicating policy responses and signaling a persistent, non-state source of geopolitical pressure.
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294.
The current geopolitical focus of policymakers in Washington and Europe is overwhelmingly consumed by responding to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This response has necessitated the provision of massive military, economic, and humanitarian aid to prevent Ukraine’s collapse. While the immediate crisis demands immense resources, the article suggests that this singular focus may obscure the preparation for future conflicts. Policymakers must therefore look beyond the current front lines to anticipate and mitigate emerging security threats across the broader European continent.
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295.
The article argues that Russian defense policymaking operates within an "imperfect equilibrium" between presidential authority and military leadership, characterized by cycles of reform and centralization. Key evidence traces Putin's efforts to control the armed forces, from the sweeping reforms of Anatoly Serdyukov to the subsequent rearmament under Sergei Shoigu. However, the military's structural flaws became critically evident during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, effective military improvement requires deeper presidential involvement in decision-making and the significant militarization of the national economy.
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296.
The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates that modern great-power warfare is characterized by sustained, highly destructive conventional conflict and a fragile, elevated risk of nuclear escalation, rather than quick, decisive outcomes. While Russia's nuclear threats are significant, Ukraine's resilience and ability to strike deep into Russian territory show that nuclear weapons do not guarantee coercive leverage. Consequently, the U.S. must update its defense planning to prepare for protracted wars of attrition with nuclear-armed adversaries, focusing on strengthening deterrence, coordinating with allies, and maintaining readiness for extended, high-stakes conflicts.
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297.Export Controls on Artificial Intelligence and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems: Interagency Challenges (RAND)
This RAND report argues that current U.S. export controls for AI and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) are lagging behind rapid technological advancements and require a more agile, data-centric interagency approach. The study finds that the U.S. no longer maintains a technological monopoly, meaning overly restrictive controls risk hollowing out the domestic industrial base and driving global partners toward Chinese alternatives. Consequently, the authors recommend shifting regulatory focus toward specialized military training data rather than ubiquitous hardware, while calling for increased funding and technical expertise for the Bureau of Industry and Security.
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298.
The conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a protracted 'war of endurance,' significantly exceeding Russia's initial objectives of quick subjugation. The conflict is characterized as Europe's largest conventional war since World War II, marked by its longevity and immense human cost. This sustained nature suggests that the conflict is less about rapid military victory and more about attrition and geopolitical resilience. Policy implications necessitate a long-term strategic commitment from international partners, recognizing that the war's endurance requires sustained support across military, economic, and diplomatic fronts.
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299.
The article argues that the initial Western objective of restoring Ukraine's full pre-2022 sovereignty over all internationally recognized territory has become strategically implausible. This shift in goal is attributed to the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, which forced Western leaders to concede a new reality. Consequently, policy and strategy must pivot away from demanding full territorial restoration and instead focus on a more pragmatic, negotiated settlement that accepts Russia's de facto control over occupied regions. This suggests a necessary re-evaluation of victory conditions for international support.
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300.
This report analyzes the evolving demographics and welfare needs of the Royal Navy and Royal Marines (RN&RM) community, projecting a stable Regular force of approximately 33,000 through 2040 despite a more volatile strategic environment. It finds that increasing operational tempo and unpredictable deployments are placing significant strain on families, evidenced by high levels of partner loneliness and chronic childcare accessibility issues. The study suggests that the Naval welfare sector must modernize its support by adopting holistic, 'whole force' approaches that mitigate mental health stigma and address structural barriers to partner employment to ensure long-term recruitment and retention.
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301.
Beijing views the current U.S. policy toward China as a moment of strategic flux and opportunity, capitalizing on perceived inconsistency in Washington's approach. China is actively shifting from a reactive to an offensive posture, using economic tools like rare-earth controls and exerting pressure on U.S. allies to strengthen its global standing. Furthermore, the U.S.'s increased focus on the Western Hemisphere and Latin America is interpreted by Beijing as a strategic distraction, allowing China to dedicate greater resources and attention to the Indo-Pacific. Policymakers must recognize that this enduring rivalry persists despite short-term policy shifts, requiring a nuanced strategy that addresses China's proactive regional ambitions.
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302.
China's economic statecraft is proving highly effective, primarily by capitalizing on the protectionist and volatile foreign economic policies of the United States. Beijing employs a sophisticated 'carrot and stick' strategy, using advanced export controls against rivals while simultaneously offering attractive development financing and cheap goods to the Global South. This dual approach is successfully embedding many developing nations into Chinese-dominated supply chains, as seen in critical sectors like nickel and EVs. Consequently, China gains significant global leverage, enabling it to advance its domestic and foreign policies with minimal international opposition, posing a growing challenge to Western economic influence.
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303.
European leaders and Canada convened a 'coalition of the willing' summit to establish security guarantees for Ukraine amidst ongoing Russian assaults. The primary finding is the commitment to forming a multinational European-led force, comprising land and sea components, designed for deployment should a ceasefire be reached. While hailed as a breakthrough, the outcome is noted as a repetition of previous commitments, suggesting a predictable, albeit detailed, path toward collective security. Strategically, this indicates a sustained, multilateral European effort to manage the conflict's aftermath and deter future aggression.
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304.
Russia's conflict is evolving beyond traditional hybrid operations, escalating into a comprehensive 'shadow war' aimed at destabilizing the entire continent. This campaign involves increasingly nakedly kinetic attacks targeting critical infrastructure and populations within NATO borders, indicating a shift from mere persuasion to outright destruction. Policymakers must recognize this strategic escalation, as Moscow's objective is no longer limited to Ukraine but is designed to dismantle the collective will and physical capacity of European adversaries. Counter-strategies must therefore address this direct, destructive warfare rather than solely focusing on diplomatic or informational countermeasures.
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305.
The peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, established by the Dayton Accords, is highly fragile and remains incomplete. The core challenge lies in the complex power-sharing structure, which requires sustained international oversight to prevent ethnic tensions from resurfacing. This oversight is currently eroding due to the geopolitical focus of major powers, such as Europe's attention on Ukraine and potential reductions in U.S. security assistance. The resulting vacuum increases the risk of renewed instability and conflict in the Balkans, necessitating renewed international diplomatic and security engagement.
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306.
The removal of Nicolás Maduro has created a precarious power vacuum, forcing the Venezuelan regime into an existential dilemma between outright defiance and pragmatic collaboration with the United States. The analysis suggests the regime's primary focus is survival, making the retention of power—rather than democratic reform—its critical 'redline.' While the U.S. demands center on material gains, particularly control over oil resources, the current trajectory risks establishing a semi-colonial state. Consequently, the U.S. strategy is unlikely to yield a long-term political solution, as the opposition remains excluded from any table of negotiation.
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307.
The article argues that characterizing the current US-China relationship solely through Cold War analogies is inaccurate and dangerous, as the global system is fundamentally multipolar and highly integrated economically. Westad notes that unlike the bipolar Cold War era, great powers now compete within a single, interconnected global economic framework. While historical lessons—such as the necessity of dialogue, mutual respect, and strategic deterrence—remain crucial for managing crises, policymakers must acknowledge the unprecedented complexity of this modern, interconnected order. Therefore, strategy must balance great power competition with mechanisms for sustained communication to prevent conflict.
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308.
The article argues that the United States and China are uniquely positioned to forge a 'grand bargain' to stabilize the global order, shifting from ideological confrontation to productive coexistence. This opportunity is driven by the recognition that both nations benefit from a multipolar world and are deeply economically interdependent. To prevent a high-risk conflict, the policy strategy must pivot toward pragmatic cooperation, requiring the reform of the international system. Implementing this bargain necessitates establishing reciprocal agreements on trade, technology, and security to ensure peaceful power sharing and mutual benefit.
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309.
The article argues that Russia is undergoing a descent into a more overt and pervasive form of tyranny following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Key evidence cited includes the unexpected surge in popularity of George Orwell’s *1984* within Russian culture, suggesting a growing internal awareness or critique of the regime's totalitarian tendencies. For policy, this implies that Western strategies must anticipate deepening internal dissent and recognize that the Kremlin's control mechanisms are becoming increasingly reliant on propaganda and surveillance. Policymakers should prepare for a prolonged period of internal instability and heightened authoritarianism within the Russian state.