ThinkTankWeekly

The War Against Time

CSIS | 2026-05-04 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The ongoing instability in the Gulf is creating systemic global risk by eroding energy and trade buffers, threatening macroeconomic stability across the Indo-Pacific. This immediate crisis distracts the United States from its core long-term strategic challenge: the economic and technological competition with China. While the U.S. gains some leverage in infrastructure, the article argues that Washington lacks a clear, predictable, and durable economic strategy to counter Beijing's methodical build-up of semiconductor and AI capacity. Policy must therefore prioritize developing a long-term economic competition framework that transcends crisis management and uses export controls with discipline to avoid accelerating Chinese indigenization.

中文摘要

海灣地區持續的不穩定正在透過侵蝕能源和貿易緩衝能力,造成系統性的全球風險,威脅著整個印太地區的宏觀經濟穩定。這一即時危機分散了美國對其核心長期戰略挑戰的注意力:即與中國在經濟和技術領域的競爭。儘管美國在基礎設施方面獲得了一定籌碼,但本文認為,華盛頓缺乏一套清晰、可預測且持久的經濟戰略來對抗北京在半導體和人工智慧(AI)能力上的系統性積累。因此,政策必須優先發展一個超越危機管理、用於長期經濟競爭的框架,並有紀律地運用出口管制,以避免加速中國的產業自主化進程。

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