CSIS Think Tank Reports | ThinkTankWeekly

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82 reviewed reports in the portal

This hub page collects curated ThinkTankWeekly entries for CSIS and links readers back to the publisher for the original reports.

Featured topics: United States, Trade, China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia

1.

The Impact of Tariffs on the AI Data Center Buildout: Balancing Supply Chain Security and AI Infrastructure Leadership (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | economy | 2026-W20 | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade, United States, Economy

The article argues that the U.S.'s use of broad tariffs, particularly Section 232 on semiconductors, fundamentally threatens the $2.7 trillion AI data center buildout by 2030. While tariffs on foundational metals increase costs, the most significant risk comes from semiconductor levies, which target the largest and least-substitutable portion of the capital expenditure. Implementing a broad semiconductor tariff could inflate the total buildout cost by over 50%, severely undermining U.S. AI infrastructure leadership. Policymakers must resolve the tension between supply chain security and economic ambition by exempting critical semiconductor inputs to maintain the pace and affordability of domestic AI development.

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2.

Overturning the Endangerment Finding Threatens Americans’ Health, Wealth, and Security (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | health | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Middle East, United States, Health

The rescission of the 2009 endangerment finding removes the legal basis for federal climate regulation, despite the established scientific consensus that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pose a severe threat to public health. The article argues that this policy decision risks increasing emissions, compounding long-term public health crises from extreme heat, air pollution, and disease. Strategically, this signals an abdication of global responsibility, potentially eroding international climate consensus and allowing competitors, particularly China, to widen their lead in green technology and geopolitical influence.

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3.

How Are Perceptions of the U.S.-Mexico Relationship Changing? (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | americas | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Trade, United States, Americas

The U.S.-Mexico relationship is facing significant strain due to growing skepticism in Mexico regarding U.S. reliability and political predictability. This distrust is fueled by volatile U.S. policy swings, aggressive trade tactics, and persistent concerns over potential unilateral military actions. While deep economic and security cooperation remains essential (e.g., USMCA review, drug trafficking), Mexico's increasing doubt suggests that future bilateral efforts will require Washington to demonstrate greater stability and transparency. Failure to stabilize the political climate risks undermining established cooperation and complicates regional governance.

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4.

Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | china_indopacific | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The state visit signaled a desire for 'strategic stability' and economic cooperation, evidenced by China's agreement to purchase major U.S. goods. However, the summit highlighted deep geopolitical divergences, particularly regarding Taiwan and the Middle East (Iran). Beijing appears to be using economic engagement to buy time and forestall tariffs, while the U.S. is leveraging the relationship to manage the Iran conflict. Policymakers must anticipate continued strategic competition, as both nations will use upcoming multilateral forums, such as the G20, to manage their conflicting priorities and maintain influence.

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5.

AI Licensing Comes Full Circle (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | tech | 2026-W20 | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Trade, United States, Technology

The concept of mandatory AI licensing and pre-release testing is resurfacing as a critical policy concern, driven by the emergence of highly capable, vulnerable models and renewed political interest in regulation. While the U.S. government is considering an executive order modeled after drug approval processes, the author argues that simply adapting existing regulations is insufficient. For effective policy, the U.S. must craft a framework tailored to AI's unique, continuously evolving nature, focusing heavily on rigorous pre-release evaluation methods. Crucially, any licensing regime must be paired with robust post-market oversight and enforcement mechanisms to manage the risks posed by advanced, rapidly advancing AI systems.

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6.

The Iran Conflict Illuminates Taiwan’s Unique Energy Security Challenge (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | energy | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Climate, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States, Energy

The article argues that Taiwan faces a critical and complex energy security challenge, intensified by global conflicts and its deep reliance on imported fossil fuels. This vulnerability is compounded by the exponential energy demands of its semiconductor industry, which underpins its strategic global value, and the geopolitical threat of resource cutoff from China. To mitigate risks, Taiwan is rapidly diversifying energy sources away from the Middle East and increasing storage capacity. Policy must therefore urgently balance massive industrial energy growth, climate transition goals, and geopolitical instability to ensure sustained national resilience.

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7.

Why China Is Now a Peer Competitor to the United States in Cyberspace (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | china_indopacific | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Nuclear, Trade, United States, Indo-Pacific

The article argues that China has matured into a full peer competitor to the United States in cyberspace, demonstrating capabilities across sophistication, scale, stealth, and strategy. Evidence points to China's deep penetration of U.S. critical infrastructure and its ability to mobilize a whole-of-society approach, including controlling the private sector's vulnerability supply chain. For policy, the US must abandon the concept of 'cyber deterrence' and instead adopt a reinvigorated, multi-domain strategy that strengthens its own cyber defenses, revitalizes its institutions, and develops clear, cross-domain responses to Chinese malicious activity.

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8.

Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | middle_east | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Middle East, United States

The analysis argues that while direct diplomatic talks offer a genuine path toward peace between Lebanon and Israel, achieving lasting security requires the re-emergence of a strong, sovereign Lebanese state. Key challenges include Israel's tendency to undermine state institutions through unilateral military actions, and the continued opposition from non-state actors like Hezbollah and Iran. Strategically, the US must pivot its focus from purely military confrontation to comprehensive support for Lebanese security sector reform and state capacity building, as this is identified as the only durable solution to the border conflict.

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9.

What did the Trump-Xi Summit Achieve? (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | economy | 2026-W20 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Economy

The summit did not result in major breakthroughs but rather a return to managed stability in U.S.-China relations. Key outcomes include the establishment of a 'Board of Trade' and a 'Board of Investment,' which experts view as structural continuations of previous dialogues rather than radical new commitments. The discussions focused on managing existing trade flows and extending ceasefires, allowing China to maintain its economic status quo without making significant concessions. Strategically, this suggests that the U.S. must adjust its policy away from demanding fundamental systemic changes and instead focus on managing these stable, yet limited, bilateral agreements.

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10.

Beyond Russian Gas: Trade-Offs in EU Liquefied Natural Gas Diversification (CSIS)

2026-05-18 | energy | 2026-W20 | Topics: Climate, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Energy

The report argues that while the EU successfully transitioned away from Russian gas, its new LNG strategy risks replacing one dependency with another, creating new concentration risks. Utilizing a dual-risk framework (price volatility, geopolitical exposure, and supplier concentration), the analysis demonstrates that reliance on a single supplier or contract type is inherently unstable. Therefore, the core policy recommendation is that the EU must adopt a resilient energy portfolio that balances diversified long-term contracts with retained spot-market flexibility. Ultimately, long-term security requires mitigating geopolitical risks and actively managing critical chokepoint vulnerabilities, rather than simply substituting one major supplier for another.

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11.

How to Lose an Information War in 10 Days (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | defense | 2026-W19 | Topics: China, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, United States, Defense

A recent CSIS analysis of the U.S.-Iran conflict highlights how Iran effectively countered U.S. battlefield successes through a sophisticated information war campaign utilizing deepfakes, false claims, and narratives exploiting American skepticism towards foreign intervention. The report emphasizes that simply achieving military victory is insufficient; maintaining public trust and shaping the narrative are crucial. To counter this, the U.S. needs to proactively rebuild public diplomacy, establish rapid response information warfare task forces, and prioritize speed and transparency in communication to establish a dominant narrative and expose disinformation networks.

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12.

Sinaloa Governor Indicted: USMCA, Cartels, and the Future of U.S.-Mexico Trade (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | americas | 2026-W19 | Topics: Trade, United States, Americas

The indictment of a sitting Sinaloa Governor by the U.S. Department of Justice for alleged cartel ties marks a significant shift in U.S.-Mexico relations, effectively linking security cooperation to economic integration under USMCA. For years, the U.S. has pressured Mexico to dismantle the nexus between criminal organizations and political structures, escalating from fentanyl enforcement to targeting high-level officials. This indictment, occurring just before the USMCA review, signals that security performance is now a prerequisite for continued trade benefits and potentially foreshadows unilateral U.S. action if Mexico fails to adequately address corruption and cartel influence. The situation presents a complex challenge for the Sheinbaum administration, caught between U.S. pressure and internal political considerations.

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13.

Japan’s New Defense Export Policy: Will Industry Seize the Day? (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | china_indopacific | 2026-W19 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Trade, Ukraine, United States

CSIS analysis indicates that Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi has enacted a landmark shift in defense export policy, effectively removing restrictions on arms sales to a defined list of partner nations. This change, driven by participation in key programs like the Global Combat Aircraft Program and support for the Royal Australian Navy, aims to foster a more ‘normal’ defense industrial profile for Japan. While industry’s success hinges on continued government support and expanded collaboration, the policy represents a significant step towards greater engagement in the global defense market. The initial export focus will be on 17 countries, primarily within Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, excluding Ukraine at this time.

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14.

Press Briefing: Previewing the Trump-Xi Summit (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | china_indopacific | 2026-W19 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

According to a CSIS press briefing, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, delayed by six weeks, aims to address five U.S. priorities ("the five Bs") and three Chinese priorities ("the three Ts") including Taiwan, tariffs, and technology. China enters the meeting in a stronger position due to recent U.S. actions and a perceived improvement in its relative power, and is likely to pressure the U.S. regarding Taiwan, potentially seeking changes to U.S. policy on arms sales and transit for Taiwanese leaders. The briefing suggests China is well-prepared and confident, while the U.S. lacks a unified approach and is not adequately investing in its long-term economic foundations.

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15.

Spectrum, 6 G, and the Future of AI Leadership (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | tech | 2026-W19 | Topics: China, United States, Technology

This CSIS report argues that spectrum policy is increasingly intertwined with AI advancement, particularly as 6G technology emerges. The report highlights that the deployment of AI-powered systems, especially those requiring low latency like autonomous vehicles and robotics, will heavily rely on access to sufficient mid-band spectrum. Drawing lessons from the 5G rollout and China's rapid advancements, the authors warn that inadequate U.S. spectrum policy risks hindering domestic AI competitiveness and national security. Expanding the spectrum pipeline and streamlining allocation processes are crucial for U.S. leadership in AI and 6G.

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16.

Lessons for the United States in the Militant Attacks that Killed Mali’s Defense Minister (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | africa | 2026-W19 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Africa

Recent coordinated attacks in Mali, including the death of the Defense Minister, highlight a deteriorating security situation and the failure of military juntas and their Russian partners to effectively combat militant groups. The attacks, involving both al Qaeda-linked groups and Tuareg separatists, demonstrate a complex conflict driven by local grievances and separatist aspirations, not just terrorism. The U.S., as it re-engages in the Sahel, risks repeating Russia's mistakes by prioritizing security for resources and neglecting governance and local dynamics, necessitating a more multidimensional approach focused on genuine partnership and addressing underlying economic and political issues.

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17.

States Weekly: May 6, 2026 (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | economy | 2026-W19 | Topics: AI, Climate, Indo-Pacific, Economy

This week's state-level policy updates highlight a focus on renewable energy, AI adoption, and labor reforms across India. Key developments include Maharashtra's AI policy and MAGESTIC scheme to boost renewable energy, Andhra Pradesh's policy for data centers, and Karnataka's grievance redressal mechanism for gig workers. Several states are also aligning with national codes on wages and industrial relations, while others are implementing policies to improve water resource management and modernize prison systems. These actions suggest a concerted effort to modernize infrastructure, promote technological advancement, and address social and economic challenges at the state level.

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18.

Building a Robust U.S.-ROK Cyber Alliance (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | china_indopacific | 2026-W19 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, United States

The CSIS report argues that the U.S. and South Korea must significantly strengthen their cyber cooperation to effectively deter and respond to escalating threats from North Korea, China, and Russia. It proposes a new, integrated framework emphasizing shared situational awareness, improved attribution, and proactive cyber defense, including a Cyberattack Severity Classification Framework (CSCF) to standardize decision-making. The report stresses aligning cyber policy with broader diplomatic, financial, and law enforcement tools to enhance overall resilience. This necessitates a shift beyond reactive measures towards a more comprehensive and coordinated approach.

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19.

Management Matters (CSIS)

2026-05-08 | economy | 2026-W19 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Economy

This CSIS analysis argues that effective policy implementation hinges on competent management, and neglecting this can undermine even well-intentioned policies. The article highlights recent mismanagement at the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), leading to backlogs, strained industry relations, and isolation from international partners, ultimately hindering export control efforts. The author emphasizes the importance of leveraging career expertise, fostering communication with industry, and maintaining multilateral cooperation for successful policy outcomes.

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20.

How Open-Source, Real-Time Data Can Defeat China at the Edge of Its Influence (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | china_indopacific | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Trade, United States, Indo-Pacific

The article argues that the U.S. must counter China's expanding localized global influence by leveraging its technological and informational strengths. The core strategy involves harnessing open-source, real-time data (OSINT) to empower local actors, improve rapid interagency coordination, and provide evidence for counter-messaging. Policy recommendations emphasize amplifying authentic local voices, utilizing technology to monitor complex networks (like supply chains), and preparing for extreme economic contingencies, such as targeted sanctions or supply chain decoupling, to reassert U.S. leadership.

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21.

Can Space Be Disrupted Like the Strait of Hormuz? (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | defense | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, United States, Defense

The article argues that outer space is vulnerable to disruption, mirroring how a limited force can destabilize a vital choke point like the Strait of Hormuz. This risk is amplified because most operational satellites are located in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), a region susceptible to anti-satellite weapons and debris creation. To protect the burgeoning space economy and maintain freedom of passage, the U.S. must prioritize diplomatic engagement with China and Russia to establish modern space governance. Strategically, the U.S. should also invest in technologies for debris mitigation and reassess its military reliance on LEO, thereby avoiding a potential conflict requiring superior military force.

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22.

Trade or Aid (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | economy | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade, United States, Economy

The article critiques the administration's 'trade over aid' initiative, arguing it is a flawed and hypocritical attempt to justify massive cuts in foreign aid. While the free-market approach is advocated, the analysis notes that successful development models, particularly in Asia, require strategic government intervention, subsidies, and protection, rather than pure laissez-faire principles. Furthermore, the push for 'mutually beneficial' trade is undermined by the administration's own 'America First' policies, which are not genuinely reciprocal. For effective global development, policy must therefore balance market principles with strategic state guidance and ensure that trade assistance involves genuine, reciprocal purchasing commitments from developed nations.

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23.

How is the Iran War Impacting China's Economy (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Middle East

Reduced Export Demand: The war has weakened global economic growth, with the IMF cutting its 2026 global GDP forecast to 3.1%. Major Chinese export markets — including India, Southeast Asian nations, and the UAE — have seen sharp declines in projected import growth. Since nearly one-third of China's GDP growth in 2025 came from net exports, this drop in foreign demand threatens to further dampen China's economic momentum. Energy Disruptions: Over one-third of China's crude oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz annually. Since the war began, domestic gasoline prices in China have surged 39% and LNG prices by 42% — record increases surpassing even the spike following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, China is better insulated than most economies thanks to its massive strategic oil reserves (~1.4 billion barrels), diversified energy suppliers, heavy reliance on domestic coal, and comparatively high EV adoption rates. Supply Chain Challenges: Rising energy and commodity costs are squeezing Chinese manufacturers. Semiconductors face shortages of helium and naphtha; agriculture is being hit by soaring fertilizer and pesticide prices; and the plastics industry is under severe strain, with polypropylene prices rising 40% between February and mid-April. Investment Risks: The Middle East was China's top overseas investment destination in 2025, with over $26 billion committed. Iranian retaliatory strikes have already damaged Chinese-linked infrastructure, and ongoing instability threatens both existing and future Chinese investments across the region. In conclusion, while China is more resilient than many neighbors, the Iran War poses substantial short-term headwinds across multiple dimensions of its economy.

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24.

The War Against Time (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | china_indopacific | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The ongoing instability in the Gulf is creating systemic global risk by eroding energy and trade buffers, threatening macroeconomic stability across the Indo-Pacific. This immediate crisis distracts the United States from its core long-term strategic challenge: the economic and technological competition with China. While the U.S. gains some leverage in infrastructure, the article argues that Washington lacks a clear, predictable, and durable economic strategy to counter Beijing's methodical build-up of semiconductor and AI capacity. Policy must therefore prioritize developing a long-term economic competition framework that transcends crisis management and uses export controls with discipline to avoid accelerating Chinese indigenization.

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25.

Trendlines April 2026 Newsletter (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | economy | 2026-W18 | Topics: Middle East, Trade, Economy

The global economy is increasingly characterized by structural chokepoints—including physical trade routes, financial systems, and regulatory bottlenecks—rather than being solely dictated by single geopolitical crises. These concentrated points of pressure, such as those affecting fertilizer flows or international finance, are becoming fundamental features of global commerce. Consequently, the strategic focus for policymakers and businesses must shift from merely acknowledging these bottlenecks to actively identifying the specific supply chain vulnerabilities they reveal. Managing exposure to these structural chokepoints will be the defining factor in determining future economic advantage.

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26.

10 Charts to Explain Global Immunization Policy—Where the United States Stands (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | health | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Health

Global immunization efforts are facing significant setbacks due to a combination of conflict, declining public confidence, and weak health systems, threatening global health security. Evidence shows that the United States is experiencing measles outbreaks, while international support mechanisms like Gavi face funding uncertainty and political headwinds. For policy, the findings underscore the urgent need to reinforce both domestic public health messaging and stable international commitments to prevent outbreaks and maintain vaccine-preventable disease elimination status.

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27.

Expanding Access to Immunizations in the Americas | The Common Health Live! (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | health | 2026-W18 | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States, Health

The analysis emphasizes that immunization gains in the Americas, despite historical leadership, are fragile and vulnerable to setbacks, as evidenced by recent measles outbreaks and coverage drops following the pandemic. Sustaining high, equitable vaccine coverage (e.g., 95% for measles) requires continuous effort, particularly targeting unvaccinated pockets at the subnational level. Policy recommendations stress that successful disease prevention requires more than episodic campaigns; it demands sustained political will, predictable financing, and robust technical cooperation among regional bodies like PAHO. Therefore, regional strategies must prioritize strengthening health systems resilience and ensuring consistent vaccine procurement to prevent the loss of elimination status for vaccine-preventable diseases.

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28.

The European Union in the New Trade Disorder (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | economy | 2026-W18 | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States, Economy

Amid global trade fragmentation driven by US protectionism and China's export controls, the EU is proactively adapting by pursuing a 'de-risking' strategy to secure its economic future. Key evidence includes the rapid negotiation of landmark bilateral agreements (e.g., Mercosur, India, Indonesia), which go beyond tariff reduction to establish rules on critical minerals, climate, and labor rights. Strategically, this signals that the EU is solidifying its role as a major global trade hub, leveraging preferential agreements to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on external economic coercion. Policymakers should recognize that the EU's future strategy involves deepening its single market while using these strategic trade pacts to cement its influence in the new, multipolar trade order.

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29.

Strategic Landpower Dialogue: A Conversation with Major General Lars S. Lervik (CSIS)

2026-05-04 | defense | 2026-W18 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Defense

Major General Lervik argues that landpower is essential for deterrence, arguing that Norway's strategic location and the heightened threat from Russia necessitate a fundamental shift in defense posture. The key evidence for this change is the realization of Russia's aggressive capabilities, particularly following the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a unanimous parliamentary decision to more than double defense spending and significantly expand military capacity. Strategically, this mandates that the Norwegian Army focus on robust homeland defense while also taking greater responsibility for the entire Nordic region, thereby reinforcing NATO's collective security commitment in the face of geopolitical tension.

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30.

Beyond Venezuela and Cuba: The U.S. Military’s Future Operations in the Western Hemisphere (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | americas | 2026-W17 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States, Americas

The U.S. military's future focus in the Western Hemisphere is shifting from great power competition to combating transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), drug trafficking, and narco-terrorism. This pivot is evidenced by recent threat assessments that prioritize illicit border actors over state rivals, leading to increased joint military operations and intelligence sharing with regional allies. Strategically, the U.S. will continue to deepen military cooperation through joint training and counter-cartel campaigns. However, the article cautions that sustained success requires coupling these security efforts with broader diplomatic and economic initiatives to address local concerns regarding sovereignty and human rights.

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31.

Section 702: Why Do We Need It? (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | defense | 2026-W17 | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, United States, Defense

The article argues that Section 702 is an indispensable intelligence asset, crucial for thwarting modern threats including terrorism, cybercrime, and foreign espionage. Its effectiveness is evidenced by its proven ability to provide actionable intelligence on state and non-state actors, despite ongoing privacy concerns regarding U.S. persons' data. The report counters critics by highlighting the extraordinary oversight reforms already implemented, such as mandatory internal audits and national security nexus requirements. Therefore, the policy recommendation is a straightforward reauthorization of the program as is, avoiding restrictive changes like mandatory warrants that could severely hamper national security capabilities.

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32.

Unleashing Market Forces for Spectrum Use in Space (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | economy | 2026-W17 | Topics: Russia, United States, Economy

The article argues that current government-directed spectrum governance, particularly in space, is inherently inefficient and suppresses the economic potential of spectrum use. This inefficiency is driven by outdated rules (such as EPFD limits) designed to protect incumbent users, which create artificial barriers to innovation and efficient resource allocation. While the FCC's proposed rule changes represent a positive step toward modernization, the analysis concludes that truly optimizing spectrum requires a fundamental shift toward market-based mechanisms and legally strong property rights. Policy strategists must recognize that relying solely on regulatory frameworks will fail to match the efficiency of a market-driven system for maximizing resource productivity.

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33.

How to Interpret Wartime Oil Prices (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | energy | 2026-W17 | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States, Energy

The analysis argues that during major supply disruptions, the physical oil market (real barrels) is a more reliable indicator of true supply-demand imbalances than the financial 'paper' futures market. The current crisis is characterized as a 1970s-style supply shock, causing physical prices to diverge sharply from futures prices, which are masking the true scarcity. Policymakers must recognize that high physical prices reflect acute supply constraints, and relying on moderate futures prices can send false signals of market stability. Furthermore, broad government price interventions risk creating a moral hazard, potentially hindering necessary behavioral changes and slowing the energy recovery.

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34.

NATO’S Hidden Dividend and the Avoidable Cost of U.S. Withdrawal (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | economy | 2026-W17 | Topics: China, Europe, NATO, Russia, Trade, United States, Economy

The analysis argues that NATO functions as a powerful economic engine, generating a long-term trade premium of 12–27% among members, far exceeding its purely security mandate. This economic benefit is driven by institutional trust, standardized interoperability, and the deep integration of supply chains centered on U.S. platforms. Crucially, the report warns that U.S. withdrawal would impose massive, avoidable costs, including a projected 16.1% drop in U.S. exports and a 4% decline in U.S. GDP. Policymakers must recognize that maintaining the U.S. role as the central industrial hub is critical to preserving these compounding economic benefits and preventing a costly, slow-to-recover decoupling.

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35.

Governing Antarctica in 2026 (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | diplomacy | 2026-W17 | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, United States, Diplomacy

The article emphasizes that maintaining Antarctica as a peaceful scientific reserve requires urgent, coordinated international governance, particularly as tourism and climate change increase pressure on the continent. Key challenges highlighted include managing the rapidly growing number of visitors, protecting vulnerable species (like emperor penguins), and addressing cumulative environmental impacts. Policy strategies must therefore focus on strengthening the Antarctic Treaty system through enhanced transparency, improving data sharing via the Electronic Information Exchange System (EIES), and establishing comprehensive frameworks for non-governmental activities. Ultimately, effective governance depends on multilateral diplomacy and scientific cooperation to monitor global environmental changes and build trust among signatory nations.

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36.

Toward a Mature AI Economy: Policy Priorities for the Road Ahead (CSIS)

2026-04-27 | economy | 2026-W17 | Topics: AI, China, United States, Economy

The article argues that the AI economy has not matured and that sustained value will not come from merely improving existing processes, but from using AI as a catalyst for fundamental, innovative redesigns of entire workflows. As true operational costs become visible, current process-improvement models are likely to face margin compression, necessitating a shift toward high-margin, innovation-enabling business models. To facilitate this transition, policymakers must adopt an industry-specific regulatory approach, prioritize data privacy certainty, and invest heavily in upskilling the workforce. Ultimately, the focus of geopolitical competition should be on enabling scalable, innovative AI use rather than simply increasing AI capacity.

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37.

Can the United States Enable Post-Conflict Stability? (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | diplomacy | 2026-W15 | Topics: China, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Diplomacy

The analysis argues that achieving post-conflict stability requires the United States to adopt a comprehensive, coordinated strategy that extends far beyond military intervention. Key evidence highlights that current U.S. efforts often fail due to a lack of institutional coordination across agencies and a failure to empower local civil society, which is essential for lasting democratic transition. Policy implications stress the need to rebuild multi-agency partnerships, develop clear economic 'off-ramps' from sanctions to responsible investment, and prioritize foundational elements like food, water, and civil society engagement during the planning stages.

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38.

China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | tech | 2026-W15 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade, United States, Technology

China's high-tech drive has resulted in undeniable, though uneven, progress, significantly boosting its global innovation capacity and international influence. Key evidence includes China's rising Global Innovation Index ranking, surpassing the U.S. in R&D spending, and becoming a core leader in setting global mobile broadband standards. However, the analysis notes persistent weaknesses in institutional quality, advanced semiconductors, and complex manufacturing sectors like commercial aircraft. Strategically, the report advises that the U.S. should abandon a policy of consistent decoupling in favor of "calibrated coupling," while simultaneously strengthening coordination with like-minded global partners to maximize national security and economic benefits.

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39.

Pac Tech Pulse: April 2026 (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | tech | 2026-W15 | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade, Technology

Global AI governance is rapidly maturing, with major economies establishing comprehensive national standards for AI deployment across critical sectors. China is spearheading this effort by releasing detailed standards for humanoid robots and integrating AI across its entire economic plan, while regional players like Singapore and Vietnam are updating guidelines for use in healthcare and education. Strategically, the focus is shifting to energy infrastructure, with India and Australia mandating energy storage and setting strict standards for data centers. These developments signal that technological advancement is no longer sector-specific but is inextricably linked to mandatory grid modernization and sustainable power sources.

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40.

Can Gen Z Protests Reshape Governance in Africa? (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | africa | 2026-W15 | Topics: Africa

Gen Z-led protests across Africa represent a powerful, digitally mobilized force demanding a fundamental renegotiation of the social contract and the dismantling of elitist political structures. These movements are fueled by widespread youth frustration over corruption, economic stagnation, and poor service delivery, forcing some governments to make limited concessions. However, the analysis cautions that protests alone are insufficient for systemic change; lasting reform requires strategic political engagement and institutional reform. Policymakers must recognize that the key challenge is for activists to transition from mere resistance to actively building and sustaining new political and economic institutions.

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41.

Unpacking the $1.5 Trillion FY 2027 Defense Budget Topline (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | defense | 2026-W15 | Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, United States, Defense

The CSIS analysis details the Trump administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY 2027, representing a real increase of 38% over FY 2026 and setting a spending peak since WWII. This massive funding request, which relies heavily on mandatory reconciliation funds, is projected to significantly increase defense spending as a percentage of GDP. However, the report cautions that the high level of funding faces substantial political headwinds, requiring complex partisan maneuvering and legislative compromise. Strategically, while the spending is projected to peak in FY 2027, the analysis suggests that real spending levels are expected to decline significantly in the following fiscal year.

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42.

Reining in the Export Control Arms Race (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | china_indopacific | 2026-W15 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the use of export controls has dangerously shifted from a limited national security tool to a broad instrument of economic statecraft, fueling an escalating 'arms race' between the U.S. and China. Key evidence highlights how both nations have weaponized controls—using advanced chips, AI restrictions, and rare earths as bargaining chips in trade negotiations. This tit-for-tat escalation severely erodes the credibility and legitimacy of U.S. export controls, undermining their intended purpose of securing national interests. Policymakers must address this instability, as the current approach hinders multilateral cooperation and risks global economic stability.

Read at CSIS
43.

Preparing for the Consequences of Collapse in Cuba (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | economy | 2026-W15 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States, Economy

The analysis warns that Cuba faces an imminent humanitarian collapse driven by systemic economic failure and external pressures, particularly the U.S. oil blockade. Key evidence points to widespread poverty, severe food insecurity, and the crippling of vital infrastructure—including water, power, and healthcare—due to fuel shortages and sanctions. Consequently, the report argues that international policy must shift focus from purely pursuing regime change to proactively managing the humanitarian fallout. Preparing for this collapse requires international coordination to mitigate the ensuing chaos and address the dire needs of the Cuban population.

Read at CSIS
44.

What Are the Unintended Consequences of the U.S.-Iran Conflict for Defense and Security? (CSIS)

2026-04-12 | middle_east | 2026-W15 | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The CSIS analysis argues that the U.S.-Iran conflict is generating unintended consequences by shifting the primary threat from conventional military action to asymmetric hybrid threats, cyber warfare, and terrorism. Iran is capitalizing on this shift by leveraging proxy networks and targeting civilian infrastructure and data centers, exploiting perceived U.S. vulnerabilities in cyber defense and homeland security. Strategically, this necessitates that the U.S. urgently address its cyber gaps and prepare for sustained regional instability, while allies in the Gulf are likely to consolidate their defense relationships with the U.S. and Israel.

Read at CSIS
45.

Where Is the Space Force Budget for Commercial Services? (CSIS)

2026-04-09 | defense | 2026-W15 | Topics: United States

A new CSIS report finds the Space Force's proposed FY2027 budget significantly increases overall funding but allocates surprisingly little to non-launch commercial space services, despite repeated public endorsements of commercial integration. While Congress has historically supplemented Space Force requests with additional funding for these services, the current pattern signals a lack of commitment from the Space Force itself, potentially discouraging commercial investment and limiting access to vital capabilities like space domain awareness. The report argues that the Space Force needs to proactively budget for commercial services to ensure a sustainable market and shape future commercial development to meet military needs.

Read at CSIS
46.

Chile: New Directions and Uncertainty with a Strong Security Partner (CSIS)

2026-04-09 | americas | 2026-W15 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, United States

Following President Kast's inauguration, Chile is shifting towards a more security-focused approach, with the military taking on a larger role in border control and potentially urban security. The government plans to construct a border wall and trench system to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking, while also exploring military involvement in urban patrols. Despite positive assessments of Kast's security leadership team, challenges remain regarding resource allocation, personnel priorities, and navigating the complex interplay between military and civilian institutions.

Read at CSIS
47.

A Federal Statistical System for the Age of Economic Security (CSIS)

2026-03-29 | economy | 2026-W13 | Topics: Trade, United States, Economy

The U.S. federal statistical system, while remaining a global benchmark, faces critical strain from flat budgets, aging IT infrastructure, and declining survey response rates precisely when policymakers need data on emerging economic security challenges. The system remains oriented toward traditional macroeconomic management but lacks adequate coverage of technological competitiveness, supply chain vulnerabilities, and economic statecraft. A November 2025 CSIS workshop confirmed growing misalignment between available government statistics and actual policy and business needs across these domains. The report concludes that sustaining U.S. competitiveness and resilience requires explicitly redesigning the federal statistical system to prioritize economic security objectives alongside traditional macroeconomic functions. This will necessitate investments in IT infrastructure modernization, governance reform, and expanded data collection in critical security-related economic domains.

Read at CSIS
48.

The 850 Tomahawks Launched in Operation Epic Fury Is the Most Fired in a Single Campaign (CSIS)

2026-03-29 | defense | 2026-W13 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States, Defense

Operation Epic Fury has expended 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks—the largest single-campaign expenditure in U.S. naval history—depleting approximately half of available regional launchers at a cost of $3.6 million per missile. The Navy can only replenish 110 Tomahawks annually despite possessing low-3,000s stockpiles, and ships cannot reload at sea, requiring extended port maintenance. This accelerated depletion creates near-term strategic vulnerability for the United States in other theaters, particularly the Western Pacific, as inventory constraints may limit future military options and contingency response capacity.

Read at CSIS
49.

Qualified Infrastructure Authorization: A Blueprint for Faster, Smarter Federal Permitting (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | energy | 2026-W13 | Topics: AI, Climate, United States, Energy

A CSIS report advocates for Qualified Infrastructure Authorization (QIA) to overhaul the U.S. federal permitting system for energy infrastructure, critiquing the current process as overly procedural and delay-prone. QIA proposes a criteria-based approach, utilizing predefined standards, standardized monitoring, and a single, coordinated review process across multiple environmental statutes to accelerate project approvals. This framework aims to reduce current bottlenecks and redundancy by focusing on environmental outcomes and efficiency, rather than protracted procedural compliance. Implementing QIA would require congressional action to establish statutory authority, define eligibility, and authorize a lead agency for consolidated approvals. The initiative seeks to balance the urgent need for infrastructure development with robust environmental protection and public trust.

Read at CSIS
50.

Visualizing Iran’s Escalation Strategy (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | middle_east | 2026-W13 | Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

Iran's current conflict strategy marks a significant shift towards unrestrained retaliation against the U.S. and Israel, characterized by both horizontal and vertical escalation. This involves expanding the conflict geographically to 14 countries and targeting an increasingly diverse array of sites, including civilian infrastructure, within days of the conflict's onset. This aggressive approach aims to impose severe costs and deter future attacks, already leading to dramatic intensification. The ongoing escalation threatens further regional destabilization and global market disruption if a ceasefire is not achieved.

Read at CSIS
51.

Europe Needs Bold Economic Action in the Face of the Iran Shock (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | economy | 2026-W13 | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States, Economy

Europe must undertake bold and comprehensive economic action, including accelerating decarbonization, to mitigate the severe economic consequences of the Iran war and projected prolonged energy disruptions. Learning from past energy crises, the article advocates for a new fiscal package to incentivize electrification, support European manufacturing, and ensure collective financing for Ukraine. Key policy recommendations also include establishing a true European energy union with expedited grid modernization and renewable energy deployment, moving away from ad-hoc national responses towards a unified, financially robust approach for energy security and economic stability.

Read at CSIS
52.

AI and Global Food Security: A Focus on Crop Breeding (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | tech | 2026-W13 | Topics: AI, United States, Technology

AI-enabled technologies are set to transform crop breeding by accelerating the development of more resilient, higher-yielding, and nutritious crops essential for global food security. These advancements improve data management, enhance data collection and analysis, and provide novel genomic tools, addressing increasing food demand and ecological pressures. However, challenges such as unequal access to AI tools and genetic data, particularly in the Global South, and the need for aligned regulatory frameworks could hinder progress. To leverage AI's full potential, policymakers must support foundational sciences, build institutional capacity, establish coherent regulations, and promote global collaboration to ensure equitable deployment and long-term benefits for food systems.

Read at CSIS
53.

USMCA Review 2026: Six Scenarios for North America’s Future (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | economy | 2026-W13 | Topics: China, NATO, Trade, United States, Economy

The USMCA review faces an unlikely clean extension by July 1, 2026, amid three critical developments: the Supreme Court's IEEPA tariff ruling, Mexico's killing of cartel leader El Mencho, and escalating U.S. pressure on Canada. Most likely outcomes include a painful, extended negotiation with significant concessions; serial annual reviews without resolution; or a shift to bilateral agreements. Mexico must balance security delivery with domestic economic reforms to strengthen its negotiating position, while Canada diversifies trade partnerships to reduce U.S. leverage. Though a workable deal addressing China supply chains and enforcement is achievable without dismantling the trilateral framework, durable alignment requires all three nations to recognize their mutual interdependence rather than accept terms under political duress.

Read at CSIS
54.

Golden Insights: High-Quality Products Derived from Commercial Earth Observations (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | tech | 2026-W13 | Topics: AI, Technology

The CSIS report, "Golden Insights: High-Quality Products Derived from Commercial Earth Observations," emphasizes a critical market transition from raw Earth observation data to sophisticated, derived insights. This shift is driven by increased multi-source remote sensing data and advanced AI tools, which facilitate the rapid and scalable extraction of valuable information. The report outlines key factors for product value, customer buying centers, and evaluation metrics, aiming to establish a common language for producers and consumers. This initiative is designed to enhance customer satisfaction and accelerate growth across the commercial Earth observation sector, enabling diverse industries to leverage decision-ready products for improved market readiness and revenue.

Read at CSIS
55.

What the Total Energies Deal Means for Energy Investment, Political Risk, and Affordability (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | energy | 2026-W13 | Topics: Climate, Trade, United States, Energy

The Trump administration's $1 billion deal with TotalEnergies to abandon offshore wind development in favor of oil and gas investments is significant not for its immediate impact on offshore wind, but for establishing a precedent of executive action that bypasses Congress and courts to unwind private federal contracts. By compensating a company to abandon a federally approved project without clear statutory framework or legal process, the administration introduces political discretion into what was historically a rules-based investment environment, increasing political risk across industries dependent on federal leases. This shift threatens to raise capital costs for infrastructure projects and could slow deployment in critical sectors like mining and LNG that the administration aims to expand. The claimed benefits for domestic energy affordability are contradicted by the deal's mechanics: offshore wind would have provided needed capacity to constrained regional grids, while increased LNG exports would compete with domestic gas supply and potentially raise domestic energy prices.

Read at CSIS
56.

Trendlines March 2026 Newsletter (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | tech | 2026-W13 | Topics: Trade, Technology

The CSIS 'Trendlines March 2026 Newsletter' asserts that the global AI race is evolving beyond mere model breakthroughs and compute performance. It highlights that structural trends in global energy systems are converging with changes in capital markets, industrial policy, and technology diffusion, becoming crucial determinants for future AI leadership. The newsletter aims to provide data-driven insights to help decision-makers distinguish credible hypotheses from hype by connecting various research areas within CSIS. For policy and strategy, this suggests an imperative to consider the integrated impact of energy, economic, and industrial factors when addressing the future of AI.

Read at CSIS
57.

Assessing the Air Campaign After Three Weeks: Iran War By the Numbers (CSIS)

2026-03-28 | defense | 2026-W13 | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Defense

After three weeks, the air campaign in the Iran War shows a sustained U.S. strike tempo, adapted to use less expensive munitions, while Iranian drone and missile launches have significantly declined but persist, notably targeting Gulf states' energy facilities. Gulf allies report high interception rates of 80-90%, but their interceptor inventories are reportedly dwindling. The ongoing conflict signals continued regional instability, raising critical questions about Iran's remaining military capabilities and the potential for a U.S. military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Read at CSIS
58.

Using Minerals and Energy to Rebuild the U.S.-South Africa Relationship (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | africa | 2026-W12 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

This CSIS report argues that the U.S. must prioritize its mineral supply relationship with South Africa despite recent diplomatic friction to avoid losing strategic access to China and Russia. South Africa remains the dominant supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, and military-grade vanadium, which are indispensable for U.S. defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization. To counter the migration of processing capacity to China, the report recommends U.S. investment in South African energy infrastructure through LNG-to-power agreements and renewed nuclear cooperation. Establishing price floors for defense materials and pairing financing with long-term offtake agreements are seen as essential steps to securing these critical supply chains.

Read at CSIS
59.

Investing in National Assets for Quantum Commercialization (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | tech | 2026-W12 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, United States

The United States must significantly increase and sustain national investment in quantum information science and technology (QIST) to maintain its competitive edge against global rivals like China. The report identifies critical gaps in aging federal research facilities at NIST and the Department of Defense, alongside a lack of shared-use infrastructure like testbeds and foundries necessary for commercial prototyping. Strategic recommendations include establishing a long-term funding framework for tech infrastructure, creating an interconnected national network of regional quantum ecosystems, and providing stable government demand signals to encourage private sector R&D.

Read at CSIS
60.

How Does Saudi Arabia See the War with Iran? (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | middle_east | 2026-W12 | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

Saudi Arabia adopts a cautious and measured approach to the conflict with Iran, prioritizing its domestic economic and societal transformation over direct military escalation despite repeated Iranian provocations. While the Kingdom possesses the military capability to respond, it recognizes Iran's escalation dominance over vulnerable energy and desalination infrastructure, which makes the risk of a grinding war of attrition unacceptable. This stance suggests that Saudi Arabia will focus on securing more explicit defense commitments from the United States while remaining skeptical that the current conflict will lead to long-term regional stability or rapid normalization with Israel.

Read at CSIS
61.

Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | energy | 2026-W12 | Topics: China, Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

This CSIS report warns that while the U.S. possesses sufficient aggregate energy, regional infrastructure constraints in key industrial hubs could jeopardize the defense industrial base's ability to mobilize for a high-intensity conflict. The analysis highlights that critical production for materials like titanium, aluminum, and semiconductors is geographically concentrated in regions such as PJM and ERCOT, which face eroding reserve margins, surging data center demand, and natural gas deliverability risks. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, the authors recommend extending "Defense Critical Electric Infrastructure" designations to private industrial nodes and utilizing the Defense Production Act to expedite permitting and financing for energy assurance projects. Integrating energy resilience into defense supply chain risk assessments is essential to ensure that localized grid or pipeline failures do not paralyze wartime production schedules.

Read at CSIS
62.

States Weekly Newsletter: March 18, 2026 (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | economy | 2026-W12 | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade

This CSIS newsletter highlights significant policy shifts across Indian states, emphasizing expanded social safety nets and targeted industrial growth. Key developments include Kerala’s implementation of Universal Health Coverage, Tamil Nadu’s new policy for the animation and gaming sectors, and Maharashtra’s establishment of an MSME Commissionerate. These legislative actions reflect a broader trend of state-level autonomy in driving economic modernization, improving public health access, and regulating social issues like inter-caste marriage and religious conversion. Collectively, these initiatives suggest that subnational governance remains the primary engine for implementing structural reforms and addressing infrastructure demands in India.

Read at CSIS
63.

Abracadabra (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | economy | 2026-W12 | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

William A. Reinsch argues that the global economy is facing extreme uncertainty driven by erratic U.S. tariff policies and the economic fallout from a conflict in the Middle East. The war has disrupted approximately 20% of global oil and gas supplies, leading to price spikes and threatening essential manufacturing supply chains in Asia and the West. The author contends that the administration's tactical, 'rinse and repeat' approach lacks a coherent strategy to address these interconnected crises. Consequently, the resulting climate of unpredictability discourages investment and risks a significant global economic slowdown as the fragility of key energy-producing regions is exposed.

Read at CSIS
64.

Government as a Demand Creator for the Quantum Industry (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | tech | 2026-W12 | Topics: AI, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

This CSIS report argues that the U.S. government must transition from a mere R&D funder to a strategic 'demand creator' to help the quantum industry bridge the 'valley of death' between research and commercial deployment. The authors highlight that high technical uncertainty and long development timelines have left private investment insufficient, particularly when compared to the massive capital flows into AI. To overcome this, the report recommends institutionalizing guaranteed purchase commitments—modeled after Operation Warp Speed—and utilizing flexible contracting mechanisms to provide the market certainty needed to scale quantum computing, sensing, and networking infrastructure.

Read at CSIS
65.

SBIR and STTR Reauthorization and the Future of Small Business Innovation (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | tech | 2026-W12 | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, United States

The U.S. Congress has reauthorized the SBIR and STTR programs through 2031 via the Small Business Innovation and Economic Security Act, ending a six-month funding lapse that threatened the startup ecosystem. The legislation introduces structural reforms, such as 'strategic breakthrough awards' of up to $30 million, specifically designed to help small businesses bridge the 'valley of death' between prototype development and commercial deployment. These updates also mandate stricter due diligence regarding foreign ownership and improved data collection to ensure federal R&D investments effectively bolster the U.S. industrial base and national security. Ultimately, the reauthorization seeks to convert domestic technological innovation into long-term strategic advantages amidst rising global competition.

Read at CSIS
66.

Chicago’s Emerging Quantum Innovation Cluster (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | tech | 2026-W12 | Topics: Trade, United States

Chicago is rapidly establishing itself as a premier global hub for quantum technology, leveraging a robust ecosystem of world-class universities, Department of Energy national laboratories, and significant state investment. The region's growth is supported by major initiatives like the Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park and the Duality accelerator, which attract global firms and foster multi-sector collaboration. Future development will focus on expanding the quantum workforce and strengthening supply chains to accelerate the commercialization of research and reinforce Chicago's position as a leading center for innovation.

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67.

CSIS Names Thamar Harrigan Chief of Staff of the Economic Security and Technology Department (CSIS)

2026-03-19 | economy | 2026-W12 | Topics: Trade, United States

CSIS has appointed Thamar Harrigan as the Chief of Staff and Director of Operations for its Economic Security and Technology Department. Harrigan brings extensive experience from the U.S. Trade and Development Agency and a background in international trade law to help drive the department's strategic and programmatic priorities. This leadership addition is intended to enhance the department's operational capacity and sharpen its research outputs on global markets and advanced technologies. The move strengthens CSIS's ability to provide practical policy solutions at the critical intersection of economic security and technological competition.

Read at CSIS
68.

Russia-Ukraine War in 10 Charts (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | defense | 2026-W09 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Marking the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion, this analysis highlights that Russia’s military efforts have devolved into a slow-moving war of attrition characterized by unprecedented casualties (1.2 million) and a stagnating economy. Despite minimal territorial gains, Russia has intensified its drone campaign, while Ukraine faces a staggering $588 billion reconstruction challenge and a vulnerable centralized energy grid. Crucially, the financial burden of military support is shifting from the U.S. to Europe, requiring new procurement mechanisms like the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) to sustain Ukraine’s defense.

Read at CSIS
69.

Revitalizing U.S.-Pacific Ties Through Kava Diplomacy (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | economy | 2026-W09 | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

This report argues that kava trade offers a strategic 'trade, not aid' pathway for the United States to revitalize relations with Pacific Island nations following the dismantling of USAID. With the global kava market valued at up to $3 billion, the crop represents a vital economic engine for major exporters like Fiji and Vanuatu. The authors recommend leveraging the Millennium Challenge Corporation and Development Finance Corporation to address structural barriers, including agricultural financing gaps and climate-related infrastructure needs. By fostering these niche commercial ties, Washington can reinforce its strategic presence and support Pacific-led development goals in a geopolitically contested region.

Read at CSIS
70.

The Russia-Ukraine War and Global Food Security: Impacts Four Years Later (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | diplomacy | 2026-W09 | Topics: Climate, Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine's grain exports remain 35% below pre-war levels due to extensive landmine contamination, destroyed irrigation infrastructure, and acute labor shortages. While Russia initially surged to dominate 22% of the global wheat market by weaponizing appropriated Ukrainian land and infrastructure, its own production is now threatened by adverse weather and a shrinking agricultural workforce. Despite a decline from the 2022 price peak, global food security remains fragile as the war continues to suppress the output of a top producer, limiting the market's ability to absorb future shocks. Strategic recovery for Ukraine necessitates rapid EU integration, modernization of decentralized export logistics, and enhanced maritime defense to secure Black Sea trade routes.

Read at CSIS
71.

Assessing Xi’s Unprecedented Purges of China’s Military: Key Developments and Potential Implications (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | defense | 2026-W09 | Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Xi Jinping has conducted an unprecedented purge of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), removing over 100 senior officers and nearly decapitating the Central Military Commission to ensure absolute political loyalty. This campaign has created a significant leadership void, with approximately 52% of top positions impacted, severely undermining the PLA's near-term readiness for complex military operations like a Taiwan invasion. While the purges disrupt immediate capabilities, they enable Xi to replace the 'old guard' with a younger, more technically literate generation of 'intelligentized' officers. Long-term implications include a potentially more aggressive military that is ideologically subservient, though at a heightened risk of strategic miscalculation due to the suppression of realistic operational advice.

Read at CSIS
72.

Four Years of the War in Ukraine (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | defense | 2026-W09 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Four years after Russia's invasion, the conflict has evolved into a long-term war of attrition that requires a transition from short-term aid to a generational strategy for European security. Despite significant casualties and sanctions, Russia has maintained its war effort through economic ties with China and the Global South, while Ukraine has successfully shifted toward deeper defense industrial cooperation with European partners. Experts suggest that because Russia's maximalist goals remain unchanged, Western policymakers must prepare for a multiyear struggle focused on conventional deterrence and cautious escalation management.

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73.

China’s Carriers Increasingly Venture Beyond the First Island Chain (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | defense | 2026-W09 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific

China's People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly advancing its 'blue-water' capabilities, marked by a significant increase in aircraft carrier operations beyond the first island chain. In 2025, the Liaoning and Shandong carriers spent a record 58 days in the Western Pacific, conducting approximately 1,680 sorties and their first simultaneous deployment in the region. This trend signals a strategic shift toward sustained power projection far from Chinese shores, directly challenging established maritime security dynamics. Consequently, regional and global actors must reassess their naval strategies to account for the PLAN's growing reach and operational complexity.

Read at CSIS
74.

The Supreme Court’s IEEPA Tariff Ruling and What Comes Next (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | society | 2026-W09 | Topics: China, Europe, Trade, United States

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, asserting that taxation power is reserved exclusively for Congress. While the ruling creates a significant legal hurdle for executive trade authority, the administration is already seeking to reimpose tariffs through alternative statutes like Section 122 and Section 232. The decision triggers a massive $170 billion refund process for businesses and potentially weakens the U.S. negotiating position by undermining previous trade concessions forced by the now-invalidated IEEPA tariffs.

Read at CSIS
75.

States Weekly: February 25, 2026 (CSIS)

2026-02-26 | other | 2026-W09 | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade

This update outlines significant legislative and policy changes across several Indian states, highlighting Maharashtra's new climate finance strategy and Kerala's ambitious 2026 IT policy aimed at tripling IT space. Key developments include Gujarat's expansion of health insurance coverage to 27 million citizens and amendments to labor laws allowing women to work night shifts. These measures reflect a decentralized approach to addressing climate change, digital infrastructure, and social welfare, with direct implications for regional economic competitiveness and public service delivery in India.

Read at CSIS
76.

EST Rapid Roundup: How Will the Supreme Court’s IEEPA Ruling Impact U.S.-China Tech Competition? (CSIS)

2026-02-24 | economy | 2026-W09 | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The Supreme Court's 2026 ruling that the IEEPA does not authorize presidential tariffs has upended U.S. trade policy, forcing an immediate shift to alternative authorities and creating significant legal uncertainty for $150 billion in revenues. CSIS experts argue that while this provides China with a tactical and propaganda advantage ahead of upcoming summits, it compels Congress to reclaim its constitutional role in defining a more strategic and stable trade framework. The analysis highlights that reliance on coercive tariffs alone has failed to curb the overall trade deficit or effectively reindustrialize the U.S., instead increasing costs for critical energy and technology supply chains. Consequently, the panel recommends a policy pivot toward a 'positive agenda' that prioritizes domestic innovation, infrastructure, and allied cooperation over blunt import substitution.

Read at CSIS
77.

EST Rapid Roundup: What Comes Next for U.S. Trade Policy After the Supreme Court’s IEEPA Ruling? (CSIS)

2026-02-24 | economy | 2026-W09 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize presidential tariffs, reaffirming that the power to tax resides with Congress. While this decision curtails broad executive trade authority, the administration is pivoting to alternative statutes like Section 122 and Section 301 to sustain its protectionist agenda, albeit with more procedural hurdles. The ruling necessitates a complex refund process for $160 billion in collected revenues, yet experts warn that persistent policy volatility will continue to create an 'uncertainty tax' on global investment and supply chains.

Read at CSIS
78.

Trump Discovers Multilateralism (CSIS)

2026-02-22 | diplomacy | 2026-W08 | Topics: China, Europe, Trade, United States

The Trump administration's proposed Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) represents a rare shift toward multilateralism, aimed at securing critical mineral supply chains through a 'preferential trade zone' with enforceable price floors. This initiative reflects a recognition that the U.S. cannot solve its dependency on China alone, though its success depends on whether the administration can treat partners as equals rather than targets for leverage. While significant, FORGE likely remains a pragmatic exception driven by economic necessity rather than a fundamental abandonment of 'America First' unilateralism.

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79.

United States and Iran on the Brink: What's at Stake? (CSIS)

2026-02-22 | diplomacy | 2026-W08 | Topics: AI, China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The U.S. and Iran face a volatile '50/50' chance of either military conflict or a symbolic diplomatic framework as an unprecedented U.S. military build-up meets low-trust negotiations in Geneva. While the Trump administration seeks a high-profile declaration of victory, Iran demands a formal negotiated text to ensure sanctions relief amid internal social unrest and Israeli pressure for preemption. Gulf states are actively mediating to avoid a regional war that would jeopardize their multi-billion dollar transitions into global AI and digital hubs. Consequently, any tactical miscalculation, particularly involving proxies like the Houthis, could trigger a wider entanglement with severe global economic and security repercussions.

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80.

If Trump Strikes Iran: Mapping the Oil Disruption Scenarios (CSIS)

2026-02-22 | diplomacy | 2026-W08 | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

This CSIS analysis maps four potential oil supply disruption scenarios resulting from a possible U.S. military strike against Iran, warning that Tehran's current vulnerability may drive it to target regional energy infrastructure as a last resort. The report details how direct attacks on Arab Gulf facilities could push global oil prices above $130 per barrel, particularly as bypass routes for the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly limited in capacity. These dynamics present a strategic dilemma for the Trump administration, where escalating military pressure could trigger a global energy crisis or a 'use it or lose it' miscalculation by Iranian leadership.

Read at CSIS
81.

States Weekly: February 18, 2026 (CSIS)

2026-02-22 | other | 2026-W08 | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade

This report highlights a surge in state-level policy initiatives across India, focusing on healthcare decentralization, industrial specialization, and administrative reform. Key developments include Haryana’s block-level mental health scheme, Kerala’s strategic Graphene Policy, and Maharashtra’s efforts to streamline land conversion and public-private partnerships. These actions suggest that Indian states are increasingly taking the lead in creating tailored regulatory environments to address local needs and foster innovation. Such trends underscore the importance of subnational governance in shaping India's broader economic and social policy landscape.

Read at CSIS
82.

Transnistria: A Conflict Unfrozen but Not Thawed (CSIS)

2026-02-22 | diplomacy | 2026-W08 | Topics: Cybersecurity, Europe, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The 'frozen conflict' in Transnistria has reached a critical turning point as Russia's loss of energy leverage and Moldova's EU trajectory create a unique three-year window for full reintegration. Since the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine in early 2025, Transnistria’s subsidized economy has faced collapse, shifting the balance of power toward Chisinau and exposing the fragility of Russian patronage. Successful reintegration will require Moldova to implement a comprehensive roadmap for security vetting and legal harmonization, supported by international diplomatic pressure for Russian troop withdrawal and EU financial aid to manage the transition to market-rate energy.

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