The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
A Federal Statistical System for the Age of Economic Security
English Summary
The U.S. federal statistical system, while remaining a global benchmark, faces critical strain from flat budgets, aging IT infrastructure, and declining survey response rates precisely when policymakers need data on emerging economic security challenges. The system remains oriented toward traditional macroeconomic management but lacks adequate coverage of technological competitiveness, supply chain vulnerabilities, and economic statecraft. A November 2025 CSIS workshop confirmed growing misalignment between available government statistics and actual policy and business needs across these domains. The report concludes that sustaining U.S. competitiveness and resilience requires explicitly redesigning the federal statistical system to prioritize economic security objectives alongside traditional macroeconomic functions. This will necessitate investments in IT infrastructure modernization, governance reform, and expanded data collection in critical security-related economic domains.
中文摘要
美國聯邦統計系統儘管仍是全球基準，但在決策者亟需新興經濟安全挑戰數據之際，卻面臨預算持平、IT基礎設施老化以及調查回應率下降的嚴峻壓力。該系統仍側重於傳統宏觀經濟管理，但對技術競爭力、供應鏈脆弱性和經濟治國方略的覆蓋不足。2025年11月舉行的一場戰略與國際研究中心（CSIS）研討會證實，在這些領域，現有政府統計數據與實際政策和商業需求之間存在日益加劇的不一致。報告總結指出，要維持美國的競爭力和韌性，需要明確重新設計聯邦統計系統，使其在傳統宏觀經濟職能之外，優先考慮經濟安全目標。這將需要對IT基礎設施現代化、治理改革以及在關鍵安全相關經濟領域擴大數據收集進行投資。
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