The article argues that China's unprecedented economic liberalization has forced the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to fundamentally diverge from strict Marxist ideology. Key evidence points to the early 1980s, when the rapid growth of private enterprise and the surge in rural incomes prompted high-ranking officials to observe the socio-economic changes through the lens of Marxist theory. This suggests that the CCP's current governance model is a pragmatic synthesis of state control and market capitalism, prioritizing economic growth and stability over ideological purity. For policy makers, this implies that China's strategic focus remains on maintaining economic momentum, potentially leading to continued internal tension between market forces and traditional socialist doctrine.
2026-W13
This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that U.S. involvement in the conflict with Iran, despite initial differences from past wars, is setting the stage for a strategic quagmire. The core concern is that Washington is engaging a regional power without establishing clear objectives, a defined theory of victory, or a viable exit strategy. This lack of strategic clarity suggests that the U.S. risks becoming entangled in a protracted and difficult conflict. Policymakers must recognize this pattern to avoid repeating the mistakes of previous, ill-defined foreign interventions.
-
3.
The article challenges the widely accepted historical narrative that the Boston Tea Party was a protest against heavy taxation. It argues that this understanding is inaccurate, noting that the British government's intent regarding the tea duties was actually to lower, not raise, the tariffs. This revisionist perspective suggests that historical analysis of American resistance and economic policy must be re-evaluated. The finding implies that the relationship between taxation and political conflict is more complex than previously assumed, requiring a deeper understanding of colonial trade dynamics.
-
4.
China has strategically positioned Southeast Asia as a core focus of its geoeconomic expansion, utilizing initiatives like the Maritime Silk Road (BRI). Evidence of this deep integration includes the region attracting $126 billion in Chinese investment over the last decade, making it China's largest trading partner as of 2020. While this relationship drives significant regional growth, the intense economic dependency and strategic focus suggest that Southeast Asian nations are increasingly subject to Beijing's influence. Policy implications suggest that external powers must monitor the rising geopolitical pressure and potential for economic coercion stemming from this deep Chinese integration.
-
5.
Following the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the threat of Iranian instability has escalated significantly. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force has issued explicit warnings, suggesting that the region will no longer be safe for adversaries. This heightened rhetoric is coupled with reports of operatives acting at Iran’s behest being tied to various plots. Policymakers must treat the current environment as one of extreme alert, anticipating increased proxy-driven terrorism and instability across the region.
-
6.
Since 2020, Russia has aggressively expanded its geopolitical footprint in the Sahel, seizing the strategic initiative from traditional Western powers like France and the U.S. Moscow has capitalized on deep regional instability and popular discontent by supporting successive coups in nations including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This strategy allows Russia to project power and signal a degree of operational freedom despite international isolation following the Ukraine conflict. For policymakers, this indicates that Russia is utilizing the Sahel as a key theater to challenge Western influence and reshape regional security dynamics.
-
7.
The article argues that the concept of 'authoritarian stability' in the Middle East is a myth, suggesting that regional regimes are inherently volatile and subject to external manipulation. The analysis uses Donald Trump's contradictory statements regarding Iran and his comparison of regime changes (e.g., Venezuela) as evidence that major powers view the region through a lens of transactional autocracy replacement. This suggests that external interventions are less about promoting stability and more about managing the transition from one powerful regime to another. Policymakers must therefore anticipate instability and the continued use of proxy conflicts, rather than assuming predictable, stable governance structures.
-
8.
The article argues that the current geopolitical relationship between the United States and China, particularly under potential Trump administration dynamics, exhibits dangerous parallels to the pre-World War I era. By drawing comparisons to 1914, the analysis suggests that escalating, localized tensions—such as trade disputes or regional flashpoints—are accumulating systemic risk among great powers. The key reasoning is that minor disagreements are being allowed to harden into structural rivalries, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation. Policymakers must therefore prioritize de-escalation strategies and multilateral frameworks to prevent a manageable competition from spiraling into a global, catastrophic conflict.
-
9.
The article critiques the political deployment of "flexible realism" as a rhetorical device used to legitimize foreign policy actions. While acknowledging that realism correctly identifies power as the core currency of international politics, the piece argues that this framing often serves to mask underlying instability or recklessness. Policymakers should view such claims of pragmatic flexibility with skepticism, recognizing that oversimplifying complex geopolitical realities under the guise of pure power politics can lead to strategic miscalculation.
-
10.
The analysis argues that conventional metrics of conflict—such as military damage or losses—are insufficient for assessing Iran's true position. Instead, the critical measure is whether Tehran is successfully achieving its long-term strategic objectives. Despite suffering significant conventional blows from adversaries, the article posits that Iran is strategically succeeding due to careful preparation and planning. Policymakers must therefore shift focus from immediate military assessments to understanding Iran's enduring strategic resilience and geopolitical aims in the region.
-
11.
The analysis argues that the transatlantic relationship is strained by US unilateralism, challenging Europe's traditional posture of submission. Key evidence suggests that Europe's history of bending the knee to Washington has been detrimental, while recent acts of collective self-assertion—such as rejecting US pressure over Greenland or denying base access during the Iran crisis—have proven more effective. For policy, the findings imply that Europe must abandon reactive submission and instead prioritize internal cohesion, energy transition, and unified policy stances. This strategic shift is necessary for Europe to build genuine leverage and reduce its structural dependence on US protection.
-
12.
The article argues that military conflict is a profoundly costly undertaking, requiring more than mere political rhetoric or public relations campaigns to justify. For the immense moral and material costs of war to be acceptable, the action must be underpinned by a clear, achievable strategy. Strategy, in this context, is defined as a concrete plan by which military power can reliably produce a desired political outcome. The core finding is that any intervention lacking strategic coherence risks escalating costs and failing to achieve its stated goals. Policymakers must therefore ensure that military force is always tied to a disciplined, measurable plan to avoid strategic failure.
-
13.
The article argues that the United States is fundamentally changing its approach to economic statecraft, moving beyond traditional sanctions and export controls. This shift is evidenced by actions like the seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers on the high seas, which blurs the historical distinction between purely economic coercion and military action. Previously, Washington maintained a clear line between sanctions and naval blockades; however, this new integrated approach allows the U.S. to deploy military-adjacent force to achieve economic objectives. This trend signals a more aggressive and ambiguous form of power projection, complicating international law and escalating the risk of conflict in non-traditional theaters.
-
14.
The article argues that the conflict in Iran is likely to escalate into a protracted war, potentially mirroring the dynamics of the war in Ukraine. Initial US and Israeli military actions against Iran were predicated on the assumption that a swift, decisive strike would neutralize the regime and stabilize the situation, especially given failed nuclear talks and concerns over Iran's missile arsenal. However, the analysis suggests this assumption of a quick resolution is flawed, implying that the conflict will become a complex, long-term strategic challenge requiring significant policy adjustments.
-
15.
Amid escalating costs, discussions of a potential cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran have emerged. The Trump administration has temporarily paused aggressive actions, such as threats against power plants, to allow for negotiation. The U.S. has submitted a 15-point plan via Pakistani intermediaries, which the article characterizes as essentially demanding unconditional surrender from Iran. This indicates that any diplomatic path toward a ceasefire is currently predicated on Iran accepting highly restrictive terms, suggesting a difficult and asymmetrical negotiation environment.
-
16.
RAND Europe forecasts that the UK Armed Forces community will undergo significant demographic shifts through 2045, with veteran numbers declining from 1.73 million (2025) to 1.06 million due to aging WWII and National Service generations, while the regular force remains stable at approximately 130,000-135,000 personnel. Using a sophisticated 'stocks-and-flows' population projection methodology applied to Ministry of Defence and Census data, the analysis demonstrates that despite smaller overall size, the community will become increasingly gender and ethnically diverse, with a higher proportion of working-age veterans requiring different support services. These findings carry important implications for defense policy and social support provision, requiring service providers to rebalance resources from age-related care toward employment, childcare, and mental health services while ensuring accessibility for a more diverse and intergenerational population.
-
17.
This RAND report provides the first comprehensive estimate of the UK Armed Forces bereaved community—over 100,000 people annually as of 2025—including partners, children, and service personnel/veterans who have lost family members. Using Ministry of Defence mortality data and Bayesian forecasting methods, the study estimates that partners bereaved of veterans comprise the largest group (53,100 annually), while the overall bereaved population will decline by 2045 due to aging demographics. The research highlights critical data gaps and emphasizes that a major conflict would substantially increase bereaved family members in younger age groups, fundamentally altering support needs. Support providers must prepare for demographic shifts and recognize the bereaved as a vital but historically overlooked part of the Armed Forces community requiring targeted long-term services.
-
18.
The U.S. Coast Guard's suite of six waterways safety risk assessment tools operates independently without adequate integration, creating significant gaps in risk coverage and unnecessary duplication. Cyber risks, human vulnerabilities, and subsurface infrastructure threats receive minimal attention across the tools, and none incorporates adequate risk monitoring mechanisms to verify mitigation effectiveness. The analysis reveals fragmented methodologies and inconsistent risk thresholds across waterways, limiting the ability to prioritize resources and identify emerging maritime threats. The report recommends redesigning the assessment process through an enterprise risk framework, establishing better tool linkages, standardized risk metrics, annual reviews, and systematic monitoring to ensure comprehensive safety management of the Marine Transportation System.
-
19.Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative (RAND)
Pima County's Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative is a permanent supportive housing program targeting justice-involved adults experiencing homelessness and behavioral health challenges. The evaluation found that among 86 program participants with complete data, criminal justice involvement fell 35% after enrollment, total criminal justice events declined 58%, and average costs per participant decreased 46% ($10,450 to $5,657). However, substantial implementation challenges limit the program's reach: only 43 of 126 participants enrolled during the evaluation period were placed in permanent supportive housing due to limited affordable housing and voucher freezes that extended wait times from 5 to 9 months. The findings suggest permanent supportive housing shows promise for breaking cycles of incarceration and homelessness, but policymakers must address systemic barriers through improved data integration, stronger evaluation methods, and expanded housing resources to maximize impact and reach the significant unmet demand.
-
20.
This technical documentation describes the American School District Panel's (ASDP) fall 2025 methodology refresh, expanding the survey frame from pre-selected districts to all 12,274 U.S. public school districts, with 345 responding (2.8% response rate). The weighting process was revised to account for nonresponse bias rather than selection probability, using district enrollment, geographic, demographic, and poverty data from federal sources to create nationally representative weights. These methodological improvements ensure that the ASDP—a biannual survey of K-12 school district leaders—produces reliable insights into district-level education policy priorities and challenges.
-
21.Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications (RAND)
The report synthesizes diverse AGI forecasting methodologies and finds that multiple independent approaches—expert surveys, prediction markets, and compute-centric models—show convergent evidence toward earlier AGI timelines, with many clustering in the 2030s, driven by rapid scaling of compute resources and capital investment. However, forecasting infrastructure remains immature with significant limitations: benchmarks saturate quickly, influential models lack independent validation, and reasonable experts fundamentally disagree about whether scaling existing architectures will suffice, how rapidly capabilities will diffuse economically, and whether AI-driven research acceleration will compress timelines. The report identifies three core empirical cruxes—capability sufficiency, diffusion speed, and takeoff dynamics—that generate distinct expert positions, with disagreement persisting despite shared information. Rather than betting on specific timelines, decisionmakers should pursue scenario-robust strategies emphasizing technical expertise, evaluation infrastructure, and monitoring systems while keying different policy responses to observable triggers across domains. Strengthening forecasting through independent model validation, continuous capability measurement, and real-time monitoring of AI's role in research advancement would better position policymakers to manage uncertainty across the range of plausible futures.
-
22.Achieving Combat Sortie Generation Proficiency in the Air Force: An Examination of Goals, Gaps, Barriers, and Solutions (RAND)
RAND research identifies critical gaps in U.S. Air Force combat sortie generation proficiency—the ability to rapidly recover, refuel, rearm, and launch aircraft under combat conditions. Through expert interviews, literature review, and proficiency modeling, the authors find that current training practices vary inconsistently across units and fall far short of what Agile Combat Employment doctrine demands, particularly for rapid response to high-threat missile scenarios. Key barriers include lack of standardized training requirements, insufficient training frequency (units practicing hot integrated combat turns semi-annually when monthly or more is needed), resource constraints, personnel shortages, and organizational friction between operations and maintenance. The report recommends establishing formal CSG training requirements (similar to the Ready Aircrew Program), implementing standardized proficiency metrics, improving operational-maintenance coordination to resolve conflicts with flying hour programs, and addressing long-term personnel experience imbalances. Without systematic intervention, the Air Force will struggle to generate combat power at the speed and scale required for peer conflict.
-
23.Internet Cutoff Switches as a Local Emergency Response for Damaging Artificial Intelligence Incidents (RAND)
This RAND report examines internet cutoff switches as emergency containment tools for damaging AI incidents in data centers. The analysis reveals a critical market failure: without liability for external damages, data center operators would rationally delay activating cutoffs to preserve revenue, even as AI escape risk grows exponentially. The authors conclude that three policy mechanisms are essential: assigning operators liability for catastrophic external damages, ensuring they understand cutoff use provides liability protection, and potentially compensating lost revenue to align private profit incentives with public risk management.
-
24.
The report argues that the U.S. Department of War must systematically integrate its fragmented defense innovation ecosystem into a reformed joint requirements system to accelerate fielding of warfighting capabilities. Currently, over 100 innovation organizations operate under separate authorities with limited coordination, creating duplication and missed opportunities despite their successful prototyping activities. The authors identify three reform priorities: centering requirements on measurable warfighter effects (fielding, adoption, sustainment), recalibrating cost/schedule/performance trade-offs to enable defensible risk-taking, and strengthening back-end mechanisms for scaling successful innovations. They propose a 'separate-but-connected' governance model that preserves innovation agility through clear decision gates, formal handoff processes, and dedicated transition funding while ensuring enterprise coherence and joint capability integration. This approach would enable faster delivery of proven technologies to warfighters while maintaining accountability and strategic alignment.
-
25.
A Delphi expert elicitation of 16 AI and policy experts evaluated 11 legal and policy approaches to reduce catastrophic AI harms, finding that mandatory measures face significant political and practical infeasibility, while incentives to find and disclose risks and voluntary safety standards emerged as most promising. Experts rated nearly all categories as desirable but questioned feasibility in the current U.S. political environment, with effectiveness varying substantially by actor type—highest for AI developers (3.3 average), lower for nonmalicious users (3.0), and lowest for malicious users (2.3). The most viable approaches require no federal government involvement and can be implemented through industry commitments and state-level action, including structured bug bounty programs, legal safe harbors for researchers, and coordinated vulnerability disclosure processes. Rather than waiting for comprehensive federal legislation, policymakers should pursue incremental, near-term measures that foster transparency through developer incentives and establish voluntary standards as scaffolding for future mandatory requirements. The analysis reflects growing skepticism about traditional regulatory approaches in the AI domain, with experts increasingly viewing private-sector and state-level action as more feasible pathways for near-term risk mitigation.
-
26.Standards-Aligned Instructional Materials Use and Science Practices in K–12 Schools: Findings from the Spring 2025 American Instructional Resources Survey (RAND)
K-12 science teachers are significantly less likely to use standards-aligned instructional materials (10-24% adoption) compared to ELA and math teachers (49-66%), driven by a critical shortage of quality-rated science curricula and greater teacher autonomy in material selection. The supply gap is stark: only 2-5 green-rated science materials are available per grade level versus 26-35 for ELA/math, forcing many teachers to rely on self-created or unvetted materials. While science teachers using standards-aligned materials report greater student engagement in recommended science and engineering practices, they also perceive these materials as too challenging and routinely modify them, potentially reducing implementation fidelity. Expanding the supply of rated science curricula, establishing district-level guidance on material adoption, and providing professional development on standards-aligned instruction could address these systemic gaps and improve science achievement nationally.
-
27.
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, effectively blocking maritime traffic to near-zero levels. Despite ongoing U.S. military campaigns, Iran maintains defiance with 5,000-6,000 mines and asymmetric naval capabilities, making military escorts prohibitively risky and potentially counterproductive to market confidence. Strategic petroleum reserve releases will only offset 7% of the 15-17% supply loss, while sustained market recovery requires the broader military conflict to end—a timeline neither the U.S. nor Iran controls.
-
28.
The Declaration of Independence's phrase 'we hold these truths to be self-evident' established an empirical, rationalist foundation for democratic governance rather than a religious one—a philosophical distinction that shaped how America justified itself to the world. Since 1776, the Declaration has evolved from a legal independence document into a foundational text wielded by abolitionists, civil rights leaders, and freedom movements to hold the nation accountable to its stated principles of universal equality and self-governance. Today's crisis of polarization and institutional erosion threatens this shared framework, as citizens increasingly operate from incompatible versions of empirical reality, undermining the factual consensus that evidence-based policymaking and democratic deliberation require. Rebuilding institutions that translate scientific discovery into public policy and restoring commitment to shared empirical truth is essential for democratic functioning. The Declaration's assertion that all governments require justification based on facts and universal principles—not merely power—remains extraordinarily radical and directly applicable to contemporary challenges of authoritarianism and democratic backsliding.
-
29.
The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, created in 2007 to encourage public service employment, remained largely ineffective for over a decade due to administrative dysfunction, but Biden-era reforms transformed it into a substantial benefit program that has forgiven nearly $91 billion to 1.2 million borrowers as of January 2026. However, PSLF's design creates unintended consequences: it disproportionately benefits higher-earning graduate borrowers like physicians rather than lower-income workers, and interactions with other policies (generous income-driven repayment plans and unlimited graduate borrowing) dramatically increased costs beyond initial estimates. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will reduce program generosity through lower loan limits and repayment plan changes, while ongoing litigation-related administrative backlogs continue to burden borrowers and federal administration. The fundamental issue is that PSLF's interaction with the broader student loan ecosystem was not fully anticipated, creating problematic incentives around borrowing costs and raising questions about whether sector-based subsidies efficiently achieve public service employment goals.
-
30.
Since the pandemic, Americans rank affordability as their top concern, with costs for healthcare, housing, groceries, and utilities rising substantially faster than the 30.8% wage growth experienced. Healthcare costs have surged most dramatically—worker insurance contributions jumped 308% while wages rose only 119%, and median home purchase ages have jumped from 30 to 40 years as housing costs rose 28%, making homeownership unattainable for average families with median incomes of $85,000. This affordability crisis has proven electorally decisive, with recent Democratic victories centered on these bread-and-butter economic issues, and with the Iran conflict driving energy and food prices higher, the 2026 midterms will likely hinge on this issue as President Trump's inflation approval rating stands at just 34%, endangering Republican House candidates in swing districts.
-
31.
Operation Metro Surge, a federal immigration enforcement campaign in December 2025, created an acute shock in Minneapolis-Saint Paul with no coordinated federal relief, forcing communities to rapidly self-organize responses. In this vacuum, mutual aid networks emerged organically while organizations like the Latino Economic Development Center deployed $800,000+ in emergency grants, and corporate leaders coordinated a $4 million Economic Response Fund to stabilize businesses facing an estimated $200 million in economic losses. The experience demonstrates that communities can respond effectively to policy shocks through grassroots coordination, pre-existing relationships of trust between nonprofits and institutions, and institutional agility—but requires advance resilience planning and cross-sector alignment. Key lessons for other communities include scenario planning for political disruptions, maintaining close connections with local government, and adopting innovation mindsets that prioritize speed over traditional bureaucratic processes.
-
32.
Following the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, the Trump administration is pivoting to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 as its primary tariff mechanism. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 requires a formal administrative process with public comment periods and hearings, giving stakeholders an opportunity to shape the evidentiary record. USTR has initiated investigations affecting 60 economies—16 on 'structural excess capacity' policies and all 60 on forced labor import restrictions—with written comments due April 15, 2026. The eventual scope and defensibility of resulting tariffs will depend critically on how USTR defines key terms and frames its justifications. This procedural requirement creates both constraints on tariff scope and opportunities for businesses and workers to influence definitions that will affect supply chains, federal revenue, and trade policy for years to come.
-
33.
US commercial shipbuilding is nearly extinct, producing only ~1 ship annually and representing just 0.04% of global output, with domestic vessels costing five times more than South Korean alternatives due to labor shortages, outdated infrastructure, and weak supply chains. The Jones Act, intended to protect the industry by mandating domestic construction of vessels used in US waters, has paradoxically reduced competitiveness while raising water transportation costs and preventing LNG access to regions like New England and Alaska. Steel tariffs and restrictive immigration policies further compound these challenges. The case for Jones Act reform or repeal has never been stronger, despite uncertain political prospects.
-
34.
CATO argues the Federal Reserve's defense of its Interest on Reserves (IOR) program is fundamentally flawed. The Fed claims IOR and Treasury securities are fiscal equivalents, but this week's weak Treasury auction demonstrates they are not: investors carefully price Treasurys based on inflation and duration risk, while IOR is administratively set with no market discipline. The article contends this substitution argument ignores how markets function and allows the government to monetize debt without the market signals that would otherwise discipline fiscal spending.
-
35.
Hunt Davidson created the Logos Tutoring Program to address educational disengagement in adolescent boys through a three-year immersive curriculum combining classical learning (ancient Greek, permaculture), outdoor education (10 hours weekly in nature), and one-on-one mentoring in rural Georgia. The program deliberately exposes boys to challenges, failures, and hardship in a safe environment to build resilience and self-ownership, incorporating liturgical practices and wilderness survival training. Drawing from his experience at St. John's College, Davidson's approach emphasizes what he describes as 'mythological, agrarian, and monastic' principles—storytelling, land stewardship, and contemplative practice—suggesting an alternative educational model that prioritizes character development and emotional growth over traditional classroom instruction.
-
36.
Congress should require at least $600 billion in net deficit reduction if it uses reconciliation for new spending on the Iran war ($200 billion) and immigration enforcement, given the nation's unsustainable fiscal trajectory with federal debt projected to exceed GDP this year and reach 175% by 2056. The article identifies mandatory entitlements (Medicare and Social Security) as the primary drivers of persistent $2 trillion annual deficits, with the proposed $200 billion spending addition carrying a true cost of $287 billion including interest and indirect expenses. Multiple cost-saving reforms to Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, and tax provisions could easily exceed $1 trillion in savings, providing ample offsets. The article argues Congress should restore fiscal rules like the Conrad Rule or implement a 2:1 offset requirement to ensure reconciliation becomes a tool for fiscal discipline rather than deficit expansion, preventing the bipartisan abuse that plagued previous reconciliation efforts.
-
37.
The article argues that the Federal Reserve's control over market interest rates is often overstated, with market forces frequently dictating rate movements. This is evidenced by recent Treasury auctions where rates surged independently of any Fed policy changes, demonstrating the Fed's reactive rather than proactive role in setting rates. The author suggests that Congress should impose guardrails on the Fed's discretionary powers, advocating for a more objective, rule-based monetary policy to enhance accountability and align better with market conditions.
-
38.
A recent study on Seattle's 2024 per-task minimum pay policy for app-based gig workers reveals that while the initiative successfully raised per-task wages, it inadvertently led to a significant reduction in average tips, increased unpaid idle time, and longer distances driven between tasks. Consequently, the policy resulted in no effective increase in monthly earnings for incumbent drivers, as higher per-task pay was offset by these negative factors. This case suggests that well-intentioned interventions aimed at boosting gig worker pay can backfire, highlighting the complex dynamics of labor markets and the potential for unintended consequences in policy implementation.
-
39.Here’s How the Administration Plans to Spend the Largest Immigration Enforcement Funding Surge in History (CATO)
The article highlights a critical lack of transparency in the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) spending of $191 billion from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), particularly for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Despite significant apportioned funds, Congress lacks comprehensive public accounting of how the money is being obligated and spent, hindering effective oversight. For example, ICE's monthly expenditures have doubled, with billions allocated to detention facilities, while CBP has tens of billions for border wall construction. This situation weakens governmental checks and balances, leading to concerns about potential misuse of taxpayer resources. The author advocates for rescinding unobligated funds, funneling future allocations through regular appropriations, and enhancing reporting requirements to restore accountability.
-
40.
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is in a severe financial crisis, losing money annually since 2007 due to declining mail volumes and intense competition, with structural reforms hindered by Congress. Postmaster General David Steiner has proposed closing unprofitable retail locations and reducing delivery frequency. However, the CATO Institute advocates for privatizing the USPS to enable greater efficiency, allow it to compete on a level playing field, and adapt its services to modern communication demands.
-
41.
A CATO study utilizing 2024 American Community Survey data reveals that both legal and illegal immigrants are significantly less likely to be incarcerated than native-born Americans. In 2024, native-born Americans had an incarceration rate of 1,195 per 100,000, compared to 674 for illegal immigrants and 303 for legal immigrants, a trend consistent since 2010. The findings suggest that mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not reduce crime rates, and policy should instead focus on removing non-citizen criminals while improving data collection on the immigration status of those arrested or convicted.
-
42.
States are reportedly exploiting loopholes in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) to manipulate Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) error rates, thereby avoiding federal penalties for improper payments. The "Alaska Carveout" and other tactics, such as weakening quality control and using "no good cause" waivers, allow states to delay or circumvent financial repercussions, undermining the act's intent to improve program integrity. This leads to perverse incentives where states are rewarded for maintaining high error rates rather than fixing underlying problems. Congress is urged to eliminate these loopholes to strengthen OBBBA reforms and ultimately consider shifting SNAP funding responsibility to states to curb waste and fraud.
-
43.
The article argues that the IMF's current analysis of global economic imbalances is outdated, incorrectly attributing too much blame to Europe and too little to China. It contends that China's surplus has significantly increased, largely at Europe's expense, which is evident when adjusting for data distortions like Ireland's tax practices and relying on customs data over potentially misreported balance of payments figures. The author concludes that the IMF must update its analytical framework to accurately reflect the true distribution of global surpluses and the impact of China's trade practices on European economies, urging a shift in its "worldview to trade reality."
-
44.
Freedom House's "Freedom in the World 2026" report indicates a severe, 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline, marked by authoritarian regimes increasingly formalizing collaboration to undermine democratic institutions worldwide. The report notes significant deteriorations in political rights and civil liberties, even in countries like the United States, alongside a global erosion of media freedom and due process. This trend is compounded by major democracies turning inward, reducing support for global democracy promotion, and facing domestic challenges to their own democratic systems. Reversing this alarming trajectory, the author suggests, necessitates close cooperation among leading democracies, a prospect currently hindered by prevailing geopolitical dynamics and foreign policy priorities.
-
45.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran provides Russia with short-term advantages, such as increased oil revenues due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the diversion of Western military aid from Ukraine, aiding its ongoing offensive. However, Russian elites are growing apprehensive, noting Russia's diminished global influence, exclusion from Middle East diplomacy, and the long-term strategic and economic drain of the Ukraine conflict. While U.S.-Russia relations have soured and Ukraine peace talks are paused, Putin's sustained belief in potential collaboration with the Trump administration currently prevents a more significant bilateral breakdown.
-
46.
The Trump administration's 'Donroe Doctrine' seeks to displace Chinese economic influence from the Western Hemisphere through pressure and threats, but this approach alone will fail without providing attractive economic alternatives. China has grown its trade relationships with Latin America from nearly zero to $500 billion annually and now dominates infrastructure, financing, and consumer goods markets. To succeed, the US must leverage expanded financing from the Development Finance Corporation, Export-Import Bank, and multilateral development banks to make US companies competitive, while also promoting transparency, standards-setting, and strategic partnerships. The US should focus on sectors like AI, telecommunications, and infrastructure where private companies can profit while advancing national security interests. Without economic incentives and investment support, the Donroe Doctrine risks failing to counter Chinese influence in the region.
-
47.
Despite not wanting war, Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) now require complete Iranian regime defeat to protect their economic transformation and regional stability. Iran's campaign of missile and drone strikes intended to fracture the coalition instead unified Gulf leaders behind continued US military operations. The region's diversification strategy—pivoting from oil to become global tech and logistics hubs—depends on safety and investor confidence incompatible with ongoing Iranian threats. While direct Gulf military involvement risks escalation and political complications, these states are preparing for prolonged instability and substantial defense spending increases if Iran survives. The outcome will determine whether the Gulf achieves its development goals or remains trapped in perpetual security crises.
-
48.
The Iran War's disruption of oil and LNG supplies is forcing Asian economies dependent on Middle Eastern energy to fundamentally restructure their energy strategies. Across the region, governments are accelerating nuclear energy development (Japan, China, South Korea), re-embracing coal, and exploring renewable expansion, with South Korea even considering breaching its US nuclear agreement to pursue domestic uranium enrichment. While these shifts address long-term security needs, most Asian states face significant near-term economic pain, as alternative energy sources require time to deploy and the critical Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The crisis reveals Asia's structural energy vulnerabilities and underscores the geopolitical risks of energy insecurity, including potential tensions with security allies and proliferation concerns.
-
49.
The Trump administration has failed to deploy a humanitarian strategy for Middle East conflicts despite $11 billion in military spending and $5.4 billion in Congressional humanitarian funding available—a policy choice, not a capacity constraint. With over 1 million displaced in Lebanon and 3.2 million in Iran (potentially the largest refugee crisis of the 21st century), the humanitarian void is creating cascading global crises including food insecurity and disrupted supply chains. The author argues that unaddressed humanitarian crises historically breed extremism, mass migration, and state collapse—requiring far costlier future interventions—while humanitarian investment offers superior long-term security returns. The administration previously demonstrated rapid humanitarian response in Beirut (2020) and Jamaica (2025), proving capability. The article recommends programming available funds, establishing sanctions carve-outs for aid, creating a UN-coordinated operation center, and convening a humanitarian pledging conference.
-
50.
CFR President Michael Froman argues that the US failure to build robust allied support for securing the Strait of Hormuz reflects a deeper erosion in coalition-building capacity stemming from inadequate consultation and allied perceptions that military action serves primarily US interests. Despite the Strait's critical importance—handling 40% of China's crude oil and significant European energy flows—responses from major allies ranged from outright refusal to lukewarm commitments, while China strategically abstained despite substantial vulnerability to supply disruption. The episode suggests Trump administration policies on tariffs and territorial claims have depleted the diplomatic capital necessary for allies to support US-led military operations, with significant implications for future security commitments requiring broad international participation.
-
51.
The UK-Mauritius agreement to return the Chagos Archipelago grants Mauritius sovereignty while allowing the U.S. to maintain the critical Diego Garcia military base for 99 years (potentially renewable indefinitely) at no cost, securing strategic access to the Indian Ocean for operations in the Middle East and East Africa. Trump's opposition to the deal, citing national security concerns, appears rooted in geopolitical leverage disputes with UK leadership rather than genuine military vulnerabilities; experts argue the arrangement actually strengthens U.S. interests by providing legal clarity and perpetual access. Iran's March 2026 ballistic missile attack on Diego Garcia—the base's first direct targeting—demonstrates extended Iranian strike capability and validates the base's critical role in U.S. regional defense, though the agreement preserves full American operational control. The proposed framework represents a strategic win for all parties: Mauritius regains sovereignty, the UK resolves international legal liability, and the U.S. secures cost-free long-term access to a strategically vital facility.
-
52.
African countries have largely maintained diplomatic silence and refused to align with Iran in the ongoing Iran war, disappointing Tehran's decades-long effort to build anti-Western alliances across the continent. Their cautious neutral stance reflects pragmatic calculations: protecting existing partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Gulf states; avoiding disruptions to critical oil and fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz; and preserving valuable bilateral development agreements. Iran's attempt to position itself as a theocratic alternative to Western values and leverage Shiite religious networks has largely backfired, with even traditional allies like South Africa offering only muted criticism. As Iran emerges weakened from the conflict, its capacity to pursue military, diplomatic, and religious objectives in Africa will diminish, ceding regional influence to Gulf states and the United States.
-
53.
Sebastian Mallaby, a senior fellow at CFR, reflects on his career trajectory from international journalism to think tank work, shaped by his diplomatic family background and postings across the Soviet Union, Africa, and Asia. Drawing from his experience covering major events like the end of apartheid and Nelson Mandela's release, he emphasizes how curiosity about what makes countries prosperous and peaceful drives meaningful foreign policy work. Mallaby advises aspiring foreign policy professionals to consider diverse institutional platforms—including academia, multinational corporations, and think tanks—recognizing that traditional journalism faces technological disruption while institutions like CFR provide sustained support for deep policy analysis and intellectual leadership.
-
54.
David J. Scheffer's career demonstrates how individual commitment transformed international norms around accountability for atrocity crimes, from accepting impunity in 1993 to making justice a permanent policy fixture. Working under Madeleine Albright at the UN, Scheffer pioneered the creation of five major war crimes tribunals (Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Cambodia, and the ICC) that shifted accountability from a marginalized concept to a core international law principle. His on-the-ground experiences witnessing mass atrocities' immediate aftermath—including traumatized victims in Sierra Leone and Rwanda—deeply motivated his persistent efforts despite significant government resistance and UN Security Council reluctance to fund repeated institutions. The article illustrates how post-Cold War cooperation enabled the development of international justice mechanisms that now permanently factor into policy deliberations, though enforcement challenges remain against powerful actors like Russia. Scheffer's legacy underscores both the transformational potential of institutional innovation in international law and the ongoing struggle to translate accountability norms into actual justice.
-
55.
Jessica Brandt's career evolution—from CFR researcher to Director of ODNI's Foreign Malign Influence Center—illustrates how technology has become a central domain of US geopolitical competition. Her work focused on foreign information warfare and technology-enabled asymmetric competition between democracies and authoritarian regimes, particularly through social media platforms and election interference. Brandt's trajectory demonstrates that technology is now inseparable from traditional foreign policy concerns, requiring practitioners with hybrid expertise spanning government, think tanks, and civil society. She emphasizes that emerging tech policy challenges require adaptability, as issues like AI and digital influence operations present novel problems that outpace traditional policy frameworks. Her advice to younger policymakers highlights the importance of technological literacy and willingness to pivot toward emerging national security threats in 21st-century foreign policy.
-
56.
Alan Cullison's distinguished career as a foreign correspondent highlights an unconventional path into foreign policy reporting, emphasizing the power of human-focused storytelling over traditional 'bang-bang' narratives. His experiences, from writing obituaries to covering wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan, instilled a deep empathy for individuals, which guided his pursuit of unique insights like discovering al-Qaeda documents. Cullison advocates for journalism that provides interpretive analysis and 'honest interpreters of events,' even amidst industry disruptions. His work underscores how profound understanding of human experiences in global contexts, as presented by dedicated correspondents, remains vital for informed public discourse and strategic considerations.
-
57.
Vinh Nguyen, a senior fellow for AI at CFR, reflects on his career in foreign policy, emphasizing his problem-solving approach at the NSA where he worked on counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and became its first chief responsible AI officer. He highlights the critical challenge of balancing rapid AI development with democratic values like privacy and accountability, especially given the private sector's dominant role in technological advancement. Nguyen now focuses on securing AI at a foundational level and advises young people to embrace AI as a tool, build confidence, and adapt their skills to the evolving technological landscape.
-
58.
President Trump has extended his pause on threatening Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6, signaling an attempt at diplomacy amidst the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. This delay has significant global economic implications, with projections of increased inflation and discussions about potentially diverting aid from Ukraine to the Middle East. Concurrently, international efforts are focused on securing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining support for Ukraine, highlighted by a new security cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Ukraine.
-
59.
The ongoing Iran war is causing severe disruptions in global energy markets, prompting governments and companies worldwide to implement emergency policies. Nations like the Philippines have declared energy emergencies, while Slovenia and Sri Lanka have introduced fuel rationing, and major corporations are facing substantial cost increases and supply chain issues. These widespread economic impacts, including falling stock markets and projected inflation, are driving international diplomatic efforts, such as proposals for summits and peace plans, to stabilize the volatile situation.
-
60.
The United States and Iran have reportedly engaged in indirect contact regarding potential negotiations, despite public denials from Tehran. This comes amid escalating military tensions, with increased U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East and hardening stances from Gulf states against Iran. The volatile situation underscores a precarious geopolitical landscape, with experts advising a strategy to manage rather than overthrow the Iranian regime.
-
61.
President Trump initially threatened to "obliterate" Iranian energy sites but later announced a five-day pause, ostensibly due to diplomatic conversations that Iran subsequently denied. This occurs amidst escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including Israeli airstrikes in Tehran and significant cross-border attacks between Iran and Israel over the weekend, resulting in numerous casualties. Unofficial reports indicated initial peace talks were exploring conditions such as a halt to Iran's missile program and an end to military offensives. The complex situation highlights persistent diplomatic and military tensions in the region, with broader implications for global energy prices and international stability.
-
62.
The ongoing Iran War is significantly impacting the global economy, with the World Trade Organization forecasting a 0.3 percent reduction in global GDP growth for 2026 if energy prices remain high. Regions like Europe and Gulf states, including Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are projected to face substantial economic contractions due to prolonged conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure, such as the recent Iranian strike on a Qatari gas facility. Policy responses include the US considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and approving significant arms sales to Middle Eastern allies. Diplomatic and strategic shifts are also evident in deals like Belarus's prisoner release tied to fertilizer exports and the UK's foreign aid cuts to boost military spending.
-
63.
The conflict in the Middle East has intensified with targeted attacks on natural gas facilities in Iran and Qatar, causing significant disruption and threatening global energy markets. Israel initiated strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, leading to Iranian retaliation against a Qatari LNG facility and drone attacks on Kuwaiti and Saudi energy infrastructure, which sent oil prices fluctuating. The escalation has prompted the U.S. to attempt stabilization of oil markets and Gulf nations to issue stern warnings, suggesting prolonged geopolitical and economic implications.
-
64.
U.S. allies in Europe and Japan are largely declining to actively join the Iran war, signaling a shift towards strategic independence and pragmatism in their foreign policies despite U.S. pressure. European leaders cite past U.S. actions and domestic political factors for their reluctance, while Japan emphasizes constitutional constraints on military involvement, though both provide some U.S. operational support. The conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose severe economic threats to both regions, impacting energy security and global stability. This growing divergence in interests, coupled with waning U.S. soft power, prompts allies to hedge through diversified relationships, raising questions about the long-term cohesion of U.S. alliances.
-
65.
An event titled 'Reading the Public: American Attitudes Toward U.S. Foreign Policy' will analyze U.S. public opinion on the nation's foreign policy and its role in the world. Panelists will present findings from recent polling and survey data, including the 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer, Gallup’s World Affairs survey, and the 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey. The discussion aims to explore what Americans think about these critical international issues, offering insights into public sentiment that could influence U.S. foreign policy direction.
-
66.
Dr. Gorka presents the Trump administration's counterterrorism strategy, positioning Iran as the principal global sponsor of terrorist networks funding both Shia and Sunni extremist groups, and arguing that Operation Epic Fury has substantially degraded Tehran's operational capability while ideological intent persists. The strategy prioritizes information operations (IO) as foundational counterterrorism, emphasizing the need to expose regime hypocrisy and terrorist ineffectiveness to erode support, paired with emphasis on state sovereignty as essential for long-term security. Key initiatives include rebuilding counterterrorism partnerships in Iraq and Syria post-operation, strengthening capacity in the Sahel and Lake Chad regions, and conducting sustained messaging campaigns to undermine terrorist recruitment and ideology.
-
67.
The 70th UN Commission on the Status of Women focused on access to justice and eliminating discriminatory laws, with panelists highlighting that women globally possess only two-thirds the legal rights of men. Key barriers include widespread discriminatory legislation (affecting rape definitions, child marriage, and equal pay), fragmented justice systems inaccessible to women, and social biases that discourage reporting. The Commission adopted historic agreed conclusions for the first time requiring a vote after 70 years, establishing stronger commitments to legal aid, digital justice platforms, and survivor-centric approaches to conflict-related sexual violence, though the United States cast an unprecedented opposing vote. Speakers emphasized that implementing these agreements requires sustained political will, adequate funding for justice systems, and international accountability mechanisms to address gender-based violence and impunity.
-
68.
The Hauser Symposium examines the evolution of the U.S.-led international order across three critical phases: the post-WWII commitment to global engagement, the lost promise of post-Cold War optimism for liberal order and unipolarity, and the disruptive effects of Trump-era policy shifts. The symposium argues that U.S. foreign policy has been shaped by foundational decisions made in each era, with the post-Cold War period's hopes for expanded globalization and convergence ultimately giving way to renewed great power competition. The discussion suggests the U.S. faces a structural inflection point requiring reassessment of its global role and strategic choices in a multipolar international system.
-
69.
The article argues that the administration's attempt to define 'America First' in Africa lacks coherence—promising to avoid public moralizing while publicly shaming South Africa over fabricated genocide claims and conducting spectacle-driven military strikes. The 'trade not aid' strategy is recycled from previous administrations and ignores why private investment remains scarce: security concerns, weak rule of law, and government legitimacy issues. Without addressing these fundamentals and developing a strategic vision for Africa's role by 2050, the U.S. risks losing influence to competitor powers and failing to advance genuine American interests.
-
70.
China's new Ethnic Unity Law (adopted March 2026) marks a decisive shift from ethnic autonomy toward aggressive assimilation, mandating Mandarin education and suppressing minority languages while using ideology to "forge" a unified Chinese national identity. The law replaces the 1984 autonomy framework and mirrors previous assimilationist attempts in Inner Mongolia (2020) that triggered protests and ethnic purges. The policy risks worsening ethnic tensions and exemplifies Beijing's broader trend of embedding Xi Jinping's ideology into state law, signaling erosion of legal protections for minorities in China's "counter-reform era."
-
71.
The USMCA review faces an unlikely clean extension by July 1, 2026, amid three critical developments: the Supreme Court's IEEPA tariff ruling, Mexico's killing of cartel leader El Mencho, and escalating U.S. pressure on Canada. Most likely outcomes include a painful, extended negotiation with significant concessions; serial annual reviews without resolution; or a shift to bilateral agreements. Mexico must balance security delivery with domestic economic reforms to strengthen its negotiating position, while Canada diversifies trade partnerships to reduce U.S. leverage. Though a workable deal addressing China supply chains and enforcement is achievable without dismantling the trilateral framework, durable alignment requires all three nations to recognize their mutual interdependence rather than accept terms under political duress.
-
72.
The Trump administration's $1 billion deal with TotalEnergies to abandon offshore wind development in favor of oil and gas investments is significant not for its immediate impact on offshore wind, but for establishing a precedent of executive action that bypasses Congress and courts to unwind private federal contracts. By compensating a company to abandon a federally approved project without clear statutory framework or legal process, the administration introduces political discretion into what was historically a rules-based investment environment, increasing political risk across industries dependent on federal leases. This shift threatens to raise capital costs for infrastructure projects and could slow deployment in critical sectors like mining and LNG that the administration aims to expand. The claimed benefits for domestic energy affordability are contradicted by the deal's mechanics: offshore wind would have provided needed capacity to constrained regional grids, while increased LNG exports would compete with domestic gas supply and potentially raise domestic energy prices.
-
73.
Iran's current conflict strategy marks a significant shift towards unrestrained retaliation against the U.S. and Israel, characterized by both horizontal and vertical escalation. This involves expanding the conflict geographically to 14 countries and targeting an increasingly diverse array of sites, including civilian infrastructure, within days of the conflict's onset. This aggressive approach aims to impose severe costs and deter future attacks, already leading to dramatic intensification. The ongoing escalation threatens further regional destabilization and global market disruption if a ceasefire is not achieved.
-
74.
Europe must undertake bold and comprehensive economic action, including accelerating decarbonization, to mitigate the severe economic consequences of the Iran war and projected prolonged energy disruptions. Learning from past energy crises, the article advocates for a new fiscal package to incentivize electrification, support European manufacturing, and ensure collective financing for Ukraine. Key policy recommendations also include establishing a true European energy union with expedited grid modernization and renewable energy deployment, moving away from ad-hoc national responses towards a unified, financially robust approach for energy security and economic stability.
-
75.
The CSIS 'Trendlines March 2026 Newsletter' asserts that the global AI race is evolving beyond mere model breakthroughs and compute performance. It highlights that structural trends in global energy systems are converging with changes in capital markets, industrial policy, and technology diffusion, becoming crucial determinants for future AI leadership. The newsletter aims to provide data-driven insights to help decision-makers distinguish credible hypotheses from hype by connecting various research areas within CSIS. For policy and strategy, this suggests an imperative to consider the integrated impact of energy, economic, and industrial factors when addressing the future of AI.
-
76.
AI-enabled technologies are set to transform crop breeding by accelerating the development of more resilient, higher-yielding, and nutritious crops essential for global food security. These advancements improve data management, enhance data collection and analysis, and provide novel genomic tools, addressing increasing food demand and ecological pressures. However, challenges such as unequal access to AI tools and genetic data, particularly in the Global South, and the need for aligned regulatory frameworks could hinder progress. To leverage AI's full potential, policymakers must support foundational sciences, build institutional capacity, establish coherent regulations, and promote global collaboration to ensure equitable deployment and long-term benefits for food systems.
-
77.
A CSIS report advocates for Qualified Infrastructure Authorization (QIA) to overhaul the U.S. federal permitting system for energy infrastructure, critiquing the current process as overly procedural and delay-prone. QIA proposes a criteria-based approach, utilizing predefined standards, standardized monitoring, and a single, coordinated review process across multiple environmental statutes to accelerate project approvals. This framework aims to reduce current bottlenecks and redundancy by focusing on environmental outcomes and efficiency, rather than protracted procedural compliance. Implementing QIA would require congressional action to establish statutory authority, define eligibility, and authorize a lead agency for consolidated approvals. The initiative seeks to balance the urgent need for infrastructure development with robust environmental protection and public trust.
-
78.
The CSIS report, "Golden Insights: High-Quality Products Derived from Commercial Earth Observations," emphasizes a critical market transition from raw Earth observation data to sophisticated, derived insights. This shift is driven by increased multi-source remote sensing data and advanced AI tools, which facilitate the rapid and scalable extraction of valuable information. The report outlines key factors for product value, customer buying centers, and evaluation metrics, aiming to establish a common language for producers and consumers. This initiative is designed to enhance customer satisfaction and accelerate growth across the commercial Earth observation sector, enabling diverse industries to leverage decision-ready products for improved market readiness and revenue.
-
79.
After three weeks, the air campaign in the Iran War shows a sustained U.S. strike tempo, adapted to use less expensive munitions, while Iranian drone and missile launches have significantly declined but persist, notably targeting Gulf states' energy facilities. Gulf allies report high interception rates of 80-90%, but their interceptor inventories are reportedly dwindling. The ongoing conflict signals continued regional instability, raising critical questions about Iran's remaining military capabilities and the potential for a U.S. military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
-
80.
Sudan's volunteer-led Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) were awarded the Chatham House Prize 2025 for their crucial humanitarian efforts amidst the ongoing conflict. This grassroots network, operating since April 2023, provides essential aid, medical support, education, and addresses gender-based violence to over thirty-three million displaced people across Sudan, often in areas inaccessible to international organizations. The recognition underscores the vital role of local initiatives in humanitarian crises, calling for sustained international support to protect civic spaces and empower Sudanese efforts for future rebuilding and transformation.
-
81.
The Kremlin is implementing widespread internet blackouts and censorship, extending to major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, to tighten its grip on Russia's digital space, citing security and national control. These measures include banning popular social media and messaging apps while promoting state-controlled alternatives, impacting daily life and suppressing protests for internet freedom. The shutdowns have caused significant economic disruption, costing local businesses millions daily and threatening small and medium-sized enterprises with bankruptcy. This aggressive digital control strategy reflects the regime's growing anxieties and will likely test the public's tolerance and potential for dissent.
-
82.
The Iran war underscores the growing normalization of AI-supported targeting in modern warfare, raising significant concerns about its implications. While AI tools enhance efficiency in data processing and target identification, incidents like the alleged strike on an Iranian school highlight risks such as inaccuracies from faulty data and the reduction of human judgment in critical decisions. This trend necessitates the development of clear rules for AI use in conflict to mitigate errors and prevent civilian harm, even as a binding international framework remains distant.
-
83.
Syria's effective foreign policy in insulating itself from regional conflicts masks the deeper risk of its unresolved internal divisions. This is highlighted by the recent Israeli airstrike in Sweida, which occurred amidst internal clashes and demonstrated how domestic instability continues to invite external intervention despite diplomatic gains. The government's reliance on external, elite-level agreements over inclusive national dialogue leaves critical issues of governance and power-sharing unaddressed. Lasting stability therefore hinges on establishing a credible and transparent national process to foster internal consensus and legitimacy, rather than solely depending on external diplomatic maneuvers.
-
84.Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia’s strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones (Chatham House)
Russia pursues a calculated strategy in the Iran-Israel conflict, acting as spectator, beneficiary, and player while avoiding direct military entanglement. Moscow provides diplomatic support and likely drone assistance to Iran while maintaining deconfliction channels with Israel and the US, extracting advantage without assuming proportional risks. Disruptions in Gulf energy markets have tightened global crude supplies, improving Russia's fiscal position and demonstrating resilience under sanctions. This selective engagement approach reinforces Moscow's narrative of indispensability across multiple theaters and strengthens its negotiating position on Ukraine. Russia's Middle East gains directly feed into the diplomatic calculus, potentially shifting US focus from weakening Russia to managing it, which could increase pressure on Kyiv to accept compromise.
-
85.
Western aid is undergoing a fundamental shift from altruistic framing to explicit conditionality tied to donor national interests, exemplified by the US threatening to withdraw health funding from Zambia to secure preferential access to mineral resources and pathogen data. Driven by fiscal constraints and domestic populism in donor countries, G7 development assistance has fallen 28 percent since 2024, with recipient countries increasingly rejecting unfavorable deals that could impact an estimated 23 million lives by 2030. This transparency paradoxically enables more honest negotiations and stronger recipient accountability, though only if countries build stronger safeguards into aid agreements with longer transition periods. Policymakers advocating for aid should emphasize global health interdependence and shared security interests rather than pure altruism to maintain political viability in fiscally constrained environments.
-
86.
Russia employs 'cyber proxies'—criminal groups, hacktivists, and private entities with varying degrees of state direction—to conduct disruptive cyberattacks against Ukraine while maintaining plausible deniability and complicating attribution. This proxy model shields the Russian state from sanctions while making coordinated response difficult. Chatham House proposes a strategic approach integrating international and domestic law with cost-imposition and disruption tactics to establish deterrence against cyber proxies of any origin, replacing ad-hoc tactical responses with comprehensive, enabling policies.
-
87.
Chatham House organized a policy hackathon where 22 young people developed creative proposals for responsible AI adoption in government. Participants created innovative solutions including 'Guardian Angel,' a security-focused AI system analyzing employee access patterns, alongside ideas for AI-enabled health intelligence platforms and trade-risk detection systems. The exercise highlighted the significant complexity governments face in scaling emerging technologies while balancing transparency, democracy, security, sovereignty, and cost-effectiveness—a critical challenge for policymakers globally.
-
88.Starmer’s handling of Trump and Iran reflects public opinion, but shows the limits of UK power (Chatham House)
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's cautious response to the Iran war initially aligned with British public opinion (59% opposition to the conflict), generating domestic political support but triggering friction with an unpredictable Trump administration. While Starmer's decision to deny US military base access reflected public sentiment, he later made gradual concessions to sustain the UK-US relationship, creating a delicate balancing act between alliance obligations and domestic priorities. The prolonged conflict now threatens his two core objectives: achieving economic recovery (interest rate cuts delayed, energy and food costs rising) and maintaining strong ties with Trump, while exposing significant gaps in UK military capability and straining relations with Gulf allies and Cyprus. The article highlights a fundamental strategic dilemma for Britain: whether closer alignment with the US enables greater influence over decisions or whether maintaining distance better protects national interests, with major implications for UK autonomy and its future role in the Middle East.
-
89.
Prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon threatens to backfire strategically by strengthening Hezbollah rather than weakening it. The analysis argues that military presence will further destabilize Lebanon's fragile state institutions, which are already struggling to provide services and establish legitimacy after recent conflicts. While Hezbollah suffered significant losses following Israel's decapitation of its leadership in September 2024, continued Israeli military operations create conditions for the group to reconstitute as a dispersed guerrilla force and rebuild popular support, particularly among Lebanese Shia communities. The report recommends prioritizing international support to strengthen Lebanese state capacity and provide essential services, coupled with diplomatic efforts to address external Iranian support for Hezbollah, rather than relying on military occupation to achieve disarmament.
-
90.
The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS and formation of the Alliance of Sahel States has fractured regional security cooperation at a critical moment, as the Sahel faces the world's highest terrorism burden according to the Global Terrorism Index. Essential security mechanisms have stalled on key cooperation issues including joint military operations, intelligence sharing, hot pursuit rights, and tackling illicit finance. Ghana and Nigeria's foreign ministers are advocating for localized security solutions adapted to the new regional configuration, suggesting West African security strategies must now function within a fragmented institutional landscape rather than traditional ECOWAS frameworks.
-
91.
President Trump's military campaign against Iran, now three weeks in, is failing to secure international support despite his appeals to NATO and other allies. The US administration faces reluctance from traditional partners to participate or be drawn into the conflict, driven by concerns about regional instability, economic disruption, and the risks of Tehran's retaliatory escalation. The muted European response and lukewarm Gulf state backing complicate the broader strategic objective of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic isolation raises questions about US credibility and alliance cohesion precisely when the administration is simultaneously managing crises in Ukraine, Cuba, and Venezuela.
-
92.
The article examines whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE should shift from defensive to offensive military operations against Iran. While both nations possess advanced air forces capable of striking Iranian targets, significant risks—including Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure, potential US military withdrawal, and severe domestic political consequences of appearing aligned with Israel—make escalation strategically perilous. The economic case for offense is compelling, as Iran's cheaper drone strategy financially exhausts defenders; however, direct military confrontation could irreversibly damage future diplomatic relations and destabilize Gulf governments facing internal security threats. The Gulf Arab states face an unsustainable dilemma: continued defense drains resources while offensive operations risk catastrophic blowback.
-
93.
President Tinubu's state visit to the UK marks Nigeria's highest-level diplomatic engagement with Britain since 1989, aimed at deepening economic partnerships and security cooperation. While Tinubu's visible foreign policy approach has achieved macroeconomic improvements—inflation falling from 30% to 15% and improved international credit ratings—these gains have not materially improved conditions for most Nigerians, who face rising poverty and food insecurity. Nigeria's trade with the UK (£8.1 billion annually) remains modest compared to China (£16.5 billion), and the economy continues to be dominated by hydrocarbons without significant diversification, leaving it vulnerable to commodity shocks. The article argues that diplomatic engagement and foreign investment alone cannot address Nigeria's structural deficits in electricity, education, health, and security—ranked 6th globally on terrorism. Sustainable progress requires complementary domestic structural reforms alongside international partnerships to tackle the long-term drivers of insecurity and economic stagnation.
-
94.
The US-Israel war on Iran has caused significant spikes in global energy and gas prices, threatening long-term damage to the region's energy sector and broader economy. Experts highlight the evolving energy and economic implications, including risks to energy supply, trade flows, inflation, and a broader shift towards economic fragmentation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Gulf economies are navigating these pressures by assessing their resilience and developing policy responses to recover within this volatile global environment.
-
95.
China's established investment-and-export-led economic growth model is encountering severe systemic pressures, marked by diminishing investment returns and a deflationary domestic market. To address these issues, China is implementing an "AI Plus" Initiative, aiming to integrate artificial intelligence across its economy for modernization by 2035. However, significant internal challenges like an aging population, low productivity growth, and high youth unemployment raise doubts about the sustainability of this model and AI's capacity to fulfill the state's ambitious economic and political objectives.
-
96.
The Chatham House article "AI and National Security: Who's Really in Control?" investigates the growing tension between governments and AI companies over the control and governance of artificial intelligence, particularly concerning national security implications, highlighted by the US designating Anthropic a national security threat. The discussion aims to clarify who wields control when national security is at stake, especially as AI companies gain significant leverage over states. Key questions revolve around whether AI firms should be considered national security infrastructure and who bears accountability for military decisions relying on private AI systems. The implications for democracy, global order, and world security are profound, necessitating clear policy definitions.
-
97.
The film "Facing War" provides an exclusive, inside look at NATO's high-stakes diplomacy during a critical period, showcasing the alliance's internal decision-making spaces. It documents tense negotiations with world leaders such as US President Joe Biden, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, focusing on support for Ukraine. The documentary highlights the challenges of balancing aid to Ukraine with concerns about escalating the conflict, reflecting the fragile unity and geopolitical friction within the alliance.
-
98.Justice for Ukraine: Supporting survivors of war crimes and building international solidarity (Chatham House)
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to over 200,000 documented atrocities, presenting a significant challenge to delivering justice. The article advocates for Ukraine to adopt a transitional justice framework that combines prosecutions, truth-seeking, reparations, and institutional reform to manage the vast scale of war crimes. This approach aims to ensure meaningful, victim-centered justice without overwhelming the legal system and addresses complex issues such as enforcing verdicts against Russian leaders and engaging international partners. A robust transitional justice policy is seen as vital for building international solidarity and navigating the conflict's aftermath.
-
99.
The 2026 London conference will convene leaders to address the rapidly shifting international order, driven by US policy changes and China's growing global influence. Discussions will center on preserving essential aspects of the old order, reforming international institutions like the WTO and UN, and coordinating responses to new challenges such as environmental change and AI. The event aims to identify pathways to stability and cooperation, recognizing the increasing role of the Global South in shaping this evolving global landscape.
-
100.Kazakhstan is rewriting its constitution. Is it an exercise in authoritarian modernisation? (Chatham House)
Kazakhstan is implementing sweeping constitutional amendments, including introducing a vice presidency and dissolving the upper house of parliament, which the government presents as modernization. However, critics argue these changes consolidate executive power and weaken existing checks and balances. The reforms raise critical questions about Kazakhstan's political trajectory, implications for presidential succession before the 2029 elections, the fate of Nazarbayev-era elites, and the country's relationship with Russia.
-
101.
The article argues that despite public opposition and Supreme Court rulings against race-based admissions, the political Left continues employing what the author characterizes as discriminatory DEI policies to achieve racial preferences. Evidence cited includes Virginia's proposed HB 61 (mandating 42% of state contracts to minority/women-owned businesses with price-adjustment set-asides), declining Jewish enrollment at Harvard to 7% (lowest since WWII) following the 2023 Supreme Court decision, and the EU's Horizon Europe program ($100+ billion) conditioning research funding on DEI compliance. The Trump administration is pursuing legal challenges arguing these policies violate civil rights law and threaten to create a "balkanized" society with government-defined group rights.
-
102.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize broad tariffs, striking down the legal foundation for Trump's sweeping tariff strategy. The decision reasserts Congress's constitutional taxing power and forces the administration to pursue tariffs through more constrained authorities (Section 232, 301, 122) that require investigations and procedural requirements. While reducing executive unilateral authority and eliminating projected trillions in tariff revenue, the ruling creates ongoing uncertainty as the administration explores alternative legal tools. The decision also constrains the administration's ability to leverage tariffs for non-trade objectives like fentanyl enforcement, though focused tariffs on national security and unfair trade practices remain available.
-
103.
The USPS faces an immediate fiscal crisis due to a structural mismatch between Congress's universal service mandate and an outdated financing model dependent on letter-mail revenue, which has declined 56% since 2007. Although package revenue has grown substantially, labor costs (65% of expenses) and $10.3 billion in annual pension obligations far exceed declining letter revenue, while the organization has exhausted its $15 billion borrowing authority and maintains only 33 days of cash reserves. Congress must choose between explicitly funding universal service through appropriations (as most countries do), restructuring pension financing to align with other federal agencies, or increasing borrowing authority—otherwise, liquidity constraints will force service cuts that disproportionately harm rural and low-income communities.
-
104.
Two weeks into the US-Israeli military campaign, Iran's regime has survived despite significant losses, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, with no major defections or internal uprisings to undermine leadership continuity. While the US and Israel have achieved impressive operational successes in degrading Iran's military capabilities and nuclear facilities, analysts warn that military victory does not guarantee strategic success—Iran maintains retaliatory capacity against Gulf states and possesses enriched uranium that could accelerate nuclear weapons development. The Trump administration faces a political challenge: early calls for regime change conflict with potential exit strategies, risking that a weakened but surviving regime becomes more dangerous and vengeful, particularly if it pursues nuclear deterrence as protection against future attacks.
-
105.
Brookings experts assess the Iran conflict, highlighting a critical gap between U.S. military capabilities and strategic objectives. While initial operations successfully degraded Iran's nuclear program and killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, the panel warns that the deeply institutionalized Islamic Republic system remains intact and capable of resistance, with Khamenei's death creating a martyr rather than enabling regime change. The experts identify mounting asymmetric challenges ahead, including drone attacks and the logistical burden of evacuating hundreds of thousands of Americans from the region. The panel recommends the administration clarify strategic goals to the American public, seek a diplomatic off-ramp, and pivot focus toward incentivizing reform in whatever regime emerges post-conflict rather than pursuing unachievable regime replacement. The discussion underscores that military success in destroying targets does not translate to strategic victory without clear planning for political outcomes.
-
106.
Ambassador Feltman's firsthand account of his 2012 meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei reveals a leader consumed by paranoia about American enmity and decline. Rather than engage on substantive diplomatic matters, Khamenei spent over an hour delivering a monologue indicting U.S. foreign policy while dismissing Obama's peace overtures as a ruse. The encounter confirmed U.S. policymakers' assessment of Khamenei's worldview: he viewed the United States as fundamentally hostile and untrustworthy. Feltman argues this unshakeable conviction shaped Iran's aggressive regional policies and nuclear ambitions, with subsequent U.S. actions like Trump's Iran nuclear deal withdrawal and the Soleimani assassination further reinforcing Khamenei's distrust and undermining prospects for diplomatic resolution.
-
107.
Iraq faces unprecedented pressure to remain neutral as it becomes collateral damage in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Despite government transition and internal sectarian divides, Iraqi political and religious leaders—including Grand Ayatollah Sistani—have maintained stability and resisted pressure to engage militarily, with Iraqi Shias showing complicated, non-monolithic views of Iran rather than unified backing. However, continued strikes on Iraqi territory risk destabilizing the country and potentially triggering civil conflict that would undo decades of US investment. The United States must prioritize Iraq's stability by avoiding preemptive strikes that would undermine Iraqi government authority and alienate key partners.
-
108.Metro Monitor 2026: The relationship between immigration and regional economic performance over the past decade (Brookings)
Brookings' Metro Monitor analysis examines the relationship between immigration and regional economic performance across 196 U.S. metro areas from 2014-2024, directly challenging Trump administration claims that mass deportations boost the economy. Metro areas with larger increases in foreign-born workforce share experienced stronger gross metropolitan product growth, employment rates approximately 3 percentage points higher for both native-born and foreign-born workers, and median earnings roughly $3,000 higher than regions with lower immigration. The data reveal no evidence that immigration depresses native-born worker wages or job opportunities; rather, immigrants complement native workers and expand regional productivity. Early estimates suggest federal immigration enforcement surge could shrink the national workforce by 2.4 million and reduce GDP by over 7% by 2028, posing material risk to metropolitan economies which account for 78% of U.S. jobs.
-
109.Reduced immigration slowed population growth for the nation and most states, new census data show (Brookings)
Recent Census data shows that reduced immigration has significantly slowed U.S. population growth from 0.96% (2023-24) to 0.52% (2024-25), with net international migration declining from 2.7 million to 1.3 million people. Despite lower levels, immigrants still accounted for 71% of national population growth and were responsible for all growth in 14 states, as natural increase remains historically low due to an aging population. The analysis demonstrates that continued immigration restrictions will likely result in population stagnation or decline across most states, with particularly severe impacts for regions experiencing low domestic migration that depend on immigration for demographic sustainability.
-
110.
The Trump administration's restrictive immigration policies resulted in negative net migration of an estimated -295,000 to -10,000 in 2025—the first time in decades—driven by steep declines in green card issuances (down 20%), near-cessation of refugee admissions, and sharp reduction in border parole entries. This negative migration is projected to continue in 2026, significantly reducing labor force growth and necessitating monthly employment growth of only 20,000-50,000 jobs to maintain full employment, down from over 100,000 in recent years. The macroeconomic consequences include $50-100 billion in reduced consumer spending over 2025-2026 and dampened GDP growth of 0.2-0.3 percentage points annually, requiring cautious monetary policy calibration as weakness in specific sectors reflects policy constraints rather than business cycle dynamics.
-
111.
The Brookings report identifies housing affordability as a structural crisis driven by insufficient housing supply relative to demand. Demand-side policies like mortgage subsidies are counterproductive in inelastic markets because they inflate prices rather than improve affordability; the solution requires supply-side reforms. Key recommendations include federal incentives for local development, regulatory reform to streamline permitting (adopting models like Japan's flexible zoning), allowing diverse housing types by-right, and restructuring property taxes to favor density over sprawl. Sustainable progress depends on fundamental long-term changes to the local permitting system and coordinated federal-state action to remove regulatory barriers to housing supply.
-
112.
The U.S. homeowners insurance market faces a crisis driven by climate-related catastrophes, with premiums rising 28% since 2017 and insurers withdrawing from high-risk markets. The proposal introduces 'US Re,' a federal reinsurance entity that would leverage the government's lower cost of borrowing to provide stable, affordable reinsurance for extreme weather events. By pricing risk appropriately while maintaining private sector innovation and market discipline, US Re could reduce premium volatility, expand insurance access, and stabilize housing markets without subsidizing risk.
-
113.
Brookings examines how governments worldwide structure public reinsurance programs to stabilize insurance markets strained by rising natural catastrophe risks, drawing on Adam Solomon's comparative analysis of international models. The core challenge involves two market failures: underpriced insurance that distorts mitigation decisions and financial friction from correlated risks that exceed private reinsurer capacity. Successful programs—including Australia's cyclone pool, UK's Flood Re, and Spain's Consorcio—employ risk-based pricing, broad mandatory participation, mitigation incentives, and credible funding backstops to address catastrophic tail risks. The article concludes that well-designed public reinsurance can provide capital where markets are most strained while preserving private underwriting and mitigation signals, suggesting the U.S. should consider similar structures for natural disasters given growing frequency and severity of extreme weather.
-
114.
This Brookings analysis reveals that housing statistics rely on a flawed framework: designating a single 'household head' to represent entire households, when nearly 50% of adults have no such designation and differ systematically in age and education. Comparing 2024 American Community Survey data with a household-inclusive approach shows that younger adults represent 21.8% of all adults in cost-burdened households but only 14.5% of household heads—demonstrating how current metrics mask who actually faces housing pressures. The authors argue this matters because rising housing costs cause people to double up and delay forming independent households, making actual living arrangements crucial to understanding true demand. By focusing only on household heads, policymakers miss the actual distribution of housing burdens and may design ineffective relief policies.
-
115.
The USMCA is undergoing its first joint review in 2026, requiring the three signatory nations to decide whether to renew, revise, or terminate the agreement. The Brookings report comprehensively evaluates the agreement's performance across key sectors—including automotive, steel, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals—while assessing labor standards and dispute settlement mechanisms. Although the USMCA has strengthened regional economic integration, the agreement faces headwinds from strained U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico relations and evolving global trade dynamics. The review's outcome will be critical for determining whether North America deepens structural integration or allows bilateral relationships to drift. Policymakers must prioritize sector-specific vulnerabilities and institutional reforms to maintain competitiveness and resilience.
-
116.
The Brookings Institution's 2026 USMCA Forward report examines the ongoing first-ever joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement amid significant uncertainty, as the U.S. Trade Representative has signaled unwillingness to recommend renewal without substantial changes. While trade and investment data show positive growth with improved USMCA compliance, U.S. tariff actions have damaged trust with Mexico and Canada despite the agreement's benefits. The review presents three options: 16-year renewal, withdrawal, or continued operation without renewal (triggering annual reviews through 2036). Success requires addressing bilateral relationship strains, improving sector-specific compliance mechanisms, and demonstrating the agreement's value as a competitive North American production platform. USMCA's built-in review mechanism proves superior to NAFTA's rigidity, enabling adaptation to modern trade challenges including e-commerce and artificial intelligence.
-
117.
USMCA has substantially strengthened North American economic integration, with Mexico becoming the United States' top trading partner at $873 billion in 2025 and USMCA compliance surging from under 50% to 76-80% as higher tariffs incentivized firms to meet the agreement's rules of origin. Beyond traditional automotive trade, Mexico now leads the U.S. in imports of Advanced Technology Products, particularly data servers and AI equipment, signaling a shift toward higher value-added manufacturing and reduced dependence on China. Value-added analysis shows approximately 74 cents of each dollar of Mexican manufactured exports originate from North America, demonstrating deep regional production integration across automotive, electronics, and medical device sectors. The 2026 USMCA review is critical to sustaining this trend, though rising Mexican labor costs and tariff uncertainty present challenges to continued investment and employment growth, requiring a focus on skilled labor development and trade policy stability.
-
118.
Mexico's perspective on the 2026 USMCA joint review emphasizes the agreement's strategic importance beyond trade—it serves as an anchor for shared prosperity and supply chain resilience in North America amid global geopolitical competition and economic transformation. The article highlights Mexico's deep integration with the U.S. and Canada, with Mexico accounting for 15.4% of U.S. exports and receiving $106.2 billion in FDI from both countries (2020–Q2 2025), demonstrating mutual economic interdependence. Mexico's diplomatic strategy focuses on separate but coordinated tracks with each partner, while implementing domestic reforms (minimum wage increases, labor protections, tariff adjustments on non-FTA imports) to increase regional value-added production and support job creation. The USMCA provides flexibility for each country to pursue national development objectives while strengthening collective security and resilience, positioning it as a foundation for deeper integration anchored in sovereignty, shared responsibility, and cooperation.
-
119.
Since January 2025, President Trump has implemented significant tariff increases on the U.S.'s largest trading partners including Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union, alongside sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and other goods. The tariff rates have been dynamic, adjusting as bilateral trade deals are negotiated with affected countries, while other nations have implemented retaliatory measures. This comprehensive tariff strategy represents a substantial shift toward protectionism and bilateral trade negotiations, fundamentally altering global trade relationships and supply chain dynamics. The Brookings tracker provides detailed monitoring of these tariff changes, offering critical visibility into the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policy and its cascading economic impacts.
-
120.
The Brookings Institution has developed an interactive trade tracker that monitors U.S. trade flows, tariffs, and pricing changes since the significant policy shift beginning in January 2025. The tool features three dashboards displaying monthly goods and services trade by country and industry, estimated tariffs charged, and trade price inflation, all contextualized by key U.S. trade policy actions under various legal authorities. Specific data highlights include a surge in primary metals imports to $43.7 billion in January 2025 ahead of Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff implementation. The tracker enables policymakers, businesses, and analysts to understand real-time trade dynamics and the impact of changing tariff policies on both U.S. trade patterns and partner responses. Regular monthly updates powered by Census Bureau and BLS data make this a valuable resource for evidence-based assessment of tariff effectiveness.
-
121.
The Trump administration's proposed 'Golden Dome' air and missile defense system, modeled on Israel's Iron Dome, faces fundamental viability challenges exposed by Iran's recent military operations. Iran's successful penetration of Israel's AMD system through mass missile attacks and saturation tactics demonstrates that such defense networks can be overwhelmed by determined adversaries with greater capabilities than Iran, such as China or Russia. The system's cost-benefit analysis is deeply unfavorable: interceptors cost $12.7 million each while Iranian missiles cost $1-2 million, and the system's estimated $844 billion to $1.1 trillion price tag would provide minimal strategic benefit and represent a wasteful opportunity cost when resources are desperately needed elsewhere.
-
122.
As Trump imposes unprecedented tariffs, other countries are forming bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements that exclude the United States, proving global commerce can function without American participation. With the U.S. accounting for only 15% of world trade, countries are successfully reconfiguring supply chains and establishing alternatives to offset reduced American market access. The author argues the 165 other WTO members should negotiate plurilateral agreements within the WTO framework while defending their treaty rights, rather than forming ad-hoc arrangements outside the system. The policy implication is that WTO-based plurilateralism can modernize the trading system, prevent economic fragmentation, and create space for eventual American re-engagement.
-
123.
Section 230 is essential to online innovation and expression, allowing platforms to host user-generated content without liability while maintaining ability to moderate. The law addresses the 'moderator's dilemma' created by earlier court cases and has enabled countless platforms to flourish. Weakening Section 230—through viewpoint neutrality requirements, expanded liability, or moderation mandates—would backfire by encouraging either over-moderation or platform shutdowns, disproportionately harming smaller companies. Historical media liability law has evolved similarly to protect intermediaries and speech; Section 230 follows this precedent. Policymakers should preserve Section 230's core protections and extend similar frameworks to emerging technologies like AI.
-
124.
This analysis documents 208 politically motivated attackers who killed 3,577 people over 51 years (1975–2025), accounting for only 0.35% of U.S. murders—roughly a 1 in 4 million annual risk, vastly smaller than regular homicide at 1 in 14,000. When excluding the statistical outliers of 9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombing, right-wing attackers were responsible for 45% of deaths, Islamists 32%, and left-wing 16%, with no statistically significant increase in attack frequency over time. The author argues that the Trump administration's response—designating domestic left-wing groups as terrorist organizations and refocusing counterterrorism domestically—represents a disproportionate overreaction threatening civil liberties, similar to post-9/11 excesses. The paper concludes that despite the tragic nature of each murder, the minuscule statistical risk does not justify expanded federal security crackdowns or a new domestic war on terrorism.
-
125.
The article analyzes the imminent leadership transition in Iran following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's eventual departure, outlining three main scenarios: managed continuity, a military takeover, or regime collapse, each with significant regional and global implications. Khamenei's advanced age, health concerns, internal unrest, and external pressures make a transition inevitable, yet its outcome is highly uncertain given the complex interplay of political, religious, and military factions. For the U.S., any transition demands a proactive approach, including enhanced intelligence, contingency planning, diplomatic engagement, and coordinated efforts with allies. This strategy aims to mitigate risks, seize opportunities, and navigate potential escalation by proxies while carefully avoiding past policy missteps and direct intervention. The most likely outcomes are considered least auspicious for U.S. interests, potentially leading to intensified regional instability and dangerous regime actions.
-
126.
The Trump administration's erratic foreign policy is eroding global trust in the U.S., accelerating international efforts to reduce dependence on dominant American hyperscalers. This distrust stems from the U.S.'s weaponization of digital infrastructure through sanctions against Russia, which severely crippled its digital economy, highlighting the strategic vulnerability of relying on U.S.-controlled services. Consequently, nations worldwide are pursuing technological independence through localization, threatening America's long-term digital influence. To maintain their global position, American hyperscalers must advocate for U.S. accountability to democratic principles and international law.
-
127.
The war in Ukraine has ushered in a new era of "precise mass" warfare, characterized by the widespread use of low-cost, mass-produced autonomous drones that are fundamentally transforming military strategy. Ukraine's success in leveraging these technologies, with drones accounting for 70% of battlefield casualties, underscores a global shift from expensive, exquisite weapons to scalable precision systems. This development challenges established military powers, particularly the U.S., to rapidly adapt defense policies, industrial production, and integrate private sector innovation while addressing risks associated with private control over critical military technologies.
-
128.
Europe must urgently prepare for potential low-level conventional attacks from Russia, independent of U.S. support, as transatlantic trust wanes and Russia escalates its "gray zone" tactics. The article suggests Russia might leverage this opportunity, using limited provocations like drone incursions, to expose perceived weaknesses in NATO and pressure Europe during Ukraine peace talks. To counter this, European governments must foster internal unity, develop independent defensive and offensive response capabilities, and establish their own communication and coordination mechanisms. This includes updating both military hardware like air defenses and software such as intelligence sharing and command structures. Such proactive measures are crucial to deter Russia and manage crises without relying on a potentially unreliable U.S. response.
-
129.
A potential settlement in Ukraine will not end Europe's security challenges but transform them, necessitating immediate Western preparation for the post-war era. The article posits that Russia will remain a significant long-term threat, likely rebuilding its military and testing European and transatlantic cohesion through hybrid tactics and potential incursions. This dynamic could exacerbate existing transatlantic tensions over sanctions and troop presence, as well as intra-European disputes on burden-sharing. To mitigate these risks, the paper recommends coordinated G7 policy on Russia, a new NATO Harmel Report for a dual-track strategy of deterrence and détente, and revitalizing the OSCE, alongside proposing new Europe-wide risk reduction measures.
-
130.Securing Ukraine’s Future in Europe: Ukraine's Defense Industrial Base—An Anchor for Economic Renewal and European Security (CFR)
Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB) has rapidly evolved into a crucial hub for advanced defense technology, particularly in drones and battlefield software, fueled by wartime innovation and significant investment. Integrating this DIB into European and NATO procurement, through coproduction models and new export centers, is presented as a strategic investment for collective security and Ukraine's post-war economic renewal. Despite challenges in corporate governance, regulation, and interoperability, expanding support for Ukraine's defense sector offers Europe critical advantages in agility, cost-effectiveness, and the rapid scaling of its defense manufacturing. This partnership is vital for reinforcing Europe's long-term security posture and resilience against future threats.
-
131.Beyond Conventional Aid: Institutionalizing Public-Private Partnership in Ukraine’s Humanitarian Response (CFR)
Ukraine's humanitarian response is under extreme strain due to significant cuts in international aid and growing needs, exposing a critical gap in the UN's ability to deploy resources with speed and flexibility. The article proposes establishing a new public-private partnership, drawing inspiration from USAID's agile Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), to bridge this gap. This mechanism would integrate private-sector capabilities and local Ukrainian partners, rapidly channeling funds to national NGOs and coordinating with UN operations to adapt to the war's shifting dynamics and future recovery efforts.
-
132.
The Afghan Taliban and Pakistan have escalated into an 'open war' since late February 2026, with Pakistan conducting deadly air strikes on Afghan cities while accusing the Taliban of harboring Pakistan's TTP militant group—a claim the Taliban denies. The conflict has killed at least 75 civilians and 193 injured, shattering a fragile October 2025 ceasefire and marking the deadliest engagement since the Taliban's 2021 takeover. Pakistan's core grievance centers on the TTP operating from Afghan territory; the Taliban views the group as a loyal ally and resists Pakistani demands to suppress it. Major powers including China, India, and Russia are monitoring closely due to implications for regional stability, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and potential terrorist threats to Western interests. Experts warn that without diplomatic breakthroughs, the conflict risks entering a prolonged cycle of military escalation and failed negotiations that could further destabilize the region.
-
133.
Sudan's ongoing civil war demonstrates clear indicators of genocide, particularly in El Fasher where the RSF's 2025 takeover resulted in approximately 6,000 civilian deaths over three days alongside systematic sexual violence targeting non-Arab communities and deliberate siege conditions. The UN Fact-Finding Mission confirmed that mass killings, widespread rape, forced displacement, and starvation tactics meet the legal requirements for genocide under international law. The author calls for urgent international accountability through ICC jurisdiction expansion, International Court of Justice filings by Genocide Convention signatories, UN Security Council action, and immediate cessation of arms transfers fueling the atrocities.
-
134.
The U.S.-led Board of Peace has appointed a Technocratic Committee of twelve Palestinian technocrats to govern Gaza during its post-conflict transition, replacing Hamas's administrative control under Trump's peace plan. The committee members, drawn primarily from Palestinian Authority backgrounds, bring expertise in healthcare, education, finance, and security to oversee reconstruction and governance. However, the initiative faces significant diplomatic obstacles: major parties to the conflict (Israel, Hamas, Palestinian Authority) declined to attend the board's charter signing, most EU countries have rejected participation citing constitutional and UN concerns, and the board's scope beyond Gaza remains ambiguous. The international community has pledged approximately $17 billion in reconstruction aid and committed military forces for stabilization, but the plan's success depends on securing cooperation from historically adversarial parties and achieving legitimacy among Palestinians. This governance model represents an unprecedented international intervention in post-conflict administration, with unclear prospects for establishing sustainable local rule in Gaza.
-
135.
Balendra Shah's Rastriya Swatantra Party won a landslide majority in Nepal's recent elections, marking a significant victory for Gen Z protesters who toppled the previous government last September over corruption, nepotism, and violent crackdowns. Unlike Gen Z protests elsewhere in Asia that largely failed electorally, Nepal's youth succeeded due to two unique factors: 56% of the population is under 30, giving younger voters outsized ballot power, and the country faces a severe crisis of economic stagnation, high youth unemployment, and institutional decay. Shah, a 35-year-old former mayor and rapper, positioned himself as a corruption-free, technocratic alternative to discredited establishment parties. The RSP's majority government offers rare potential for political stability after Nepal's tradition of short-lived coalitions (averaging one year per PM since 1990), potentially providing time to address systemic corruption, patronage networks, and inequality—though implementation will be challenging.
-
136.
CFR Fellow Roxanna Vigil argues that the US must engage early with Colombia's next administration to signal support for full implementation of the 2016 Peace Accords as the country faces escalating violence and risks of complete accord collapse. Colombia's security crisis has intensified, with armed group membership growing from 15,000 to 22,000 between 2022-2025, while Trump administration threats against Colombia and Venezuela risk further destabilization through military intervention and regional spillover. Allowing the peace process to collapse would endanger 25,000-35,000 Americans, worsen drug trafficking and coca cultivation, trigger migration pressure on the US border, and critically undermine US credibility as a reliable long-term partner globally.
-
137.
Rather than attempting to out-mine China, the U.S. should leapfrog its dominance in critical minerals through disruptive innovation in materials engineering, waste recovery, and recycling technologies. China's near-total control over rare-earth elements and processing—demonstrated by its 2025 export controls on heavy rare earths—gives Beijing a strategic chokehold over global defense, energy, and technology industries. The U.S. already has promising breakthrough technologies emerging from government-funded research (ARPA-E, DARPA) and private companies (Niron Magnetics, ReElement Technologies, Vulcan Elements), but these innovations are stalled in persistent funding gaps between lab research and commercial scale. Policy recommendations include establishing a national critical minerals innovation strategy under the National Energy Dominance Council, creating dedicated venture funding to bridge financing 'valleys of death,' reforming federal loan programs, and coordinating closely with allies through G7 and bilateral frameworks on shared R&D, pilot facilities, and procurement. This approach mirrors the U.S. synthetic rubber program during WWII and positions innovation as a tool of economic statecraft to secure critical minerals independence.
-
138.
Blackwill proposes 'resolute global leadership' as America's optimal grand strategy, combining military superiority with alliance-based competition against China while sustaining the international rules-based order. The US retains substantial enduring advantages—26% of global GDP, 37% of global military spending, and AI/technological leadership—while China faces demographic decline, economic slowdown, and military corruption. This strategy rejects pure primacy, restraint, American nationalism, and Trumpism as inferior alternatives. Key policy implications include substantially increased defense spending, pivoting military forces to Asia, strengthening alliances, engaging diplomatically with China to prevent war, and restoring liberal international order leadership. Successful implementation requires a successor president committed to constitutional governance and skillful execution of this comprehensive approach.
-
139.
The CFR's 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey, based on ~620 expert respondents, identifies 30 plausible global conflicts with 28 assessed as highly or moderately likely to occur and 17 potentially having high or moderate impact on U.S. interests. Five Tier I contingencies—including escalating Gaza and Ukraine conflicts, Iran-Israel tensions, direct U.S. military action in Venezuela, and domestic political violence in the United States—represent the most critical risks, reflecting the highest levels of armed conflict since World War II. Experts identified the strongest preventive opportunities in Ukraine (112 experts), Gaza (49 experts), and Taiwan (31 experts), emphasizing U.S. leverage to avert or manage these crises. The report critiques the Trump administration's dismantling of conflict prevention infrastructure while calling for greater upstream diplomatic efforts, strategic partnerships, and international cooperation to prevent costly military interventions.
-
140.
The United States should compete rather than retreat in autonomous, connected, and electric (ACE) vehicles, using tariffs as temporary protection while pursuing comprehensive policies to strengthen domestic producers globally. China has built substantial first-mover advantages through $230 billion in sustained government support (2009-2023), capturing over 40% of global EV exports despite slower export growth. The U.S. should provide conditional financial assistance to domestic producers, coordinate with allies on supply-chain diversification, carefully manage Chinese foreign direct investment, and establish security standards for vehicle data and software. A purely protectionist approach would eventually leave American consumers and producers isolated from global innovation, with stagnant emissions reductions and reduced competitiveness internationally.
-
141.
The article argues that future Taiwan crises will fundamentally differ from past ones, involving multiple regional powers (Japan, Philippines, Australia, South Korea) and potentially Russia and North Korea, with geographic expansion and escalation risks that extend beyond the Taiwan Strait. Current US planning remains based on outdated three-party assumptions and fails to account for simultaneous crises elsewhere, China's degraded early-warning indicators, and the critical role of allies whose support cannot be assumed. The authors recommend accelerated joint military planning with allies, pre-crisis consultative mechanisms, simulation exercises accounting for allied political dynamics, US-China agreements on permissible activities, and transformation of regional US command structures to better coordinate multi-actor contingencies.
-
142.
China's newly approved Five-Year Plan extends its dominance in clean energy technologies—solar, wind, electric vehicles, hydrogen, and fusion—through systematic long-term strategic investment, while the Trump administration prioritizes fossil fuels and abandons international climate commitments. China's planning approach has proven highly effective, quadrupling domestic solar capacity and growing EV market share to over 50% in the past five years, while U.S. renewable investment has collapsed due to inconsistent policy reversals. Beyond energy production, China is investing in climate adaptation and disaster resilience infrastructure, while the U.S. has dismantled federal adaptation programs despite suffering $115 billion in climate damages in 2025. The strategic divergence positions China to capture a growing share of the projected doubling in global renewable energy markets over the coming years.
-
143.
The Iran War has created an acute energy crisis across Asia through Strait of Hormuz closure and strikes on major Gulf refineries, with oil production down 10 million barrels per day and flows through the strait at less than 10% of pre-war levels. Since Asia receives 84% of global oil shipments through the Strait, the region faces imminent fuel shortages forcing governments to implement emergency measures including fuel rationing, price caps, reduced workweeks, and unsustainable subsidies. The resulting economic contraction—factory closures, tourism collapse, and fiscal strain—combined with historical patterns of violent fuel-price protests in Indonesia, India, and Bangladesh, creates significant risk of political instability and unrest if the war extends through summer.
-
144.
The Iran war has created a historic geoeconomic crisis as Iranian drone strikes have effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel and disrupting global fertilizer and food supply chains that rely heavily on Gulf exports. The attacks have uniquely targeted commercial data centers, hitting Amazon facilities in the UAE and Bahrain—marking the first military strikes on such critical infrastructure—and exposing vulnerabilities in concentrating AI infrastructure in volatile regions. A prolonged conflict risks structural economic damage through stagflation-like conditions, food insecurity affecting import-dependent regions, and potential geopolitical shifts to Russia, Syria, and Turkey through alternative transport routes. The U.S. faces limited de-escalation options and must either make strategic concessions to Iran or risk further military escalation, while financial markets have already responded with global equities down over 5 percent.
-
145.
The Iran War's disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz threatens a global food and fertilizer crisis beyond the widely-discussed energy shock. Gulf region countries, heavily dependent on imports (77-95% of staples), face compounded vulnerabilities from attacks on desalination plants that supply 100 million people and disruption of one-third of global fertilizer trade. The precedent of Ukraine's fertilizer shock—which drove 27 million into poverty and 22 million into hunger—combined with the systematic weaponization of food and water resources suggests this conflict could trigger a cascading humanitarian catastrophe affecting global food security and international stability.
-
146.
Following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in February 2026, escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil and natural gas supply. Iran has retaliated by attacking shipping vessels, warning maritime traffic to avoid the waterway, and signaling intent to blockade it as strategic leverage, while the U.S. military has launched intensive strikes on Iranian naval forces and infrastructure. These hostilities have immediately disrupted global energy markets: shipping traffic dropped 70%, Brent crude spiked 13%, natural gas surged 50%, and crude surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in four years. Experts characterize this as the largest global oil disruption in history—three times larger than the 1973 Arab embargo—prompting the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of emergency reserves and forcing shipping reroutes around Africa with substantial cost and delay implications.
-
147.
The escalating conflict in Iran is triggering a cascading global humanitarian crisis through supply chain disruptions and market shocks. Critical disruptions include damage to Dubai's International Humanitarian City (the world's primary disaster aid logistics hub), plus three interconnected market shocks—currency depreciation strengthening the dollar, disruptions to global fertilizer supplies through Gulf export routes, and volatile oil price spikes exceeding $110/barrel—that are compounding crises in Sudan, Gaza, and beyond. The war has displaced 3.2 million people within Iran and 700,000 in Lebanon, straining shelters and aid systems already weakened by 60 percent cuts to U.S. humanitarian funding. Without urgent action to release $5.5 billion Congress appropriated for humanitarian response, the convergence of logistics gridlock, resource scarcity, and mass displacement risks pushing millions of vulnerable populations from crisis into famine.
-
148.
The emerging era of 'precise mass' warfare—characterized by high-volume deployment of low-cost, precision-guided drones—is reshaping military doctrine, with Iran's Shahed-136 campaign demonstrating lessons learned from Ukraine's four-year conflict. The U.S. has responded by fast-tracking LUCAS, a drone reverse-engineered from the Iranian Shahed-136 and deployed operationally in December 2025, reflecting Pentagon internalization of these combat lessons. A critical strategic vulnerability emerges from cost-exchange asymmetry: defensive systems like Patriot missiles ($4 million each) cost over 100 times more than the drones they intercept ($35,000), creating unsustainable logistics and stockpile depletion for regional defenders. With Russia targeting 1,000 daily Shahed-equivalent production and global proliferation of low-cost drone manufacturing, precise mass will likely become a permanent feature of warfare, forcing militaries to restructure procurement priorities and production capacity.
-
149.
The article examines heightened U.S. homeland security risks following strikes on Iran, arguing that Iran's history of state-sponsored terrorism combined with current motivations for retaliation increases the likelihood of asymmetric attacks on American soil through lone-wolf operatives, cyberattacks, and infrastructure sabotage. CFR counterterrorism expert Bruce Hoffman provides evidence of Iran's past operations within the U.S., including assassination attempts on dissidents and sophisticated cyber capabilities, establishing the credibility of current threats. The article warns that upcoming high-profile events like the World Cup and the U.S. bicentennial could serve as ideal targets for Iranian retaliation, while noting that DHS's resource shift toward immigration enforcement and workforce cuts have compromised counterterrorism capabilities. Hoffman advocates for substantially increased DHS resources and attention to counterterrorism, highlighting the absence of updated terrorism threat alerts since the Iran strikes as evidence of inadequate threat communication. The analysis underscores the critical need for prioritizing counterterrorism readiness given the unprecedented security challenges posed by state-sponsored threats.
-
150.
Iran has significantly accelerated its nuclear enrichment to nearly weapons-grade levels (60%), moving closer to developing a nuclear weapon in a matter of months, prompting U.S.-Israeli military strikes in 2025-2026 against key facilities like Natanz. Despite renewed diplomatic talks in early 2026, negotiations collapsed as the two countries launched a large-scale offensive, with the United States and Israel citing Iran as an imminent threat to regional security. Iran's possession of the Middle East's largest ballistic missile arsenal—capable of striking targets 2,000+ kilometers away—combined with its rapid nuclear advancement, poses acute risks to Israel and U.S. interests in the region. A nuclear-armed Iran would likely trigger a dangerous regional arms race, embolden more aggressive Iranian foreign policy in partnership with China and Russia, and destabilize the entire Middle East.
-
151.
The timeline documents the transformation of U.S.-Iran relations from postwar alliance to profound antagonism following Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, with escalating tensions spanning proxy conflicts, failed nuclear diplomacy initiatives, and repeated failed attempts at normalization. The 2025-2026 period marks a critical escalation, with U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (June 2025) and a subsequent massive military campaign (February 2026) resulting in Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination and Iranian retaliatory strikes across the Persian Gulf. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdown of diplomatic channels signal regional conflict with severe global economic consequences, particularly for energy markets. This represents a fundamental shift from containment and deterrence to direct kinetic warfare, with no visible diplomatic off-ramp.
-
152.
Iran's political system concentrates ultimate authority in the Supreme Leader, who commands military and security forces while remaining nominally accountable to an Assembly of Experts. Recent developments—including mass anti-government protests (late 2025–early 2026), Israeli military strikes (June 2025), and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei followed by his son Mojtaba's succession (February 2026)—have raised questions about regime viability despite its institutional mechanisms for control. Hard-liners have consolidated parliamentary power and the Guardian Council effectively filters candidates to exclude reformists, yet these structures face mounting pressure from both internal unrest and external military threats. Mojtaba's appointment suggests likely continuity of hard-line policies, though some analysts speculate he could pursue pragmatic consensus-building with reformists. The regime maintains control through its security apparatus, but shrinking public support and demonstrated military vulnerabilities underscore ongoing systemic fragility.
-
153.
Stuart Reid's career at Foreign Affairs and CFR demonstrates the importance of clear writing for conveying complex foreign policy concepts and building regional expertise. His research on the CIA's role in Cold War Congo illustrates how historical analysis informs contemporary U.S. policy in Africa. Reid emphasizes that strong writing skills, practical experience, and the ability to add value to organizations are more important than advanced degrees for foreign policy professionals. His trajectory shows how seemingly serendipitous experiences—including a visit to Senegal—can develop deep regional expertise and influence policy discourse.
-
154.
Anthropic's refusal to accept Pentagon contract terms allowing mass surveillance and autonomous weapons deployment resulted in the company being designated a national security supply chain risk—a designation critics argue lacks legal authority and represents political retaliation. The company's principled stance contrasts sharply with OpenAI's capitulation and occurs as Chinese AI firms surge ahead with cheaper, more accessible models, creating a perverse incentive where defense contractors now face greater regulatory risk using American AI compared to Chinese alternatives. The dispute reveals dangerous gaps in democratic oversight: Congress remains largely absent, the defense industry stays silent, and the Pentagon has demonstrated it will weaponize procurement authorities against American companies that challenge executive authority. These actions ultimately undermine U.S. credibility and competitive standing in AI at a moment when trust in American tech sector independence is critical.
-
155.
CFR President Michael Froman explores the 'AI Sovereignty Paradox'—the tension between governments demanding unfettered access to AI for national security and private firms maintaining safety guardrails. He illustrates this through the recent Pentagon ultimatum to Anthropic to remove safeguards from Claude, which the company refused, raising fundamental questions about whether democratic societies can remain sovereign if governments deploy AI technology without constraint. At the global level, Froman documents how most countries struggle to achieve AI sovereignty while facing profound dependency on U.S. and Chinese infrastructure: the U.S. hosts 75% of global AI supercomputing capacity and invests $650 billion annually in AI, vastly outpacing other nations. The article argues that without coherent global governance frameworks, fragmented regulatory approaches could either constrain U.S. innovation or leave allies increasingly dependent on 'quasi-sovereign' solutions.
-
156.
The AI sector faces not a broad bubble but a company-specific one centered on OpenAI, which needs $660B through 2030 but cannot raise prices due to market competition and easy model switching. The real economy will likely experience a "jobless expansion"—growth without job creation—as companies prioritize AI investment while deferring hiring. Critical risks include OpenAI's 50% chance of financing crisis with spillover effects on suppliers like Oracle, unmeasured AI productivity gains amid job displacement, and the erosion of AI governance efforts due to geopolitical competition with China, leaving societal safety risks unaddressed.
-
157.
Militaries worldwide are rapidly adopting artificial intelligence while international cooperation mechanisms are faltering, as shown by declining endorsement of the REAIM summit (down to 35 countries from ~60 previously) and absent great power participation from the US and China. The gap between slow-moving diplomatic efforts at the UN and accelerating military AI deployment in active conflicts (Gaza, Ukraine) risks creating policies disconnected from technical realities, while states operate with inconsistent or minimal oversight. Middle powers that initiated REAIM (Netherlands, South Korea, Singapore, Spain) are now positioned to establish international norms and confidence-building measures on military AI, despite uncertainty about US-NATO relations. Without continued international dialogue and great power engagement, states will deploy AI systems with minimal coordination, missing opportunities for shared best practices and increasing risks of uncoordinated military escalation.
-
158.
The United States must establish credible AI assurance frameworks—including independent validation, incident reporting, and authentication standards—to set global standards and gain strategic competitive advantage before other nations. Evidence from recent AI failures like OpenClaw demonstrates that ungoverned AI systems create cascading risks, while historical precedents in aviation and finance show how trust infrastructure becomes a durable competitive moat. Procurement decisions made in the next three years will create generational dependencies; the country establishing trustworthy frameworks first will command market premiums, influence allied standards, and enable scaled deployment without reactive crisis legislation.
-
159.
Cat Buchatskiy, a Ukrainian who left U.S. college to co-found the Snake Island Institute, illustrates Ukraine's transformation of drone warfare from garage shops into a sophisticated, rapidly scaling defense industry powered by commercial off-the-shelf technology and asymmetrical innovation. Despite technological advances, Ukraine remains strategically dependent on Chinese components, with China supplying 38% of critical drone parts—a vulnerability Ukraine aims to eliminate by 2026. Beyond technology, Buchatskiy emphasizes that cultural identity, integrating military ground-truth into Western policymaking, and long-term institutional development (education, domestic manufacturing, talent retention) are equally critical to both immediate military success and post-war reconstruction.
-
160.
The Ukraine war exemplifies how modern great power alliances operate as flexible, transactional partnerships rather than rigid ideological blocs. Russia's coalition—comprising Chinese material support for drone production, Iranian weapons technology, North Korean troops and munitions, and cash payments—proves resilient despite strategic limitations, while the Western alliance fractures under Trump's policy shift toward mediation and reduced US military support. Both coalitions are driven by pragmatic interests (China's multipolarity vision, North Korea's isolation-breaking and combat experience, Iran's access to cash) and shared opposition to Western hegemony, making them less stable than Cold War arrangements. Europe's response demonstrates that security partnerships now require demonstrated strategic value and self-sufficiency rather than institutional guarantees alone. Ukraine's long-term defense ultimately depends on sustained European commitment and Ukraine's capacity to function as an armed, independent actor capable of defending itself and serving as a valuable strategic partner.
-
161.
Max Boot argues that while U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have achieved tactical success in degrading Iran's military capabilities, Operation Epic Fury reveals a critical strategic gap: undefined war objectives, inability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and failure to translate precision bombing into political outcomes. Iran has asymmetrically expanded the war geographically while effectively blockading global oil supplies, exploiting the cost disparity where $3 million Patriot missiles counter $25-50K drones. The operation exposes broader U.S. vulnerabilities including depleted munitions stockpiles (burning through years of production in weeks) and global weapons shortages that weaken readiness against China and other major adversaries. Boot concludes this war of choice demonstrates the limits of military power and calls for more cautious exercise of force, emphasizing the persistent post-Cold War problem of translating tactical military success into strategic political victory.
-
162.
The Lend-Lease Act of 1941 was President Roosevelt's pivotal foreign policy decision to supply military aid to Britain without formally entering World War II, representing a crucial shift from American isolationism. Roosevelt overcame fierce congressional and public opposition from isolationists like Charles Lindbergh by persuasively framing the program as an "arsenal of democracy"—keeping America out of war while preventing Nazi victory. The act authorized $50 billion in aid after Churchill warned Roosevelt that Britain was bankrupt and unable to purchase weapons, and it passed Congress by a 2-to-1 margin following a contentious three-month debate. Historians credit Lend-Lease, combined with the draft, as essential to enabling U.S. industrial mobilization and preventing German conquest of Britain, which would have left America unprepared and isolated. The decision exemplifies how effective strategic messaging and allied pressure can overcome domestic isolationism when national security demands intervention.
-
163.
This CFR podcast analyzes Trump's March 2026 decision to launch large-scale military strikes against Iran, arguing that the scope of targets—including the Supreme Leader and broad military/civilian leadership—indicates regime change goals despite official denials that this is merely a nuclear containment operation. Negotiations mediated by Oman failed immediately before the attack, and Iran is now pursuing asymmetric warfare focused on survival rather than victory, with threats of terrorism and proxy retaliation spreading across the region. Critical risks include regime collapse without a viable succession plan (monarchy, military, or democracy all uncertain), potential regional chaos comparable to post-Saddam Iraq or post-Qaddafi Libya, and broader global implications as US military capacity becomes stretched, potentially emboldening China on Taiwan and Russia in Ukraine. The expert emphasizes the absence of a coherent endgame strategy, with Trump's mixed messaging and the lack of credible political alternatives suggesting the conflict could devolve into prolonged asymmetric warfare or chaotic state failure. Without a clear succession plan or exit conditions, this campaign risks producing precisely the instability and anti-American sentiment that Gulf allies warned against, with humanitarian and geopolitical consequences extending well beyond Iran.
-
164.
The Trump administration is executing a maximum pressure campaign against Cuba by blocking oil supplies through Venezuelan collapse and tariff threats to halt further imports, forcing the regime toward negotiations or collapse. The strategy has triggered a cascading humanitarian crisis—widespread power blackouts, water shortages, and street-level subsistence activities—while the administration's true objectives remain ambiguous, ranging from full regime change to narrower foreign policy concessions (breaking ties with Russia/China). Preliminary back channel talks with Raul Castro's family reportedly continue, but remain in early stages as conditions deteriorate rapidly, leaving ordinary Cubans caught between U.S. pressure and a government unlikely to yield power voluntarily.
-
165.
Nixon's 1972 visit to China, orchestrated through secret channels by National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, fundamentally shifted U.S. foreign policy from decades of isolation toward pragmatic great power diplomacy. Without a pre-agreed agenda or formal recognition, the Shanghai Communiqué signaled America's willingness to engage ideological adversaries when strategic interests aligned. The opening to China pressured the Soviet Union, reduced Chinese support for North Vietnam, and began reshaping American perceptions of China from communist threat to economic partner. Though formal recognition came later under Carter, the visit demonstrated that direct dialogue with adversaries can yield diplomatic and geopolitical benefits regardless of ideological differences.
-
166.
Dr. Anwar Gargash argues that Iran's campaign of over 2,000 missile and drone attacks against Gulf states—while falsely claiming to target US military facilities—represents a strategic miscalculation that strengthens, rather than weakens, US-Gulf defense partnerships and has permanently shifted regional threat perceptions toward Iran. Evidence shows that 85-93% of Iranian attacks deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure (airports, apartment buildings, highways) and traditional mediators like the UAE, Qatar, and Oman who sought diplomatic solutions, undermining Iran's credibility as an aggrieved party. The implication is a fundamental realignment of Gulf security strategy: Iran is now viewed as the primary regional threat for decades; Gulf states are deepening US security commitments while expanding defense capabilities in missiles, drones, and cyber; and any future resolution must include enforceable guarantees constraining Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
-
167.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates the largest oil supply disruption in history—cutting 10-11 million barrels daily and pushing prices above $100/barrel despite strategic petroleum releases. Macroeconomic consequences threaten U.S. growth (30+ basis point slowdown, potential recession risk) and Gulf economies (5-14% GDP contractions), undermining regional diversification efforts. Despite U.S. energy independence gains, global market integration exposes America to Middle Eastern supply shocks, forcing the administration to reconsider its pivot away from the region and deepen security commitments to vulnerable Gulf allies. The panel identifies multiple escalation risks, including potential strikes on Iranian export infrastructure, while noting eased Russian sanctions create contradictory incentives.
-
168.
Secretary of State William Seward negotiated the 1867 purchase of Russian America (Alaska) for $7.2 million through a night-long negotiation with Russian minister Baron Eduard de Stoeckl. Critics initially mocked the deal as "Seward's Folly," viewing it as wasteful spending on a frozen wasteland, but the acquisition proved strategically brilliant by expanding U.S. territory, pushing Russia out of North America, and generating enormous wealth through subsequent gold and oil discoveries. Seward's vision was to dominate the northern Pacific and establish U.S. strategic control over trade routes to Asia, reflecting his broader Manifest Destiny ambitions. The deal ultimately demonstrated that territorial expansion requires patience and foresight to recognize long-term strategic value despite immediate criticism.
-
169.
The 70th UN Commission on the Status of Women adopted comprehensive Agreed Conclusions to enhance legal access and justice for women and girls, prioritizing violence prevention (including online), reform of discriminatory national laws, and gender-responsive budgeting. The adoption marked a historic first: it required a recorded vote (37 in favor, 1 against) rather than consensus after the United States objected to language on gender definitions and reproductive health rights. The outcome demonstrates strong international commitment to gender equality and legal reform, though implementation faces challenges from funding constraints and ongoing political polarization over women's rights.
-
170.
The U.S. federal statistical system, while remaining a global benchmark, faces critical strain from flat budgets, aging IT infrastructure, and declining survey response rates precisely when policymakers need data on emerging economic security challenges. The system remains oriented toward traditional macroeconomic management but lacks adequate coverage of technological competitiveness, supply chain vulnerabilities, and economic statecraft. A November 2025 CSIS workshop confirmed growing misalignment between available government statistics and actual policy and business needs across these domains. The report concludes that sustaining U.S. competitiveness and resilience requires explicitly redesigning the federal statistical system to prioritize economic security objectives alongside traditional macroeconomic functions. This will necessitate investments in IT infrastructure modernization, governance reform, and expanded data collection in critical security-related economic domains.
-
171.
Operation Epic Fury has expended 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks—the largest single-campaign expenditure in U.S. naval history—depleting approximately half of available regional launchers at a cost of $3.6 million per missile. The Navy can only replenish 110 Tomahawks annually despite possessing low-3,000s stockpiles, and ships cannot reload at sea, requiring extended port maintenance. This accelerated depletion creates near-term strategic vulnerability for the United States in other theaters, particularly the Western Pacific, as inventory constraints may limit future military options and contingency response capacity.
-
172.
Chatham House is screening "The President’s Cake," an Oscar-shortlisted Iraqi film, which illustrates how authoritarian regimes maintain power not only through coercion but also via everyday social practices that reinforce compliance. Set during Saddam Hussein's rule, the film provides insights into state-society dynamics and the long-term legacies of political control. A post-screening discussion with the director and Iraq experts will further explore these themes, drawing lessons for understanding contemporary political trajectories and prospects for reform in the Middle East.
-
173.
The Houthis' March 28 missile attack on Israel represents a significant escalation that reflects Iran's broader strategy of activating allied groups across the Middle East. This involvement threatens critical Red Sea shipping lanes and could trigger renewed large-scale Saudi-Houthi conflict worse than previous rounds of fighting. The escalation directly endangers Yemen's fragile peace efforts and threatens to deepen the humanitarian crisis affecting millions of civilians already facing severe food insecurity and limited healthcare access. The potential expansion of Houthi operations to target GCC infrastructure and Western military bases could dramatically increase regional instability and disrupt global energy supplies and shipping costs.
-
174.
Russia's invasion is accelerating Ukraine's internal transformation beyond the military conflict itself, destroying existing power structures rooted in old rules and vested interests. The war has catalyzed strong societal demand and a new generation of policymakers to establish reformed governance frameworks. International support for Ukraine's defense creates a historic opportunity for systemic renewal, making significant institutional change inevitable alongside military resilience.
-
175.
The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent Gaza war reveal the failure of international policy on the Israel-Palestine conflict, particularly the approach of pursuing Arab normalization agreements with Israel without addressing Palestinian grievances. Recent decades have seen international actors deprioritize the peace process while focusing elsewhere, enabling continued Israeli settlement expansion and Palestinian governance challenges. The article argues this unsustainable strategy demonstrates that durable conflict resolution requires addressing the underlying political causes rather than pursuing economic partnerships or diplomatic sidelines.
-
176.
Assad's regime collapse in December 2024 exposed the weakness of the Syrian state and its allies—Iran and Russia—while revealing the failure of Western policy approaches. The transition creates both opportunities and threats for neighboring countries, particularly regarding regional instability and the weakening of non-state actors like Hezbollah, which threatens Lebanon's governance. A successful path forward requires ensuring the political transition remains Syrian-led, enabling positive regional contributions, and avoiding repetition of past policy mistakes. Neighboring states like Jordan face additional challenges from Trump administration support for Israel, which may have destabilizing effects on the West Bank and regional security.
-
177.The Iran war should boost security cooperation by US Pacific allies like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea (Chatham House)
The Iran war is forcing the US to redeploy critical military assets from East Asia, causing Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to question US reliability as their security partner. This vulnerability is evident in South Korea's loss of THAAD systems, Japan's troop reductions, concerns about munitions supply, and economic pressure from soaring oil prices. The article advocates for establishing a formal trilateral security arrangement among these three countries to improve military interoperability, intelligence sharing, and coordination, reducing dependence on the potentially overstretched US and better countering Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific.
-
178.
Governments are shifting from market-driven incentives to direct equity stakes in critical minerals mining to secure supply against Chinese dominance and geopolitical volatility. The US is leading with $25+ billion invested across funding mechanisms, aiming for control through board seats and export agreements, while the UK and EU are following suit despite higher political and financial risks. Governments must increase investment scale and extend equity strategies beyond borders, combining financial control with democratic oversight of ESG standards, to protect manufacturing jobs and industrial competitiveness without pursuing profits, while balancing these needs with resource-exporting nations' sovereignty.
-
179.The Iran war is exacting a heavy toll on Gulf oil and gas exporters – and creating risk and opportunity in North Africa (Chatham House)
The US-Israeli war with Iran is severely disrupting Gulf oil and gas exports by restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major exporters like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iraq to rely on limited alternative pipeline routes. While Gulf states may recover some losses through higher oil prices, their already-strained fiscal positions and disrupted long-term energy expansion projects face significant uncertainty. The conflict creates both risks—particularly for energy-dependent Egypt facing higher import costs—and opportunities, such as Egypt's ability to provide alternative logistics routes and benefit from higher fertilizer prices. The broader implication is heightened vulnerability in a region whose economies remain heavily dependent on oil and gas exports despite diversification efforts.
-
180.Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK (Chatham House)
President Alexander Stubb of Finland characterizes Brexit as a 'colossal mistake' but advocates for pragmatic, flexible EU-UK partnerships rather than continued punitive measures. He calls for renewed collaboration in security, technology, customs, and the internal market, emphasizing that Europe and the UK share fundamental values and strategic interests. Stubb's remarks reflect a shift away from binary in-or-out thinking toward customizable integration arrangements that could strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy amid geopolitical pressures from Russia. The statement suggests an emerging consensus among European leaders that rebuilding constructive UK relations is essential for addressing common challenges in competition, climate, and security.
-
181.
China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), approved by the National People's Congress, prioritizes clean energy targets over explicit emission caps and reinforces China's dominance in global green technology production. The plan reflects China's dual strategic interests in advancing climate and clean tech capabilities while positioning itself geopolitically in the context of global supply chains and international competition. As the world's largest emitter and technology manufacturer, China's clean energy commitments have implications extending beyond climate mitigation to broader economic resilience and competitive advantage in emerging industries. The plan's emphasis on economic resilience suggests China is balancing climate goals with supply chain security concerns amid geopolitical tensions. Understanding this plan is critical for assessing both global climate progress and the shifting dynamics of technology competition and international relations.
-
182.
The article argues that climate change poses a greater existential threat to Greenland than Trump's geopolitical interest in acquiring the territory for critical minerals. The Arctic warms four times faster than the global average, with Greenland's ice sheet losing mass at an accelerating rate and permafrost thaw threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Since Greenland's economy heavily depends on fisheries (90% of exports), and Greenlanders value collective land stewardship rooted in Inuit traditions, local leaders emphasize that mining must align with high environmental standards and local benefit—not become a resource frontier driven by foreign geopolitical interests and loose environmental safeguards.
-
183.
The Trump administration's renewed global activism, exemplified by military strikes on Iran with Israel, has destabilized international alliances and exposed the failure of traditional deterrence strategies. US equivocation on European security commitments is forcing allies like Britain and Canada to reassess their defense spending and strategic autonomy, while the administration's prioritization of economic security over trade liberalization is prompting countries worldwide to shift toward self-sufficiency. These shifts are reshaping the global order, threatening emerging markets dependent on open trade while expanding US regional influence in Latin America and beyond.
-
184.
Africa's abundance of critical minerals—30% of global reserves—positions the continent as an economic power increasingly capable of managing its wealth without Western paternalistic intervention. Contrary to Western concerns about Chinese exploitation or corrupt governance, African nations like Burkina Faso are actively nationalizing mineral assets and negotiating with global competitors to serve their national interests, much as historical African rulers played European traders against each other to raise prices. The article argues that Western assumptions about Africa requiring moral guardianship echo outdated colonial logic designed to serve external rather than African interests. As African economies demonstrate sophisticated resource governance and negotiating power, the critical shift needed is Western recognition of African agency and willingness to engage these economies as equals rather than inferiors requiring oversight.
-
185.
The article uses Britain's 1930s rearmament debate—between Chamberlain's cautious approach (protecting the economy) and Churchill's rapid mobilization—as a lens for analyzing today's security dilemma. As external threats became undeniable, public opinion shifted from fearing war to fearing defeat, ultimately forcing adoption of faster rearmament and state intervention. Britain today faces the parallel challenge of accelerating defense spending (currently targeted at 3.5% by 2035, which experts argue is too slow) while managing economic constraints and building public support through transparent threat communication. The article suggests three policy pathways: positioning defense spending as economic stimulus through regional development and innovation, revising outdated public accounting rules that discourage long-term defense contracts, and reaffirming democracy itself as the primary value worth defending. Successfully navigating this requires overcoming institutional inertia and low political trust to mobilize the "collective national endeavour" that Churchill once demanded.
-
186.
Marion Messmer argues that peace agreements negotiated with meaningful women's participation are more durable and effective than those without. She contextualizes this within an increasingly complex security environment where nuclear proliferation, accessible military technology, and AI-enabled warfare create unprecedented challenges for conflict resolution. Messmer highlights her own experience as an underestimated woman in the male-dominated security field, suggesting that broader inclusion of women in peace and security negotiations could yield stronger, more stable outcomes.
-
187.
The US-Israel military campaign against Iran and the flawed Trump Gaza peace plan have accelerated Gulf Cooperation Council states' loss of confidence in American security guarantees, particularly following Iranian retaliatory strikes against all six GCC nations. The Trump plan, while supported by GCC members, lacks enforcement mechanisms, excludes Palestinians from governance, and is unlikely to resolve the underlying territorial and political disputes that fuel regional conflict. Faced with ongoing Israeli military operations, settler violence, and demonstrated US unwillingness to constrain Israeli actions, GCC states are now compelled to diversify their security partnerships and embrace independent hard-power capabilities to protect their interests amid accelerating regional instability.
-
188.
The article argues that declining US commitment to the post-WWII international trade order—evidenced by recent political statements prioritizing domestic economic security—risks accelerating global protectionism and slower trade growth. Historically, global trade has flourished under 'hegemonic stability' when a single great power (Britain under Pax Britannica, the US under Pax Americana) maintained an open international order; without such leadership, protectionist measures—already rising since 2012—will outpace liberalizing ones. Without this stabilizing force, the author warns of a destructive cycle where weakening trade growth triggers more protectionism, which further suppresses trade. Emerging and developing 'small, open economies' will suffer most, as they depend on integration into larger global markets for growth.
-
189.
This interview with a cartographer challenges conventional cartography for imposing artificial clarity on inherently complex geopolitical realities. The author argues that standard map projections and crisp boundary lines reinforce misleading mental models—particularly the hemispheric thinking rooted in the Monroe Doctrine—that may underpin modern geopolitical strategies. Real-world sovereignty operates on spectrums rather than binaries: oceanic claims involve graduated zones, disputed territories are often strategically frozen, and populations within borders are heterogeneous. Cartography should visually represent this ambiguity and multiplicity rather than simplify it, enabling more accurate understanding of territorial disputes. Digital mapping tools now allow domain experts to create contextual, specialized maps rather than defaulting to universal conventions that obscure critical nuances essential for sound policymaking.
-
190.Could Vietnam’s new South China Sea bases open a ‘Pandora’s box’ of competitive island building? (Chatham House)
Vietnam is rapidly expanding military bases across 21 reefs and shoals in the contested Spratly Islands, constructing harbours and airstrips to match China's militarization efforts begun a decade earlier. According to satellite imagery and AMTI analysis, Vietnam is quickly catching up to China's scale of infrastructure development. The Spratly Islands are strategically vital—one-third of global shipping passes through the region, and competing claims from six countries (Vietnam, China, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei) reflect competition for fishing grounds and untapped oil and gas reserves. Vietnam's expansion risks opening a competitive arms race in South China Sea island-building, potentially escalating tensions and destabilizing the region.
-
191.
Britain has committed to increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 following its Strategic Defence Review, yet faces a substantial funding gap between the review's 62 recommendations and available budget, with the National Audit Office identifying a pre-existing £17 billion deficit. The government's repeated delays in publishing its Defence Investment Plan—originally promised for autumn 2025, then Christmas, now possibly Easter 2026—reveal the tension between ambitious military objectives and fiscal constraints. Britain now faces four difficult choices: significantly increase spending like Germany, abandon its nuclear deterrent, reduce conventional forces and rely more on NATO allies, or pursue further efficiency savings. The resolution will determine whether Britain can maintain its position as Europe's leading military power amid rising Russian threats and growing uncertainty about US commitment to NATO.
-
192.
This Chatham House book review collection examines how historical narratives and ideological frameworks shape contemporary geopolitical policy and international relations. Key evidence includes: analysis of three decades of UN climate negotiations demonstrating how individual personalities and multilateral cooperation drive progress despite US unpredictability; the enduring influence of colonial partition histories on modern Asian politics and conflicts; the MAGA movement's diverse ideological roots shaping U.S. foreign policy direction; and the translation of competing China narratives in academia into more hawkish policy positions. The works collectively highlight that policymakers must understand historical context and competing narratives to develop informed, nuanced strategies for contemporary geopolitical challenges.
-
193.Kazakhstan referendum: The new constitution demonstrates a diminishing interest in Western values (Chatham House)
Kazakhstan's constitutional referendum, approved on 15 March, represents a strategic shift away from Western liberal economic models toward a China-like institutional system. President Tokayev, drawing on his diplomatic experience in China, is restructuring governance to emphasize state-led economies and technocratic authoritarianism while strengthening presidential power through enhanced appointment authority and requiring constitutional amendments by referendum rather than parliament. This constitutional realignment carries significant geopolitical implications: Russia and China view Tokayev as a stabilizing partner likely to extend his tenure, while foreign investors face uncertainty as domestic law may now supersede international treaties. Human rights advocates express concerns that the changes provide government tools to restrict freedoms, and the removal of international law precedence could complicate investor protections and international arbitration.
-
194.
The NPT review conference in April 2026 faces unprecedented obstacles to advancing nuclear disarmament, as the collapse of the New START treaty (expired February 2026) leaves the US and Russia without stockpile limits for the first time in decades. Trump administration policies—including strikes on Iranian facilities, threats to resume nuclear testing, and uncertainty over NATO commitments—coupled with allegations of Chinese nuclear testing, threaten to trigger a new arms race and accelerate weapons deployment into space. European allies, losing confidence in US extended deterrence guarantees, are reportedly seeking alternative security arrangements, further fracturing the international arms control framework that has governed nuclear weapons for five decades.
-
195.
China dominates critical mineral supply chains, controlling over 70 percent of cobalt and lithium production and nearly all graphite, creating strategic vulnerabilities for US semiconductors, AI, and defense applications. The article argues that decades of Chinese investment ($57 billion since 2000) combined with predatory pricing tactics have widened the supply gap while the US dismantled domestic mining capacity. Three recent initiatives—Project Vault ($12 billion strategic stockpile), FORGE (successor to the Minerals Security Partnership), and the Dominance Act—propose a comprehensive multilateral approach combining domestic production, international partnerships, and higher labor/environmental standards to reduce China's leverage.
-
196.
Europe faces a critical threat from nationalist populist parties, which have gained power in seven EU member states and command roughly 25% continent-wide support. Rather than seeking to exit the EU, these far-right forces now aim to win power within European institutions and hollow out integration from inside—a strategy backed by Putin's Russia and Trump's America as part of their broader efforts to recreate spheres of influence. The article highlights how far-right blocs in the European Parliament successfully weakened the EU's climate and sustainability achievements in November 2025, demonstrating their growing influence over European policy. Hungary's April 2026 election is presented as a pivotal test case: if nationalist forces like Viktor Orbán's prevail, European foreign policy consensus and defense cooperation would fracture, leaving the continent vulnerable to external pressure. A united Europe capable of containing these forces at the margins has the capacity to counter Russian and American pressure; a fractured Europe would become easy prey for both powers.
-
197.Leadership and representation in international relations: building on women’s legacy (Chatham House)
This Chatham House panel explores women's historical contributions to international relations and diplomacy over the past century, examining how current practitioners can build on this legacy while advancing gender equity. The discussion addresses career paths, representation, allyship, and systemic barriers to women's leadership in international affairs. Panelists emphasize that achieving inclusive representation and supporting the next generation of female diplomats and academics is essential for strengthening international relations practice and policy outcomes.
-
198.
President Ahmed al-Sharaa outlines Syria's post-Assad transition strategy, focusing on reconstruction and diplomatic re-engagement following the regime's fall in late 2024. His government seeks to reintegrate Syria into the international community after years of isolation while navigating ongoing regional volatility and the country's stance in Middle East conflicts. Al-Sharaa's vision encompasses political and economic reforms, building accountable state institutions, and establishing Syria as a stabilizing force in regional affairs. This represents a critical shift from Syria's pariah status, with significant implications for regional security dynamics and international relations normalization. Success hinges on balancing domestic governance reforms with strategic positioning within a volatile geopolitical environment.
-
199.
Hungary's April 2026 elections present Prime Minister Viktor Orbán with his strongest electoral challenge in over 15 years, as Péter Magyar's centrist TISZA movement—polling at competitive levels—offers a stark pro-EU alternative. Orbán's 15-year tenure has been marked by hardline immigration policies, judicial independence erosion, and close alignment with Russia, generating sustained EU friction and democratic backsliding concerns. A Magyar victory would fundamentally reorient Hungary's foreign policy toward European integration and away from Russian alignment, potentially signaling a broader European pivot away from right-leaning populism. The election outcome carries implications beyond Hungary, affecting broader EU political currents and the future trajectory of European governance and democratic standards.
-
200.
The UK-US 'special relationship' faces unprecedented strain as the Trump administration adopts a transactional approach to alliances, threatening traditional bilateral cooperation and the rules-based international order. The House of Lords inquiry identifies critical implications for British foreign, defense, and economic policy, highlighting the divergence between Washington's shifting priorities and London's security and economic interests. UK policymakers must urgently adapt their strategies to a more volatile transatlantic environment, where the continuity of the partnership can no longer be assumed and strategic uncertainty now defines the bilateral relationship.
-
201.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), grassroots mutual aid networks, have been awarded the 2025 Chatham House Prize for their critical humanitarian role during the country's devastating war. Since April 2023, the conflict has displaced over 13 million people and left 33 million—two-thirds of Sudan's population—in acute need of assistance, with state institutions largely collapsed. The ERRs provide essential supplies and infrastructure repairs in areas inaccessible to international organizations, operating under constant threat from warring parties while maintaining strict impartiality. The award recognition demonstrates how local, community-based humanitarian networks become lifelines when formal institutions fail and international organizations cannot reach vulnerable populations. This underscores the policy imperative to support and protect grassroots humanitarian actors as essential components of complex emergency response.
-
202.
The US-China relationship has become defined by intensifying geopolitical competition with recurring crises that test diplomatic capabilities on both sides. Recent events including US military action in Iran, postponed diplomatic visits, and a fracturing global order have created uncertainty about the sustainability of bilateral cooperation amid deep strategic rivalry. Ambassador Nicholas Burns discusses how Washington can protect core national interests while exploring limited cooperation opportunities, with critical implications for US allies, Europe, and middle powers navigating their own relationships with both superpowers.
-
203.
President Stubb argues that Europe needs more flexible integration mechanisms to address geopolitical, economic, and technological challenges while maintaining unity and shared purpose. He proposes that differentiated integration—allowing variable participation across policy areas like defense, energy, technology, and economic security—could strengthen the EU's resilience and competitiveness. This pragmatic approach would enable European countries to respond more effectively to shifting global alliances and rising tensions while protecting European interests and values.
-
204.
The escalating US-Israel-Iran war threatens Iraq's stability due to its geographic position between belligerents and hosting of US interests. Iran-aligned groups, including elements of the Popular Mobilization Forces, have already targeted US facilities and attempted to breach the US embassy in Baghdad, prompting American military response and raising escalation risks. Beyond security concerns, Iraq's economy is vulnerable to regional disruption, including threats to energy infrastructure, reduced oil exports, and dependence on Iranian energy imports that could trigger public unrest. Weakened by stalled post-election government formation, Iraq's political leadership is poorly positioned to manage these external pressures or prevent domestic spillover from regional conflict.
-
205.
Ukraine's defense of its cultural, linguistic, and religious sovereignty against Russian imperial influence is essential for achieving durable peace. Since 2014, Ukraine has systematically dismantled Russian influence through de-communization laws, Ukrainian language mandates in public institutions, and the Orthodox Church's independence from Moscow—actions Russia now targets through cultural destruction and demands for Russian as an official language. These identity protection measures serve dual purposes: safeguarding national security and meeting EU accession standards on minority rights. Ukraine's ability to maintain sovereignty over its domestic affairs must be explicitly protected in future peace agreements to prevent Kremlin reassertion of imperial control.
-
206.
The escalation between the U.S., Israel, and Iran creates competing strategic demands that threaten Western unity in supporting Ukraine, with U.S. attention and resources potentially diverted from Ukraine assistance. Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions could paradoxically strengthen Russia's financial position despite sanctions, while an Iranian regime collapse might weaken Russian support. The webinar examines critical policy tensions: whether the West can maintain coordinated Ukraine support amid Middle East conflicts, and how EU energy dependencies on Russian LNG could undermine future peace negotiation leverage with Moscow.
-
207.
West Africa faces profound transnational insecurity from the Lake Chad Basin to Mali, exacerbated by recent coups that have fragmented regional political unity and undermined multilateral cooperation frameworks like the G5 Sahel. The decline of coordinated security mechanisms has stalled progress on critical issues including cross-border military operations, intelligence sharing, and tackling illicit finance flows that sustain extremist groups. Nigerian and Ghanaian foreign ministers propose strategies addressing root causes of rising violent extremism through restored bilateral relations and revived regional cooperation mechanisms. Mali's ongoing fuel blockade demonstrates the unavoidable interdependence of landlocked states, making collective security cooperation essential for all nations in the region. Effective solutions require rebuilding trust and practical mechanisms for cross-border coordination amid the current political crisis.
-
208.
Kenya is strategically expanding its foreign policy to position itself as a champion of African agency and continental integration, pursuing a pragmatic multi-alliance approach that balances partnerships with the US, EU, China, India, and Gulf states without aligning with competing geopolitical blocs. The speech emphasizes Kenya's role as the East African Community's largest economy and regional anchor state, prioritizing the AfCFTA, intra-African trade, and continental unity as essential pathways to economic growth and security in an increasingly contested global order. Kenya's economic recovery (5% GDP growth, record forex reserves of USD 14.6 billion) demonstrates that diversified partnerships and regional leadership can deliver tangible development gains, supporting the core argument that African states must assert themselves as strategic actors capable of shaping their own outcomes rather than remaining passive recipients of external competition.
-
209.
Coordinated US-Israel military strikes on Iran on February 28 were explicitly aimed at regime change, with President Trump calling for domestic uprising while Iran responded with counter-strikes targeting Israeli and US Gulf facilities. The rapid escalation creates significant risk of broader regional conflict, with critical uncertainties about how far Washington and Tel Aviv will pursue regime change objectives and whether other Middle Eastern actors will become militarily involved. De-escalation pathways remain uncertain amid the dual pressures of escalating military posturing and potential for Iran's domestic mobilization in response.
-
210.The UK critical minerals strategy: Building national resilience through global political and commercial collaboration (Chatham House)
The UK Critical Minerals Strategy addresses vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains essential to manufacturing, clean energy, and industrial competitiveness by strengthening domestic capabilities while deepening international partnerships. Emerging amid intensifying geopolitical competition and rising demand, the strategy seeks to build national resilience while maintaining openness and collaboration with partner countries and industry. The policy aims to balance securing supply chains with risk management and strategic positioning in an increasingly contested global minerals landscape.
-
211.
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, addresses Chatham House on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, analyzing the military evolution of the conflict and prospects for resolution. He outlines a coordinated European security strategy emphasizing the UK's strategic role and Ukraine's contribution to continental defense and deterrence capabilities. The analysis positions military strength and coordinated hard power as central to both resolving the Ukraine conflict and preventing future Russian aggression. This framing suggests that lasting European security requires integrated defense capabilities with Ukraine's military resilience as a cornerstone of broader deterrence architecture.
-
212.
In late 2025, Belarus released 123 political prisoners including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski and activist Maria Kalesnikava as a gesture toward the Trump administration. This Chatham House webinar brings these freed prisoners together to discuss ongoing negotiations between the US and Lukashenka's regime and what effective Western policy toward Belarus should entail. The discussion centers on sustaining hopes for democratic transformation despite crushed public expectations and continued political stagnation. Key tensions emerge between pragmatic diplomatic engagement with the regime and meaningful support for democratic reform and human rights.
-
213.
Trump's conflict resolution approach prioritizes rapid dealmaking and personal legacy over substantive peace, with claims of ending eight wars that panelists characterize as largely superficial ceasefires without addressing root causes. His strategy combines maximum military pressure with abandonment of traditional U.S. values, producing mixed results—meaningful Gaza ceasefire but major Ukraine failures and credibility issues. The new Board of Peace, controlled by Trump with exclusive veto power, raises concerns about replacing UN-based multilateralism with a personalized institution. Without addressing underlying conflict drivers, these agreements lack durability beyond Trump's presidency, with panelists questioning their long-term viability and whether this transactional approach can generate genuine, lasting peace.
-
214.
Libya remains fractured between rival western and eastern administrations fifteen years after Gaddafi's fall, with the UN-supported Presidency Council attempting to orchestrate national reconciliation and elections despite contested governance structures. The country faces a worsening economic crisis with rising inflation and declining purchasing power, while managing security challenges including organized migration crime. Reconciliation efforts must balance long-term institution-building with immediate governance crises, requiring coordinated international engagement that addresses both political fragmentation and regional stability concerns. Without progress on unification, Libya risks prolonged instability that threatens regional security, economic recovery, and cross-border humanitarian issues affecting multiple neighboring states.
-
215.Defending NATO’s eastern flank: How Romania is responding to Russian aggression and European rearmament (Chatham House)
Romania's Foreign Minister Ţoiu emphasized that while Russia has suffered strategic failure in Ukraine after 1,500+ days (versus expected 3-day victory), sustained military support and European defense coordination remain critical. Romania is accelerating military modernization with €16.8 billion in EU funding and leveraging its position as NATO's eastern anchor and Europe's top natural gas producer to strengthen regional security. Beyond conventional threats, the Minister warned that Russian hybrid interference—cyberattacks, disinformation, infrastructure sabotage—requires coordinated democratic resilience and enforcement of tough sanctions on evasion. Key strategic priorities include Black Sea security cooperation, coordinated defense spending, and deepening NATO integration. The overarching message: European security depends on sustained transatlantic partnership and resolute support for Ukraine's defensive capacity, not European self-reliance outside NATO.
-
216.
Russia has systematically destroyed Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure through high-precision strikes since the full-scale invasion, critically degrading power, heating, and water systems by February 2026. These attacks aim to undermine civilian morale and force Ukraine to divert military resources to costly infrastructure repairs. Beyond immediate humanitarian impacts, the destruction threatens to trigger mass displacement that could strain Western European social systems and political cohesion. Ukraine and its partners must balance providing urgent humanitarian relief with developing long-term solutions, including decentralized energy systems capable of withstanding continued Russian strikes. Energy infrastructure protection is now a critical strategic priority for Ukraine's resilience and regional stability.
-
217.
The article argues that global trade partnerships can serve as a mechanism to promote sustainable water use and improve water governance. Recent droughts have disrupted critical supply chains—affecting commodity prices and key transportation routes like the Panama Canal and Rhine River—demonstrating the economic vulnerability to water scarcity under climate change. By recognizing water as a shared resource and implementing fair water footprints across supply chains, trade can expand access to clean water and drive environmental restoration. Coordinated strategies between importers and exporters, investor engagement with water risks, and policy reforms are essential to align trade with water security.
-
218.
The International Criminal Court has issued a policy confirming that existing international law can prosecute cyber-enabled international crimes—including genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes—without statutory amendments, as the Rome Statute is technology-neutral and applies equally to cyberattacks and kinetic operations. Key prosecution challenges include gathering evidence across jurisdictions, attributing cyber operations to perpetrators, and accessing data held by private companies, addressed through emerging frameworks like the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime and the UN Cybercrime Convention. Success requires states to build investigative capacity combining cybercrime and war crimes expertise, establish joint international investigations, secure private sector cooperation while protecting user privacy, and strengthen domestic legal frameworks for complex cyber operations.
-
219.
Haiti's security crisis extends beyond gang violence to a 'security marketplace' where weak institutions enable armed actors to control economic nodes (ports, fuel, supply corridors), requiring strategic sequencing of governance reforms before expanded military operations. The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) deployment must prioritize establishing accountability mechanisms, judicial capacity, and legitimate political authority before scaling security force operations—a lesson from comparable failures in Libya and Yemen where coercive actors were integrated into state structures without oversight, creating lasting governance collapse. Sustainable intervention depends on Haitian-led security planning with community participation, transitional justice frameworks differentiating gang members' levels of coercion, and economic reintegration pathways, complicated by global collapse of development funding (USAID eliminated, EU/UK budgets cut). The Haiti case illustrates a systemic failure: international capacity to manage state collapse and security crises has deteriorated while multilateral systems struggle without clear exit strategies or adequate resources.
-
220.
Europe's populist and far-right parties are gaining electoral traction by positioning themselves as pragmatic realists addressing genuine voter concerns about immigration, sovereignty, and mainstream party failures—but they offer no viable solutions beyond channeling widespread discontents. Their appeal reflects real grievances about technocratic governance and elite dismissal, not superior policy alternatives, as evidenced by their mixed track records in power (succeeding only when moderating their agenda). The traditional political firewall excluding them is eroding as voters reject being labeled 'far-right' and dismissed by elites who failed to address legitimate concerns. The critical implication is that simultaneous far-right gains in major EU countries could destabilize the European project, given these parties' nationalist agendas and opposition to common defense and Ukraine support.
-
221.
The Trump administration pursues strategic dominance rather than traditional territorial imperialism, prioritizing the Western Hemisphere while treating Europe as declining and irrelevant. Commercial diplomacy replaces values-based foreign policy, with weakened constitutional checks enabling an increasingly powerful presidency aligned with tech companies to project coercive economic and technological power globally. This shift generates anxiety in China over US encirclement of its neighborhood, prompts Europe to question its past complicity as beneficiary of US imperialism, and raises questions about whether middle powers can organize autonomously without US leadership or values-based frameworks.
-
222.
The IRC's Emergency Watchlist reports 240 million people in humanitarian need globally, with 120 million displaced and conflicts increasingly internationalized through intervention by neighboring and external powers. The crisis is compounded by a 50% cut in humanitarian aid precisely when the world faces greater fragmentation and less international cooperation, while 60% of the extreme poor live in fragile, conflict-affected states. Beyond humanitarian response, resolving crises requires political solutions through effective diplomacy, peacemaking, and protection of humanitarian principles as a fundamental shield. Policymakers must refocus aid on fragile states, invest in climate resilience for vulnerable nations, and build coalitions of willing partners that prioritize shared humanitarian goals despite geopolitical competition. The UK and other powers can leverage World Bank influence and financial expertise to align global resources toward the most critical needs rather than narrow strategic interests.
-
223.
Digital public infrastructure (identity, payments, data systems) is essential for modern governance, but developed democracies lag behind Global South countries due to institutional barriers rather than funding constraints. The UK's failed digital ID rollout exemplifies poor governance: countries like India (Aadhaar), Brazil (Pix), and Philippines achieved success through iterative rollouts, clear political leadership, and public trust-building, while open-source solutions provide better sovereignty and cost-effectiveness than proprietary systems. Key barriers include Treasury procurement models that discourage experimentation, media pressure discouraging failure, and lack of willingness to start small and scale gradually. Success requires governments to establish multi-stakeholder governance, prioritize incremental deployment with demonstrable benefits, and adopt international standards while maintaining data sovereignty.
-
224.
China under Xi Jinping pursues a multifaceted strategy to reshape the global order through building alternative institutions (Belt and Road, AIIB, SCO), demonstrating technological superiority in 66 of 74 advanced technologies, and creating economic leverage over Western nations through control of critical supply chains while reducing its own dependencies. Xi's worldview, shaped by concerns about internal stability and external encirclement, frames all policy domains through a security lens and emphasizes non-Western governance models over ideological alignment. China has invested $2.2 trillion in development lending to build influence in the Global South, though this initiative is declining as Beijing reorients resources homeward due to domestic economic challenges. Military modernization—planning nine aircraft carriers by 2035 with focus on Taiwan and the South China Sea—signals eventual willingness to project power globally as overseas interests expand. The breakdown of the U.S.-led liberal order presents significant opportunities for China to advance its vision among middle powers and developing nations, though Western resistance and regional competitors constrain its immediate ambitions.
-
225.
The panel concludes the MENA region is experiencing fundamental structural transformation rather than stabilization, driven by Iran's weakening regional position, a shift in threat perceptions following October 7th, and the emergence of pragmatic "multi-alignment" among regional actors replacing traditional power blocs. Key evidence includes Gulf state pragmatism prioritizing survival over ideology, Israel-Turkey competition over Syria's future, and regional powers hedging relationships across blurred licit-illicit economic supply chains. The critical implication is that without sustained regional diplomatic coordination, conflicts will persist in perpetually managed states rather than being resolved, requiring Middle Eastern actors to exercise greater strategic agency rather than deferring to US leadership.
-
226.
Iran is experiencing sustained and intensifying anti-government protests that began in late 2025, initially triggered by severe economic hardship but evolving into broader demands for systemic political change and regime accountability. Despite government crackdowns and internet blackouts, the movement has grown nationwide, reflecting a deep crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic as citizens increasingly distrust the political leadership. The protests carry significant regional and international dimensions, with implications for US-Israel policy and broader Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics. The scale and persistence of unrest suggest potential for meaningful political transformation, though the government's hardening security response indicates deepening polarization. The intersection of Iran's internal instability with regional power competition makes these protests a critical factor in Middle Eastern stability.
-
227.
The International Crisis Group warns that 2026 will be defined by Trump's transactional, hemispheric-focused foreign policy and competing spheres of influence that displace traditional conflict prevention institutions. Exemplified by military intervention in Venezuela to assert resource control, this approach prioritizes geopolitical competition and economic interests over sustainable peacemaking, while regional actors and rival powers fill voids left by eroding Western mediators. With 60+ active conflicts globally and international institutions delegitimized, the year ahead offers temporary truces rather than durable peace, creating elevated risks of miscalculation as spheres of influence collide.
-
228.Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro? (Chatham House)
The US military seizure of Venezuelan President Maduro signals a shift toward unilateral 'hemispheric imperialism,' with the Trump administration prioritizing its definition of national interests over international law or rules-based order. While the military operation succeeded, the intervention's economic rationale is fundamentally weak: Venezuelan heavy crude requires hundreds of billions in infrastructure investment amid global oversupply and declining demand from electric vehicle adoption. Key implications include Europe's urgent need to rebuild autonomous defense capabilities beyond US security guarantees, Latin America's deeper fragmentation into bilateral relationships with Washington, and the establishment of a sphere-of-influence precedent that threatens NATO cohesion—particularly regarding Greenland. The intervention is unlikely to achieve sustainable political or economic success domestically, though the US may declare victory and withdraw, leaving institutional problems unresolved and encouraging great-power competition elsewhere.
-
229.
Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox argues that the world now faces unprecedented competition between two rival superpowers—China and the US—whose quest for dominance threatens global peace and prosperity, even absent direct military conflict. China has achieved technological and economic parity across key sectors (EVs, semiconductors, batteries, 5G), while Trump's second presidency represents "the end of the Western alliance" through unilateral, unprincipled policies that reject international law and favor competitors over traditional allies. With the US weakening itself through strategic errors (tariffs driving India/Vietnam toward China, abandoning green tech investment), other countries must strengthen international institutions, defend rule of law, resolve conflicts based on principles, and develop strategic independence to protect their interests and preserve liberal democratic values as the foundation for global order.
-
230.
Chatham House's Africa Programme provides independent political analysis of African countries and their international relations, distinguishing itself by focusing on country-specific political dynamics rather than continental development concerns. The programme supports informed decision-making among policymakers and facilitates responsible business engagement in Africa by promoting transparency, accountability, and rule of law while exposing governance and business shortcomings in a non-confrontational manner. By providing privileged access to expertise unconstrained by consultancy business pressures and creating platforms for African leaders to engage internationally, the programme aims to enhance global stability and investment opportunities while supporting African states' increasing role in global politics.
-
231.
Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme provides interdisciplinary analysis of regional issues across South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific. The programme conducts original research and engages policymakers and decision-makers to inform evidence-based policy decisions, emphasizing the importance of understanding fundamental questions raised by Asia's geopolitical and economic rise. Through expert roundtables, webinars, conferences, and direct engagement with governments and multilateral institutions, the programme aims to challenge conventional thinking and deliver practical analysis that shapes positive policy outcomes.
-
232.
Chatham House's Environment and Society Centre conducts independent research on environmental challenges and their systemic impacts on international geopolitics and local communities. The centre focuses on securing the climate and energy transition, creating sustainable solutions for food and natural resources, and accelerating the sustainability transition through policy-informed innovation. Through its Sustainability Accelerator initiative, it combines evidence-based policymaking with entrepreneurial approaches to generate solutions for environmental resilience and resource management.
-
233.
Chatham House's Europe Programme focuses on three strategic priorities for 2024-2027: the institutional future of the EU, safeguarding European security, and Europe's role in global affairs, driven by accelerating geopolitical change. The programme combines institutional EU and NATO expertise with a pan-European network of specialists to develop pragmatic, actionable policy recommendations addressing the 'how to' question for policymakers. A critical analytical lens throughout this work is how rising political fragmentation and divergent election outcomes across Europe are reshaping strategic responses to security challenges and EU cohesion.
-
234.
Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme, led by Creon Butler, conducts independent policy research and convening activities on cutting-edge global economic issues affecting policymakers and practitioners worldwide. The programme focuses on critical areas including international economic cooperation, global governance mechanisms like the G7 and G20, climate economics, international trade and investment, developing country debt, innovative finance for global health, corporate responsibility, and the evolution of the international monetary system. Through original research, roundtable discussions, and private briefings with senior policymakers and business leaders, the programme aims to translate independent economic analysis into practical and timely policy insights and recommendations.
-
235.
The post-1945 international order faces unprecedented strain as great powers compete over future governance rules, exemplified by wars in Ukraine and Gaza and accusations of Western double standards. The erosion of established norms and the US's increasingly transactional approach to international relations underscore the need for institutional reform. Chatham House's Global Governance and Security Centre advocates for evolving global governance frameworks that retain valuable elements of the old order while creating new rules that include voices from smaller powers and the Global South.
-
236.
Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme specializes in research and analysis on overlooked regional issues, developing new frameworks for understanding on-the-ground realities and their policy implications. The program conducts field research, publishes bilingual analysis in English and Arabic, and convenes discussions with decision-makers across government, academia, civil society, and the private sector. Key research focus areas include geopolitical dynamics, transnational conflict, governance structures, and evolving state-society relations that inform policy across the MENA region and beyond.
-
237.
The Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme is a premier research center analyzing Russia's geopolitical trajectory and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, examining how this conflict has reshaped regional security dynamics. The programme conducts substantive research on Russia's wars, Ukraine's internal political developments and reconstruction needs, and the geopolitical realignment of Soviet successor states that have increasingly diverged since 1990. Through expert convenings, media engagement, and policy consultation, the programme provides analysis grounded in state sovereignty principles to inform international responses to this region's complex security and stability challenges.
-
238.
The UK faces a shifting international environment marked by changing relationships with traditional allies and rising influence of China and the Global South, creating a more multipolar and unpredictable world. Chatham House's UK in the World programme argues that the new government should leverage Britain's strengths as a global broker and influential mid-sized power to navigate these challenges. However, the UK's ability to do so depends on simultaneously addressing domestic problems—including economic stagnation, regional inequality, and public service deficiencies—that constrain its global effectiveness. The programme conducts independent research and expert consultations on priority areas including economic security, international development, and the role of science and technology in projecting British power. Key recommendations focus on developing strategic approaches to relationships with the US, Europe, the Global South, and the Indo-Pacific region.
-
239.
Chatham House's US and North America Programme conducts research and convening activities to analyze America's evolving global role and its implications for international affairs. The program focuses on critical policy areas including US-China relations, global economic and trade policy renegotiation, international security realignment, and the durability of US foreign policy beyond 2028. By equipping policymakers and stakeholders across governments, civil society, and the private sector with analytical tools and expert insights, the program aims to inform strategic decisions for the UK, Europe, and other middle powers navigating this period of global recalibration.
-
240.
The article argues Trump's robust support for ongoing Iranian protests contrasts sharply with Obama's strategic silence during 2009's Green Revolution, enabling unprecedented popular mobilization. Iran's regime faces historic vulnerability due to economic collapse, Chinese patron's refusal to provide military aid, and the population's emboldened defiance following military defeats. The author highlights China's "halal internet" censorship system (NIN) as a key oppression tool and proposes targeted cyberattacks as both protest support and a means to reduce Chinese Middle East influence. Trump's rhetoric should be followed by actionable measures including cyber operations against NIN and communications support for protesters. The piece presents current Iranian protests as an opportunity to weaken both the Islamic Republic and Chinese regional power.
-
241.
The Heritage Foundation argues that while Trump has legal authority to deploy federal forces to protect ICE agents from activist obstruction, it should shift from high-visibility street enforcement in Democratic-led cities to less conspicuous tactics. Instead of expensive, high-risk street operations that generate media backlash, ICE should expand workplace enforcement and leverage advanced technology—facial recognition, social media monitoring, AI skip-tracing—for targeted arrests at unpredictable times and locations. This pragmatic approach aims to achieve mass deportation goals while maintaining public support by normalizing law enforcement rather than producing controversial confrontations that inevitably appear unfavorable to moderate voters.
-
242.
The Trump administration is downsizing the Department of Education, transferring education authority to states and local communities. Federal regulations currently impose approximately 48.6 million hours of annual paperwork on schools, with state officials alone spending $235+ million annually on Title I compliance, while student achievement has remained persistently low. The article recommends states convert Title I and IDEA funding into flexible block grants and education savings accounts, implement civil rights reforms aligned with recent court decisions, and increase transparency and parental involvement in education governance.
-
243.
The Heritage Foundation warns that America's declining marriage and birth rates—with population projected to shrink after 2030 without immigration—represent an existential threat to national survival. They propose government interventions including eliminating marriage penalties in welfare programs, creating tax credits for married families, and reducing barriers to homeownership to incentivize family formation. The article contends that social science evidence demonstrates traditional married families outperform alternatives across wealth, education, health, and happiness measures, and frames inaction on this demographic crisis as a choice between managed and accelerated decline.
-
244.
This Heritage Foundation report argues that the decline of marriage and family formation represents an existential threat to America's future, proposing that strengthening two-parent married families is essential for individual flourishing, economic prosperity, and national survival. The evidence includes statistical trends showing marriage rates falling from 86% to 69% since 1962, total fertility dropping to 1.59 children per woman (below the 2.1 replacement rate), and research demonstrating that children raised by married biological parents consistently achieve better outcomes across education, health, employment, and social metrics. The report attributes family decline to welfare policies that penalize marriage, cultural shifts from the sexual revolution, credential inflation delaying family formation, and technology undermining relationships, while citing examples like Hungary's doubled marriage rates through targeted incentives and Israel's above-replacement fertility sustained through religious and nationalist cultural values. Policy recommendations focus on three major reforms: the Family and Marriage (FAM) tax credit ($4,418 refundable), Home Childcare Equalization credit ($2,000), and Newlywed Early Starters Trust (NEST) accounts ($2,500 seed deposits), complemented by welfare reform to eliminate marriage penalties, housing affordability reforms, and protections for parental rights and religious freedom. The implications suggest that reversing demographic decline requires a comprehensive whole-of-government approach prioritizing marriage as central to tax, welfare, education, and housing policy, coupled with cultural renewal emphasizing family formation as vital to national wellbeing.
-
245.
South Korea has emerged as a critical defense equipment supplier to address Europe's expanding security needs, marking a significant shift in transatlantic and Indo-Pacific defense partnerships. The report by Dr. Chung Min Lee analyzes the strategic drivers behind Seoul's rising prominence in European defense procurement, including production capacity, cost competitiveness, and technological capabilities. While South Korea's role offers opportunities for diversifying European defense supply chains and deepening non-NATO partnerships, it also presents challenges including technology transfer concerns, production sustainability, and potential supply chain dependencies. The trend reflects broader geopolitical reorientation toward Asia-Europe defense cooperation frameworks. Future Europe-South Korea defense collaboration could reshape alliance structures and influence NATO's supplier diversification strategies.
-
246.
An IISS-led diplomatic simulation exercise involving Southeast Asian officials (November 2025) tested how ASEAN could respond to a hypothetical nuclear-armed submarine crisis in Indonesian waters that escalated China-AUKUS tensions. The exercise revealed significant gaps in Southeast Asian states' nuclear-security crisis literacy and their limited diplomatic capacity to manage such scenarios or bridge major-power divides. The simulation confirmed the utility of ADMM mechanisms and the SEANWFZ Treaty as frameworks, but exposed their insufficiency for addressing complex nuclear-related crises. Key findings emphasize the need to strengthen domestic inter-agency collaboration on nuclear security within Southeast Asian governments and highlight fundamental limitations of regional institutions when facing strategic competition between China and Western powers.
-
247.
Southeast Asian governments lack systematic planning for a potential US-China Taiwan conflict, with current policy discussions narrowly focused on civilian evacuation operations. The paper proposes a three-level 'building blocks' approach: strengthening individual states' domestic crisis capacity and planning, leveraging bilateral relations with the US, China, and Taiwan for preliminary crisis dialogue, and enhancing or restructuring ASEAN mechanisms for coordinated regional response. This framework addresses critical gaps in Southeast Asia's crisis-response architecture and offers institutional pathways to improve regional coordination and policy effectiveness during major security crises.
-
248.
Southeast Asian maritime states (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam) are developing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies to prepare for potential great power conflicts and maintain neutrality of critical waterways, but current efforts remain rudimentary and poorly coordinated across strategic and operational levels. A significant disconnect exists between policy-level debates about contingencies like US-China conflict or South China Sea tensions and actual military modernization plans, doctrinal development, and asset acquisition. No single Southeast Asian state currently possesses the full range of capabilities, doctrine, and operational posture required to execute a comprehensive A2/AD strategy, constrained by diverse security priorities, historical legacies, and military dominance of policymaking. How these states advance their A2/AD capabilities will determine their ability to respond to future contingencies and shape regional security partnerships and interoperability.
-
249.
The Straits of Malacca and Singapore experience persistent maritime crime despite substantial investment in security infrastructure, driven by spatial clustering near chokepoints and offender adaptation to predictable patrol patterns. Spatial analysis of incidents from 2007-2025 reveals that crime clustering concentrates within approximately 50 nautical miles of security infrastructure, with deterrent effects diminishing rapidly with distance. The paper argues that maritime crime reflects opportunity and geography rather than deterrence failure, requiring a shift from enforcement-focused approaches to risk management strategies that reduce blind spots, improve operational flexibility, and strengthen regional coordination.
-
250.Lawless Seas Contested Shores Piracy Smuggling And The Scramble For Port Access In The Horn Of Africa (IISS)
The Horn of Africa's maritime security is deteriorating due to resurgent Somali piracy since late 2023, active arms smuggling networks supplying Yemen and regional actors, and intensifying international competition for port and military base access among the US, China, Gulf states, Turkey, and Russia. The underlying drivers are Somalia's persistent governance failures, the strategic value of regional maritime infrastructure, and broader geopolitical rivalries that have converged to create opportunities for piracy's re-emergence. While external actors possess significant interests in the region's ports, the paper argues that regional players retain substantial leverage to shape outcomes according to their own political interests. Policymakers must adopt integrated land-and-sea security strategies to address piracy's root causes while managing competing external pressures. Failure to coordinate these efforts risks further destabilization of the fragile Horn of Africa region.
-
251.Cloud Adoption For National Security And Defence Purposes Four Case Studies From The Asia Pacific (IISS)
Cloud computing is now central to national security and defense strategies in the Asia-Pacific, as states must securely manage vast data volumes amid US-China strategic competition. Case studies of Japan, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand reveal that states can achieve sovereign control while using non-national cloud providers through hybrid arrangements and tailored governance structures that combine commercial innovation with security assurance. The key implication is that state sovereignty in the cloud era is determined not by technological isolation but by effective governance, security protocols, and the ability to leverage digital infrastructure for strategic advantage in contested information environments.
-
252.
The EU has dramatically expanded its defence role through growing budgets and new financial instruments, most notably the EUR150bn Security Action for Europe (SAFE) adopted in May 2025, which will significantly increase EU influence over European defence markets. All EU defence instruments impose strict participation conditions restricting non-EU access, making these markets less accessible to third countries, though more closely aligned partners may gain preferential access. However, rapid growth in NATO member states' own defence spending—55% higher in 2025 than 2022—limits EU leverage, as governments increasingly direct funds through national rather than EU frameworks. Third countries will retain access only to EU defence sectors beyond Commission control, with participation in the expanding EU-regulated segment depending on transactional assessments of strategic value and contributions to EU defence-industrial objectives.
-
253.Exploring Opportunities For European Rearmament Through Ukraines Experience And Indo Pacific Partnerships (IISS)
This IISS report examines how Ukraine's sustained defense production during its war with Russia offers critical lessons for European rearmament and industrial resilience. Ukraine has successfully restructured its defense sector and diversified global supply chains, reducing reliance on Russian and Chinese components while forming strategic partnerships with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. The analysis demonstrates how modern states can scale defense-industrial capacity during prolonged high-intensity warfare through sectoral restructuring, innovation, and flexible sourcing. The findings imply that Europe must adopt similar resilience strategies, strengthen Indo-Pacific partnerships, and redesign supply chains to ensure long-term defense-industrial self-sufficiency in an increasingly contested security environment.
-
254.
The EU's SAFE instrument provides €150 billion in loans (2025-30) to strengthen European defence capabilities through common procurement, but its rules limiting non-EU components to 35% and requiring design authority transfer to the EU may significantly constrain participation by allied countries. IISS research finds these restrictions—particularly the design-authority requirement—could undermine long-standing partnerships, reduce interoperability, and slow innovation adoption, while the limited negotiation timeline and high participation fees have already created obstacles for key allies including the UK, Canada, South Korea, and Turkey. The instrument demonstrates the EU's struggle to balance strategic autonomy with defence-industrial cooperation, with unintended consequences that could actually limit EU access to critical allied capabilities and weaken rather than strengthen European defence preparedness.
-
255.
The PLAAF has rapidly evolved into a potent power projection force capable of operating beyond the First Island Chain, integrating advanced fighters, bombers, and comprehensive air defense systems across five theater commands. Unlike traditional air forces, the PLAAF uniquely consolidates long-range surface-to-air missiles, mobile radar, and airborne forces into a unified operational structure. The China Airpower Tracker reveals an increasingly mobile and operationally flexible force with road-mobile SAM systems and distributed bases, indicating China's strategic intent to challenge regional air superiority with significant implications for Indo-Pacific security.
-
256.
The Mitchell Institute argues that the U.S. Air Force must maintain capacity to deny enemy operational sanctuaries through long-range penetrating airpower capable of holding targets at risk anytime and anywhere. Decades of force cuts and deferred modernization have degraded the Air Force's combat capacity to the point where it cannot simultaneously deter nuclear attacks, defend the homeland, and defeat adversary aggression at acceptable risk levels. The paper calls for new, stealthy long-range bombers and fighters at scale, framing this as a strategic national choice essential for achieving peace through strength and ensuring victory if deterrence fails.
-
257.
The Mitchell Institute argues that space superiority is a critical national security imperative for the U.S., as China and Russia develop advanced counterspace weapons that threaten American military operations and civil/commercial services. The paper contends that the Department of Defense must comprehensively review space roles and missions, invest in cross-domain capabilities, and fundamentally shift culture to treat space as a true warfighting domain. The authors stress that urgent reforms—including educating warfighters about space threats, implementing multidomain training, and conducting contested space exercises—are essential before actual conflict; without these changes, U.S. space superiority will remain aspirational and the nation risks strategic defeat.
-
258.
The U.S. Air Force's current airlift system lacks the capacity and aircraft mix necessary to sustain operations against a peer competitor, particularly in the contested Indo-Pacific theater, placing the entire military at operational risk. Decades of underfunding and patchwork investments have created critical shortfalls that compromise America's global operational capabilities. The Department of Defense must immediately commit to a long-term, sustained investment plan to restore and expand the nation's mobility infrastructure. Addressing this deficit will require years of dedicated funding to overcome accumulated gaps and meet future operational requirements in contested environments.
-
259.A Broader Look at Dynamic Space Operations: Creating Multi-Dimensional Dilemmas for Adversaries (Mitchell)
The Mitchell Institute argues that the U.S. must transition from legacy static space systems to Dynamic Space Operations (DSO)—rapidly reconfigurable systems capable of frequently changing orbital parameters to achieve mission effects. Traditional space systems were designed for a peaceful domain, but space has become a warfighting arena with escalating threats; DSO addresses this by enabling flexibility, resilience, and application of classical warfare principles like maneuver and surprise. Implementation of DSO creates multi-dimensional dilemmas for adversaries while strengthening U.S. military effectiveness across all joint operations. Failure to adopt DSO risks ceding space superiority, a foundational advantage for U.S. defense strategy, making rapid acceleration of these capabilities urgent.
-
260.Winning the Next War: Overcoming the U.S. Air Force’s Capacity, Capability, and Readiness Crisis (Mitchell)
The Mitchell Institute warns that the U.S. Air Force faces critical shortfalls in capacity, capability, and readiness—currently the oldest, smallest, and least ready in its history—creating an existential national security crisis. These deficiencies pose significant risks as the nation confronts an increasingly severe global threat environment over the next decade. The analysis recommends increasing the Air Force budget while realllocating internal funds from research and development into procurement and operations to restore readiness for peer conflict. Without urgent action, the nation risks catastrophic human and material losses in future major wars. Robust airpower is deemed essential both for deterring aggression during peacetime and for military victory in major conflicts.