Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
The Safe Regulation And Its Implications For Non EU Defence Suppliers
English Summary
IISS argues that the EU’s SAFE instrument, while framed as opening some space for third-country participation, will in practice constrain non-EU defence suppliers more than many expect. The paper points to strict eligibility rules—especially the 35% non-EU component cap, EU-centered design-authority requirements, and tight 2030 delivery timelines—as major barriers, with full design-authority transfer seen as particularly unrealistic for many partners. It also cites uneven and politically difficult “enhanced terms” negotiations (e.g., late Canada agreement, UK obstacles, and no invitations for South Korea and Turkiye) as evidence that access is limited in practice. Strategically, these constraints could reduce EU access to allied technologies, weaken interoperability and joint development partnerships, and slow capability innovation in EU-funded procurement.
中文摘要
IISS 認為，歐盟的 SAFE 工具雖被表述為為第三國參與開啟一定空間，但在實務上對非歐盟防務供應商的限制將比多數人預期更大。該文指出，嚴格的資格規則，尤其是非歐盟零組件 35% 上限、以歐盟為中心的設計主導權要求，以及緊迫的 2030 年交付時程，構成主要障礙；而對許多合作夥伴而言，完整移轉設計主導權尤其不切實際。文中亦援引「強化條款」談判進展不均且在政治上困難（例如加拿大協議延後、英國面臨障礙，以及韓國與土耳其未獲邀）作為實務上准入受限的證據。從戰略層面看，這些限制可能降低歐盟取得盟友技術的能力，削弱互操作性與聯合研發夥伴關係，並拖慢歐盟資助採購中的能力創新。
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