The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
The Price of Strategic Incoherence in Iran
English Summary
The article argues that military conflict is a profoundly costly undertaking, requiring more than mere political rhetoric or public relations campaigns to justify. For the immense moral and material costs of war to be acceptable, the action must be underpinned by a clear, achievable strategy. Strategy, in this context, is defined as a concrete plan by which military power can reliably produce a desired political outcome. The core finding is that any intervention lacking strategic coherence risks escalating costs and failing to achieve its stated goals. Policymakers must therefore ensure that military force is always tied to a disciplined, measurable plan to avoid strategic failure.
中文摘要
本文論述，軍事衝突是一項極為代價高昂的行動，其合理性不能僅依賴於政治修辭或公關宣傳。若要接受戰爭所帶來的巨大道德與物質成本，該行動必須建立在清晰且可實現的戰略基礎之上。在此語境下，「戰略」被定義為一套具體計畫，用以確保軍事力量能夠可靠地達成預期的政治成果。核心發現指出，任何缺乏戰略連貫性的干預行動，都有可能導致成本升級並無法達成其既定目標。因此，政策制定者必須確保軍事武力始終與一套紀律嚴明、可量化的計畫掛鉤，以避免戰略上的失敗。
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