The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Leadership Transition in Iran
English Summary
The report argues that the United States must urgently prepare for an imminent leadership transition in Iran—ranging from managed clerical continuity to an IRGC-led military takeover or total regime collapse—following recent internal uprisings and regional conflict. It highlights that while a democratic shift is unlikely in the near term, the transition will likely trigger opportunistic escalation by proxy groups and increased internal repression. Consequently, U.S. strategy should focus on maintaining a strong regional deterrent, supporting Iranian civil society's connectivity, and readying diplomatic frameworks for nuclear transparency and hostage release.
中文摘要
報告指出，鑒於近期發生的內部起義與地區衝突，美國必須為伊朗即將到來的領導層更迭預作緊迫準備，其情境涵蓋受控的教士體制延續、由伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）主導的軍事接管，或是政權的全面崩潰。報告強調，儘管短期內不太可能出現民主轉型，但權力過渡期間可能會引發代理人組織的投機性局勢升級，並加劇內部鎮壓。因此，美國的戰略應著重於維持強大的地區威懾力、支持伊朗公民社會的互聯互通，並為核透明度與人質釋放建立外交框架。
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