The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
America Has No Good Options in Iran
English Summary
The article argues that U.S. involvement in the conflict with Iran, despite initial differences from past wars, is setting the stage for a strategic quagmire. The core concern is that Washington is engaging a regional power without establishing clear objectives, a defined theory of victory, or a viable exit strategy. This lack of strategic clarity suggests that the U.S. risks becoming entangled in a protracted and difficult conflict. Policymakers must recognize this pattern to avoid repeating the mistakes of previous, ill-defined foreign interventions.
中文摘要
本文論點指出，美國參與與伊朗的衝突，儘管與過去的戰爭存在初期差異，卻正在為一個戰略泥潭鋪路。核心擔憂在於，華盛頓正在與一個區域大國交戰，卻沒有確立明確的目標、定義的戰勝理論，或可行的退出策略。這種戰略上的模糊性暗示，美國有陷入一場曠日持久且艱鉅的衝突的風險。政策制定者必須認識到這一模式，以避免重蹈過去諸次目標不明確的外交干預的覆轍。
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