The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Alan Cullison
English Summary
Veteran journalist Alan Cullison argues that effective foreign policy reporting and analysis must be grounded in human empathy and the study of individual personalities rather than abstract political theory. Drawing on three decades of experience in Russia and Afghanistan, Cullison demonstrates how focusing on the 'fragments' of conflict—such as personal tragedies or investigative leads like liberated al-Qaeda hard drives—provides deeper insights into geopolitical shifts than conventional high-level reporting. For policymakers and analysts, these reflections highlight that robust intelligence depends on maintaining a diverse ecosystem of 'honest interpreters' who possess the linguistic and cultural immersion necessary to navigate chaotic international environments.
中文摘要
資深記者 Alan Cullison 主張，有效的外交政策報導與分析必須植根於人類同理心及對個人特質的研究，而非抽象的政治理論。憑藉在俄羅斯與阿富汗三十年的經驗，Cullison 展現了關注衝突中的「碎片」——例如個人悲劇或被收繳的基地組織硬碟等調查線索——如何比傳統的高層報導更能提供對地緣政治轉變的深刻洞察。對於決策者與分析家而言，這些反思強調了強大的情報工作取決於維持一個由「誠實的解讀者」組成的多元生態系統，這些人具備在混亂國際環境中穿梭所需的語言與文化沉浸能力。
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