The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Can America and Iran Reach a Cease-Fire?
English Summary
Amid escalating costs, discussions of a potential cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran have emerged. The Trump administration has temporarily paused aggressive actions, such as threats against power plants, to allow for negotiation. The U.S. has submitted a 15-point plan via Pakistani intermediaries, which the article characterizes as essentially demanding unconditional surrender from Iran. This indicates that any diplomatic path toward a ceasefire is currently predicated on Iran accepting highly restrictive terms, suggesting a difficult and asymmetrical negotiation environment.
中文摘要
鑑於成本不斷攀升，美國與伊朗之間潛在停火的討論已浮現。川普政府已暫停了諸如威脅發電廠等激進行動，以利進行談判。美國透過巴基斯坦中間人提交了一份包含 15 點的計畫，本文分析指出，這實質上是要求伊朗無條件投降。這表明，任何通往停火的外交途徑目前都建立在伊朗接受高度限制性條件的基礎上，暗示這是一個艱難且非對稱的談判環境。
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