The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East
English Summary
The article argues that the concept of 'authoritarian stability' in the Middle East is a myth, suggesting that regional regimes are inherently volatile and subject to external manipulation. The analysis uses Donald Trump's contradictory statements regarding Iran and his comparison of regime changes (e.g., Venezuela) as evidence that major powers view the region through a lens of transactional autocracy replacement. This suggests that external interventions are less about promoting stability and more about managing the transition from one powerful regime to another. Policymakers must therefore anticipate instability and the continued use of proxy conflicts, rather than assuming predictable, stable governance structures.
中文摘要
本文論述了「中東的威權穩定」概念是一個神話，指出該地區的政權本質上具有高度不穩定性，且容易受到外部操縱。分析援引了唐納德·川普關於伊朗的矛盾言論，以及他對政權更迭（例如委內瑞拉）的比較，作為證據，證明主要大國看待該地區的視角，是一種「交易性威權政權更替」的透鏡。這暗示外部干預的目的，並非是促進穩定，而是管理從一個強大政權過渡到另一個強大政權的過程。因此，政策制定者必須預期不穩定性以及代理人衝突的持續存在，而非假設存在可預測、穩定的治理結構。
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