The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Iran and Gaza conflicts teach Gulf states a hard-power lesson
English Summary
GCC states are increasingly embracing 'hard power' and diversifying security partnerships as trust in US security guarantees collapses following military escalations with Iran and the perceived flaws of the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan. While Gulf nations initially supported US initiatives to maintain diplomatic favor, the plan’s exclusion of Palestinian political agency and its failure to prevent Iranian retaliatory strikes against GCC territory have exposed critical strategic vulnerabilities. These developments have demonstrated the high cost of dependency on a US policy that fails to constrain Israeli actions or ensure regional safety. Consequently, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are transitioning toward more autonomous defense strategies and broader international coalitions to navigate worsening regional volatility.
中文摘要
海合會國家正日益擁抱「硬實力」並推動安全夥伴關係多元化，原因在於隨著與伊朗軍事衝突升級以及川普政府加薩和平計畫的缺陷顯露，對美國安全保證的信任已告崩解。儘管海灣國家最初為換取外交青睞而支持美國的倡議，但該計畫對巴勒斯坦政治主體性的排除，以及未能阻止伊朗針對海合會領土的報復性打擊，均暴露了關鍵的戰略脆弱性。這些發展證明，依賴一項既無法制約以色列行動也無法確保地區安全的美國政策，需付出高昂代價。因此，沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國和卡達正轉向更具自主性的國防策略與更廣泛的國際聯盟，以應對日益惡化的地區動盪。
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