Russia is deepening its strategic alignment with Iran, formalizing a partnership aimed at resisting third-party interference. This growing axis is evidenced by the recent Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty and Russia's largely non-interventionist stance during the US/Israeli attacks on Iran. This calculated inaction suggests Moscow views the conflict as an opportunity to challenge Western norms and solidify a powerful anti-Western bloc. Policymakers should anticipate increased regional instability and a more coordinated challenge to global security structures emanating from the Middle East.
2026-W12
This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.
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The article analyzes two competing geopolitical visions regarding the changing global order. One perspective, exemplified by Canada's Mark Carney, suggests middle powers should pivot away from U.S. reliance and view China as a potential counterweight to American power. Conversely, Japan's Sanae Takaichi argues that China, rather than the United States, represents the most significant disruptive threat globally. Policymakers must navigate this fundamental disagreement over the source of instability, determining whether the primary strategic focus should be mitigating Chinese influence or managing the shifting relationship between the U.S. and its allies.
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The publication argues that the era of mandatory or voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and ESG reporting is effectively over. This shift is evidenced by major corporations, including Starbucks and Mastercard, dropping or reversing policies that linked executive compensation to ESG performance metrics. This retreat is attributed to anticipated political changes and a federal crackdown on ESG initiatives. For policy makers, this signals a significant de-emphasis on non-financial, social, and environmental accountability in corporate governance, suggesting a return to a singular focus on traditional financial performance.
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The article argues that Europe cannot achieve true military power due to its historical reliance on the United States for security, a structure that has allowed it to prioritize economic integration. This traditional division of labor is now destabilized by unpredictable external pressures, exemplified by the actions of figures like Donald Trump, which undermine NATO cohesion and European sovereignty. Consequently, Europe faces a critical strategic challenge: it must redefine its security posture and pursue greater strategic autonomy without attempting to achieve full military parity with global powers. Policy efforts must therefore focus on strengthening internal resilience and diplomatic coordination rather than solely on military buildup.
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The article argues that the sustained U.S. policy of confrontation, or 'War on Iran,' has been counterproductive and has backfired strategically. It suggests that focusing on specific political figures or inflammatory statements has been a misallocation of strategic effort, failing to achieve desired security outcomes. The analysis implies that continued escalation is detrimental to U.S. interests and regional stability. Policymakers are therefore advised to fundamentally reassess their strategy, moving away from direct conflict toward more nuanced diplomatic or economic engagement.
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As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the primary focus is shifting from active combat to the profound post-war challenges of societal recovery. The article argues that when the war concludes, both Ukraine and Russia will face the massive undertaking of reintegrating thousands of veterans. This process requires significant state resources to provide long-term physical, mental, and financial support to service members. Consequently, both Kyiv and Moscow must prioritize comprehensive policy planning and allocate substantial financial capital to manage these lasting societal wounds, ensuring stability and preventing internal crises.
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The article argues that regime change in Iran is achievable through a high-stakes military intervention, praising the operational synergy between the US and Israeli air forces. The key reasoning presented is that the combined forces are highly competent and capable of striking various targets with minimal unintended civilian casualties. This sustained military pressure is predicted to systematically strip Iran of its remaining assets and capabilities. Consequently, the policy implication suggests that coordinated, joint military action is viewed as the most effective strategy for destabilizing the current Iranian regime.
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The article argues that Iran's pattern of limited, calibrated hostilities in the region is breaking down following the US-Israel conflict. Previously, Iran restricted its attacks to proxies or US/Israeli installations; however, it has dramatically expanded the battlefield by directly targeting vital infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states. This escalation suggests a rapid deterioration of regional stability and signals a move away from controlled deterrence. Policymakers must anticipate a significantly higher risk of a full-scale regional conflagration, necessitating immediate reassessment of deterrence strategies and security cooperation.
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The article argues that Iran's long-held system of deterrence is failing, suggesting that the country has lost its strategic balance despite external provocations. Using the metaphor of maintaining momentum, the analysis posits that Iran has been losing its stability over the past three years, undermining its regional power projection. This failure implies that the calculus of deterring Iran is shifting, necessitating a reassessment of policy strategies regarding its influence and military capabilities in the Middle East.
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This article analyzes the precarious relationship between the United States and Mexico, focusing on the potential for confrontation. The author leverages two decades of firsthand experience, including serving as Mexico's ambassador, to detail the history of complex negotiations. These negotiations have spanned multiple U.S. administrations and centered on building a shared, holistic vision for common security, particularly regarding counternarcotics cooperation. The piece implies that avoiding conflict requires sustained, high-level diplomatic commitment and cooperation on deeply intertwined security challenges.
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Historian Stephen Kotkin argues that authoritarian regimes, while appearing formidable, possess inherent structural vulnerabilities that can be exploited. His analysis, drawing on historical precedents and observations of regimes like Iran, suggests that the mechanisms used by strongmen to maintain power also create points of instability. Consequently, the prospect of rapid regime change through military intervention is highly complex and unlikely to proceed smoothly. Policymakers must therefore understand the deep structural weaknesses of these regimes rather than relying on assumptions of quick collapse.
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Contrary to U.S. and Israeli predictions of collapse, Iran views the conflict as a strategic opportunity to consolidate its regime's power and restore regional deterrence. The regime is leveraging the war to bolster domestic legitimacy, transforming internal dissent into a 'rally-around-the-flag' martyrdom culture, mirroring historical precedents like the Iran-Iraq War. Strategically, Iran has shifted toward raw offense, evidenced by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening multiple choke points. Policymakers must recognize that Tehran perceives the conflict as having few rules, suggesting that continued military action risks rapid, unpredictable escalation and a severe global economic crisis.
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The U.S. and China are currently navigating a period of strategic calm following years of elevated tensions. This détente is evidenced by a recent truce agreement between President Trump and Xi Jinping, which temporarily paused the trade war and lifted restrictions on critical resources like rare-earth elements. While this pause represents a significant de-escalation, the article cautions that the stability is fragile. Therefore, the outcome of future high-level meetings will be crucial for determining if this strategic calm can be maintained or if tensions will resurface.
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The article introduces a stark dichotomy within the Middle East, contrasting two distinct national models. The first country is characterized by high economic productivity ($80,000 GDP per capita), advanced technology, and support for liberal democracy. Conversely, the second country exhibits signs of stagnation, marked by high unemployment and low-skill, low-paying jobs, with a GDP per capita less than half that of its counterpart. This significant divergence suggests that regional stability and future development trajectories are highly dependent on economic modernization and institutional strength, making the distinction critical for strategic policy planning.
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15.More Students Use AI for Homework, and More Believe It Harms Critical Thinking: Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel (RAND)
The RAND American Youth Panel reveals a notable increase in students using AI for homework, rising from 48% in May 2025 to 62% in December 2025. This surge is accompanied by growing concern, with 67% of students believing AI harms critical thinking skills by late 2025. Although students widely use chatbots for tasks like brainstorming and explanations, they perceive significant ambiguity in school policies regarding AI, leading to increased worry about being accused of cheating, especially among older students. The report emphasizes the need for schools to engage students in discussions about AI's impact and establish clear, consistent guidelines for its appropriate use.
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16.Metro Monitor 2026: The relationship between immigration and regional economic performance over the past decade (Brookings)
The Brookings Metro Monitor 2026 report demonstrates that U.S. metropolitan areas with growing immigrant populations achieved superior economic performance, including higher GMP growth and productivity, between 2014 and 2024. The study finds no evidence that immigration harms native-born workers; instead, those in high-immigration regions saw higher employment rates and median earnings than their counterparts in low-immigration areas. These findings challenge the economic rationale behind mass deportations, suggesting such policies risk shrinking the national workforce by 2.4 million and reducing GDP by 7% by 2028. To sustain regional vitality, the report argues that federal and local leaders must prioritize policies that attract and integrate foreign-born talent rather than restricting it.
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This analysis evaluates the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, contending that significant military successes in degrading nuclear and missile capabilities have not yet triggered the regime's collapse. Key indicators, such as the stable succession of Mojtaba Khamenei and the lack of military defections, suggest that the theocracy is consolidating into a 'rump state' capable of sustained regional disruption against Gulf energy infrastructure. The authors warn that an exit strategy focused solely on conventional degradation may leave a bloodied regime with even greater incentives to pursue nuclear weapons as an ultimate deterrent, potentially turning tactical victories into a long-term strategic liability.
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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to Washington seeks to reinforce the U.S.-Japan alliance through $550 billion in strategic investment pledges and record-breaking defense spending. However, the partnership is being strained by new U.S. tariff offensives and the redirection of American military assets from the Indo-Pacific to address escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Tokyo faces a difficult balancing act as it navigates U.S. demands for maritime assistance in the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to maintain credible deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Ultimately, the visit highlights a growing tension where Washington-driven economic and security shocks are complicating Japan's pursuit of strategic autonomy and regional stability.
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The U.S. Postal Service is facing an imminent liquidity crisis as its statutory self-financing model fails to sustain the Universal Service Obligation (USO) amidst a 56% decline in First-Class Mail volume since 2007. This fiscal strain is driven by a structural mismatch where the value of the postal monopoly no longer covers the fixed costs of nationwide delivery and mandated retiree obligations. To avoid cash exhaustion within the next year, the article argues that Congress must intervene through pension restructuring, explicit appropriations for the USO, or increased borrowing authority. Failure to act will likely result in service degradation that disproportionately affects rural populations and small businesses dependent on postal infrastructure.
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The article argues that repeated exposure to political violence and aggressive federal interventions in Minneapolis is fostering a 'TraumatizNation,' where a generation of youth is being shaped by chronic trauma and partisan conflict. Drawing on a decade of local crises—from high-profile police shootings and the pandemic to recent ICE raids—the author highlights how both direct and indirect trauma undermine children's mental health and long-term development. To mitigate these effects, the piece advocates for non-partisan policies that prioritize child well-being, increased funding for school-based mental health resources, and greater accountability for the collateral damage of state actions.
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USMCA has significantly deepened North American economic integration, with compliance rates for Mexican and Canadian exports rising to nearly 80% following 2025 tariff increases on non-agreement goods. Mexico has solidified its role as the top U.S. trading partner, transitioning toward high-value advanced technology sectors like AI servers and medical devices while de-risking from China. However, rising labor costs and policy uncertainty have constrained new investment and employment in traditional manufacturing. The report suggests the 2026 USMCA review must prioritize realistic regional content requirements and infrastructure improvements to sustain the current nearshoring momentum.
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The USMCA serves as a vital strategic anchor for North American economic integration and regional security as it approaches its first mandated joint review in 2026. Mexico highlights its role as the primary U.S. trading partner and its implementation of domestic reforms, such as "Plan México" and labor improvements, to demonstrate a commitment to increasing regional value-added and purchasing power. The upcoming review provides a critical opportunity to strengthen supply chain resilience and shared prosperity by aligning the agreement with evolving industrial policies and geopolitical realities. Policy success will depend on maintaining a diplomatic balance that addresses security and migration while respecting national sovereignty across the three member nations.
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Brookings has launched an interactive trade tracker to monitor significant shifts in U.S. trade flows and costs following a sharp increase in tariffs beginning in January 2025. The tool reveals how businesses proactively react to trade policy, evidenced by a massive surge in metal imports ahead of Section 232 implementation and heightened price volatility among major trading partners. These findings underscore the profound economic impact of aggressive trade enforcement and subsequent legal challenges, such as the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain emergency tariff actions.
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The report argues that the U.S. housing affordability crisis is driven by a chronic deficiency in supply rather than demand-side issues. It finds that popular demand-side subsidies, such as 50-year mortgages or interest rate buydowns, are counterproductive because they inflate prices in an inelastic market. To address this, policymakers should focus on supply-side interventions like upzoning, standardizing modular housing, and reforming property tax systems to tax land more than structures. Ultimately, meaningful progress requires reducing local regulatory control to overcome systemic biases against new residential development.
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Brookings proposes the establishment of 'US Re,' a federal reinsurance entity designed to stabilize the U.S. homeowners insurance market against mounting climate-driven catastrophic risks. By leveraging the federal government’s lower cost of capital, US Re could provide more affordable and consistent coverage for extreme weather events than the volatile private reinsurance market. This strategic intervention aims to curb rising premiums and policy cancellations, ultimately protecting household financial stability and the broader housing market from climate-related shocks.
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A new Brookings/Hamilton Project paper by Adam Solomon examines how foreign governments use public reinsurance to address natural catastrophe insurance market failures, drawing lessons for a proposed U.S. federal reinsurance entity. Analyzing programs in Australia, the U.K., France, Spain, Japan, and elsewhere, Solomon finds that the most durable systems combine risk-based pricing, mandatory broad participation to prevent adverse selection, defined hazard coverage, and credible funding backstops such as industry levies and government guarantees. The paper concludes that well-designed public reinsurance can stabilize strained insurance markets by concentrating government capital on correlated tail risks while preserving private-sector underwriting and mitigation incentives—offering a viable policy path as U.S. property insurance becomes increasingly unaffordable or unavailable due to extreme weather.
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This Brookings event examines how Ukraine has transformed from a peripheral 'blank spot' on Europe's mental map into a central pillar of European security, driven by its resistance to Russia's full-scale invasion. Historian Karl Schlögel argues that Ukraine's battlefield resilience and civil defense innovations have earned it a place in the European family, with countries like Germany now looking to Kyiv for strategic lessons. The discussion highlights that while Europe increasingly recognizes Ukraine's importance to its own defense architecture, Ukraine's path toward deeper institutional integration remains fraught with political and structural challenges, particularly amid a shifting transatlantic relationship.
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Brookings hosted a discussion on the sweeping changes to the federal student loan program enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed in July 2025. The legislation reduced borrowing limits for graduate students and parents while overhauling the repayment system for both new and existing borrowers. The event featured Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, a panel of higher education policy experts, and Undersecretary of Education Nicholas Kent discussing impacts on borrowers, families, and institutions. The discussion signals ongoing policy uncertainty as the administration implements these reforms, with significant implications for higher education access and affordability.
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This Brookings-RAND joint initiative examines whether current U.S. policy toward Taiwan and cross-strait relations remains adequate amid a deteriorating security environment in the Taiwan Strait. Through a series of expert workshops, the project explores five distinct policy pathways: limiting U.S. commitments while boosting Taiwan's self-defense, calibrating diplomacy to stabilize cross-strait dynamics, pursuing a more active denial strategy, and shifting toward strategic clarity. The analysis weighs how each option would affect U.S. deterrence posture, Taiwan's domestic politics, Beijing's strategic calculus, and broader Indo-Pacific security. The initiative signals growing mainstream debate within the U.S. policy community about whether the longstanding framework of strategic ambiguity should be revised or replaced, with significant implications for alliance management and escalation risk in the region.
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The article argues that the FCC's threat to revoke broadcast licenses over allegedly inaccurate war reporting represents a dangerous government overreach into content regulation and free expression. Drawing on the FCC chairman's warning to broadcasters during the Iran conflict, CATO traces how outdated Supreme Court precedents (NBC v. United States, Red Lion) grant the FCC unusually broad authority to police broadcast content under a 'public interest' standard, effectively giving broadcasters 'junior varsity' First Amendment rights. The piece contends that truth emerges through open debate in the media marketplace, not government diktat, and that wartime conditions have historically been exploited to suppress dissent—from the 1798 Sedition Act to Cold War-era broadcast suppression. CATO recommends abolishing the FCC's public interest licensing framework entirely and moving to spectrum auctions, which would eliminate the legal basis for government content regulation of broadcasters.
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This CATO article revisits Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin Jr.'s famous 1955 'punch bowl' speech, arguing that its deeper message—beyond the well-known monetary policy metaphor—centers on the moral case for free enterprise, limited government, and individual economic freedom. Martin advocated a humble, rules-based approach to monetary policy focused on long-run price stability, warning against central planning and excessive government control. The article draws lessons for today's policy environment, cautioning against political pressure to expand the Fed's mandate into fiscal monetization, environmental, and social objectives, and argues that a simple monetary rule could replace much of the Fed's current discretionary framework.
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The CATO Institute argues that the Trump administration's 60-day Jones Act waiver for energy and fertilizer shipments is an implicit admission that the law itself is a supply chain impediment rather than a national security asset. The article notes that only a tiny fraction of global vessels comply with the Jones Act—zero oceangoing dry bulk ships for fertilizer, one LNG tanker, and just 54 oil tankers out of nearly 7,500 worldwide—while US shipbuilding is in 'near total collapse' and the Jones Act-compliant fleet has halved since 1980. CATO contends that rather than relying on legally questionable temporary waivers, Congress should repeal the Jones Act entirely to permanently lower shipping costs, strengthen supply chains, and develop a more effective maritime policy.
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This article argues that public defenders serve as an essential check on state power in the criminal justice system, acting as 'friction in the machine' that prevents governmental overreach and protects constitutional rights. Drawing on the author's experience as a public defender in Pueblo, Colorado, and the legacy of Gideon v. Wainwright, the piece contends that plea-driven mass adjudication has displaced jury trials while jails overflow with low-level offenders even as clearance rates for serious crimes decline. The author highlights that with over 5,000 federal statutory crimes and 400,000 regulatory offenses, virtually anyone could face prosecution, making robust public defense a universal safeguard. The implications point toward the need for greater investment in indigent defense and reforms to bail and plea-bargaining systems to restore the adversarial process the Framers intended.
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FISA Court Judge Boasberg has ordered the Trump DOJ to disclose Section 702 noncompliance records by April 10, responding to a Cato Institute FOIA lawsuit, as Congress prepares to vote on the surveillance program's future. The article argues that Section 702's warrantless 'incidental collection' of communications between US firearms importers and foreign suppliers effectively creates an illegal shadow firearms registry, violating the Firearm Owners Protection Act's explicit prohibition on federal gun registries. Cato contends that the structural standing barriers from the Supreme Court's Clapper ruling have shielded Section 702 from judicial review, but FOIA litigation and statutory challenges under FOPA may offer viable paths to contest surveillance overreach at the intersection of Fourth and Second Amendment rights.
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The article analyzes H.J. Res. 139, a balanced budget amendment by Rep. Andy Biggs that caps federal spending at a three-year rolling average of revenues adjusted for population growth and inflation, targeting structural primary balance rather than rigid annual balance. This design draws on Switzerland's successful debt brake, which has helped reduce Swiss debt-to-GDP by allowing cyclical flexibility while enforcing medium-term discipline. However, the amendment contains two significant flaws: a wartime exception requiring only a simple majority that creates perverse incentives for declarations of war to bypass spending limits, and a two-thirds supermajority requirement for tax increases that undermines political neutrality and makes bipartisan ratification virtually impossible. The author recommends fixing both the emergency loophole and the tax-increase provision to produce a durable, credible fiscal rule.
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The article argues that the US government is committing a $1 billion fraud by collecting immigration fees for services it has no intention of providing due to broad nationality-based bans. This claim is based on recent executive and departmental policies that freeze visa processing and benefit adjudications for citizens of up to 92 countries, often without statutory authority or prior notification to applicants. The author highlights that these measures disproportionately affect millions of legal applicants and calls for Congressional action to mandate fair adjudication and transparency in the immigration system.
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This article examines the current U.S. tax system, noting that while large amounts of income are already exempt from federal taxation, these benefits are applied unevenly across different household circumstances. It highlights how recent policy expansions, such as 'no tax on tips' and child tax credits, allow some well-situated families to shield over $150,000 in income while others with identical earnings face higher liabilities. The author argues that further layering of targeted exemptions risks increasing system complexity and revenue volatility, advocating instead for consolidating existing credits into a single, uniform deduction to ensure greater consistency and economic efficiency.
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The article argues that the reported move to waive the Jones Act underscores how the 1920 law structurally inflates domestic transportation costs and restricts supply chain flexibility, particularly for energy and fertilizer. By limiting domestic shipping to a tiny, expensive fleet of US-built vessels, the act forces inefficient workarounds and increases reliance on foreign energy imports rather than domestic resources. The author contends that while a waiver would not single-handedly slash fuel prices, it would enhance competition and capacity in a stressed market. Ultimately, the frequent need to suspend the law during emergencies suggests that its permanent removal would better serve long-term economic and national security interests.
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The article contends that a U.S. ground invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic undertaking, dwarfing the scale of the Iraq and Vietnam wars due to Iran’s punishing mountainous terrain and dense urban centers. Achieving total surrender would realistically require up to 1.6 million troops, a mobilization that would compromise other global security commitments and likely necessitate a military draft. The author highlights that Iranian "mosaic" defensive strategies and regional militias would trigger a prolonged insurgency while allowing rivals like Russia and China to exploit American overextension. Consequently, the analysis advocates for immediate de-escalation to avoid a strategic quagmire and preserve U.S. military readiness.
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The article argues that despite the United States' shift toward aggressive protectionism and abandonment of multilateral leadership, the remaining 165 WTO members can and should continue global trade liberalization independently. By adopting a WTO-based plurilateral approach and moving away from strict consensus decision-making, these nations can address 21st-century challenges like digital trade while bypassing American commercial recalcitrance. Evidence suggests that global supply chains are already reconfiguring through 'trade deflection' and new non-US agreements, proving that international trade can persist without the U.S. at its center. Ultimately, collective action within the WTO framework is necessary to prevent global economic fragmentation and to maintain the rule-based system until the U.S. returns to a cooperative role.
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Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have entered a state of 'open war' following lethal cross-border airstrikes triggered by Islamabad’s claims that Kabul is harboring Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. The escalation has resulted in significant civilian casualties and the failure of mediation efforts by regional actors like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, marking the most severe breakdown in relations since 2021. The conflict threatens to destabilize China’s regional infrastructure projects and could provide operational space for extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. Consequently, the breakdown in bilateral ties may force regional powers, including India and Russia, to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies toward the Taliban regime.
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The conflict in Sudan has reached a critical juncture with evidence indicating a 'genocidal path' in El Fasher, where the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have allegedly conducted systematic mass killings and sexual violence against non-Arab ethnic groups. Reports from a UN Fact-Finding Mission document extreme atrocities, including the use of starvation as a weapon of war and the execution of thousands of civilians following a prolonged siege. To address these crimes, the international community must expand the International Criminal Court's jurisdiction throughout Sudan and implement strict measures to terminate external arms flows that sustain the warring parties.
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The Council on Foreign Relations details the emerging postwar governance structure for Gaza, centered on the U.S.-led Board of Peace and a 15-member Palestinian Technocratic Committee (NCAG) designed to replace Hamas in daily administration. Twelve confirmed Palestinian technocrats, many with professional backgrounds in the Palestinian Authority or Gaza’s private sector, will manage essential services and infrastructure under international supervision as part of a broader twenty-point peace plan. While the initiative has secured initial funding and troop commitments from several nations, its long-term success faces significant hurdles due to the lack of formal buy-in from local stakeholders and international concerns regarding the Board’s institutional scope.
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44.
The landslide victory of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in Nepal marks a significant breakthrough for Gen Z-led political movements in Asia, diverging from recent electoral failures of youth-led protests in neighboring countries. Led by 35-year-old Balendra Shah, the party successfully leveraged Nepal’s young demographic—where 56% of the population is under 30—to secure a rare parliamentary majority on a platform of technocratic reform and anti-corruption. This electoral mandate offers a historic opportunity for political stability in a nation that has cycled through 27 prime ministers since 1990, potentially enabling the structural reforms required to address systemic economic stagnation and talent flight.
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Prime Minister Takaichi’s visit to Washington serves as a critical test of the U.S.-Japan alliance as the Iran War forces a shift from strategic alignment to transactional demands for Middle East military support. While President Trump pressures Japan for naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz, Takaichi is constrained by constitutional limits and is instead leveraging economic concessions, including $550 billion in U.S. investment commitments, to maintain the partnership. The outcome will determine if Japan can preserve its vital U.S. security guarantee against China while navigating the legal and political risks of entanglement in a regional conflict.
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46.
The Trump administration's new cyber strategy is dangerously inadequate, offering only four pages of substance while failing to even mention China, Iran, Russia, or North Korea as threats despite escalating cyber operations from these adversaries. The strategy privileges offensive capabilities over defense and deregulation over minimum security standards, yet U.S. Cyber Command lacks sufficient forces and experienced leadership, key diplomatic and civilian cyber offices have been gutted, and no framework exists for the private-sector offensive operations it envisions. The resulting gap between the administration's rhetoric of cyber dominance and its actual institutional capacity leaves U.S. critical infrastructure increasingly exposed to nation-state intrusions and ransomware at a moment when military operations abroad are generating new asymmetric retaliation risks.
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47.
The article argues that the Iran conflict's disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping poses a severe threat not only to energy markets but to global food security and water supply. Gulf states are nearly entirely import-dependent for staple grains, and the region accounts for roughly one-quarter of global fertilizer production transiting the strait—meaning price spikes and supply shortages will cascade worldwide, particularly in vulnerable nations already facing hunger crises. Iranian strikes on desalination infrastructure further endanger water access for over 100 million people in the Gulf. Drawing parallels to the Ukraine war's lasting fertilizer market disruption, which pushed 27 million more people into poverty, the author warns that the systematic weaponization of food, water, and fertilizer could convert a regional military conflict into a global humanitarian catastrophe, especially as rising defense spending crowds out development aid.
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48.
Charles Kupchan argues that the Trump administration should pursue a strategy of neutralizing Iran's regime rather than attempting to topple it, advocating for an 'Islamic Republic 2.0' with moderate leadership and strict constraints on its nuclear, missile, and proxy capabilities. He draws on the disastrous outcomes of U.S.-led regime change in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria to warn that dismantling the Islamic Republic would likely produce state fracture, civil war, and regional instability rather than democracy. The article notes that Iran's deeply embedded security apparatus—over one million troops plus paramilitary forces—makes regime collapse unlikely through airpower alone, while arming ethnic minorities risks igniting a multi-country civil war. Kupchan recommends focusing military strikes on degrading Iran's military capability while maintaining diplomatic channels to pragmatic Iranian elites, arguing that a defanged regime, even if imperfect, is far preferable to the chaos of state collapse.
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49.
The article argues that the convergence of low-cost drone technology and precision guidance has ushered in an era of 'precise mass' warfare, first demonstrated in Ukraine and now fully manifest in the U.S.-Iran conflict surrounding Operation Epic Fury. The authors highlight a critical cost-exchange imbalance: defending against $20,000-$50,000 Shahed-136 drones requires interceptors costing $125,000 to $4 million each, rapidly depleting limited air defense stockpiles across the Gulf states and potentially drawing down Indo-Pacific reserves needed to deter China. The implications are stark—the U.S. must dramatically increase investment in attritable, scalable systems like LUCAS beyond the current 0.5% of defense spending, as precise mass capabilities are becoming a permanent feature of modern warfare that empowers both great powers and lesser states alike.
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50.
Six CFR fellows assess the geoeconomic fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, arguing that disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, with Brent crude surging above $100/barrel and roughly 10 million barrels per day taken off the market. The cascading effects extend well beyond energy: global fertilizer exports, food security for import-dependent Gulf states, and commercial data center infrastructure (including Amazon facilities in the UAE) have all been hit, while central banks face stagflationary pressures that complicate monetary policy. The analysis concludes that Washington has no easy options—strategic reserve releases and eased Russia sanctions have proven insufficient—leaving policymakers to choose between difficult concessions to Tehran or further military escalation, while also reconsidering the wisdom of concentrating critical AI infrastructure in volatile regions.
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51.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have led to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting Gulf oil production by 10 million barrels per day and reducing strait transit to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels, causing acute energy shortages across Asia. Asian governments are resorting to fuel rationing, shortened workweeks, and costly subsidies to manage the crisis, but most countries could exhaust oil reserves within a month, while factories shutter and tourism plummets. The unsustainable fiscal burden of subsidies—already pushing Indonesia past its legal deficit cap—combined with historical precedents of fuel-price-driven unrest across South and Southeast Asia, raises the risk of severe economic contraction and political instability if the conflict persists through the summer.
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52.
This CFR roundtable examines the global energy crisis triggered by Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens to remove roughly 20 million barrels per day—about 20% of global petroleum consumption—dwarfing the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo's 7% disruption. Despite the largest-ever coordinated IEA reserve release of 400 million barrels, aging SPR infrastructure limits actual throughput to a fraction of the shortfall, and alternative pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only partially compensate. The discussion highlights that oil prices remain lower than expected only because markets anticipate a quick resolution, while Russia and Iran are paradoxically profiting from the crisis, and China's long-term electrification strategy is being validated as a model of energy security planning.
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53.
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign in Iran is cascading into a global humanitarian crisis by disrupting the Dubai-based International Humanitarian City logistics hub, spiking oil prices toward $150/barrel, and straining fertilizer supply chains routed through the Strait of Hormuz. These compounding shocks—alongside dollar appreciation making imported food staples unaffordable—are driving up operational costs for aid organizations already underfunded after U.S. cuts to UNHCR, while displacement in the region could exceed tens of millions if even a fraction of Iran's 90 million population flees. The author urges the Trump administration to immediately release $5.5 billion in congressionally appropriated humanitarian funds and follow with supplemental funding, warning that without rapid action the convergence of logistics gridlock, energy shocks, and mass displacement will push vulnerable populations from emergency into famine.
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54.
The Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk—after the company refused to drop AI safety guardrails in its military contract—represents an unprecedented and legally dubious use of authorities designed to counter foreign adversaries like Huawei and Kaspersky. The article argues this retaliation undermines U.S. credibility, noting that OpenAI's own enforcement mechanism (the right to walk away) is effectively the same leverage Anthropic tried to exercise, and that no Chinese AI firm has received such a designation even as five major Chinese models launched in a single month. The author calls on Congress to legislate clear boundaries for military AI use rather than leaving terms to ad hoc contract negotiations, and urges the defense industry to break its silence, warning that acquiescence to executive overreach sets a precedent that will eventually be turned against every contractor in the ecosystem.
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55.
This CFR podcast examines how the war in Ukraine is sustained by competing alliance networks: NATO and European allies backing Ukraine, while Russia draws critical support from China (economic and technological), Iran (drones), and North Korea (troops and munitions). The analysis highlights that neither coalition is a traditional bloc alliance—China carefully avoids direct weapons transfers to protect its economy and reputation, while the U.S. under Trump has shifted from alliance leader to self-styled neutral mediator with a pro-Russia lean, forcing Europeans to dramatically increase their own defense commitments. The episode argues that the global order is moving toward more transactional, fragile partnerships rather than values-based alliances, creating a less stable and more unpredictable security environment than even the Cold War's rigid bipolarity.
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56.
National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned in protest against the war in Iran, asserting that the conflict lacks an imminent threat justification and fails to serve American interests. This internal rupture coincides with escalating Israeli military operations against Iranian leadership and growing friction between the U.S. and NATO allies over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict is triggering global repercussions, including an energy crisis that has forced nations like Sri Lanka to implement austerity measures. These developments suggest a deepening isolation of U.S. foreign policy and a heightening risk of a broader, uncoordinated regional war with significant economic fallout.
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57.
Israel's targeted killing of top Iranian security and military officials Ali Larijani and Gholam Reza Soleimani marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, potentially destabilizing Iran's command structure. This military action occurs as the United States faces increasing isolation from NATO allies, who have rejected calls to join a naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid direct involvement in the war. Consequently, while Israel and the U.S. have successfully degraded certain Iranian capabilities, the strategy’s success hinges on whether these leadership losses will trigger a popular uprising or simply lead to a bureaucratic reorganization within a resilient Iranian cadre.
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58.
President Trump is calling for an international coalition, including NATO allies and Asian partners, to militarily secure the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict with Iran enters its third week. The push follows unsuccessful U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island and subsequent Iranian retaliatory attacks on Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, which have collectively sparked a global energy crisis. By linking ally participation to the future of NATO, the administration is signaling a high-stakes strategy to internationalize the military burden while allies remain cautious about further escalation.
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59.
Iran’s new leadership has committed to continuing the conflict, emphasizing ongoing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and further retaliation against U.S.-Israeli strikes. This defiant stance is met with a similar pledge from Washington to advance military operations, indicating that both sides are preparing for an escalation rather than a diplomatic resolution. The ongoing hostilities have already caused significant global energy shocks, forcing the U.S. to adjust sanctions on other oil producers like Russia to stabilize markets. For regional strategy, these developments suggest a protracted war with high risks of expanded conflict and long-term economic disruption.
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60.
A U.S. military investigation reveals that outdated targeting data led to a Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, resulting in at least 175 civilian deaths at the onset of the war. This tragedy highlights the impact of a 90 percent reduction in specialized Pentagon teams dedicated to minimizing civilian casualties during military operations. The mounting human toll and associated global energy disruptions are shifting the conflict toward a prolonged struggle of political endurance, while complicating U.S. diplomatic relations with key allies like Spain.
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61.
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a significant maritime confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supplies and necessitating a potential release of strategic energy reserves. Evidence of this expansion includes the U.S. destruction of Iranian mine-laying vessels and reports of attacks on commercial shipping, alongside a staggering initial war cost of $5.6 billion for Washington within the first two days. Consequently, the war is forcing a strategic pivot of U.S. missile defense assets from East Asia to the Middle East, while highlighting vulnerabilities in global interceptor supplies for other theaters like Ukraine.
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62.
Max Boot argues that Operation Epic Fury suffers from a critical "strategy gap," where tactical military successes—such as precision strikes on Iranian leadership—fail to achieve clear political objectives or a viable exit strategy. While the U.S. has degraded Iranian infrastructure, Tehran has successfully retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz and depleting American munitions stocks at an unsustainable rate. This rapid consumption of high-tech interceptors like Patriot missiles creates significant strategic vulnerabilities in other theaters, particularly regarding China and North Korea. Ultimately, the conflict underscores the limits of U.S. military power in translating tactical dominance into long-term political or economic stability.
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63.
This discussion examines the 1941 Lend-Lease Act as a transformative moment in U.S. foreign policy that navigated the tension between intense domestic isolationism and the strategic necessity of supporting Allied democracies. Historian Lynne Olson details how President Roosevelt overcame political opposition by framing the provision of military supplies to Britain as a defensive measure to keep the United States out of direct combat. The Act's passage effectively ended American neutrality and accelerated the industrial mobilization critical for the eventual Allied victory in World War II. These events illustrate how strategic aid can serve as a vital tool for national security and global stability during periods of international crisis.
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64.
This podcast episode analyzes the strategic shift in U.S. policy following President Trump's decision to launch a large-scale military campaign against Iran that resulted in the death of the Supreme Leader. Dalia Dassa Kaye argues that while the administration sends mixed messages, the targeting of top leadership signals an uncoordinated attempt at regime change rather than a limited strike on nuclear facilities. She warns that the lack of a viable political alternative or a clear 'day after' plan risks plunging the region into a 'Libya-style' chaotic vacuum characterized by bloody internal conflict and massive refugee flows. Furthermore, the conflict strains relations with Gulf partners who fear the fallout and provides geopolitical openings for China and Russia to exploit American military overextension.
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65.
The Trump administration is executing a "maximum pressure" campaign against Cuba by choking off oil imports through naval interdictions and tariff threats against suppliers like Mexico, following the fall of the Maduro regime in Venezuela. This strategy has crippled Cuba’s power grid and essential services, pushing the island toward a potential "crash landing" as domestic legitimacy reaches an all-time low. While reports of back-channel talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Castro family suggest a possible opening for a managed transition, the lack of a clear regime successor and strict U.S. legislative hurdles complicate a diplomatic exit. The situation represents a high-stakes gamble that risks a humanitarian catastrophe to force the end of communist rule.
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66.
This CFR podcast examines President Nixon's historic 1972 visit to China, arguing it was a strategically consequential move that exploited the Sino-Soviet split to give the United States leverage over Moscow, reduced Chinese support for North Vietnam, and began a fundamental shift in American attitudes toward China from ideological adversary to potential partner. Historian Jeremi Suri highlights that the opening was possible because both sides had converging interests—Nixon sought to outmaneuver the Soviet Union while Mao faced border tensions with Moscow and domestic instability from the Cultural Revolution—and was executed through extraordinary White House secrecy bypassing the State Department. The episode draws lessons for today: the U.S. benefits from engaging adversaries diplomatically rather than relying on non-recognition, but the costs of excluding career diplomats and allied governments from the process—as seen in Japan's shock at the announcement—underscore that dramatic personal diplomacy without institutional follow-through can delay substantive outcomes and damage alliances.
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67.
F. Gregory Gause III argues that Saudi Crown Prince MBS has shifted from an aggressive, interventionist foreign policy to one emphasizing regional stability after Iran's 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities and the lack of U.S. response. Saudi Arabia now prioritizes economic modernization (Vision 2030), opposes U.S. military action against Iran for fear of retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure, and has raised the cost of Israeli normalization by demanding a pathway to Palestinian statehood. The analysis highlights a growing Saudi-Emirati divergence over whether to back central governments or non-state actors, while Riyadh continues to view Washington—not Beijing—as its primary security and technology partner, particularly in AI and defense.
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68.
UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash details the impact of Iran's missile and drone campaign against Gulf states, revealing that the UAE has been struck by over 2,000 projectiles targeting civilian infrastructure rather than the U.S. military facilities Iran claims. Gargash argues Iran's strategy is counterproductive, as it has shattered trust with traditional Gulf mediators like Oman and Qatar, exposed the reality of Iran's threat capabilities, and will paradoxically strengthen Israel's role and the U.S. defense relationship in the Gulf for decades. He calls for any postwar settlement to include enforceable guarantees against both Iran's nuclear program and its missile and drone arsenal, while signaling UAE willingness to join an international coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
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69.
A CFR expert panel analyzes the geoeconomic fallout from the Iran war, which has produced what the IEA calls the largest oil supply disruption in history, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a trickle and crude prices surging past $100/barrel. Panelists argue the Trump administration underestimated Iran's willingness to escalate by closing the strait after its leadership was targeted, and that neither strategic petroleum reserve releases nor eased Russia sanctions have meaningfully stabilized markets, with potential GDP contractions of up to 14% in Qatar/Kuwait and recessionary risks for the U.S. if the crisis persists. The disruption is reshaping Gulf security dynamics—driving GCC states toward defense diversification away from sole U.S. reliance—while delivering a financial windfall to Russia, validating China's energy stockpiling strategy, and threatening Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE hub ambitions, with no assured resolution short of Iran agreeing to a ceasefire.
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70.
This CFR panel examines the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran launched in late February 2026, exploring how decades of Iranian nuclear ambition, proxy warfare, and the regime's brutal suppression of domestic protests converged to trigger the strikes. Panelists note that Iran's selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader signals hardline continuity rather than reform, while the opposition remains fragmented and outgunned by the IRGC. The war has exposed Iran's lack of reliable great-power allies, as neither Russia nor China intervened meaningfully, and has severely degraded Iranian military and proxy capabilities including Hezbollah. However, experts warn that the Trump administration lacked adequate planning for day-after scenarios, civilian evacuations, and energy market disruption, and that a weakened but surviving regime could become more repressive domestically while periodically requiring future military action to prevent rearmament.
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71.
Following the Supreme Court's rejection of IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. is pivoting to Section 122 and 301 authorities to maintain a high-tariff regime that is increasingly used for non-trade geopolitical leverage. Experts suggest that while the administration has secured several asymmetric bilateral deals, this unilateralist approach risks fragmenting global trade and isolating the U.S. from the allies needed to counter China's systemic industrial overcapacity. The panel highlights that China's growing trade surplus and manufacturing dominance remain unresolved by current protectionist measures or the existing WTO framework. Consequently, U.S. strategy may be drifting toward a 'Fortress America' posture that increases domestic costs while ceding influence over future global trade rules and market opportunities.
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72.Term Member and Young Professionals Screening and Discussion of "Jean Monnet, Europe’s Adventurer" (CFR)
This discussion of Jean Monnet’s legacy argues that his 'functionalist' method of building shared sovereignty through technical cooperation remains essential for revitalizing European integration and transatlantic stability. Panelists identified modern catalysts for unity, such as digital sovereignty and AI, while advocating for a 'pragmatic federalism' where smaller coalitions move forward on defense and diplomacy to bypass current EU institutional gridlock. The findings emphasize that the European project must return to Monnet's principle of transforming specific points of friction into common goods to address contemporary geopolitical threats and internal fragmentation.
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73.
Fifteen years after the Fukushima disaster, Japan is reintegrating nuclear power into its energy mix to bolster energy security and meet decarbonization targets. The shift, codified in the 2025 Strategic Energy Plan, aims to reduce the country’s precarious over-reliance on imported natural gas, which exposed Japan to significant geopolitical risks following conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. While supported by extensive safety reforms and the strategic need to compete with China’s nuclear expansion, the policy must still navigate persistent public skepticism. Success will require a flexible approach that balances nuclear restarts with diversified energy sourcing to ensure long-term stability.
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74.
The article highlights two central lessons from the history of U.S. foreign policy: the frequent occurrence of unforeseen global shifts and the persistent overestimation of military power's ability to achieve political goals. Drawing on examples from the Cold War to recent interventions in the Middle East, it illustrates how strategic expectations are often dashed by the resilience of local actors and the unpredictability of international alliances. The findings suggest that U.S. strategy should shift toward humility and pragmatism, acknowledging the limits of power and the inherent uncertainty of global events to better adapt to a changing world.
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75.
Stuart Reid, a senior fellow at CFR and former executive editor of Foreign Affairs, highlights the essential role of clear, 'translated' prose in making complex global issues accessible to a broad audience. His career emphasizes the value of specialized regional knowledge, demonstrated by his extensive work on African politics and the 1960 Congo crisis featured in his book, The Lumumba Plot. The interview underscores that combining editorial rigor with primary archival research is vital for documenting historical foreign policy entanglements and informing modern diplomatic understanding.
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78.
Saudi Arabia adopts a cautious and measured approach to the conflict with Iran, prioritizing its domestic economic and societal transformation over direct military escalation despite repeated Iranian provocations. While the Kingdom possesses the military capability to respond, it recognizes Iran's escalation dominance over vulnerable energy and desalination infrastructure, which makes the risk of a grinding war of attrition unacceptable. This stance suggests that Saudi Arabia will focus on securing more explicit defense commitments from the United States while remaining skeptical that the current conflict will lead to long-term regional stability or rapid normalization with Israel.
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79.
This CSIS report argues that the U.S. must prioritize its mineral supply relationship with South Africa despite recent diplomatic friction to avoid losing strategic access to China and Russia. South Africa remains the dominant supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, and military-grade vanadium, which are indispensable for U.S. defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization. To counter the migration of processing capacity to China, the report recommends U.S. investment in South African energy infrastructure through LNG-to-power agreements and renewed nuclear cooperation. Establishing price floors for defense materials and pairing financing with long-term offtake agreements are seen as essential steps to securing these critical supply chains.
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80.
CSIS has appointed Thamar Harrigan as the Chief of Staff and Director of Operations for its Economic Security and Technology Department. Harrigan brings extensive experience from the U.S. Trade and Development Agency and a background in international trade law to help drive the department's strategic and programmatic priorities. This leadership addition is intended to enhance the department's operational capacity and sharpen its research outputs on global markets and advanced technologies. The move strengthens CSIS's ability to provide practical policy solutions at the critical intersection of economic security and technological competition.
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81.
This CSIS newsletter highlights significant policy shifts across Indian states, emphasizing expanded social safety nets and targeted industrial growth. Key developments include Kerala’s implementation of Universal Health Coverage, Tamil Nadu’s new policy for the animation and gaming sectors, and Maharashtra’s establishment of an MSME Commissionerate. These legislative actions reflect a broader trend of state-level autonomy in driving economic modernization, improving public health access, and regulating social issues like inter-caste marriage and religious conversion. Collectively, these initiatives suggest that subnational governance remains the primary engine for implementing structural reforms and addressing infrastructure demands in India.
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82.
The U.S. Congress has reauthorized the SBIR and STTR programs through 2031 via the Small Business Innovation and Economic Security Act, ending a six-month funding lapse that threatened the startup ecosystem. The legislation introduces structural reforms, such as 'strategic breakthrough awards' of up to $30 million, specifically designed to help small businesses bridge the 'valley of death' between prototype development and commercial deployment. These updates also mandate stricter due diligence regarding foreign ownership and improved data collection to ensure federal R&D investments effectively bolster the U.S. industrial base and national security. Ultimately, the reauthorization seeks to convert domestic technological innovation into long-term strategic advantages amidst rising global competition.
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83.
This CSIS report warns that while the U.S. possesses sufficient aggregate energy, regional infrastructure constraints in key industrial hubs could jeopardize the defense industrial base's ability to mobilize for a high-intensity conflict. The analysis highlights that critical production for materials like titanium, aluminum, and semiconductors is geographically concentrated in regions such as PJM and ERCOT, which face eroding reserve margins, surging data center demand, and natural gas deliverability risks. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, the authors recommend extending "Defense Critical Electric Infrastructure" designations to private industrial nodes and utilizing the Defense Production Act to expedite permitting and financing for energy assurance projects. Integrating energy resilience into defense supply chain risk assessments is essential to ensure that localized grid or pipeline failures do not paralyze wartime production schedules.
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84.
William A. Reinsch argues that the global economy is facing extreme uncertainty driven by erratic U.S. tariff policies and the economic fallout from a conflict in the Middle East. The war has disrupted approximately 20% of global oil and gas supplies, leading to price spikes and threatening essential manufacturing supply chains in Asia and the West. The author contends that the administration's tactical, 'rinse and repeat' approach lacks a coherent strategy to address these interconnected crises. Consequently, the resulting climate of unpredictability discourages investment and risks a significant global economic slowdown as the fragility of key energy-producing regions is exposed.
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85.
This CSIS report argues that the U.S. government must transition from a mere R&D funder to a strategic 'demand creator' to help the quantum industry bridge the 'valley of death' between research and commercial deployment. The authors highlight that high technical uncertainty and long development timelines have left private investment insufficient, particularly when compared to the massive capital flows into AI. To overcome this, the report recommends institutionalizing guaranteed purchase commitments—modeled after Operation Warp Speed—and utilizing flexible contracting mechanisms to provide the market certainty needed to scale quantum computing, sensing, and networking infrastructure.
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86.
The United States must significantly increase and sustain national investment in quantum information science and technology (QIST) to maintain its competitive edge against global rivals like China. The report identifies critical gaps in aging federal research facilities at NIST and the Department of Defense, alongside a lack of shared-use infrastructure like testbeds and foundries necessary for commercial prototyping. Strategic recommendations include establishing a long-term funding framework for tech infrastructure, creating an interconnected national network of regional quantum ecosystems, and providing stable government demand signals to encourage private sector R&D.
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87.
Chicago is rapidly establishing itself as a premier global hub for quantum technology, leveraging a robust ecosystem of world-class universities, Department of Energy national laboratories, and significant state investment. The region's growth is supported by major initiatives like the Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park and the Duality accelerator, which attract global firms and foster multi-sector collaboration. Future development will focus on expanding the quantum workforce and strengthening supply chains to accelerate the commercialization of research and reinforce Chicago's position as a leading center for innovation.
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88.
Western governments must shift from merely incentivizing private mining to taking direct equity stakes in the industry to secure critical mineral supplies and counter China’s market dominance. The report highlights that the US is already leveraging billions in state-backed financing and board-level control to mitigate geopolitical vulnerabilities, a model the UK and EU must follow to prevent deindustrialization. This strategic shift requires mobilizing politically guided capital to provide the long-term investment necessary for mining projects that are often commercially unviable due to high volatility and low prices. Failure to secure these supply chains through direct ownership risks leaving critical manufacturing sectors vulnerable to foreign export controls and trade disruptions.
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89.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Washington underscores the strain on the Japan-US alliance as Japan’s oil-dependent economy suffers from US-led Middle East conflicts while facing pressure to increase defense spending. Despite significant commitments to Trump’s missile defense plans and tariff agreements, Japan remains wary of the US's long-term reliability in countering China’s regional assertiveness. Consequently, Tokyo is shifting its strategy toward greater self-reliance and the cultivation of diverse security and economic partnerships, such as with Australia and the CPTPP, to uphold a rules-based international order.
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90.The Iran war should boost security cooperation by US Pacific allies like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea (Chatham House)
The war between the US and Iran is prompting Indo-Pacific allies—Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines—to pursue deeper trilateral security cooperation to compensate for the sudden withdrawal of American military assets from the region. Recent redeployments of missile defense systems and Marines to the Middle East have highlighted the risks of over-reliance on US commitments, particularly as regional threats from China and North Korea persist. To mitigate this uncertainty, the article advocates for a formal trilateral arrangement to enhance military interoperability, intelligence sharing, and regional stability independent of shifting US defense priorities.
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91.The Iran war is exacting a heavy toll on Gulf oil and gas exporters – and creating risk and opportunity in North Africa (Chatham House)
The US-Israeli conflict with Iran is severely disrupting Gulf energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major producers to rely on insufficient and vulnerable alternative pipeline routes. This disruption is straining national budgets, especially in oil-dependent Iraq, and threatening the long-term market share of Gulf LNG as Asian buyers seek more reliable suppliers. In North Africa, the crisis presents a dual reality where energy importers like Egypt face significant inflationary pressures, while exporters like Algeria benefit from higher prices. These developments underscore the strategic fragility of the Gulf's economic model and may accelerate a permanent global shift in energy trade patterns and infrastructure.
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92.
Chatham House argues that Iran's long-standing 'forward defence' strategy has backfired, drawing the Islamic Republic into a direct and existential war with the U.S. and Israel. The systemic weakening of the 'axis of resistance'—marked by the fall of the Assad regime and significant losses for Hezbollah and Hamas—has collapsed the proxy-based shield Tehran used to avoid direct confrontation. As a result, Iran faces a severe degradation of its regional influence and must now manage a conflict on its own soil that it spent four decades trying to externalize. This strategic 'boomerang' likely necessitates a fundamental and painful reconfiguration of Iran’s national security doctrine.
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93.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) prioritizes clean energy expansion and economic resilience over specific emission reduction targets, signaling a strategic pivot toward technological supremacy. The blueprint emphasizes dominating global green tech production to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly those exposed by the Iran war and other geopolitical instabilities. Consequently, China is increasingly integrating its climate ambitions with broader foreign policy goals, leveraging its lead in clean technology to reshape international energy markets and challenge Western industrial competitiveness.
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94.Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK (Chatham House)
Finnish President Alexander Stubb contends that the EU and UK must abandon the 'punishment' mindset following Brexit to establish a pragmatic, flexible partnership. Citing shared values and the geopolitical pressure of an aggressive Russia, he advocates for closer ties in security, technology, and potential reintegration into the customs union or internal market. Stubb argues that European resilience depends on the UK’s voice in critical areas such as competition reform and climate change. This suggests a strategic shift toward 'flexible integration' to ensure regional stability and economic strength in a changing global order.
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95.
GCC states are increasingly embracing 'hard power' and diversifying security partnerships as trust in US security guarantees collapses following military escalations with Iran and the perceived flaws of the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan. While Gulf nations initially supported US initiatives to maintain diplomatic favor, the plan’s exclusion of Palestinian political agency and its failure to prevent Iranian retaliatory strikes against GCC territory have exposed critical strategic vulnerabilities. These developments have demonstrated the high cost of dependency on a US policy that fails to constrain Israeli actions or ensure regional safety. Consequently, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are transitioning toward more autonomous defense strategies and broader international coalitions to navigate worsening regional volatility.
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96.
The article argues that a robust security alliance between Poland and Germany is essential for European defense amidst rising Russian aggression and declining US reliability. This partnership is currently stifled by historical grievances, Polish domestic political infighting, and German strategic reluctance regarding defense investment and historical atonement. To overcome these barriers, the two nations are pursuing 'military diplomacy' through a bilateral defense agreement and multilateral security formats to modernize infrastructure and resupply national arsenals. Failure to solidify this axis risks leaving Europe vulnerable if Polish leadership continues to prioritize a potentially unreliable US partnership over regional integration.
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97.How the Russian Orthodox Church is recruiting for the Ukraine war – and alienating believers (Chatham House)
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has transitioned into a key recruitment and ideological tool for the Russian state, framing the invasion of Ukraine as a 'holy mission' to justify the conflict. The church utilizes military chaplains as front-line enforcers to prevent desertion while weaponizing 'traditional values' narratives to influence Western conservatives and undermine military aid to Ukraine. This aggressive alignment with the Kremlin is alienating domestic believers and leading to a decline in religious participation within Russia. Consequently, policymakers must recognize the ROC's role as a sophisticated soft-power instrument designed to exploit cultural divisions in the West.
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98.
The article reviews four new publications that analyze the intellectual and historical drivers of contemporary global shifts, ranging from climate diplomacy to the rise of American anti-liberalism. These works examine the personal dynamics of UN climate negotiations, the haphazard legacy of Asian partitions, the ideologues behind the MAGA movement, and the impact of academic narratives on China policy. The central argument is that individual agency and ideological frameworks are critical, often overlooked factors in shaping international relations and domestic political trends. Consequently, policymakers must look beyond immediate crises to understand these deeper ideological roots to effectively navigate geopolitical rivalries and strengthen multilateral cooperation.
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99.
The 2026 NPT review conference faces significant obstacles following the expiration of the New START treaty and a shift in US nuclear policy toward more aggressive deterrence and less emphasis on denuclearization. Experts caution that allegations of secret nuclear tests and the potential resumption of global testing threaten to unleash a new arms race, undermining decades of non-proliferation efforts. As confidence in traditional US security guarantees and NATO’s Article V wanes, European allies are increasingly compelled to seek alternative collective defense and deterrence arrangements.
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100.
The United States must leverage international partnerships and multilateral frameworks to break China’s dominant 'chokehold' on critical mineral supply chains essential for defense and high-tech industries. While previous unilateral approaches hindered progress, emerging 2026 initiatives like 'Project Vault' and the 'Forge' forum signal a strategic shift toward a collaborative 'Metals NATO' model. To successfully compete with China’s predatory pricing, U.S. policy must prioritize early-stage project funding and high environmental and labor standards to attract producing nations. These coordinated efforts are vital for securing the resilient supply chains required for national security and the global energy transition.
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101.
Europe faces a critical challenge from a second wave of nationalist populism that seeks to hollow out EU integration from within rather than pursuing an exit strategy. Supported by geopolitical shifts in Russia and the US, these far-right movements have normalized their agendas—particularly regarding migration and climate—within mainstream parties and are increasingly influencing EU-level legislation through deregulatory 'omnibus' packages. The upcoming 2026 elections, starting with Hungary, will determine if Europe can maintain the unity necessary to resist becoming 'easy prey' for foreign spheres of influence or if it will fracture into weakened, competing nationalist states.
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102.
Bob Rae asserts that Canada is undergoing a profound strategic pivot, moving away from traditional reliance on the United States in response to a 'rupture' in the rules-based international order. This shift is evidenced by Canada’s commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and the launch of its first-ever Defence Industrial Strategy to protect manufacturing and scientific capacity. The primary implication is that Canada will increasingly prioritize multilateral partnerships with Europe and the Asia-Pacific to safeguard its sovereignty, particularly regarding Arctic security and Ukraine, amidst growing US isolationism and volatility.
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103.
Venezuelan exiles in Miami face a paradoxical situation where the removal of Nicolás Maduro has brought joy but also heightened uncertainty regarding their legal status in the United States. The Trump administration’s suspension of Temporary Protected Status, combined with its pragmatic endorsement of Maduro loyalists in the transitional government, creates significant anxiety for the diaspora. These trends suggest a policy shift that prioritizes regional energy security and diplomatic normalization over the humanitarian and legal protections previously granted to Venezuelan migrants.
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104.
Greenland is currently navigating a surge in US interest driven by President Trump’s ambitions for its critical minerals and strategic location, while simultaneously facing the more existential threat of rapid Arctic warming. While Washington views the island as a 'near-domestic' solution to counter Chinese mineral dominance, local leaders are resisting being treated as a geopolitical 'chessboard' and are instead prioritizing sovereignty and partnerships with the EU and Denmark. The article highlights that while melting ice reveals new mineral wealth, the resulting environmental instability poses significant risks to the island's infrastructure and its vital fishing industry. Ultimately, Greenland’s strategy focuses on balancing economic development with strict environmental safeguards and the maintenance of its communal land traditions.
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105.
President Lula’s diplomatic ambiguity following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro is jeopardizing his reelection prospects and Brazil’s regional standing as Washington asserts hemispheric dominance. While Lula condemned the US raid as an affront to sovereignty, a majority of the Brazilian public supports the operation, allowing political opponents to frame his stance as a defense of authoritarianism. Consequently, Brazil risks being sidelined by US President Trump’s aggressive regional agenda or overwhelmed by potential instability and refugee flows if the Venezuelan transition fails. This strategic bind suggests that maintaining a neutral path without a clear pivot toward democratic principles may cost Lula his presidency and cede regional leadership to the United States.
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106.
The article emphasizes that Belarus's strategic location makes it a critical factor in European security, arguing that transitioning the country from a Russian ally to a European asset would stabilize the region. It points to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as evidence of how Russia exploits Belarusian territory to extend its military reach and threaten neighboring NATO members. While Lukashenka is currently tethered to Moscow for economic survival, his flexible foreign policy ideology suggests potential for shift if the West provides viable alternatives. Strategically, decoupling Belarus from the Kremlin's orbit would dismantle a major platform for Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.
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107.
The article challenges the Western perception of Chinese internet users as 'mindless automatons,' arguing instead that they are 'wall dancers' who innovatively navigate the 'Great Firewall' through a mix of resistance and adaptation. It highlights how individuals—from feminist activists to tech entrepreneurs—leverage cycles of political loosening and use creative wordplay or strategic framing to maintain agency despite increasing authoritarianism. The findings suggest that policymakers should move beyond viewing China solely through a lens of national security or economic threat, instead recognizing the complex, dynamic, and often contradictory nature of its civil society.
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108.
The 2026 Eurovision Song Contest marks a strategic shift toward transparency as organizers abandon noise-canceling technology previously used to muffle audience booing and political dissent. Driven by the Austrian broadcaster's commitment to realism, this change highlights the contest's deep fragmentation, exemplified by the withdrawal of five nations in protest of Israel's participation. The article argues that Eurovision has evolved into a primary arena where public sentiment mirrors the geopolitical tensions found in formal diplomatic institutions like the UN. For strategists, this evolution illustrates how cultural platforms are increasingly serving as visible barometers for regional polarization and the breakdown of enforced internationalism.
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109.
The article argues that the shift toward domestic-focused economic policies and the decline of U.S.-led 'hegemonic stability' are creating a precarious environment for global trade. Drawing on historical precedents like the Pax Britannica and Pax Americana, it suggests that trade growth flourishes when a dominant power fosters international policy alignment, which is now fracturing. Consequently, rising protectionism threatens to trigger a vicious cycle of economic decline, disproportionately harming emerging and developing nations that rely on open market integration.
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110.
The article argues that traditional cartographic conventions, which emphasize clean borders and jigsaw-puzzle shapes, fail to represent the complex realities of modern geopolitics and overlapping sovereignty. By examining cases like Greenland’s strategic connectivity and the South China Sea's ambiguous claims, the author illustrates how simplified maps can reinforce outdated mental models and obscure critical strategic data. For policymakers, embracing 'messier' maps that visualize strategic ambiguities and feathered edges of maritime rights is crucial for an accurate assessment of national security interests. This shift allows for a more nuanced understanding of frozen conflicts and the multi-layered nature of international relations.
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111.Could Vietnam’s new South China Sea bases open a ‘Pandora’s box’ of competitive island building? (Chatham House)
Vietnam is rapidly expanding its military footprint in the South China Sea by conducting land reclamation and infrastructure development across all 21 of its controlled features in the Spratly Islands. This strategic move, which includes building harbors and airstrips, aims to counter China's established presence and assert sovereignty over contested maritime zones. The escalation of competitive island building among regional claimants increases the risk of maritime clashes and threatens the stability of vital global shipping lanes. Ultimately, this militarization could trigger a broader cycle of regional tension, complicating international efforts to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.
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112.
The UK government faces a widening fiscal gap in its defense budget, threatening the implementation of its 2025 Strategic Defence Review and commitments to NATO. Despite pledges to reach a 3.5% GDP spending target, the Ministry of Defence already contends with a £17 billion equipment funding deficit and potential cuts to major land and naval programs. Failure to reconcile these gaps through increased taxation or borrowing may force the UK to either abandon its nuclear capability or cede its status as Europe’s leading military power. The forthcoming Defence Investment Plan will be the ultimate test of whether Britain can realistically sustain its global security ambitions.
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113.
The spring issue of Chatham House’s The World Today analyzes the 'Trump Effect,' arguing that Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency has fundamentally disrupted the global order through aggressive military actions and a retreat from traditional leadership. Key evidence includes the failure of Iran’s defense strategy following U.S. strikes, the capture of Venezuela’s leader, and a shift toward prioritizing economic security over global trade. These developments are forcing traditional allies like the UK and Canada to radically reassess their security dependencies and diplomatic strategies as the U.S. withdraws from its traditional global role.
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114.Kazakhstan referendum: The new constitution demonstrates a diminishing interest in Western values (Chatham House)
Kazakhstan’s comprehensive constitutional overhaul signals a strategic departure from Western liberal models in favor of a state-led, institutionalized authoritarian system similar to China’s. The amendments consolidate President Tokayev’s power and assert domestic law supremacy over international treaties, potentially undermining legal protections for foreign investors in the extractive sectors. While the reforms may strengthen national sovereignty against Russian influence, they also provide the state with greater leverage to restrict civil liberties and manage long-term political succession.
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115.
The article argues that African nations are increasingly exercising 'resource sovereignty' to manage their critical mineral wealth, challenging the paternalistic Western assumption that the continent requires external oversight to avoid exploitation. It highlights how countries like Burkina Faso and South Africa are leveraging global competition between the US and China to secure better infrastructure investments and nationalize key mining assets. For Western policymakers, this shift necessitates a move away from moralizing interventions toward engaging African states as equal economic partners capable of navigating geopolitical rivalries for their own benefit.
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116.
This article draws parallels between Britain’s current rearmament challenges and its 1930s struggle, arguing that the UK must transition from economic caution to an urgency driven by the fear of strategic defeat. Historically, this shift required overcoming political paralysis and eventually framing defense spending as a means to protect democratic values and stimulate economic revival. Consequently, modern policy may need to embrace a more interventionist state role, utilizing defense contracts to foster domestic innovation while preparing the public for the social and political costs of increased security.
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117.
Marion Messmer argues that international security is becoming increasingly volatile due to the proliferation of nuclear deterrence and the democratization of military technology like drones. She highlights how intangible advancements in AI and cyber-operations are reshaping the battlefield, making it harder to track adversaries and manage escalation. Ultimately, she suggests that while technology and non-state actors present significant new risks, incorporating diverse perspectives into the male-dominated security field is essential for building more resilient and durable peace.
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118.China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply (Chatham House)
China’s 15th Five Year Plan codifies a long-term shift toward economic resilience and technological self-reliance, driven by perceived vulnerabilities in globalized supply chains and geopolitical instability like the Iran war. The strategy emphasizes 'AI Plus' initiatives and increased R&D spending to secure autonomy in semiconductors, quantum tech, and digital infrastructure. However, this transition faces significant headwinds, including record-low growth targets and a capital-intensive tech focus that struggles to absorb a highly educated workforce. Ultimately, Beijing is prioritizing national security and high-quality manufacturing over the debt-driven, rapid expansion models of the past.
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119.
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a significant maritime crisis, centered on Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent disruption of Indian Ocean trade routes. Iran is employing asymmetric tactics, including coastal missile strikes and GPS jamming, to impose risks on shipping even as the US increases seizures of vessels linked to illicit trade. This environment of navigation interference and 'dark' shipping is driving traffic toward the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in higher costs and increased exposure to piracy.
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120.AI wars: Anthropic battles the Pentagon as China plans ahead. Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)
This Chatham House podcast discusses the deepening rift between the Pentagon and AI provider Anthropic over the company's ethical restrictions on lethal autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The dispute, which led to the firm being labeled a 'supply chain risk,' reveals a significant gap in global AI governance and the lack of established rules for AI in modern warfare. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its 'AI Plus' initiative to integrate artificial intelligence across its entire economic and military infrastructure. These developments highlight a critical need for policy frameworks that balance national security requirements with technological ethics and international competition.
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121.
The article argues that structural domestic factors, rather than just the US-Israeli war with Iran, are driving a long-term increase in US energy prices. Rising demand from data centers and expanded LNG exports are clashing with a tightening supply as the Trump administration rolls back low-cost renewable energy incentives and faces higher extraction costs from expensive gas basins. Consequently, American consumers are likely to experience significantly higher electricity and fuel costs, a trend exacerbated by deregulation and the removal of efficiency standards.
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122.Nigeria and Ghana foreign ministers discuss security, AES countries, Boko Haram and US operations (Chatham House)
West African foreign ministers emphasize that regional security and peacebuilding must be driven by locally-led solutions, citing the historical success of ECOMOG as a preferred model over direct foreign military intervention. They argue that regional violence is driven by a complex interplay of youth unemployment, climate change, and state collapse rather than purely religious motivations, necessitating a more nuanced international perspective. Consequently, they call for a supportive rather than direct role for the United States and a reset of relations with France. Furthermore, the ministers warn that the international community must take greater responsibility for African stability to prevent the region from becoming a safe haven for terrorist cells displaced from other global conflicts.
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123.
The article analyzes the resilience and adaptation of Iran’s “axis of resistance” amid unprecedented US and Israeli efforts to dismantle the network and target Tehran directly. While the June 2025 conflict marked a shift toward direct Iranian action, proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis continue to survive and evolve despite sustained decapitation campaigns. The persistence of these actors implies that current containment strategies are failing to fully degrade the network, requiring a fundamental reassessment of security policies in the Middle East.
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124.
The 2025 Chatham House Prize has been awarded to Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) for their vital humanitarian work during the country's ongoing civil war between the SAF and RSF. Operating in areas often inaccessible to international organizations, these grassroots networks provide essential food, water, and medical supplies while maintaining critical infrastructure under significant risk. This recognition underscores the indispensable role of localized, impartial mutual aid groups in addressing one of the world's largest displacement and humanitarian crises.
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125.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that a more flexible and differentiated model of European integration is essential for the continent to remain resilient and competitive amid rising geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes the need for pragmatic mechanisms that allow member states to respond rapidly to challenges in defense, energy, and technology without losing their shared sense of purpose. Ultimately, this approach is presented as a way to strengthen the European Union's collective ability to protect its interests and values in an era of shifting global alliances.
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126.Corporations Scoring High on Human Rights Campaign’s Equality Index Might Be Breaching Their Duty (Heritage)
The article argues that corporate managers may be breaching their fiduciary duties by adhering to the Human Rights Campaign’s (HRC) Corporate Equality Index, which promotes gender transition guidelines and identity-based policies. This alignment creates a material conflict with a recent executive order that defines sex as an immutable biological classification and restricts the promotion of gender ideology by federal contractors. Consequently, the author warns that corporations face significant legal and reputational risks if they prioritize HRC's social benchmarks over federal compliance and long-term shareholder interests.
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127.
An IISS crisis simulation found that Southeast Asian nations lack the 'strategic bandwidth' and specialized literacy required to manage a major nuclear-security escalation involving great powers. Centered on a 2031 scenario of a missing nuclear submarine, the exercise highlighted that regional states rely on the SEANWFZ Treaty as a baseline but struggle to bridge the divide between China and the AUKUS partnership. Consequently, the report recommends that ASEAN enhance domestic inter-agency coordination and utilize the ADMM-Plus framework to more effectively address nuclear-related regional security threats.
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128.
A RAND study, based on expert consensus, outlines an 'ideal' integrated policy framework for early cancer care. Developed through a three-phase Expert Consensus Panel and Validation Workshops involving global cancer policy experts, the framework identifies key components such as Public Education, Primary Care Capacity, and Data Infrastructure as highly important. The research emphasizes that advancing early cancer care requires a unified, system-wide approach built on collaboration, equity, and sustained investment, moving beyond isolated interventions. Policymakers should integrate education, detection, diagnosis, treatment, and system strengthening, adapting to national and local contexts for long-term sustainability and equitable patient outcomes.