The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Lula’s response to Maduro’s capture could cost him and Brazil dearly
English Summary
President Lula’s diplomatic ambiguity following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro is jeopardizing his reelection prospects and Brazil’s regional standing as Washington asserts hemispheric dominance. While Lula condemned the US raid as an affront to sovereignty, a majority of the Brazilian public supports the operation, allowing political opponents to frame his stance as a defense of authoritarianism. Consequently, Brazil risks being sidelined by US President Trump’s aggressive regional agenda or overwhelmed by potential instability and refugee flows if the Venezuelan transition fails. This strategic bind suggests that maintaining a neutral path without a clear pivot toward democratic principles may cost Lula his presidency and cede regional leadership to the United States.
中文摘要
巴西總統魯拉在美國逮捕馬杜洛後的外交曖昧態度，正危及其連任前景，並在華府確立西半球霸權之際衝擊巴西的區域地位。儘管魯拉譴責美國的突擊行動是對主權的侵犯，但多數巴西公眾支持該行動，讓政敵得以將其立場定性為對威權主義的辯護。因此，若委內瑞拉的政權過渡失敗，巴西將面臨被美國總統川普激進的區域議程邊緣化的風險，或被潛在的不穩定局勢與難民潮所淹沒。這種戰略困境顯示，維持中立而不明確轉向民主原則，可能會讓魯拉丟掉總統寶座，並將區域領導權讓給美國。
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