The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Ground War in Iran Would Be Hell
English Summary
The article contends that a U.S. ground invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic undertaking, dwarfing the scale of the Iraq and Vietnam wars due to Iran’s punishing mountainous terrain and dense urban centers. Achieving total surrender would realistically require up to 1.6 million troops, a mobilization that would compromise other global security commitments and likely necessitate a military draft. The author highlights that Iranian "mosaic" defensive strategies and regional militias would trigger a prolonged insurgency while allowing rivals like Russia and China to exploit American overextension. Consequently, the analysis advocates for immediate de-escalation to avoid a strategic quagmire and preserve U.S. military readiness.
中文摘要
本文指出，美國對伊朗發動地面入侵將導致災難性後果；由於伊朗地形崎嶇且城市密集，其行動規模將遠超伊拉克及越南戰爭。若要達成全面投降之目標，實際上可能需動員多達160萬兵力，這不僅會削弱美國對全球其他地區的安全承諾，且極可能被迫重啟徵兵制。作者強調，伊朗採取的「馬賽克」防禦戰略與地區民兵組織將引發長期的游擊叛亂，並使俄羅斯與中國等對手得以趁美國過度擴張之際攫取利益。因此，本文主張應立即降低緊張局勢，以避免陷入戰略泥淖，並維護美國的軍事戰備能力。
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