The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Gulf Goes Backward
English Summary
The article argues that Iran's pattern of limited, calibrated hostilities in the region is breaking down following the US-Israel conflict. Previously, Iran restricted its attacks to proxies or US/Israeli installations; however, it has dramatically expanded the battlefield by directly targeting vital infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states. This escalation suggests a rapid deterioration of regional stability and signals a move away from controlled deterrence. Policymakers must anticipate a significantly higher risk of a full-scale regional conflagration, necessitating immediate reassessment of deterrence strategies and security cooperation.
中文摘要
本文指出，在美國與以色列衝突之後，伊朗在該地區採取有限、可控的敵對行動的模式正在瓦解。過去，伊朗曾將其攻擊限制於代理人或美國/以色列的設施；然而，它已透過直接攻擊鄰近海灣國家的關鍵基礎設施，極大地擴大了戰場。這種升級顯示區域穩定性正在迅速惡化，並標誌著其偏離了受控威懾的模式。政策制定者必須預期全面區域戰火的風險顯著提高，這要求立即重新評估威懾戰略和安全合作。
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