ThinkTankWeekly

Weekly Archive / 2026-W38

1. 1.

   A Design Lab Pilot to Inform Strategies for Expanding Access to Medications for Opioid Use Disorder in Community Mental Health Centers (RAND)

   2026-09-18 | health | Topics: AI, Indo-Pacific, United States

   Despite MOUD being the standard of care for opioid use disorder, access remains severely limited in Community Mental Health Centers (CMHCs), which serve the primary population with co-occurring disorders. A Design Lab pilot identified payment limitations and regulatory complexity as the chief barriers to implementation. The most feasible and high-impact strategy identified was establishing a structured learning exchange between CMHC leaders and insurers to improve reimbursement understanding. Policymakers and payers are therefore advised to pilot this learning exchange model to initiate broader payment reform and expand evidence-based care for this vulnerable population.

   Read at RAND

2. 2.

   The Insurability of Artificial Intelligence (RAND)

   2026-09-16 | tech | Topics: AI, Cybersecurity, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States

   The report argues that the rapid integration of AI creates novel and complex risks—such as deepfakes, misinformation, and intellectual property disputes—that do not fit within existing insurance lines, challenging the technology's overall insurability. Evidence shows that while lawsuits center on IP, the scope of harm is expanding into privacy and product liability, and insurers are responding unevenly with a mix of exclusions and limited coverage. Policymakers must therefore focus on managing systemic, correlated AI risks, including shared model dependencies and universal attacks, to prevent market failure and guide necessary regulatory oversight.

   Read at RAND

3. 3.

   Research, development, and innovation talent in Qatar: The policy and program Landscape (RAND)

   2026-09-16 | economy | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

   Qatar aims to establish itself as a global hub for RDI, recognizing human capital as foundational to a knowledge-based economy. While the nation has launched numerous initiatives—including the Mustaqel Visa and specialized parks—the report finds that Qatar's RDI ecosystem faces structural gaps, evidenced by R&D expenditure remaining significantly below the OECD average and a workforce heavily reliant on expatriates. To achieve its 2030 goals, the study argues that Qatar must deepen the 'Triple Helix' collaboration between academia and industry, diversify private sector funding, and overhaul retention policies. Sustained policy coordination and strengthening career pathways for both local and international talent are critical for transforming potential into long-term economic capability.

   Read at RAND

4. 4.

   Positioning Qatar in the Global Research, Development, and Innovation Landscape: Comparative Insights from Small Advanced Economies (RAND)

   2026-09-16 | economy | Topics: Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, United States

   The RAND report assesses Qatar's RDI progress, finding that while national strategies are ambitious, systemic gaps limit the country's full potential. Key weaknesses include low domestic STEM engagement, fragmented support for early-career researchers, and limited knowledge transfer between academia and the private sector. To accelerate economic diversification, the report recommends comprehensive policy reforms, such as implementing a coordinated national STEM action plan and standardizing researcher support. Furthermore, Qatar must enhance international talent retention through labor policy reforms and establish clear national frameworks to boost industry-academia collaboration.

   Read at RAND

5. 5.

   Examining the Evolution of Veteran Labor Market Outcomes (RAND)

   2026-09-15 | economy | Topics: United States

   Using linked U.S. Census Bureau data, this report tracked veteran earnings over the first eight years in the civilian labor market, comparing them to non-veterans. The key finding is that veterans experienced significantly faster earnings growth—approximately 10 percentage points more—than comparable non-veterans, an advantage consistent across various demographic groups. While veterans may start with lower initial earnings, their strong growth trajectory suggests a positive long-term economic impact. Policymakers should leverage these findings to design targeted support programs for veteran transitions, though the authors recommend further research using comprehensive datasets to fully understand and maximize these career advantages.

   Read at RAND

6. 6.

   Onderzoek Experiment gesloten coffeeshopketen: Rapportage eerste vervolgmeting 2025: Study in support of the Controlled Cannabis Supply Chain Experiment: Baseline report 2025 (RAND)

   2026-09-15 | health | Topics: Europe, Trade

   The initial findings from the controlled cannabis supply chain experiment indicate that the closed system is improving coordination and increasing product variety in intervention areas compared to traditional markets. Key evidence shows that controlled environments facilitate better price stability and product diversity, yet participants report significant challenges regarding unclear national regulations (e.g., edibles, advertising) and the complexity of the tracking system. Policymatively, the report stresses the urgent need for standardized, clear national guidelines to govern product safety, packaging, and operational responsibilities. Establishing these unified rules is crucial for mitigating current regulatory ambiguities and ensuring the sustainable scaling of the controlled supply chain model.

   Read at RAND

7. 7.

   An Analysis of Zearn Math Implementation Costs (RAND)

   2026-09-14 | society | Topics: United States

   This RAND analysis assessed the implementation costs of Zearn Math, a K–8 math software platform, finding that the average per-student cost was $35.75 over two years, positioning it as a cost-effective educational tool. The report combines this cost data with randomized controlled trial results, concluding that Zearn Math is a promising approach to improving student math achievement and addressing persistent learning gaps. While the study noted that complex district procurement practices complicated calculating a cost-effectiveness ratio, the findings provide valuable guidance for school districts and policymakers. Overall, the research suggests that adopting adaptive educational technology can improve foundational skills and academic outcomes in a resource-conscious manner.

   Read at RAND

8. 8.

   Open-Weight AI Models May Increase Biological Misuse Risks: Assessing Anti-Refusal Tampering, Capability Enhancement, and Publicly Available Uncensored Models (RAND)

   2026-09-14 | tech | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Nuclear, Trade, United States

   The RAND report argues that open-weight Large Language Models (LLMs) significantly increase biological misuse risks because their public availability allows for unauthorized modification and removal of safety safeguards. Key evidence shows that moderately skilled actors can cheaply and reliably tamper with these models—primarily by removing refusal mechanisms—thereby making existing dual-use biological knowledge freely accessible without developer controls. This presents a critical policy challenge: balancing the substantial benefits of open research and transparency against the risk of unrestricted redistribution in sensitive domains like biosecurity. Policymakers must therefore develop strategies to mitigate the threat of tampering and misuse while preserving the scientific and economic advantages of open-source AI.

   Read at RAND

9. 9.

   Europe’s Hidden Trade Advantage (Foreign Affairs)

   2026-09-14 | europe | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

   The article argues that the European Union's institutional rules, often criticized as slow and bureaucratic, are in fact its greatest strategic advantage in a volatile global environment. This stability is highlighted by contrasting the EU's rules-based, durable agreements with the unpredictable, executive-driven trade policies of major powers like the U.S. The EU's requirement for consensus and formal review ensures that its trade commitments are reliable and binding. Consequently, global partners are increasingly viewing the EU as a stable, predictable, and rules-based alternative for trade and investment, shifting away from the uncertainty created by unilateral geopolitical actions.

   Read at Foreign Affairs

10. 10.

    Putin Will Not Yield (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-14 | europe | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The analysis concludes that despite significant economic and technological strain, President Putin remains politically impervious and deeply committed to the war in Ukraine. This determination is sustained by the Kremlin's successful use of the conflict to bolster 'Putinism,' suppress dissent, and weave the war into the core narrative of Russian statehood. Because the war has become a foundational element of the regime's self-confidence and identity, the Kremlin is unlikely to make concessions or accept a negotiated settlement in the near term. Policymakers must therefore anticipate continued escalation and an unwillingness to moderate its military objectives, viewing the conflict as essential to Russia's perceived great power status.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

11. 11.

    The Crumbling Defense of Europe (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-15 | defense | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that the planned US withdrawal of military assets from Europe, based on the premise that the continent must 'stand on its own feet,' is strategically flawed and dangerous. Key evidence includes detailed plans for slashing troops, aircraft, and command capabilities, occurring concurrently with Russia's escalation of hybrid and conventional warfare against NATO. The analysis warns that this withdrawal will leave Europe critically vulnerable and, more broadly, will undermine US global credibility, signaling to rivals that American commitments are unreliable in other theaters, including the Indo-Pacific.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

12. 12.

    The New Chinese Way of Cyberwar (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-15 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    The article argues that China is establishing digital chokepoints by penetrating critical U.S. infrastructure, creating a cyber asymmetry that gives Beijing a strategic advantage. This vulnerability is compounded by the decentralized nature and outdated hardware of American utilities. To counter this, the U.S. must leverage AI to create 'digital twins'—virtual replicas of critical systems—which allow for proactive stress-testing and vulnerability mapping. Policy recommendations include establishing a secure, national enclaved for AI testing, coupled with legal reforms (like safe harbor) and government-private partnerships to accelerate the necessary upgrades and secure the digital frontier.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

13. 13.

    Trump and Xi Can’t Stop the U.S.-China Spiral (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-16 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    The article argues that the U.S.-China relationship is structurally adversarial and cannot be resolved by high-level summits between leaders like Trump and Xi. Historically, breakthroughs required nuanced diplomacy and mutual trust, elements that are currently absent, as both leaders are ill-suited for the complex bargaining demanded by the rivalry. The analysis notes that China continues to assert its strategic independence, exemplified by its focus on partners like Russia, thereby limiting the efficacy of U.S. diplomatic efforts. Policymakers must temper expectations for a sudden breakthrough and prepare for a sustained, managed rivalry that addresses deep structural issues rather than relying on personal chemistry.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

14. 14.

    China’s Purges Are Working as Designed (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-17 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Europe, Russia, Trade

    The article argues that China's ongoing purges are not signs of weakness, but rather a sophisticated, historically rooted process of 'rectification' that strengthens the CCP's grip on power. This mechanism requires cadres to submit mandatory self-criticisms and build permanent, detailed personnel files (dossiers). This system of record-keeping is the CCP's primary source of resilience, creating profound, internalized discipline that controls internal dissent. Policymakers must recognize that the regime's durability stems from this deep internal control mechanism, making succession—rather than internal purges—the ultimate strategic vulnerability.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

15. 15.

    Cuba’s Point of No Return (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-17 | economy | Topics: Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

    Cuba is on a trajectory toward an accelerating state and economic collapse, risking a point of no return. The state is deteriorating into "authoritarian anarchy," retaining its capacity for political repression but losing the ability to provide basic public services like health and safety. Economically, while the private sector is growing, this expansion is highly unequal, fueling cronyism and widening class gaps between the elite and the poor. If the current trend continues, the country risks calcifying these defects into a dysfunctional baseline, severely diminishing the chances of a stable, democratic transition.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

16. 16.

    How to Understand the New Age of War (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-17 | defense | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The analysis argues that contemporary warfare is marked by a return to great power competition, often fueled by strategic hubris and historical overconfidence. A key failure across modern conflicts is the 'short-war fallacy'—the assumption that overwhelming military force guarantees a quick, decisive victory. This mindset blinds policymakers to the need for sustained resource mobilization and complex political outcomes. Consequently, effective strategy requires linking military objectives with clear, comprehensive political goals, rather than pursuing rapid, decisive regime changes or military victories in isolation.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

17. 17.

    America’s Attrition Trap (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-18 | defense | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

18. 18.

    Ebola Is Only the Beginning (Foreign Affairs)

    2026-09-18 | health | Topics: AI, China, United States

    The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the DRC serves as a critical warning that the global health security system is fundamentally unprepared for future biological threats. The difficulty in containing this outbreak is compounded by the rising risk of emerging pathogens and the growing potential for AI misuse in bioweapon development. Policy must therefore shift from reactive, crisis-driven funding to sustained, proactive investment in resilient public health infrastructure, particularly in conflict zones. Addressing this requires strengthening global surveillance, ensuring consistent international cooperation, and mitigating the intersection of conflict, climate change, and disease spread.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

19. 19.

    Congress Voted to Expand Presidential Tariff Power—Now It Owns What Comes Next (CATO)

    2026-09-18 | economy | Topics: China, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    Congress has significantly expanded presidential tariff authority by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, allowing the executive to impose up to 100% tariffs on key buyers of Russian energy and sanctions enablers. The article argues that this legislation represents a dangerous abdication of Congress's Article I authority, as it grants the executive vast, discretionary power without specifying criteria for enforcement. Historically, the executive could claim tariffs were its own doing; however, by writing and passing this new authority, Congress now owns the resulting trade policy and its economic consequences. This shift implies that future tariffs will be viewed by the public as a direct legislative action, potentially undermining the administration's credibility and creating political vulnerability.

    Read at CATO

20. 20.

    Anibowei v. Blanche Brief: Tightening the Border Search Loophole (CATO)

    2026-09-18 | society

    The brief challenges current border policies that allow agents to search travelers' digital devices without a warrant, arguing this violates the Fourth Amendment. Cato contends that the existing 'border-search exception' is being misused to grant the government an overly broad, warrantless window into private digital lives. The core argument is that personal possession of data should not be treated as a vulnerability, while third-party cloud storage should not be treated as a refuge. If upheld, these policies transform routine border crossings into invasive investigative checkpoints, significantly eroding constitutional privacy rights.

    Read at CATO

21. 21.

    Fed’s Rate Hike Exposes Lack of Underlying Framework (CATO)

    2026-09-18 | economy | Topics: United States

    The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.

    Read at CATO

22. 22.

    Friday Feature: Forest City Academy (CATO)

    2026-09-18 | society

    The article argues that conventional K-12 public education is often overly bureaucratic and fails to accommodate individual student needs, stifling creativity and agency. Forest City Academy (FCA) demonstrates an alternative model utilizing state vouchers and a mastery-based curriculum that emphasizes experiential learning, small group instruction, and student choice. This approach, which integrates outdoor play and practical skills alongside limited technology, suggests that policy should expand educational freedom and market-based choice to better align learning environments with holistic child development. Such reforms challenge the status quo by promoting parental agency and decentralized educational decision-making.

    Read at CATO

23. 23.

    Supreme Court Strikes Down President Trump's Mail Voting Grab (CATO)

    2026-09-17 | americas | Topics: United States

    The Supreme Court struck down a rule adopted by the USPS, initiated under President Trump's authority, that aimed to restrict mail voting for federal elections. The Court's ruling established that the federal government lacks the constitutional power to regulate state elections, which are primarily administered by state and local officials. Key reasoning centered on the rule's procedural flaws and the lack of Congressional authorization, making its implementation impossible. This decision significantly limits the executive branch's ability to interfere with state election processes, indicating that future attempts to control voting procedures would face substantial legal and statutory barriers.

    Read at CATO

24. 24.

    How to Improve the Trump Administration’s Tepid Proposal to Remove Race and Ethnicity from the Decennial Census (CATO)

    2026-09-17 | society | Topics: United States

    The Cato Institute argues that the Census Bureau's proposed removal of race and ethnicity questions from the decennial census is a necessary and overdue step to eliminate state-sanctioned racial discrimination. The authors argue that classifying people by race is inherently unethical, citing historical abuses like the use of racial data in genocide, and that the Constitution guarantees equal rights, not equal outcomes. They criticize current federal racial classification standards as absurd, noting that the definitions are often historically inaccurate and that the data collection process is merely a public opinion poll. Policy-wise, the article advocates for the complete elimination of all mandatory race and ethnicity data collection by the government, arguing that such data serves no useful purpose and only enables potential discrimination.

    Read at CATO

25. 25.

    Rideshare Licensing Fails the Consumer Protection Test (CATO)

    2026-09-17 | economy | Topics: United States

    The article argues that mandatory occupational licensing for rideshare drivers is largely redundant and fails to provide demonstrable consumer protection. Leveraging vast Uber datasets, researchers found no consistent evidence that state licensing requirements improve safety metrics, such as star ratings or the prevalence of hard braking, when compared to unlicensed drivers. Since ride-sharing platforms already vet drivers through ratings and the threat of account deactivation, licensing primarily acts as a supply restriction. Policy implications suggest that such regulations unnecessarily raise costs for consumers without improving quality, advocating instead for deregulation to boost competition.

    Read at CATO

26. 26.

    Keeping the Nuclear Genie in the Bottle (CATO)

    2026-09-17 | europe | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia

    The article analyzes Finland's agreement to coordinate its conventional forces with French nuclear capabilities, clarifying that no nuclear weapons will be stationed in Finland. The author argues that increased communication between nuclear powers, rather than the deployment of weapons, is beneficial for reducing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, particularly near Russia. For Europe, the policy recommendation is a responsible middle course: strengthening non-nuclear military capabilities to deter Russia while simultaneously negotiating a stable system, such as non-aligned buffer states. This approach is presented as a diplomatic alternative to both aggressive military action and surrender.

    Read at CATO

27. 27.

    Banning Minors' Access to Adult Websites (CATO)

    2026-09-17 | tech

    CATO research suggests that banning minors' access to adult websites is unlikely to substantially reduce overall consumption. Analysis of user data indicates that while initial bans cause temporary drops, users quickly circumvent restrictions using tools like VPNs or migrating to substitute, noncompliant websites. Consequently, regulation risks merely shifting activity to platforms with fewer safeguards rather than achieving a genuine reduction in exposure to adult content.

    Read at CATO

28. 28.

    Benoir v. Town of Parksley Brief: Governments Cannot Use Pretextual Reasons to Silence Critics (CATO)

    2026-09-17 | society

    This brief argues that local governments cannot use technical zoning ordinances or procedural loopholes as a pretext to suppress protected speech. The case involves a town attempting to shut down a food truck owner after the owner complained about an initial ban, using a general ordinance despite having made prior commitments. CATO contends that the district court fundamentally misunderstood First Amendment law by allowing the government to evade scrutiny based on technical legality rather than the true motive for the adverse action. If this ruling stands, it significantly weakens free speech protections, enabling local authorities to undermine civil liberties by hiding behind administrative technicalities.

    Read at CATO