The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Cuba’s Point of No Return
English Summary
Cuba is on a trajectory toward an accelerating state and economic collapse, risking a point of no return. The state is deteriorating into "authoritarian anarchy," retaining its capacity for political repression but losing the ability to provide basic public services like health and safety. Economically, while the private sector is growing, this expansion is highly unequal, fueling cronyism and widening class gaps between the elite and the poor. If the current trend continues, the country risks calcifying these defects into a dysfunctional baseline, severely diminishing the chances of a stable, democratic transition.
中文摘要
古巴正朝向加速的國家和經濟崩潰軌跡，瀕臨無法回頭的臨界點。國家正在惡化為「威權的無政府狀態」，雖然仍保留政治壓迫的能力，但已喪失提供醫療和安全等基本公共服務的能力。在經濟層面，儘管私營部門正在增長，但這種擴張極不均衡，助長了裙帶關係，並擴大了精英階層與貧困人口之間的階級差距。如果當前趨勢持續，該國面臨將這些缺陷固化為功能失調的基礎狀態的風險，從而嚴重削弱了實現穩定民主轉型的機率。
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