The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The New Congress Can Repair Civil-Military Relations
English Summary
The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
中文摘要
本文論述近期行政部門的權力過度擴張與政治化，已嚴重損害了美國既有的民軍關係規範。為恢復專業標準，新一屆國會必須積極行使其監督權力，不能僅止於批評，而必須要求在國防政策和人事決策上具備透明度。關鍵改革包括：強制執行績效導向的晉升程序、要求對高級軍官的撤職提供書面理由，以及防止軍方被用於黨派鬥爭。這些行動對於鞏固公眾信任，並確保軍方能持續作為非黨派的民事控制工具，至關重要。
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