The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How to Understand the New Age of War
English Summary
The analysis argues that contemporary warfare is marked by a return to great power competition, often fueled by strategic hubris and historical overconfidence. A key failure across modern conflicts is the 'short-war fallacy'—the assumption that overwhelming military force guarantees a quick, decisive victory. This mindset blinds policymakers to the need for sustained resource mobilization and complex political outcomes. Consequently, effective strategy requires linking military objectives with clear, comprehensive political goals, rather than pursuing rapid, decisive regime changes or military victories in isolation.
中文摘要
本分析指出，當代戰爭的特徵是回歸大國競爭，而這種競爭往往受到戰略傲慢與歷史過度自信的驅動。現代衝突中的一個關鍵失敗點是「短期戰爭謬誤」——即假設壓倒性的軍事力量必然能保證快速、決定性的勝利。這種思維模式使政策制定者忽略了持續的資源動員和複雜的政治結果的必要性。因此，有效的戰略必須將軍事目標與清晰、全面的政治目標連結起來，而非孤立地追求快速的政權更迭或軍事勝利。
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