This RAND report develops a scenario-planning framework to analyze the complex future mental health landscape of the UK Armed Forces community through 2045. The analysis identifies key stressors, including the evolving character of conflict, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader societal trends like increased mental health awareness and technological disruption. The core finding is that the sector must move beyond reactive care, requiring proactive, collaborative strategic planning across military, NHS, and third-sector organizations. Ultimately, the report stresses the need for adaptable and resilient support systems to meet the unique and growing mental health needs of personnel and veterans.
RAND
This hub page collects curated ThinkTankWeekly entries for RAND and links readers back to the publisher for the original reports.
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2.Outcome Evaluation of Los Angeles County’s Juvenile Justice Client Assessment Recommendation and Evaluation (CARE) Program (RAND)
The RAND evaluation finds that Los Angeles County's CARE Program provides crucial, holistic support to vulnerable youth in the juvenile justice system, significantly improving their long-term stability and well-being. While the program does not show a statistically significant effect on short-term recidivism, its primary value lies in generating substantial fiscal savings and improving quality-of-life outcomes, such as educational and mental health attainment. To enhance effectiveness and sustainability, the report recommends addressing systemic barriers, including strengthening data systems (e.g., using NLP) and expanding staffing capacity for resource attorneys and social workers. These improvements are critical for maximizing the program's rehabilitative impact and ensuring continued fiscal benefit.
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The RAND assessment concludes that the Department of Defense's Business Enterprise Architecture (DBEA) is struggling to modernize and fulfill its statutory mandate for business process reengineering. Key findings indicate that institutional inertia, overly broad legal specifications, and an incentive structure focused solely on funding information systems are undermining the framework's potential. To achieve true utility, the DoD must pivot its focus from merely funding systems to defining practical, bounded use cases—such as those related to financial audits—to prove the architecture's value. This shift is critical for driving necessary business process improvements and ensuring the DBEA matures into an effective operational tool.
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4.How School Cell Phone Policy Strictness Shapes Student Phone Use: Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel (RAND)
Research indicates that while strict school cell phone policies significantly mitigate student phone checking, they do not eliminate the behavior. The key finding is that student checking frequency correlates strongly with both the restrictiveness of the school's policy and the perceived strictness of its enforcement. Even in highly restrictive environments, students report using evasive tactics and continuing to check their phones. Policymakers should therefore move beyond implementing blanket bans, focusing instead on consistent, visible enforcement and acknowledging student skepticism regarding the overall efficacy of these rules.
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5.How to Forecast China’s Lithography Leap: A Comparative Analysis of the Delphi Method and Crowdsourced Forecasting (RAND)
A RAND report compared the Delphi method (expert workshop) and crowdsourced forecasting to predict China's ability to produce advanced lithography equipment by 2026 and 2030. While both groups identified similar influencing factors, the Delphi group was slightly more accurate, emphasizing the short timeframe for China's technological leap. The study highlights the flexibility of both forecasting methods and recommends ongoing data collection and forecaster training for future research, informing policy decisions regarding U.S. export controls and China's semiconductor ambitions.
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6.Reading Full Books in Secondary English Language Arts Classrooms: Findings from the Spring 2025 American Instructional Resources Survey (RAND)
A RAND survey of secondary English Language Arts teachers reveals that two-thirds plan to assign one to four full books annually, but teachers serving disadvantaged students assign fewer. While most teachers assign more books than their curricula require, those using publisher-developed materials assign fewer. The findings suggest a potential link between assigning full books and increased student engagement with grade-level texts, highlighting the importance of revisiting curriculum design and instructional practices to prioritize full-length works.
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7.China's Science and Technology Strategy in Perspective: Historical Evolution, Political Drivers, and Global Implications (RAND)
This RAND report analyzes China's evolving science and technology (S&T) strategy, highlighting a shift towards centralized, CCP-led innovation emphasizing technological self-reliance and integration with national security goals. Key findings include the strategic importance of S&T for China's power projection, the rise of military-civil fusion, and a move away from reliance on foreign technology. The report underscores the need for policymakers to understand China's approach to S&T, balancing collaboration with safeguards for research integrity and national security.
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8.Force Multipliers in the Americas: Harnessing Security Force Assistance to Bolster Homeland Defense and U.S. Strategic Objectives in Latin America (RAND)
This RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the U.S. Department of War can effectively leverage security force assistance (SFA) activities in Latin America to bolster homeland defense, counter transnational threats, and advance U.S. strategic influence. The report highlights the increasing convergence of threats from state adversaries and non-state actors, emphasizing the need for innovative SFA approaches, particularly utilizing the Army Security Cooperation Group—South and National Guard State Partnership Programs. Ultimately, the report suggests that targeted SFA can be a cost-effective tool for addressing regional challenges and countering Chinese influence.
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9.Breaking Barriers Rapid Rehousing Program for Justice-Involved Individuals in Los Angeles County: Local Evaluation Report (RAND)
The evaluation of the Breaking Barriers program found that its robust, individualized supportive services and strong inter-agency collaboration significantly improve housing stability for justice-involved individuals, with retention rates exceeding 80% after one year. While the program successfully met most operational goals, the report emphasizes that progress is severely limited by persistent external systemic barriers, including high housing costs, lack of affordable units, and job discrimination. Policy recommendations stress that while continued flexible case management is vital, long-term success requires systemic interventions, such as expanding permanent supportive housing and addressing structural economic barriers to ensure sustained reentry outcomes.
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10.Gaps in State Workforce Priorities, Needs, and Training Programs: Findings from a National Scan of WIOA Plans and Eligible Training Provider Lists (RAND)
This RAND analysis reveals significant misalignment between state workforce development plans (WIOA) and actual labor market needs, suggesting that current training investments are inefficient. Key findings show that states often define 'credentials of value' imprecisely and that eligible training providers frequently fail to offer programs for the most critical, in-demand, and high-quality occupations. Furthermore, the report notes that training program completers fall short of filling job openings for the majority of targeted occupations. Policymakers must mandate stronger cross-agency coordination between workforce planning, postsecondary education, and industry to ensure that WIOA funding effectively targets genuine economic opportunities and addresses labor shortages.
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The RAND report finds that Indiana possesses numerous flexible policy options for addressing cannabis, ranging from simple decriminalization to full adult-use legalization, and is not restricted to models used by neighboring states. Key evidence suggests that while current enforcement costs are substantial, legalizing the market could generate significant state tax revenue (estimated around $180 million annually under certain scenarios). For policy strategy, the report recommends that Indiana consider a gradual and flexible approach—such as initially limiting product types or incorporating sunset provisions—to manage the transition and minimize regulatory risk.
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12.Health Care Access and Quality for New York Veterans Provided by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Community Care: Volume II, Methods and Supporting Data (RAND)
This RAND report provides a comprehensive data analysis of health care access and quality for New York veterans, focusing on the increasing reliance on the private sector through the Community Care program. Key evidence includes detailed analyses of geographic access (drive times) and wait times for specialized services like oncology and neurology, alongside systematic reviews of care quality. The findings argue that expanding eligibility for Community Care is a crucial policy mechanism to improve the timeliness and overall quality of care for the veteran population. Policymakers should use this data to strategically adjust VA guidelines, ensuring that the transition to private care maintains high standards of accessibility and quality.
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Indiana maintains strict cannabis laws despite significant public support for legalization and a large, growing market estimated at $1.8 billion annually. The primary policy challenge is the existence of a gap between state law and the proliferation of largely unregulated, intoxicating hemp products sold in local retail outlets. Furthermore, the state's potential path to legalization differs significantly from most existing academic research, which is based on states that previously legalized medical cannabis. Policymakers must navigate this complex regulatory environment, balancing public demand, federal legislative uncertainty, and the need to mitigate public health risks associated with unregulated sales.
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14.Health Care Access and Quality for New York Veterans Provided by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Community Care: Volume I, Understanding the Impact of Proposed Policy Changes (RAND)
This RAND analysis examines the impact of proposed policy changes that would expand Community Care eligibility for New York veterans, who often face limited geographic access to VA facilities. While expanding eligibility could improve veterans' geographic access to care, the report finds that the implications for care quality and timeliness are mixed or unclear, noting that VA facilities generally maintain higher outpatient quality standards than private providers. The authors conclude that while policy changes may improve access, the current lack of comprehensive, publicly available data on wait times and expenditures prevents a definitive assessment of the overall impact. Therefore, the report strongly recommends that the VA and New York State release detailed data to enable accurate policy modeling and decision-making.
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15.Evaluating Large Language Models' Abilities to Process and Understand Technical Policy Reports (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of a specialized benchmark to accurately evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) on complex, technical policy reports. The authors found that standard LLMs perform poorly (48-54% accuracy) on nuanced policy claims, demonstrating that out-of-the-box solutions are insufficient for high-stakes decision support. To improve reliability, the report recommends moving beyond binary truth assessments, utilizing multi-category truthfulness metrics to capture partial inaccuracies and inferred reasoning. Strategically, while LLMs hold promise for synthesizing policy findings and identifying evidence gaps, their deployment requires significant domain-specific fine-tuning and rigorous testing before they can be trusted by public decision-makers.
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This RAND report analyzes the repeal of the Survivor Benefit Plan (SBP) Optional Child Annuity, a provision that previously allowed payments to dependent children without an offset. While the repeal created uncertainty for child beneficiaries, the analysis concludes that the resulting financial hardship and administrative issues are currently relatively small in scale. Key evidence shows that thousands of accounts are facing eligibility verification issues following the repeal. Therefore, the authors recommend improving administrative guidance for beneficiaries seeking payment restoration rather than advocating for major legislative changes to the SBP.
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17.Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt: Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency (RAND)
This RAND report identifies agricultural security in the U.S. Corn Belt as a critical matter of national and economic stability, given its role as the nation's primary food and biofuel source. The region faces complex, interacting threats, including biological pathogens, extreme climate variability, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the risk of agroterrorism. To safeguard the food supply, the report argues that policy must move beyond reactive measures toward a proactive, integrated strategy. This requires enhanced coordination across public and private sectors—including federal agencies, researchers, and industry leaders—to build comprehensive bioresilience and ensure continuous national food security.
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18.Simpler Is Better for Autograders: Toward Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks (RAND)
This RAND report addresses the bottleneck of evaluating large language models (LLMs) in open-ended tasks, which is typically constrained by the high cost and slow speed of expert human grading. The analysis tested five autograding methods and found that the simple 'single rubric' approach consistently outperformed complex techniques like metaprompting or prompt optimization. This method achieves a statistically significant reduction in error while matching or exceeding the accuracy of nonexpert human graders, but at a fraction of the time and cost. Policymakers should adopt single-rubric autograders as the default, scalable solution to enable cost-effective and reliable LLM evaluation across diverse domains.
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The RAND evaluation concludes that depot buprenorphine (DB) provision has expanded markedly in England following new grant funding, exhibiting a rapid, S-shaped uptake curve. Key evidence shows a sharp increase in provision, with recipients often being younger women with lower disability rates compared to other opioid substitution treatment groups. The report advises policymakers that while DB offers benefits like improved adherence, its high cost and limited real-world evidence base require careful management. Therefore, the findings are intended to guide the Department of Health and Social Care in optimizing the provision of this long-acting injectable treatment to maximize recovery outcomes and ensure cost-effectiveness.
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20.Integrated care for people who use alcohol and/or other drugs: A case study analysis of the current landscape in England (RAND)
The analysis reveals that while integrated care for substance use and co-occurring mental/physical health issues is critical, service provision across England remains highly fragmented. Key evidence shows that the limited specificity of supplementary funding (SSMTRG) and the sheer scale of the challenge contribute to substantial variation in care quality across local areas. Policymakers must therefore focus on systemic improvements, moving beyond localized funding mechanisms to mandate robust collaboration between specialized drug services and broader Integrated Care Systems (ICSs). This suggests a strategic need for national guidelines and coordinated investment to ensure comprehensive, gap-free patient support.
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21.The barriers and facilitators to supporting, commissioning and working with Lived Experience Recovery Organisations in systems of care in England (RAND)
The report argues that Lived Experience Recovery Organisations (LEROs) are vital components of recovery-oriented systems of care, but their integration is hampered by systemic barriers, primarily a lack of consistent definition among stakeholders. Key evidence shows that the sustainability and autonomy of LEROs are highly dependent on funding models; stable, direct commissioning is crucial, whereas fragmented or short-term grants lead to instability and limited visibility. For policy, the findings imply that authorities must standardize LERO definitions and shift away from fragmented funding. Strategic commissioning must prioritize direct, ring-fenced allocations to ensure LEROs maintain autonomy and consistent engagement within the local care system.
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This methods report details the rigorous evaluation framework for the UK's Drug Strategy Investment in Treatment and Recovery (D-SITAR). The study employs a comprehensive mixed-methods approach, integrating administrative data, local authority records, and extensive input from public and expert advisory groups across six priority areas. By utilizing Implementation Research Logic Models, the evaluation aims to rigorously assess the effectiveness and implementation of major public health interventions, such as workforce transformation and depot buprenorphine provision. The resulting evidence will be critical for the Department of Health and Social Care to refine, optimize, and guide future national drug treatment policies and resource allocation in England.
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The RAND evaluation found that the Housing Support Grant (HSG) successfully addressed housing insecurity for individuals with substance use issues by implementing an intensive, person-centered, and holistic approach. Key evidence shows that the grant filled critical gaps in local service provision, with stakeholders praising its adaptability and flexibility to meet diverse local and individual needs. The report concludes that such locally tailored, flexible funding models are effective strategies for improving public health outcomes in addiction and recovery services. Policymakers should consider adopting similar mechanisms to stabilize housing and improve access to treatment.
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24.Evaluation of the Networks for School Improvement Initiative—How Network Hubs Develop and Support Continuous Improvement Networks: Data Sources and Methodology (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates how structured network hubs facilitate continuous improvement within school systems, arguing that these networks are critical for improving student outcomes, particularly for marginalized populations. The research analyzes multiple case studies, finding that network success is strongly correlated with the breadth of coaching support and the central, active role of the network hub. Policymatically, the findings suggest that educational intermediaries and school districts should strategically invest in and structure these continuous improvement networks. This approach provides a scalable model for improving educational quality and ensuring sustained progress beyond initial grant funding.
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25.Evaluation of the Networks for School Improvement Initiative—How Network Hubs Develop and Support Continuous Improvement Networks: Final Report (RAND)
This RAND final report evaluates the Gates Foundation's Networks for School Improvement initiative and argues that well-supported network hubs can improve school performance by sustaining continuous improvement practices across districts and schools. Drawing on multi-year evidence from 25 school networks, the study finds that hub quality, coaching breadth, data use, and strong network cohesion are closely associated with better perceived benefits and greater long-term sustainability. The report implies that education policymakers and philanthropic funders should invest not only in local school interventions but also in intermediary organizations that coordinate coaching, shared learning, and improvement routines. In strategic terms, durable school improvement requires national and district-level support for network infrastructure rather than one-off grant programs alone.
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26.Implementation of the Treatment and Recovery Portfolio of the 'From Harm to Hope' drug strategy in England: Results from a process evaluation (RAND)
This RAND process evaluation assesses the implementation of the 'From Harm to Hope' Treatment and Recovery Portfolio in England, analyzing the centralized distribution of £780 million in funding to local authorities. The study uses a mixed-methods approach to determine if the national strategy was executed as intended, focusing on the mechanisms by which central government guidance influenced local service delivery. Key findings identify specific pathways that are effective and highlight structural challenges in the current funding and governance model. The report provides critical policy recommendations aimed at improving the central delivery structure to optimize the national drug strategy and enhance local treatment outcomes.
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27.Factors that influence employees' perceptions and experiences of working within the treatment and recovery sector in England (RAND)
This RAND evaluation assesses the implementation of England's major workforce transformation program for drug and alcohol treatment and recovery. The study argues that employee perceptions and job sustainability are critically influenced by a combination of contextual resources and staff attitudes, analyzed through the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. Key findings highlight that simply increasing funding is insufficient; true sustainability requires systemic improvements in service delivery. Policymakers must therefore prioritize developing clear career pathways, improving supervision quality, and managing caseloads to stabilize the workforce and ensure consistent, high-quality care.
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28.Fiscal Year 2025 Assessment of the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (RAND)
This RAND assessment evaluates the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (AcqDemo), a long-standing DoD initiative designed to manage the civilian workforce supporting the Department of Defense's acquisition mission. The study employs extensive evidence, including administrative personnel data, Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS) extracts, grievance data, and 85 stakeholder interviews. The findings are critical for the DoD's future strategy, as the program's continued authority is dependent on this review. Ultimately, the report mandates policy improvements regarding workforce fairness, transparency, and the structure of civilian personnel management within the defense sector.
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The RAND report finds that access to Out-of-School Time (OST) opportunities in Allegheny County is highly uneven, with many high-need neighborhoods lacking sufficient programming per child. Analysis of funding reveals that while some state support has increased, the decline of major federal funding streams necessitates continued local and state investment. Policymakers and funders should utilize mapping tools to target resources in underserved communities and address specific barriers, such as transportation, language support for immigrants, and programming for older students. Strategic intervention requires tailored investments to ensure equitable access and maintain community stability.
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30.Infinite Potential—Insights from the Viral Uplift Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises (RAND)
RAND's "Infinite Potential" exercises, simulating a National Security Council response to an AI-enabled biological crisis, revealed that containing advanced AI capabilities is likely infeasible. Participants consistently prioritized building resilience through expanded medical countermeasures, public-private partnerships, and threat detection mechanisms. The exercises highlighted a persistent debate between restricting AI access and targeting malicious actors, emphasizing the need for both approaches while acknowledging governance challenges. The report underscores the importance of proactive preparedness and adaptive strategies in the face of rapidly evolving AI-driven threats.
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31.Developing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures of Timely Experience of Diagnosis (PROMOTE-Dx) for Cancer: Survey and Quality Measure Development Report (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMOTE-Dx) to assess the timeliness of cancer diagnosis. Researchers conducted surveys and cognitive interviews with cancer patients and experts to identify factors contributing to diagnostic delays across three intervals: self-appraisal, help-seeking, and the diagnostic process itself. The resulting measures aim to complement existing data sources and provide insights into patient experiences, potentially informing quality improvement initiatives and highlighting the importance of addressing both patient and system-level factors that impact timely diagnosis. The study emphasizes the need to consider pre-health system delays (patient knowledge, fear) alongside health system delays (appointment availability, insurance coverage).
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A RAND report assesses the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe program's progress in 2024-2025, finding increased application, enrollment, and graduation rates. Key observations include a trend toward younger cadets, a high rate of education placements among graduates, and a disconnect between Job ChalleNGe training and actual employment fields. The report highlights the positive reception of a new mentoring pilot program but notes data privacy concerns. Recommendations focus on tracking cadet ages, supporting mentoring program expansion, understanding employment patterns, and ensuring data security.
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33.Considering U.S. Air Force Culture When Modifying Career Development Pathways for Longer Assignments (RAND)
This RAND report examines the U.S. Air Force's response to Department of Defense directives to reduce permanent change of station moves and modify career development pathways. It finds that deeply ingrained cultural expectations around frequent moves hindering the adoption of longer assignments, as these moves have historically been linked to career progression. The report recommends a deliberate approach to policy changes, incorporating cultural considerations and change management strategies to ensure successful implementation and address resistance within the Air Force workforce.
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34.A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence (RAND)
This RAND report assesses the U.S. Air Force's efforts to establish a Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence and identifies capability gaps hindering its effectiveness. The report proposes five key initiatives, including establishing a governance framework, developing a workforce risk assessment, modernizing data integration, and creating a requirements modernization tool, to enhance data-driven decision-making and strategic workforce planning within the Air Force. Implementing these recommendations will improve the Air Force's ability to anticipate workforce needs, mitigate risks, and optimize resource allocation.
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35.Modifying Air Force Intelligence Career Development in Response to Targeted Permanent Change of Station Reductions (RAND)
A RAND report examines the impact of reduced permanent change of station (PCS) moves on Air Force intelligence officer and enlisted career development. The study found that frequent PCS moves are culturally ingrained for officer advancement and that enlisted development lacks robust management systems. To adapt to longer assignments, the report recommends tailoring career pathways, leveraging flexible practices, and reassessing assignment lengths, ultimately aiming to balance fiscal constraints with developmental needs and maintain both expertise and leadership capacity.
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36.Air Force Assignment Durations: Modeling Policy Changes and Their Effects on Cost, Readiness, and Retention (RAND)
A RAND study investigated policy options for the U.S. Air Force to reduce frequent permanent change of station (PCS) moves, driven by fiscal pressures and Department of War guidance. The analysis found that extending assignment durations, particularly overseas tours and enforcing longer tour lengths within the continental United States, could yield significant cost savings ($186-$240 million annually) while balancing readiness and retention. Implementation faces cultural resistance and requires a comprehensive approach including policy extensions, refined existing policies, targeted population strategies, and focusing on stability, alongside analytical tools and stakeholder engagement.
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RAND finds that firearm violence constitutes a community-wide shock that disproportionately harms Black communities, leading to cascading negative outcomes. The report establishes strong links between this violence and severe declines in physical and mental health, impaired educational attainment, and broader economic instability. Consequently, the authors argue that reducing firearm violence must be treated not merely as a public safety issue, but as a critical public health, educational, and economic imperative. Policy efforts must therefore focus on sustained investment in evidence-based, community-level intervention programs to improve long-term social welfare.
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State education agency leaders value federal technical assistance that provides specialized expertise in instruction, evidence-based practices, and research capacity—particularly important for smaller states with limited staff. Effective TA requires long-term partnerships with providers deeply familiar with state context, timely compliance guidance with authoritative interpretation, and structured cross-state networking to help isolated administrators tackle shared challenges. Leaders highlight key pain points: slow federal approval processes, bureaucratic burdens, and inflexible contracting that limits responsiveness to evolving state priorities. The report recommends federal TA prioritize a coordinated "concierge" approach, proactive support for high-impact practices, reduced administrative overhead, and sustained funding for cross-state collaboration. Federal TA should function as thought partnership rather than compliance-focused enforcement, balancing centralized coordination benefits with greater state voice in selecting providers.
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39.Standards-Aligned Instructional Materials Use and Science Practices in K–12 Schools: Findings from the Spring 2025 American Instructional Resources Survey (RAND)
K-12 science teachers are significantly less likely to use standards-aligned instructional materials (10-24% adoption) compared to ELA and math teachers (49-66%), driven by a critical shortage of quality-rated science curricula and greater teacher autonomy in material selection. The supply gap is stark: only 2-5 green-rated science materials are available per grade level versus 26-35 for ELA/math, forcing many teachers to rely on self-created or unvetted materials. While science teachers using standards-aligned materials report greater student engagement in recommended science and engineering practices, they also perceive these materials as too challenging and routinely modify them, potentially reducing implementation fidelity. Expanding the supply of rated science curricula, establishing district-level guidance on material adoption, and providing professional development on standards-aligned instruction could address these systemic gaps and improve science achievement nationally.
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The report argues that the U.S. Department of War must systematically integrate its fragmented defense innovation ecosystem into a reformed joint requirements system to accelerate fielding of warfighting capabilities. Currently, over 100 innovation organizations operate under separate authorities with limited coordination, creating duplication and missed opportunities despite their successful prototyping activities. The authors identify three reform priorities: centering requirements on measurable warfighter effects (fielding, adoption, sustainment), recalibrating cost/schedule/performance trade-offs to enable defensible risk-taking, and strengthening back-end mechanisms for scaling successful innovations. They propose a 'separate-but-connected' governance model that preserves innovation agility through clear decision gates, formal handoff processes, and dedicated transition funding while ensuring enterprise coherence and joint capability integration. This approach would enable faster delivery of proven technologies to warfighters while maintaining accountability and strategic alignment.
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41.Internet Cutoff Switches as a Local Emergency Response for Damaging Artificial Intelligence Incidents (RAND)
This RAND report examines internet cutoff switches as emergency containment tools for damaging AI incidents in data centers. The analysis reveals a critical market failure: without liability for external damages, data center operators would rationally delay activating cutoffs to preserve revenue, even as AI escape risk grows exponentially. The authors conclude that three policy mechanisms are essential: assigning operators liability for catastrophic external damages, ensuring they understand cutoff use provides liability protection, and potentially compensating lost revenue to align private profit incentives with public risk management.
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42.Achieving Combat Sortie Generation Proficiency in the Air Force: An Examination of Goals, Gaps, Barriers, and Solutions (RAND)
RAND research identifies critical gaps in U.S. Air Force combat sortie generation proficiency—the ability to rapidly recover, refuel, rearm, and launch aircraft under combat conditions. Through expert interviews, literature review, and proficiency modeling, the authors find that current training practices vary inconsistently across units and fall far short of what Agile Combat Employment doctrine demands, particularly for rapid response to high-threat missile scenarios. Key barriers include lack of standardized training requirements, insufficient training frequency (units practicing hot integrated combat turns semi-annually when monthly or more is needed), resource constraints, personnel shortages, and organizational friction between operations and maintenance. The report recommends establishing formal CSG training requirements (similar to the Ready Aircrew Program), implementing standardized proficiency metrics, improving operational-maintenance coordination to resolve conflicts with flying hour programs, and addressing long-term personnel experience imbalances. Without systematic intervention, the Air Force will struggle to generate combat power at the speed and scale required for peer conflict.
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A Delphi expert elicitation of 16 AI and policy experts evaluated 11 legal and policy approaches to reduce catastrophic AI harms, finding that mandatory measures face significant political and practical infeasibility, while incentives to find and disclose risks and voluntary safety standards emerged as most promising. Experts rated nearly all categories as desirable but questioned feasibility in the current U.S. political environment, with effectiveness varying substantially by actor type—highest for AI developers (3.3 average), lower for nonmalicious users (3.0), and lowest for malicious users (2.3). The most viable approaches require no federal government involvement and can be implemented through industry commitments and state-level action, including structured bug bounty programs, legal safe harbors for researchers, and coordinated vulnerability disclosure processes. Rather than waiting for comprehensive federal legislation, policymakers should pursue incremental, near-term measures that foster transparency through developer incentives and establish voluntary standards as scaffolding for future mandatory requirements. The analysis reflects growing skepticism about traditional regulatory approaches in the AI domain, with experts increasingly viewing private-sector and state-level action as more feasible pathways for near-term risk mitigation.
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This technical documentation describes the American School District Panel's (ASDP) fall 2025 methodology refresh, expanding the survey frame from pre-selected districts to all 12,274 U.S. public school districts, with 345 responding (2.8% response rate). The weighting process was revised to account for nonresponse bias rather than selection probability, using district enrollment, geographic, demographic, and poverty data from federal sources to create nationally representative weights. These methodological improvements ensure that the ASDP—a biannual survey of K-12 school district leaders—produces reliable insights into district-level education policy priorities and challenges.
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45.Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications (RAND)
The report synthesizes diverse AGI forecasting methodologies and finds that multiple independent approaches—expert surveys, prediction markets, and compute-centric models—show convergent evidence toward earlier AGI timelines, with many clustering in the 2030s, driven by rapid scaling of compute resources and capital investment. However, forecasting infrastructure remains immature with significant limitations: benchmarks saturate quickly, influential models lack independent validation, and reasonable experts fundamentally disagree about whether scaling existing architectures will suffice, how rapidly capabilities will diffuse economically, and whether AI-driven research acceleration will compress timelines. The report identifies three core empirical cruxes—capability sufficiency, diffusion speed, and takeoff dynamics—that generate distinct expert positions, with disagreement persisting despite shared information. Rather than betting on specific timelines, decisionmakers should pursue scenario-robust strategies emphasizing technical expertise, evaluation infrastructure, and monitoring systems while keying different policy responses to observable triggers across domains. Strengthening forecasting through independent model validation, continuous capability measurement, and real-time monitoring of AI's role in research advancement would better position policymakers to manage uncertainty across the range of plausible futures.
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46.
The U.S. Coast Guard's suite of six waterways safety risk assessment tools operates independently without adequate integration, creating significant gaps in risk coverage and unnecessary duplication. Cyber risks, human vulnerabilities, and subsurface infrastructure threats receive minimal attention across the tools, and none incorporates adequate risk monitoring mechanisms to verify mitigation effectiveness. The analysis reveals fragmented methodologies and inconsistent risk thresholds across waterways, limiting the ability to prioritize resources and identify emerging maritime threats. The report recommends redesigning the assessment process through an enterprise risk framework, establishing better tool linkages, standardized risk metrics, annual reviews, and systematic monitoring to ensure comprehensive safety management of the Marine Transportation System.
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47.
RAND Europe forecasts that the UK Armed Forces community will undergo significant demographic shifts through 2045, with veteran numbers declining from 1.73 million (2025) to 1.06 million due to aging WWII and National Service generations, while the regular force remains stable at approximately 130,000-135,000 personnel. Using a sophisticated 'stocks-and-flows' population projection methodology applied to Ministry of Defence and Census data, the analysis demonstrates that despite smaller overall size, the community will become increasingly gender and ethnically diverse, with a higher proportion of working-age veterans requiring different support services. These findings carry important implications for defense policy and social support provision, requiring service providers to rebalance resources from age-related care toward employment, childcare, and mental health services while ensuring accessibility for a more diverse and intergenerational population.
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48.Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative (RAND)
Pima County's Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative is a permanent supportive housing program targeting justice-involved adults experiencing homelessness and behavioral health challenges. The evaluation found that among 86 program participants with complete data, criminal justice involvement fell 35% after enrollment, total criminal justice events declined 58%, and average costs per participant decreased 46% ($10,450 to $5,657). However, substantial implementation challenges limit the program's reach: only 43 of 126 participants enrolled during the evaluation period were placed in permanent supportive housing due to limited affordable housing and voucher freezes that extended wait times from 5 to 9 months. The findings suggest permanent supportive housing shows promise for breaking cycles of incarceration and homelessness, but policymakers must address systemic barriers through improved data integration, stronger evaluation methods, and expanded housing resources to maximize impact and reach the significant unmet demand.
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49.
This RAND report provides the first comprehensive estimate of the UK Armed Forces bereaved community—over 100,000 people annually as of 2025—including partners, children, and service personnel/veterans who have lost family members. Using Ministry of Defence mortality data and Bayesian forecasting methods, the study estimates that partners bereaved of veterans comprise the largest group (53,100 annually), while the overall bereaved population will decline by 2045 due to aging demographics. The research highlights critical data gaps and emphasizes that a major conflict would substantially increase bereaved family members in younger age groups, fundamentally altering support needs. Support providers must prepare for demographic shifts and recognize the bereaved as a vital but historically overlooked part of the Armed Forces community requiring targeted long-term services.
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50.
A RAND study, based on expert consensus, outlines an 'ideal' integrated policy framework for early cancer care. Developed through a three-phase Expert Consensus Panel and Validation Workshops involving global cancer policy experts, the framework identifies key components such as Public Education, Primary Care Capacity, and Data Infrastructure as highly important. The research emphasizes that advancing early cancer care requires a unified, system-wide approach built on collaboration, equity, and sustained investment, moving beyond isolated interventions. Policymakers should integrate education, detection, diagnosis, treatment, and system strengthening, adapting to national and local contexts for long-term sustainability and equitable patient outcomes.
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51.More Students Use AI for Homework, and More Believe It Harms Critical Thinking: Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel (RAND)
The RAND American Youth Panel reveals a notable increase in students using AI for homework, rising from 48% in May 2025 to 62% in December 2025. This surge is accompanied by growing concern, with 67% of students believing AI harms critical thinking skills by late 2025. Although students widely use chatbots for tasks like brainstorming and explanations, they perceive significant ambiguity in school policies regarding AI, leading to increased worry about being accused of cheating, especially among older students. The report emphasizes the need for schools to engage students in discussions about AI's impact and establish clear, consistent guidelines for its appropriate use.
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52.
The report introduces a unified typology of 20 economic shocks across five domains to help analysts understand and anticipate macroeconomic recessions as complex, compound events. By examining the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors demonstrate how the interaction of exogenous disturbances and endogenous policy responses determines the recovery's trajectory. This analytical framework moves beyond traditional siloed approaches, providing a structured method for modeling the cascading effects of financial, environmental, and demand-side disruptions. Consequently, it serves as a critical resource for policymakers to improve real-time situational awareness and calibrate stabilization efforts more effectively during multi-faceted crises.
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53.The Defense Contract Management Agency's Resource Workload Model Ecosystem: A Basis for Enhanced Warfighter Support (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Defense Contract Management Agency’s (DCMA) Integrated Resource Workload Model (IRWM), concluding that while it is a robust tool for aggregate manpower planning, it requires significant refinements to better reflect operational realities. Based on over 225 interviews and an in-depth review of the model's structure, researchers identified discrepancies between modeled estimates and actual field activities, often stemming from insufficient documentation, unmodeled supervisory tasks, and user-unfriendly data entry systems. To maximize the model's utility, the report recommends formalizing standard operating procedures, improving internal communication to build trust, and leveraging the modeling ecosystem for strategic scenario planning regarding budget and mission shifts.
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54.Improving Diffusion of Clinical Care Innovations in Public Health Emergencies: 5 Things Influential Emergency Department Clinicians on Digital Media Can Do (RAND)
This RAND report outlines five strategic actions for influential emergency department clinicians on digital media to enhance the rapid and effective diffusion of clinical care innovations during public health emergencies. Drawing on a four-year study of the COVID-19 pandemic—including focus groups, interviews, and surveys of over 1,600 healthcare professionals—the researchers emphasize the necessity of transparency, collaborative partnerships with medical societies, and multimedia "how-to" content. Implementing these strategies aims to mitigate the uneven adoption of medical advancements and ensure a more synchronized, evidence-based healthcare response to future crises.
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55.Improving Diffusion of Clinical Care Innovations in Public Health Emergencies: 6 Things Frontline Emergency Department Clinicians Can Do (RAND)
Frontline emergency department (ED) clinicians can play a pivotal role in accelerating the adoption of clinical innovations and retiring ineffective practices during public health emergencies by engaging in proactive networking and evidence-sharing. This RAND study, based on a four-year analysis of COVID-19 responses including surveys of over 1,600 healthcare professionals, identifies six specific strategies across pre-emergency and active-emergency phases. To bolster future pandemic resilience, health systems and policymakers must support clinician-led initiatives such as interprofessional information networks and bedside evidence-informed decision-making tools to ensure more agile and equitable care delivery.
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56.Improving Diffusion of Clinical Care Innovations in Public Health Emergencies: 5 Things Emergency Department and Health System Leaders Can Do (RAND)
This RAND report identifies five key strategies for health system and emergency department leaders to accelerate the adoption of clinical care innovations during public health emergencies. Drawing on focus groups and a nationwide survey of over 1,600 clinicians, the study found that innovation diffusion was often uneven and outpaced by the COVID-19 pandemic’s spread. Strategic recommendations include establishing pre-emergency communication networks, creating dedicated teams for 'living' evidence-based guidance, and utilizing real-time dashboards to monitor operating conditions. These actions aim to bridge the gap between emerging evidence and frontline practice, ensuring that health systems can rapidly implement effective treatments while discontinuing harmful ones during future crises.
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57.Assessing the Practical Feasibility of the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse Quantum Algorithm for Calculating Radar Cross Sections (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse (CJS) quantum algorithm for calculating radar cross sections (RCS), finding that while it offers a theoretical exponential speedup over classical methods, it faces massive practical implementation hurdles. Quantitative estimates indicate that the computational resources required for even simple 2D models would currently result in runtimes exceeding the age of the universe on projected hardware, largely due to bottlenecks in Hamiltonian simulation and the overhead of quantum oracles. Consequently, quantum-driven breakthroughs in stealth aircraft design are unlikely in the near term, though policymakers should monitor advancements in unrelated fields like drug discovery that could eventually improve the underlying quantum subroutines.
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58.
A RAND survey of over 10,000 U.S. adults reveals that while broad support for legalizing psychedelics remains low compared to cannabis, there is significant public backing for their use in controlled medical and therapeutic settings. The study found that 23% support legal psilocybin use, with nearly half of respondents endorsing supervised administration at medical facilities to address specific health conditions. These findings suggest that public opinion is currently more aligned with medicalized models rather than open retail markets or personal cultivation. For policymakers, this indicates that legislative efforts focusing on supervised therapeutic access are likely to receive more public support than broader legalization frameworks.
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59.Decisive Economic Advantage: Modeling the Transition from Temporary First-Mover Leads to Economic Dominance in Artificial General Intelligence (RAND)
This RAND report introduces the concept of Decisive Economic Advantage (DEA), a state where early leads in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) become permanent dominance through self-reinforcing feedback loops between technological capability, economic deployment, and capital reinvestment. Using a dynamic economic model and Monte Carlo simulations, the author identifies two primary pathways to dominance: 'frontier-driven' intelligence explosions and 'accumulation-driven' reinvestment moats that can occur even without recursive self-improvement. The findings suggest that strategic intervention leverage decays rapidly as asymmetries widen, implying that policymakers must prioritize early detection of regime shifts and tailor responses—such as export controls or ecosystem containment—to the specific growth mechanism involved.
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60.Managing Systemic Supply Chain Risk to the U.S. Economy from Trade Concentration and Geopolitical Conflict: The Roles of Insurance and Other Hedging Strategies (RAND)
This RAND report argues that systemic supply chain risks from geopolitical conflict are significant and underappreciated, particularly in sectors like nonferrous metals and electrical components sourced from countries such as Brazil and India. The authors find that private insurance is ill-suited for managing these correlated, large-scale risks, while government interventions often lack necessary market-sensing mechanisms to prevent unsustainable private practices. To enhance resilience, the report recommends that the U.S. government track conflict-dependency overlaps and that industries adopt 'Til Needed' hedging options—private contracts for surge capacity—to bridge the gap between market incentives and national economic security.
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61.Export Controls on Artificial Intelligence and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems: Interagency Challenges (RAND)
This RAND report argues that current U.S. export controls for AI and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) are lagging behind rapid technological advancements and require a more agile, data-centric interagency approach. The study finds that the U.S. no longer maintains a technological monopoly, meaning overly restrictive controls risk hollowing out the domestic industrial base and driving global partners toward Chinese alternatives. Consequently, the authors recommend shifting regulatory focus toward specialized military training data rather than ubiquitous hardware, while calling for increased funding and technical expertise for the Bureau of Industry and Security.
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62.
This RAND report evaluates the 2023 overhaul of the U.S. Air Force’s performance evaluation systems, finding that while the transition to narrative formats and major performance areas has improved clarity, it has created new challenges for promotion boards in differentiating between top performers. Based on surveys of over 10,000 airmen and interviews with talent management stakeholders, the study identifies widespread confusion regarding new stratification policies and significant technical frustrations with the 'myEval 2.0' interface. The report recommends that the Air Force provide more robust writing guidance and explore ways to reintegrate quantitative indicators to ensure the system effectively supports long-term talent management and career development. Ultimately, successful refinement of these processes is critical for maintaining a meritocratic promotion system and aligning personnel development with core organizational values.
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63.Developing a Risk-Scoring Tool for Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Biological Design: A Method to Assess the Risks of Using Artificial Intelligence to Modify Select Viral Capabilities (RAND)
RAND developed a dual-axis risk-scoring tool to evaluate the biosecurity threats posed by AI-enabled biological design, focusing on five critical viral functions such as host range and transmission dynamics. The framework assesses both the potential severity of biological modifications and the technical capability required by actors, specifically measuring the 'uplift' that advancing AI provides to lower-skilled individuals. Researchers concluded that as AI tools become more accessible, the technical barriers to engineering dangerous pathogens will continue to decrease, necessitating new oversight mechanisms. Consequently, the report proposes using this scoring system as a foundation for establishing regulatory redlines and federal funding requirements to manage AI-driven biological risks without stifling innovation.
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64.
This RAND report argues that the U.S. worker protection system remains fundamentally tied to traditional employer-employee relationships, creating significant security gaps for the 10-20% of the workforce engaged in nonstandard work like gig employment and independent contracting. Using a taxonomy of risks—unfair practices, work-related injuries, and life costs—the authors demonstrate how current classification rules systematically exclude freelancers from essential social insurance and employer-provided benefits. To address these inequities, the study recommends decoupling protections from specific employers through portable benefit systems and universal coverage mandates. Such reforms are increasingly critical as technological shifts and AI further disrupt traditional labor models and worker-firm dependencies.
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65.Manpower Analysis to Improve the Functional Alignment and Organizational Structure of Space Training and Readiness Command Headquarters (RAND)
A RAND analysis finds that the U.S. Space Force’s STARCOM headquarters is significantly understaffed, requiring nearly double its current personnel to effectively manage its workload and mission priorities. The study identifies core organizational friction stemming from a lack of unity of effort, structural tensions between lean design and command needs, and resource strain caused by simultaneous start-up and steady-state functions. Researchers recommend implementing a new staffing optimization model (STAR-SOM) and realigning leadership under senior authorities to better synchronize guardian development and combat credibility missions. These findings imply that STARCOM must pursue both a quantitative manpower increase and a qualitative structural reorganization to maintain readiness for near-peer space competition.
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66.
This report analyzes the evolving demographics and welfare needs of the Royal Navy and Royal Marines (RN&RM) community, projecting a stable Regular force of approximately 33,000 through 2040 despite a more volatile strategic environment. It finds that increasing operational tempo and unpredictable deployments are placing significant strain on families, evidenced by high levels of partner loneliness and chronic childcare accessibility issues. The study suggests that the Naval welfare sector must modernize its support by adopting holistic, 'whole force' approaches that mitigate mental health stigma and address structural barriers to partner employment to ensure long-term recruitment and retention.
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67.
This report describes eight frontier large language model (LLM) agents on their ability to design DNA segments, interact with a benchtop DNA synthesizer, and generate laboratory protocols. These are dual-use tasks, explored as potential technical bottlenecks to a malicious actor building a viral pathogen that could be weaponized. Performance varied among the models, but all tested LLMs designed biologically coherent DNA segments in some attempts.
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68.Analysis of West Virginia’s State School Aid Funding Formula: Recommendations to Enhance Adequacy, Fairness, and Efficiency of State Funding for Education (RAND)
This report, prepared for the West Virginia House of Delegates, is intended to provide an independent, holistic assessment of the state’s school aid funding formula and to identify opportunities for improvements in the state’s funding strategy. The authors use a combination of prior research on funding issues, benchmarks and examples from funding formulas nationwide, and analysis of state and national data sets to inform their recommendations.