The RAND report concludes that advanced AI agents have dramatically lowered the barrier to entry for offensive cyber operations, making complex hacking tasks accessible even to novices without specialized expertise. Evidence from testing shows that modern models can solve challenging Capture-the-Flag (CTF) scenarios quickly and cheaply using only straightforward prompting, a significant leap compared to previous findings with 2025 AI tools. This rapid democratization of powerful offensive capabilities fundamentally alters the threat landscape by making sophisticated cyberattacks widely available. Policymakers must therefore overhaul defensive strategies and intelligence assessments, as current evaluation methods are insufficient to gauge the true scope of the emerging AI-driven cyber risk.
RAND
This hub page collects curated ThinkTankWeekly entries for RAND and links readers back to the publisher for the original reports.
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1.AI agents put offensive cyber within reach of novices: Comparing the performance of AI agents to humans in offensive cyber operations (RAND)
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2.
The report assesses that Large Language Model (LLM) Agents pose an emerging biosecurity risk by potentially lowering the domain expertise barrier needed to select and operate sophisticated biological tools (BTs). While frontier LLMs demonstrate initial capability in identifying appropriate BTs, their ability to execute complex, contextualized tasks or maintain consistent operation is mixed and prone to errors. This suggests that non-expert malicious actors could gain access to dangerous biosecurity pathways. Policymakers must prioritize targeted research into the technical barriers at the intersection of AI and biotechnology to develop robust safeguards against misuse in biological weapons development.
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3.
The rapid expansion of AI data centers creates immense power demands that threaten U.S. grid reliability and capacity. RAND analyzed critical electrical equipment across generation, transmission, and backup systems, finding that supply chain vulnerabilities are a major constraint on meeting future energy needs. The research found that generation components exhibit systematically higher vulnerability scores than standardized transmission parts, with risks varying significantly by specific component (e.g., market concentration vs. volume volatility). Consequently, policymakers must implement highly tailored supply chain resilience strategies and targeted interventions for each vulnerable component to ensure AI development can proceed without critical infrastructure bottlenecks.
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4.Looking Beyond the Government’s Regulatory Toolkit: Early Findings on How Business and Civil Society Actors Can Help Manage and Mitigate Transformative Artificial Intelligence Risks and Impacts (RAND)
This RAND report argues that managing the risks of transformative AI requires non-governmental actors to take a proactive role complementary to government regulation. The analysis develops a framework identifying three key roles for business and civil society: managing technical operational risks (e.g., pre-deployment testing); shaping market incentives through procurement and insurance; and supporting social stability via workforce transition planning. By detailing these actions, the report provides actionable strategies that can raise industry safety standards and build public trust in AI systems, effectively establishing a 'plumbing' for safety ahead of formal policy implementation.
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5.
The RAND analysis finds that while impact fees are crucial local revenue sources, they significantly constrain housing development feasibility in high-cost California cities. The study demonstrates that reducing these one-time fees increases the number of financially viable housing units by making previously unfeasible high-density parcels profitable. Crucially, this short-term loss of fee revenue is projected to be offset by substantial long-term gains from recurring property and sales taxes within 4–8 years. Policymakers should therefore consider targeted fee reductions, pairing them with complementary zoning reforms, as the sustained tax benefits outweigh the immediate fiscal pressure.
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6.Cultivating a Warrior Ethos in the Air Force: Strategies for Developing Airminded Warriors in Initial Training (RAND)
RAND recommends that the U.S. Air Force adopt a holistic framework to cultivate a unified 'Airminded Warrior' identity, arguing that single changes to basic training are insufficient for success. Drawing on lessons from sister services, the report identifies three reinforcing pillars—"Tell," "Show," and "Do"—to institutionalize service ethos within initial training. Key evidence gathered from interviews with military personnel highlights that developing this identity requires consistently linking individual roles across all career fields to the overarching airpower mission. Policymakers should implement these multi-faceted strategies, ensuring that physical environments, uniform symbolism, and routine habits reinforce a broad sense of shared service identity rather than just functional expertise.
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7.Quality and Patient Safety Review Processes in Military Treatment Facilities and Operational Clinical Services (RAND)
The RAND report assesses clinical quality management (CQM) in the Military Health System (MHS), finding that while permanent facilities (MTFs) maintain robust safety processes, monitoring care across diverse Operational Clinical Services (OCS) is severely hampered by inconsistent location data and variable infrastructure. The analysis concludes that applying a uniform standard for patient safety is inappropriate due to the extreme variability of OCS settings—ranging from planes to fixed bases—which necessitates flexible oversight. Policy recommendations emphasize developing tailored, site-specific quality assurance mechanisms for operational environments while continuing to strengthen core CQM processes within established military treatment facilities.
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8.
The RAND report analyzes the growing interest in psychedelics among U.S. veterans, finding that nearly one in four support legal psilocybin use for mental health treatment. This increased acceptance is driven by the high prevalence of conditions like PTSD among service members and a general desire for advanced therapeutic options. Veterans show strong policy support for the VA to provide or pay for psychedelics-assisted therapy (e.g., 54% for psilocybin), contingent on FDA approval. Policymakers must address veteran concerns regarding potential loss of VA benefits while navigating accelerating federal and state efforts to legalize and research these substances.
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9.The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s Approach to Maintenance Management: Cooking Dumplings in a Teapot (RAND)
The PLAN is rapidly modernizing its fleet and will adopt a hybrid maintenance strategy to sustain its growing inventory of advanced combatants. While promoting self-sufficiency through series production, the analysis finds that organic units still rely on higher echelons for sophisticated repairs, creating logistical strain. This rapid buildup complicates maintenance pipelines and places immense stress on the workforce due to both technological complexity and sheer volume of new assets. Strategically, these challenges suggest that while the PLAN is improving its processes, maintaining efficiency and managing skill gaps will be critical points of vulnerability in future competition.
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10.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's Medicaid provisions are projected to impose substantial financial strain on state budgets, estimating a total reduction of $679 billion in state Medicaid funds over 2025–2034. The impact is highly variable by state; large expansion states that rely heavily on provider taxes and managed care face the largest losses, while smaller or non-expansion states may see minimal change or even gains from specific programs like the Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP). Policymakers must anticipate significant budget cuts, as a majority of states are expected to see reductions of 5% or more in their Medicaid funding. This necessitates state-level strategic planning to mitigate deep financial shortfalls and maintain essential health services.
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11.Why Do Middle and High Schoolers Miss School? Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel and the American Parents Panel (RAND)
Despite declining rates since their peak, chronic absenteeism in U.S. secondary schools remains a significant post-pandemic challenge. The analysis reveals that the issue is largely attitudinal, as one-third of surveyed youth feel that missing three or more weeks of school is 'mostly OK.' This trend is driven by older students who increasingly view non-physical reasons—such as anxiety, needing rest, or catching up on work—as legitimate excuses for absence. Policy implications suggest that interventions must move beyond traditional health mandates and address the evolving social norms and perceived legitimacy of absences among youth and families.
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12.Personnel Vetting 101 Applicant Toolkit: Frequently Asked Questions and Common Misperceptions (RAND)
This RAND toolkit clarifies the complex, multi-layered U.S. government personnel vetting process, which determines an individual's suitability for everything from general employment to access to classified national security information. The guidance distinguishes between Suitability (general federal roles), Fitness (noncompetitive service/contractors), and Security Clearance eligibility, emphasizing that all USG employees undergo some form of vetting. A key finding is the absolute requirement for full transparency: applicants must answer every question completely and truthfully, as omitting or misrepresenting information constitutes a severe breach of trust. For policy makers, this underscores the need for standardized communication to ensure personnel are fully aware of the rigorous standards required to maintain employment eligibility and national security access.
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This evaluation of Project imPACT found that comprehensive reentry programs for justice-involved individuals can successfully reduce recidivism risk by adopting a client-centered, holistic model. The program's success is attributed to its ability to expand access to culturally congruent mental health and substance use services while integrating behavioral, legal, housing, and employment support. Preliminary data indicated promising progress, with only 28% of participants being arrested post-enrollment. Policymakers should consider adopting integrated, community-based service frameworks that prioritize individual needs and lived experience to improve outcomes for vulnerable populations.
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14.Insights and Tools to Improve the Applicant Experience with the Personnel Vetting and Security Clearance Process (RAND)
The report argues that while personnel vetting is critical for national security, its current design overly emphasizes risk management at the expense of the applicant experience. Key evidence shows that inconsistent, unclear, or incomplete official guidance creates confusion, frustration, and mistrust among qualified applicants. To improve both security and talent acquisition, policy must treat vetting as a dual function: both a protective measure and a critical workforce process. Adopting a customer service mindset and improving communication transparency will make the process more intuitive, thereby strengthening trust and enhancing the USG's ability to attract trusted personnel.
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15.Understanding Partner Preferences in the Selection of Defense Capabilities: Case Studies Exploring the Selection of Alternatives to U.S. Solutions (RAND)
The report argues that while the U.S. remains a dominant defense supplier, partner nations are increasingly selecting non-U.S. alternatives due to complex motivations beyond mere cost or functionality. Analysis of eight case studies demonstrates that purchasing decisions are driven by strategic considerations, such as enhancing regional autonomy, strengthening ties with specific allies (e.g., Japan or Korea), and responding to perceived local vulnerabilities. For U.S. policy, the findings imply a need for greater anticipatory engagement; rather than solely focusing on sales, the U.S. should prioritize building trilateral partnerships, offering production licensing incentives, and adapting its security cooperation strategy to remain relevant when direct solutions are unavailable.
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16.
This RAND report develops an analytic framework for Special and Incentive (S&I) pays in the U.S. Military, addressing concerns about pay confusion and component inequities raised by Congress. The analysis concludes that S&I pays are essential force management tools used to recruit, retain personnel in critical occupations, or compensate for hazardous assignments. By establishing a standardized framework, the report provides guidelines for services to clarify the purpose, eligibility criteria, and rationale behind specific bonuses. Implementing this structure is crucial for improving transparency within military compensation and strengthening the overall effectiveness of the defense workforce.
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17.Levers for Increasing College Student Access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Evidence from Colorado (RAND)
The report finds that only 37% of Colorado college students eligible for SNAP participate in the program, despite nearly one-quarter of college students nationwide struggling with food insecurity. Using linked administrative data, researchers modeled four policy levers: federal eligibility expansions (adding 2,700-5,300 students), state authorities to deem employment/training programs SNAP-eligible (3,300 students), statewide outreach campaigns (710 students), and college case management (475 students). Eligibility expansions yield substantially larger participation increases than outreach alone, suggesting states should prioritize broadening rules while combining efforts with awareness campaigns. However, even comprehensive approaches would leave many eligible students non-participating due to administrative burden, stigma, and limited benefits, requiring complementary strategies like food pantries and emergency aid. The research provides federal, state, and institutional decisionmakers with evidence for addressing college student food insecurity through multiple coordinated approaches.
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18.
Under Xi Jinping, China has fundamentally shifted its techno-industrial strategy from prioritizing growth and catch-up to emphasizing national security, technological self-reliance, and frontier technology leadership through five integrated policy channels—fiscal instruments, financial mechanisms, real economy levers, Party-firm coordination, and overseas initiatives. The Party-state has centralized control and moved from direct subsidies to market-based but politically-directed mechanisms (tax incentives, credit guidance, mandates, capital market reforms) due to tightening fiscal constraints. Although generating impressive technological capabilities and manufacturing scale in priority sectors, the system faces structural tensions: centralization risks suppressing the local experimentation that historically drove innovation, politicized capital allocation may degrade economic efficiency, and mandates spread compliance costs to firms while underlying productivity and demand remain weak. China's unprecedented manufacturing trade surplus is generating growing international friction, compounded by real exchange rate depreciation and industrial policy subsidies that force trading partners to absorb adjustment costs. The policy's long-term effectiveness depends on resolving the central paradox: the centralization needed for strategic focus may simultaneously erode the decentralized competition and local dynamism that enabled China's prior rapid industrial development.
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RAND proposes the Flagpole to Front Lines (F2FL) framework to replace the outdated JCIDS military requirements process, emphasizing problem-centric innovation over technology-driven acquisition. F2FL traces national security objectives through operational tasks to specific capability requirements using iterative agile sprints (conceptualize, build, finalize), creating transparent linkage and reducing bureaucratic complexity. By identifying operational problems first and enabling early industry collaboration, the approach accelerates capability delivery while maintaining strategic coherence. This is particularly relevant to the complex security environment the U.S. faces, including Indo-Pacific deterrence and homeland defense priorities outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy.
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20.Navigating Duality in Space: Establishing a Foundational Understanding of Dual-Use Space Activities (RAND)
Space systems increasingly serve both civilian and military functions, creating ambiguity that could lead to dangerous misinterpretations and escalation. RAND's three-year study found that stakeholders broadly recognize most space systems as dual-use, but no universal definition exists and nations lack explicit governance frameworks—most relying on implicit or ambiguous policies. The report recommends stakeholders adopt behavior-based governance frameworks focused on observable actions rather than intent, include diverse stakeholders in framework development, and address the lag between technological innovation and policy response. Such mechanisms could reduce misperception risks while enabling continued technological advancement in space capabilities.
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21.
The 2026 State of the American Teacher survey documents K-12 public school teachers' well-being, job satisfaction, compensation, working conditions, and retention intentions through a nationally representative sample of 829 weighted responses from 2,000 teachers. Using rigorous statistical weighting methods calibrated to match national teacher population characteristics, the survey ensures representativeness across school types, poverty levels, and demographics, with a comparison survey of 498 general working adults providing context. Key measured areas include job-related stress, depression, burnout, motivation, financial well-being, school climate, student mental health support provision, and retention intentions. This comprehensive evidence base directly informs policy decisions regarding teacher compensation adequacy, working conditions, and targeted support systems needed to address teacher workforce retention and well-being challenges.
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22.Teacher Well-Being, Pay, and Intentions to Leave in 2026: Selected Findings from the 2026 State of the American Teacher Survey (RAND)
The 2026 State of the American Teacher survey reveals that U.S. public school teachers continue to experience significantly worse well-being than comparable working adults, with 55% reporting frequent job-related stress and persistent gender disparities—female teachers report 15 percentage points more stress than male peers. Teachers face substantial economic challenges: they earn $29,500 less in base salary than similar working adults ($75,599 vs. $105,000), only 39% received inflation-adjusted pay raises in 2025–2026, and 94% spend their own money on classroom supplies ($665 average). While teacher turnover intentions have stabilized at 18%, the profession faces structural retention challenges driven by low pay, work-life balance issues (teachers work 54 hours weekly), student behavior management pressures, and a gender-based pay gap of $7,400. These findings underscore that sustainable teacher recruitment and retention require addressing compensation gaps, working conditions, and the differential impacts on female educators.
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23.
The RAND–Oxford report argues that the U.S. and UK must establish coordinated bilateral frameworks to secure frontier AI systems against sophisticated nation-state threats. Current AI lab defenses are insufficient against advanced state actors, though both countries possess deep expertise in protecting critical technologies. The report proposes a cluster-based framework organizing AI security into five interconnected domains—access controls, supply chain, monitoring/response, personnel security, and physical security—enabling risk-informed, modular implementation without requiring wholesale industry restructuring. Key recommendations include establishing joint threat intelligence infrastructure, accelerating hardware security R&D, extending government personnel vetting to labs, coordinating supply-chain security, expanding red-teaming, conducting joint crisis exercises, and establishing common security standards.
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24.Verified Machine Learning Infrastructure: Formal Methods for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence Deployment (RAND)
The RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the rapid advancement of frontier AI capabilities by late 2026 necessitates immediate action to secure the underlying machine learning infrastructure. Utilizing formal methods – mathematical techniques for software verification – offers a potential solution to bolster the security of AI systems before these capabilities become fully operational. The report identifies key vulnerabilities within AI inference and training stacks and highlights the urgency driven by converging cyber threats. Recommendations are offered for a collaborative roadmap involving AI labs, formal methods experts, hardware vendors, and government agencies to establish verified machine learning infrastructure.
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25.Gender Norms Survey Measurement in Very Young Adolescents in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of Survey Efforts and Synthesis of Best Practices (RAND)
The RAND report, published in 2026, synthesizes existing efforts to measure gender norms in very young adolescents (VYAs) – aged 10-14 – within low- and middle-income countries. It highlights significant gaps in understanding VYA experiences and the need for improved measurement strategies to assess the impact of entrenched norms and evaluate intervention effectiveness. The analysis identifies key survey initiatives like GEAS and GAGE, while acknowledging limitations in global measures. Recommendations emphasize tailoring survey instruments to specific age contexts, integrating qualitative data, and measuring norms across families and communities to enhance validity and reliability.
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26.Updating California’s Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and Toxic Stress Risk Assessment and Response Algorithm (RAND)
This RAND report details the update of California’s ACEs and Toxic Stress Risk Assessment Algorithm, driven by a need to incorporate the latest scientific understanding and clinical experience. The update, informed by a committee of ten experts and usability testing with 97 California clinicians, refines the algorithm to prioritize trauma-informed care, emphasize protective factors, and account for a broader range of adverse experiences beyond the original ten ACE categories. Clinician accuracy in assessing risk and selecting appropriate clinical responses averaged 88-89% during testing, highlighting the algorithm’s potential for practical application. The updated algorithm aims to improve early identification and response to toxic stress physiology, ultimately contributing to better health outcomes for children and adults.
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27.Investigating the potential use of frontier AI models for offensive cyberattacks: A human uplift study (RAND)
The study investigated whether frontier AI models significantly enhance the capability of lower-skilled threat actors in offensive cyber operations. Key findings indicate that while AI access provides suggestive 'onboarding' uplift for novices in basic cyber skills, there is no statistically significant evidence that AI enables the successful completion of complex, end-to-end cyber attack chains. This suggests that the primary barrier to success remains the inherent difficulty of advanced cyber tasks, regardless of AI support. Policymakers must therefore balance the development of advanced AI capabilities with robust security guardrails, recognizing that while novice misuse is a concern, the threat from highly skilled threat actors remains a critical focus for mitigation.
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28.The Effects of the Measure ULA (United to House LA) Transfer Tax on Economic Development and Municipal Finances in Los Angeles (RAND)
The RAND report analyzes Measure ULA, a real estate transfer tax intended to fund affordable housing in Los Angeles, concluding that the tax has significantly depressed the local real estate market and dampened commercial development. Key evidence shows that ULA has reduced high-value transactions by 31% and decreased housing production, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in forgone municipal revenue and job losses. The analysis recommends a targeted tax reform—such as exempting newer properties and lowering rates on older projects—which would preserve current funding levels while simultaneously increasing municipal revenue by over $800 million, generating thousands of new housing units, and stimulating job growth.
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29.
This RAND report analyzes how tort liability can influence safety practices in high-consequence life sciences research. While existing safety is governed by a complex web of regulations, the study finds that researchers are more aware of compliance rules than the risk of civil litigation, suggesting tort liability is an underutilized incentive. The analysis, which combines legal review and expert interviews, argues that tort liability plays a small but important role in risk reduction by creating high-level accountability. Policymakers should consider modifying the liability structure, such as implementing strict liability, to create stronger, more effective marginal incentives for improved biosafety and risk management in critical biological research.
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30.The Effect of the Massachusetts Health Care Cost Growth Benchmark on Hospital Revenues and Other Spending Outcomes: Associations with Hospital Revenue, Hospital Prices, and Insurance Premiums (RAND)
This RAND report analyzes the effectiveness of Massachusetts's health care cost growth benchmark, a state policy designed to constrain escalating healthcare expenditures. Using advanced statistical methods, the study assesses the benchmark's impact on key spending outcomes, including hospital revenues, prices, and insurance premiums, while carefully controlling for confounding factors like the Affordable Care Act. The research provides a detailed, data-driven framework for determining whether state-level cost controls genuinely reduce spending growth relative to a counterfactual scenario. The findings are highly relevant for policymakers in other states considering adopting or modifying similar benchmarks to manage rising healthcare costs.
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31.
A tabletop exercise analyzing battle damage repair (BDR) for Arleigh Burke-class destroyers concluded that current U.S. and allied plans are insufficient for sustaining rapid force regeneration in a high-intensity Indo-Pacific conflict. Key deficiencies include outdated command-and-control structures, limited organic repair capacity, and significant vulnerabilities in allied host-nation facilities and supply chains. Strategically, the report recommends that the U.S. Navy institutionalize clearer C2 and expand its deployable repair capabilities. Furthermore, allies must pre-negotiate legal frameworks and co-develop resilient, distributed repair nodes to maintain maritime dominance.
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32.Challenges When Collaborating with China on Space Research and Technology: Common Practices and Risks (RAND)
The RAND report warns that space sector collaborations with China often result in asymmetric outcomes that favor Beijing's national interests. Key risks include financing conditional on using Chinese vendors, the cession of intellectual property and data control, and the potential for data processing to route through Chinese state-operated facilities. These risks extend beyond economic concerns, encompassing espionage, technology theft, and the manipulation of dual-use space systems. Policymakers must therefore implement rigorous due diligence, comprehensive legal reviews, and robust cybersecurity safeguards for all space-related activities involving China.
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33.Qualified Medical Evaluators and the Medical-Legal Process in California Workers' Compensation (RAND)
This RAND analysis assesses the sustainability and efficiency of California's Qualified Medical Evaluator (QME) system, which is critical for resolving workers' compensation disputes. Key findings reveal structural challenges, including supply/demand mismatches, difficulties in medical record delivery, and concerns regarding the current reimbursement structure. To improve the system's quality and sustainability, the report recommends structural reforms, such as implementing centralized electronic record repositories and adjusting fee schedules to better support QMEs and the overall medical-legal process.
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34.Annual Trends Among the Unsheltered in Three Los Angeles Neighborhoods: The Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic Survey (LA LEADS) 2025 Annual Report (RAND)
The LA LEADS 2025 report indicates that while overall unsheltered homelessness has plateaued, the composition of the crisis is shifting dramatically from visible encampments to rough sleeping and vehicle dwelling. This shift is critical because rough sleepers are more geographically diffuse, present higher average acuity levels, and are less responsive to traditional encampment-resolution strategies. Consequently, the report warns that continued reliance on tent-focused interventions will yield diminishing returns. Policy must pivot toward scaling up low-barrier behavioral health care and long-term supportive housing to effectively address the increasingly clinical and diffuse nature of the unsheltered population.
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35.Implementing Direct Assessment Competency-Based Education in Community Colleges: Findings from a Pilot in Eight California Community Colleges (RAND)
The RAND pilot found that Direct Assessment Competency-Based Education (CBE) is a promising model for community colleges seeking to improve student outcomes and align education more closely with workforce demands. Successful implementation, however, is highly resource-intensive, requiring substantial upfront investment in technology, content development, and dedicated, cross-departmental staff. Key systemic barriers include navigating complex accreditor and federal approval processes, securing sustained funding, and overcoming limited faculty buy-in. Policymakers must therefore develop flexible funding models and streamline regulatory frameworks to allow these innovative, equity-focused educational structures to scale effectively across the system.
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This RAND report develops a scenario-planning framework to analyze the complex future mental health landscape of the UK Armed Forces community through 2045. The analysis identifies key stressors, including the evolving character of conflict, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader societal trends like increased mental health awareness and technological disruption. The core finding is that the sector must move beyond reactive care, requiring proactive, collaborative strategic planning across military, NHS, and third-sector organizations. Ultimately, the report stresses the need for adaptable and resilient support systems to meet the unique and growing mental health needs of personnel and veterans.
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37.Outcome Evaluation of Los Angeles County’s Juvenile Justice Client Assessment Recommendation and Evaluation (CARE) Program (RAND)
The RAND evaluation finds that Los Angeles County's CARE Program provides crucial, holistic support to vulnerable youth in the juvenile justice system, significantly improving their long-term stability and well-being. While the program does not show a statistically significant effect on short-term recidivism, its primary value lies in generating substantial fiscal savings and improving quality-of-life outcomes, such as educational and mental health attainment. To enhance effectiveness and sustainability, the report recommends addressing systemic barriers, including strengthening data systems (e.g., using NLP) and expanding staffing capacity for resource attorneys and social workers. These improvements are critical for maximizing the program's rehabilitative impact and ensuring continued fiscal benefit.
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38.
The RAND assessment concludes that the Department of Defense's Business Enterprise Architecture (DBEA) is struggling to modernize and fulfill its statutory mandate for business process reengineering. Key findings indicate that institutional inertia, overly broad legal specifications, and an incentive structure focused solely on funding information systems are undermining the framework's potential. To achieve true utility, the DoD must pivot its focus from merely funding systems to defining practical, bounded use cases—such as those related to financial audits—to prove the architecture's value. This shift is critical for driving necessary business process improvements and ensuring the DBEA matures into an effective operational tool.
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39.How School Cell Phone Policy Strictness Shapes Student Phone Use: Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel (RAND)
Research indicates that while strict school cell phone policies significantly mitigate student phone checking, they do not eliminate the behavior. The key finding is that student checking frequency correlates strongly with both the restrictiveness of the school's policy and the perceived strictness of its enforcement. Even in highly restrictive environments, students report using evasive tactics and continuing to check their phones. Policymakers should therefore move beyond implementing blanket bans, focusing instead on consistent, visible enforcement and acknowledging student skepticism regarding the overall efficacy of these rules.
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40.How to Forecast China’s Lithography Leap: A Comparative Analysis of the Delphi Method and Crowdsourced Forecasting (RAND)
A RAND report compared the Delphi method (expert workshop) and crowdsourced forecasting to predict China's ability to produce advanced lithography equipment by 2026 and 2030. While both groups identified similar influencing factors, the Delphi group was slightly more accurate, emphasizing the short timeframe for China's technological leap. The study highlights the flexibility of both forecasting methods and recommends ongoing data collection and forecaster training for future research, informing policy decisions regarding U.S. export controls and China's semiconductor ambitions.
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41.Reading Full Books in Secondary English Language Arts Classrooms: Findings from the Spring 2025 American Instructional Resources Survey (RAND)
A RAND survey of secondary English Language Arts teachers reveals that two-thirds plan to assign one to four full books annually, but teachers serving disadvantaged students assign fewer. While most teachers assign more books than their curricula require, those using publisher-developed materials assign fewer. The findings suggest a potential link between assigning full books and increased student engagement with grade-level texts, highlighting the importance of revisiting curriculum design and instructional practices to prioritize full-length works.
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42.China's Science and Technology Strategy in Perspective: Historical Evolution, Political Drivers, and Global Implications (RAND)
This RAND report analyzes China's evolving science and technology (S&T) strategy, highlighting a shift towards centralized, CCP-led innovation emphasizing technological self-reliance and integration with national security goals. Key findings include the strategic importance of S&T for China's power projection, the rise of military-civil fusion, and a move away from reliance on foreign technology. The report underscores the need for policymakers to understand China's approach to S&T, balancing collaboration with safeguards for research integrity and national security.
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43.Force Multipliers in the Americas: Harnessing Security Force Assistance to Bolster Homeland Defense and U.S. Strategic Objectives in Latin America (RAND)
This RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the U.S. Department of War can effectively leverage security force assistance (SFA) activities in Latin America to bolster homeland defense, counter transnational threats, and advance U.S. strategic influence. The report highlights the increasing convergence of threats from state adversaries and non-state actors, emphasizing the need for innovative SFA approaches, particularly utilizing the Army Security Cooperation Group—South and National Guard State Partnership Programs. Ultimately, the report suggests that targeted SFA can be a cost-effective tool for addressing regional challenges and countering Chinese influence.
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44.Breaking Barriers Rapid Rehousing Program for Justice-Involved Individuals in Los Angeles County: Local Evaluation Report (RAND)
The evaluation of the Breaking Barriers program found that its robust, individualized supportive services and strong inter-agency collaboration significantly improve housing stability for justice-involved individuals, with retention rates exceeding 80% after one year. While the program successfully met most operational goals, the report emphasizes that progress is severely limited by persistent external systemic barriers, including high housing costs, lack of affordable units, and job discrimination. Policy recommendations stress that while continued flexible case management is vital, long-term success requires systemic interventions, such as expanding permanent supportive housing and addressing structural economic barriers to ensure sustained reentry outcomes.
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45.Gaps in State Workforce Priorities, Needs, and Training Programs: Findings from a National Scan of WIOA Plans and Eligible Training Provider Lists (RAND)
This RAND analysis reveals significant misalignment between state workforce development plans (WIOA) and actual labor market needs, suggesting that current training investments are inefficient. Key findings show that states often define 'credentials of value' imprecisely and that eligible training providers frequently fail to offer programs for the most critical, in-demand, and high-quality occupations. Furthermore, the report notes that training program completers fall short of filling job openings for the majority of targeted occupations. Policymakers must mandate stronger cross-agency coordination between workforce planning, postsecondary education, and industry to ensure that WIOA funding effectively targets genuine economic opportunities and addresses labor shortages.
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46.
The RAND report finds that Indiana possesses numerous flexible policy options for addressing cannabis, ranging from simple decriminalization to full adult-use legalization, and is not restricted to models used by neighboring states. Key evidence suggests that while current enforcement costs are substantial, legalizing the market could generate significant state tax revenue (estimated around $180 million annually under certain scenarios). For policy strategy, the report recommends that Indiana consider a gradual and flexible approach—such as initially limiting product types or incorporating sunset provisions—to manage the transition and minimize regulatory risk.
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47.Health Care Access and Quality for New York Veterans Provided by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Community Care: Volume II, Methods and Supporting Data (RAND)
This RAND report provides a comprehensive data analysis of health care access and quality for New York veterans, focusing on the increasing reliance on the private sector through the Community Care program. Key evidence includes detailed analyses of geographic access (drive times) and wait times for specialized services like oncology and neurology, alongside systematic reviews of care quality. The findings argue that expanding eligibility for Community Care is a crucial policy mechanism to improve the timeliness and overall quality of care for the veteran population. Policymakers should use this data to strategically adjust VA guidelines, ensuring that the transition to private care maintains high standards of accessibility and quality.
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48.
Indiana maintains strict cannabis laws despite significant public support for legalization and a large, growing market estimated at $1.8 billion annually. The primary policy challenge is the existence of a gap between state law and the proliferation of largely unregulated, intoxicating hemp products sold in local retail outlets. Furthermore, the state's potential path to legalization differs significantly from most existing academic research, which is based on states that previously legalized medical cannabis. Policymakers must navigate this complex regulatory environment, balancing public demand, federal legislative uncertainty, and the need to mitigate public health risks associated with unregulated sales.
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49.Health Care Access and Quality for New York Veterans Provided by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and Community Care: Volume I, Understanding the Impact of Proposed Policy Changes (RAND)
This RAND analysis examines the impact of proposed policy changes that would expand Community Care eligibility for New York veterans, who often face limited geographic access to VA facilities. While expanding eligibility could improve veterans' geographic access to care, the report finds that the implications for care quality and timeliness are mixed or unclear, noting that VA facilities generally maintain higher outpatient quality standards than private providers. The authors conclude that while policy changes may improve access, the current lack of comprehensive, publicly available data on wait times and expenditures prevents a definitive assessment of the overall impact. Therefore, the report strongly recommends that the VA and New York State release detailed data to enable accurate policy modeling and decision-making.
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50.Evaluating Large Language Models' Abilities to Process and Understand Technical Policy Reports (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of a specialized benchmark to accurately evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) on complex, technical policy reports. The authors found that standard LLMs perform poorly (48-54% accuracy) on nuanced policy claims, demonstrating that out-of-the-box solutions are insufficient for high-stakes decision support. To improve reliability, the report recommends moving beyond binary truth assessments, utilizing multi-category truthfulness metrics to capture partial inaccuracies and inferred reasoning. Strategically, while LLMs hold promise for synthesizing policy findings and identifying evidence gaps, their deployment requires significant domain-specific fine-tuning and rigorous testing before they can be trusted by public decision-makers.
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51.
This RAND report analyzes the repeal of the Survivor Benefit Plan (SBP) Optional Child Annuity, a provision that previously allowed payments to dependent children without an offset. While the repeal created uncertainty for child beneficiaries, the analysis concludes that the resulting financial hardship and administrative issues are currently relatively small in scale. Key evidence shows that thousands of accounts are facing eligibility verification issues following the repeal. Therefore, the authors recommend improving administrative guidance for beneficiaries seeking payment restoration rather than advocating for major legislative changes to the SBP.
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52.Agricultural Security Considerations for the U.S. Corn Belt: Reviewing Key Threats and Mitigation Strategies for Bioresiliency (RAND)
This RAND report identifies agricultural security in the U.S. Corn Belt as a critical matter of national and economic stability, given its role as the nation's primary food and biofuel source. The region faces complex, interacting threats, including biological pathogens, extreme climate variability, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the risk of agroterrorism. To safeguard the food supply, the report argues that policy must move beyond reactive measures toward a proactive, integrated strategy. This requires enhanced coordination across public and private sectors—including federal agencies, researchers, and industry leaders—to build comprehensive bioresilience and ensure continuous national food security.
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53.Simpler Is Better for Autograders: Toward Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks (RAND)
This RAND report addresses the bottleneck of evaluating large language models (LLMs) in open-ended tasks, which is typically constrained by the high cost and slow speed of expert human grading. The analysis tested five autograding methods and found that the simple 'single rubric' approach consistently outperformed complex techniques like metaprompting or prompt optimization. This method achieves a statistically significant reduction in error while matching or exceeding the accuracy of nonexpert human graders, but at a fraction of the time and cost. Policymakers should adopt single-rubric autograders as the default, scalable solution to enable cost-effective and reliable LLM evaluation across diverse domains.
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54.
The RAND evaluation concludes that depot buprenorphine (DB) provision has expanded markedly in England following new grant funding, exhibiting a rapid, S-shaped uptake curve. Key evidence shows a sharp increase in provision, with recipients often being younger women with lower disability rates compared to other opioid substitution treatment groups. The report advises policymakers that while DB offers benefits like improved adherence, its high cost and limited real-world evidence base require careful management. Therefore, the findings are intended to guide the Department of Health and Social Care in optimizing the provision of this long-acting injectable treatment to maximize recovery outcomes and ensure cost-effectiveness.
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55.Integrated care for people who use alcohol and/or other drugs: A case study analysis of the current landscape in England (RAND)
The analysis reveals that while integrated care for substance use and co-occurring mental/physical health issues is critical, service provision across England remains highly fragmented. Key evidence shows that the limited specificity of supplementary funding (SSMTRG) and the sheer scale of the challenge contribute to substantial variation in care quality across local areas. Policymakers must therefore focus on systemic improvements, moving beyond localized funding mechanisms to mandate robust collaboration between specialized drug services and broader Integrated Care Systems (ICSs). This suggests a strategic need for national guidelines and coordinated investment to ensure comprehensive, gap-free patient support.
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56.The barriers and facilitators to supporting, commissioning and working with Lived Experience Recovery Organisations in systems of care in England (RAND)
The report argues that Lived Experience Recovery Organisations (LEROs) are vital components of recovery-oriented systems of care, but their integration is hampered by systemic barriers, primarily a lack of consistent definition among stakeholders. Key evidence shows that the sustainability and autonomy of LEROs are highly dependent on funding models; stable, direct commissioning is crucial, whereas fragmented or short-term grants lead to instability and limited visibility. For policy, the findings imply that authorities must standardize LERO definitions and shift away from fragmented funding. Strategic commissioning must prioritize direct, ring-fenced allocations to ensure LEROs maintain autonomy and consistent engagement within the local care system.
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57.
This methods report details the rigorous evaluation framework for the UK's Drug Strategy Investment in Treatment and Recovery (D-SITAR). The study employs a comprehensive mixed-methods approach, integrating administrative data, local authority records, and extensive input from public and expert advisory groups across six priority areas. By utilizing Implementation Research Logic Models, the evaluation aims to rigorously assess the effectiveness and implementation of major public health interventions, such as workforce transformation and depot buprenorphine provision. The resulting evidence will be critical for the Department of Health and Social Care to refine, optimize, and guide future national drug treatment policies and resource allocation in England.
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58.
The RAND evaluation found that the Housing Support Grant (HSG) successfully addressed housing insecurity for individuals with substance use issues by implementing an intensive, person-centered, and holistic approach. Key evidence shows that the grant filled critical gaps in local service provision, with stakeholders praising its adaptability and flexibility to meet diverse local and individual needs. The report concludes that such locally tailored, flexible funding models are effective strategies for improving public health outcomes in addiction and recovery services. Policymakers should consider adopting similar mechanisms to stabilize housing and improve access to treatment.
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59.Evaluation of the Networks for School Improvement Initiative—How Network Hubs Develop and Support Continuous Improvement Networks: Data Sources and Methodology (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates how structured network hubs facilitate continuous improvement within school systems, arguing that these networks are critical for improving student outcomes, particularly for marginalized populations. The research analyzes multiple case studies, finding that network success is strongly correlated with the breadth of coaching support and the central, active role of the network hub. Policymatically, the findings suggest that educational intermediaries and school districts should strategically invest in and structure these continuous improvement networks. This approach provides a scalable model for improving educational quality and ensuring sustained progress beyond initial grant funding.
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60.Evaluation of the Networks for School Improvement Initiative—How Network Hubs Develop and Support Continuous Improvement Networks: Final Report (RAND)
This RAND final report evaluates the Gates Foundation's Networks for School Improvement initiative and argues that well-supported network hubs can improve school performance by sustaining continuous improvement practices across districts and schools. Drawing on multi-year evidence from 25 school networks, the study finds that hub quality, coaching breadth, data use, and strong network cohesion are closely associated with better perceived benefits and greater long-term sustainability. The report implies that education policymakers and philanthropic funders should invest not only in local school interventions but also in intermediary organizations that coordinate coaching, shared learning, and improvement routines. In strategic terms, durable school improvement requires national and district-level support for network infrastructure rather than one-off grant programs alone.
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61.Implementation of the Treatment and Recovery Portfolio of the 'From Harm to Hope' drug strategy in England: Results from a process evaluation (RAND)
This RAND process evaluation assesses the implementation of the 'From Harm to Hope' Treatment and Recovery Portfolio in England, analyzing the centralized distribution of £780 million in funding to local authorities. The study uses a mixed-methods approach to determine if the national strategy was executed as intended, focusing on the mechanisms by which central government guidance influenced local service delivery. Key findings identify specific pathways that are effective and highlight structural challenges in the current funding and governance model. The report provides critical policy recommendations aimed at improving the central delivery structure to optimize the national drug strategy and enhance local treatment outcomes.
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62.Factors that influence employees' perceptions and experiences of working within the treatment and recovery sector in England (RAND)
This RAND evaluation assesses the implementation of England's major workforce transformation program for drug and alcohol treatment and recovery. The study argues that employee perceptions and job sustainability are critically influenced by a combination of contextual resources and staff attitudes, analyzed through the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. Key findings highlight that simply increasing funding is insufficient; true sustainability requires systemic improvements in service delivery. Policymakers must therefore prioritize developing clear career pathways, improving supervision quality, and managing caseloads to stabilize the workforce and ensure consistent, high-quality care.
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63.Fiscal Year 2025 Assessment of the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (RAND)
This RAND assessment evaluates the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (AcqDemo), a long-standing DoD initiative designed to manage the civilian workforce supporting the Department of Defense's acquisition mission. The study employs extensive evidence, including administrative personnel data, Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS) extracts, grievance data, and 85 stakeholder interviews. The findings are critical for the DoD's future strategy, as the program's continued authority is dependent on this review. Ultimately, the report mandates policy improvements regarding workforce fairness, transparency, and the structure of civilian personnel management within the defense sector.
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64.
The RAND report finds that access to Out-of-School Time (OST) opportunities in Allegheny County is highly uneven, with many high-need neighborhoods lacking sufficient programming per child. Analysis of funding reveals that while some state support has increased, the decline of major federal funding streams necessitates continued local and state investment. Policymakers and funders should utilize mapping tools to target resources in underserved communities and address specific barriers, such as transportation, language support for immigrants, and programming for older students. Strategic intervention requires tailored investments to ensure equitable access and maintain community stability.
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65.Infinite Potential—Insights from the Viral Uplift Scenario: After-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises (RAND)
RAND's "Infinite Potential" exercises, simulating a National Security Council response to an AI-enabled biological crisis, revealed that containing advanced AI capabilities is likely infeasible. Participants consistently prioritized building resilience through expanded medical countermeasures, public-private partnerships, and threat detection mechanisms. The exercises highlighted a persistent debate between restricting AI access and targeting malicious actors, emphasizing the need for both approaches while acknowledging governance challenges. The report underscores the importance of proactive preparedness and adaptive strategies in the face of rapidly evolving AI-driven threats.
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66.Developing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures of Timely Experience of Diagnosis (PROMOTE-Dx) for Cancer: Survey and Quality Measure Development Report (RAND)
This RAND report details the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMOTE-Dx) to assess the timeliness of cancer diagnosis. Researchers conducted surveys and cognitive interviews with cancer patients and experts to identify factors contributing to diagnostic delays across three intervals: self-appraisal, help-seeking, and the diagnostic process itself. The resulting measures aim to complement existing data sources and provide insights into patient experiences, potentially informing quality improvement initiatives and highlighting the importance of addressing both patient and system-level factors that impact timely diagnosis. The study emphasizes the need to consider pre-health system delays (patient knowledge, fear) alongside health system delays (appointment availability, insurance coverage).
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67.
A RAND report assesses the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe program's progress in 2024-2025, finding increased application, enrollment, and graduation rates. Key observations include a trend toward younger cadets, a high rate of education placements among graduates, and a disconnect between Job ChalleNGe training and actual employment fields. The report highlights the positive reception of a new mentoring pilot program but notes data privacy concerns. Recommendations focus on tracking cadet ages, supporting mentoring program expansion, understanding employment patterns, and ensuring data security.
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68.Considering U.S. Air Force Culture When Modifying Career Development Pathways for Longer Assignments (RAND)
This RAND report examines the U.S. Air Force's response to Department of Defense directives to reduce permanent change of station moves and modify career development pathways. It finds that deeply ingrained cultural expectations around frequent moves hindering the adoption of longer assignments, as these moves have historically been linked to career progression. The report recommends a deliberate approach to policy changes, incorporating cultural considerations and change management strategies to ensure successful implementation and address resistance within the Air Force workforce.
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69.A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence (RAND)
This RAND report assesses the U.S. Air Force's efforts to establish a Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence and identifies capability gaps hindering its effectiveness. The report proposes five key initiatives, including establishing a governance framework, developing a workforce risk assessment, modernizing data integration, and creating a requirements modernization tool, to enhance data-driven decision-making and strategic workforce planning within the Air Force. Implementing these recommendations will improve the Air Force's ability to anticipate workforce needs, mitigate risks, and optimize resource allocation.
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70.Modifying Air Force Intelligence Career Development in Response to Targeted Permanent Change of Station Reductions (RAND)
A RAND report examines the impact of reduced permanent change of station (PCS) moves on Air Force intelligence officer and enlisted career development. The study found that frequent PCS moves are culturally ingrained for officer advancement and that enlisted development lacks robust management systems. To adapt to longer assignments, the report recommends tailoring career pathways, leveraging flexible practices, and reassessing assignment lengths, ultimately aiming to balance fiscal constraints with developmental needs and maintain both expertise and leadership capacity.
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71.Air Force Assignment Durations: Modeling Policy Changes and Their Effects on Cost, Readiness, and Retention (RAND)
A RAND study investigated policy options for the U.S. Air Force to reduce frequent permanent change of station (PCS) moves, driven by fiscal pressures and Department of War guidance. The analysis found that extending assignment durations, particularly overseas tours and enforcing longer tour lengths within the continental United States, could yield significant cost savings ($186-$240 million annually) while balancing readiness and retention. Implementation faces cultural resistance and requires a comprehensive approach including policy extensions, refined existing policies, targeted population strategies, and focusing on stability, alongside analytical tools and stakeholder engagement.
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72.
State education agency leaders value federal technical assistance that provides specialized expertise in instruction, evidence-based practices, and research capacity—particularly important for smaller states with limited staff. Effective TA requires long-term partnerships with providers deeply familiar with state context, timely compliance guidance with authoritative interpretation, and structured cross-state networking to help isolated administrators tackle shared challenges. Leaders highlight key pain points: slow federal approval processes, bureaucratic burdens, and inflexible contracting that limits responsiveness to evolving state priorities. The report recommends federal TA prioritize a coordinated "concierge" approach, proactive support for high-impact practices, reduced administrative overhead, and sustained funding for cross-state collaboration. Federal TA should function as thought partnership rather than compliance-focused enforcement, balancing centralized coordination benefits with greater state voice in selecting providers.
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73.
RAND concludes that firearm violence in Black communities constitutes a profound community shock, leading to systemic declines in welfare and prosperity. Evidence reviewed demonstrates that this violence is consistently linked to severe negative outcomes, including worsening physical and mental health, impaired educational attainment, and significant neighborhood-level economic harm. The report argues that addressing this crisis requires a paradigm shift, treating violence reduction not merely as a criminal justice issue, but as a critical public-health, educational, and economic imperative. Policymakers are urged to prioritize sustained investment in evidence-based community infrastructure and violence intervention programs.
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74.Standards-Aligned Instructional Materials Use and Science Practices in K–12 Schools: Findings from the Spring 2025 American Instructional Resources Survey (RAND)
K-12 science teachers are significantly less likely to use standards-aligned instructional materials (10-24% adoption) compared to ELA and math teachers (49-66%), driven by a critical shortage of quality-rated science curricula and greater teacher autonomy in material selection. The supply gap is stark: only 2-5 green-rated science materials are available per grade level versus 26-35 for ELA/math, forcing many teachers to rely on self-created or unvetted materials. While science teachers using standards-aligned materials report greater student engagement in recommended science and engineering practices, they also perceive these materials as too challenging and routinely modify them, potentially reducing implementation fidelity. Expanding the supply of rated science curricula, establishing district-level guidance on material adoption, and providing professional development on standards-aligned instruction could address these systemic gaps and improve science achievement nationally.
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75.
The report argues that the U.S. Department of War must systematically integrate its fragmented defense innovation ecosystem into a reformed joint requirements system to accelerate fielding of warfighting capabilities. Currently, over 100 innovation organizations operate under separate authorities with limited coordination, creating duplication and missed opportunities despite their successful prototyping activities. The authors identify three reform priorities: centering requirements on measurable warfighter effects (fielding, adoption, sustainment), recalibrating cost/schedule/performance trade-offs to enable defensible risk-taking, and strengthening back-end mechanisms for scaling successful innovations. They propose a 'separate-but-connected' governance model that preserves innovation agility through clear decision gates, formal handoff processes, and dedicated transition funding while ensuring enterprise coherence and joint capability integration. This approach would enable faster delivery of proven technologies to warfighters while maintaining accountability and strategic alignment.
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76.Internet Cutoff Switches as a Local Emergency Response for Damaging Artificial Intelligence Incidents (RAND)
This RAND report examines internet cutoff switches as emergency containment tools for damaging AI incidents in data centers. The analysis reveals a critical market failure: without liability for external damages, data center operators would rationally delay activating cutoffs to preserve revenue, even as AI escape risk grows exponentially. The authors conclude that three policy mechanisms are essential: assigning operators liability for catastrophic external damages, ensuring they understand cutoff use provides liability protection, and potentially compensating lost revenue to align private profit incentives with public risk management.
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77.Achieving Combat Sortie Generation Proficiency in the Air Force: An Examination of Goals, Gaps, Barriers, and Solutions (RAND)
RAND research identifies critical gaps in U.S. Air Force combat sortie generation proficiency—the ability to rapidly recover, refuel, rearm, and launch aircraft under combat conditions. Through expert interviews, literature review, and proficiency modeling, the authors find that current training practices vary inconsistently across units and fall far short of what Agile Combat Employment doctrine demands, particularly for rapid response to high-threat missile scenarios. Key barriers include lack of standardized training requirements, insufficient training frequency (units practicing hot integrated combat turns semi-annually when monthly or more is needed), resource constraints, personnel shortages, and organizational friction between operations and maintenance. The report recommends establishing formal CSG training requirements (similar to the Ready Aircrew Program), implementing standardized proficiency metrics, improving operational-maintenance coordination to resolve conflicts with flying hour programs, and addressing long-term personnel experience imbalances. Without systematic intervention, the Air Force will struggle to generate combat power at the speed and scale required for peer conflict.
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78.
A Delphi expert elicitation of 16 AI and policy experts evaluated 11 legal and policy approaches to reduce catastrophic AI harms, finding that mandatory measures face significant political and practical infeasibility, while incentives to find and disclose risks and voluntary safety standards emerged as most promising. Experts rated nearly all categories as desirable but questioned feasibility in the current U.S. political environment, with effectiveness varying substantially by actor type—highest for AI developers (3.3 average), lower for nonmalicious users (3.0), and lowest for malicious users (2.3). The most viable approaches require no federal government involvement and can be implemented through industry commitments and state-level action, including structured bug bounty programs, legal safe harbors for researchers, and coordinated vulnerability disclosure processes. Rather than waiting for comprehensive federal legislation, policymakers should pursue incremental, near-term measures that foster transparency through developer incentives and establish voluntary standards as scaffolding for future mandatory requirements. The analysis reflects growing skepticism about traditional regulatory approaches in the AI domain, with experts increasingly viewing private-sector and state-level action as more feasible pathways for near-term risk mitigation.
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79.
This technical documentation describes the American School District Panel's (ASDP) fall 2025 methodology refresh, expanding the survey frame from pre-selected districts to all 12,274 U.S. public school districts, with 345 responding (2.8% response rate). The weighting process was revised to account for nonresponse bias rather than selection probability, using district enrollment, geographic, demographic, and poverty data from federal sources to create nationally representative weights. These methodological improvements ensure that the ASDP—a biannual survey of K-12 school district leaders—produces reliable insights into district-level education policy priorities and challenges.
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80.Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications (RAND)
The report synthesizes diverse AGI forecasting methodologies and finds that multiple independent approaches—expert surveys, prediction markets, and compute-centric models—show convergent evidence toward earlier AGI timelines, with many clustering in the 2030s, driven by rapid scaling of compute resources and capital investment. However, forecasting infrastructure remains immature with significant limitations: benchmarks saturate quickly, influential models lack independent validation, and reasonable experts fundamentally disagree about whether scaling existing architectures will suffice, how rapidly capabilities will diffuse economically, and whether AI-driven research acceleration will compress timelines. The report identifies three core empirical cruxes—capability sufficiency, diffusion speed, and takeoff dynamics—that generate distinct expert positions, with disagreement persisting despite shared information. Rather than betting on specific timelines, decisionmakers should pursue scenario-robust strategies emphasizing technical expertise, evaluation infrastructure, and monitoring systems while keying different policy responses to observable triggers across domains. Strengthening forecasting through independent model validation, continuous capability measurement, and real-time monitoring of AI's role in research advancement would better position policymakers to manage uncertainty across the range of plausible futures.
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81.
The U.S. Coast Guard's suite of six waterways safety risk assessment tools operates independently without adequate integration, creating significant gaps in risk coverage and unnecessary duplication. Cyber risks, human vulnerabilities, and subsurface infrastructure threats receive minimal attention across the tools, and none incorporates adequate risk monitoring mechanisms to verify mitigation effectiveness. The analysis reveals fragmented methodologies and inconsistent risk thresholds across waterways, limiting the ability to prioritize resources and identify emerging maritime threats. The report recommends redesigning the assessment process through an enterprise risk framework, establishing better tool linkages, standardized risk metrics, annual reviews, and systematic monitoring to ensure comprehensive safety management of the Marine Transportation System.
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82.
RAND Europe forecasts that the UK Armed Forces community will undergo significant demographic shifts through 2045, with veteran numbers declining from 1.73 million (2025) to 1.06 million due to aging WWII and National Service generations, while the regular force remains stable at approximately 130,000-135,000 personnel. Using a sophisticated 'stocks-and-flows' population projection methodology applied to Ministry of Defence and Census data, the analysis demonstrates that despite smaller overall size, the community will become increasingly gender and ethnically diverse, with a higher proportion of working-age veterans requiring different support services. These findings carry important implications for defense policy and social support provision, requiring service providers to rebalance resources from age-related care toward employment, childcare, and mental health services while ensuring accessibility for a more diverse and intergenerational population.
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83.Evaluation of Pima County’s Bureau of Justice Assistance Fiscal Year 2021 Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative (RAND)
Pima County's Second Chance Act Pay for Success Initiative is a permanent supportive housing program targeting justice-involved adults experiencing homelessness and behavioral health challenges. The evaluation found that among 86 program participants with complete data, criminal justice involvement fell 35% after enrollment, total criminal justice events declined 58%, and average costs per participant decreased 46% ($10,450 to $5,657). However, substantial implementation challenges limit the program's reach: only 43 of 126 participants enrolled during the evaluation period were placed in permanent supportive housing due to limited affordable housing and voucher freezes that extended wait times from 5 to 9 months. The findings suggest permanent supportive housing shows promise for breaking cycles of incarceration and homelessness, but policymakers must address systemic barriers through improved data integration, stronger evaluation methods, and expanded housing resources to maximize impact and reach the significant unmet demand.
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84.
This RAND report provides the first comprehensive estimate of the UK Armed Forces bereaved community—over 100,000 people annually as of 2025—including partners, children, and service personnel/veterans who have lost family members. Using Ministry of Defence mortality data and Bayesian forecasting methods, the study estimates that partners bereaved of veterans comprise the largest group (53,100 annually), while the overall bereaved population will decline by 2045 due to aging demographics. The research highlights critical data gaps and emphasizes that a major conflict would substantially increase bereaved family members in younger age groups, fundamentally altering support needs. Support providers must prepare for demographic shifts and recognize the bereaved as a vital but historically overlooked part of the Armed Forces community requiring targeted long-term services.
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85.
A RAND study, based on expert consensus, outlines an 'ideal' integrated policy framework for early cancer care. Developed through a three-phase Expert Consensus Panel and Validation Workshops involving global cancer policy experts, the framework identifies key components such as Public Education, Primary Care Capacity, and Data Infrastructure as highly important. The research emphasizes that advancing early cancer care requires a unified, system-wide approach built on collaboration, equity, and sustained investment, moving beyond isolated interventions. Policymakers should integrate education, detection, diagnosis, treatment, and system strengthening, adapting to national and local contexts for long-term sustainability and equitable patient outcomes.
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86.More Students Use AI for Homework, and More Believe It Harms Critical Thinking: Selected Findings from the American Youth Panel (RAND)
The RAND American Youth Panel reveals a notable increase in students using AI for homework, rising from 48% in May 2025 to 62% in December 2025. This surge is accompanied by growing concern, with 67% of students believing AI harms critical thinking skills by late 2025. Although students widely use chatbots for tasks like brainstorming and explanations, they perceive significant ambiguity in school policies regarding AI, leading to increased worry about being accused of cheating, especially among older students. The report emphasizes the need for schools to engage students in discussions about AI's impact and establish clear, consistent guidelines for its appropriate use.
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87.Reality Checking a Major National R&D Investment in AI Trustworthiness, Safety, and Security: Weighing the Costs and Benefits of a $10 Billion Bet on Increasing the Robustness of the United States’ AI Future (RAND)
A RAND report uses break-even analysis to evaluate a hypothetical $10 billion U.S. government investment in AI trustworthiness R&D, concluding it can be justified across various plausible scenarios. The investment promises dual benefits: significantly reducing the risk of catastrophic AI incidents (estimated at $97.9 trillion in potential losses) and accelerating economic growth by fostering wider adoption of advanced AI, potentially leading to an average annual gain of $10.1 trillion. While acknowledging potential economic drag from stricter safety measures, the analysis indicates that even with these costs, a well-designed program can break even. Policymakers are urged to structure such R&D to ensure safety and innovation are complementary, viewing it as both an insurance policy and a strategic investment for technological leadership.
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88.
A RAND report concludes that the U.S. power grid will likely struggle to meet the projected energy demands of frontier AI data centers by 2030, with no single site offering perfect conditions. The study utilized a comprehensive framework to assess 22 potential sites, finding that leveraging existing infrastructure is critical for meeting power demand timelines. For example, the Rockport Power Plant site, by optimizing existing transmission and generation, showed the highest potential grid-connected capacity at 4.2 GW by 2030. Recommendations for policymakers include targeted infrastructure improvements, utilizing existing synergies, limiting natural disaster risks, and fostering community buy-in for successful AI data center development.
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89.
A RAND cost-benefit analysis on synthetic nucleic acid screening in the European Union concludes that increased screening coverage yields significant societal benefits by reducing harm from biological accidents and misuse. Mandatory EU-wide regulation is projected to deliver the largest net benefits, estimated at €4.6 billion annually, significantly surpassing voluntary or conditional approaches. This is primarily due to the non-linear effects of near-universal coverage, which generates disproportionate risk reductions through direct detection and deterrence, with every €1 spent yielding €6 in avoided losses. The findings provide a strong economic rationale for EU-level intervention, supporting mandatory screening requirements, potentially through the EU Biotech Act, while emphasizing the need for proportionate implementation to minimize disruption to legitimate research and innovation.
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90.
The RAND report, "Strategic Cooperation on AI: Core Functions," asserts that effective international cooperation is crucial for managing the global impacts of advancing AI technologies. It identifies four core cooperative functions—research, standard-setting, monitoring, and verification—as essential for improving understanding, promoting reliable AI, and mitigating harms. By analyzing how 17 existing international organizations implement these functions, the report offers practical insights into potential institutional structures and common pitfalls. This analysis aims to inform policymakers on designing robust and adaptive strategic cooperation frameworks for AI, emphasizing the need for proactive groundwork despite technological uncertainties.
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91.
The report addresses the significant methodological difficulties inherent in estimating the combined effects of multiple gun policies. It argues that current policy analysis is hampered by substantial data and measurement challenges, requiring a critical examination of existing assumptions and contemporary modeling approaches. The authors analyze the limitations of current research practices and propose specific methodological improvements. These findings imply that policymakers must adopt more rigorous research standards to develop accurate, evidence-based strategies for improving public safety through comprehensive gun policy reform.
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92.Infinite Potential—Insights from the Cyber Surprise Scenario: Post-Series Scenario Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises (RAND)
RAND's "Cyber Surprise" scenario exercises reveal that U.S. policymakers, when confronted with advanced Chinese cyber-AI capabilities and subsequent large-scale cyberattacks, tend towards aggressive countermeasures and struggle with effective allied engagement. The simulations showed participants advocating for a "use-it-or-lose-it" approach to cyber access against the PRC and grappling with information sharing and coordination with allies. The findings highlight critical needs for enhanced U.S. national preparedness, including developing domestic cyber-AI models, improving whole-of-government and public resilience to cyberattacks, and establishing clear playbooks for engaging adversaries and allies in future AI-driven cyber crises.
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93.
The report introduces a unified typology of 20 economic shocks across five domains to help analysts understand and anticipate macroeconomic recessions as complex, compound events. By examining the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors demonstrate how the interaction of exogenous disturbances and endogenous policy responses determines the recovery's trajectory. This analytical framework moves beyond traditional siloed approaches, providing a structured method for modeling the cascading effects of financial, environmental, and demand-side disruptions. Consequently, it serves as a critical resource for policymakers to improve real-time situational awareness and calibrate stabilization efforts more effectively during multi-faceted crises.
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94.The Defense Contract Management Agency's Resource Workload Model Ecosystem: A Basis for Enhanced Warfighter Support (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Defense Contract Management Agency’s (DCMA) Integrated Resource Workload Model (IRWM), concluding that while it is a robust tool for aggregate manpower planning, it requires significant refinements to better reflect operational realities. Based on over 225 interviews and an in-depth review of the model's structure, researchers identified discrepancies between modeled estimates and actual field activities, often stemming from insufficient documentation, unmodeled supervisory tasks, and user-unfriendly data entry systems. To maximize the model's utility, the report recommends formalizing standard operating procedures, improving internal communication to build trust, and leveraging the modeling ecosystem for strategic scenario planning regarding budget and mission shifts.
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95.Improving Diffusion of Clinical Care Innovations in Public Health Emergencies: 5 Things Influential Emergency Department Clinicians on Digital Media Can Do (RAND)
This RAND report outlines five strategic actions for influential emergency department clinicians on digital media to enhance the rapid and effective diffusion of clinical care innovations during public health emergencies. Drawing on a four-year study of the COVID-19 pandemic—including focus groups, interviews, and surveys of over 1,600 healthcare professionals—the researchers emphasize the necessity of transparency, collaborative partnerships with medical societies, and multimedia "how-to" content. Implementing these strategies aims to mitigate the uneven adoption of medical advancements and ensure a more synchronized, evidence-based healthcare response to future crises.
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96.Improving Diffusion of Clinical Care Innovations in Public Health Emergencies: 6 Things Frontline Emergency Department Clinicians Can Do (RAND)
Frontline emergency department (ED) clinicians can play a pivotal role in accelerating the adoption of clinical innovations and retiring ineffective practices during public health emergencies by engaging in proactive networking and evidence-sharing. This RAND study, based on a four-year analysis of COVID-19 responses including surveys of over 1,600 healthcare professionals, identifies six specific strategies across pre-emergency and active-emergency phases. To bolster future pandemic resilience, health systems and policymakers must support clinician-led initiatives such as interprofessional information networks and bedside evidence-informed decision-making tools to ensure more agile and equitable care delivery.
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97.Improving Diffusion of Clinical Care Innovations in Public Health Emergencies: 5 Things Emergency Department and Health System Leaders Can Do (RAND)
This RAND report identifies five key strategies for health system and emergency department leaders to accelerate the adoption of clinical care innovations during public health emergencies. Drawing on focus groups and a nationwide survey of over 1,600 clinicians, the study found that innovation diffusion was often uneven and outpaced by the COVID-19 pandemic’s spread. Strategic recommendations include establishing pre-emergency communication networks, creating dedicated teams for 'living' evidence-based guidance, and utilizing real-time dashboards to monitor operating conditions. These actions aim to bridge the gap between emerging evidence and frontline practice, ensuring that health systems can rapidly implement effective treatments while discontinuing harmful ones during future crises.
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98.Assessing the Practical Feasibility of the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse Quantum Algorithm for Calculating Radar Cross Sections (RAND)
This RAND report evaluates the Clader-Jacobs-Sprouse (CJS) quantum algorithm for calculating radar cross sections (RCS), finding that while it offers a theoretical exponential speedup over classical methods, it faces massive practical implementation hurdles. Quantitative estimates indicate that the computational resources required for even simple 2D models would currently result in runtimes exceeding the age of the universe on projected hardware, largely due to bottlenecks in Hamiltonian simulation and the overhead of quantum oracles. Consequently, quantum-driven breakthroughs in stealth aircraft design are unlikely in the near term, though policymakers should monitor advancements in unrelated fields like drug discovery that could eventually improve the underlying quantum subroutines.
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99.
A RAND survey of over 10,000 U.S. adults reveals that while broad support for legalizing psychedelics remains low compared to cannabis, there is significant public backing for their use in controlled medical and therapeutic settings. The study found that 23% support legal psilocybin use, with nearly half of respondents endorsing supervised administration at medical facilities to address specific health conditions. These findings suggest that public opinion is currently more aligned with medicalized models rather than open retail markets or personal cultivation. For policymakers, this indicates that legislative efforts focusing on supervised therapeutic access are likely to receive more public support than broader legalization frameworks.
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100.Decisive Economic Advantage: Modeling the Transition from Temporary First-Mover Leads to Economic Dominance in Artificial General Intelligence (RAND)
This RAND report introduces the concept of Decisive Economic Advantage (DEA), a state where early leads in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) become permanent dominance through self-reinforcing feedback loops between technological capability, economic deployment, and capital reinvestment. Using a dynamic economic model and Monte Carlo simulations, the author identifies two primary pathways to dominance: 'frontier-driven' intelligence explosions and 'accumulation-driven' reinvestment moats that can occur even without recursive self-improvement. The findings suggest that strategic intervention leverage decays rapidly as asymmetries widen, implying that policymakers must prioritize early detection of regime shifts and tailor responses—such as export controls or ecosystem containment—to the specific growth mechanism involved.
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101.Managing Systemic Supply Chain Risk to the U.S. Economy from Trade Concentration and Geopolitical Conflict: The Roles of Insurance and Other Hedging Strategies (RAND)
This RAND report argues that systemic supply chain risks from geopolitical conflict are significant and underappreciated, particularly in sectors like nonferrous metals and electrical components sourced from countries such as Brazil and India. The authors find that private insurance is ill-suited for managing these correlated, large-scale risks, while government interventions often lack necessary market-sensing mechanisms to prevent unsustainable private practices. To enhance resilience, the report recommends that the U.S. government track conflict-dependency overlaps and that industries adopt 'Til Needed' hedging options—private contracts for surge capacity—to bridge the gap between market incentives and national economic security.
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102.Export Controls on Artificial Intelligence and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems: Interagency Challenges (RAND)
This RAND report argues that current U.S. export controls for AI and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) are lagging behind rapid technological advancements and require a more agile, data-centric interagency approach. The study finds that the U.S. no longer maintains a technological monopoly, meaning overly restrictive controls risk hollowing out the domestic industrial base and driving global partners toward Chinese alternatives. Consequently, the authors recommend shifting regulatory focus toward specialized military training data rather than ubiquitous hardware, while calling for increased funding and technical expertise for the Bureau of Industry and Security.
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103.
This RAND report evaluates the 2023 overhaul of the U.S. Air Force’s performance evaluation systems, finding that while the transition to narrative formats and major performance areas has improved clarity, it has created new challenges for promotion boards in differentiating between top performers. Based on surveys of over 10,000 airmen and interviews with talent management stakeholders, the study identifies widespread confusion regarding new stratification policies and significant technical frustrations with the 'myEval 2.0' interface. The report recommends that the Air Force provide more robust writing guidance and explore ways to reintegrate quantitative indicators to ensure the system effectively supports long-term talent management and career development. Ultimately, successful refinement of these processes is critical for maintaining a meritocratic promotion system and aligning personnel development with core organizational values.
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104.Developing a Risk-Scoring Tool for Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Biological Design: A Method to Assess the Risks of Using Artificial Intelligence to Modify Select Viral Capabilities (RAND)
RAND developed a dual-axis risk-scoring tool to evaluate the biosecurity threats posed by AI-enabled biological design, focusing on five critical viral functions such as host range and transmission dynamics. The framework assesses both the potential severity of biological modifications and the technical capability required by actors, specifically measuring the 'uplift' that advancing AI provides to lower-skilled individuals. Researchers concluded that as AI tools become more accessible, the technical barriers to engineering dangerous pathogens will continue to decrease, necessitating new oversight mechanisms. Consequently, the report proposes using this scoring system as a foundation for establishing regulatory redlines and federal funding requirements to manage AI-driven biological risks without stifling innovation.
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105.
This RAND report argues that the U.S. worker protection system remains fundamentally tied to traditional employer-employee relationships, creating significant security gaps for the 10-20% of the workforce engaged in nonstandard work like gig employment and independent contracting. Using a taxonomy of risks—unfair practices, work-related injuries, and life costs—the authors demonstrate how current classification rules systematically exclude freelancers from essential social insurance and employer-provided benefits. To address these inequities, the study recommends decoupling protections from specific employers through portable benefit systems and universal coverage mandates. Such reforms are increasingly critical as technological shifts and AI further disrupt traditional labor models and worker-firm dependencies.
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106.Manpower Analysis to Improve the Functional Alignment and Organizational Structure of Space Training and Readiness Command Headquarters (RAND)
A RAND analysis finds that the U.S. Space Force’s STARCOM headquarters is significantly understaffed, requiring nearly double its current personnel to effectively manage its workload and mission priorities. The study identifies core organizational friction stemming from a lack of unity of effort, structural tensions between lean design and command needs, and resource strain caused by simultaneous start-up and steady-state functions. Researchers recommend implementing a new staffing optimization model (STAR-SOM) and realigning leadership under senior authorities to better synchronize guardian development and combat credibility missions. These findings imply that STARCOM must pursue both a quantitative manpower increase and a qualitative structural reorganization to maintain readiness for near-peer space competition.
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107.
This report analyzes the evolving demographics and welfare needs of the Royal Navy and Royal Marines (RN&RM) community, projecting a stable Regular force of approximately 33,000 through 2040 despite a more volatile strategic environment. It finds that increasing operational tempo and unpredictable deployments are placing significant strain on families, evidenced by high levels of partner loneliness and chronic childcare accessibility issues. The study suggests that the Naval welfare sector must modernize its support by adopting holistic, 'whole force' approaches that mitigate mental health stigma and address structural barriers to partner employment to ensure long-term recruitment and retention.
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108.
This report describes eight frontier large language model (LLM) agents on their ability to design DNA segments, interact with a benchtop DNA synthesizer, and generate laboratory protocols. These are dual-use tasks, explored as potential technical bottlenecks to a malicious actor building a viral pathogen that could be weaponized. Performance varied among the models, but all tested LLMs designed biologically coherent DNA segments in some attempts.
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109.Analysis of West Virginia’s State School Aid Funding Formula: Recommendations to Enhance Adequacy, Fairness, and Efficiency of State Funding for Education (RAND)
This report, prepared for the West Virginia House of Delegates, is intended to provide an independent, holistic assessment of the state’s school aid funding formula and to identify opportunities for improvements in the state’s funding strategy. The authors use a combination of prior research on funding issues, benchmarks and examples from funding formulas nationwide, and analysis of state and national data sets to inform their recommendations.