The article posits that the global order is transitioning from a rules-based system to a 'personalist' one, where geopolitical outcomes are increasingly dictated by the unpredictable whims, personal interests, and unilateral actions of powerful leaders or states. Evidence suggests that established international law and institutions are often superseded by personal grievances or strategic objectives, as illustrated by the volatile nature of interventions in sovereign nations. For policy, this implies that traditional diplomatic strategies relying on multilateral treaties are insufficient; states must develop adaptive strategies that account for high levels of leader-driven unpredictability and the erosion of institutional norms.
2026-W05
This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.
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The article argues that the existing post-Cold War, rules-based international trade order is overly rigid and requires fundamental disruption. It frames recent trade disruptions, exemplified by the Trump administration, not as mere chaos, but as a necessary corrective force to global economic principles. The piece contrasts this current instability with the historical trend of U.S. support for free trade through initiatives like GATT. Policymakers must therefore prepare for a significant strategic shift away from the established consensus on global trade rules and toward a more flexible, revised system.
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European leaders and Canada convened a 'coalition of the willing' summit to establish security guarantees for Ukraine amidst ongoing Russian assaults. The primary finding is the commitment to forming a multinational European-led force, comprising land and sea components, designed for deployment should a ceasefire be reached. While hailed as a breakthrough, the outcome is noted as a repetition of previous commitments, suggesting a predictable, albeit detailed, path toward collective security. Strategically, this indicates a sustained, multilateral European effort to manage the conflict's aftermath and deter future aggression.
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The article frames the geopolitical landscape as one defined by deep uncertainty regarding Artificial Intelligence. Key debates revolve around whether AI will lead to sudden superintelligence or gradual productivity gains, and whether technological breakthroughs can be easily replicated by rivals. This uncertainty, coupled with the intense focus on the US-China technological race, suggests that the competitive dynamics are highly volatile. Policymakers must therefore prepare for a rapidly evolving and contested technological environment, recognizing that the speed and nature of AI adoption will fundamentally reshape global power structures.
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The article analyzes the highly volatile and unpredictable nature of U.S. involvement in Greenland. Key evidence centers on President Trump's conflicting public statements, which oscillate between suggesting a negotiated 'future deal' with NATO and threatening unilateral seizure or the use of military force. This erratic rhetoric significantly complicates European diplomatic efforts and suggests that the U.S. approach lacks stable strategic coordination. Consequently, the region faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty, requiring careful monitoring of potential unilateral actions that could disrupt established international partnerships.
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China's economic statecraft is proving highly effective, primarily by capitalizing on the protectionist and volatile foreign economic policies of the United States. Beijing employs a sophisticated 'carrot and stick' strategy, using advanced export controls against rivals while simultaneously offering attractive development financing and cheap goods to the Global South. This dual approach is successfully embedding many developing nations into Chinese-dominated supply chains, as seen in critical sectors like nickel and EVs. Consequently, China gains significant global leverage, enabling it to advance its domestic and foreign policies with minimal international opposition, posing a growing challenge to Western economic influence.
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The article argues that despite current political rhetoric favoring minimal government intervention, the historical reality of U.S. economic growth has been driven by active state support of emerging industries. It contrasts the limited-government 'Jeffersonian' ideal with the historically accurate 'Hamiltonian' model of state investment. Key evidence cited includes the Department of Defense's foundational funding of research that led to the Internet, demonstrating government's role in driving major technological advancements. The policy implication is that policymakers must adopt a proactive industrial strategy, recognizing that strategic government investment is necessary to maintain national competitiveness and drive innovation.
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The analysis argues that the current international order, which fueled Western prosperity, is fundamentally built upon hypocrisy. Key evidence points to Western nations selectively applying liberal ideals, free trade principles, and international law, often exempting themselves from the very rules they champion. This selective adherence has created a significant gap between Western rhetoric and global reality. Consequently, the global community is increasingly recognizing and criticizing this hypocrisy, which challenges the legitimacy and sustainability of the established rules-based international system.
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The analysis identifies the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan as the most critical flashpoint in South Asia, surpassing the immediate threat posed by India-Pakistan tensions. Pakistan accuses the Taliban regime of harboring militant groups, particularly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which continues to launch cross-border attacks. This persistent, simmering conflict threatens regional stability and has damaging consequences for the wider area. Policymakers must address this cross-border security issue, as the failure to stabilize the Afghan-Pakistani relationship risks escalating regional violence.
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Beijing views the current U.S. policy toward China as a moment of strategic flux and opportunity, capitalizing on perceived inconsistency in Washington's approach. China is actively shifting from a reactive to an offensive posture, using economic tools like rare-earth controls and exerting pressure on U.S. allies to strengthen its global standing. Furthermore, the U.S.'s increased focus on the Western Hemisphere and Latin America is interpreted by Beijing as a strategic distraction, allowing China to dedicate greater resources and attention to the Indo-Pacific. Policymakers must recognize that this enduring rivalry persists despite short-term policy shifts, requiring a nuanced strategy that addresses China's proactive regional ambitions.
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Xi Jinping has launched a sweeping purge targeting the highest echelons of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership. The investigation of top officers for "violations of party discipline" signals a profound political restructuring, far exceeding routine anti-corruption efforts. This move centralizes ultimate authority within the PLA directly under Xi's personal control, eliminating potential institutional resistance among the military elite. Strategically, this consolidation of power solidifies Xi's grip on the state apparatus and fundamentally reshapes China's internal power dynamics and military command structure.
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Japan's declaration that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat, potentially warranting a military response, has significantly escalated tensions with Beijing. China responded by implementing immediate countermeasures, including increased military exercises near Japan, halting seafood imports, and banning dual-use goods exports. This escalating confrontation demonstrates that Japan's security posture is directly challenging China's interests, creating a volatile strategic environment. Consequently, the article suggests that Japan cannot manage this complex geopolitical and economic threat independently and must rely heavily on international alliances and partnerships for deterrence and stability.
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The article argues that the U.S. has a historic opportunity to fundamentally reshape the standoff with Iran, particularly if Donald Trump returns to office. This leverage is based on Iran's current vulnerabilities, including an economy suffering from sanctions and mismanagement, and a significantly weakened regional proxy network following recent conflicts. Coupled with mounting public resentment within the Islamic Republic, Washington is positioned to exert considerable influence. Strategically, the U.S. should capitalize on these weaknesses to achieve a profound transformation in the geopolitical relationship with Tehran.
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14.Analysis of West Virginia’s State School Aid Funding Formula: Recommendations to Enhance Adequacy, Fairness, and Efficiency of State Funding for Education (RAND)
This report, prepared for the West Virginia House of Delegates, is intended to provide an independent, holistic assessment of the state’s school aid funding formula and to identify opportunities for improvements in the state’s funding strategy. The authors use a combination of prior research on funding issues, benchmarks and examples from funding formulas nationwide, and analysis of state and national data sets to inform their recommendations.