The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Case for Upending World Trade
English Summary
The article argues that the existing post-Cold War, rules-based international trade order is overly rigid and requires fundamental disruption. It frames recent trade disruptions, exemplified by the Trump administration, not as mere chaos, but as a necessary corrective force to global economic principles. The piece contrasts this current instability with the historical trend of U.S. support for free trade through initiatives like GATT. Policymakers must therefore prepare for a significant strategic shift away from the established consensus on global trade rules and toward a more flexible, revised system.
中文摘要
本文論述現行冷戰後、基於規則的國際貿易秩序過於僵化，亟需進行根本性的顛覆。文章將近期貿易動盪，以川普政府時期為例，視為全球經濟原則所必需的糾正力量，而非單純的混亂。該文將當前的不穩定性，與美國歷史上透過《關稅與貿易總協定》（GATT）等倡議支持自由貿易的趨勢進行了對比。因此，政策制定者必須為一場重大的戰略轉移做好準備，即從既定的全球貿易規則共識，轉向一個更具彈性、經過修訂的體系。
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