The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Personalist Global Order
English Summary
The article posits that the global order is transitioning from a rules-based system to a 'personalist' one, where geopolitical outcomes are increasingly dictated by the unpredictable whims, personal interests, and unilateral actions of powerful leaders or states. Evidence suggests that established international law and institutions are often superseded by personal grievances or strategic objectives, as illustrated by the volatile nature of interventions in sovereign nations. For policy, this implies that traditional diplomatic strategies relying on multilateral treaties are insufficient; states must develop adaptive strategies that account for high levels of leader-driven unpredictability and the erosion of institutional norms.
中文摘要
本文提出，全球秩序正從基於規則的體系轉向「個人化」的體系。在這種新秩序下，地緣政治的結果越來越多地由強大領導人或國家不可預測的個人意願、私利和單邊行動所決定。證據顯示，既有的國際法和機構經常被個人恩怨或戰略目標所凌駕，這可以從干預主權國家的動盪行為中體現。因此，在政策層面，這意味著傳統依賴多邊條約的外交策略已不足夠；各國必須制定適應性策略，以應對高程度的領導人驅動的不確定性，以及制度規範的持續侵蝕。
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