The Brookings analysis posits that President Sheinbaum's ability to navigate Mexico's future hinges on her handling of complex bilateral and domestic pressures. Key challenges include intense anti-crime demands and potential military intervention from the United States, alongside domestic political fractures and the impending review of the USMCA trade agreement. The administration's success in managing these security and economic dynamics is critical, as the outcome will have profound consequences for the geopolitical and economic stability of North America.
Americas
This topic hub groups ThinkTankWeekly entries tagged Americas and links readers back to the original publishers.
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that the 2026 primary season serves as a critical barometer for internal party cohesion, determining the political landscape for the 2028 presidential cycle. Key evidence highlights the Republican struggle between the MAGA wing and traditional conservatives, testing the limits of Trump's influence in various state primaries. Simultaneously, the Democratic party is grappling with tensions between its moderate and progressive factions, as seen in recent special and state elections. Ultimately, the success or failure of these intraparty battles will dictate the platforms and candidates that enter the general election, signaling whether the parties can unify or if deep divisions will jeopardize their electoral viability.
-
3.
The U.S.-Mexico relationship is facing significant strain due to growing skepticism in Mexico regarding U.S. reliability and political predictability. This distrust is fueled by volatile U.S. policy swings, aggressive trade tactics, and persistent concerns over potential unilateral military actions. While deep economic and security cooperation remains essential (e.g., USMCA review, drug trafficking), Mexico's increasing doubt suggests that future bilateral efforts will require Washington to demonstrate greater stability and transparency. Failure to stabilize the political climate risks undermining established cooperation and complicates regional governance.
-
4.
The article argues that traditional, brute-force anti-cartel strategies are ineffective and often backfire, empowering criminal groups rather than eliminating them. Instead, the U.S. should adopt a policy of "conditional repression," which involves setting clear red lines and applying severe pressure only when cartels cross them (e.g., through fentanyl trafficking or violence). This targeted approach aims to coerce cartels into reducing their most pernicious harms—such as extortion and environmental damage—while minimizing collateral damage. The U.S. should lead this shift, encouraging Latin American partners to adopt similar conditional strategies to stabilize the region.
-
5.
The indictment of a sitting Sinaloa Governor by the U.S. Department of Justice for alleged cartel ties marks a significant shift in U.S.-Mexico relations, effectively linking security cooperation to economic integration under USMCA. For years, the U.S. has pressured Mexico to dismantle the nexus between criminal organizations and political structures, escalating from fentanyl enforcement to targeting high-level officials. This indictment, occurring just before the USMCA review, signals that security performance is now a prerequisite for continued trade benefits and potentially foreshadows unilateral U.S. action if Mexico fails to adequately address corruption and cartel influence. The situation presents a complex challenge for the Sheinbaum administration, caught between U.S. pressure and internal political considerations.
-
6.
U.S. forces conducted multiple strikes against suspected narcotics trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, resulting in at least five deaths as part of Operation Southern Spear. These strikes were justified based on intelligence confirming the vessels' involvement in drug trafficking, though the GAO notes fentanyl primarily enters via land routes. The ongoing operation, which has seen 57 strikes since September 2025, highlights a continued U.S. military response to drug trafficking despite a reduced naval presence in the region. This strategy raises questions about the effectiveness of direct military action versus addressing upstream supply chains and land border security.
-
7.Force Multipliers in the Americas: Harnessing Security Force Assistance to Bolster Homeland Defense and U.S. Strategic Objectives in Latin America (RAND)
This RAND report, published in 2026, argues that the U.S. Department of War can effectively leverage security force assistance (SFA) activities in Latin America to bolster homeland defense, counter transnational threats, and advance U.S. strategic influence. The report highlights the increasing convergence of threats from state adversaries and non-state actors, emphasizing the need for innovative SFA approaches, particularly utilizing the Army Security Cooperation Group—South and National Guard State Partnership Programs. Ultimately, the report suggests that targeted SFA can be a cost-effective tool for addressing regional challenges and countering Chinese influence.
-
8.
The article argues that Virginia Democrats are engaging in extreme partisan actions, notably through gerrymandering, to consolidate political power within wealthy Northern Virginia suburbs. Key evidence cited includes the proposed district map's bias toward elite areas, alongside controversies regarding local policies on gender identity, the handling of alleged assaults by illegal aliens, and legislative efforts to restrict law enforcement cooperation in deportations. The piece concludes that these actions represent a systemic threat to the rule of law and public safety, serving as a warning intended to mobilize conservative voters for upcoming state and national elections.
-
9.
The article argues that the fear surrounding a temporary lapse of FISA Section 702—the 'going dark' myth—is largely unfounded. Intelligence collection can continue through multiple alternative authorities, including Executive Order 12333, traditional Title I warrants, and existing FISC certifications, even if the statute lapses. Furthermore, the Attorney General retains emergency surveillance powers, ensuring continuity of operations. While the lapse wouldn't immediately halt intelligence gathering, the primary policy focus must remain on reforming Section 702 to mandate probable cause before the FBI searches Americans' digital data.
-
10.
Mexico is at a critical juncture under President Sheinbaum, who is driving significant internal reforms across governance, the rule of law, and democratic institutions. Externally, Mexico's relationship with the United States is becoming increasingly complex, characterized by deepening cooperation in trade, migration, and security alongside rising tensions over sovereignty and democratic standards. The central strategic challenge is how Sheinbaum will navigate these competing pressures. Mexico's internal political trajectory and foreign policy signals are thus crucial, as they will define the stability of US-Mexico relations and influence broader regional stability in the years ahead.
-
11.
The article argues that the recent 'Iran War' represents a 'post-deliberative' conflict, characterized by the near-total failure of Congress and the mainstream media to sustain robust public debate on the choice between war and peace. Key evidence cited is the lack of meaningful congressional deliberation or votes before the conflict, contrasting sharply with previous, albeit flawed, instances of military authorization. The implications are dire: this trend of congressional abdication and media passivity reinforces the 'imperial presidency,' necessitating sustained voter engagement and political pressure to restore constitutional oversight of executive military power.
-
12.
The Brookings analysis finds that while Virginia may represent the final major mid-decade redistricting battle, the struggle for political control remains highly volatile and legally complex. Key uncertainty stems from ongoing state-level map drawing efforts and, more critically, the Supreme Court case *Louisiana v. Callais*, which could dismantle sections of the Voting Rights Act and dramatically shift congressional power. The implication is that the US political landscape is highly unstable, suggesting that the combination of thin congressional margins and potential voting rights erosion could usher in a new, contentious era of continuous redistricting battles.
-
13.
The U.S. military's future focus in the Western Hemisphere is shifting from great power competition to combating transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), drug trafficking, and narco-terrorism. This pivot is evidenced by recent threat assessments that prioritize illicit border actors over state rivals, leading to increased joint military operations and intelligence sharing with regional allies. Strategically, the U.S. will continue to deepen military cooperation through joint training and counter-cartel campaigns. However, the article cautions that sustained success requires coupling these security efforts with broader diplomatic and economic initiatives to address local concerns regarding sovereignty and human rights.
-
14.An immigration slowdown led to widespread declines in population growth in America’s major metro areas (Brookings)
The Brookings analysis finds that widespread declines in international immigration are causing significant demographic slowdowns and population losses across nearly all of America’s major metro areas. Evidence shows that since major metro areas rely heavily on net international migration for growth, recent sharp drops in immigrant numbers—affecting all 56 major metros—are the primary driver behind reduced population gains or outright declines. If current immigration trends persist, these urban cores must prepare for severe demographic slowdowns, which will inevitably lead to further workforce contraction and economic stagnation. Policymakers must therefore address immigration policy to stabilize the population base and maintain the economic vitality of the nation's largest urban centers.
-
15.
The analysis concludes that the Trump administration has implemented policies that have cut legal immigration flows at a rate significantly higher (estimated 2.5 times) than the reduction in illegal entries. Key evidence includes massive declines across legal categories, such as asylum seekers (99.9% drop), refugees (90% drop), and family/student visas, driven by visa bans and new fees. These sweeping cuts are projected to harm US citizens seeking to reunite with relatives and undermine national economic stability. Strategically, the report argues that the administration's agenda is not merely focused on curbing 'illegal' immigration, but represents a broader, systematic restriction on all types of immigration.
-
16.
Special elections serve as reliable indicators of midterm trends, suggesting a favorable political momentum for Democrats. Evidence shows that Democrats have significantly outperformed Republicans in recent special elections and off-year contests, a trend attributed to declining presidential approval ratings and voter frustration over high prices. Strategically, this suggests a strong midterm outlook for the Democratic party. However, the analysis warns that the combination of a negative campaign environment and the difficulty of motivating the Republican base without the former president could lead to an exceptionally negative and volatile election cycle for both parties.
-
17.
The unusually high number of House members announcing retirement signals deep institutional frustration with Congress, suggesting the decline of federal service's appeal beyond mere midterm election anxiety. Key evidence includes 56 retirements, predominantly from Republicans, who cite factors like gridlock and a "toxic partisan atmosphere" as reasons for leaving. Furthermore, many retirees are bypassing traditional federal paths to seek state or local offices, indicating a shift in legislative focus. Strategically, this suggests a potential period of institutional instability and a significant influx of new, potentially less experienced members into Congress next year.
-
18.
The core argument presented is that the United States is currently experiencing a state of "superpower suicide," a decline that is largely self-inflicted rather than purely structural. This systemic weakening is evidenced by the erosion of institutional integrity across multiple domains, including education, research, and adherence to democratic norms. The analysis stresses that the fundamental problem is the loss of a unified ideology of the American state, which is being treated by some actors as merely a prestige or profit-making enterprise. For the US to reverse this decline, policy must focus on restoring institutional stability, reaffirming democratic processes, and establishing a shared, unifying vision of the American state.
-
19.Democratic elections in Venezuela won’t happen overnight – here’s the groundwork that’s needed first (Chatham House)
The Chatham House analysis argues that achieving credible democratic elections in Venezuela requires extensive preparatory groundwork, rather than immediate scheduling. This urgency stems from the deep politicization and degradation of key institutions, including the judiciary and security services, under previous regimes. To establish a viable democratic path, the report recommends urgent, coordinated reforms and preparatory negotiations. These efforts must involve the interim government, the domestic opposition, civil society, and critically, international stakeholders such as the United States.
-
20.
The attempted shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner underscores the persistent threat of political violence against democratic institutions. Global leaders and domestic politicians from various parties issued strong condemnations, providing evidence that the threat is systemic and bipartisan. Policy-wise, the consensus among leaders suggests that a unified political front is crucial to counter the erosion of civil liberties and maintain democratic stability in the Americas.
-
21.America’s Rural Future: Mississippi Delta site visits underscore trusted local leadership, access to capital, and institutional innovation and capacity as critical to rural development (Brookings)
The Brookings Commission argues that while rural communities, exemplified by the Mississippi Delta, possess strong local leadership and resilience, their development is critically constrained by structural barriers and long-term federal disinvestment. Evidence shows that local success is driven by trusted, community-based institutions and local ingenuity, which successfully bridge gaps left by fragmented and overly complex federal funding programs. Policymakers must therefore shift away from standardized, one-size-fits-all federal models toward flexible, localized strategies that simplify access to capital, provide technical assistance, and empower community-led institutions.
-
22.
This article details the evolution of a career in human rights advocacy, arguing that when domestic judicial systems fail, international law and mechanisms must be mobilized to protect citizens. Drawing from personal experience under military dictatorship, the author emphasizes that effective advocacy requires rigorous, impartial documentation of abuses, regardless of the perpetrator's political ideology. Key strategies include building bipartisan international support (e.g., in the U.S. Congress) and establishing specialized NGOs to push for the evolution of global legal definitions, such as those concerning torture. For policy, the findings underscore the critical need for sustained support of independent civil society groups and international legal frameworks to prevent state-sponsored abuses and maintain democratic accountability.
-
23.Members’ question time: Will the regime in Cuba be able to survive the current crisis? (Chatham House)
Cuba is currently experiencing a severe, multi-faceted crisis marked by economic collapse, acute shortages, and sustained outward migration, placing immense strain on the regime. The analysis posits that the regime's resilience is being tested by a combination of internal pressures and the ongoing constraints of the US embargo. The discussion will examine how the Cuban state is coping with these mounting pressures, paying close attention to the varying roles of external actors, including the US, China, Russia, and Europe. Ultimately, the report aims to assess the geopolitical risks for both the Cuban population and US interests, highlighting the complexity of external intervention.
-
24.
Argentina's deregulation of satellite internet access, initiated by the Milei administration, has led to an explosive increase in connectivity, bringing services like Starlink to millions of previously isolated citizens. Key evidence shows that this liberalization has immediately boosted sectors such as mining, energy, tourism, and precision agriculture, proving that high-cost internet access was previously a regulatory bottleneck. This case serves as a model for how targeted deregulation can dismantle regulatory rents held by special interests, suggesting that deep economic liberalization is a powerful engine for broad national development and efficiency.
-
25.
The article argues that invoking the 25th Amendment to remove a president due to poor judgment or rhetoric is an unapt, antidemocratic, and politically difficult solution. Instead of relying on this constitutional backstop, the author suggests Congress should utilize its existing legislative powers to constrain a rogue executive. Policy strategies should focus on strengthening the Senate's role in vetting nominations, leveraging the House's impeachment power, and using annual funding bills to limit executive overreach. Ultimately, the piece warns that the true policy failure is Congress's continued tendency to delegate too much power to the executive branch.
-
26.Nevada v. Lara Brief: Police Cannot Escape State Laws by Handing Asset Forfeiture Cases to the Feds (CATO)
The brief argues that federal 'equitable sharing' asset forfeiture programs threaten state sovereignty by allowing federal prosecutors to adopt state cases while bypassing established state safeguards. This system effectively turns law enforcement into a revenue stream, as demonstrated by attempts to seize personal assets without full state legislative buy-in. The core finding is that federal adoption of state forfeiture actions undermines state law and compromises constitutional property rights, challenging the principles of federalism. Policy-wise, this highlights a critical tension where federal overreach in law enforcement funding compromises the ability of states to govern their own officers and legal practices.
-
27.
Peru continues to exhibit extreme political volatility, having cycled through eight presidents in the last decade due to a 'presidential curse.' This instability is driven by chronic political clashes, frequent corruption scandals (such as Odebrecht and Rolexgate), and the routine use of impeachment proceedings citing 'moral incapacity.' The rapid turnover of leaders undermines institutional stability and governance predictability. For external actors, this suggests a high-risk operating environment, necessitating careful monitoring of internal political dynamics and potential disruptions to regional stability.
-
28.
The Trump administration's 'Donroe Doctrine' seeks to displace Chinese economic influence from the Western Hemisphere through pressure and threats, but this approach alone will fail without providing attractive economic alternatives. China has grown its trade relationships with Latin America from nearly zero to $500 billion annually and now dominates infrastructure, financing, and consumer goods markets. To succeed, the US must leverage expanded financing from the Development Finance Corporation, Export-Import Bank, and multilateral development banks to make US companies competitive, while also promoting transparency, standards-setting, and strategic partnerships. The US should focus on sectors like AI, telecommunications, and infrastructure where private companies can profit while advancing national security interests. Without economic incentives and investment support, the Donroe Doctrine risks failing to counter Chinese influence in the region.
-
29.
The article argues that US involvement in Venezuela risks becoming a geopolitical quagmire, necessitating a careful reassessment of intervention strategies. It frames the current situation by contrasting it with the 2003 Iraq War, noting that while the US legacy is tied to Venezuela, the circumstances are fundamentally different from the large-scale, coalition-backed invasion of Iraq. The key reasoning highlights the need to distinguish between the legal and military precedents of past interventions and the current, complex political landscape. Policymakers must therefore adopt a nuanced approach to avoid repeating costly and destabilizing foreign military engagements.
-
30.
The article argues that Russia's role as a global patron is increasingly compromised by external geopolitical pressures, suggesting that Moscow's strategic support for allied states is vulnerable to intervention. Using the alleged U.S. operation against Venezuela as a primary example, the analysis highlights how Western powers exploit or undermine Russia's client relationships, thereby diminishing Russia's influence. For policy makers, this suggests that Russia must adapt its diplomatic strategy, moving beyond traditional patronage models to build more resilient, decentralized alliances that can withstand overt foreign aggression. Ultimately, the findings imply that Russia's global strategy requires a fundamental shift to counter perceived Western encroachment and maintain strategic autonomy.
-
31.
This speculative article explores a plausible, yet non-inevitable, scenario detailing how Greenland could fall under American influence by 2028. The core argument suggests that this 'Americanization' would not be achieved through overt military force or formal purchase, but rather through subtle, deliberate political maneuvering within the complex corridors of Arctic geopolitics. The piece serves as a geopolitical warning, cautioning policymakers about the risks of non-military, shadow-play influence that could undermine national sovereignty. It implies that proactive diplomatic and strategic efforts are necessary to prevent such a potentially disastrous outcome.
-
32.
The article argues that contemporary U.S. foreign policy is exhibiting cyclical, heavy-handed interventionist tendencies, suggesting a return to an 'imperial' era. This finding is supported by drawing historical parallels between recent U.S. interventions (such as in Venezuela) and the established pattern of U.S. involvement in Latin America since the Spanish-American War (1898). The key implication is that the U.S. must critically reassess its interventionist doctrine, as its current approach risks repeating historical mistakes and undermining regional stability in the Americas.
-
33.
This analysis examines the origins and far-reaching consequences of the US raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3. The incident, which resulted in significant casualties among Venezuelan and Cuban personnel, serves as the central case study for understanding the current instability. The article argues that the implications of this operation extend far beyond Venezuela, fundamentally impacting regional stability, US foreign policy, and the broader global order. Policymakers must consider the geopolitical ripple effects of such interventions when formulating strategies for the Americas.
-
34.
The article reports on the sudden and decisive capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, marking a dramatic shift in Venezuelan political stability. Previously viewed as an expert in authoritarian survival, Maduro's swift arrest in his bunker suggests that the regime's internal resilience was significantly overestimated. This rapid military success fundamentally alters the regional power balance and signals the immediate collapse of the Maduro government. Policymakers must now adjust strategic planning for the Caribbean basin, anticipating a period of profound political and economic transition.
-
35.
The article argues that any potential military removal of Venezuelan President Maduro, while appearing to be a major tactical success for the U.S., does not represent the resolution of the country's crisis. It cautions that this event marks merely the 'end of the beginning,' signaling the start of a far more complex and perilous phase of intervention. The perceived finality of the situation is misleading, suggesting that U.S. policy must prepare for a prolonged and difficult struggle rather than celebrating a simple victory. Policymakers should anticipate sustained, high-difficulty engagement in the Western Hemisphere.
-
36.
The publication outlines a dramatic, hypothetical scenario where the U.S. executes a military strike on Caracas, successfully seizing and extracting President Maduro and his wife. This action, coupled with federal drug and weapons charges in New York, signifies a major shift in regional power dynamics and the culmination of sustained U.S. pressure. The article emphasizes the U.S. commitment to continued intervention, citing the President's willingness to attack again and indefinitely "run the country." Policy implications suggest that the U.S. is prepared to maintain a deep, military-backed political presence to restructure Venezuela's governance.