The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How America Can Coerce the Cartels
English Summary
The article argues that traditional, brute-force anti-cartel strategies are ineffective and often backfire, empowering criminal groups rather than eliminating them. Instead, the U.S. should adopt a policy of "conditional repression," which involves setting clear red lines and applying severe pressure only when cartels cross them (e.g., through fentanyl trafficking or violence). This targeted approach aims to coerce cartels into reducing their most pernicious harms—such as extortion and environmental damage—while minimizing collateral damage. The U.S. should lead this shift, encouraging Latin American partners to adopt similar conditional strategies to stabilize the region.
中文摘要
本文論述傳統的、採取「蠻力」的反販毒策略是無效的，且往往會反噬，反而賦予了犯罪集團力量而非消除它們。相反地，美國應採行「有條件的鎮壓」政策，即設定明確的紅線，並僅在販毒集團跨越這些紅線時（例如透過芬太尼販運或暴力行為）才施加嚴厲的壓力。這種精準的策略旨在迫使販毒集團減少其最惡劣的危害——例如敲詐勒索和環境破壞——同時將附帶的附帶損害降到最低。美國應主導這一轉變，鼓勵拉丁美洲的夥伴國家採取類似的條件式策略，以穩定整個地區。
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