The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Peru Is About to Elect Its Ninth President in a Decade
English Summary
Peru continues to exhibit extreme political volatility, having cycled through eight presidents in the last decade due to a 'presidential curse.' This instability is driven by chronic political clashes, frequent corruption scandals (such as Odebrecht and Rolexgate), and the routine use of impeachment proceedings citing 'moral incapacity.' The rapid turnover of leaders undermines institutional stability and governance predictability. For external actors, this suggests a high-risk operating environment, necessitating careful monitoring of internal political dynamics and potential disruptions to regional stability.
中文摘要
秘魯持續展現極端的政治不穩定性，在過去十年內因「總統詛咒」而更換了八位總統。這種不穩定性源於長期政治衝突、頻繁的貪腐醜聞（例如奧德布雷希特案和羅克斯蓋特案），以及常以援引「道德失能」為由進行的彈劾程序。領導層的快速更迭削弱了制度穩定性與治理的可預測性。對於外部參與者而言，這表明了一個高風險的營運環境，有必要密切監測其內部政治動態，並留意對區域穩定的潛在衝擊。
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