The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Members’ question time: Will the regime in Cuba be able to survive the current crisis?
English Summary
Cuba is currently experiencing a severe, multi-faceted crisis marked by economic collapse, acute shortages, and sustained outward migration, placing immense strain on the regime. The analysis posits that the regime's resilience is being tested by a combination of internal pressures and the ongoing constraints of the US embargo. The discussion will examine how the Cuban state is coping with these mounting pressures, paying close attention to the varying roles of external actors, including the US, China, Russia, and Europe. Ultimately, the report aims to assess the geopolitical risks for both the Cuban population and US interests, highlighting the complexity of external intervention.
中文摘要
古巴目前正經歷一場由經濟崩潰、嚴重的物資短缺和持續的外流移民所特徵的、多層面的嚴峻危機，這給政權帶來了巨大的壓力。本分析提出，政權的韌性正受到內部壓力與美國持續實施的禁運措施共同考驗。討論將探討古巴國家如何應對這些不斷累積的壓力，並特別關注包括美國、中國、俄羅斯和歐洲在內等外部參與者的不同角色。最終，本報告旨在評估對古巴人民和美國利益而言的地緣政治風險，並強調外部干預的複雜性。
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