The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How to Forecast China’s Lithography Leap: A Comparative Analysis of the Delphi Method and Crowdsourced Forecasting
English Summary
A RAND report compared the Delphi method (expert workshop) and crowdsourced forecasting to predict China's ability to produce advanced lithography equipment by 2026 and 2030. While both groups identified similar influencing factors, the Delphi group was slightly more accurate, emphasizing the short timeframe for China's technological leap. The study highlights the flexibility of both forecasting methods and recommends ongoing data collection and forecaster training for future research, informing policy decisions regarding U.S. export controls and China's semiconductor ambitions.
中文摘要
根據RAND公司的一份報告，研究人員比較了德爾菲法（專家工作坊）與群眾預測兩種方法，以預測中國大陸在2026年和2030年具備生產先進光刻設備的能力。儘管兩組預測者都識別出相似的影響因素，但德爾菲組的預測結果略為精確，並強調了中國大陸在短期內實現技術躍遷的緊迫性。本研究突顯了這兩種預測方法的靈活性，並建議持續收集數據並對預測者進行培訓，以供未來研究參考，進而為美國的出口管制政策以及中國大陸的半導體發展野心提供政策建議。
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