The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Outcome Evaluation of Los Angeles County’s Juvenile Justice Client Assessment Recommendation and Evaluation (CARE) Program
English Summary
The RAND evaluation finds that Los Angeles County's CARE Program provides crucial, holistic support to vulnerable youth in the juvenile justice system, significantly improving their long-term stability and well-being. While the program does not show a statistically significant effect on short-term recidivism, its primary value lies in generating substantial fiscal savings and improving quality-of-life outcomes, such as educational and mental health attainment. To enhance effectiveness and sustainability, the report recommends addressing systemic barriers, including strengthening data systems (e.g., using NLP) and expanding staffing capacity for resource attorneys and social workers. These improvements are critical for maximizing the program's rehabilitative impact and ensuring continued fiscal benefit.
中文摘要
蘭德研究機構的評估指出，洛杉磯縣的CARE計畫為司法體系中的弱勢青少年提供了關鍵且全面的支持，顯著改善了他們的長期穩定性與福祉。雖然該計畫在短期再犯率方面未顯示出統計學上的顯著影響，但其主要價值在於產生可觀的財政節省，並改善生活品質成果，例如教育和心理健康方面的成就。為提升計畫的有效性和永續性，報告建議解決系統性障礙，包括加強數據系統（例如使用自然語言處理，NLP）以及擴大資源律師和社工的人力資源配置。這些改善對於最大化項目的矯正影響，並確保持續的財政效益至關重要。
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