The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Putin Will Not Yield
English Summary
The analysis concludes that despite significant economic and technological strain, President Putin remains politically impervious and deeply committed to the war in Ukraine. This determination is sustained by the Kremlin's successful use of the conflict to bolster 'Putinism,' suppress dissent, and weave the war into the core narrative of Russian statehood. Because the war has become a foundational element of the regime's self-confidence and identity, the Kremlin is unlikely to make concessions or accept a negotiated settlement in the near term. Policymakers must therefore anticipate continued escalation and an unwillingness to moderate its military objectives, viewing the conflict as essential to Russia's perceived great power status.
中文摘要
分析結論指出，儘管面臨重大的經濟和技術壓力，普丁總統在政治上仍保持著難以動搖的姿態，並對烏克蘭戰爭抱持著堅定的承諾。克里姆林宮透過成功利用這場衝突，來鞏固「普丁主義」、壓制異議，並將戰爭編織成俄羅斯國家敘事的核心敘事。由於戰爭已成為政權自我信心和身份認同的基礎要素，克里姆林宮短期內不太可能做出任何讓步或接受協商解決方案。因此，政策制定者必須預期持續的升級，以及俄羅斯不願緩和其軍事目標的態度，因為他們將這場衝突視為其所謂大國地位的必要組成部分。
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