The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump and Xi Can’t Stop the U.S.-China Spiral
English Summary
The article argues that the U.S.-China relationship is structurally adversarial and cannot be resolved by high-level summits between leaders like Trump and Xi. Historically, breakthroughs required nuanced diplomacy and mutual trust, elements that are currently absent, as both leaders are ill-suited for the complex bargaining demanded by the rivalry. The analysis notes that China continues to assert its strategic independence, exemplified by its focus on partners like Russia, thereby limiting the efficacy of U.S. diplomatic efforts. Policymakers must temper expectations for a sudden breakthrough and prepare for a sustained, managed rivalry that addresses deep structural issues rather than relying on personal chemistry.
中文摘要
本文論述美中關係具有結構性對抗的本質，單靠如川普與習近平等領導人之間的峰會無法化解。歷史經驗顯示，關係的突破需要細膩的外交手腕與相互信任，而這些要素目前皆缺席，因為雙方領導人都不適合應對這場競爭所要求的複雜談判。分析指出，中國持續主張其戰略獨立性，例如其對俄羅斯等夥伴的聚焦，進而限制了美國外交努力的成效。政策制定者必須調整對突發性突破的期望，為一場持續且受控的競爭做好準備，重點應放在解決深層的結構性問題，而非寄望於個人層面的關係和氣氛。
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