The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
America’s Attrition Trap
English Summary
The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
中文摘要
本文提出，現代衝突越來越以消耗戰為主要特徵，其驅動因素源於三個戰略鴻溝：名目軍事實力與實際可用戰力之間的差異；在高度技術化的戰場中難以取得突破；以及軍事手段與明確政治目標脫節。烏克蘭和中東的證據顯示，持續的後勤供應、快速的技術適應能力，以及代理人網絡，現在比單純的軍事規模更具決定性。對於政策制定者而言，這意味著戰略重心必須從追求短暫、決定性的勝利，轉向準備應對長期、高成本的交戰，這要求我們必須著重於建立可持續的供應鏈，並明確界定具體、可實現的政治終點狀態。
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