The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Examining the Evolution of Veteran Labor Market Outcomes
English Summary
Using linked U.S. Census Bureau data, this report tracked veteran earnings over the first eight years in the civilian labor market, comparing them to non-veterans. The key finding is that veterans experienced significantly faster earnings growth—approximately 10 percentage points more—than comparable non-veterans, an advantage consistent across various demographic groups. While veterans may start with lower initial earnings, their strong growth trajectory suggests a positive long-term economic impact. Policymakers should leverage these findings to design targeted support programs for veteran transitions, though the authors recommend further research using comprehensive datasets to fully understand and maximize these career advantages.
中文摘要
本報告利用連結的美國人口普查局數據，追蹤了退伍軍人在民用勞動市場前八年的收入，並與非退伍軍人進行了比較。關鍵發現指出，退伍軍人的收入增長速度顯著快於可比較的非退伍軍人，高出約10個百分點，且此優勢在各類人口群體中均為一致。儘管退伍軍人初期收入可能較低，但其強勁的增長軌跡顯示出正面的長期經濟影響。政策制定者應利用這些發現來設計有針對性的退伍軍人過渡支持計畫，但作者建議進一步使用全面的數據集進行研究，以充分理解並最大化這些職涯優勢。
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The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
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Congress has significantly expanded presidential tariff authority by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, allowing the executive to impose up to 100% tariffs on key buyers of Russian energy and sanctions enablers. The article argues that this legislation represents a dangerous abdication of Congress's Article I authority, as it grants the executive vast, discretionary power without specifying criteria for enforcement. Historically, the executive could claim tariffs were its own doing; however, by writing and passing this new authority, Congress now owns the resulting trade policy and its economic consequences. This shift implies that future tariffs will be viewed by the public as a direct legislative action, potentially undermining the administration's credibility and creating political vulnerability.