The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Keeping the Nuclear Genie in the Bottle
English Summary
The article analyzes Finland's agreement to coordinate its conventional forces with French nuclear capabilities, clarifying that no nuclear weapons will be stationed in Finland. The author argues that increased communication between nuclear powers, rather than the deployment of weapons, is beneficial for reducing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, particularly near Russia. For Europe, the policy recommendation is a responsible middle course: strengthening non-nuclear military capabilities to deter Russia while simultaneously negotiating a stable system, such as non-aligned buffer states. This approach is presented as a diplomatic alternative to both aggressive military action and surrender.
中文摘要
本文分析了芬蘭同意將其常規部隊與法國核能力進行協調的協議，並澄清不會在芬蘭部署任何核武器。作者認為，核大國之間增加溝通，而非部署武器，更有利於降低誤判和意外升級的風險，尤其是在靠近俄羅斯邊界地區。對於歐洲而言，政策建議採取一種負責任的折衷方案：一方面加強非核軍事能力以威懾俄羅斯，另一方面同時協商建立穩定的體系，例如中立緩衝國。這種方法被提出作為一種外交替代方案，既非激進的軍事行動，亦非屈服投降。
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