The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
9/11 At 25: America Must Prepare For The Threats Ahead
English Summary
The publication argues that America's security posture must evolve significantly beyond the counter-terrorism focus established after 9/11. It posits that current threats are characterized by sophisticated great power competition, technological warfare, and systemic vulnerabilities, rather than solely relying on traditional military conflict. Key reasoning highlights the need to address emerging challenges in the cyber domain, space security, and the strategic rivalry with peer competitors. Policy implications stress the necessity of a comprehensive national resilience strategy that integrates diplomatic, economic, and technological defenses to safeguard national interests in the coming decades.
中文摘要
該出版物論點指出，美國的安全態勢必須從「反恐」的焦點，大幅進化超越九一一事件後建立的框架。文章提出，當前的威脅特徵是複雜的大國競爭、技術戰以及系統性漏洞，而非僅依賴傳統軍事衝突。其核心論點強調，必須應對網路領域、太空安全，以及與同級競爭對手的戰略競爭等新興挑戰。政策意涵則強調，有必要制定一套整合了外交、經濟和技術防禦的全面國家韌性戰略，以保障國家在未來數十年的利益。
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